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Simulated Disruptions of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation has exhibited remarkable stability over the observational record—until a well-documented 2015/16 disruption and an emerging disruption in 2020/21. The possibility that disruptions are more frequent in a changing climate is important to consider, as the QBO affects predictability, stratospheric composition, and surface weather. However, this possibility is challenging to assess for a variety of reasons. For instance, the 2015/16 disruption has been attributed to anomalous easterly momentum flux from extratropical waves. By comparison, the 2020/21 disruption involves anomalous westerly forcing, less likely to originate from the same mechanism. We present a rich variety of QBO disruptions that spontaneously arise in integrations of the hightop NASA GISS Model E2.2. The disruptions loosely fall into several categories, some of which are analogous to the 2015/16 disruption and the 2020 disruption, as well as a previously undocumented possible disruption in 1988. Several factors appear to influence QBO disruptions in the model: natural variability, climate change, tropical SSTs, volcanic eruptions, and model physics/tuning. Although QBO representation is an ongoing challenge for models, the results point to a model-independent framework for assessment of disruptions.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗

NASA NTRS2014

Modifications of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation by a Geoengineering Perturbation of the Stratospheric Aerosol Layer

This paper examines the impact of geoengineering via stratospheric sulfate aerosol on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Chemistry Climate Model. We performed four 30-year simulations with a continuous injection of sulfur dioxide on the equator at 0 degree longitude. The four simulations differ by the amount of sulfur dioxide injected (5Tg per year and 2.5 Tg per year) and the altitude of the injection (16km-25km and 22km-25km). We find that such an injection dramatically alters the quasi-biennial oscillation, prolonging the phase of easterly shear with respect to the control simulation. In the case of maximum perturbation, i.e. highest stratospheric aerosol burden, the lower tropical stratosphere is locked into a permanent westerly QBO phase. This locked QBO westerly phase is caused by the increased aerosol heating and associated warming in the tropical lower stratosphere.

Geoengineering↗

NASA NTRS2021

The impact of increasing stratospheric radiative damping on the quasi-biennial oscillation period

Stratospheric radiative damping increases as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration rises. We use the one-dimensional mechanistic models of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to conduct sensitivity experiments and find that the simulated QBO period shortens due to the enhancing of radiative damping in the stratosphere. This result suggests that increasing stratospheric radiative damping due to rising CO2 may play a role in determining the QBO period in a warming climate along with wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity, both of which also respond to increasing CO2.

Stratospheric Radiative Damping↗

DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the chemistry and transport impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical winds perturbs stratospheric ozone throughout much of the atmosphere via changes in transport of ozone and other trace gases, as well as via temperature changes, both of which alter ozone chemistry. Attributing these causes of QBO–ozone variability may provide insights into model-to-model differences that contribute to ozone simulation. Here we develop a novel metric of steady-state ozone (SSO) to separate these effects: SSO calculates the local steady-state response of ozone due to the changes in temperature, chemical species, and overhead ozone column; the response due to circulation change is presumed when SSO shows no response. It is applied to the nudged Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) with interactive ozone chemistry to demonstrate its validity. The E3SMv2 simulations nudged to reanalysis data produced reasonable wind and ozone patterns, especially in the tropics. Consistent with previous studies, we find clear demarcations with pressure. Ozone perturbations in the upper stratosphere (<6 hPa) are predicted by temperature changes; those between 6 and 20 hPa are predicted by NO y changes, and those in the lower stratosphere show no temperature or NO y response and are presumably driven by circulation changes. These results are important for diagnosing model-to-model discrepancy in QBO–ozone response and enhancing the reliability of ozone projections.

Xie, Jinbo [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory↗

NASA NTRS1979

On the dynamic forcing of short-term climate fluctuations by feedback mechanisms

Various internal feedback mechanisms in the ocean atmosphere system were studied. A variability pattern of sea surface temperature with a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) was detected off the coast of Senegal, in the Gulf of Guinea and even in the Gulf Stream as it leaves the North American continental shelf. Possible physical connections between some of these QBO's were pointed out by a hypothetical feedback model. Interaction of a QBO with the annual cycle may lead to beating frequencies resembling climatic trends of a duration of several years.

