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At least 127 records · Page 7

Detecting Process Equipment Failures Using Acoustic Data and Machine Learning

Nuclear power plant (NPP) process equipment such as fans, motors, valves, and pumps generate frequent or continuous noise, and deviations from the normal operational sounds made by this equipment can indicate potential issues. These deviations can be identified via automated acoustic anomaly detection, which involves using acoustic sensors (i.e., microphones) alongside detection algorithms to continuously monitor for changes in acoustic signatures. This task is made challenging by the substantial background noise that exists, such as operators opening and closing doors, manipulating valves, and conversing—in addition to typical plant noises. In collaboration with a nuclear power utility partner, this effort assessed the efficacy of acoustic anomaly detection when using a specific acoustic sensor that compresses data into a fixed set of features that are transferable over a standard Internet of Things communication protocol, thereby improving usability but potentially degrading detection performance. Two methods of performing automated acoustic anomaly detection were evaluated: one-class support vector machine (OC-SVM) and isolation forest (iForest). To enable the use of high-quality acoustic data encompassing both normal and anomalous conditions, the study utilized the publicly available Malfunctioning Industrial Machine Investigation and Inspection dataset, which includes real measured acoustic sensor data for a range of equipment types, model numbers, and signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), along with a benchmark set of detection results. Using this dataset, the methods were tested and then compared against the benchmark results. The results indicated that although the specific acoustic sensor did not enable as rich a feature set extraction, the proposed methods with the limited feature set performed just as well. This provides solid justification for both the methods and the use of the proposed acoustic sensor.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Power increases using wind direction spatial filtering for wind farm control: Evaluation using FLORIS, modified for dynamic settings

As wind energy plays a growing role in the energy sector, new methods for controlling wind turbines and wind farms to maximize performance are garnering industry interest. A developing body of research treats the entire wind farm as a control system, with individual turbines acting as agents in a network, allowing farm-level objectives to be considered. Two promising developments in this research are wake steering control, which seeks to increase the power generated at a wind farm by directing the wakes of upstream turbines away from downstream ones, and communication-based spatial filtering, which seeks to improve the quality of information used by turbine- and farm-level controllers by combining measurements of the wind field collected at the individual turbines. The latter method has been shown to improve the estimates of wind direction at the turbines; however, the resulting potential for increased power capture warrants further investigation. With this paper, we begin to address this gap by combining wake steering with wind direction spatial filtering. To do so, we present a preliminary method for assessing the power capture of dynamic controllers using wind farm codes designed for time-averaged simulation. This allows us to generate results much more rapidly than would be possible using high-fidelity wind farm simulators and may be useful in many wind farm control design applications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Assessments of advanced reactor heat supply to high temperature industrial unit operations: Heat Engines and Heat Pumps

In this report, the feasibility of employing Advanced Nuclear Reactors to supply the necessary high-quality heat to Industrial Processes is investigated. As a first step, the most relevant industrial applications that could benefit from this coupling were identified. Four industries including petroleum refining (distillation, catalyst regeneration, hydro-steam cracking), chemical polymers, steel manufacturing (metals annealing/soaking) and cement manufacturing (calcination of limestone and dolomite industries) were considered. An overview of the heat duties, i.e., the temperatures and thermal powers required by representative plants of the different processes, was provided. Secondly, the thermodynamic conditions of the steam produced by representative designs of Advanced Reactor concepts (Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors, Molten Salt Reactors, and High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors) were summarized. The comparison between the requirements of the industrial processes and the capabilities of the candidate nuclear power plants showed that only a few processes could benefit from the coupling. Although Advanced Reactors operate at higher temperatures than Light Water Reactors, the thermodynamic conditions of the generated steam flow rates are generally not suitable for the selected applications. At the same time, data indicate that most of the processes can be suitably supplied if the temperature of steam is elevated to 900 °C. One possible solution to boost the quality of the steam from the nuclear island involves the use of a heat pump. Based on a technology similar to that found in refrigerators and air conditioners, heat pumps extract heat from a source, elevate its temperature and transfer it to where it is needed. A simple numerical example illustrating the viability of this method is described. Specifically, the energy conversion cycle of a conventional Pressurized Water Reactor was extended to incorporate a compressor to raise the heating value of the steam produced by the reactor. Two reference configurations, i.e., one where the industrial process coupled to the nuclear power plant exhausts saturated liquid and the other where it exhausts saturated steam, were considered. The thermal efficiencies achievable by increasing the heating value of the reactor steam in this way are significantly greater than by direct electric heating.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Marine Renewable Energy Applications for Restorative Ocean Farming: Kelp

