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At least 127 records · Page 7

The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP)

Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These and other influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue and potentially strengthen in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread of near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emission pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of 5, from −0.3 to −1.5 W m−2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealised aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (Africa and the Middle East, East Asia, North America and Europe, and South Asia) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission locations and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the shared socioeconomic pathways and are intended to be performed with 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable the analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes, storms, and air quality.

anthropogenic aerosol emissions↗

Effects of thermomechanical processing on the microstructure and mechanical properties of Nb-1Zr-C alloys

A systematic study to evaluate the effects of thermomechanical processing on the microstructure and mechanical properties of Nb-1Zr alloy sheet containing 0.06 and 0.1 wt.%C (PWC-11) was conducted and compared to the results of Nb-1Zr. Coarse orthorhombic Nb2C precipitates were present in all the cast, extruded and cold rolled Nb-Zr samples containing C. After high temperature (greater than 0.5 T(sub m)) exposure (with or without applied stress), the Nb2C transforms to very fine and extremely stable FCC (Zr, Nb)C dispersoid, resulting in a highly creep resistant material. Only ZrO2 precipitates were found in Nb-1Zr. The creep strength of the 0.06C and the 0.1C carbide strengthened alloys were much superior to Nb-1Zr. At 1350 K the strength of the 0.06C alloy was about three times that of Nb-1Zr, while the 0.1C alloy had about five times the creep stress capability of Nb-1Zr. The tensile strength, long term creep strength, and stability of the microstructure of the PWC-11 sheet appear to be independent of the number of 1900 K extrusions performed prior to cold rolling. The microhardness of these single, double and triple extnided PWC-11 sheets also were comparable. The tensile strength of PWC-11 and Nb-1Zr at room temperature and 1350 K were comparable.

Titran, Robert H.↗

Mid-Latitude Freshwater Availability Reduced by Projected Vegetation Responses to Climate Change

Plants are expected to generate more global-scale runoff under increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations through their influence on surface resistance to evapotranspiration. Recent studies using Earth System Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ostensibly reaffirm this result, further suggesting that plants will ameliorate the dire reductions in water availability projected by other studies that use aridity metrics. Here we complicate this narrative by analysing the change in precipitation partitioning to plants, runoff and storage in multiple Earth system models under both high carbon dioxide concentrations and warming. We show that projected plant responses directly reduce future runoff across vast swaths of North America, Europe and Asia because bulk canopy water demands increase with additional vegetation growth and longer and warmer growing seasons. These runoff declines occur despite increased surface resistance to evapotranspiration and vegetation total water use efficiency, even in regions with increasing or unchanging precipitation. We demonstrate that constraining the large uncertainty in the multimodel ensemble with regional-scale observations of evapotranspiration partitioning strengthens these results. We conclude that terrestrial vegetation plays a large and unresolved role in shaping future regional freshwater availability, one that will not ubiquitously ameliorate future warming-driven surface drying.

Mankin, Justin S.↗

Model Performance in Simulating the Mid-Holocene Green Sahara

The Green Sahara Period, spanning about 11,500 to 5,000 years ago, offers an opportunity to test the ability of climate models to simulate large-scale changes in northern African climate through the strengthening of the West African Monsoon. In this study, we evaluate the performance of four models in simulating the mid-Holocene (6,000 BP), namely – EC-Earth, iCESM, CCSM4-Toronto, and the GISS ModelE2.1-G. Two scenarios are considered for each model – a standard PMIP scenario simulated with the mid-Holocene orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations with vegetation prescribed to pre-industrial conditions, as well as a Green-Sahara scenario which additionally considers factors such as enhanced vegetation, reduced dust, presence of lakes, and land and soil feedbacks. All mid-Holocene scenarios capture an increase in monsoonal precipitation in northern Africa. However, a comparison of the two mid-Holocene scenarios reveals significantly higher precipitation in northern Africa for all the Green-Sahara scenarios relative to the PMIP scenarios – an observation consistent across all models. Accompanied by a strengthened Saharan Heat Low, these changes in the West African Monsoon are also linked to polar amplification, a stronger Indian Summer Monsoon and alterations to the Walker circulation. Model results are in agreement with pollen-based SAT records, multi-proxy SST records and African lake level records. This comparison indicates that a realistic simulation of the mid-Holocene Green Sahara requires consideration of multiple factors in addition to orbital and greenhouse gas forcings.

Green Sahara Period↗

An oxide dispersion strengthened alloy for gas turbine blades

The strength of the newly developed alloy MA-6000E is derived from a nickel alloy base, an elongated grain structure, naturally occurring precipitates of gamma prime, and an artificial distribution of extremely fine, stable oxide particles. Its composition is Ni-15Cr-2Mo-2Ta-4W-4.5Al-2.5Ti-0.15Zr 0.05C-0.01B-1.1Y2O3. It exhibits the strength of a conventional nickel-base alloy at 1400 F but is quite superior at 2000 F. Its shear strength is relatively low, necessitating consideration of special joining procedures. Its high cycle, low cycle, and thermal fatigue properties are excellent. The relationship between alloy microstructure and properties is discussed.