Reiter, E. R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Seasonal variations of total ozone revealed by the Nimbus-4 BUV data set

Backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) data from the Nimbus-4 spacecraft for the period 1970-1977 have been processed to a refined level. The seasonal and interannual variations of total ozone are examined on a global scale, using daily zonal means of 10 deg latitude bands and a time-latitude cross section. A harmonic analysis was performed on the daily zonal means and the amplitude, days of peak ozone values, and percentage of variance were computed for the annual, semiannual and higer harmonics for several years and each year. A clear quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was revealed from the tropics to midlatitudes after removing the mean annual wave. Asymmetries in the annual wave in the two hemispheres found earlier for the period 1970-1972 persist through the entire observation period. Interannual variations appear to be the result of the QBO of ozone from low to midlatitudes. Asymmetries in the QBO amplitude phase, and period were also detected in the two hemispheres.

Hilsenrath, E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Distribution of major stratospheric warmings in relation to the quasi-biennial oscillation

Data from 1953 to the present indicate that major warmings in the Northern Hemisphere winter have not occurred when the equatorial monthly mean zonal winds are deep westerly (i.e., westerly over more than about 5/8 of the 10-85 mb layer). Sixteen winters have had a major warming in the last 35 years. Six January-February periods had deep equatorial westerlies but did not experience a major warming. Major warmings do not require deep equatorial easterlies, nor is the occurrence of a major warming significantly correlated with the sign of the zonal mean wind at any particular level between 10 and 50 mb, although more than half of the observed major warmings have occurred when the equatorial flow is easterly at a given level between 10 and 50 mb. A more relevant quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) statistic may be found in the depth of QBO wind regimes. The previously proposed connection between the equatorial QBO and the major warmings of the Northern Hemisphere winter (Holton and Tan, 1980 and 1982) is supported by these observations.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Influence of solar activity on middle atmosphere associated with phases of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation

Earlier studies on the influence of solar activity variations within a 11-year solar cycle on temperature changes in the middle atmosphere revealed that while the temperature in the mesosphere showed strong responses to changes in solar activity, the stratosphere remained almost unaffected. Recent studies showed that when the temperature data were grouped into east or west phase of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in stratospheric zonal wind, significant relationships of temperature in the lower stratosphere and troposphere could be obtained with 10.7 cm solar radio flux. Positive correlations in high latitude regions and negative correlations in mid-latitude and tropical regions were obtained during winter when the QBO was in its west phase. During the east phase, converse relationships were indicated. These results inspired this study on the response of solar activity in 11-year cycle on the temperature structure of the middle atmosphere in the two phases of equatorial QBO of zonal wind at 50 mb, in tropics, mid-latitude and antarctic regions.

Mohanakumar, K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The interannual variability of polar stratospheric clouds and related parameters in Antarctica during September and October

Antarctic polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) sightings by the orbiting SAM II sensor during September and October show a pronounced quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal, and October sightings have increased markedly over the past 10 years in years of westerly QBO phase. The QBO in PSC frequency is likely to affect the rate of Antarctic heterogeneous chemical processes and, hence, ozone depletion. Studies of the observed long-term temperature trend suggest that the decadal PSC trend probably results from the ozone decline, through its effect on stratospheric heating rates. A more detailed analysis of data from 1986 to 1987 shows that there were more PSCs in 1987, and that they persisted much later into the spring season as compared to 1986. Qualitatively similar behavior was found for the OClO column abundances and 18-km ozone depletion observed at McMurdo Station during these 2 years. These observations suggest that both the intensity and duration of heterogeneous chemical processes are likely greater during colder OBQ-westerly phase years.

Poole, Lamont R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Coupling of the quasi-biennial oscillation and the extratropical circulation in the stratosphere through planetary wave transport

The effects of tropical winds on the extratropical circulation are examined using calculations of eddy transport with tropical flow that is representative of the easterly and westerly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). A dependence of extratropical circulation on tropical winds and the QBO is shown to originate in planetary wave transport. Also, the effects of low latitude flow on high latitude circulation and the behavior of the vortex in opposite phases of the QBO are examined.

