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DOE OSTI2024

Inefficacy of mallard flight responses to approaching vehicles

Vehicle collisions with birds are financially costly and dangerous to humans and animals. To reduce collisions, it is necessary to understand how birds respond to approaching vehicles. We used simulated (i.e., animals exposed to video playback) and real vehicle approaches with mallards (Anas platyrynchos) to quantify flight behavior and probability of collision under different vehicle speeds and times of day (day vs. night). Birds exposed to simulated nighttime approaches exhibited reduced probability of attempting escape, but when escape was attempted, fled with more time before collision compared to birds exposed to simulated daytime approaches. The lower probability of flight may indicate that the visual stimulus of vehicle approaches at night (i.e., looming headlights) is perceived as less threatening than when the full vehicle is more visible during the day; alternatively, the mallard visual system might be incompatible with vehicle lighting in dark settings. Mallards approached by a real vehicle exhibited a delayed margin of safety (both flight initiation distance and time before collision decreased with speed); they are the first bird species found to exhibit this response to vehicle approach. Our findings suggest mallards are poorly equipped to adequately respond to fast-moving vehicles and demonstrate the need for continued research into methods promoting effective avian avoidance behaviors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

ML Classifier Fusion for Three Data Streams with Quality Inversely Proportional to Time Resolution

We consider a monitoring scenario of phenomenon using three different streams of measurements whose quality is proportional to their constant inter-arrival times. Each measurement of a stream needs to be binary-classified to reflect the state of interest of the phenomenon. A set of classifiers is separately trained and fused for each stream at its time resolution using measurements collected under known states. We present a machine learning method to fuse the outputs of these fusers to provide a final classification at the finest time resolution. We show that this fused-fusers method provides decisions with likely superior classification probability compared to the best individual classifiers and fused-classifiers. We derive generalization equations that guarantee a superior classification probability of fused-fusers with a confidence probability specified by the classifiers’ generalization equations. We apply these results to study a practical problem of classifying Pu/Np target dissolution events at a radiochemical processing facility using gamma spectral measurements of effluent flows.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feature-Based PMU Event Classification under Variable PMU Participation and Overlapping Events

This paper is the basis for a presentation help at the 2026 Georgia Tech Fault & Disturbance Analysis Conference, which can be found at OSTI # 3168287 Paper Abstract—Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) stream time synchronized, high-resolution measurements from the grid, enabling data-driven techniques for event detection and classification. Accurate event classification improves grid reliability and stability. Events can be detected by varying numbers of PMUs and exhibit different durations depending on the event type. This variability challenges standard classifiers that require uniform input sizes. Moreover, multiple events may coincide, which increases classification complexity. Standard classifiers assign each instance to the class with the highest predicted probability, whereas overlapping events may exhibit comparable probabilities across multiple classes. In this study, to handle data size variability, we extract a wide range of time–frequency domain features from all available PMUs for each event into a fixed-length vector, facilitating the application of standard machine learning classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, Support Vector Machine, and Multilayer Perceptron. To account for overlapping events, a probabilistic post-processing step is applied. For a given data instance, if multiple predicted class probabilities exceed 30% and the differences between them are less than 10%, the event is assigned to multiple classes. Experiments using real-world PMU data demonstrate that the Random Forest and XGBoost models achieve the highest accuracy, while the proposed post-processing method yields perfect classification performance on external unseen test sets.

Nematirad, Reza [Danovo Energy Solutions]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Natural Hazard Forecast Alert Grid Risk System

Weather events cause most power outages. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Idaho National Laboratory had a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response program to develop a grid alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios using MASTERRI (Modeling And Simulation for Targeted Reliability and Resilience Improvement). For high-risk events, the application can then send alert links to subscribed electric distribution utility operations staff to allow them to see and evaluate the scenarios and the impact in a web based interactive map tool. This proof of concept application used data from utilities and organizations, such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which have complied historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid. Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates were calculated for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures were correlated with historic weather events from the Integrated Public Alert & Warning System. These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. Working with an industry collaborator, actual grid models and data were used for demonstration cases. This report outlines the work performed for this project.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lifetimes of low-lying levels in 158 Gd

The low-lying structure of the well-deformed nucleus 158 Gd has been revisited to elucidate the nature of the low-lying states in 158 Gd. Earlier (p, t) studies identified numerous 0 + states below 4.3 MeV, prompting questions about whether these states correspond to collective vibrations or shape coexistence. New and previously reported (n, n' γ) measurements are combined, including γ-γ coincidences, excitation functions, and angular distributions, to extract lifetimes and transition probabilities for 44 excited states up to 2.7 MeV, including 32 previously unmeasured levels. Our results confirm or revise γ-ray placements and provide detailed transition strengths, revealing both weakly collective and strongly enhanced B(E2) and B(E1) transition probabilities. In particular, a tentative 0 + state at 2437.8 keV exhibits a strong interband B(E2) transition, which may be a candidate for a possible two-phonon (ββ) excitation. Systematic comparisons with neighboring Gd isotopes, Hartree–Fock–Bogoliubov, and interacting-boson model predictions suggest that the first excited 0 + state in 158 Gd is predicted to be a β-vibration, although it is weakly collective.

158Gd↗

DOE OSTI2025

Statistical evaluation of microscale stress conditions leading to void nucleation in the weak shock regime

Here, we investigate the heterogeneity of the stress state driven by anisotropic deformation response at the single crystal level through five statistical volume element (SVE) calculations of polycrystalline BCC tantalum. This work focuses on grain boundaries as a prominent material defect type prone to void nucleation based upon experimental observations of predominantly intergranular void nucleation in this material. The SVEs are constructed to be statistically representative of larger volumes of material and are meshed such that mean and standard deviation of grain size and orientation information is reconstructed. The computational meshes feature hexahedral (brick) elements and smooth conformal grain boundaries where significant stress concentration is known to occur, a tail effect of interest in the extreme events process of dynamic ductile damage. An existing micromechanical crystallographic plasticity model shown to capture the single crystal behavior of BCC tantalum well is used to perform the polycrystal calculations. The model includes representation of the non-Schmid effect of non-planar screw dislocation kinetics in tantalum. A three-dimensional stress state time profile predicted by damage modeling of a flyer plate impact experiment is applied as boundary conditions to each SVE. Resulting grain boundary stress state statistics are strongly non-Gaussian. Significant structural evolution is observed within the compressive hold before unloading into tension in the stress profile. Strong angular dependence of grain boundary traction magnitude with shock direction is observed. Non-Schmid effects continue to suggest their influence on propensity of microstructural defect types to nucleate voids. A general void nucleation criterion is proposed using probability theory. The general framework is specified to polycrystalline BCC tantalum in the weak shock regime to include the SVE calculations and literature molecular dynamics calculations of grain boundary void nucleation strength. Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to describe the interaction between the local stress state heterogeneity and the distributed grain boundary void nucleation strength state. A causation entropy maximization procedure removes the requirement for ad hoc selection of a PDF functional form and provides a rigorous procedure for data-based PDF determination. The resulting physically informed PDF describes the spatial appearance frequency of nucleated voids as a function of applied macroscale pressure. Lower length scale physics are thus packaged in a precise and computationally efficient way to provide computational plasticity insight to macroscale dynamic ductile damage models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining (n,γ) cross sections via surrogate measurements with hyperion

Indirect measurement techniques, such as the surrogate method, are necessary to constrain cross sections and reaction rates that are inaccessible for direct measurement. The surrogate method uses an alternate reaction channel to populate a nucleus of interest, and combines resulting experimental data with theory to constrain the desired (n,γ) cross section. Individual γ-decay probabilities are experimentally extracted using γ-ray spectroscopy. This project utilizes surrogate analysis of 64,70 Zn(p,d) and 64,70 Zn(p,t) reactions measured with the Hyperion array at Texas A&M University's Cyclotron Facility to probe the relevant neutron capture reactions 61,62,67,68 Zn(n,γ). As an example, preliminary γ-decay probabilities are presented for 69 Zn.

Neutron capture↗

DOE OSTI2025

Facet-dependent structure and dissociation of water at pristine IrO 2 /water interfaces

Understanding the microscopic structure of water at metal oxide interfaces is crucial for advancing electrocatalysis. IrO 2 , specifically, has shown exceptional activity for electrochemical water oxidation, but we currently lack a fundamental understanding of how the surface structure of IrO 2 impacts water reactivity. In this work, we developed a machine learning potential trained to first-principles accuracy for modeling IrO 2 /water interfaces across different facets: (110), (100), (101), and (001). Using extensive machine learning molecular dynamics simulations, we investigated the spontaneous dissociation of water molecules at these interfaces. Our results reveal a distinct dissociation probability trend: (110) > (100) ≈ (101) > (001), which we attribute primarily to the reaction thermodynamics of surface water dissociation. A strong correlation is observed between the surface Ir–O bond distances and the dissociation probabilities, highlighting the role of surface geometry in modulating reactivity. As a consequence, the interfacial solvation structures and hydrogen bonding environments are dynamically tuned by the varying water dissociation capabilities across facets. This work elucidates how water dissociation energetics depend on surface orientation and interfacial structure, offering atomistic insights into manipulating reaction chemistry at electrocatalytic interfaces.

organic↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conditional Pseudo-Reversible Normalizing Flow for Surrogate Modeling in Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow (PR-NF) that directly learns conditional probability distributions from noisy physical models to efficiently quantify both forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Traditional surrogate modeling approaches approximate only the deterministic component of physical models, requiring separate noise characterization and computationally expensive sampling methods for inverse problems. Here, in this work, we develop the conditional PR-NF model to directly learn and efficiently generate samples from the conditional probability density functions (PDFs). The training process utilizes dataset consisting of input-output pairs without requiring prior knowledge about the noise and the function. Once trained, our model efficiently generates samples from conditional PDFs for any input within the training domain. Moreover, the pseudo-reversibility feature allows for the use of fully connected neural network architectures, which simplifies the implementation and enables theoretical analysis. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the conditional PR-NF model, showing its ability to converge to the target conditional PDF using the Kullback−Leibler divergence. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we apply it to several benchmark tests and a real-world geologic carbon storage problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dual-Phase Malicious User Detection Scheme for IM-OFDMA Systems Using IQ Imbalance

Physical-layer security techniques have contributed to the achievement of various security objectives in an efficient and lightweight manner. Thus, these techniques have been widely considered for limited-resource networks such as Internet of Things networks. Among the different security objectives, malicious user detection by exploiting physical-layer parameters has demonstrated efficient performance. In this work, malicious user detection in the recently proposed index modulation-based orthogonal frequency division multiple access (IM-OFDMA) is addressed. The proposed malicious user detection scheme exploits the hardware impairments, especially the in-phase and quadrature imbalance parameters, for both legitimate and malicious users to design a dual-phase efficient detection scheme. The proposed scheme accounts for the special characteristics of IM-OFDMA transmission that are different from other multiple-access techniques. The performance of the proposed scheme was evaluated considering detection probability and false alarm probability performance metrics. Moreover, closed-form expressions of these metrics were derived for both phases and were validated by Monte Carlo simulation results under different configurations of IM-OFDMA systems.

Alaca, Ozgur [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000153713758)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spatial analysis of cell patterning to aid genetic and phenotypic understanding of grass stomatal density: A case study in maize

Biological processes involve complex hierarchies where composite traits result from multiple component traits. However, holistically understanding of how sets of component traits interact to underpin genotype-to-phenotype relationships is generally lacking. Stomatal density (SD) is a tractable model system for exploring how high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) data could be exploited by a new spatial analysis approach to better understand a developmentally and functionally important trait. SD is a composite trait, resulting from various components related to cell identity and size, which are themselves governed by a series of spatio-developmental processes. Data from 192 recombinant inbred lines of maize [Zea mays (L.)] were analyzed by a new stomatal patterning phenotype (SPP) to (1) describe the average spatial probability distribution of the nearest neighboring stomata; (2) derive a core set of component traits related to cell size, cell packing, and positional probabilities; (3) build a structural equation model of component traits underlying SD; and (4) identify stomatal patterning quantitative trait loci (QTL). The core set of SPP-derived traits explained 74% of the variation in SD. Analyzing SPP component traits allowed some loci previously identified as generic SD QTL to be recognized as specific to lateral versus longitudinal elements of stomatal patterning. Therefore, this study highlights how novel insights can be gained by decomposing a composite trait (e.g., SD) into a set of component traits that were present in HTP data but not previously exploited.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interdisciplinary Approaches Improve Understanding of Cryptogenic Species: A Historical Case Study of Crayfish in Montana, USA

ABSTRACT Cryptogenic species are those that are not yet “demonstrably native or introduced” in a given area, such as crayfish in western Montana, USA. Delving into evidence from diverse fields can help clarify the status of cryptogenic species. Primary historical sources and indigenous knowledge have informed various ecological questions but are seldom used to clarify the status of cryptogenic species, especially aquatic taxa. We summarize types of evidence used to illuminate species status and offer a case study applying historical sources to cryptogenic crayfish in Montana. We searched for crayfish mentions in dictionaries of indigenous languages and primary historical documents (e.g., travel journals, newspaper accounts, early biological surveys). Early explorer accounts we examined did not mention crayfish in Montana, though they noted them in the nearby Snake River drainage of Idaho and Wyoming. The first mention of crayfish in Montana that we found was from an 1868 newspaper account, probably referencing the upper Missouri River. The species was not noted, but an 1887 article suggested signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus introductions near Bozeman, where non‐native signal crayfish still persist. The earliest crayfish mention we found west of the Great Divide in Montana was from 1934 in Ninepipes and probably referred to non‐native virile crayfish ( Faxonius virilis ). Signal crayfish were not mentioned west of the Divide until a 1944 newspaper account noted their 1937 introduction to the Bitterroot River drainage. The case study demonstrates the value of historical sources in identifying the absence of species and documenting their presence or introduction during periods predating scientific data.

Kennedy, Hampton L. [USDA Forest Service, Southern↗

DOE OSTI2026

Strangeness enhancement at its extremes: multiple (multi-)strange hadron production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=5.02$ TeV

The probability to observe a specific number of strange and multi-strange hadrons (nS), denoted as P(nS), is measured by ALICE at midrapidity (|y| < 0.5) in $$\sqrt{s}=5.02$$ TeV proton-proton (pp) collisions, dividing events into several multiplicity-density classes. Exploiting, for the first time, a technique based on counting the number of strange-particle candidates event-by-event, this measurement allows one to extend the study of strangeness production beyond the mean of the distribution. This constitutes a new test bench for production mechanisms, probing events with a large imbalance between strange and non-strange content. The analysis of a large-statistics data sample makes it possible to extract P(nS) up to a maximum nS of 7 for $${\text{K}}_{\text{S}}^{0}$$, 5 for Λ and $$\overline{\Lambda }$$, 4 for Ξ− and $${\overline{\Xi } }^{+}$$, and 2 for Ω− and $${\overline{\Omega } }^{+}$$. From this, the probability of producing strange hadron multiplets per event is calculated, thereby enabling the extension of the study of strangeness enhancement to extreme situations where several strange quarks hadronize in a single event at midrapidity. Moreover, comparing hadron combinations with different u and d quark compositions and equal overall s quark content, the contribution to the enhancement pattern coming from non-strangeness related mechanisms is isolated. The results are compared with state-of-the-art phenomenological models implemented in commonly used Monte Carlo event generators, including PYTHIA 8 Monash 2013, PYTHIA 8 with QCD-based Color Reconnection and Rope Hadronization (QCD-CR + Ropes), and EPOS LHC, which incorporates both partonic interactions and hydrodynamic evolution. These comparisons show that the new approach dramatically enhances the sensitivity to the different underlying physics mechanisms modeled by each generator.

Abualrob, I J↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamics of heavy quarks in strongly coupled $\mathcal{N}$ = 4 SYM plasma

We calculate the probability distribution P(k) for a heavy quark with velocity v propagating through strongly coupled N = 4 SYM plasma in the ’t Hooft limit (N c → ∞, λ = g 2 N c → ∞) at a temperature T to acquire a momentum k due to interactions with the plasma. This distribution encodes the well-known drag coefficient η D and the transverse and longitudinal momentum diffusion coefficients κ T and κ L . The jet quenching parameter $\hat{q}$ can be extracted from P(k) for v = 1. Going beyond these known Gaussian characteristics of P(k), our calculation determines all of the higher order and mixed moments to leading order in 1/$\sqrt{λ}$ for the first time. These non-Gaussian features of P(k) include qualitatively novel correlations between longitudinal energy loss and transverse momentum broadening at nonzero v. We show that all higher moments scale characteristically with an effective temperature of the boosted plasma in the heavy quark rest frame, and we demonstrate that these non-Gaussian characteristics can be sizable in magnitude and even dominant in physically relevant situations. We use these results to derive a Kolmogorov equation for the evolution of the probability distribution for the total momentum of a heavy quark that propagates through strongly coupled plasma. This evolution equation accounts for all higher order correlations between transverse momentum broadening and longitudinal energy loss, which we have calculated from first principles. It reduces to a Fokker-Planck equation when truncated to only include the effects of η D , κ T and κ L . Remarkably, while heavy quarks do not reach kinetic equilibrium with the plasma if evolved with this Fokker-Planck equation, by showing that the Boltzmann distribution is a static solution of the all-order Kolmogorov equation that we have derived we demonstrate that heavy quarks do reach kinetic equilibrium if evolved with this equation. Our results thus provide a dynamically complete framework for understanding the thermalization of a heavy quark that may be initially far from equilibrium in the strongly coupled N = 4 SYM plasma — as well as new insight into heavy quark transport and equilibration in quark-gluon plasma.

Holography and Hydrodynamics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Clustering and Cliques in Preferential Attachment Random Graphs with Edge Insertion

In this paper, we investigate the global clustering coefficient (a.k.a transitivity) and clique number of graphs generated by a preferential attachment random graph model with an additional feature of allowing edge connections between existing vertices. Specifically, at each time step t, either a new vertex is added with probability f(t), or an edge is added between two existing vertices with probability 1 – f(t). We establish concentration inequalities for the global clustering and clique number of the resulting graphs under the assumption that f(t) is a regularly varying function at infinity with index of regular variation –$\gamma$, where $\gamma$ $\in$ [0, 1). Finally, we also demonstrate an inverse relation between these two statistics: the clique number is essentially the reciprocal of the global clustering coefficient.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning for fundamental spectroscopic and thermodynamic data of actinides and lanthanides

Accurately modeling optical spectra with absolute radiometric intensities is vital for nuclear forensics applications that depend on characterizing optical emissions from energetic nuclear phenomena. This requires precise knowledge of the individual atomic transition probabilities, known as Einstein A-coefficients, for each emission line. Obtaining these values theoretically or experimentally is often impractical due to the complex electronic structures and the number of transitions involved in atoms relevant to nuclear applications. In this study, we explore the use of machine learning to predict the Einstein A coefficients for atomic transitions. Seven models were evaluated that ranged from deep learning to decision tree algorithms, and found that gradient boosting performed best, specifically the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) architecture, achieving a precision of 86% across transitions of 36 elements. Furthermore, the model was cross-validated using published transition probabilities reported in the literature and applied to estimate Pu plasma temperatures from a previous experiment conducted at Savannah River National Laboratory.

Atomic spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2026

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid deflection↗

DOE OSTI2025

Continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine

Here, we propose a continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine (CVQBM) using a powerful energy-based neural network. It can be realized experimentally on a continuous-variable (CV) photonic quantum computer. We used a CV quantum imaginary time evolution (QITE) algorithm to prepare the essential thermal state and then designed the CVQBM to proficiently generate continuous probability distributions. We applied our method to both classical and quantum data. Using real-world classical data, such as synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images, we generated probability distributions. For quantum data, we used the output of CV quantum circuits. We obtained high fidelity and low Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence showing that our CVQBM learns distributions from given data well and generates data sampling from that distribution efficiently. We also discussed the experimental feasibility of our proposed CVQBM. Our method can be applied to a wide range of real-world problems by choosing an appropriate target distribution (corresponding to, e.g., SAR images, medical images, and risk management in finance). Moreover, our CVQBM is versatile and could be programmed to perform tasks beyond generation, such as anomaly detection.

SAR images↗