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DOE OSTI2025

A critical review and meta-analysis of energy demand, carbon footprint, and other environmental impacts from carbon fiber manufacturing

The demand for carbon fibers and carbon fiber-reinforced polymers (CFRPs) is rapidly growing due to their outstanding mechanical properties and potential to enhance sustainability, particularly for lightweighting applications. However, carbon fibers are typically produced from fossil-based feedstocks, involve energy-intensive processes, and have limited options for sustainable end-of-life management or circularity. Despite these challenges, the energy demand and lifecycle environmental implications of their production remain poorly understood. Here, we conduct a critical literature review and meta-analysis of carbon fiber manufacturing, revealing significant variations in reported energy demand, carbon footprint, and lifecycle inventory data. Our analysis makes two novel contributions. First, we identify key underlying factors driving these variations. Second, we highlight that carbon fiber, far from being a homogeneous product, has grades varying substantially in mechanical properties, end-use markets, energy intensity of manufacturing processes, and therefore environmental impacts—an aspect often underrepresented in life cycle assessments. We assert that current data are insufficient for reliably evaluating environmental impacts, posing a risk of misleading decision-making. Addressing this gap requires new lifecycle inventory datasets clearly incorporating carbon fiber heterogeneity and key influencing factors identified in this study. Additionally, we propose actionable recommendations, including a checklist, to advance sustainability in the carbon fiber sector.

CED↗

DOE OSTI2025

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies that maximize portfolio-wide life cycle cost reduction, resilience, and environmental justice benefits

While strategies to achieve net-zero emissions at an individual site are well understood, new analysis methods are required for organizations seeking to achieve net-zero across multiple facilities, each with concurrent priority goals. At a portfolio level, distinct locations present varied challenges that cannot be addressed through singular solutions, and competing goals can take precedence with the assumption that net-zero emissions strategies deter from energy resilience and cost savings, therefore negatively impacting nearby communities. This study tests these assumptions by analyzing 16 diverse sites (varying in size, climate, and energy use) to identify strategies that reduce emissions and assess the impact these strategies have on life cycle costs, resilience, and communities with environmental justice concerns. Methods were developed to approximate missing information essential to net-zero evaluation. Established methods were augmented to evaluate life cycle costs, resilience, and environmental justice impacts across a set of strategies and accommodate the multi-criteria analyses. Potential benefits from identified strategies were quantified using site characteristics and a set of corresponding metrics. The net-zero analysis found that 11 sites could use on-site strategies to eliminate all but 2% of emissions generated. The remaining emissions can be offset, for instance through sequestration, executed at the portfolio scale. On-site carbon-free energy was found to reduce 51% of emissions across all sites; efficiency reduced 19% of emissions; sequestration 16%; procured carbon-free energy 15%; fuel switching 1.6%; and fleet electrification 1.3%. Building electrification, however, increased emissions by 4.4%. Different strategies also provide cost, resilience, and/or environmental justice benefits—the degree to which varies with individual site conditions. The findings indicate an advantage to considering the strategies as a comprehensive set, which leads to co-benefits, both in the ability to achieve net-zero goals and in advancing other goals. The results present the case for comprehensive advanced planning at the portfolio level to prioritize investments that will balance the minimization of emissions and life cycle cost with the maximization of resilience and environmental justice benefits. The novel methods for evaluation and integration, valuation of benefits, and consideration at the portfolio scale allow organizations to select investments that simultaneously address multiple key priorities.

