SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Random Uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, High-Cycle and Low-Cycle Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

The development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation is described. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing predictions of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects with experiments are presented. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported that material degradation can be represented by randomized multifactor interaction models.

Bast, Callie C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Comparison of Precision of Biomass Estimates in Regional Field Sample Surveys and Airborne LiDAR-Assisted Surveys in Hedmark County, Norway

Airborne scanning LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) has emerged as a promising tool to provide auxiliary data for sample surveys aiming at estimation of above-ground tree biomass (AGB), with potential applications in REDD forest monitoring. For larger geographical regions such as counties, states or nations, it is not feasible to collect airborne LiDAR data continuously ("wall-to-wall") over the entire area of interest. Two-stage cluster survey designs have therefore been demonstrated by which LiDAR data are collected along selected individual flight-lines treated as clusters and with ground plots sampled along these LiDAR swaths. Recently, analytical AGB estimators and associated variance estimators that quantify the sampling variability have been proposed. Empirical studies employing these estimators have shown a seemingly equal or even larger uncertainty of the AGB estimates obtained with extensive use of LiDAR data to support the estimation as compared to pure field-based estimates employing estimators appropriate under simple random sampling (SRS). However, comparison of uncertainty estimates under SRS and sophisticated two-stage designs is complicated by large differences in the designs and assumptions. In this study, probability-based principles to estimation and inference were followed. We assumed designs of a field sample and a LiDAR-assisted survey of Hedmark County (HC) (27,390 km2), Norway, considered to be more comparable than those assumed in previous studies. The field sample consisted of 659 systematically distributed National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots and the airborne scanning LiDAR data were collected along 53 parallel flight-lines flown over the NFI plots. We compared AGB estimates based on the field survey only assuming SRS against corresponding estimates assuming two-phase (double) sampling with LiDAR and employing model-assisted estimators. We also compared AGB estimates based on the field survey only assuming two-stage sampling (the NFI plots being grouped in clusters) against corresponding estimates assuming two-stage sampling with the LiDAR and employing model-assisted estimators. For each of the two comparisons, the standard errors of the AGB estimates were consistently lower for the LiDAR-assisted designs. The overall reduction of the standard errors in the LiDAR-assisted estimation was around 40-60% compared to the pure field survey. We conclude that the previously proposed two-stage model-assisted estimators are inappropriate for surveys with unequal lengths of the LiDAR flight-lines and new estimators are needed. Some options for design of LiDAR-assisted sample surveys under REDD are also discussed, which capitalize on the flexibility offered when the field survey is designed as an integrated part of the overall survey design as opposed to previous LiDAR-assisted sample surveys in the boreal and temperate zones which have been restricted by the current design of an existing NFI.

Comparison↗

NASA NTRS1973

A guidance and navigation system for continuous low thrust vehicles

A midcourse guidance and navigation system for continuous low thrust vehicles is described. A set of orbit elements, known as the equinoctial elements, are selected as the state variables. The uncertainties are modelled statistically by random vector and stochastic processes. The motion of the vehicle and the measurements are described by nonlinear stochastic differential and difference equations respectively. A minimum time nominal trajectory is defined and the equation of motion and the measurement equation are linearized about this nominal trajectory. An exponential cost criterion is constructed and a linear feedback guidance law is derived to control the thrusting direction of the engine. Using this guidance law, the vehicle will fly in a trajectory neighboring the nominal trajectory. The extended Kalman filter is used for state estimation. Finally a short mission using this system is simulated. The results indicate that this system is very efficient for short missions.

Tse, C. J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1973

A guidance and navigation system for continuous low-thrust vehicles

A midcourse guidance and navigation system for continuous low thrust vehicles was developed. The equinoctial elements are the state variables. Uncertainties are modelled statistically by random vector and stochastic processes. The motion of the vehicle and the measurements are described by nonlinear stochastic differential and difference equations respectively. A minimum time trajectory is defined; equations of motion and measurements are linearized about this trajectory. An exponential cost criterion is constructed and a linear feedback quidance law is derived. An extended Kalman filter is used for state estimation. A short mission using this system is simulated. It is indicated that this system is efficient for short missions, but longer missions require accurate trajectory and ground based measurements.

