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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Conversion of Loblolly pine biomass residues to bio-oil in a two-step process: Fast pyrolysis in the presence of zeolite and catalytic hydrogenation

In this work, Loblolly pine biomass residue was converted to bio-oil in a two-step process, consisting of 1) fast pyrolysis in the presence of zeolite ZSM-5 as a catalyst to produce pyrolysis oil, 2) hydrogenation of pyrolysis oil using formic acid as the hydrogen source in presence of Ru/activated carbon catalyst. Pyrolysis oils were analyzed by 13 C, 31 P and HSQC-NMR and the results revealed that the zeolite-induced catalytic fast pyrolysis process led to effective demethoxylation, producing more catechol and p-hydroxy-phenyl hydroxyl groups in the bio-oils, resulting in a decrease in the methoxyl group content by about 85 % and rich aromatic structures in the pyrolysis oils. The properties of pyrolysis oil with and without zeolite were in the bio-oil range. Hydrogenated pyrolysis oil showed that 79 % of the aromatic protons are eliminated and 87 % of protons are aliphatic in nature, with no oxygen attached to the α-carbon.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting river turbidity in Pine Island Bayou using machine learning techniques coupled with variational mode decomposition

Elevated turbidity levels pose significant public health risks by facilitating the transport of harmful pollutants, including metals, organic compounds, and pathogenic microorganisms into the surface water. These conditions create serious challenges for public recreational water use and drinking water treatment, leading to economic losses and health risks. This study utilizes water monitoring data in Pine Island Bayou, Texas, and develops a Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) model to predict turbidity using Attention-based Gated Recurrent Units with Encoder-Decoder (AT-GRU-ED) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), coupled with Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD). Compared to the model without VMD, the model demonstrates satisfactory 72-hour turbidity prediction performance, achieving MAEs of 2.60 and 3.29 NTU (reductions of 53% and 58%), RMSEs of 21.08 and 31.49 NTU (reductions of 82% and 80%), and R² values of 0.96 and 0.84 on the validation and test sets, respectively. Feature importance analysis reveals that water temperature is the dominant factor influencing seasonal turbidity patterns, while real-time hourly rainfall significantly contributes to short-term variability. Turbidity typically peaks within 48 hours after rainfall events due to lagged effects from surface runoff and upstream flow. Findings suggest suspending recreational water use and water supply pumping for three days after heavy rainfall can benefit public health and improve water treatment processes. Discharges above 100 m3/s are found to accelerate sediment dilution and transport, reducing turbidity levels more quickly after the peak. In conclusion, the proposed model demonstrates reliable 72-hour turbidity prediction, supporting decision-making for water treatment plant operations and providing early warning for public recreational water use.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Permutationally Invariant Networks for Enhanced Sampling (PINES): Discovery of Multimolecular and Solvent-Inclusive Collective Variables

The typically rugged nature of molecular free energy landscapes can frustrate efficient sampling of the thermodynamically relevant phase space due to the presence of high free energy barriers. Enhanced sampling techniques can improve phase space exploration by accelerating sampling along particular collective variables (CVs). A number of techniques exist for data-driven discovery of CVs parameterizing the important large scale motions of the system. A challenge to CV discovery is learning CVs invariant to symmetries of the molecular system, frequently rigid translation, rigid rotation, and permutational relabeling of identical particles. Of these, permutational invariance has proved a persistent challenge in frustrating the data-driven discovery of multi-molecular CVs in systems of self-assembling particles and solvent-inclusive CVs for solvated systems. In this work, we integrate Permutation Invariant Vector (PIV) featurizations with autoencoding neural networks to learn nonlinear CVs invariant to translation, rotation, and permutation, and perform interleaved rounds of CV discovery and enhanced sampling to iteratively expand sampling of configurational phase space and obtain converged CVs and free energy landscapes. Here, we demonstrate the Permutationally Invariant Network for Enhanced Sampling (PINES) approach in applications to the self-assembly of a 13-atom Argon cluster, association/dissociation of a NaCl ion pair in water, and hydrophobic collapse of a C 45 H 92 n-pentatetracontane polymer chain. We make the approach freely available as a new module within the PLUMED2 enhanced sampling libraries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pines’ demon observed as a 3D acoustic plasmon in Sr2RuO4