Kelp farming and kelp forest restoration have both been proposed as a solution to locally decrease the impacts of ocean acidification and eutrophication, often with co-benefits to other forms of aquaculture and mariculture. Compared to global markets, the kelp industry in the United States is still in its early phases, with the first commercial kelp farm founded in Casco Bay, Maine in 2010. Since then, interest and effort in kelp production has been increasing, with farms now present in Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New York, Washington, and Alaska. Many research projects are underway in the United States to explore benefits of 3D ocean farming, tackle logistical problems of working in the ocean, autonomous farming, and explore viable end uses for kelp products. In seaweed farming, to remove the stored carbon or excess nutrients from the system, the biomass needs to be harvested at the optimal time to avoid the release of CO 2 that comes with decomposition. Timing of the harvest is also important for maximum crop yield, which can vary based on the final product. Additional monitoring needs can include a variety of water quality metrics, growth measurements, and visuals to ensure the health of the farm, comply with permits, support operations and maintenance functions. The variables measured may vary by desired end use of the product, location of farm, and operational design. Monitoring all of these parameters requires specialized devices that can be costly and challenging to maintain. Monitoring devices often face power and logistical constraints that could prevent kelp farmers from adopting these technologies or receiving accurate, efficient monitoring to assess ecosystem benefits and valuation. Marine energy has been identified as a possible power source for these devices. This project investigates the power needs for conducting kelp farm environmental monitoring compared with the available marine energy resource to evaluate if locally generated ocean energy could provide a solution to these monitoring challenges and benefit kelp farmers. This process was structured as follows: 1. Define what data is needed for farmers and their communities through desk research and interviews with end users. 2. Identify sensors and power requirements currently in use or available for commercial purchase. 3. Analyze current kelp and other mariculture farm locations for the potential marine energy resource. 4. Analyze farm designs and associated structures to make recommendations for marine energy design. 5. Quantify value that investment in sensors could provide in terms of carbon credit possibilities.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

FAST-1.0 Software Acceptance Testing Report

The purpose of this document is to detail the software testing of FAST-1.0 through unit, integration, and assessment tests. More than 400 tests were designed to provide coverage of the requirements for FAST-1.0. These requirements were developed in the NRC Statement of Work (SOW) for NRC Agreement Number NRC-HQ-25-14-D-001 and are transcribed to this document as part of the Software Quality Assurance Plan for the FAST Code System, PNNL-28767. FAST 1.0 represents the merger of the FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN codes and as such FAST-1.0 performs steady state and transient fuel performance calculations described below. FAST-1.0 calculates the steady state response of light-water reactor fuel rods during long-term burnup. The code calculates temperature, pressure, and deformation of a fuel rod as functions of time-dependent fuel rod power and coolant boundary conditions. The phenomena modeled by the code include: 1) heat conduction through fuel and cladding to the coolant; 2) cladding elastic and plastic deformation; 3) fuel-cladding mechanical interaction; 4) fission gas release from the fuel and rod internal pressure; and 5) cladding oxidation. FAST is used to perform independent calculations for regulatory evaluations of fuel performance under normal operation and anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs). FAST calculates the temperature and deformation history of a fuel rod as a function of time-dependent fuel rod power and coolant boundary conditions. The phenomena modeled by FAST include: 1) heat conduction; 2) heat transfer from cladding to coolant; 3) elastic-plastic fuel and cladding deformation; 4) cladding oxidation; 5) fission gas release; and 6) fuel rod gas pressure. FAST code assessment, development and maintenance drive a significant portion of the NRC fuel research activities and the tools are used in a substantial number of regulatory products. Given the centrality of the FAST code to the effectiveness of fuel research, it is critical to assess, develop and maintain this tool.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Describing Function Analysis of Transformer Magnetizing Inductance for Direct Power Control of Back-to-Back Modular Multilevel Converters with Advanced Grid Support

This paper provides a detailed investigation into the application of describing function-based analysis for assessing transformer magnetizing inductance and its impact on system performance. The focus is on a back-to-back modular multilevel converter architecture, designed to interconnect systems operating at different frequencies. The study explores the implementation of a Direct Power Control strategy, examining its effects on transformer magnetizing inductance saturation and offering effective mitigation techniques. Furthermore, the integration of advanced grid support functionalities is highlighted, demonstrating how these enhancements bolster the converter's ability to improve grid stability and power quality, positioning it as a robust solution for modern power systems. The proposed approach is validated through extensive computer simulations based MAT LAB/Simulink domain, supported by significant case study results, confirming its practical effectiveness.