Net-Zero Emissions↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bending and shear improvements in 3D-printed core sandwich composites through modification of resin uptake in the skin/core interphase region

Fused deposition modeling (FDM) printed polymers are rarely used as a structural material due to anisotropic and low mechanical properties compared with conventional composites. In recent years, greater need has been expressed for recycling of materials, such as recyclable FDM, at the end of service life to reduce environmental pollution and manufacture cost. However, how the amount of resin uptake in the skin and skin/core interphase affects the bending and shear performance of the sandwich composites when replacing the low strength and ductile core (conventional core) with a high strength and brittle core (FDM printed PLA (polylactic acid) core) still remains unclear. A new manufacturing routine is needed to improve the incorporation of FDM printed polymers in composite structures. In this work, FDM printed PLA was used as core material and sandwiched between two unidirectional glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) skins to form a sandwich composite by compression-molding (CM) process, which provides a good manufacturing strategy for skin/core interphase modification. The significance of the CM process is proved by investigating the effect of resin uptake on bending and in-plane/out-of-plane shear performances. Current first order shear deformation (FSDT) theory lacks a direct connection between the in-plane shear stress and out-of-shear stress in the core region of sandwich composites. With the help of DIC, a connection between the in-plane shear and the out-of-plane shear strain was built and in-plane shear properties can acquire through out-of-plane shear properties, hence reducing the redundancy of sample preparation or the need for simulation. A significant improvement was found compared with the optimized resin uptake (Optimized resin uptake range: 20.43%–22.86 wt%) 3D-printed PLA core sandwich composite and lowest performance sandwich composite (Improvement: in-plane shear strength (~34%)/modulus (~29%), out-of-plane shear strength (~25%)/modulus (~31%), specific peak bending load (~19%)). Finally, compared with balsa core sandwich composites, the 3D-printed cores are suitable for use in composite sandwich structures in many applications with a satisfactory strength-to-weight ratio.

3D-printed core sandwich composite↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influence of functional additives, fillers, and pigments on thermal and catalytic pyrolysis of polyethylene for waste plastic upcycling

Pyrolysis offers a relatively green and economical method to convert waste plastics into valuable chemicals and fuels without the need for harmful solvents, toxic chemicals, or costly high-pressure reactors. Despite its popularity among chemical upcycling technologies, industrial adoption suffers from feedstock heterogeneity, low-quality products, and catalyst deactivation. Most plastics in our daily lives are formulated with functional additives, fillers, and colorants. These additives remaining in end-of-life waste streams increase feedstock heterogeneity, creating a challenging issue in recycling plastics. Still, the potential impacts of additives on the chemical upcycling of plastics have been poorly understood. In this study, polyethylene compounded with a range of widely used additives (antioxidants, stabilizers, pigments, fillers, slip agents, and flame retardants) was subjected to both thermal pyrolysis and catalytic pyrolysis in different catalyst-to-feedstock contact modes. It showed that many inorganic additives, such as talc, kaolin, CaCO 3 , TiO 2 , carbon black, and zinc stearate, facilitated polymer decomposition during pyrolysis, increasing light hydrocarbons while also promoting aromatic and carbon residue formation. Conversely, antioxidants and stabilizers inhibited depolymerization, favoring heavier hydrocarbons. During catalytic pyrolysis with HZSM-5 zeolite, additives strongly enhanced aromatic and catalytic coke formation, especially when there was direct contact between plastics and catalysts. Although certain additives seem beneficial in the short term by promoting polymer cracking and improving the selectivity of aromatics, the transport of the additives and their degradation products and increased carbon coking can contaminate products, deactivate or modify catalysts, and foul reactors. These findings address a critical knowledge gap in effectively converting waste plastics via a greener route.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A simplified approach for creep damage and remaining life calculation for materials surveillance in advanced reactors

