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At least 127 records · Page 7

Bringing Inorganic Carbon to Life: Developing Model Metalloenzymes for C1 Conversion Reactions

The global carbon cycle is carefully balanced through the use of specialized enzymes in plants, algae, bacteria, and archaea. A primordial metabolic pathway for the conversion of inorganic carbon into cellular biomass uses a large, nickel-containing enzyme called carbon monoxide dehydrogenase (CODH)/acetyl coenzyme A synthase (ACS). This system fixes carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into carbon monoxide (CO) at the CODH site. The carbon monoxide is then used to generate acetyl coenzyme A, a biological building block, through a key carbon-carbon bond forming step at the nickel site in ACS. Despite the significance of these processes in the context of energy conversion, the fundamental chemistry underlying these transformations has remained elusive, in part due to the complexity of the natural enzyme. To better understand the principles governing these biological processes, which represent one-carbon (C 1 ) activation reactions, this project will develop functional models of CODH and ACS based on modifications to a small metalloprotein scaffold. Comprehensive characterization of these systems using advanced spectroscopic and biophysical techniques will reveal key elements responsible for conferring high levels of activity to the model systems, with implications for gaining insight into the mechanisms of the natural enzymes. Moreover, the principles learned from this research can be used to guide design of robust catalysts for efficient conversion of CO 2 and CO into liquid fuels.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS

Implementation of WBG devices in circuits - Electric Drive Technologies Project (Final Technical Report)

The objective of the project is to ensure that SiC devices are reliable and rugged as required in automotive applications for operational life of 300,000 hrs and create new device designs to address various weaknesses in currently available commercial devices. OSU has worked closely with SUNY Polytechnic. OSU has carried out the reliability and ruggedness evaluations of commercial devices as well as those fabricated by SUNY Polytechnic, discussed the results with SUNY Poly, and collaborated with the PI at SUNY Poly to improve the designs with respect to reliability/ruggedness. OSU work focused on reliability/ruggedness evaluation of SiC devices by individually testing them and then evaluate them in a 10 kW, 3 phase inverter system built with a specific purpose of stressing devices using realistic drive cycles such as a 10-minute hill climb. It should be noted that the primary purpose of the 10 kW inverter is to provide a platform for stressing the SiC devices under accelerated but realistic drive conditions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Wide-Bandgap Semiconductor Amplifiers for Fusion Plasma Heating and Control

This paper discusses power electronics developed under the ARPA-E GAMOW program to support nuclear fusion power production. The goal of this project was to develop and assess the potential for wide-bandgap (WBG) semiconductor devices in power electronics to enable high-efficiency and high-voltage solid-state systems for fusion plasma generation, heating, and control. The power electronics use an architecture in which multiple high-power boards can be combined to produce megawatt-level power, where using multiple boards provides high reliability. Two main areas of power electronics boards are developed in this project for fusion plasma heating and control applications: (1) pulse generation and control and (2) radiofrequency generation. The first area is for boards capable of driving high-voltage millisecond pulses at high duty cycles. The envisioned application of these pulses is in plasma control of magnetohydrodynamic instabilities, plasma position, and edge-localized modes. Pulse-width modulation allows for the implementation of a wide variety of linear and nonlinear control systems. The boards developed for this project could actuate control coils based on digital input signals and can be parallelized to provide megawatts of output power. The design of the pulse generator is a low-side load switch. A load switch was designed and constructed that utilized 2-kV-rated field-effect transistor (FET)-based cascodes developed by Qorvo under this project to perform initial testing of these cascodes. The second area is being implemented using class E amplifiers with WBG devices and a reactance steering network to handle inductive or capacitive plasma loads. Applications include ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) and high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) heating. A class E reactance steering network is demonstrated in modeling and experiment with a resistive-inductive load that models an inductively-coupled plasma. Power combining of boards with class E reactance steering networks is also simulated and demonstrated experimentally, to enable scaling up to high power. Modeling of high-power-density cooling and remaining useful life is conducted to enable reliable, effectively cooled high-power electronics for fusion applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

How To Determine and Verify Operations and Maintenance Savings in Energy Savings Performance Contracts