back-to-back modular multilevel converters (B2B- M↗

Developing Renewable Energy Applications for Water Treatment Technologies and Transmission

The need for smaller treatment facilities for more isolated or rural municipal entities and industrial water treatment facilities continues to grow. From environmental justice and energy needs in remote communities that have never been serviced by larger scale utilities to smaller onsite treatment requirements to meet discharge regulations, energy efficient treatment systems that can leverage renewable energy sources can be an important asset to owners. Climate change and population dynamics have changed the needs for distributed water treatment systems and the manner in which they function. New treatment technologies that can operate under dynamic conditions and leverage variable energy sources (e.g., renewable energy, RE) can provide substantial efficiencies and cost savings. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is embarking on research projects that will perform multi-scale studies to investigate treatment technologies on varying source water quality that can operate under unsteady state flow conditions (timing) in response to energy availability, supply, and demand. A pilot-scale system will be built to assess modularity and scaling of treatment system operating conditions and performance. Modeling will also be used to determine feasibility and integration into grid emulation platforms to understand the use and value of operation with RE. Optimization will be completed for the treatment and distribution systems to document strengths and weaknesses of using RE power sources. Results of this effort will advance dynamic water treatment understanding under variable conditions and integration of RE sources to power these systems. This will lead to further decarbonization of municipal and private treatment facilities while supporting a paradigm shift in water treatment process operation and system design to achieve net-zero goals and move toward energy-sensitive resilient water treatment systems.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Physics-Informed Sparse Gaussian Process for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Large-Scale Power System with Dynamic PVs and Loads

This work proposes a physics-informed sparse Gaussian process (SGP) for probabilistic stability assessment of large-scale power systems in the presence of uncertain dynamic PVs and loads. The differential and algebraic equations considering uncertainties from dynamic PVs and loads are reformulated to a nonlinear mapping relationship that allows the application of SGP. Thanks to the nonparametric characteristic of Gaussian process, the proposed framework does not require distributions of uncertain inputs and this distinguishes it from existing approaches. As the original Gaussian process is not scalable to large-scale systems with high dimensional uncertain inputs, this paper develops the SGP with a stochastic variational inference technique. It leads to approximately two orders of complex reduction. A data pre-processing step is also introduced to tackle the coexistence of stable and unstable cases by sample clustering and constructing separate SGPs. The probabilistic transient stability index is analyzed to assess system stability under different uncertain dynamics loads and PVs. Comparisons are performed with the sampling-based, the polynomial chaos expansion-based, and traditional Gaussian process-based methods on the modified IEEE 118-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems under various scenarios, including different levels of uncertainties and the existence of nonlinear correlations among dynamic PVs. The impacts of data quality and quantity issues are also investigated. It is shown that the proposed SGP achieves significantly improved computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy with a limited number of data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Open data sets for assessing photovoltaic system reliability

Photovoltaic (PV) systems have become a cornerstone of renewable energy strategies, particularly due to the significant reduction in solar power costs over the past decade. However, the long-term reliability of PV installations presents a persistent challenge, requiring the development of advanced monitoring and predictive maintenance strategies. A wide range of data types is used to evaluate the health of PV systems, including environmental conditions, electrical performance, and inspection imagery. These data enable methodologies such as machine learning (ML) models for lifetime prediction and computer vision techniques for defect detection. However, the acquisition of high-quality and comprehensive data is difficult, particularly in terms of long-term consistency and data variety. Publicly available data sets serve as valuable resources for addressing these challenges, but they often suffer from fragmentation and are difficult to access. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing open-source data sets related to PV degradation, analyzing their features, functionalities, and potential applications. We categorize these data sets based on the specific aspects of PV system information they cover, such as environmental conditions, operational monitoring, image inspection and module materials, and propose relevant tools and ML models for processing them. In addition, we propose practices for future data collection and usage, while also discussing potential directions in data-driven research. Our aim is to enhance data utilization and publication among researchers and industry professionals, promoting a deeper understanding of the role of data in enhancing the performance and durability of PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Cost Estimation Methodology for NETL Techno-economic Assessments

This Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies (QGESS) summarizes the methodology employed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in calculating plant costs in its techno-economic studies, such as the Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Systems series of reports. It also outlines the approach used to calculate the cost of electricity (COE) or cost of product (COP) metrics by which NETL estimates the impact of technology options. These metrics and a clear understanding of the methodology used are essential in allowing different plant technologies to be compared on a similar basis. These guidelines were initially developed for power producing plants, although they can be applied to a variety of different revenue generating plants (e.g., coal to liquids, syngas generation, hydrogen) by substituting the industrial product quantity for the electrical quantity in the equations. The tables contained in this QGESS have been expanded upon relative to previous versions to include values to assume for several industries.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Software Quality Assurance for EBR-II Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD)

The Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) is an ongoing DOE project on archival of the EBR-II metal-alloy fuel irradiation experiments. As part of its use in support of license applications, the Quality Assurance Program Plan (QAPP) was drafted and endorsed by NRC in an effort to demonstrate its compliance with regulatory expectations. Software Quality Assurance (SQA) for the physics portion of FIPD is intended to qualify the calculated quantities such as fuel and cladding temperatures, neutron fluence and axially varying burnup estimates for irradiated fuel elements. This report covers the initial evaluation of SQA status of three neutron physics and thermo-fluid codes (REBUS, RCT and SE2RCT) that form the basis of calculated quantities for as-irradiated characteristics of the tested metallic fuel elements. The report also introduces an SQA plan to address the identified deficiencies. The REBUS, RCT, and SE2RCT codes are all part of the Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) code system. There is considerable knowledge and experience on REBUS and RCT but relatively less on SE2RCT. During FY2021, efforts focused on an assessment of how the data in the EBR-II Physics and Analysis DataBase (PADB) is generated with SE2RCT and used in FIPD. Additional tasks included considerations of uncertainties for power estimates in REBUS and RCT calculations and their impact on the combined RCT methodology. The RCT software usage in FIPD was assessed this year and the input/output details studied. A “requirements” document was created that identifies the key features of the RCT software being used in FIPD that need to have SQA documentation. A brief discussion on the history of RCT and its input is included in this report along with the basic SQA roadmap laid out in the requirements document. The SE2RCT software usage in FIPD is still being studied noting that there is no current manual. As part of the work done this year, two bugs were identified in the SE2RCT software which have a minor impact on the accuracy of the results it produces. No requirements document has been created, but one identified feature of SE2RCT being used that needs verification was its fuel pin temperature calculation. The work completed this year confirms that the approximations which will be included in the software verification report for SE2RCT are accurate. In addition to software quality assurance work for RCT and SE2RCT, an automated verification framework is proposed to simplify the software quality assurance process. The purpose of this framework is to streamline code verification and documentation while minimizing repetitive tasks for code developers and reviewers. The reduction of repeated input (between reference solution, software, and documentation input) throughout the SQA process reduces potential for human errors during the preparation of the supporting software quality records. The automation of the verification and documentation process proposed for this project leverages the existing verification structure already in place for the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Real-Time Health Monitoring for Gas Turbine Components Using Online Learning and High-Dimensional Data (Final Report)

Capital-intensive turbomachinery, such as gas turbines and combined cycle plants, are constantly being monitored for performance anomalies, faults, and physical degradation. Although these power-generating assets are equipped with hundreds of sensors, existing monitoring tools can only handle moderate-sized data. As a result, only a handful of aggregate metrics are used to monitor machine health. At the same time, developing advanced tools suitable for large datasets have been restricted by the lack of appropriate data. The objective of this proposal was to demonstrate a Big Data analytics framework for fault detection and diagnosis in gas turbine applications. We develop a predictive analytics framework methodology guided by these experimental data, industrial data from our collaborators, and physics-based models with engineering domain knowledge. Our analytics framework consists of four key components: (1) a data curation process that addresses data storage, data quality assessments, and integrity checks, (2) a feature engineering component that utilizes statistical methods and transformation algorithms guided by physics-based models to extract high-fidelity fault features that can be leveraged for fault detection and classifying fault severities, (3) a Machine Learning-based fault detection and diagnostics algorithms for detecting operational and hardware faults in the combustion and the turbines section. We utilize two industry-class gas turbine component test rigs to generate first of its kind data for critical gas turbine faults with varying severity levels. Advanced gas turbine test facilities will be interrogated using state-of-the-art instrumentation techniques to build fault signatures and data trends for key combustor and turbine faults. Data generated from a combustor test rig (Georgia Tech) and a turbine test rig (Penn State) during both normal operation and with seeded faults serve as the basis for the Big Data sets. The test conditions in the two test facilities include common, critical events that occur in the operation. Utilizing the combustor test rig, we examine two common combustor faults: lean blowout and centerbody degradation. For the turbine section we develop analytic models for monitoring cooling faults in the gas turbine.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Real-Time Health Monitoring for Gas Turbine Components Using Online Learning and High-Dimensional Data

