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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

Tests of Substorm Models' Predictions Using ISTP Observations

This report provides progress to test the predictions of substorm models using ISTP observations. During the first year, two investigations were initiated in collaboration with a number of ISTP researchers. Both investigations use a combination of simultaneous measurements from high-, low-, and ground-altitude instruments to: (1) explore the role of MHD resonances in the onset and evolution of substorms, and (2) establish the timing of events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere during the substorm evolution beginning with the growth phase and ending with the recovery phase.

Sanchez, Ennio R.↗

Time Changes of the European Gravity Field from GRACE: A Comparison with Ground Measurements from Superconducting Gravimeters and with Hydrology Model Predictions

We investigate the time-variable gravity changes in Europe retrieved from the initial GRACE monthly solutions spanning a 18 month duration from April 2002 to October 2003. Gravity anomaly maps are retrieved in Central Europe from the monthly satellite solutions we compare the fields according to various truncation levels (typically between degree 10 and 20) of the initial fields (expressed in spherical harmonics to degree 120). For these different degrees, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition of the time-variable gravity field leads us to its main spatial and temporal characteristics. We show that the dominant signal is found to be annual with an amplitude and a phase both in agreement with predictions in Europe modeled using snow and soil-moisture variations from recent hydrology models. We compare these GRACE gravity field changes to surface gravity observations from 6 superconducting gravimeters of the GGP (Global Geodynamics Project) European sub-network, with a special attention to loading corrections. Initial results suggest that all 3 data sets (GRACE, hydrology and GGP) are responding to annual changes in near-surface water in Europe of a few microGal (at length scales of approx.1000 km) that show a high value in winter and a summer minimum. We also point out that the GRACE gravity field evolution seems to indicate that there is a trend in gravity between summer 2002 and summer 2003 which can be related to the 2003 heatwave in Europe and its hydrological consequences (drought). Despite the limited time span of our analysis and the uncertainties in retrieving a regional solution from the network of gravimeters, the calibration and validation aspects of the GRACE data processing based on the annual hydrology cycle in Europe are in progress.

Hinderer, J.↗

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development, phase 1

The objective of this program was to establish a methodology to predict thermal barrier coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involved experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. Evaluation of experimental and flight service components indicate the predominant failure mode to be thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer resulting from propagation of a dominant near interface crack. Examination of fractionally exposed specimens indicated that dominant crack formation results from progressive structural damage in the form of subcritical microcrack link-up. Tests conducted to isolate important life drivers have shown MCrAlY oxidation to significantly affect the rate of damage accumulation. Mechanical property testing has shown the plasma deposited ceramic to exhibit a non-linear stress-strain response, creep and fatigue. The fatigue based life prediction model developed accounts for the unusual ceramic behavior and also incorporates an experimentally determined oxide rate model. The model predicts the growth of this oxide scale to influence the intensity of the mechanic driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads.

Demasi, Jeanine T.↗

Predictive Modeling for Differential Diagnosis and Mortality Risk Assessment

The prevalence of electronic health record (EHR) systems has brought prodigious biomedical informatics opportunity. Automated machine learning methods can effectively utilize such data and have become common tools for healthcare predictive modeling. Researches in medical informatics have explored the potential of deep learning and classical models in emergent care scenarios. In particular, predicting differential diagnoses for admissions have proven useful in decreasing unnecessary lab tests and improving inpatient triage decision-making. Moreover, identification of high-risk patients for in-hospital mortality is vitally important to maximize allocation of medical resources.The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database, containing de-identified critical care inpatient was used in our study. This data set captures hospital patient laboratory measurements, pharmacologic prescriptions, diagnostic data and procedure event recordings. When considering adult patients and discounting admissions with ICU length of stay less than 24 hours, there were 37,787 unique admissions and 30,414 total patients. We examined the top 25 most prevalent ICD-9 group-level disease specificities in MIMIC-III using a multi-label classification model. In-hospital mortality was modeled as binary classification with 4,155 (13%) adult patients that expired, of which 3,138 (75.5%) were in the ICU setting. The metrics AUC, F1 score, sensitivity and specificity values calculated for each disease label measured prediction performance.The usage of ICD-9 group codes reduced feature dimension from 14,567 to 942 and greatly improved distribution of patient diagnostic categories. Disease temporal patterns were captured by considering the most frequently sampled 6 vital signs and 13 laboratory values. Missing data were imputed at each time-stamp. Time-series raw hourly average values were converted into 5 summary features (mean, standard deviation, number of observations, min & max values). Patient demographic variables such as age, gender, marital status and ethnicity were also factored into the modeling. Choi et al showed that contextual embedding of medical data, diagnostic and procedural codes alone can predict future diagnoses with sensitivity as high as 0.79. We utilized an embedding technique called word2vec which allowed sparse representations of medical history to be transformed into dense word vectors. The mappings captured contextual information by treating each admission as a sentence and learning the most likely neighboring words in a sliding window fashion. Binary and multi-label classification was achieved via collapse models, which do not consider temporal information, as well as recurrent neural networks with regularization, Softmax output layer activation together with categorical cross-entropy as the loss function.