Abstract The characteristic excitation of a metal is its plasmon, which is a quantized collective oscillation of its electron density. In 1956, David Pines predicted that a distinct type of plasmon, dubbed a ‘demon’, could exist in three-dimensional (3D) metals containing more than one species of charge carrier 1 . Consisting of out-of-phase movement of electrons in different bands, demons are acoustic, electrically neutral and do not couple to light, so have never been detected in an equilibrium, 3D metal. Nevertheless, demons are believed to be critical for diverse phenomena including phase transitions in mixed-valence semimetals 2 , optical properties of metal nanoparticles 3 , soundarons in Weyl semimetals 4 and high-temperature superconductivity in, for example, metal hydrides 3,5–7 . Here, we present evidence for a demon in Sr 2 RuO 4 from momentum-resolved electron energy-loss spectroscopy. Formed of electrons in the β and γ bands, the demon is gapless with critical momentum q c = 0.08 reciprocal lattice units and room-temperature velocity v = (1.065 ± 0.12) × 10 5 m s −1 that undergoes a 31% renormalization upon cooling to 30 K because of coupling to the particle–hole continuum. The momentum dependence of the intensity of the demon confirms its neutral character. Our study confirms a 67-year old prediction and indicates that demons may be a pervasive feature of multiband metals.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Benefits of symbiotic ectomycorrhizal fungi to plant water relations depend on plant genotype in pinyon pine

Rhizosphere microbes, such as root-associated fungi, can improve plant access to soil resources, affecting plant health, productivity, and stress tolerance. While mycorrhizal associations are ubiquitous, plant–microbe interactions can be species specific. Here we show that the specificity of the effects of microbial symbionts on plant function can go beyond species level: colonization of roots by ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF) of the genus Geopora has opposite effects on water uptake, and stomatal control of desiccation in drought tolerant and intolerant genotypes of pinyon pine (Pinus edulis Engelm.). These results demonstrate, for the first time, that microorganisms can have significant and opposite effects on important plant functional traits like stomatal control of desiccation that are associated with differential mortality and growth in nature. They also highlight that appropriate pairing of plant genotypes and microbial associates will be important for mitigating climate change impacts on vegetation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification and quantification of lignin monomers and oligomers from reductive catalytic fractionation of pine wood with GC × GC – FID/MS

Thorough lignin characterization is vital to understand the physicochemical properties of lignin and to evaluate lignocellulose biorefinery processes. In this study, an in-depth characterization of lignin oil, obtained from reductive catalytic fractionation (RCF) of pine wood, was performed with quantitative GC × GC – FID analysis and qualitative GC × GC – MS. By utilizing high-temperature resistant column sets in the GC × GC system and by applying a derivatization step, unambiguous detection of lignin monomers, dimers, and trimers is enabled. In addition to confirm the identity of eleven monomers, corresponding to 34 wt% of the RCF lignin oil, thirty-six dimers (16 wt%) and twenty-one trimers (7 wt%) were comprehensively identified by analysis of their mass spectra and quantified by a FID, encompassing the identity of an additional 23 wt% of the RCF lignin oil. The proposed structures reveal the interlinkages present in the dimeric and trimeric oligomers, containing β-5, β-1, β–β, 5–5, and a minor fraction of β-O-4 and 4-O-5 bonds. Furthermore, aliphatic end-units in the dimeric and trimeric molecules were identified, consisting of various substituents at the C4 position, that have been previously observed in the RCF-derived lignin monomers. To reduce complexity for analysis, the RCF oil was separated into six fractions, prior to analysis. The structural motifs (inter-unit linkages and end-units) that are found in the different fractions vary significantly, such that the lignin fractions extracted in more polar solvents contained higher molecular weight fragments and more hydroxyl containing structural motifs. Additionally, the identified structures of individual dimer and trimer molecules by GC × GC align well with and further complement the recent findings from 1 H– 13 C HSQC NMR spectroscopy, demonstrating complementarity between both 2D techniques to obtain a holistic view on both the molecular structures and the distribution of bonds and end-units in RCF oil. The combination of these two techniques provides a powerful tool for future RCF and other lignin depolymerization research.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of DNA methylation‐based epigenetic age predictors in loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda )

Abstract Biological ageing is connected to life history variation across ecological scales and informs a basic understanding of age‐related declines in organismal function. Altered DNA methylation dynamics are a conserved aspect of biological ageing and have recently been modelled to predict chronological age among vertebrate species. In addition to their utility in estimating individual age, differences between chronological and predicted ages arise due to acceleration or deceleration of epigenetic ageing, and these discrepancies are linked to disease risk and multiple life history traits. Although evidence suggests that patterns of DNA methylation can describe ageing in plants, predictions with epigenetic clocks have yet to be performed. Here, we resolve the DNA methylome across CpG, CHG, and CHH‐methylation contexts in the loblolly pine tree ( Pinus taeda ) and construct epigenetic clocks capable of predicting ages in this species within 6% of its maximum lifespan. Although patterns of CHH‐methylation showed little association with age, both CpG and CHG‐methylation contexts were strongly associated with ageing, largely becoming hypomethylated with age. Among age‐associated loci were those in close proximity to malate dehydrogenase, NADH dehydrogenase, and 18S and 26S ribosomal RNA genes. This study reports one of the first epigenetic clocks in plants and demonstrates the universality of age‐associated DNA methylation dynamics which can inform conservation and management practices, as well as our ecological and evolutionary understanding of biological ageing in plants.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of cold stress on metabolic regulation in the overwintering larvae of the Chinese white pine beetle, Dendroctonus armandi

Abstract The Chinese white pine beetle, Dendroctonus armandi Tsai & Li (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is considered the most destructive forest pest in the Qinling and Bashan Mountains of China. In recent years, winter temperature has dropped in these regions, and extremely low temperatures are hard to survive for insects. Cold hardiness becomes a crucial strategy because temperature change often leads to fluctuations in insect abundance, and the metabolism rate is a key index of resistance to cold in overwintering insects. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between the change in respiratory rate and the activity of metabolism‐related mitochondrial enzymes in D. armandi larvae under cold conditions. We found that the respiratory rate decreased, and it was matched with the activity of glutamate dehydrogenase, aconitase, and lipase during overwintering. Among the various test times under cold conditions, the respiratory rate also decreased with decreasing temperature and increased under very low temperatures. At all cold stress periods, glutamate dehydrogenase and lipase showed increased activity at higher temperatures and decreased activity under lower temperatures, but the activity of NAD‐malic enzyme, NADP‐malic enzyme, mitochondrial isocitrate dehydrogenase, and aconitase were contrary. Under all low temperatures, the activity of enzymes – except for NADP‐malic enzyme, glutamate dehydrogenase, and lipase – increased in short‐term cold stress and decreased in long‐term cold stress at 4, 0, −4, −6, −8, and −10 °C. However, at −2 °C, the activity of enzymes showed a decreasing trend in short‐term treatments and an increasing trend in long‐term treatments, except for mitochondrial isocitrate dehydrogenase. The results not only improve our understanding of the metabolic mechanism of cold adaptation in D. armandi , but also provide an important experimental basis for further study and biological pest control.