Capital-intensive turbomachinery, such as gas turbines and combined cycle plants, are constantly being monitored for performance anomalies, faults, and physical degradation. Although these power-generating assets are equipped with hundreds of sensors, existing monitoring tools can only handle moderate-sized data. As a result, only a handful of aggregate metrics are used to monitor machine health. At the same time, developing advanced tools suitable for large datasets have been restricted by the lack of appropriate data. The objective of this proposal was to demonstrate a Big Data analytics framework for fault detection and diagnosis in gas turbine applications. We develop a predictive analytics framework methodology guided by these experimental data, industrial data from our collaborators, and physics-based models with engineering domain knowledge. Our analytics framework consists of four key components (1) a data curation process that addresses data storage, data quality assessments, and integrity checks, (2) a feature engineering component that utilizes statistical methods and transformation algorithms guided by physics-based models to extract high-fidelity fault features that can be leveraged for fault detection and classifying fault severities, (3) a Machine Learning-based fault detection and diagnostics algorithms for detecting operational and hardware faults in the combustion and the turbines section. We utilize two industry-class gas turbine component test rigs to generate first of its kind data for critical gas turbine faults with varying severity levels. Advanced gas turbine test facilities will be interrogated using state-of-the-art instrumentation techniques to build fault signatures and data trends for key combustor and turbine faults. Data generated from a combustor test rig (Georgia Tech) and a turbine test rig (Penn State) during both normal operation and with seeded faults serve as the basis for the Big Data sets. The test conditions in the two test facilities include common, critical events that occur in the operation. Utilizing the combustor test rig, we examine two common combustor faults: lean blowout and centerbody degradation. For the turbine section we develop analytic models for monitoring cooling faults in the gas turbine

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Microscopy modality transfer of steel microstructures: Inferring scanning electron micrographs from optical microscopy using generative AI

Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) is resource intensive, which limits its throughput in some applications. As an alternative, we propose applying computer vision and machine learning to generate high-quality synthetic SEM micrographs from micrographs obtained using light optical microscopy (LOM). Working with a correlated LOM/SEM dataset of dual-phase steel images, we test generative models of various architectures, including encoder-decoder networks, generative adversarial networks (GANs), and diffusion-based models. We find that the diffusion models significantly outperform other methods on both qualitative and quantitative assessments, while preserving key metallurgical meaning. This work establishes diffusion as the state-of-the-art for microscopy modality transfer and demonstrates the potential of AI-powered microscopy to enhance LOM with micron scale structural recreation.

Computer vision↗

Processability and Material Behavior of NiTi Shape Memory Alloys Using Wire Laser-Directed Energy Deposition (WL-DED)

Utilizing additive manufacturing (AM) techniques with shape memory alloys (SMAs) like NiTi shows great promise for fabricating highly flexible and functionally superior 3D metallic structures. Compared to methods relying on powder feedstocks, wire-based additive manufacturing processes provide a viable alternative, addressing challenges such as chemical composition instability, material availability, higher feedstock costs, and limitations on part size while simplifying process development. This study presented a novel approach by thoroughly assessing the printability of Ni-rich Ni55.94Ti (Wt. %) SMA using the wire laser-directed energy deposition (WL-DED) technique, addressing the existing knowledge gap regarding the laser wire-feed metal additive manufacturing of NiTi alloys. For the first time, the impact of processing parameters—specifically laser power (400–1000 W) and transverse speed (300–900 mm/min)—on single-track fabrication using NiTi wires in the WL-DED process was examined. An optimal range of process parameters was determined to achieve high-quality prints with minimal defects, such as wire dripping, stubbing, and overfilling. Building upon these findings, we printed five distinct cubes, demonstrating the feasibility of producing nearly porosity-free specimens. Notably, this study investigated the effect of energy density on the printed part density, impurity pick-up, transformation temperature, and hardness of the manufactured NiTi cubes. The results from the cube study demonstrated that varying energy densities (46.66–70 J/mm3) significantly affected the quality of the deposits. Lower to intermediate energy densities achieved high relative densities (>99%) and favorable phase transformation temperatures. In contrast, higher energy densities led to instability in melt pool shape, increased porosity, and discrepancies in phase transformation temperatures. These findings highlighted the critical role of precise parameter control in achieving functional NiTi parts and offer valuable insights for advancing AM techniques in fabricating larger high-quality NiTi components. Additionally, our research highlighted important considerations for civil engineering applications, particularly in the development of seismic dampers for energy dissipation in structures, offering a promising solution for enhancing structural performance and energy management in critical infrastructure.