High temperature reactor materials will experience a combination of mechanical degradation caused by creep and fatigue and environmental degradation caused by neutron irradiation and, in some cases, exposure to corrosive coolants. A materials surveillance program is one option for ensuring the safe, reliable operation of key reactor components under these conditions. Such a program would monitor the degradation in key material properties over time, using this data to predict how changes in the material properties affect components performance. This could then be used to make plant operational decisions and support eventual plant license extensions. Past work de-scribes such a material surveillance program based on passively actuated mechanical test articles that impose creep-fatigue type loading on test materials driven only by changes in temperature, for example those experienced by components under standard operating cycles. This report focuses on two aspects of the proposed material surveillance program: how to design the test articles to mimic the mechanical response of the corresponding component and how to use ex-situ test data to deter-mine the amount of damaged experienced by the test article (and hence the corresponding compo-nent) in service. Specifically, this report derives and validated simplified methods for both tasks, replacing earlier, more complicated approaches based on simulating the test article response and finding the best specimen design or current damage via complex numerical optimization. The sim-plified methods for each task developed here can be implemented in spreadsheet software and are simple enough for practical use in future operating plants. This report derives the methods (one for sizing and two options for damage inference), verifies the simplified approaches versus more so-phisticated methods, and compares the results of applying the simplified methods to previous re-sults using the complex numerical optimization approach. The report also provides a worked sam-pled problem applying the simplified techniques to a realistic high temperature reactor component.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Simulation and Computing: ASC FY24 Implementation Plan

The DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) is an integrated technical program for maintaining the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. The SSP incorporates nuclear test data, computational modeling and simulation, and experimental facilities to advance understanding of nuclear weapons. The suite of data analyzed comes from activities including previous nuclear tests, stockpile surveillance, experimental research, and development and engineering programs. This integrated national program requires the continued use of experimental facilities and the computational capabilities to support the SSP missions. These component parts, in addition to an appropriately scaled production capability, enable NNSA to support stockpile requirements. The ultimate goal of the SSP, and thus of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program, is to ensure that the U.S. maintains a safe, secure, and effective strategic deterrent. The ASC program is a cornerstone of the SSP, providing simulation capabilities and computational resources to support the annual stockpile assessment and certification process, study advanced nuclear weapons design and manufacturing processes, analyze accident scenarios and weapons aging, and provide the tools to enable stockpile Life Extension Programs (LEPs) and the resolution of Significant Finding Investigations (SFIs). This work requires a balance of resources, including technical staff, hardware, simulation software, and computer science solutions. The ASC program focuses on increasing the predictive capabilities in a three-dimensional (3D) simulation environment while maintaining support to the SSP. The Program continues to improve its unique tools for understanding and solving progressively more difficult stockpile problems (sufficient resolution, dimensionality, and scientific details), and quantifying critical margins and uncertainties. Resolving each issue requires increasingly difficult analyses because the aging process has progressively moved the stockpile further from the original test base. While the focus remains on the U.S. nuclear weapons program, where possible, the Program also enables the use of high-performance computing (HPC) and simulation tools to address broader national security needs, such as foreign nuclear weapon assessments and nuclear counterterrorism. The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) calls for NNSA to “deliver a modern, adaptive nuclear security enterprise based on an integrated strategy for risk management, production-based resilience, science and technology innovation, and workforce initiatives.” Furthermore, “NNSA will establish a Science and Technology Innovation Initiative to accelerate the integration of science and technology (S&T) throughout its activities.” Executing this strategy necessitates the continued emphasis on developing and sustaining high-quality scientific and engineering staff, as well as supporting computational and experimental capabilities. These components constitute the foundation of the nuclear weapons program. The continued success of the SSP and LEPs is predicated upon the ability to credibly certify the stockpile, without a return to underground nuclear tests (UGTs). Shortly after the nuclear test moratorium entered into force in 1992, the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) was established to provide an extensive simulation capability to underpin stockpile certification. While computing and simulation have always been essential to the success of the nuclear weapons program, the program goal of ASCI was to execute NNSA’s vision of using these tools in support of the stockpile stewardship mission. The ASCI program was essential to the successful demonstration of the SSP, providing critical nuclear weapons simulation and modeling capabilities. ASCI officially evolved into the ASC program in fiscal year (FY) 2005, but the mission remains essentially the same: provide the simulation and computational capabilities that underpin the ability to maintain a safe, secure, effective nuclear weapon stockpile, without returning to underground nuclear testing. The capabilities that the ASC program provides at the national laboratories play a vital role in the nuclear security enterprise and are necessary for fulfilling the stockpile stewardship and life extension requirements outlined for NNSA. The Program develops modern simulation tools that provide insights into stockpile aging issues, provide the computational and simulation tools that enable designers and analysts to certify the current stockpile and life-extended nuclear weapons, and inform the decision-making process when any modifications in nuclear warheads or the associated manufacturing processes are deemed necessary. Furthermore, ASC is enhancing the predictive simulation capabilities that are essential to evaluate weapons effects, design experiments, and ensure test readiness. The ASC program continues to improve its unique tools to solve stockpile problems— with a focus on sufficient resolution, dimensionality, and scientific detail—to enable Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) and to resolve the increasingly difficult analyses needed for stockpile stewardship. The needs of the Stockpile Management and Production Modernization programs (formerly Directed Stockpile Work) also drive the requirements for simulation and computational resources. These requirements include planned LEPs, stockpile support activities, and mitigation efforts against the potential for technical surprise. All of the weapons within the current stockpile are in some stage of the life extension process. The simulation and computational capabilities are crucial for successful execution of these life extensions and for ensuring NNSA can certify these life-extended weapons without conducting a UGT.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generating multi-scale Li-ion battery cathode particles with radial grain architectures using stereological generative adversarial networks

Abstract Understanding structure-property relationships of Li-ion battery cathodes is crucial for optimizing rate-performance and cycle-life resilience. However, correlating the morphology of cathode particles, such as in LiNi0.8Mn0.1Co0.1O2 (NMC811), and their inner grain architecture with electrode performance is challenging, particularly, due to the significant length-scale difference between grain and particle sizes. Experimentally, it is not feasible to image such a high number of particles with full granular detail. A second challenge is that sufficiently high-resolution 3D imaging techniques remain expensive and are sparsely available at research institutions. Here, we present a stereological generative adversarial network-based model fitting approach to tackle this, that generates representative 3D information from 2D data, enabling characterization of materials in 3D using cost-effective 2D data. Once calibrated, this multi-scale model can rapidly generate virtual cathode particles that are statistically similar to experimental data, and thus is suitable for virtual characterization and materials testing through numerical simulations. A large dataset of simulated particles with inner grain architecture has been made publicly available.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitor Vulnerability Evaluation in DC Power Supplies at the Spallation Neutron Source

The service life of electrolytic capacitors is a concern for long-term reliable operation of power supplies. The Power Conversion Group at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) facility of Oak Ridge National Laboratory is responsible for more than 500 power supplies with over 1000 electrolytic capacitors installed in these power supplies. Most of the electrolytic capacitors have been in operation since 2007 and are either well over or close to the manufacturer provided lifetime. This paper addresses this vulnerability to ensure continued reliable operation of the SNS. The power supply circuit is simulated in a MATLAB/Simulink environment to quantify the capacitor ripple current and operating voltage. Combined with manufacturer data, this information is used to estimate capacitor lifetime. Utilizing the simulation results and lifetime projections of the capacitors, capacitor replacements for the power supplies is prioritized. To assess end-of-life, the ambient temperature and ripple current of the capacitor is used. Based on the manufacturer's data and scientific literature review, capacitor end-of-life is established. The results of the simulations and analysis is presented. Data on the highest priority supplies will also be presented, and statistics on the capacitor performance, reliability and remaining lifetime will be shown.

Harave, Sudarshan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Lithium Metal Anode Volumetric Expansion through Laser Plasma Focused Ion Beam Cross-Sectional Imaging

Lithium metal is an ideal anode for high energy density batteries, however the implementation of lithium metal anodes remains challenging. Beyond the development of highly efficient electrolytes, degradation processes restrict cycle life and reduce practical energy density. Herein lithium volumetric expansion and degradation pathways are studied in half cells through coupling electrochemical analysis with cross-sectional imaging of the intact electrode stack using a cryogenic laser plasma focused ion beam and scanning electron microscope. Here, we find that the volumetric capacity is compromised as early as the first cycle, at best reaching values only half the theoretical capacity (1033 vs 2045 mAh cm -3 ). By the 101st electrodeposition, the practical volumetric capacity decreases to values ranging from 143 to 343 mAh cm -3 .