US Army collaboration↗

Atmospheric prediction model survey

As part of the SEASAT Satellite program of NASA, a survey of representative primitive equation atmospheric prediction models that exist in the world today was written for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Seventeen models developed by eleven different operational and research centers throughout the world are included in the survey. The surveys are tutorial in nature describing the features of the various models in a systematic manner.

Wellck, R. E.↗

Comparison of Fire Model Predictions with Experiments Conducted in a Hangar With a 15 Meter Ceiling

The purpose of this study is to examine the predictive capabilities of fire models using the results of a series of fire experiments conducted in an aircraft hangar with a ceiling height of about 15 m. This study is designed to investigate model applicability at a ceiling height where only a limited amount of experimental data is available. This analysis deals primarily with temperature comparisons as a function of distance from the fire center and depth beneath the ceiling. Only limited velocity measurements in the ceiling jet were available but these are also compared with those models with a velocity predictive capability.

MATHEMATICAL MODELS↗

A survey of nested grid techniques and their potential for use within the MASS weather prediction model

A survey of various one- and two-way interactive nested grid techniques used in hydrostatic numerical weather prediction models is presented and the advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. The techniques for specifying the lateral boundary conditions for each nested grid scheme are described in detail. Averaging and interpolation techniques used when applying the coarse mesh grid (CMG) and fine mesh grid (FMG) interface conditions during two-way nesting are discussed separately. The survey shows that errors are commonly generated at the boundary between the CMG and FMG due to boundary formulation or specification discrepancies. Methods used to control this noise include application of smoothers, enhanced diffusion, or damping-type time integration schemes to model variables. The results from this survey provide the information needed to decide which one-way and two-way nested grid schemes merit future testing with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model. An analytically specified baroclinic wave will be used to conduct systematic tests of the chosen schemes since this will allow for objective determination of the interfacial noise in the kind of meteorological setting for which MASS is designed. Sample diagnostic plots from initial tests using the analytic wave are presented to illustrate how the model-generated noise is ascertained. These plots will be used to compare the accuracy of the various nesting schemes when incorporated into the MASS model.

Koch, Steven E.↗

Lightweight ZERODUR: Validation of Mirror Performance and Mirror Modeling Predictions

Upcoming spaceborne missions, both moderate and large in scale, require extreme dimensional stability while relying both upon established lightweight mirror materials, and also upon accurate modeling methods to predict performance under varying boundary conditions. We describe tests, recently performed at NASA's XRCF chambers and laboratories in Huntsville Alabama, during which a 1.2 m diameter, f/1.2988% lightweighted SCHOTT lightweighted ZERODUR(TradeMark) mirror was tested for thermal stability under static loads in steps down to 230K. Test results are compared to model predictions, based upon recently published data on ZERODUR(TradeMark). In addition to monitoring the mirror surface for thermal perturbations in XRCF Thermal Vacuum tests, static load gravity deformations have been measured and compared to model predictions. Also the Modal Response(dynamic disturbance) was measured and compared to model. We will discuss the fabrication approach and optomechanical design of the ZERODUR(TradeMark) mirror substrate by SCHOTT, its optical preparation for test by Arizona Optical Systems (AOS). Summarize the outcome of NASA's XRCF tests and model validations

