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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Scalpel Scanning Probe Microscopy for Enhanced Volumetric Sensing in Tomographic Analysis

Controlling nanoscale tip‐induced material removal is crucial for achieving atomic‐level precision in tomographic sensing with atomic force microscopy (AFM). While advances have enabled volumetric probing of conductive features with nanometer accuracy in solid‐state devices, materials, and photovoltaics, limitations in spatial resolution and volumetric sensitivity persist. This work identifies and addresses in‐plane and vertical tip‐sample junction leakage as sources of parasitic contrast in tomographic AFM, hindering real‐space 3D reconstructions. Novel strategies are proposed to overcome these limitations. First, the contrast mechanisms analyzing nanosized conductive features are explored when confining current collection purely to in‐plane transport, thus allowing reconstruction with a reduction in the overestimation of the lateral dimensions. Furthermore, an adaptive tip‐sample biasing scheme is demonstrated for the mitigation of a class of artefacts induced by the high electric field inside the thin oxide when volumetrically reduced. This significantly enhances vertical sensitivity by approaching the intrinsic limits set by quantum tunneling processes, allowing detailed depth analysis in thin dielectrics. The effectiveness of these methods is showcased in tomographic reconstructions of conductive filaments in valence change memory, highlighting the potential for application in nanoelectronics devices and bulk materials and unlocking new limits for tomographic AFM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating Polymer Properties with Different Additives for Carbon Capture and Other Applications

Anthropogenic climate change is one of this generation’s most pressing concerns, with the potential to completely alter the delicate balance we’ve struck with nature. Already, global temperatures have risen 1.29°C, leading to disrupted weather systems, extinctions, increased risks of wildfires, and sea level rise, to name a few effects. Carbon dioxide emission from the combustion of fossil fuels and other industrial activity is a large driver of this phenomenon, as it absorbs heat before it can be radiated away from Earth, trapping it. Carbon dioxide has reached unprecedented levels in our atmosphere, showing a 50% increase from preindustrial averages to a whopping 430 ppm. Thus, reducing the amount of carbon dioxide via carbon capture technology is an important endeavor that serves to benefit everyone. The Microencapsulated CO 2 Sorbent (MECS) team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has turned to microencapsulation to approach this endeavor. Microcapsules provide an attractive approach to carbon capture, combining large surface areas for more efficient mass transfer, regenerative abilities, reduced solvent loss, and improved handling. Additionally, while existing carbon capture technology relies on industrial plants, capsules could present a modular approach to carbon capture, reducing the need for extensive physical infrastructure. The MECS team’s design consists of a polymer membrane that contains a liquid carbon sequestering sorbent, aqueous sodium carbonate. The carbon capturing reaction occurs in three distinct steps, the first of which is the dissolution of carbon dioxide into the sorbent solution and its conversion into carbonic acid (H 2 CO 3 ), shown in equations 1 and 2 respectively. Because this step hinges upon the ability of carbon dioxide to reach the solution inside the capsule, it is necessary that the microcapsule shell is permeable to carbon dioxide gas. The MECS team produces these microcapsules using the in-air droplet encapsulation apparatus (IDEA) shown in figure 1, which can produce uniform micron-scale droplets at speeds much faster than traditional single-dispersal microfluidic-based techniques. The IDEA Is 100 times faster than these current techniques and can reach up to 1000 times their speed when incorporating a multi-nozzle design. Additionally, because droplets are produced in-air via vibration, IDEA can decrease post-processing times and material waste by 99% and can fabricate microgels that are 10 to 100 times more viscous than can be produced via traditional microfluidics. While this design represents a breakthrough in the throughput, efficiency, and tunability of microcapsule production, it imposes a major constraint on the microcapsule curing process. Because microcapsule shells are crosslinked with UV light while falling 30 cm through the air, this gives them a reaction window of approximately 0.2 seconds. Thus, the system and shell formulations must be optimized such that the shells can be fully crosslinked within this very narrow window, prompting investigations into curing behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chiral kinematic theory and converse vortical effects

Response theories in condensed matter typically describe the response of an electron fluid to external electromagnetic fields, while perturbations on neutral particles are often designed to mimic such fields. Here, we study the response of fermions to a space-time-dependent velocity field, thereby sidestepping the issue of gauge charge. First, we use a semiclassical chiral kinematic theory to obtain the local density of current and extract the orbital magnetization. The theory immediately predicts a "converse vortical effect," defined as an orbital magnetization driven by linear velocity. It receives contributions from magnetic moments on the Fermi surface and the Berry curvature of the occupied bands. Then, transcending semiclassics via a complementary Kubo formalism reveals that the uniform limit of a clean system receives only the Berry curvature contribution while other limits sense the Fermi surface magnetic moments too. We propose CoSi as a candidate material and suggest magnetometry of a sample under a thermal gradient to detect the effect. Overall, our study sheds light on the effects of a space-time-dependent velocity field on electron fluids and paves the way for exploring quantum materials using new probes and perturbations.