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Technoeconomic feasibility of photovoltaic recycling

Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) modules are a key technology to aid the imminent transition from carbon‐based energy. End‐of‐life crystalline silicon PV modules produce a waste stream that is predominantly landfilled due to the recycling challenges associated with PV reuse economics. Current practices recycle the aluminum frame and repurpose the junction box but landfill the rest of the module. The primary challenge in recycling the remaining module is finding a technoeconomically viable method for separating the silicon and glass from the ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) layers. This issue will rapidly expand with time as it is estimated that flat glass production for solar panels is currently unable to meet the demand for PV. Current literature suggests that chemical, thermal, and mechanical delamination offer economically feasible solutions under ideal circumstances. In this work we evaluate these methods using end‐of‐life panels and assess the economic viability. The technoeconomic study presented here suggests the most economically viable option for disposing of end‐of‐life solar panels, given current technology, is landfilling. Thermal delamination may offer an alternative route in the future. Financial incentives, which can be quantified with this work, may be required to kickstart PV recycling to help bridge externalities around environmental impact.

Crespo, Beatrice↗

DOE OSTI2021

Contrasting characteristics of open- and closed-cellular stratocumulus cloud in the eastern North Atlantic

Abstract. Extensive regions of marine boundary layer cloud impact the radiative balance through their significant shortwave albedo while having little impact on outgoing longwave radiation. Despite this importance, these cloud systems remain poorly represented in large-scale models due to difficulty in representing the processes that drive their life cycle and coverage. In particular, the mesoscale organization and cellular structure of marine boundary clouds have important implications for the subsequent cloud feedbacks. In this study, we use long-term (2013–2018) observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility's Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site on Graciosa Island, Azores, Portugal, to identify cloud cases with open- or closed-cellular organization. More than 500 h of each organization type are identified. The ARM observations are combined with reanalysis and satellite products to quantify the cloud, precipitation, aerosol, thermodynamic, and large-scale synoptic characteristics associated with these cloud types. Our analysis shows that both cloud organization populations occur during similar sea surface temperature conditions, but the open-cell cases are distinguished by stronger cold-air advection and large-scale subsidence compared to the closed-cell cases, consistent with their formation during cold-air outbreaks. We also find that the open-cell cases were associated with deeper boundary layers, stronger low-level winds, and higher rain rates compared to their closed-cell counterparts. Finally, raindrops with diameters larger than 1 mm were routinely recorded at the surface during both populations, with a higher number of large drops during the open-cellular cases. The similarities and differences noted herein provide important insights into the environmental and cloud characteristics during varying marine boundary layer cloud mesoscale organization and will be useful for the evaluation of model simulations for ENA marine clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Subtask 1.3 – Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage for North Dakota Ethanol Production

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Red Trail Energy, LLC (RTE), a North Dakota ethanol producer; the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Renewable Energy Program (REP); and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), conducted a feasibility and implementation study for a commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) effort. This subtask provided technical support and developed recommended practices of how small-scale industrial CO2 emitters (<1,000,000 tonnes of CO2 emitted annually) may economically deploy CCS. The 64-million-gallon dry mill RTE ethanol facility, emitting an average 180,000 tonnes of CO2 annually, was the subject of the case study. The positive outcome of this research, which shows technical and economic potential for ethanol–CCS in North Dakota, has resulted in RTE acquiring an approved Permit to Drill on December 2, 2019, for a stratigraphic test well in early 2020, a necessary step toward a North Dakota CO2 Storage Facility Permit (SFP) for the RTE CCS effort. Outcomes include 1) validating the Broom Creek Formation as a regional target for CCS, 2) determining the full carbon life cycle of an industrial fuel production facility with CCS, 3) developing a field implementation plan (FIP) for small-scale CCS, and 4) determining the validity and pathway for using CCS to meet low-carbon fuel (LCF) standards. The technical team included the EERC, RTE, Trimeric Corporation, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Computer Modelling Group (CMG). Findings from activities conducted November 2016 – May 2020 are summarized as follows. Several key steps have been accomplished toward validating the Broom Creek Formation as a CO2 injection and storage target at the RTE CCS site, including verification of the presence and structure of sandstone layers that may comprise the potential CO2 storage reservoir and the several thousand feet of overlying confining zone. Work included site characterization using existing data, interpretation of seismic data within the study area, and geologic modeling simulation of CO2 injection. Interpreted results estimate 3000 feet of confining zone between the Broom Creek Formation (storage target) and the lowermost underground source of drinking water (e.g., the Fox Hills Formation). The thickness of the Broom Creek injection target varies 230–420 ft within the survey area. Results were used to inform the location of a stratigraphic test well and associated characterization test program. No impediments were identified within the targeted CO2 storage complex that would prevent the project from moving forward. A stratigraphic test well is the next step to validate these results and to acquire remaining data necessary to develop a North Dakota CO2 SFP application. The EERC generated full carbon life cycle estimates for CCS integration with the RTE ethanol facility. Results indicated that an average 40% reduction in CO2 emissions is possible through CCS implementation. Approximately half of the carbon in the overall life cycle for a dry mill ethanol plant is generated through the fermentation process and emitted to the atmosphere; this is the CO2 stream targeted for CCS. The remaining carbon is attributed to corn feedstock farming (diesel, fertilizer), energy for fuel processing (natural gas, electricity), and transportation (diesel) of the fuel product. Life cycle carbon estimates are also affected by the anticipated energy consumption of a potential capture facility, which depend on the type of CO2 product generated. For example, a 30%–40% net CO2 emission reduction is estimated if a liquefied CO2 facility were incorporated compared to a 40%–50% net CO2 reduction if a supercritical “injection-grade” CO2 product is generated; i.e., more energy is required to further refine the CO2 stream, affecting the full carbon life cycle estimates. A CCS FIP was developed and initiated at the RTE CCS site, resulting in the development of several guidance documents: a CO2 Capture Process Design Package, a North Dakota CO2 geologic Storage Permits Template, and a Public Outreach Package for CCS in North Dakota. General FIP components include CO2 capture system, pipeline and well designs; monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) plans; geologic characterization and testing programs; and permitting and outreach plans. Vendor bids were also acquired for the CO2 liquefaction facility. Near-surface characterization (groundwater and soil gas sampling) and geologic characterization (seismic survey) were initiated to inform development of a UIC Class VI-compliant MVA plan compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. Designs (well and geologic testing) were completed for a stratigraphic test well compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. In addition, the outreach plan was executed, including community open houses, meetings with city/county/state officials, and development of public materials. Although other entities continued to mature incentive programs in 2019–2020, California and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) currently provide the most advanced economic opportunities for CCS integrated with fuel production. The California Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) adopted a CCS Protocol in January 2019, allowing submittal of a design-based pathway (DBP) application for an approved temporary (not certified) carbon intensity value for a fully engineered facility. An ethanol–CCS DBP application to the California LCFS Program (officially approved February 28, 2020) was developed to show that the RTE CCS effort meets LCFS requirements. The approved DBP provides confidence to advance the project and supports potential investments. Other entities continue to mature incentive programs. The IRS issued guidance in February 2020 that addresses the definition of beginning of construction and revenue procedure on partnerships for the Enhancement of Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Credit (a.k.a. Section 45Q) CCS tax credit program; the IRS anticipates issuing further guidance on issues such as secure geologic storage, utilization qualifications, and recapture of claimed credits. Maturing incentive programs coupled with workable permitting regulations provide confidence to advance CCS projects in North Dakota and support financial investment to proceed with designing, constructing, and implementing CCS projects at small-scale fuel production facilities. The largest hurdles for CCS implementation at small-scale industrial systems are often business/economic-related (i.e., not technical). Market uncertainty already exists for agriculture-based alternative fuels such as corn ethanol, for which production has increased by ~33%, and prices have correspondingly lowered since 2015. Passing the Section 45Q tax credit program improves economic feasibility for CCS but may require external investors for a small business to achieve maximum benefits. Public–private partnerships with NDIC and DOE have resulted in foundational technical and regulatory knowledge, growing stakeholder confidence, and a pathway to implementation that enables similar industrial CCS projects in the region to advance. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by NDIC and RTE. The authors would also like to thank CMG, ESRI, IHS, Neuralog, and Schlumberger for allowing the use of their software packages in support of this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the impact of preparation routes on the properties of copper-decorated silicon particles as anode materials for lithium-ion batteries

In recent years, the calendar life of Si has been recognized as a significant issue that must be addressed prior to technology deployment: The carbon conductive additive is a potential source of parasitic side reactions. However, carbon remains essential due to the low electronic conductivity of Si. In this study, we investigate the use of Cu as a conductive additive and potential alternative to carbon. Some Cu-decorated silicon particles (Si Cu ) were prepared using physical vapor deposition (PVD) via sputtering and high-energy milling. Other Si Cu particles were prepared by using a solution method and examined briefly. The milling method caused Cu to appear as island-like features on the Si surface, whereas the PVD method initially produced similar island-like features that gradually developed into a continuous coating around the Si as sputtering time increased. Electrodes fabricated from Si Cu exhibited lower overall resistivity, demonstrating the beneficial effect of Cu in improving electronic percolation through the electrode. Electrochemical tests showed that the milled SiCu exhibited higher capacity retention, improved rate capability, and lower overpotential. Furthermore, Si Cu coupled with an NMC811 cathode exhibited lower leakage currents compared with the baseline silicon, indicating that incorporating Cu provided an additional advantage of minimizing parasitic currents in the cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Public Health Surveillance and Environmental Data to Model Presence of Histoplasma in the United States

In the United States, the true geographic distribution of the environmental fungus Histoplasma capsulatum remains poorly understood but appears to have changed since it was first characterized. Histoplasmosis is caused by inhalation of the fungus and can range in severity from asymptomatic to life-threatening. Due to limited public health surveillance and under detection of infections, it is challenging to directly use reported case data to characterize spatial risk. Using monthly and yearly county-level public health surveillance data and various environmental and socioeconomic characteristics, we use a spatio-temporal occupancy model to estimate latent, or unobserved, presence of H. capsulatum , accounting for imperfect detection of histoplasmosis cases. We estimate areas with higher probabilities of the presence of H. capsulatum in the East North Central states around the Great Lakes, reflecting a shift of the endemic region to the north from previous estimates. The presence of H. capsulatum was strongly associated with higher soil nitrogen levels. In this investigation, we were able to mitigate challenges related to reporting and illustrate a shift in the endemic region from historical estimates. This work aims to help inform future surveillance needs, clinical awareness, and testing decisions for histoplasmosis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Packages in KAC (2021 Status Report)

Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples following accelerated aging for up to 16 years. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 and non3013 containers in storage from 15 years to 20 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 20 years in storage using degradation models developed previously. The updated degradation models developed in this report have been compared to the assumptions in these calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, radial thermal conductivity, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. The axial thermal conductivity degradation rate slightly exceeds calculations estimate of 0.5% per year between 130 and 160 °F. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are extreme. However, these relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or would be postulated only as upset conditions that would not likely persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 ºF, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 20 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 20 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of nonconforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Panspermia Origin for Venus Cloud Life

Decades of study have hinted at the astrobiological potential of Venus's cloud layers. This potential is often cast as stemming from the idea that the Venusian surface was clement in the past. As the climate changed, life then remained in, or perhaps evolved and migrated to, the last habitable niche: the altitudes above ∼50 km with Earth-like temperatures and pressures today. Here we explore an alternative scenario where life was delivered to Venus' clouds from Earth or Mars (“panspermia”). This process requires a life-containing bolide to enter the atmosphere, without experiencing complete sterilization, and then be dispersed at high altitude in fragments small enough to dwell in the clouds. We adapt a widely used model of bolide-atmosphere interaction to investigate the fate of bolides delivered to Venus from Earth and Mars. Starting at the top of the atmosphere, bolides ablate and fragment. Aerodynamic drag spreads these fragments horizontally, forming a “pancake” with an increased effective cross-section, causing rapid deceleration. An airburst occurs when the bolide deposits its highest amount of kinetic energy in the atmosphere. Observations of terrestrial meteorites provide a scaling law for the distribution of post-airburst fragment sizes. Inspired by the “Venus Life Equation,” we present a framework for calculating the rate at which panspermia delivers microbial life to the clouds of Venus. Our best estimate is an average of ∼100 cells dispersed in the clouds per Earth-year. Whether this life can survive and thrive in its new home remains an open question.

Guinan, Emma [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (Unit↗

DOE OSTI2025

Gas-mediated defect engineering in earth-abundant Mn-rich layered oxides for non-aqueous sodium-based batteries

Gases are often by-products of battery materials during cell formation and degradation, affecting the cycle life and safety of rechargeable batteries. However, understanding gas-mediated (electro)-chemical reactions and nanoscale structural transformations during the synthesis of battery electrode materials remains challenging because of the lack of suitable characterization routes and the complexity of the interplay between thermodynamics and kinetics. Here, in this study, we use operando synchrotron X-ray diffraction, in situ transmission X-ray microscopy and multiscale modelling to elucidate the reaction pathways and microstructural defect development of earth-abundant Mn-rich layered oxides as positive electrode materials for sodium-based batteries. In particular, we demonstrate the dominant role of CO 2 over O 2 and H 2 O (g) in modulating the competition between entropy and enthalpy during solid-state synthesis. Using Ni 0.25 Mn 0.75 CO 3 as a model precursor, we reveal that CO 2 generation favours the formation of entropy-driven metastable intermediates, suppresses closed pore/nanovoids formation and decreases chemical heterogeneity and residual lattice strain of Mn-rich layered oxides during the synthesis. This result motivates a fast-sintering strategy to promote CO 2 release, which ultimately leads to improved chemo-mechanical and electrochemical stability of the Mn-rich positive electrodes when tested in non-aqueous Na metal coin cells.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced flood synchrony and downstream severity in the Delaware River under rising temperatures

River floods threaten life and economic stability, with risks increasing globally, especially in densely populated coastal areas. In mountainous coastal watersheds like the Delaware River Basin, rising temperature is projected to reduce snowpack, reshaping upstream–downstream flood dynamics. However, the impact on flood synchronization between upland tributaries and estuarine mainstems remains poorly understood. Using multidecadal streamflow simulations from a high-resolution hydrological model, we find significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of synchronized floods under future warming scenarios, particularly severe floods (above the 75 th percentile). Under higher warming scenarios, snowpack and rain-on-snow floods in headwater subbasins nearly vanish. Surprisingly, this regime shift amplifies estuarine flooding by enhancing synchronization between historically snow-dominated subbasins and their downstream counterparts. Despite intensified synchronization and flood magnitude, cold-season flood risk declines due to fewer rain-on-snow events. Conversely, summer floods grow larger, more frequent, and synchronized, driving a seasonal reconfiguration of flood risk that should be considered in future mitigation strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