technology↗

Model Predictive Control Strategies for Turbine Electrified Energy Management

The increasing electrification of aircraft propulsion systems is leading to new control architectures being developed to address integration between electric machines and gas-based turbine engines. For hybrid-electric propulsion systems, current conceptual architectures often couple electric machines with the shafts of gas turbine engines and introduce energy storage. Leveraging the electrical power system of hybridized engines, Turbine Electrified Energy Management (TEEM) is a recent control approach that improves transient operability in an effort to enable more efficient and lighter weight turbomachinery. This study seeks to expand TEEM’s application beyond traditional proportional integral (PI) control by presenting linear model predictive control (MPC) schemes to execute the TEEM concept. Through constraint selection and cost function design, transient operability goals for TEEM are considered with no external logic or saturation. Unique to the designs are the use of a washout filter, which simplifies transient detection and motor activation logic. The proposed architectures are implemented with both centralized MPC and distributed MPC approaches, and comparisons are drawn to a benchmark PI controller simulated on a nonlinear turbofan engine model at one ground condition and one cruise condition. Performance is evaluated using compressor maps, stall margin performance, and two novel metrics: transient stack usage and transient excursion integral. Results reveal the linear MPC scheme performs comparably to the baseline controller and can be implemented in at least two distinct configurations with potential for further modifications, thus establishing the groundwork for future investigations.

Model Predictive Control↗

Model Predictive Control Strategies for Turbine Electrified Energy Management

The increasing electrification of aircraft propulsion systems is leading to new control architectures being developed to address integration between electric machines and gas-based turbine engines. For hybrid-electric propulsion systems, current conceptual architectures often couple electric machines with the shafts of gas turbine engines and introduce energy storage. Leveraging the electrical power system of hybridized engines, Turbine Electrified Energy Management (TEEM) is a recent control approach that improves transient operability in an effort to enable more efficient and lighter weight turbomachinery. This study seeks to expand TEEM’s application beyond traditional proportional-integral (PI) control by presenting linear model predictive control (MPC) schemes to execute the TEEM concept. Through constraint selection and cost function design, transient operability goals for TEEM are considered with no external logic or saturation. Unique to the designs are the use of a washout filter, which simplifies transient detection and motor activation logic. The proposed architectures are implemented with both centralized MPC and distributed MPC approaches, and comparisons are drawn to a benchmark PI controller simulated on a nonlinear turbofan engine model at one ground condition and one cruise condition. Performance is evaluated using compressor maps, stall margin performance, and two novel metrics: transient stack usage and transient excursion integral. Results reveal the linear MPC scheme performs comparably to the baseline controller and can be implemented in at least two distinct configurations with potential for further modifications, thus establishing the groundwork for future investigations.

Model Predictive Control↗

Model Predictive Control Strategies for Turbine Electrified Energy Management

The increasing electrification of aircraft propulsion systems is leading to new control architectures being developed to address integration between electric machines and gas-based turbine engines. For hybrid-electric propulsion systems, current conceptual architectures often couple electric machines with the shafts of gas turbine engines and introduce energy storage. Leveraging the electrical power system of hybridized engines, Turbine Electrified Energy Management (TEEM) is a recent control approach that improves transient operability in an effort to enable more efficient and lighter weight turbomachinery. This study seeks to expand TEEM’s application beyond traditional proportional-integral (PI) control by presenting linear model predictive control (MPC) schemes to execute the TEEM concept. Through constraint selection and cost function design, transient operability goals for TEEM are considered with no external logic or saturation. Unique to the designs are the use of a washout filter, which simplifies transient detection and motor activation logic. The proposed architectures are implemented with both centralized MPC and distributed MPC approaches, and comparisons are drawn to a benchmark PI controller simulated on a nonlinear turbofan engine model at one ground condition and one cruise condition. Performance is evaluated using compressor maps, stall margin performance, and two novel metrics: transient stack usage and transient excursion integral. Results reveal the linear MPC scheme performs comparably to the baseline controller and can be implemented in at least two distinct configurations with potential for further modifications, thus establishing the groundwork for future investigations.