O'Sullivan, Donal↗

NASA NTRS1991

Quasi-biennial modulation of planetary-wave fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere winter

Using 25 years of National Meteorological Center (NMC) data for 1964-88 the relation between tropical and extratropical quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) was examined for zonally averaged quantities and planetary-wave Eliassen-Palm fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The extratropical QBO discussed by Holton and Tan (1980) existed in both temporal halves of the dataset. Autocorrelation analysis demonstrated that it was an important mode of interannual variability in the extratropical winter stratosphere. Correlation with the tropics was strongest when 40-mb equatorial winds were used to define the tropical QBO. Easterly phase at 40 mb implied a weaker than normal polar night jet and warmer than normal polar temperature and vice versa. An opposite relationship was obtained using 10-mb equatorial winds. The association between tropical and extratropical QBOs was observed in about 90 percent of the winters and was statistically significant. It is shown that planetary-wave Eliassen-Palm fluxes were generally consistent with the extratropical QBO. These fluxes were more (less) convergent in the midlatitude (subtropical) upper stratosphere in the 40-mb east (= easterly) phase category relative to the west category.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Modes of interannual variability in the stratosphere

During 1964-91, stratospheric temperature and circulation in Northern Hemisphere winter varied interannually on time scales from 2 to about 12 years. A substantial percentage of December-February interannual variance was correlated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Additional monthly variance could be accounted for by quasi-decadal oscillation and QBO/low-frequency modulation. The QBO was the largest and most consistent of these signals, and its decadal modulation explains an apparent correlation with the solar cycle depending on the sign of the QBO - an interpretation supported by principal component analysis.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Components of interannual ozone change based on Nimbus 7 TOMS data

A multiple regression statistical model is applied to estimate the latitude and seasonal dependences of the solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and anthropogenic trend components of stratospheric total ozone change using 13.2 years of Nimbus 7 TOMS data. The characteristics of the linear trend component are in agreement with earlier studies. The QBO regression coefficient is significantly different from zero at high southern latitudes in the Austral spring supporting earlier evidence that the Antarctic ozone depletion is modulated by the QBO. The existence of a solar cycle component is indicated by empirical studies of model residuals and by the approximate agreement of the derived global mean solar coefficient amplitude with photochemical calculations. Initial estimates for the latitude dependence of the solar coefficient suggest higher amplitudes with increasing latitude, especially in the Southern Hemisphere in spring. The statistical model predicts a return to more rapid ozone depletions during the next 4 years as solar minimum is approached.

Hood, Lon L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Mean winds and momentum fluxes over Jicamarca, Peru, during June and August 1987

Data from the mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere radar at Jicamarca, Peru, together with other available data, are used to diagnose the mean structure of winds and gravity-wave momentum fluxes from the surface to 90 km during two-ten-day campaigns in June and August of 1987. In the stratosphere a layer of maximum eastward flow associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was seen to strengthen and descend rapidly from June to August, overlying persistent westward flow. A layer of enhanced signal return, suggestive of a turbulent layer, was observed just above the descending QBO eastward maximum. Notable zonal asymmetries were present during this transition and the local meridional circulation departed from zonal-mean QBO theory. A substantial northeastward momentum flux was found below 25 km, which may be related to topographic gravity waves excited by southeastward flow across the Andes. In the lower mesosphere a relatively weak 'second' mesopause semiannual oscillation is confirmed. In both the lower stratosphere and mesosphere, body forces were comparable in magnitude to inferred Coriolis torques.

Hitchman, Matthew H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Total ozone seasonal and interannual variations in the principal air masses of the Northern Hemisphere in 1975-1990

The diurnally mean total ozone X from the Northern Hemisphere ground based 90 stations for 1975-1990 are averaged over the Arctic (bar X (sub A)) Intermediate (bar X (sub I)) and Tropical (bar X (sub T)) air mass areas, divided by the jet stream axes on the isobaric surfaces 300 and 200 mb. The mean square variations of the so averaged X are considerably smaller than of the X, averaged over the corresponding zonal belts. This property allows one to improve considerably the statistical significance of X trends and changes over various time periods, taking into account the time correlation of data for adjacent time intervals. Bar X (sub A), bar X (sub I), and bar X (sub T) trends are estimated over the periods of solar activity rise and fall in its 21st and rise in its 22nd 11 year cycles and over the periods of west and east phases of the known over the periods of west and east phases of the known quasibiennial oscillation (QBO). Solar activity variations affect mostly bar X (sub T), bar X (sub I) trends in summer months, while QBO phases influence the X changes mostly during the cold half year. X are lower in the west QBO phase and their trend is negative during almost all periods considered. The anthropogenic effects on the X is also estimated.

