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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2002

An Overview of PRA with Applications to Aerospace Systems

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a systematic process for evaluating the probabilities and consequences of undesirable events that can occur in a process or system along with providing a measure of the uncertainty associated with these probability estimates. In the past it was looked at with suspicion by many at NASA, perhaps because of bad experiences with unsuccessful quantitative methods during the Apollo era, but since the Challenger accident NASA has mandated that it be used, and it has been very successful. With NASA's new "faster, better, cheaper" philosophy, it is vital that a tool be in place that can help to achieve these goals in the reliability area. This paper describes the history of PRA, gives examples of its aerospace applications to date, and gives suggestions for how it can be used in the future, both for space shuttle upgrades and for totally new technologies such as the Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle.

Sharon E. Navard↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Subjective Assessment of Alternative Mission Architecture Operations Concepts for the Human Exploration of Mars at NASA Using a Three-Dimensional Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model

The primary driver for developing missions to send humans to other planets is to generate significant scientific return. NASA plans human planetary explorations with an acceptable level of risk consistent with other manned operations. Space exploration risks can not be completely eliminated. Therefore, an acceptable level of cost, technical, safety, schedule, and political risks and benefits must be established for exploratory missions. This study uses a three-dimensional multi-criteria decision making model to identify the risks and benefits associated with three alternative mission architecture operations concepts for the human exploration of Mars identified by the Mission Operations Directorate at Johnson Space Center. The three alternatives considered in this study include split, combo lander, and dual scenarios. The model considers the seven phases of the mission including: 1) Earth Vicinity/Departure; 2) Mars Transfer; 3) Mars Arrival; 4) Planetary Surface; 5) Mars Vicinity/Departure; 6) Earth Transfer; and 7) Earth Arrival. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and subjective probability estimation are used to captures the experts belief concerning the risks and benefits of the three alternative scenarios through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes.

Tavana, Madjid↗
NASA NTRS2002

Radar reconnaissance of potentially hazardous asteroids and comets

Groundbased radar is uniquely able to reduce uncertainty in trajectories and physical properties of near-earth objects. Radar can prevent the loss of a newly discovered object caused by the normal decay of orbit knowledge prior to the next optical observing opportunity, can add decades or centuries to the interval over which close Earth approaches can accurately be predicted, can significantly refine collision probability estimates that are based on optical astrometry alone.

asteroids radar↗
NASA NTRS2011

Photolysis of Pure Solid O3 and O2 Films at 193nm

We studied quantitatively the photochemistry of solid O3 and O2 films at 193 nm and 22 K with infrared spectroscopy and microgravimetry. Photolysis of pure ozone destroyed O3, but a small amount of ozone remained in the film at high fluence. Photolysis of pure O2 produced O3 in an amount that increased with photon fluence to a stationary level. For both O2 and O3 films, the O3:O2 ratio at large fluences is ?0.07, about two orders of magnitude larger than those obtained in gas phase photolysis. This enhancement is attributed to the increased photodissociation of O2 due to photoabsorption by O2 dimers, a process significant at solid-state densities. We obtain initial quantum yield for ozone synthesis from solid oxygen, phi (O3) = 0.24 0.06, and quantum yields for destruction of O3 and O2 in their parent solids, phi(-O3) = 1.0 0.2 and phi(-O2) = 0.36 0.1. Combined with known photoabsorption cross sections, we estimate probabilities for geminate recombination of 0.5 0.1 for O3 fragments and 0.88 0.03 for oxygen atoms from O2 dissociation. Using a single parameter kinetic model, we deduce the ratio of reaction cross sections for an O atom with O2 vs. O3 to be 0.1 0.2. The general good agreement of the model with the data suggests the validity of the central assumption of efficient energy and spin relaxation of photofragments in the solid prior to their reactions with other species.

Raut, U.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Gilkey, Kelly M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

L'CO/LFIR Relations with CO Rotational Ladders of Galaxies Across the Herschel SPIRE Archive

We present a catalog of all CO (carbon monoxide) (J (total angular momentum quantum number) equals 1-0 through J equals 13-12), [CI], and [NII] lines available from extragalactic spectra from the Herschel SPIRE (Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver) Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) archive combined with observations of the low-J CO lines from the literature and from the Arizona Radio Observatory. This work examines the relationships between L (sub FIR (Far Infra Red)), L prime (sub CO), and L (sub CO) / L (sub CO, 1-0). We also present a new method for estimating probability distribution functions (PDFs) from marginal signal-to-noise ratio Herschel FTS spectra, which takes into account the instrumental "ringing" and the resulting highly correlated nature of the spectra. The slopes of Log (L (sub FIR)) versus Log (L prime (sub CO)) are linear for all mid- to high-J CO lines. The mid- to high-J CO luminosity relative to CO J equals 1-0 increases with increasing L (sub FIR), indicating higher excitement of the molecular gas, though these ratios do not exceed approximately 100. The luminosities relative to CO J equals 1-0 remain relatively at from J equals 6-5 through J equals13-2, across many orders of magnitude of L (sub FIR). Qualitative comparisons to current theoretical models do not match these flat SLED (spectral line energy distributions) shapes, indicating the need for more comprehensive modeling of the excitation processes of warm molecular gas in nearby galaxies.

Submillimeter Data↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Computationally-Efficient Inverse Approach to Probabilistic Strain-Based Damage Diagnosis

This work presents a computationally-efficient inverse approach to probabilistic damage diagnosis. Given strain data at a limited number of measurement locations, Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling are used to estimate probability distributions of the unknown location, size, and orientation of damage. Substantial computational speedup is obtained by replacing a three-dimensional finite element (FE) model with an efficient surrogate model. The approach is experimentally validated on cracked test specimens where full field strains are determined using digital image correlation (DIC). Access to full field DIC data allows for testing of different hypothetical sensor arrangements, facilitating the study of strain-based diagnosis effectiveness as the distance between damage and measurement locations increases. The ability of the framework to effectively perform both probabilistic damage localization and characterization in cracked plates is demonstrated and the impact of measurement location on uncertainty in the predictions is shown. Furthermore, the analysis time to produce these predictions is orders of magnitude less than a baseline Bayesian approach with the FE method by utilizing surrogate modeling and effective numerical sampling approaches.

Warner, James E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Challenger Tradgedy was Caused by an Apollo Mistake, Terminating Risk Analysis

NASA’s attitude toward risk changed drastically between the Apollo and Space Shuttle design. [1]Apollo engineers were seriously alarmed about riskbecause of the fatal Apollo 1 fire and the fact that the estimated probability of another fatal accident was extremely high. The predictions were so appalling thatmanagement terminated risk analysis to avoid public apprehension. Because risk analysis was not done, the Space Shuttle design accepted excessively high andunknown risk. The immediate cause of the Challengertragedy was the mistaken decision to launch in coldweather that impaired the O-ring seals, but the fundamental cause was the high risk of the shuttle design. Before Challenger, management asserted that the probability of a fatal accident was 1 in 100,000.Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) found a roughly 1 in 100 chance of a shuttle failure.

Harry W Jones↗
NASA NTRS2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Tamsin L. Edwards↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interpretable Machine Learning Models for Autonomous Characterization of Analogue Ocean World Seawater Chemistry and Biosignature Potential Using Isotope Ratio Data

Background: Future missions to ocean worlds, such as Enceladus and Europa, will attempt to characterize the subsurface seawater chemistry and assess the potential for life. Such missions will be equipped with capabilities to precisely measure volatile isotopes in plumes, atmospheres, and exospheres. Motivation: While large isotopic fractionations can indicate a biological source, there are signatures resulting from abiotic geochemical processes that mimic isotopic biosignatures. While machine learning (ML) has the potential to disentangle competing effects and biotic mimicry, high-dimensional isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) data is likely to contain noise/irrelevant features and involve complex statistical interactions that make human inference and interpretation difficult. Further, ML predictions with as far-reaching implications as an extraterrestrial biosignature on an ocean world requires the use of interpretable models (i.e., not “black box” models) with physically and mathematically meaningful feature spaces along with false positive diagnostics. Methods: We use volatile CO2 IRMS data of analogue ocean world seawaters to validate an ML approach to provide biogeochemical context for biosignature detection. We employ a feature selection method called nearest-neighbor projected distance regression (NPDR) that detects statistical interactions and helps elucidate the mechanisms of the Random Forest classification models. Results: We train and validate predictive ML models on volatile CO2 IRMS data of analogue ocean world seawaters to predict major salt components (e.g., MgSO4, NaHCO3), pH, ionic strength, and the presence of biosignatures. Features derived from IRMS measurements are augmented with extracted time-series features. Our results show high test accuracy and interpretability, which is increased by interaction network visualization, sample-wise variable importance scores, and single-sample class probability estimates. We demonstrate an ML mission software solution that triggers autonomous data transmission and biogeochemical sample prediction.