Model Predictive Control↗

Model Predictive Control in the Three-body Problem Using Invariant Funnels As Terminal Sets

This paper describes a method for augmenting Model Predictive Control techniques using invariant funnels computed in the Circular Restricted Three-Body Problem. We use ellipsoids that roughly approximate the boundary of the invariant funnel as convex terminal sets for a short look-ahead optimization problem at each time step. We apply this method to a hypothetical low-thrust mission to land on Jupiter’s mooon Europa and show that including the invariant funnels as terminal sets reduces the amount of control effort required by almost an order of magnitude.

Close, Sigrid↗

Development of a Generic Creep-Fatigue Life Prediction Model

The objective of this research proposal is to further compile creep-fatigue data of steel alloys and superalloys used in military aircraft engines and/or rocket engines and to develop a statistical multivariate equation. The newly derived model will be a probabilistic fit to all the data compiled from various sources. Attempts will be made to procure the creep-fatigue data from NASA Glenn Research Center and other sources to further develop life prediction models for specific alloy groups. In a previous effort [1-3], a bank of creep-fatigue data has been compiled and tabulated under a range of known test parameters. These test parameters are called independent variables, namely; total strain range, strain rate, hold time, and temperature. The present research attempts to use these variables to develop a multivariate equation, which will be a probabilistic equation fitting a large database. The data predicted by the new model will be analyzed using the normal distribution fits, the closer the predicted lives are with the experimental lives (normal line 1 to 1 fit) the better the prediction. This will be evaluated in terms of a coefficient of correlation, R 2 as well. A multivariate equation developed earlier [3] has the following form, where S, R, T, and H have specific meaning discussed later.

Goswami, Tarun↗

The use of atmospheric measurements to constrain model predictions of ozone change from chlorine perturbations

Atmospheric photochemistry models have been used to predict the sensitivity of the ozone layer to various perturbations. These same models also predict concentrations of chemical species in the present day atmosphere which can be compared to observations. Model results for both present day values and sensitivity to perturbation depend upon input data for reaction rates, photodissociation rates, and boundary conditions. A method of combining the results of a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis with the existing set of present atmospheric species measurements is developed. The method is used to examine the range of values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine perturbations that is possible within the currently accepted ranges for input data. It is found that model runs which predict ozone column losses much greater than 10 percent as a result of present fluorocarbon fluxes produce concentrations and column amounts in the present atmosphere which are inconsistent with the measurements for ClO, HCl, NO, NO2, and HNO3.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

Atmospheric model development in support of SEASAT. Volume 3: Prediction models

As part of the SEASAT program of NASA, a set of four hemispheric, atmospheric models are developed. The four models use a polar stereographic grid in the horizontal and a sigma coordinate in the vertical. Conservation forms of the difference equations are integrated using either a fifteen or four minute time step on a 381 km or 127 km grid (at 60 deg N) for the 63 x 63 or 187 x 187 models respectively. A nonlinear pressure smoother is used along with momentum and temperature diffusion to help control computational noise. The horizontal boundary conditions are insulated slippery walls. Centered time differencing with time averaging of the pressure gradient force term in the momentum equations is used. Robert time filtering on of the temperature and moisture solutions is used for computational stability. The moisture and heat source/sink terms are modeled. Terms representing evaporation and large scale condensation, sensible heat exchange, parameterized cumulus convection and precipitation, and solar and terrestrial radiation are included. Initialization of the models is based on a pattern conservation technique to obtain objective analysis of the state parameter structure from the surface to 50 mb.

Wellck, R. E.↗

Predictive Modeling of the CDRA 4BMS

As part of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program and the Life Support Systems Project (LSSP), fully predictive models of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) on the International Space Station (ISS) are being developed. This virtual laboratory will be used to help reduce mass, power, and volume requirements for future missions. In this paper we describe current and planned modeling developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future crewed Mars missions as well as the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA.

Coker, Robert F.↗

Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

Kranbuehl, D.↗