Results for “Resilience Assessment” — Page 7

NASA NTRS1999

Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region

The objective of the research is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the Metro East Coast (MEC) region. We illustrate how three interacting elements of global cities react and respond to climate variability and change with a broad conceptual model. These elements include: people (e.g., socio- demographic conditions), place (e.g., physical systems), and pulse (e.g., decision-making and economic activities). The model assumes that a comprehensive assessment of potential climate change can be derived from examining the impacts within each of these elements and at their intersections. Thus, the assessment attempts to determine the within-element and the inter-element effects. Five interacting sector studies representing the three intersecting elements are evaluated. They include the Coastal Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decision-making. Each study assesses potential climate change impacts on the sector and on the intersecting elements, through the analysis of the following parts: 1. Current conditions of sector in the region; 2. Lessons and evidence derived from past climate variability; 3. Scenario predictions affecting sector; potential impacts of scenario predictions; 4. Knowledge/information gaps and critical issues including identification of additional research questions, effectiveness of modeling efforts, equity of impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations; and 5. Identification of coping strategies - i.e., resilience building, mitigation strategies, new technologies, education that affects decision-making, and better preparedness for contingencies.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS2004

Modeling and Evaluation of Canted Coil Springs as High Temperature Seal Preloading Devices

Future reusable launch vehicles will require advanced structural seals. This includes propulsion seals along edges and hinge lines in hypersonic engines, and control surface seals for movable flaps and elevons on proposed reentry vehicles. Seals must remain in sealing engagement with opposing surfaces, for multiple missions, even though the seal gap may be opening and closing due to thermal and structural loads. To meet this requirement either the seals themselves must be resilient or there must be a resilient structural element behind the seals. Case Western Reserve University is working with NASA s Glenn Research Center to develop more resilient high temperature seal components and preloading devices. Results are presented for a finite element analysis of a canted coil spring that is being considered as a high temperature seal preloading device. This type of spring is a leading candidate due to its ability to provide nearly constant force over a large deflection. The finite element analyses were verified by comparing them to experimental results of canted coil springs of three different stiffnesses, measured at Glenn Research Center. Once validated the parameterized model was combined with a scripting algorithm to assess the effects of key spring design variables (wire diameter, coils per inch, cant amplitude, eccentricity, and spring width) on spring stiffness and maximum Von Mises stress to aid in subsequent design.

Oswald, Jay J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Overview of NASA's Air Traffic Management - eXploration (ATM-X) Project

Projected increases in new vehicle types, new missions, and the continual growth in traditional (e.g., airlines, general aviation) aviation will require changes to the current air traffic system, particularly to accommodate the desire of operators to be more involved in air traffic decisions. To address these challenges, the National Airspace System needs to undergo a transformation to a more scalable, flexible, user-focused system that addresses safety and security requirements and resiliency for current and new users. A system designed to integrate modular software services, provided by users, third parties and government for air traffic management functions, will be scalable and more easily allow modernization and for collaboration between users and service providers. ATM-X is responding to NASA's pivot towards integrating projected new, diverse entrants into the NAS, while also leveraging NASA's prior ATM achievements that continue to improve traditional airspace operations. This project is a two-phased approach to conduct research and focused evaluations to assess the feasibility of a service-based approach and to identify critical design considerations to enable airspace access for new entrants, integrated with current traditional operations. Phase 1 research will be conducted to determine what is needed to reach the ATM-X goals based on specific use-cases to enable large-scale, passenger-carrying Urban Air Mobility operations in a metroplex environment, and also to improve traditional operations in the Northeast Region leveraging mature NASA technologies. Some of these evaluations will be conducted in simulations and field activities. Phase 2 will build upon Phase 1 towards more defined, focused research and field demonstrations in real-world environments to integrate multiple elements of a scalable, service-based ATM-X concept.

air traffic management↗

NASA NTRS2016

Disturbance and the Carbon Balance of US Forests: A Quantitative Review of Impacts from Harvests, Fires, Insects, and Droughts

Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y(exp -1) in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y(exp -1)), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

Williams, Christopher A.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Assessing Flow Formability of Aerospace Aluminum Alloys via DIC Tensile Testing