Operations and maintenance (O&M) savings frequently occur in energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs). During FY 2022, 37% of reported annual cost savings for projects awarded under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ESPC indefinite delivery indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contracts and in the performance period were due to O&M or other energy- and/or water-related cost savings, with the balance (63%) from utility cost savings (i.e., energy or water cost savings). Sometimes the energy- and water-related cost savings are acknowledged and included in payments within ESPCs; other times, for various reasons, they are not. As presented in this guide, FEMP recommends including energy- and water-related cost savings that are O&M (including related repair and replacement) savings in the financial aspects of an ESPC, to the extent such savings can be documented. Inclusion of these savings will help augment project scopes and/or lower interest costs (by shortening financing terms). However, there is a burden of proof as to what constitutes acceptability in O&M savings that needs to be carefully considered and documented in individual projects. Beyond promoting a key tenet used in U.S. federal performance contracting—that savings must be from actual budgets and therefore based on the level of O&M that is actually occurring, not what should have been performed—FEMP also recommends good practice in establishing and documenting O&M baselines, formulating the rationale for baseline adjustments during the performance period, and conducting ongoing verification activities. This document concludes with five examples of how O&M savings may be handled, in situations ranging from the partial displacement of O&M contracts to consolidation and “virtualization” of servers in data centers. A key theme that permeates this guide is the importance of thoroughly documenting all conditions and assumptions used in the development of and accounting for O&M costs and savings throughout the ESPC life cycle, from baseline-setting to measurement and verification (M&V) of the savings during each year of the performance period. Doing so not only prevents internal claims of non-performance (especially in the case of staff turnover during the contract term), but also simplifies ordering agency and energy service company (ESCO) response in the event of scrutiny from oversight organizations, such as government audits. While this guide focuses on federal ESPCs, it may also be applicable when O&M savings are included in utility energy service contracts (UESCs) and non-federal ESPCs.

Voss, Phil

Dual-loop Solvent-based CCS for Net Negative CO 2 Emissions with Lower Cost

This final technical report details the successful design, construction, and operational validation of an innovative dual-loop CO 2 capture technology designed to achieve deep decarbonization (>99%) from Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plants that results in the electricity with carbon intensity of approximate 42 kg CO 2 -eq/MWh, less than the electricity produced by solar PV. The integrated process couples a primary aqueous solvent (in this project, a water lean solvent – WLS) absorption loop for bulk CO 2 removal with a secondary potassium hydroxide (KOH) polishing loop featuring electrochemical regeneration. This architecture leverages the higher exergy efficiency of the primary loop while utilizing the fastest kinetic of the secondary loop to capture dilute residual CO 2 , achieving an overall capture rate of 99.9% and co-producing pure hydrogen after moisture being condensed and dehydrated. Technical feasibility was established through a comprehensive 2,000-hour experimental campaign on a bench-scale fully-integrated unit (using 4” absorber and 4” stripper) with the feeding flue gas flowrate in the range of 8-20 cfm, confirming the attainment of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 4. The project executed extensive parametric testing followed by 1,000 hours of continuous steady-state testing, demonstrating exceptional process stability with the electrochemical regenerator exhibiting less than a 10% reduction in electrical conductivity over the duration of the campaign. Operational characterization gathering on the bench unit revealed distinct energy profiles for the hybrid system: the primary loop required approximately 280 kJ mol -1 for bulk removal, while the polishing loop required approximately 1,600 kJ mol -1 specifically when reducing dilute CO 2 concentrations from ~740 ppm down to <50 ppm. (Please note those energy values/numbers can only be viewed as relative relationship and should not be extrapolated as absolute values required for CO 2 capture). Furthermore, dynamic testing validated the system’s flexibility for utility applications, demonstrating a rapid process response time of <30 minutes to changes in flue gas flowrate. Emission monitoring confirmed that the dual-loop architecture effectively mitigates solvent losses, utilizing a water wash to remove entrained aerosols to <1 ppm. The Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) indicates a cost of capture of $\$$59.3/tonne and a Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of 71.7 $\$$/MWh at the overall capture efficiency of 99.8% of total carbon in the flue gas stream, with sensitivity analysis identifying an economic optimum when the primary loop captures 97% of the total CO 2 . A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) confirms the technology’s potential for net-negative emissions, determining a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 52 kg CO 2 -eq/MWh—significantly lower than the baseline—which further decreases to 42 kg CO 2 -eq/MWh when crediting the displacement of conventional hydrogen production.