Fu, Danyang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of physical, chemical, and biological ageing on the mineralization of pine wood biochar by a Streptomyces isolate

If biochar is to be used for carbon (C) management, we must understand how weathering or ageing affects biochar C mineralization. Here, we incubated aged and unaged eastern white pine wood biochar produced at 350 and 550°C with a Streptomyces isolate, a putative biochar-decomposing microbe. Ageing was accelerated via three different processes, namely, (a) physical ageing–subjecting biochar to alternating freeze-thaw and wet-dry cycles, (b) chemical ageing–treating biochar with concentrated hydrogen peroxide and (c) biological ageing–incubating biochar in the presence of nutrients and microorganisms. Elemental composition and surface chemistry (Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy) of biochar samples were compared before and after ageing. Biochar C mineralization between ageing treatments was significantly different in the case of 350°C biochar ( p value = 0.03). Among the 350°C biochars, physical ageing resulted in the greatest increase (by 103%) in biochar C mineralization ( p value = 0.05). However, in the case of 550°C biochar, ageing did not result in a significant change in biochar C mineralization ( p value = 0.40). Biochar C mineralization was positively correlated with an increase in O/C ratio post-ageing ( r s = 0.86, p value = 0.01). In the case of 350°C biochar, surface oxidation during ageing enhanced biochar degradation by the isolate. For 550°C biochar, however, ageing did not significantly increase biochar C mineralization, likely due to high condensed aromatic C content and lower surface oxidation during ageing. The results from our study suggest that low temperature aged biochar is more susceptible to biological degradation by soil microbes. These findings have implications for the use of biochar for long term C storage in soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Corrosion Studies of Pine-Derived Bio-Oil and Heavy Fuel Oil Blends

To reduce the amount of greenhouse gas produced from the combustion of petroleum fuels, renewable liquid fuels are needed. Pyrolysis of biomass provides a means to produce liquid fuels to displace current petroleum products. However, common ferrous alloys are susceptible to high corrosion rates when exposed to bio-oil. This study analyzes the effects of blending bio-oil derived from loblolly pine with heavy fuel oil added to reduce corrosion of common structural alloys. Laboratory corrosion studies of six different blends of bio-oil/heavy fuel oil were performed for 1,000 hours at 50°C. Chemical characterization was also performed to determine the total acid content of each blend. Post-exposure characterizations such as changes in weight, X-ray diffraction, dye penetrant testing, and metallography were performed to provide more insight into the corrosion mechanism of bio-oil/heavy fuel oil blends. We hypothesized that the corrosion rates of ferrous alloys would increase with an increase in bio-oil concentration. The results of these characterization and corrosion studies confirmed this hypothesis and will be reported.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Fidelity of Computational Models for the Flow of Milled Loblolly Pine: A Benchmark Study on Continuum-Mechanics Models and Discrete-Particle Models

The upstream of bioenergy industry has suffered from unreliable operations of granular biomass feedstocks in handling equipment. Computational modeling, including continuum-mechanics models and discrete-particle models, offers insightful understandings and predictive capabilities on the flow of milled biomass and can assist equipment design and optimization. This paper presents a benchmark study on the fidelity of the continuum and discrete modeling approaches for predicting granular biomass flow. We first introduce the constitutive law of the continuum-mechanics model and the contact law of the coarse-grained discrete-particle model, with model parameters calibrated against laboratory characterization tests of the milled loblolly pine. Three classical granular material flow systems (i.e., a lab-scale rotating drum, a pilot-scale hopper, and a full-scale inclined plane) are then simulated using the two models with the same initial and boundary conditions as the physical experiments. The close agreement of the numerical predictions with the experimental measurements on the hopper mass flow rate, the hopper critical outlet width, the material stopping thickness on the inclined plane, and the dynamic angle of repose, clearly indicates that the two methods can capture the critical flow behavior of granular biomass. The qualitative comparison shows that the continuum-mechanics model outperforms in parameterization of materials and wall friction, and large-scale systems, while the discrete-particle model is more preferred for discontinuous flow systems at smaller scales. Industry stakeholders can use these findings as guidance for choosing appropriate numerical tools to model biomass material flow in part of the optimization of material handling equipment in biorefineries.

Jin, Wencheng↗
DOE OSTI2021

Consumption Patterns of a Generalist Omnivore: Eastern Box Turtle Diets in the Long Island Pine Barrens

Eastern Box Turtles (Terrapene carolina) are diet generalists and as such are predicted to have diverse diets in which familiar, low-quality foods are eaten consistently at low levels, and high-quality foods are rare but eaten whenever available. Previous work showed that they feed opportunistically on seasonally available plants (shoots, leaves, flowers, and fruit), invertebrates, mushrooms, and occasionally carrion. We used fecal samples to test optimal foraging predictions relevant to diet generalists and also whether the Eastern Box Turtle diets varied seasonally in a northeastern U.S. pine-oak habitat. We found that in-depth prey species consumption patterns of six different individuals were similar to those of the sampled population overall. Leaf and stem material was consumed by 100% of the turtles in all months despite being lower-quality than other prey available. Invertebrates were consumed by at least 80% of turtles in every study period; Coleopterans were found more commonly than other invertebrates. Snails were not eaten by more than 20% of the turtles in any study period, and mushroom consumption varied from 31–75% of samples in different study periods. Monthly diet overlap was measured using both Pianka’s Index of Overlap (PIO) and the Morisita–Horn Index (MH). The PIO method indicated that the prey consumption patterns were broadly similar from June–October, while the M–H method showed that only the July vs. August comparison was highly similar. The turtle diets changed only slightly between seasons, and they conform to predictions of diet generalist models usually applied to mammals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Population Subdivision in the Gopher Frog (Rana capito) across the Fragmented Longleaf Pine-Wiregrass Savanna of the Southeastern USA

Delineating genetically distinct population segments of threatened species and quantifying population connectivity are important steps in developing effective conservation and management strategies aimed at preventing extinction. The gopher frog (Rana capito) is a xeric-adapted, pond-breeding species endemic to the Gulf and Atlantic coastal plains of the southeastern United States. This species has experienced extensive habitat loss and fragmentation in the formerly widespread longleaf pine-wiregrass savanna where it lives, resulting in individual abundance declines and population extinctions throughout its range. We used individual-based clustering methods along with Bayesian inference of historical migration based on almost 1500 multilocus microsatellite genotypes to examine genetic structure in this taxon. Clustering analyses identified panhandle and peninsular populations in Florida as distinct genetic clusters separated by the Aucilla River, consistent with the division between the Coastal Plain and peninsular mitochondrial lineages, respectively. Analysis of historical migration indicated an east–west population divergence event followed by immigration to the east. Together, our results indicate that the genetically distinct Coastal Plain and peninsular Florida lineages should be considered separately for conservation and management purposes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Co-Firing of Pine Biomass and Waste Coal in 100 and 600 MW Power Plants: A Sustainable Approach to Reduce GHG Emissions

Climate change is a global issue that has gained much attention recently. Co-firing biomass with coal/waste coal reduces the electricity sector’s GHG emissions sustainably. This study uses commercial software to model waste coal and biomass co-firing in 100 MW and 600 MW power plants. The objective is to assess the effects of fluid types (subcritical and supercritical), plant capacities (100 MW and 600 MW), boiler types (pulverized coal and circulating fluidized bed boilers), biomass and waste coal co-firing ratios (0:100, 20:80, 40:60, 60:40, 80:20, and 100:0), and carbon capture and storage efficiencies (0%, 90%, 95%, and 97%) on performance parameters such as net plant efficiency, heat rate, net plant CO2 and SO2, and particulate matter emissions. The feedstocks selected for this investigation include anthracite waste coal and loblolly pine biomass. As the biomass fraction increases from 0% to 100%, co-fired power plants net efficiency increases by 3–8%. Supercritical plants had a 6% higher net plant efficiency than the subcritical plants. The study found that the biomass’s high heating value decreased the fuel flow rate and reduced plant CO2 emissions by 10–16%. With 100% biomass power plant feed and 90% carbon capture and storage efficiency, CO2 emissions drop by 83% and SO2 and PM emissions drop to zero.

