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At least 127 records · Page 7

Regional Variability in Convection and Rain Retrievals from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI)

Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite shows that the average height of 30 dBz in convective rain areas of the tropics varies significantly from one region to the other. When the convection is weak this height is shallow and when convection is strong this height extends deeper into the troposphere. The brightness temperature (Tb) measured by the microwave radiometer by itself does not reflect this nature of convection satisfactorily. Radiative transfer simulations of Tbs reveal that this could be due to the variations in the vertical distribution of optically active water and ice hydrometeors and their density, shape, and size. These variations are not coupled uniquely to the strength of the convective updrafts, and as a result the Tbs do not reflect properly the convective strength indicated by PR. Because of this deficiency in the Tbs the rain rate deduced from them differs from that of PR. For this reason, to improve the estimation of rain rate we have developed an empirical method. In this method a parameter based on the areal extent of the Tbs that exceed a certain magnitude is included along with the Tbs. Rain rate deduced with this approach is better correlated with that of PR when compared to the current Version 5 operational algorithm. The percentage of rain volume as a function of rain rate, for a given region of 5deg lat. X 5deg long. over a period of three months, deduced from this method, is also in better agreement with that of the PR.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Chiu, J. Christine↗

Distributed Disdrometer and Rain Gauge Measurement Infrastructure Developed for GPM Ground Validation

Global Precipitation Mission (GPM)retrieval algorithm validation requires datasets characterizing the 4-D structure, variability, and correlation properties of hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSD) and accumulations over satellite fields of view (FOV;<10 km). Collection of this data provides a means to assess retrieval errors related to beam filling and algorithm PSD assumptions. Hence, GPM Ground Validation is developing a deployable network of precipitation gauges and disdrometers to provide fine-scale measurements of PSD and precipitation accumulation variability. These observations will be combined with dual-frequency, polarimetric, and profiling radar data in a bootstrapping fashion to extend validated PSD measurements to a large coverage domain. Accordingly, a total of 24 Parsivel disdrometers(PD), 5 3rd-generation 2D Video Disdrometers (2DVD), 70 tipping bucket rain gauges (TBRG),9 weighing gauges, 7 Hot-Plate precipitation sensors (HP), and 3 Micro Rain Radars (MRR) have been procured. In liquid precipitation the suite of TBRG, PD and 2DVD instruments will quantify a broad spectrum of rain rate and PSD variability at sub-kilometer scales. In the envisioned network configuration 5 2DVDs will act as reference points for 16 collocated PD and TBRG measurements. We find that PD measurements provide similar measures of the rain PSD as observed with collocated 2DVDs (e.g., D0, Nw) for rain rates less than 15 mm/hr. For heavier rain rates we will rely on 2DVDs for PSD information. For snowfall we will combine point-redundant observations of SWER distributed over three or more locations within a FOV. Each location will contain at least one fenced weighing gauge, one HP, two PDs, and a 2DVD. MRRs will also be located at each site to extend the measurement to the column. By collecting SWER measurements using different instrument types that employ different measurement techniques our objective is to separate measurement uncertainty from natural variability in SWER and PSD. As demonstrated using C3VP polarimetric radar, gauge, and 2DVD/PD datasets these measurements can be combined to bootstrap an area wide SWER estimate via constrained modification of density-diameter and radar reflectivity-snowfall relationships. These data will be combined with snowpack, airborne microphysics, radar, radiometer, and tropospheric sounding data to refine GPM snowfall retrievals. The gauge and disdrometer instruments are being developed to operate autonomously when necessary using solar power and wireless communications. These systems will be deployed in numerous field campaigns through 2016. Planned deployment of these systems include field campaigns in Finland (2010), Oklahoma (2011), Canada (2012) and North Carolina (2013). GPM will also deploy 20 pairs of TBRGs within a 25 km2 region along the Virginia coast under NASA NPOL radar coverage in order to quantify errors in point-area rainfall measurements.