03 NATURAL GAS

Technology Impact and Resource Assessment of Existing and Planned U.S. Biofuel Production: Life Cycle Water Consumption, Water Stress, Land Use, and Criteria Air Pollutants

Biofuels have the potential to strengthen the U.S. energy supply, enhance energy security, and promote economic development. As the United States continues to expand biofuel production, quantifying resource requirements and location-specific constraints is crucial for planning, siting, and technology development to support long-term viability. Accordingly, this work assesses the life cycle resource consumption (water consumption, and land use), water stress and criteria air pollutants associated with expanded U.S. biofuel production over the 2020–2035 period, based on producers’ plans. We perform a bottom-up technology impact assessment and resource assessment by integrating facility-level production statistics with Argonne’s Research and Development (R&D) GREET model and county-level water-stress characterization factors from Available Water Remaining for the United States (AWARE-US) model. Results suggest that by 2035, biofuels could meaningfully contribute to U.S. energy demand, driven primarily by first-generation and waste-based feedstocks with plans for substantial capacity expansion, although cellulosic and e-fuel technologies remain limited. However, growth must be managed to minimize impacts on water resources and land use. These impacts vary by fuel type and facility location, specifically, projected expansion increases water consumption and can elevate water-stress impacts in certain regions like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and North Texas. Direct land use also increases overall, particularly for first-generation feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. These findings underscore the need for continued technological improvements and innovative strategies to manage resource demands as the industry scales and to support complementary deployment within the evolving U.S. energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Techno-Economic, Feasibility, and Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Propane: 2025 Update

To clarify the current and future landscape for renewable propane (RP) production, this work evaluates the value proposition of recovering RP from existing and planned hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) biorefineries and surveys emerging technologies under development or deployment. HEFA biorefineries co-produce a propane-rich fuel gas stream, normally used to meet HEFA process heat requirements, from which propane can be recovered and sold to create an additional revenue stream alongside liquid transportation fuels such as renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This report updates and extends a 2022 analysis of RP recovery from HEFA facilities by escalating capital and operating costs to 2024 prices, incorporating recent policy developments (including the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit), evaluating RP recovery for both RD- and SAF-focused HEFA facilities at two scales (3,000 and 75,000 barrels per day of feedstock), and quantifying the impact of RP recovery on HEFA liquid-fuel carbon intensity (CI) and associated tax credits using the 45ZCF-GREET model. For a 3,000 BPD RD-focused HEFA facility, approximately 3.5 million gallons per year (MGPY) of RP can be recovered; in this base case, the estimated payback period is 18 months based on the total installed cost of the RP recovery equipment and 36 months based on the total capital investment for the entire RP recovery project. The payback period is slightly shorter for the analogous SAF-focused configuration (approximately 4.3 MGPY RP). Sensitivity analysis shows that CAPEX magnitude, RP recovery plant scale, and CI-driven tax credit valuations are the dominant determinants of project viability. RP recovery may increase the CI of HEFA liquid fuels, which can reduce liquid-fuel tax credits (a key revenue stream for the HEFA biorefinery) and lengthen payback periods. However, RP recovery generally remains economically favorable across a wide range of plausible scenarios and market conditions. The report also summarizes emerging pathways that could expand future RP supply.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Assessment of Benefits of Solid-State Advanced Manufacturing Processes for Nuclear Energy Products

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technology (AMMT) program develops cross cutting technologies in support of a broad range of nuclear reactor technologies and maintains U.S. leadership in materials and manufacturing technologies for nuclear energy applications. This overall project provides the U.S. Department of Energy a critical feasibility study comparison of three solid-state processes to other AM processes, thereby providing the feasibility of the solid-state processes examined to manufacture 316H SS and ODS steel components: • Fused-filament fabrication (FFF): This work provides an initial evaluation of the impact of powder morphology and sizes on the FFF process, and the feasibility and adaptability for different material systems, to use FFF for ODS steels and 316 SS. • Shear-assisted processing and extrusion (ShAPE): Specifically for this portion of the project on ShAPE tube forming, the objectives will be to determine the feasibility to direct tube forming of high tensile strength steel tubing, specifically for ODS steel to determine the effect of the patented extrusion process on the dispersoids of the ODS material. Additionally, as often ODS powders are mechanically alloyed and therefore more platelike or angular, this feasibility was to explore the impact on the optimization process and initial feasibility of direct tube forming. • Cold spray and friction stir additive manufacturing as a stretch goal: Bulk and near net shape manufacturing processes for high-temperature, high-strength alloys are needed. Additionally, cold spray techniques can be applied in-situ at the operational level for repair and can provide multiple benefits to the nuclear industry. These tasks aim to provide information to show benefits of cold spray during the full life cycle, namely research and development, product manufacturing, and repair to mention a few key points.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

The importance of cycle-by-cycle data in performing rapid battery technology development and validation