Bhoi, Prakashbhai R. (ORCID:0000000333104888)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic infrared gas analysis from longleaf pine fuel beds burned in a wind tunnel: observation of phenol in pyrolysis and combustion phases

Pyrolysis is the first step in a series of chemical and physical processes that produce flammable organic gases from wildland fuels that can result in a wildland fire. We report results using a new time-resolved Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) method that correlates the measured FTIR spectrum with an infrared thermal image sequence, enabling the identification and quantification of gases within different phases of the fire process. The flame from burning fuel beds composed of pine needles (Pinus palustris) and mixtures of sparkleberry, fetterbush, and inkberry plants was the natural heat source for pyrolysis. Extractive gas samples were analyzed and identified in both static and dynamic modes synchronized to thermal infrared imaging: a total of 29 gases were identified including small alkanes, alkenes, aldehydes, nitrogen compounds, and aromatics, most previously measured by FTIR in wildland fires. This study presents one of the first identifications of phenol associated with both pre-combustion and combustion phases using ca. 1 Hz temporal resolution. Preliminary results indicate ~2.5× greater phenol emissions from sparkleberry and inkberry compared to fetterbush, with differing temporal profiles.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long-Term Corrosion Studies Of Pine Derived Bio-Oil And Blends With Heavy Fuel Oil

Biomass derived liquid fuels offer a means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared to those produced by combustion of petroleum derived liquid fuels. However, the corrosivity of bio-oils toward the less expensive structural materials creates a material selection problem for designers of storage tanks and combustion systems. Samples of candidate structural materials are being exposed for thousands of hours in multiple fast pyrolysis bio-oils and conditions to evaluate the corrosion resistance of these materials. One method to mitigate the corrosivity of bio-oils and speed their adoption, while also decreasing the pollution issues associated with low quality petroleum derived fuels, is to utilize blends of bio-oil and heavy fuel oil in engines currently solely burning a petroleum-based fuel. In addition to the corrosion studies conducted in 100% bio-oil, studies were also conducted with blends of the fast pyrolysis bio-oil produced from pine tree components with a heavy fuel oil that is used in ocean-going ships. This bio-oil had a very high carboxylic acid content which made it very corrosive to carbon and 2¼ Cr-1 Mo steel and even 409 stainless steel. The heavy fuel oil was not corrosive to carbon steel, but its sulfur content makes it a significant pollution producer and particularly undesirable for use near coastlines. Corrosion tests were conducted with the individual components and with various blends of the two liquid fuels. Studies showed a significantly lower corrosivity of the blends than would be projected assuming linear mixing behavior. Adoption of such blends holds the potential to reduce production of sulfur-containing exhaust gases as well as carbon dioxide from non-renewable fuels.

Keiser, Jim↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimizing Process Conditions during Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis of Pine with Pt/TiO 2 —Improving the Viability of a Multiple-Fixed-Bed Configuration

Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) has been identified as a promising pathway for the production of renewable fuels and co-products. However, continued technology development is needed to increase process efficiency and reduce process costs. This report builds upon previous research in which a bifunctional metal–acid Pt/TiO 2 catalyst was utilized in a fixed-bed reactor operated with co-fed H 2 to improve product yield and reduce coke generation compared to conventional CFP methods. Here, we report further process optimization, in which we achieved similar CFP oil carbon efficiency (>35%) and CFP oil oxygen content (<20 wt %) to our previous report while reducing catalyst and equipment costs by increasing time-on-stream between regenerations by 40–95% and decreasing required regeneration time by more than a factor of 2. These process improvements were achieved by conducting parameter sweeps to determine optimum conditions for CFP and regeneration with key variables including pyrolysis temperature, catalytic upgrading temperature, hydrogen partial pressure, and regeneration oxygen concentration. Coupled with comprehensive oil analyses, these data provide foundational insight into the deoxygenation and coking chemistries for CFP under realistic process conditions while also advancing the technology through applied engineering.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