Petersen, Walter A.↗

Statistical Approaches for the Definition of Landslide Rainfall Thresholds and their Uncertainty Using Rain Gauge and Satellite Data

Models for forecasting rainfall-induced landslides are mostly based on the identification of empirical rainfall thresholds obtained exploiting rain gauge data. Despite their increased availability, satellite rainfall estimates are scarcely used for this purpose. Satellite data should be useful in ungauged and remote areas, or should provide a significant spatial and temporal reference in gauged areas. In this paper, the analysis of the reliability of rainfall thresholds based on rainfall remote sensed and rain gauge data for the prediction of landslide occurrence is carried out. To date, the estimation of the uncertainty associated with the empirical rainfall thresholds is mostly based on a bootstrap resampling of the rainfall duration and the cumulated event rainfall pairs (D,E) characterizing rainfall events responsible for past failures. This estimation does not consider the measurement uncertainty associated with D and E. In the paper, we propose (i) a new automated procedure to reconstruct ED conditions responsible for the landslide triggering and their uncertainties, and (ii) three new methods to identify rainfall threshold for the possible landslide occurrence, exploiting rain gauge and satellite data. In particular, the proposed methods are based on Least Square (LS), Quantile Regression (QR) and Nonlinear Least Square (NLS) statistical approaches. We applied the new procedure and methods to define empirical rainfall thresholds and their associated uncertainties in the Umbria region (central Italy) using both rain-gauge measurements and satellite estimates. We finally validated the thresholds and tested the effectiveness of the different threshold definition methods with independent landslide information. The NLS method among the others performed better in calculating thresholds in the full range of rainfall durations. We found that the thresholds obtained from satellite data are lower than those obtained from rain gauge measurements. This is in agreement with the literature, where satellite rainfall data underestimate the 'ground' rainfall registered by rain gauges.

landslide prediction↗

Evolution of Drop Size Distributions during Hurricane Harvey and Their Effects on Rain Intensity

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on August 25, 2017, before exiting the state as a tropical storm on August 29, 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding over southeast Texas with some locations measuring more than 60 inches of rain. The Houston NEXRAD radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event and is utilized in this study to better understand the evolution of the drop size distribution (DSD) in the lower (liquid) portions of the storm and how changes in the DSD were tied to observed and measured changes in rain intensities. From the KHGX dual-polarimetric radar data several DSD parameters were retrieved, including three different rain rate retrievals, as well as the mass-weighted mean-drop diameter Dm, and the normalized intercept parameter NW of the gamma distribution. Two of the rain retrievals are popular hybrid approaches, where reflectivity, differential and specific differential phase are used. The other is an attenuation-based retrieval. In a previous study, it was found that both hybrid retrievals significantly underestimated the rainfall during the heaviest rain periods, while the attenuation-based retrieval, with proper adjustment, agreed quite well with a large network of gauges from the Harris County Flood Warning System. Using Dm and NW as proxies for drop size and concentration, respectively, we will show that the heaviest rain intensities were associated in areas of the storm where there was a large concentration of large drops present. It is envisaged that results of this study can be used to develop a near-real-time tuning of the attenuation-based retrieval, thus providing timely, and possibly life-saving warnings during inundating rainfall.

David B. Wolff↗

Limitations of Separate Cloud and Rain Categories in Parameterizing Collision-Coalescence for Bulk Microphysics Schemes

Warm rain collision-coalescence has been persistently difficult to parameterize in bulk microphysics schemes. We use a flexible bulk microphysics scheme with bin scheme process parameterizations, called AMP, to investigate reasons for the difficulty. AMP is configured in a variety of ways to mimic bulk schemes and is compared to simulations with the bin scheme upon which AMP is built. We find that an important limitation in traditional bulk schemes is the use of separate cloud and rain categories. When the drop size distribution is instead represented by a continuous distribution, the simulation of cloud-to-rain conversion is substantially improved. We also find large sensitivity to the threshold size to distinguish cloud and rain in traditional schemes; substantial improvement is found by decreasing the threshold from 40 to 25 μm. Neither the use of an assumed functional form for the size distribution nor the choice of predicted distribution moments has a large impact on the ability of AMP to simulate rain production. When predicting four total moments of the liquid drop size distribution, either with a traditional two-category, two-moment scheme with a reduced size threshold, or a four-moment single-category scheme, errors in the evolution of mass and the cloud size distribution are similar, but the single-category scheme has a substantially better representation of the rain size distribution. Optimal moment combinations for the single-category approach are investigated and appear to be linked more to the information content they provide for constraining the size distributions than to their correlation with collision-coalescence rates.

autoconversion↗

Validation of Rain Rate Retrievals for the Airborne Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