Lithium-ion battery (LiB) technology is playing a crucial role in transforming the predominantly fossil fuel-based transportation and stationary storage sectors to achieve a low-carbon economy. Rapid innovation in the LiB materials to electrode to cell design is happening to satisfy the performance, life, and safety metrics required by those myriads of applications. Lately, advanced analytics, such as machine-learning or artificial intelligence (ML/AI) techniques, are being used more frequently to aid in expedited LiB technology development, performance validation, and life prediction. The success of these techniques often relies on a large volume of well-defined and high-quality battery test data. On the other hand, most battery developers and research and development (R&D) communities are still following a classical approach to develop batteries, which is running calendar- and/or cycle-aging tests, performing reference performance tests (RPTs), and conducting post-mortem analyses periodically without paying attention to the wealth of data often not collected during the calendar or cycle life aging tests. This sparse data collection approach is time- and resource-intensive, requiring data capture and evaluation of months to years of RPT data to diagnose accurate battery state of performance, health, and safety. Even so, the underlying aging modes and mechanisms can be missed. If collected properly, battery test data during cycling or calendaring can be efficiently combined with ML/AI techniques to create powerful tools in the rapid diagnosis of battery state of performance, health, and safety along with insights into underlying aging modes and mechanisms. In this report, we discuss the importance of effective cycle-by-cycle (CBC) data collection with example case studies. Within a reasonable timeframe, RPT data are often inadequate in capturing many of the crucial battery aging dynamics, which often predominantly show up in CBC test data. Finally, we also show examples of ML/AI techniques that use CBC data in rapid diagnosis and projection of LiB state of health (SOH) to motivate the scientific community in collecting and using CBC data to facilitate expeditious technology development and validation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Technology Case Study: Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Analysis for Microalgae Conversion Pathways to Fuels and Products

This technology case study report details the cost and sustainability prospects for an emerging feedstock - microalgae - converted to fuels and products via a fractionation and upgrading approach termed combined algae processing (CAP). Detailed techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA) are conducted for the conversion of farmed algae biomass, with two primary scenarios considering the conversion of either high-compositional-quality biomass enriched in lipids (high-lipid [HL]) or lower-quality biomass enriched in protein (high-protein [HP]). Each scenario employs a different biorefinery configuration tailored towards extracting the maximum value from the given biomass composition. The HL scenario produces fuels and non-isocyanate polyurethane (NIPU) as the primary products, while the HP scenario products fuels and a residual solid coproduct which can be used as a co-feed for producing thermoplastics. The results for the HL scenario were particularly promising, with a minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of $\$$3.68 per gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) and fuel GHG emissions translating to 54%-76% reduction compared to petroleum fuels depending on the coproduct handling method used. In contrast, the HP scenario faced more challenges in producing biofuels economically, projecting an MFSP of $\$$7.92/GGE despite significant revenues from the residual algae solids. LCA results for the HP case reflected a 24% reduction potential in biorefinery-level GHG emissions. However, these GHG reductions were primarily associated with the thermoplastic coproduct, which accounted for 93% of all biorefinery outputs by mass. Using a process-level allocation method, carbon intensity results were less promising, indicating a net increase in fuel GHG emissions versus petroleum fuels and highlighting the reliance of this scenario on the thermoplastic coproduct.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Electrochemical Production of Highly Valuable Carbon Nanotubes from Flue-Gas Sourced CO 2

The overarching goal of the project was to demonstrate a technology at pilot-scale that enables a net reduction in CO 2 and the production of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with material properties comparable to commercially available CNTs at a selling price of ~80-90% less than what is available in the current market. The objectives were: (1) demonstrate the ability to utilize synthetic and real flue gas provided by a utility to produce CNTs through the SkyNano’s novel electrochemical process; (2) produce CNTs at the pilot-scale (0.2 kg/hr) using industrial flue gas that exhibit properties consistent with those available on the market today in industrial quantities, including median diameters of <30 nm, purity of at least 95% CNTs in final product, and high crystallinity (I D /I G < 1, measured via Raman spectroscopy); and (3) demonstrate the process to be sustainable and economically viable through the completion of a techno-economic analysis (TEA) and a life-cycle analysis (LCA).