Over the past decade, NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has championed integrally stiffened cylinder (ISC) technology for single-piece, cryogenic tank barrels on launch vehicles. The current investigation aims to extend the hybrid spin/shear/flow forming process to aircraft fuselage structures, a damage tolerance critical application. The WF Maschinenbau VUD-600® vertical spin/flow forming facility recently established at LaRC represents a reasonable sub-scale facsimile of the ISC deformation process for research and development (R&D) purposes. The objective of this study is to explore whether tensile testing with digital image correlation (DIC) is an effective way to rank the formability of candidate aerospace Al alloys and expedite empirical forming trials. Specific tensile data, such as reduction of area, strain hardening exponent, and modulus of resilience, are used as formability metrics for a variety of alloy/temper/product form combinations. Results from high-strength aluminum alloys AA 2139, AA 2050, AA 2043 and AA 2219 are compared with the medium-strength, highly formable AA 6061 benchmark. Rolled, forged and cast preform materials in both the -O temper (fully annealed) and -T4 temper (solution-treated, quenched, and naturally aged) conditions are evaluated. AA 2139 plate in the -T4 temper emerges as the top-ranked material, based on the criteria selected. Starting with preforms in the -T4 temper will result in flow-formed material exhibiting mechanical properties closer to aircraft fuselage requirements. The optimum balance between strength and damage tolerance may also be achieved via post-forming procedures that avoid quenching and stretching.

Aluminum alloys↗

NASA NTRS2022

Milwaukee Urban Development: Assessing Climate Vulnerability through the InVEST Model on Urban Cooling in Milwaukee Using NASA Earth Observations

Milwaukee’s neighborhoods experience increased social, health, and ecological stress from the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect due to changing land cover and climate. Extreme urban heat disproportionately affects Black and Latine communities due to systematic disinvestment in infrastructure and lack of resources to cope with heat. Our partner, Groundwork Milwaukee, supports Environmental Justice organizing around urban heat in historically redlined neighborhoods. This study explores heat mitigation in Metcalfe Park, one such neighborhood that is a focus area for our partner, as well as across the city and county of Milwaukee. Our team utilized the Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Model for urban cooling to model heat mitigation scenarios for Milwaukee in support of Groundwork’s climate resilience and heat mitigation work. The data inputs used in our analysis were Land Use Land Cover (LULC), evapotranspiration, and surface temperature derived from NASA Earth observations, as well as a biophysical table containing land cover class attributes. We developed a heat vulnerability index from American Community Survey datasets and satellite imagery to identify areas in most need of heat mitigation intervention. We found that central and northwest city areas, home to a majority of Milwaukee’s Black and Latine population, have low heat mitigation and high vulnerability to heat impacts compared to the rest of the county. We also found that tree canopy increases across scales are effective in promoting heat mitigation. Our results and end products will bolster the efforts of our partners to make decisions on heat mitigation strategies, build community resilience, and reverse legacies of environmental racism in the face of extreme heat and climate change.

urban heat island↗

NASA NTRS1992

Life support systems for Mars transit

The structural elements of life-support systems are reviewed in order to assess the suitability of specific features for use during a Mars mission. Life-support requirements are estimated by means of an approximate input/output analysis, and the advantages are listed relating to the use of recycling and regeneration techniques. The technological options for regeneration are presented in categories such as CO2 reduction, organics removal, polishing, food production, and organics oxidation. These data form the basis of proposed mission requirements and constraints as well as the definition of what constitutes an adequate reserve. Regenerative physical/chemical life-support systems are championed based exclusively on the mass savings inherent in the technology. The resiliency and 'soft' failure modes of bioregenerative life-support systems are identified as areas of investigation.

Macelroy, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Flight Test Results from the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Project with Adaptation to a Simulated Stabilator Failure

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be more resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane and subjected to an inflight simulation of a failed (frozen) (unmovable) stabilator. Formation flight handling qualities evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to decouple the roll and pitch response and reestablish good onboard model tracking. Flight evaluation with the simulated stabilator failure and adaptation engaged showed that there was generally improvement in the pitch response; however, a tendency for roll pilot-induced oscillation was experienced. A detailed discussion of the cause of the mixed results is presented.

Bosworth, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Flight Test Results from the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Project with Adaptation to a Simulated Stabilator Failure

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be more resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane and subjected to an inflight simulation of a failed (frozen) (unmovable) stabilator. Formation flight handling qualities evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to decouple the roll and pitch response and reestablish good onboard model tracking. Flight evaluation with the simulated stabilator failure and adaptation engaged showed that there was generally improvement in the pitch response; however, a tendency for roll pilot-induced oscillation was experienced. A detailed discussion of the cause of the mixed results is presented.

Bosworth, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Flight Test Results from the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Project with Adaptation to a Simulated Stabilator Failure

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be more resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane and subjected to an inflight simulation of a failed (frozen) (unmovable) stabilator. Formation flight handling qualities evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to decouple the roll and pitch response and reestablish good onboard model tracking. Flight evaluation with the simulated stabilator failure and adaptation engaged showed that there was generally improvement in the pitch response; however, a tendency for roll pilot-induced oscillation was experienced. A detailed discussion of the cause of the mixed results is presented.