Jack-Chingtse, C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Wiener filtering of the COBE Differential Microwave Radiometer data

We derive an optimal linear filter to suppress the noise from the cosmic background explorer satellite (COBE) Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR) sky maps for a given power spectrum. We then apply the filter to the first-year DMR data, after removing pixels within 20 deg of the Galactic plane from the data. We are able to identify particular hot and cold spots in the filtered maps at a level 2 to 3 times the noise level. We use the formalism of constrained realizations of Gaussian random fields to assess the uncertainty in the filtered sky maps. In addition to improving the signal-to-noise ratio of the map as a whole, these techniques allow us to recover some information about the cosmic microwave background anisotropy in the missing Galactic plane region. From these maps we are able to determine which hot and cold spots in the data are statistically significant, and which may have been produced by noise. In addition, the filtered maps can be used for comparison with other experiments on similar angular scales.

Bunn, Emory F.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Probabilistic Modeling of Ceramic Matrix Composite Strength

Uncertainties associated with the primitive random variables such as manufacturing process (processing temperature, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio), constituent properties (fiber, matrix and interface), and geometric parameters (ply thickness, interphase thickness) have been simulated to quantify the scatter in the first matrix cracking strength (FMCS) and the ultimate tensile strength of SCS-6/RBSN (SiC fiber (SCS-6) reinforced reaction-bonded silicon nitride composite) ceramic matrix composite laminate at room temperature. Cumulative probability distribution function for the FMCS and ultimate tensile strength at room temperature (RT) of (0)(sub 8), (0(sub 2)/90(sub 2), and (+/-45(sub 2))(sub S) laminates have been simulated and the sensitivity of primitive variables to the respective strengths have been quantified. Computationally predicted scatter of the strengths for a uniaxial laminate have been compared with those from limited experimental data. Also the experimental procedure used in the tests has been described briefly. Results show a very good agreement between the computational simulation and the experimental data. Dominating failure modes in (0)(sub 8), (0/90)(sub s) and (+/-45)(sub S) laminates have been identified. Results indicate that the first matrix cracking strength for the (0)(sub S), and (0/90)(sub S) laminates is sensitive to the thermal properties, modulus and strengths of both the fiber and matrix whereas the ultimate tensile strength is sensitive to the fiber strength and the fiber volume ratio. In the case of a (+/-45)(sub S), laminate, both the FMCS and the ultimate tensile strengths have a small scatter range and are sensitive to the fiber tensile strength as well as the fiber volume ratio.

Shan, Ashwin R.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Kalman-Filter-Based Approach to Combining Independent Earth-Orientation Series

An approach. based upon the use of a Kalman filter. that is currently employed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) for combining independent measurements of the Earth's orientation, is presented. Since changes in the Earth's orientation can be described is a randomly excited stochastic process, the uncertainty in our knowledge of the Earth's orientation grows rapidly in the absence of measurements. The Kalman-filter methodology allows for an objective accounting of this uncertainty growth, thereby facilitating the intercomparison of measurements taken at different epochs (not necessarily uniformly spaced in time) and with different precision. As an example of this approach to combining Earth-orientation series, a description is given of a combination, SPACE95, that has been generated recently at JPL.

Gross, Richard S.↗

NASA NTRS1974

A design method for minimizing sensitivity to plant parameter variations

A method is described for minimizing the sensitivity of multivariable systems to parameter variations. The variable parameters are considered as random variables and their effect is included in a quadratic performance index. The performance index is a weighted sum of the state and control covariances that stem from both the random system disturbances and the parameter uncertainties. The numerical solution of the problem is described and application of the method to several initially sensitive tracking systems is discussed. The sensitivity factor of reduction was typically 2 or 3 over a system based on random system noise only, and yet resulted in state RMS increases of only about a factor of two.