Chen, Kai [University of Houston]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Time-dependent scenario modeling for the ST-E1 fusion power plant

ST-E1 is a low aspect ratio fusion power plant being designed by Tokamak Energy targeting 1.5 GW of fusion power. Characterization of the ST-E1 flat-top scenario is described elsewhere McNamara et al (2026 Nucl. Fusion 66 086008); here we focus on addressing the question of how to ramp-up the ST-E1 plasma from an initial state following breakdown and flux-surface formation to the target flat-top state. Being low-aspect ratio, the available solenoid flux of ST-E1 is limited. Therefore, particular consideration is placed on developing ramp-up scenarios that predominantly use inductive flux provided by external vertical field coils. Through time-dependent modeling with METIS, we show that this is possible when the ramp-up is performed at relatively high plasma density: although auxiliary current drive efficiency is reduced, this is significantly outweighed by (1) higher electron-ion collisional equilibration, (2) higher fusion power once ions become sufficiently hot, (3) higher poloidal beta for increased vertical-field flux, and (4) potentially favorable exhaust compatibilities. Ultimately, we show the target ST-E1 flat-top performance can be reached after a ramp-up period lasting 150 s using less than 40 Vs of solenoid flux (with vertical field providing ∼ 90 Vs of flux). The sensitivity to model assumptions are presented, with the general observation that deleterious effects can be mitigated through minor alterations of the auxiliary power temporal waveform and/or total auxiliary power level. The impact of a solenoid and the auxiliary power mix (electron cyclotron heating only versus electron and ion cyclotron heating) on the ST-E1 ramp-up success are also discussed in appendices. On this latter topic, we show that the effect of direct-ion heating during ramp-up is obscured by the uncertainty in the pedestal dynamics, identifying a clear line of future work required to make a definite decision on the ST-E1 auxiliary power mix.

current ramp-up↗
DOE OSTI2026

End-To-End Decentralized Transmission Line Protection in IBR-Dominated Weak Grids Using Interpretable Data-Driven Methods

Traditional transmission line protection relies on predictable synchronous-based fault signatures, which frequently fail under the non-standard, current-limited fault characteristics of Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs). This study investigates how to achieve secure, communication-free fault isolation in IBR-dominated weak grids without relying on opaque, computationally heavy "black-box" machine learning algorithms. To address this, we propose a novel, standalone, and inherently interpretable data-driven protection framework. Unlike centralized methods requiring multi-terminal communication, this decentralized approach relies solely on local measurements using a hierarchical linear-kernel Support Vector Machine (SVM). The methodology decomposes the protection task into four sequential stages that mimic traditional protection elements: fault detection and fault direction identification, fault type classification, zone classification, and location estimation. This multi-stage architecture allows for specialized feature engineering at each stage, combining high computational efficiency with logic traceability. The framework's end-to-end performance was validated via C-code and PSCAD/EMTDC co-simulation, utilizing a real-world utility network and an OEM black-box IBR model. The proposed relay achieves 97.2% overall accuracy and provides a reliable trip decision within a 2.5-cycle window. The results confirm 100% accuracy in fundamental fault detection, reliable zone selectivity across low to moderate fault resistances, and robust security against non-fault transients, proving its immediate viability for integration into commercial numerical relays.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Case study of UAS ignition of prescribed fire in a mixedwood on the William B. Bankhead National Forest, Alabama