Bosworth, John T.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

VEG-05 Tomato Crop Testing on the International Space Station

Production of fresh, nutritious, and tasty produce for astronauts during spaceflight may provide health-promoting, bioavailable nutrients, enhance the dietary experience, and reduce menu fatigue as we move into longer-duration missions. Growing and caring for plants may also reduce the psychological stresses associated with spaceflight and enhance connection to Earth. A diversity of crops will be required to provide nutrition, variety, and resiliency, however requirements for consistent growth under spaceflight environmental conditions remain unclear. VEG-05 is part of a series of experiments with pick-and-eat salad crops to better define best practices for crop production in space. VEG-05 and predecessor experiments VEG-04A and VEG-04B, grew salad crops in the Veggie vegetable production facilities on the International Space Station using different lighting treatments. In VEG-05 we grew ‘Red Robin’ dwarf cherry tomatoes under two different red: blue lighting spectra. Light can impact the growth habit, yield, nutritional composition, microbial levels, and even flavor attributes within crops, and our goal was to assess these characteristics in ‘Red Robin’ tomatoes during VEG-05. Considerable pre-flight verification testing was performed prior to launch in Nov. 2022. Prior to the flight and ground experiments, lighting in both Veggie units on ISS was measured and lights were standardized between flight and ground hardware. VEG-05 flight operations ran between December 2022 and March 2023, with a ground control initially 48 hours delayed. Due to environmental challenges of very low humidity during the first week of the experiment, seed germination was low for both flight and ground plants. The flight experiment ultimately had 4 - 5 plants per treatment out of the planned 6 plants, but the initial ground control had only three plants in one treatment and none in the other, so this ground control was restarted at the beginning of Feb. 2023 and ran through May, with successful growth of all 12 plants. Both flight and ground control ran 100 days, with harvests of fruit at day 83, day 90, and day 100. Flight plants had uneven growth, and following the early drying events, excess water was frequently observed, which led to a variety of plant stress responses including uneven plant growth, excess adventitious root formation, flower and fruit abortion, and visible microbial growth. In total, from the five surviving red-rich lighted plants, only 5 ripe fruit were produced, and from the four surviving blue-rich lighted plants, 10 fruit were produced with only 6 of these ripe by day 100. Because of the small fruit number and the unsatisfactory growth, crew members were not allowed to consume the tomatoes, and all fruit, as well as large branches with leaves, samples of the adventitious roots, two plant rooting pillows from each treatment, microbial sampling swabs, and some water samples were returned for analysis. Because of the small sample sizes and factors affecting growth on the ISS, objectives of assessing light quality effect (red: blue light treatments) will not be achieved. Revised objectives of this study include to compare stressed flight plants with normal ground plants to determine the impact of plant overwatering stress in space on food safety and the plant microbial community, to determine nutrient content changes in fruit and leaves from stressed plants, and to evaluate stress metabolism changes in returned tissue by transcriptomic analysis. Postflight analysis is underway with the following analyses being conducted: A. culturable microbiology and food safety as well as molecular microbial community analysis of 1. ripe fruit, 2. leaves, stems, and adventitious roots, 3. pillow components (roots, wicks, and substrates), 4. swabs, and 5. water samples from root mats before and after growth. B. transcriptomics of leaf tissue and adventitious roots, and C. elemental analysis of leaf tissue. If sufficient tissue remains elemental analyses will also be conducted on fruit. While not generating the desired information on spaceflight growth responses of healthy crops, our team is hopeful that these analyses will shed light on tomato responses to stress in this environment as plant overwatering stress is a mission-relevant condition that could occur in future space crop growth systems. This research was co-funded by the Human Research Program and Space Biology (MTL#1075) in the ILSRA 2015 NRA call.

Gioia D. Massa↗

NASA NTRS2016

Ni-Ti Alloys for Tribological Applications: The Effects of Serendipity on Research and Development

Novel superelastic materials based upon Nickel-Titanium (NiTi) alloys are an emerging technology that almost escaped recognition. Though steel is the dominant material of choice for mechanical components (bearings and gears) it has intrinsic limitations related to corrosion and plastic deformation. In 2004, at the request of a small manufacturing firm, Nitinol 60 was assessed as an alternative to bearing steel. Early investigations showed it to be hard and impervious to aqueous corrosion but its tribological properties were not fully explored. Conventional wisdom in the field of tribology suggests that alloys rich in titanium are poor candidate bearing materials but NiTi, an intermetallic, demonstrates that such thinking can be and often is, wrong. Though early stage tests reveal acceptable friction and wear behavior, extensive materials engineering and processing development was essential in producing the precision microstructures needed for long-life bearings and gears. In the course of exploring this new material system other game-changing and unexpected properties, such as superelastic resilience, were observed. Today, the aerospace community is exploiting the unique characteristics of the NiTi alloy materials to solve problems on earth, underwater and in space. A fortunate decision to acknowledge a single industrial request turned out to be the key to an entirely new technology.