Karol, Igor L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Coherent variations of monthly mean total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature

Space-time patterns of correlation between total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature are documented, based on 14 years (1979-1992) of global monthly mean observations. Data are obtained from the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) and microwave sounding unit (MSU) channel 4, the latter being a weighted mean temperature of the 150- to 50-mbar layer. These data are analyzed (separately) for linear trend, solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations via linear regression: significant signals are identified for each term, and the corresponding structures in ozone and temperature are found to be highly coherent. The temperature trends derived here show significant cooling of the lower stratosphere over Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in winter-spring and over Antarctica in Southern Hemisphere (SH) spring; the overall space-time patterns are similar to those determined for ozone trends. Interestingly, temperatures do not decrease over SH midlatitudes during midwinter, in spite of large ozone losses. These data furthermore show globally coherent ozone and temperature perturbations associated with both QBO and ENSO variations; a new result here show large total ozone anomalies in middle-to-high latitudes of both hemispheres associated with ENSO events. Residuals from the ozone and temperature time series (defined as the deseasonalized total minus the regression fits) show strong positive correlation in middle-to-high latitudes but weak correlations in the trop ics. Time periods following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo are clearly identified from the coupled signatures of decreased ozone and increased temperature, opposite to the positive ozone-temperature correlations observed at other times. The ratios of ozone to temperature anomalies derived here show quantitative signatures indicating that either radiative (trend, solar, and QBO) or dynamical (ENSO and residuals) processes are responsible for the strong ozone-temperature correlations.

Randel, William J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Global ozone observations from the UARS MLS: An overview of zonal-mean results

Global ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) are presented, in both vertically resolved and column abundance formats. The authors review the zonal-mean ozone variations measured over the two and a half years since launch in September 1991. Well-known features such as the annual and semiannual variations are ubiquitous. In the equatorial regions, longer-term changes are believed to be related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), with a strong semiannual signal above 20 hPa. Ozone values near 50 hPa exhibit an equatorial low from October 1991 to June 1992, after which the low ozone pattern splits into two subtropical lows (possibly in connection with residual circulation changes tied to the QBO) and returns to an equatorial low in September 1993. The ozone hole development at high southern latitudes is apparent in MLS column data integrated down to 100 hPa, the MLS data reinforce current knowledge of this lower-stratospheric phenomenon by providing a height-dependent view of the variations. The region from 30 deg S to 30 deg N (an area equal to half the global area) shows very little change in the ozone column from year to year and within each year. The most striking ozone changes have occurred at northern midlatitudes, with the October 1992 to July 1993 column values significantly lower than during the prior year. The zonal-mean changes manifest themselves as a slower rate of increase during the 1992/93 winter, and there is some evidence for a lower fall minimum. A recovery occurs during late summer of 1993; early 1994 values are significantly larger than during the two previous winters. The timing and latitudinal extent of the northern midlatitude decreases appear to rule out observed ClO enhancements in the Arctic vortex, with related chemical processing and ozone dilution effects, as a unique cause. Local depletion from ClO-related chemical mechanisms alone is also not sufficient, based on MLS ClO data. The puzzling asymmetric nature of the changes probably requires a dynamical component as an explanation. A combination of effects (including chemical destruction via heterogeneous processes and QBO phasing) apparently needs to be invoked. This dataset will place constraints on future modeling studies, which are required to better understand the source of the observed changes.

Froidevaux, Lucien↗

NASA NTRS1995

Equatorial Kelvin wave variability during 1992 and 1993

Temperature and ozone data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) are used to analyze the variability of Kelvin wave activity during the first two years of the UARS mission. The analysis is carried out using the asynoptic mapping technique. Time frequency plots for zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2, at two heights representing the middle stratosphere and the stratopause, respectively, are used to analyze the temporal variability of the waves, and its possible relationship to the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and semiannual oscillation (SAO). Kelvin wave activity reaches a maximum during the solstice seasons and almost disappears during the equinoxes, in agreement with previous studies. Eastward propagating variance is estimated for wave periods from 4 to 20 days, at all UARS pressure surfaces currently available for MLS. The semiannual modulation of variance is observed to extend down to the lower limits of the height ranges of the temperature and ozone retrievals. Furthermore, a superposed QBO modulation is detected up to the stratopause. Comparison between the variance in eastward propagating waves and the mean zonal wind shows a possible participation of kelvin waves in the forcing of the QBO. At the stratopause the role of Kelvin waves in forcing the SAO appears to be limited, in agreement with previous results. Between the 21-hPa and 4.6-hPa surfaces there appears to be a transition zone where there is no clear relationship between Kelvin wave activity and mean zonal flow acceleration.

Canziani, Pablo O.↗