geochemistry↗
NASA NTRS1976

Estimation of the probability of error without ground truth and known a priori probabilities

The probability of error or, alternatively, the probability of correct classification (PCC) is an important criterion in analyzing the performance of a classifier. Labeled samples (those with ground truth) are usually employed to evaluate the performance of a classifier. Occasionally, the numbers of labeled samples are inadequate, or no labeled samples are available to evaluate a classifier's performance; for example, when crop signatures from one area from which ground truth is available are used to classify another area from which no ground truth is available. This paper reports the results of an experiment to estimate the probability of error using unlabeled test samples (i.e., without the aid of ground truth).

Havens, K. A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Estimating the exceedance probability of rain rate by logistic regression

Recent studies have shown that the fraction of an area with rain intensity above a fixed threshold is highly correlated with the area-averaged rain rate. To estimate the fractional rainy area, a logistic regression model, which estimates the conditional probability that rain rate over an area exceeds a fixed threshold given the values of related covariates, is developed. The problem of dependency in the data in the estimation procedure is bypassed by the method of partial likelihood. Analyses of simulated scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and observed electrically scanning microwave radiometer data during the Global Atlantic Tropical Experiment period show that the use of logistic regression in pixel classification is superior to multiple regression in predicting whether rain rate at each pixel exceeds a given threshold, even in the presence of noisy data. The potential of the logistic regression technique in satellite rain rate estimation is discussed.

Chiu, Long S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Estimate of the probability of a lightning strike to the Galileo probe

Lightning strikes to aerospace vehicles occur mainly in or near clouds. As the Galileo entry probe will pass most of its operational life in the clouds of Jupiter, which is known to have lightning activity, the present study is concerned with the risk of a lightning strike to the probe. A strike to the probe could cause physical damage to the structure and/or damage to the electronic equipment aboard the probe. It is thought to be possible, for instance, that the instrument failures which occurred on all four Pioneer Venus entry probes at an altitude of 12 km were due to an external electric discharge. The probability of a lightning strike to the Galileo probe is evaluated. It is found that the estimate of a strike to the probe is only 0.001, which is about the same as the expected failure rate due to other design factors. In the case of entry probes to cloud-covered planets, a consideration of measures for protecting the vehicle and its payload from lightning appears to be appropriate.

Borucki, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Estimating Controller Intervention Probabilities for Optimized Profile Descent Arrivals

Simulations of arrival traffic at Dallas/Fort-Worth and Denver airports were conducted to evaluate incorporating scheduling and separation constraints into advisories that define continuous descent approaches. The goal was to reduce the number of controller interventions required to ensure flights maintain minimum separation distances of 5 nmi horizontally and 1000 ft vertically. It was shown that simply incorporating arrival meter fix crossing-time constraints into the advisory generation could eliminate over half of the all predicted separation violations and more than 80% of the predicted violations between two arrival flights. Predicted separation violations between arrivals and non-arrivals were 32% of all predicted separation violations at Denver and 41% at Dallas/Fort-Worth. A probabilistic analysis of meter fix crossing-time errors is included which shows that some controller interventions will still be required even when the predicted crossing-times of the advisories are set to add a 1 or 2 nmi buffer above the minimum in-trail separation of 5 nmi. The 2 nmi buffer was shown to increase average flight delays by up to 30 sec when compared to the 1 nmi buffer, but it only resulted in a maximum decrease in average arrival throughput of one flight per hour.

continous descent arrivals↗