Hadass, Z.↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Numerical Theory for Impedance Education in Three-Dimensional Normal Incidence Tubes

A method for educing the locally-reacting acoustic impedance of a test sample mounted in a 3-D normal incidence impedance tube is presented and validated. The unique feature of the method is that the excitation frequency (or duct geometry) may be such that high-order duct modes may exist. The method educes the impedance, iteratively, by minimizing an objective function consisting of the difference between the measured and numerically computed acoustic pressure at preselected measurement points in the duct. The method is validated on planar and high-order mode sources with data synthesized from exact mode theory. These data are then subjected to random jitter to simulate the effects of measurement uncertainties on the educed impedance spectrum. The primary conclusions of the study are 1) Without random jitter the method is in excellent agreement with that for known impedance samples, and 2) Random jitter that is compatible to that found in a typical experiment has minimal impact on the accuracy of the educed impedance.

Watson, Willie R.↗

NASA NTRS1976

The uncertainty threshold principle - Fundamental limitations of optimal decision making under dynamic uncertainty

The fundamental limitations of the optimal control of dynamic systems with random parameters are analyzed by studying a scalar linear-quadratic optimal control example. It is demonstrated that optimum long-range decision making is possible only if the dynamic uncertainty (quantified by the means and covariances of the random parameters) is below a certain threshold. If this threshold is exceeded, there do not exist optimum decision rules. This phenomenon is called the 'uncertainty threshold principle'. The implications of this phenomenon to the field of modelling, identification, and adaptive control are discussed.

Athans, M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures): Code development and applications

A methodology and attendant computer code have been developed and are described to computationally simulate the uncertain behavior of composite structures. The uncertain behavior includes buckling loads, stress concentration factors, displacements, stress/strain etc., which are the consequences of the inherent uncertainties (scatter) in the primitive (independent random) variables (constituent, ply, laminate and structural) that describe the composite structures. The computer code, IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures), can handle both composite mechanics and composite structures. Application to probabilistic composite mechanics is illustrated by its uses to evaluate the uncertainties in the major Poisson's ratio and in laminate stiffness and strength. IPACS application to probabilistic structural analysis is illustrated by its use to evaluate the uncertainties in the buckling of a composite plate, in the stress concentration factor in a composite panel and in the vertical displacement and ply stress in a composite aircraft wing segment.

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic structural mechanics research for parallel processing computers

Aerospace structures and spacecraft are a complex assemblage of structural components that are subjected to a variety of complex, cyclic, and transient loading conditions. Significant modeling uncertainties are present in these structures, in addition to the inherent randomness of material properties and loads. To properly account for these uncertainties in evaluating and assessing the reliability of these components and structures, probabilistic structural mechanics (PSM) procedures must be used. Much research has focused on basic theory development and the development of approximate analytic solution methods in random vibrations and structural reliability. Practical application of PSM methods was hampered by their computationally intense nature. Solution of PSM problems requires repeated analyses of structures that are often large, and exhibit nonlinear and/or dynamic response behavior. These methods are all inherently parallel and ideally suited to implementation on parallel processing computers. New hardware architectures and innovative control software and solution methodologies are needed to make solution of large scale PSM problems practical.

Sues, Robert H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic assessment of composite structures

A methodology and attendant computer code were developed and are used to computationally simulate the uncertain behavior of composite structures. The uncertain behavior includes buckling loads, stress concentration factors, displacements, stress/strain, etc., which are the consequences of the inherent uncertainties (scatter) in the primitive (independent random) variables (constituent, ply, laminate, and structural) that describe the composite structures. The computer code is IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). IPACS can simulate both composite mechanics and composite structural behavior. Application to probabilistic composite mechanics is illustrated by its use to evaluate the uncertainties in the major Poisson's ratio and in laminate stiffness and strength. IPACS' application to probabilistic structural analysis is illustrated by its used to evaluate the uncertainties in the buckling of a composite plate, the stress concentration factor in a composite panel, and the vertical displacement and ply stress in a composite aircraft wing segment. IPACS' application to probabilistic design is illustrated by its use to assess the thin composite shell (pipe).

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Duct Propagation Models

This paper presents results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted to assess the relative merits of three duct propagation codes. Results from this study are intended to support identification of a "working envelope" within which to use the various approaches underlying these propagation codes. This investigation considers a segmented liner configuration that models the NASA Langley Grazing Incidence Tube, for which a large set of measured data was available. For the uncertainty analysis, the selected input parameters (source sound pressure level, average Mach number, liner impedance, exit impedance, static pressure and static temperature) are randomly varied over a range of values. Uncertainty limits (95% confidence levels) are computed for the predicted values from each code, and are compared with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals in the measured data. Generally, the mean values of the predicted attenuation are observed to track the mean values of the measured attenuation quite well and predicted confidence intervals tend to be larger in the presence of mean flow. A two-level, six factor sensitivity study is also conducted in which the six inputs are varied one at a time to assess their effect on the predicted attenuation. As expected, the results demonstrate the liner resistance and reactance to be the most important input parameters. They also indicate the exit impedance is a significant contributor to uncertainty in the predicted attenuation.

Nark, Douglas M.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Random-breakage mapping method applied to human DNA sequences

The random-breakage mapping method [Game et al. (1990) Nucleic Acids Res., 18, 4453-4461] was applied to DNA sequences in human fibroblasts. The methodology involves NotI restriction endonuclease digestion of DNA from irradiated calls, followed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, Southern blotting and hybridization with DNA probes recognizing the single copy sequences of interest. The Southern blots show a band for the unbroken restriction fragments and a smear below this band due to radiation induced random breaks. This smear pattern contains two discontinuities in intensity at positions that correspond to the distance of the hybridization site to each end of the restriction fragment. By analyzing the positions of those discontinuities we confirmed the previously mapped position of the probe DXS1327 within a NotI fragment on the X chromosome, thus demonstrating the validity of the technique. We were also able to position the probes D21S1 and D21S15 with respect to the ends of their corresponding NotI fragments on chromosome 21. A third chromosome 21 probe, D21S11, has previously been reported to be close to D21S1, although an uncertainty about a second possible location existed. Since both probes D21S1 and D21S11 hybridized to a single NotI fragment and yielded a similar smear pattern, this uncertainty is removed by the random-breakage mapping method.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

Daigle, Matthew J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Reliability Quantification of the Flexure: A Critical Stirling Convertor Component

Uncertainties in the manufacturing, fabrication process, material behavior, loads, and boundary conditions results in the variation of the stresses and strains induced in the flexures and its fatigue life. Past experience and the test data at material coupon levels revealed a significant amount of scatter of the fatigue life. Owing to these facts, the design of the flexure, using conventional approaches based on safety factor or traditional reliability based on similar equipment considerations does not provide a direct measure of reliability. Additionally, it may not be feasible to run actual long term fatigue tests due to cost and time constraints. Therefore it is difficult to ascertain material fatigue strength limit. The objective of the paper is to present a methodology and quantified results of numerical simulation for the reliability of flexures used in the Stirling convertor for their structural performance. The proposed approach is based on application of finite element analysis method in combination with the random fatigue limit model, which includes uncertainties in material fatigue life. Additionally, sensitivity of fatigue life reliability to the design variables is quantified and its use to develop guidelines to improve design, manufacturing, quality control and inspection design process is described.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Estimation of Uncertainties for a Supersonic Retro-Propulsion Model Validation Experiment in a Wind Tunnel

A high-quality model validation experiment was performed in the NASA Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel to assess the predictive accuracy of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for a blunt-body supersonic retro-propulsion configuration at Mach numbers from 2.4 to 4.6. Static and fluctuating surface pressure data were acquired on a 5-inch-diameter test article with a forebody composed of a spherically-blunted, 70-degree half-angle cone and a cylindrical aft body. One non-powered configuration with a smooth outer mold line was tested as well as three different powered, forward-firing nozzle configurations: a centerline nozzle, three nozzles equally spaced around the forebody, and a combination with all four nozzles. A key objective of the experiment was the determination of experimental uncertainties from a range of sources such as random measurement error, flowfield non-uniformity, and model/instrumentation asymmetries. This paper discusses the design of the experiment towards capturing these uncertainties for the baseline non-powered configuration, the methodology utilized in quantifying the various sources of uncertainty, and examples of the uncertainties applied to non-powered and powered experimental results. The analysis showed that flowfield nonuniformity was the dominant contributor to the overall uncertainty a finding in agreement with other experiments that have quantified various sources of uncertainty.

Rhode, Matthew N.↗