Dabbaghi, Hediyeh↗

Melt Pool and Heat Treatment Optimization for the Fabrication of High-Strength and High-Toughness Additively Manufactured 4340 Steel

Additively manufactured (AM) components offer superior design flexibility compared to their conventionally manufactured counterparts, and optimizing processing parameters is key to achieving high-quality depositions with desirable and predictable mechanical properties. This study was focused on 4340 steel fabricated using laser powder bed fusion (LPBF), and 42 laser power and scan speed combinations have been systematically investigated to determine an optimized melt pool geometry that would ensure fully-dense parts. The AM material was compared with a wrought 4340 equivalent and studied in two customized heat treated conditions, optimized for strength and toughness, respectively. The microstructures of the as-fabricated and heat treated AM and wrought materials were characterized to assess differences introduced by the layer-by-layer fabrication process and subsequent heat treatment. Tensile properties of both materials were also evaluated and demonstrate that the AM materials offer equal or superior properties compared to the wrought equivalents. Differences in fracture surface morphologies indicate the distinct failure mechanisms associated with the materials’ characteristic microstructures, and the role of inclusions in the failures was studied to elucidate these differences. Complementary to the experimental investigations, the dataset was leveraged to make recommendations for future design of experiments to optimize AM build parameters in other material systems. A statistical Monte Carlo analysis was used to predict the interpolation error produced using reduced datasets and to enable informed processing parameters selection. These findings are discussed to make recommendations for the use of AM materials for high-integrity structural applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improving AlphaFold2-based protein tertiary structure prediction with MULTICOM in CASP15

Since the 14th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP14), AlphaFold2 has become the standard method for protein tertiary structure prediction. One remaining challenge is to further improve its prediction. We developed a new version of the MULTICOM system to sample diverse multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) and structural templates to improve the input for AlphaFold2 to generate structural models. The models are then ranked by both the pairwise model similarity and AlphaFold2 self-reported model quality score. The top ranked models are refined by a novel structure alignment-based refinement method powered by Foldseek. Moreover, for a monomer target that is a subunit of a protein assembly (complex), MULTICOM integrates tertiary and quaternary structure predictions to account for tertiary structural changes induced by protein-protein interaction. The system participated in the tertiary structure prediction in 2022 CASP15 experiment. Our server predictor MULTICOM_refine ranked 3rd among 47 CASP15 server predictors and our human predictor MULTICOM ranked 7th among all 132 human and server predictors. The average GDT-TS score and TM-score of the first structural models that MULTICOM_refine predicted for 94 CASP15 domains are ~0.80 and ~0.92, 9.6% and 8.2% higher than ~0.73 and 0.85 of the standard AlphaFold2 predictor respectively.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The good, the bad, and the future: Systematic review identifies best use of biomass to meet air quality and climate policies in California

Abstract California has large and diverse biomass resources and provides a pertinent example of how biomass use is changing and needs to change, in the face of climate mitigation policies. As in other areas of the world, California needs to optimize its use of biomass and waste to meet environmental and socioeconomic objectives. We used a systematic review to assess biomass use pathways in California and the associated impacts on climate and air quality. Biomass uses included the production of renewable fuels, electricity, biochar, compost, and other marketable products. For those biomass use pathways recently developed, information is available on the effects—usually beneficial—on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and there is some, but less, published information on the effects on criteria pollutants. Our review identifies 34 biomass use pathways with beneficial impacts on either GHG or pollutant emissions, or both—the “good.” These included combustion of forest biomass for power and conversion of livestock‐associated biomass to biogas by anaerobic digestion. The review identified 13 biomass use pathways with adverse impacts on GHG emissions, criteria pollutant emissions, or both—the “bad.” Wildfires are an example of one out of eight pathways which were found to be bad for both climate and air quality, while only two biomass use pathways reduced GHG emissions relative to an identified counterfactual but had adverse air quality impacts. Issues of high interest for the “future” included land management to reduce fire risk, future policies for the dairy industries, and full life‐cycle analysis of biomass production and use.

Agriculture↗