Abstract Background For at least four decades, practitioners have recognized advantages of aerial versus ground ignition for maximizing the effectiveness of prescribed fires. For example, larger areas can be ignited in less time, or ignition energy may be variously targeted over an area in accordance with the uneven distribution of fuels. The maturation of wireless communication, geopositioning systems, and unmanned aerial systems (UAS) has enhanced those advantages, and UAS approaches also provide further advantages relative to helicopter ignitions, such as reduced risk to human safety, lower operating costs, and higher operational flexibility. In a long running study at the Bankhead National Forest in northcentral Alabama, prescribed fire has been used for nearly 20 years. Most of the burns have been hand-ignited via drip torches, while some have been aerially ignited via helicopter. In March 2022, for the first time, a UAS was used to ignite prescribed fires across a landscape that included a long-term research stand. This field note relates comparisons of both fire behavior and fuel consumption metrics for the UAS-ignited burn versus previous burns on the same stand, and versus burns of other research stands in the same year. Results The UAS-ignited prescribed fire experienced burn effects similar to those from ground-ignited prescribed fires on the same stand in previous years, as well as those from ground-ignited prescribed fires on other stands in the same year. Conclusion This post hoc analysis suggests that UAS ignition approaches may be sufficient for achieving prescribed burn goals, thereby enabling practitioners to realize the advantages offered by that ignition mode.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electron Microscopy Studies of Soft Nanomaterials

This review highlights recent efforts on applying electron microscopy (EM) to soft (including biological) nanomaterials. We will show how developments of both the hardware and software of EM have enabled new insights into the formation, assembly, and functioning (e.g., energy conversion and storage, phonon/photon modulation) of these materials by providing shape, size, phase, structural, and chemical information at the nanometer or higher spatial resolution. Specifically, we first discuss standard real-space two-dimensional imaging and analytical techniques which are offered conveniently by microscopes without special holders or advanced beam technology. The discussion is then extended to recent advancements, including visualizing three-dimensional morphology of soft nanomaterials using electron tomography and its variations, identifying local structure and strain by electron diffraction, and recording motions and transformation by in situ EM. On these advancements, we cover state-of-the-art technologies designed for overcoming the technical barriers for EM to characterize soft materials as well as representative application examples. Here, the even more recent integration of machine learning and its impacts on EM are also discussed in detail. With our perspectives of future opportunities offered at the end, we expect this review to inspire and stimulate more efforts in developing and utilizing EM-based characterization methods for soft nanomaterials at the atomic to nanometer length scales in academic research and industrial applications.

Imaging↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hamiltonian switching control of noisy bipartite qubit systems

Abstract We develop a Hamiltonian switching ansatz for bipartite control that is inspired by the quantum approximate optimization algorithm, to mitigate environmental noise on qubits. We demonstrate the control for a central spin coupled to bath spins via isotropic Heisenberg interactions, and then make physical applications to the protection of quantum gates performed on superconducting transmon qubits coupling to environmental two-level-systems (TLSs) through dipole-dipole interactions, as well as on such qubits coupled to both TLSs and a Lindblad bath. The control field is classical and acts only on the system qubits. We use reinforcement learning with policy gradient to optimize the Hamiltonian switching control protocols, using a fidelity objective for specific target quantum gates. We use this approach to demonstrate effective suppression of both coherent and dissipative noise, with numerical studies achieving target gate implementations with fidelities over 0.9999 (four nines) in the majority of our test cases and showing improvement beyond this to values of 0.999 999 999 (nine nines) upon a subsequent optimization by GRadient Ascent Pulse Engineering (GRAPE). We analyze how the control depth, total evolution time, number of environmental TLS, and choice of optimization method affect the fidelity achieved by the optimal protocols and reveal some critical behaviors of bipartite control of quantum gates.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗
DOE OSTI2024

Active Learning for Rapid Targeted Synthesis of Compositionally Complex Alloys

The next generation of advanced materials is tending toward increasingly complex compositions. Synthesizing precise composition is time-consuming and becomes exponentially demanding with increasing compositional complexity. An experienced human operator does significantly better than a novice but still struggles to consistently achieve precision when synthesis parameters are coupled. The time to optimize synthesis becomes a barrier to exploring scientifically and technologically exciting compositionally complex materials. This investigation demonstrates an active learning (AL) approach for optimizing physical vapor deposition synthesis of thin-film alloys with up to five principal elements. We compared AL-based on Gaussian process (GP) and random forest (RF) models. The best performing models were able to discover synthesis parameters for a target quinary alloy in 14 iterations. We also demonstrate the capability of these models to be used in transfer learning tasks. RF and GP models trained on lower dimensional systems (i.e., ternary, quarternary) show an immediate improvement in prediction accuracy compared to models trained only on quinary samples. Furthermore, samples that only share a few elements in common with the target composition can be used for model pre-training. We believe that such AL approaches can be widely adapted to significantly accelerate the exploration of compositionally complex materials.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal Disorder‐Induced Strain and Carrier Localization Activate Reverse Halide Segregation