Glasgow, T. K.↗

An oxide dispersion strengthened alloy for gas turbine blades

The strength of the newly developed alloy MA-6000E is derived from a nickel alloy base, an enlongated grain structure, naturally occurring precipitates of gamma prime, and an artificial distribution of extremely fine, stable oxide particles. Its composition is Ni-15% Cr-2% Mo-2% Ta-4% W-4.5% Al-2.5% Ti-0.15% Zr-0.05% C-0.01% B-1.1% Y2O3. It exhibits strength of a conventional nickel-base alloy at 1400 F, but is quite superior at 2000 F. Its shear strength is relatively low, necessitating consideration of special joining procedures. Its high-cycle, low-cycle, and thermal fatigue properties are excellent. The relationship between alloy micro-structure and properties is discussed.

Glasgow, T. K.↗

Mechanical Properties of Cu-Cr-Nb Alloys

The chemical compositions of the alloys are listed. The alloying levels were near the values for stochiometric Cr2Nb. A slight excess of Cr was chosen for increased hydrogen embrittlement resistance. The microstructures of all Cu-Cr-Nb alloys were very similar. Two typical transmission electron microscope (TEM) micrographs are presented. The images show the presence of large mount of Cr2Nb precipitates in a nearly pure Cu matrix. The interactions between dislocations and precipitates are currently under investigations, but as the images demonstrates, the extremely fine (less then 15 nm) Cr2Nb are the primary strengtheners for the alloy.

Ellis, David L.↗

TRMM: Status of Precipitation Estimates, Science Highlights, and 3-Hour Global, Tropical Precipitation Estimates

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed more than three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Examples and plans for operational use of TRMM data in tropical cyclone and other applications will be given. The status of precipitation estimates from different instruments and algorithms will be described. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20% in overall mean. In addition, time changes in global ocean rainfall between El Nino and La Nina conditions show a difference in sign between the active and passive microwave products. These differences are not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving the differences will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of using TRMM information to calibrate other passive microwave observations and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates and then merging them those estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

Adler, Robert↗

Solid state processing for high temperature alloys and composites

A variety of solid state powder processing methods have been examined for their potential to produce high temperature materials. These techniques included solid state diffusion, mechanical alloying, reaction milling, and exothermic reactions. While both mechanical alloying and exothermic reactions are capable of producing high temperature composites in addition to yielding solid solution and precipitation hardened alloys, reaction milling can only be used to make composite materials. Although at present this method has only been applied to make carbide strengthened Al, recent work indicates that reaction milling is capable of yielding high strength NiAl-AlN composites.

Whittenberger, J. Daniel↗

The Significance of Water Vapor Isotopes in Improving Weather Prediction

Water vapor isotopes carry the integrated history of evaporation, condensation, mixing, and transport. Although previous studies have shown potential to improve forecasts under controlled conditions, real-world applications have been limited by systematic biases in both models and satellite retrievals arising from sparse measurements in the free troposphere. Here we assimilate mid‑tropospheric δD retrievals (peak sensitivity ~4.2 km) from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer into the Isotope‑incorporated Global Spectral Model and evaluate the added value beyond co‑assimilated temperature and specific humidity with identical spatial and temporal coverage. Assimilating δD improves 0–120 h forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, and geopotential height, with the largest gains in the midlatitudes; heavy‑precipitation skill also increases for thresholds >3 mm per 6 h. Demonstrated in a coarse‑resolution configuration with limited observations, the results indicate that isotopic information strengthens transport tracking and hydrological constraints, motivating evaluation in operational high‑resolution forecasting systems.

Hydrology↗

TRMM Science Highlights and Status of Precipitation Estimates on Monthly and Finder Time Scales

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20%. The difference is not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving this difference will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates and is the topic of ongoing research utilizing various facets of the TRMM validation and field experiment programs. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented based on the TRMM merged product, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of merging TRMM, other passive microwave observations, and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

Adler, Robert↗

TRMM: Science Highlights and Status of Precipitation Estimates on Monthly and Finer Time Scales

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Monthly surface rainfall estimates Over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20%. The difference is not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving this difference will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates and is the topic of ongoing research utilizing various facets of the TRMM validation and field experiment programs. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented based on the TRMM merged product, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of merging TRMM, other passive microwave observations, and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

Adler, Robert↗

A Pan-Tropical Cascade of Fire Driven by El Nino/Southern Oscillation

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a pronounced influence on year-to-year variations in climate. The response of fires to this forcing is complex and has not been evaluated systematically across different continents. Here we use satellite data to create a climatology of burned-area and fire emissions responses, drawing on six El Nino and six La Nina events during 1997-2016. On average, reductions in precipitation and terrestrial water storage increased fire emissions in pan-tropical forests by 133% during and following El Nino as compared with La Nina. Fires peaked in equatorial Asia early in the ENSO cycle when El Nino was strengthening (Aug-Oct), before moving to southeast Asia and northern South America (Jan-Apr), Central America (Mar-May) and the southern Amazon (Jul-Oct) during the following year. Large decreases in fire occurred across northern Australia during Sep-Oct of the second year from a reduced fuel availability. Satellite observations of aerosols and carbon monoxide provided independent confirmation of the spatiotemporal evolution of fire anomalies. The predictable cascade of fire across different tropical continents described here highlights an important time delay in the Earth system's response to precipitation redistribution. These observations help to explain why the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 increases during El Nino and may contribute to improved seasonal fire forecasts.