On board of the NASA's Global Hawk (AV1) aircraft there are two microwave, namely: the passive microwave Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), and the active microwave High-altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP). This paper presents results from an unplanned rain rate measurement validation opportunity that occurred in 2013, when the Global Hawk aircraft flew over an intense tropical squall-line that was simultaneously observed, by the Tampa NEXRAD meteorological radar. During this experiment, Global Hawk flying at an altitude of 18 km made 3 passes over the rapidly propagating thunderstorm, while the TAMPA NEXRAD perform volume scans on a 5-minute interval. NEXRAD 2D images of rain rate (mm/hr) were obtained at two altitudes (3 km & 6 km), which serve as surface truth for the HIRAD rain rate retrievals. In this paper, results are presented of the three-way inter-comparison of HIRAD Tb, HIWRAP dbZ and NEXRAD rain rate imagery.

HIRAD↗

The effect of heavy rain on windshear attributed accidents

In recent years several commercial aircraft accidents have occurred as an aircraft attempted landing in a thunderstorm cell. The horizontal and vertical windshear associated with the cell have been identified as the factors responsible for the accident. In addition to the wind shear encounter, several of these aircraft simultaneously penetrated a heavy rain cell. Heavy rain affects the aircraft by imparting a momentum penalty, and a drag penalty, due to the rain roughening of the airfoil. These penalties have been evaluated by a computer model that, when incorporated with a landing simulation program, was used to assess the relative influence of heavy rain versus wind shear. Using this model, an assessment was made of the influence of heavy rain on several wind shear attributed accidents.

Luers, J. K.↗

Rain measurements from space using a modified Seasat-type radar altimeter

The incorporation in the 13.5 GHz Seasat-type radar altimeter of a mode to measure rain rate is investigated. Specifically, an algorithm is developed relating the echo power at the various range bins, to the rain rate taking into consideration Mie scattering and path attenuation. The dependence of the algorithm on rain drop size distribution and nonuniform rain structure are examined and associated uncertainties defined. A technique for obtaining drop size distribution through the measurements of power at the top of the raincell and power difference through the cell also is investigated together with an associated error analysis. A description of the minor hardware modifications to the basic Seasat design is given for implementing the rain measurements.

Goldhirsh, J.↗

Rain and deicing experiments in a wind tunnel

Comments on films of tests simulating rain and ice conditions in a wind tunnel are presented, with the aim of studying efficient methods of overcoming the adverse effects of rain and ice on aircraft. In the experiments, lifesize models and models of the Mirave 4 aircraft were used. The equipment used to simulate rain and ice is described. Different configurations of landing and takeoff under conditions of moderate or heavy rain at variable angles of incidence and of skipping and at velocities varying from 30 to 130 m/sec are reproduced in the wind tunnel. The risks of erosion of supersonic aircraft by the rain during the loitering and approach phases are discussed.

Fasso, G.↗

Rain-induced spring wheat harvest losses

When rain or a combination of rain and high humidity delay wheat harvest, losses can occur in grain yield and/or grain quality. Yield losses can result from shattering, from reduction in test weight, and in the case of windrowed grain, from rooting of sprouting grain at the soil: windrow contact. Losses in grain quality can result from reduction in test weight and from sprouting. Sprouting causes a degradation of grain proteins and starches, hence flour quality is reduced, and the grain price deteriorates to the value of feed grain. Although losses in grain yield and quality are rain-induced, these losses do not necessarily occur because a standing or windrowed crop is wetted by rain. Spike water concentration in hard red spring wheat must be increased to about 45-49% before sprouting is initiated in grain that has overcome dormancy. The time required to overcome this dormancy after the cultivar has dried to 12 to 14% water concentration differs with hard red spring cultivars. The effect of rain on threshing-ready standing and windrowed hard red spring wheat grain yeild and quality was evaluated. A goal was to develop the capability to forecast the extent of expected loss of grain yield and quality from specific climatic events that delay threshing.

Bauer, A.↗

A satellite passive 37-GHz scattering-based method for measuring oceanic rain rates

A combination of theory and measurement is used to develop a scattering-based method for quantitatively measuring rainfall over the ocean from Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) 37-GHz observations. This technique takes the observed scattering effects of precipitation on 37-GHz brightness temperatures and applies it to the oceanic environment. It requires an estimate of the effective radiating temperature of the cloudy portion of the atmosphere, and a brightness temperature measurement of the cloud-free ocean surface. These two measurements bound all possible combinations of clear and cloudy conditions within a footprint in terms of bipolarized brightness temperatures. Any satellite-observed brightness temperature T(B) lower than these values is assumed to reflect scattering, which at 37 GHz is only due to precipitation-size hydrometeors. Because the technique involves linear transformation between dual polarized brightness temperature and rain rate, there are no nonlinear 'footprint filling' effects and a unique footprint-averaged rain rate results. It is shown that these SMMR-derived rain rates for five cases of convection over the Gulf of Mexico are closely related to simultaneously derived radar rain rates, having a correlation of 0.90. This technique is then applied to a massive squall line over the Gulf of Mexico, and the resulting rain rate distribution reflects features found in cloud top heights and texture inferred from GOES infrared and visible imagery.

Spencer, R. W.↗

Potential influences of heavy rain on general aviation airplane performance

Recent NASA wind tunnel tests of airfoils in a simulated rain environment under extremely heavy rain conditions have shown reductions in maximum lift and increases in drag. Conventional airfoils were tested with and without high lift devices and tests of laminar-flow airfoils without high-lift devices were conducted. Both types of airfoils indicated performance decrements when exposed to a simulated heavy rain environment. For the laminar flow airfoil, the rain influence was observed to occur throughout the angle of attack range, whereas for the conventional airfoil in a high lift configuration, the rain influence occurred mostly at the higher angles of attack. The performance decrement for the laminar-flow airfoil appeared to be a result of laminar-to-turbulent boundary-layer transition whereas the performance penalty for the conventional airfoil appeared to be the result of premature separation. The results of these tests are presented and the implication of the results to general aviation airplanes are discussed.

Dunham, R. E., Jr.↗

Wind tunnel test results of heavy rain effects on airfoil performance

The effects of simulated heavy rain on the aerodynamic characteristics of a NACA 64-210 airfoil section equipped with high-lift devices were investigated in the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel. The experiment was part of an on-going NASA program to determine the effect of heavy rain on airplane performance, and was directed at providing insight into scaling laws for subscale model testing of rain effects. The model used in the investigation had a chord of 2.5 feet, a span of 8.0 feet, and was mounted on the tunnel centerline between two large endplates. A water spray distribution system was located 10 chord lengths upstream of the model. The sensitivity of test results to partial-span coverage of the model in the simulated rain environment as compared to full-span coverage was also investigated. The lift and drag data obtained for the high-lift configuration show excellent repeatability of results compared to the previous data. Results obtained for various spray concentrations and tunnel speeds showed significant losses in maximum lift capability, a decrease in the angle of attack for maximum lift, and an increase in drag as the stimulated rain rate was increased. The test results also indicated that the data were not strongly affected by surface tension effects for the high-lift configuration.

Bezos, G. M.↗

Fatigue loading history reconstruction based on the rain-flow technique

Methods are considered for reducing a non-random fatigue loading history to a concise description and then for reconstructing a time history similar to the original. In particular, three methods of reconstruction based on a rain-flow cycle counting matrix are presented. A rain-flow matrix consists of the numbers of cycles at various peak and valley combinations. Two methods are based on a two dimensional rain-flow matrix, and the third on a three dimensional rain-flow matrix. Histories reconstructed by any of these methods produce a rain-flow matrix identical to that of the original history, and as a result the resulting time history is expected to produce a fatigue life similar to that for the original. The procedures described allow lengthy loading histories to be stored in compact form.

Khosrovaneh, A. K.↗

Estimating the exceedance probability of rain rate by logistic regression

Recent studies have shown that the fraction of an area with rain intensity above a fixed threshold is highly correlated with the area-averaged rain rate. To estimate the fractional rainy area, a logistic regression model, which estimates the conditional probability that rain rate over an area exceeds a fixed threshold given the values of related covariates, is developed. The problem of dependency in the data in the estimation procedure is bypassed by the method of partial likelihood. Analyses of simulated scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and observed electrically scanning microwave radiometer data during the Global Atlantic Tropical Experiment period show that the use of logistic regression in pixel classification is superior to multiple regression in predicting whether rain rate at each pixel exceeds a given threshold, even in the presence of noisy data. The potential of the logistic regression technique in satellite rain rate estimation is discussed.

Chiu, Long S.↗