The reversal of halide ions is studied under various conditions. However, the underlying mechanism of heat-induced reversal remains unclear. This work finds that dynamic disorder-induced localization of self-trapped polarons and thermal disorder-induced strain (TDIS) can be co-acting drivers of reverse segregation. Localization of polarons results in an order of magnitude decrease in excess carrier density (polaron population), causing a reduced impact of the light-induced strain (LIS – responsible for segregation) on the perovskite framework. Meanwhile, exposing the lattice to TDIS exceeding the LIS can eliminate the photoexcitation-induced strain gradient, as thermal fluctuations of the lattice can mask the LIS strain. Under continuous 0.1 W cm -2 illumination (upon segregation), the strain disorder is estimated to be 0.14%, while at 80 °C under dark conditions, the strain is 0.23%. However, in situ heating of the segregated film to 80 °C under continuous illumination (upon reversal) increases the total strain disorder to 0.25%, where TDIS is likely to have a dominant contribution. Therefore, the contribution of entropy to the system's free energy is likely to dominate, respectively. Various temperature-dependent in situ measurements and simulations further support the results. These findings highlight the importance of strain homogenization for designing stable perovskites under real-world operating conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling a generic TRISO-fueled heat pipe microreactor using SCALE: Depletion, transportation criticality, and shielding

This paper demonstrates the applicability of the SCALE code system to tristructural-isotropic (TRISO)-fueled heat pipe microreactors through depletion, transportation criticality, and shielding analyses of a generic reference design. The study conducted supports US Nuclear Regulatory Commission code readiness efforts for advanced non–light-water reactor technologies and is intended as a code capability demonstration rather than as an optimization of a specific microreactor design. The modeled reactor employs high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) uranium oxycarbide (UCO) TRISO fuel and beryllium oxide (BeO) reflectors and operates at 7.5 MWth with a nominal lifetime of about 3 effective full power years. Representative cases for fresh and irradiated cores were selected to exercise SCALE methods relevant to reactor operation and post-irradiation transport. The discharged-core decay heat is approximately 6% of operating power immediately after shutdown. Transportation criticality calculations show that internal water ingress is the dominant reactivity effect, with fully flooded fresh core and irradiated core configurations remain above the subcriticality criterion, even with the available control mechanisms. Shielding calculations for a simplified transportation package indicate that normal-condition dose rates are governed mainly by shielding thickness and cooling time, whereas the breached hypothetical accident case is governed primarily by cooling time. Overall, the study shows that SCALE supports depletion, transportation criticality, and shielding evaluations efficiently for TRISO-fueled heat pipe microreactors within a single code system.

Criticality↗
DOE OSTI2027

A multi-region approach for the analysis of porous materials and gas-solid reactions using USAXS-SAXS-WAXS: application to CaO carbonation

The reaction rate of gas-solid non-catalytic reactions is typically investigated using reactant conversion data over time and ex-situ measurements of the porous solid reactant textural properties; these data enable the experimental estimation of the initial intrinsic reaction rate, whereas the evolution of the textural properties and the reaction rate over time are evaluated theoretically using reaction models. In this work, a different methodology is presented, based on: a) in-situ time-resolved USAXS-SAXS-WAXS measurements of the solid sample, and b) a multi-region modeling approach; this methodology allows for the estimation of the textural properties and the intrinsic reaction rate at any time during the reaction. Referring to a reaction in which a solid product is obtained from a solid reactant and a gaseous reactant, the porous particle is described as consisting of several distinct regions with different microstructural properties, and both a gas-solid reaction model and a SAXS model are derived and applied to the carbonation of porous CaO. The proposed reaction model highlights the role of the inaccessible reactant and accurately predicts the solid reactant conversion versus time profile. The SAXS model accurately predicts the measured linear trends of the Porod invariant and of the pre-factor of the power law scattering profile versus CaO mass fraction; in the absence of chemical reactions, the proposed equations extend classical SAXS theory to porous materials containing macropores and nonporous solid phases in addition to standard nanoscale inhomogeneous regions.