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS

FUEL PERFORMANCE STUDIES AT IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY MAKING USE OF THE BYRON FUEL SHIPMENT

In December of 2023 a shipment of commercially irradiated fuel rods from the Byron Generating Station in Illinois was successfully shipped to the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The make-up of the rods includes a mix of cladding types from traditional ZirloTM, advanced zirconium alloys, and chrome coated ZirloTM. Burnups range from regular end of life values to over 70 GWd/MTU rod average. The R&D plan for the rods involves multiple projects from developing licensing data for new claddings to integral transient tests to support burnup extension efforts in the United States. The R&D began in early 2024 with the nondestructive examinations of the rods after which they will be sectioned for microscopy, mechanical testing, and analytical chemistry. Additionally, many rod segments will be refabricated into new test pins and inserted into a static water capsule for integral Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) and Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) testing at the TREAT reactor.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Biofuels as Heavy Fuel Oil Substitutes in the Maritime Sector: Findings and Potential Pathways

The United States Department of Energy has commissioned four national laboratories to evaluate the feasibility of biofuels in the maritime sector. This effort is briefly described including the overall project goals, structure and aims. The large two-stroke crosshead engines used to power large merchant vessels were of particular interest since they can burn lower combustion quality fuels relative to four-stroke engines. This characteristic allows for consideration of pyrolysis oils and hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) oils which are feedstock agnostic and, in the raw state, are more economical compared to distillate drop-in fuels. Pyrolysis and HTL oils are collectively known as bio-intermediates since they require additional processing for use in distillate fuel systems. The key limiting feature is that these bio-intermediate fuels will cause asphaltene precipitation when blended with heavy fuel oils (HFOs) such as very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) unless they are upgraded to remove water and oxygenates. Economics are the key driver at this point in time, and preliminary techno-economic analyses (TEAs) indicate that bio-intermediates have potentially lower cost relative to other biofuels such as biodiesel and renewable diesel. Additionally, life cycle analyses (LCAs) of feedstocks and pathways show the life cycle carbon reduction benefit relative to heavy fuel oils. In addition to TEA and LCA results, we also present on the technical feasibility of these fuels. These studies have focused on the properties of biofuel blends with VLSFO that are critical to the fuel systems of maritime vessels fueled with HFOs. These properties include the compatibility with fuel system metals, viscosity, and blend stability. Aging studies with blends of VLSFO with biodiesel, HTL, and pyrolysis oils are also presented. Future efforts being planned to conduct additional biofuel testing, including the use of biofuels as pilot fuels in zero carbon shipping options fueled with ammonia and methanol, ship-based demonstrations, and bioresource competition studies.

Kass, Michael

Rapid Flux Phenotyping to Accelerate Metabolic Engineering of Cyanobacteria

This project established a rapid flux phenotyping platform to accelerate metabolic engineering of cyanobacterial hosts. As proof of principle, we applied this platform to optimize cyanobacterial production of isobutyraldehyde and ethylene in Synechococcus PCC 7942, as well as lysine and fatty acids in the fast-growing strain S ynechococcus PCC 7002. By matching the throughput of strain characterization to the rate of strain generation, this research provided the foundation for a rational “design-build-test-learn” cycle for metabolic engineering of cyanobacteria and other bioenergy-relevant microbes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES

Green Methanol via an Integrated Direct Air Capture, CO 2 Electrolyzer, and Hydrogenation Reactor

This project pioneered a groundbreaking reactor design to produce green methanol by harnessing the electrochemical CO 2 reduction reaction (eCO 2 RR), a cornerstone of power-to-fuels technology. The effort integrated three innovative technologies to achieve carbon-neutral methanol production at a target cost of under $\$$800/ton: 1. Direct Air Capture (DAC): Using a cutting-edge sorbent material developed at Holocene, scalable models were developed to integrate captured atmospheric CO₂ into the reactor system. 2. Intermediate-Temperature CO 2 Electrolyzer: Developed by the University of Tennessee (UTK), this electrolyzer utilizes a cost-effective, proton-conducting solid acid electrolyte (CsH 2 PO 4 , CDP) and a mixed-metal oxide cathode. It achieves high faradaic efficiencies (>98%) by effectively suppressing hydrogen evolution at high current densities, converting CO 2 to CO with remarkable selectivity. 3. Catalysis and Reactor Engineering: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) contributed world-class expertise in heterogeneous catalysis and reactor design. Their advanced ASPEN modeling drove systems integration and supported techno-economic and life cycle analyses. This effort was further bolstered by partnerships with industry leaders Air Company and Plug Power, who provided critical guidance on scaling, systems engineering, and the integration of water electrolyzers into large-scale operations. During Phase 1, the team focused on modeling and validating a lab-scale reactor demonstrating the feasibility of the integrated approach. Key accomplishments include a 52% increase in current density at 0.8 V while maintaining >98% CO faradaic efficiency, successful 10× scale-up of the electrolyzer with performance within 5% of coin-cell results, best-in-class durability (168-hour test at 0.6 V with 0.14 mA/cm 2 -h degradation), validated TEA confirming the $\$$800/ton methanol target, and completed preliminary LCA showing potential for net-negative GHG emissions under renewable energy scenarios.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS

Engineering Methanogenic Microbiomes to Redirect Flux to Biomass

In this study, we present a method for acquiring and characterizing novel microbial consortia that regulates methanogens and methanotrophs through selective cultivation and metagenomic analysis of indigenous microorganisms in the environment. In addition, we present the work performed as part of this project to model the pathways that act as limiting factors in microbial methane metabolism based on a carbon cycle model. In this report, we describe the methods for selective cultivation of methane-metabolism-related microorganisms from environmental samples, the method for monitoring their methane consumption performance, and the method and results for verifying their functions using quantitative PCR and metagenomics techniques. The microbial consortia containing methanotrophs were obtained through selective cultivation and molecular biological verification, and their methane consumption performance was evaluated. In addition, the potential of the existence of bacteriophages interacting with methane metabolism-related microorganisms was identified through metagenomic sequencing.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling

Connecting Nitrogen Transformations Mediated by the Rhizosphere Microbiome to Perennial Cropping System Productivity in Marginal Lands

The demand for energy from biofuel production is increasing, prompting concerns about the environmental impact and long-term sustainability of bioenergy cropping systems. These cropping systems will make up much of our future landscapes, and threaten to take the place of food cropping systems. Many life cycle analyses of bioenergy sustainability focus on carbon accrual and budgets, since they want to maximize carbon accrual while producing alternative fuel. Less attention has been given to nitrogen (N) dynamics in these systems. N is the most commonly limiting nutrient for plants, but applying nitrogen fertilizer- as we do for most cropping systems – is harmful to the environment, energetically costly, and produces greenhouse gases. In other words, adding nitrogen by fertilizer bioenergy systems could add to the very problems (climate change) it is trying to address. This is especially true for the areas that are proposed for bioenergy systems: marginal lands. These more degraded lands do not complete with food crops, but do have limited nitrogen. If we are to use these marginal lands for bioenergy, we need to understand the mechanisms regulating nutrient acquisition, and identify ways that bioenergy crops can get nitrogen in sustainable ways. Nutrient acquisition in the soil is performed by microbes in the root zone, or rhizosphere. Microbes can either mineralize nitrogen in the soil (from organic forms) or fix nitrogen from the air, in a process called nitrogen fixation. The goal of our project was thus to understand how the rhizosphere microbiome provides nutrients to bioenergy crops on marginal lands. We focus especially on the process of nitrogen fixation, since it has potential to get “fertilizer for free” that has much less environmental harm. We investigated this goal using sites from the DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC) in the upper Midwest, and associated lab and ‘omics methods. We group our findings into three major areas. First, we showed that nitrogen fixation, the conversion of N2 gas from the air to ammonium that is usable by plants, is performed in bioenergy soils, and benefits switchgrass crops. While more well-studied in leguminous plants, free-living nitrogen fixation can occur in some systems, and represents a potential opportunity to gain ‘free’ sustainable nitrogen source. We identified the nitrogen fixing bacteria that were most active in providing switchgrass with N, and showed that the drivers of nitrogen fixation occurred at a microscale; it is not well-predicted by bulk variables like soil moisture or plant phenology. Second, we showed that nitrogen fixation is not suppressed by long-term fertilizer. We expected that plentiful nitrogen would reduce the symbiotic relationship between nitrogen fixers and plants, and ‘downregulate’ fixation. We did not find evidence for this, either after long-term fertilizer in the field, or short-term fertilizer in the greenhouse. Finally, we identified the root exudates, carbon compounds that are emitted from the root, that best stimulate nitrogen fixation. We found that carbohydrates were better at stimulating fixation than organic acids. We expected these exudates to be emitted from the plant in periods of high N demand, but we found they are emitted when N is plentiful. This suggests that the stimulation of N fixation by plants is a passive process. Overall, we show that nitrogen fixation has potential to support bioenergy cropping system, and future management could develop ways to maximize it. However, this may not be best achieved via the plant – we found very little evidence of a ‘transactional’ system by which plants are controlling when and where nitrogen fixation is stimulated. It will be better to understand how management practices like planting and fertilizer application affect the microscale soil dynamics, which will determine nitrogen fixation rates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES