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At least 127 records · Page 7

Information Theory - The Bridge Connecting Bounded Rational Game Theory and Statistical Physics

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality of all red-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. This paper shows that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Product Distribution (PD) theory, addresses both issues. In this, PD theory not only provides a principle formulation of bounded rationality and a set of new types of mean field theory in statistical physics; it also shows that those topics are fundamentally one and the same.

Wolpert, David H.↗

New formalism for two-photon quantum optics. I - Quadrature phases and squeezed states. II - Mathematical foundation and compact notation

A new formalism for analyzing two-photon devices, such as parametric amplifiers and phase-conjugate mirrors, is proposed in part I, focusing on the properties and the significance of the quadrature-phase amplitudes and two-mode squeezed states. Time-stationary quasi-probability noise is also detailed for the case of Gaussian noise, and uncertainty principles for the quadrature-phase amplitudes are outlined, as well as some important properties of the two-mode states. Part II establishes a mathematical foundation for the formalism, with introduction of a vector notation for compact representation of two-mode properties. Fundamental unitary operators and special quantum states are also examined with an emphasis on the two-mode squeezed states. The results are applied to a previously studied degenerate limit (epsilon = 0).

Caves, C. M.↗

Proceedings of the Third Annual Symposium on Mathematical Pattern Recognition and Image Analysis

Topics addressed include: multivariate spline method; normal mixture analysis applied to remote sensing; image data analysis; classifications in spatially correlated environments; probability density functions; graphical nonparametric methods; subpixel registration analysis; hypothesis integration in image understanding systems; rectification of satellite scanner imagery; spatial variation in remotely sensed images; smooth multidimensional interpolation; and optimal frequency domain textural edge detection filters.

Guseman, L. F., Jr.↗

Costas loop lock detection in the advanced receiver

The advanced receiver currently being developed uses a Costas digital loop to demodulate the subcarrier. Previous analyses of lock detector algorithms for Costas loops have ignored the effects of the inherent correlation between the samples of the phase-error process. Accounting for this correlation is necessary to achieve the desired lock-detection probability for a given false-alarm rate. Both analysis and simulations are used to quantify the effects of phase correlation on lock detection for the square-law and the absolute-value type detectors. Results are obtained which depict the lock-detection probability as a function of loop signal-to-noise ratio for a given false-alarm rate. The mathematical model and computer simulation show that the square-law detector experiences less degradation due to phase jitter than the absolute-value detector and that the degradation in detector signal-to-noise ratio is more pronounced for square-wave than for sine-wave signals.

Mileant, A.↗

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

Joyner, James J., Sr.↗

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

Operational Hazards↗

A mathematical examination of the press model for atmospheric turbulence

The random process used to model atmospheric turbulence in aircraft response problems is examined. The first, second, and higher order probability density and characteristic functions were developed. The concepts of the Press model lead to an approximate procedure for the analysis of the response of linear dynamic systems to a class of non-Gaussian random processes. The Press model accounts for both the Gaussian and non-Gaussian forms of measured turbulence data. The nonstationary aspects of measured data are explicitly described by the transition properties of the random process. The effects of the distribution of the intensity process upon calculated exceedances are examined. It is concluded that the press model with a Gaussian intensity distribution gives a conservative prediction of limit load values.

Sidwell, K.↗

Some questions of an optimum probability synthesis of dynamic metalworking machine systems

Attempts were made to develop a dynamic metal working machine tool system using probability information on external factors and independent disturbances of the parameters. The problem was optimized in two stages: (1) creation of mathematical models under conditions determined by input influences, and (2) processing the results of calculations obtained on such models. Data were obtained on the patterns of distribution of dynamic quality characteristics of the tool, vibration frequencies and amplitudes, attenuation coefficients, and duration of a transition process. These data were obtained using a digital computer, statistical test methods, or logical possibility trees.

Dobrynin, S. A.↗

Public Risk Assessment Program

The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

Mendeck, Gavin↗

Optical communication with semiconductor laser diodes

Slot timing recovery in a direct detection optical PPM communication system can be achieved by processing the photodetector waveform with a nonlinear device whose output forms the input to a phase lock group. The choice of a simple transition detector as the nonlinearity is shown to give satisfactory synchronization performance. The rms phase error of the recovered slot clock and the effect of slot timing jitter on the bit error probability were directly measured. The experimental system consisted of an AlGaAs laser diode (lambda = 834 nm) and a silicon avalanche photodiode (APD) photodetector and used Q=4 PPM signaling operated at a source data rate of 25 megabits/second. The mathematical model developed to characterize system performance is shown to be in good agreement with actual performance measurements. The use of the recovered slot clock in the receiver resulted in no degradation in receiver sensitivity compared to a system with perfect slot timing. The system achieved a bit error probability of 10 to the minus 6 power at received signal energies corresponding to an average of less than 60 detected photons per information bit.

Davidson, F.↗

An onboard star identification algorithm

The paper presents the autonomous Initial Stellar Acquisition (ISA) algorithm developed for the X-Ray Timing Explorer for prividing the attitude quaternion within the desired accuracy, based on the one-axis attitude knowledge (through the use of the Digital Sun Sensor, CCD Star Trackers, and the onboard star catalog, OSC). Mathematical analysis leads to an accurate measure of the performance of the algorithm as a function of various parameters, such as the probability of a tracked star being in the OSC, the sensor noise level, and the number of stars matched. It is shown that the simplicity, tractability, and robustness of the ISA algorithm, compared to a general three-axis attiude determination algorithm, make it a viable on-board solution.

Ha, Kong↗

Physical Meaning of the Optimum Measurement Process in Quantum Detection Theory

The optimum measurement processes are represented as the optimum detection operators in the quantum detection theory. The error probability by the optimum detection operators goes beyond the standard quantum limit automatically. However the optimum detection operators are given by pure mathematical descriptions. In order to realize a communication system overcoming the standard quantum limit, we try to give the physical meaning of the optimum detection operators.

Osaki, Masao↗

Heat Flow and Magnetization in the Oceanic Lithosphere

Two aspects of the processing and interpretation of satellite measurements of the geomagnetic field are described. One deals with the extraction of the part of the geomagnetic field that originates from sources in the earth's atmosphere. The other investigates the possibility of using the thermal state of the oceanic lithosphere to further constrain modelling and interpretation of magnetic anomalies. It is shown that some of the magnetic signal in crustal anomaly maps can be an artifact of the mathematical algorithms that have been used to separate the crustal field from the observed data. Strong magnetic anomalies can be distorted but are probably real, but weak magnetic anomalies can arise from leakage of power from short wavelengths, and will also appear in anomaly maps as repetitions of the strong crustal anomaly. The distortion and the ghost anomalies follow the magnetic dip lines in a way that is similar to actual MAGSAT anomaly fields. This phenomenon will also affect the lower degree spherical harmonic terms in the power spectrum of the crustal field. A model of the magnetic properties of the oceanic crust that has been derived from direct measurements of the rock magnetic properties of oceanic rocks is presented. The average intensity of magnetization in the oceanic crust is not strong enough to explain magnetic anomalies observed over oceanic areas. This is the case for both near surface observations (ship and aeromagnetic data) and satellite altitude observations. It is shown that magnetic sources in the part of the upper mantle that is situated above the Curie isotherm, if sufficiently strong, can produce satellite magnetic anomalies that are comparable to MAGSAT data. The method developed for the study of depth to the Curie isotherm and magnetic anomalies can also be used in inverse modelling of satellite magnetic anomalies when the model is to be adjusted with an annihilator.

Hayling, Kjell Lennart↗

AutoClass: A Bayesian Approach to Classification

We describe a Bayesian approach to the untutored discovery of classes in a set of cases, sometimes called finite mixture separation or clustering. The main difference between clustering and our approach is that we search for the "best" set of class descriptions rather than grouping the cases themselves. We describe our classes in terms of a probability distribution or density function, and the locally maximal posterior probability valued function parameters. We rate our classifications with an approximate joint probability of the data and functional form, marginalizing over the parameters. Approximation is necessitated by the computational complexity of the joint probability. Thus, we marginalize w.r.t. local maxima in the parameter space. We discuss the rationale behind our approach to classification. We give the mathematical development for the basic mixture model and describe the approximations needed for computational tractability. We instantiate the basic model with the discrete Dirichlet distribution and multivariant Gaussian density likelihoods. Then we show some results for both constructed and actual data.

Stutz, John↗

Planing of Watercraft

The present report deals with the processes accompanying the planing of a planing boat or a seaplane on water . The study is largely based upon theoretical investigations; mathematical problems and proofs are not discussed. To analyze theoreticaly actual planing processes, giving due consideration to all aspects of the problem, is probably not possible. The theories therefore treat various simple limiting cases, which in their entirety give a picture of the planing processes and enable the interpretation of the experimental results. The discussion is concerned with the stationary planing attitude: the boat planes at a constant speed V on an originally smooth surface.

Wagner, Herbert↗

Viscoelastic Properties of Polymer Blends

Viscosity, shear modulus and other viscoelastic properties of multicomponent polymer blends are predicted from behavior of individual components, using a mathematical model. Model is extension of two-component-blend model based on Rouse-Bueche-Zimm theory of polymer viscoelasticity. Extension assumes that probabilities of forming various possible intracomponent and intercomponent entanglements among polymer molecules are proportional to relative abundances of components.

Hong, S. D.↗

Predicting debris

The probable amount, sizes, and relative velocities of debris are discussed, giving examples of the damage caused by debris, and focusing on the use of mathematical models to forecast the debris environment and solar activity now and in the future. Most debris are within 2,000 km of the earth's surface. The average velocity of spacecraft-debris collisions varies from 9 km/sec at 30 degrees of inclination to 13 km/sec near polar orbits. Mathematical models predict a 5 percent per year increase in the large-fragment population, producing a small-fragment population increase of 10 percent per year until the year 2060, the time of critical density. A 10 percent increase in the large population would cause the critical density to be reached around 2025.

Kessler, Donald J.↗