CO2 solid sorbents↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interfacial Adhesion Mechanism of Anionic Polyelectrolyte Brushes Induced by Oppositely Charged Macromolecular Counterions

Abstract Polyelectrolyte brushes are widely used as model systems for investigating electrostatic interactions at soft interfaces and to achieve exceptional lubrication properties. Previous studies have primarily focused on their behavior in the presence of multivalent counterions, which induce brush collapse, ionic crosslinking, and pronounced changes in interfacial structures. However, interactions between polyelectrolyte brushes and oppositely charged macromolecular counterions, such as polycations, remain poorly understood. Here, we prepare well-defined polystyrene sulfonate (PSS) brushes fabricated via surface-initiated grafting and employ surface forces apparatus measurements to investigate their interactions with oppositely charged polycations. In contrast to multivalent ions, polycations do not induce noticeable brush collapse, but instead generate significant adhesion between symmetric PSS brush layers. This adhesion increases with both contact time and applied load, eventually reaching a steady plateau, indicating that the interaction is governed not simply by electrostatic screening but by the gradual formation of polycation-mediated bridging under confinement. Furthermore, the introduction of monovalent Na+ ions disrupts the adhesive interaction even at very low concentrations, suggesting that the bridging function of the adsorbed polycation is highly sensitive to competitive ionic screening. In comparison, measurements with trivalent counterions reveal the expected brush collapse behavior but minimal dependence of adhesion on contact time, highlighting a clear mechanistic distinction from the polymeric counterion case. Collectively, these results demonstrate that molecular size, configurational restriction, and confinement-induced rearrangement, rather than charge valency alone, govern the interaction behavior of macromolecular counterions at brush interfaces. This work provides new insight into the molecular origins of adhesion and the regulation of interfacial interactions in charged polymer brush systems.

Park, Jinwoo [Argonne National Laboratory , , , ,;↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of an irradiated uranium sample for source attribution without chemical separation using microplasma ionization and ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry

The use of element isotope ratios has great potential in not only determining the reactor type used to produce plutonium (Pu) but also in determining the burnup and the time since irradiation. While a powerful nuclear forensic technique, determining element isotope ratios is complicated by severe isobaric interferences when performed on typical inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometers. Such analyses require extensive chemical separations prior to analysis to alleviate the inter-elemental isobars. Ultrahigh mass resolution spectrometry provides a potential alternative, greatly reducing the complexity of sample preparation and turnaround times for these critical measurements. To demonstrate the power of the approach, a sample of irradiated, depleted uranium was analyzed with the liquid sampling—atmospheric pressure glow discharge ion source coupled to an Orbitrap mass spectrometer. The Orbitrap is augmented with an external data acquisition system, Spectroswiss’s FTMS-Booster X2T, allowing collection of extended ion transients, providing higher mass resolution. In using this approach, the 150 Sm/ 149 Sm and 152 Sm/ 149 Sm isotope ratios were found to be within 20% of predicted values without any chemical separations and without mass bias corrections. In addition, the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu isotope ratio was determined, free from the 238 UH + interferences common to the ICP-MS platforms, while at the same time allowing for the determination of U isotopic signatures. While these demonstrative results are from a single sample, the advantages of the microplasma/ultrahigh mass resolution approach to intra-element isotope ratio determinations are clear.

Fuel burnup↗
DOE OSTI2026

Final Report: A Multi-Channel Fusion Product

The goal of this project was to measure charged fusion products from the d(d,p)t reaction in MAST-U plasmas as a function of time and position with good energy resolution using a system of up to six charged particle detectors. The data from this new diagnostic will make it possible to determine the neutral beam ion density profile as a function of R, z, and t with reduced model dependency and contribute new information to a global analysis of fast ion diagnostic data needed for the determination of the fast ion distribution function (velocity space tomography).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measuring Climate and Water Risk across the Bulk Power System

As climate impacts increase and power systems transition to renewables, planners and operators need insights into climate risks to power generation and infrastructure to ensure reliable decision-making in the short and long-term. We present a standardized, consistent mechanism for utilities and system operators to evaluate the climate- and water-related risks of their current and future grid assets. Using a risk-based approach on the combined outcomes of high-fidelity climate drivers together with water and power system models, we examine the temperature and water availability impacts within the contiguous United States to power system assets at the water basin level in three different time periods and report resulting outcomes on lost capacity across different expansion scenarios and climate models. The results indicate that air temperature has the highest effect on derating. Changes in streamflow do not have a large impact on generation capacity at the national level. Electric sector buildout scenarios each have a unique regional risk profile, depending on the technology mix and total capacity, although risks from high temperatures are significant for both traditional and renewable energy generation. Stakeholders can use this approach to monitor effects of generation capacity losses and potential impacts as climate, generation mix, and infrastructure change.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