Chen, Yang↗

Structure and elevated temperature properties of carbon-free ferritic alloys strengthened by a Laves phase

A Laves phase, Fe2Ta, was utilized to obtain good elevated temperature properties in a carbon-free iron alloy containing 1 at. pct Ta and 7 at. pct Cr. Room temperature embrittlement resulting from the precipitation of the Laves phase at grain boundaries was overcome by spheroidizing the precipitate. This was accomplished by thermally cycling the alloys through the alpha to gamma transformation. The short-time yield strength of the alloys decreased very slowly with increase in test temperature up to 600 C, but above this temperature, the strength decreased rapidly. Results of constant load creep and stress rupture tests conducted at several temperatures and stresses indicated that the rupture and creep strengths of spheroidized 1 Ta-7 Cr alloy were higher than those of several commercial steels containing chromium and/or molybdenum carbides but lower than those of steels containing substantial amounts of tungsten and vanadium. When molybdenum was added to the base Fe-Ta-Cr alloy, the rupture and creep strengths were considerably increased.

Bhandarkar, M. D.↗

Effect of reduction of strategic Columbium addition in 718 Alloy on the structure and properties

A series of alloys was developed having a base composition similar to Inconel 718, with reduced Cb levels of 3.00 and 1.10 wt% Cb. Substitutions of 3.0% W, 3.0W + 0.9V or Mo increased from 3.0% to 5.8% were made for the Cb in these alloys. Two additional alloys, one containing 3.49% Cb and 1.10% Ti and another containing 3.89% Cb and 1.29% Ti were also studied. Tensile properties at rooom and elevated temperatures, stress-rupture tests, and an analysis of extracted phases were carried out for each of the alloys. Additions of solid solution elements to a reduced Cb alloy had no significant effect on the properties of the alloys under either process condition. The solution and age alloys with substitutions of 1.27% i at 3.89% Cb had tensile properties similar top hose of the original alloy and stress-rupture properties superior to the original alloy. The improved stress-rupture properties were the result of significant precipitation of Ni3Ti-gamma prime in the alloy, which is more stable than gamma' at the elevated temperatures. At lower temperatures, the new alloy benefits from gamma' strengthening. With more precise control and proper processing, the reduced Cb direct-age alloy could substitute for Alloy 718 in high strength applications.

Ziegler, K. R.↗

The resistance of selected high strength alloys to embrittlement by a hydrogen environment

Selected high strength iron base and cobalt base alloys were resistant to degradation of mechanical properties in a one atmosphere hydrogen environment at ambient temperature. These alloys were strengthened initially by cold working which produced strain induced martensite and fcc mechanical twins in an fcc matrix. Heat treatment of the cobalt base alloy after cold working produced carbide precipitates with retention of an hcp epsilon phase which increased the yield strength level. High strength alloys can be produced which have some resistance to degradation of mechanical properties by a hydrogen environment under certain conditions.

Benson, R. B., Jr.↗

Water Vapor Feedback and Links to Mechanisms of Recent Tropical Climate Variations

Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying feedback processes. A strong warm/cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late1990 s with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 %/decade. Here we use a number of diverse satellite measurements to explore connections between upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) variations on these time scales and changes in other water and energy fluxes. Precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE / CERES, SRB) are use to analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry and moist components. Strong signatures of MSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these transports compared to radiative flux changes are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of heat rejection during episodes of warm or cold SST forcing. In conjunction with the diagnosed energy transports we explore frequency distributions of upper-tropospheric humidity as inferred from SSM/T-2 and AMSU-B passive microwave measurements. Relating these variations to SST changes suggests positive water vapor feedback, but at a level reduced from constant relative humidity.

Robertson, F. R.↗

ENSO/PDO-Like Variability of Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes Over the Satellite Era

Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying the nature of climate feedback processes. A strong warm / cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late 1990's with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 % /decade. Associated with ENSO and PDO-like tropical SST changes are surface freshwater and radiative fluxes which have important implications for heat and energy transport variations. In this study we examine how surface fluxes attending interannual to decadal SST fluctuations, e.g. precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE/CERES, SRB) are coupled. Using these data we analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry static energy and latent energy components. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations. Strong signatures ofMSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these fluxes and transports are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of tropical heat balance during episodes of warm or cold tropical SST.

Robertson, F. R.↗