engineering↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

J Lemery↗

NASA NTRS2024

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

Medical Operations↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cyber-Threat Assessment for the Air Traffic Management System: A Network Controls Approach

Air transportation networks are being disrupted with increasing frequency by failures in their cyber- (computing, communication, control) systems. Whether these cyber- failures arise due to deliberate attacks or incidental errors, they can have far-reaching impact on the performance of the air traffic control and management systems. For instance, a computer failure in the Washington DC Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZDC) on August 15, 2015, caused nearly complete closure of the Centers airspace for several hours. This closure had a propagative impact across the United States National Airspace System, causing changed congestion patterns and requiring placement of a suite of traffic management initiatives to address the capacity reduction and congestion. A snapshot of traffic on that day clearly shows the closure of the ZDC airspace and the resulting congestion at its boundary, which required augmented traffic management at multiple locations. Cyber- events also have important ramifications for private stakeholders, particularly the airlines. During the last few months, computer-system issues have caused several airlines fleets to be grounded for significant periods of time: these include United Airlines (twice), LOT Polish Airlines, and American Airlines. Delays and regional stoppages due to cyber- events are even more common, and may have myriad causes (e.g., failure of the Department of Homeland Security systems needed for security check of passengers, see [3]). The growing frequency of cyber- disruptions in the air transportation system reflects a much broader trend in the modern society: cyber- failures and threats are becoming increasingly pervasive, varied, and impactful. In consequence, an intense effort is underway to develop secure and resilient cyber- systems that can protect against, detect, and remove threats, see e.g. and its many citations. The outcomes of this wide effort on cyber- security are applicable to the air transportation infrastructure, and indeed security solutions are being implemented in the current system. While these security solutions are important, they only provide a piecemeal solution. Particular computers or communication channels are protected from particular attacks, without a holistic view of the air transportation infrastructure. On the other hand, the above-listed incidents highlight that a holistic approach is needed, for several reasons. First, the air transportation infrastructure is a large scale cyber-physical system with multiple stakeholders and diverse legacy assets. It is impractical to protect every cyber- asset from known and unknown disruptions, and instead a strategic view of security is needed. Second, disruptions to the cyber- system can incur complex propagative impacts across the air transportation network, including its physical and human assets. Also, these implications of cyber- events are exacerbated or modulated by other disruptions and operational specifics, e.g. severe weather, operator fatigue or error, etc. These characteristics motivate a holistic and strategic perspective on protecting the air transportation infrastructure from cyber- events. The analysis of cyber- threats to the air traffic system is also inextricably tied to the integration of new autonomy into the airspace. The replacement of human operators with cyber functions leaves the network open to new cyber threats, which must be modeled and managed. Paradoxically, the mitigation of cyber events in the airspace will also likely require additional autonomy, given the fast time scale and myriad pathways of cyber-attacks which must be managed. The assessment of new vulnerabilities upon integration of new autonomy is also a key motivation for a holistic perspective on cyber threats.

Complex Networks↗

NASA NTRS2016

Climate Change Adaptation Activities at the NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center, FL., USA

In 2010, the Office of Strategic Infrastructure and Earth Sciences established the Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) program to integrate climate change forecasts and knowledge into sustainable management of infrastructure and operations needed for the NASA mission. NASA operates 10 field centers valued at $32 billion dollars, occupies 191,000 acres and employs 58,000 people. CASI climate change and sea-level rise forecasts focus on the 2050 and 2080 time periods. At the 140,000 acre Kennedy Space Center (KSC) data are used to simulate impacts on infrastructure, operations, and unique natural resources. KSC launch and processing facilities represent a valued national asset located in an area with high biodiversity including 33 species of special management concern. Numerical and advanced Bayesian and Monte Carlo statistical modeling is being conducted using LiDAR digital elevation models coupled with relevant GIS layers to assess potential future conditions. Results are provided to the Environmental Management Branch, Master Planning, Construction of Facilities, Engineering Construction Innovation Committee and our regional partners to support Spaceport development, management, and adaptation planning and design. Potential impacts to natural resources include conversion of 50% of the Center to open water, elevation of the surficial aquifer, alterations of rainfall and evapotranspiration patterns, conversion of salt marsh to mangrove forest, reductions in distribution and extent of upland habitats, overwash of the barrier island dune system, increases in heat stress days, and releases of chemicals from legacy contamination sites. CASI has proven successful in bringing climate change planning to KSC including recognition of the need to increase resiliency and development of a green managed shoreline retreat approach to maintain coastal ecosystem services while maximizing life expectancy of Center launch and payload processing resources.

plant communities↗

NASA NTRS2024

The Economics of Farming Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Under Possible Effects of Climate Change

This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to predict potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis.

agricultural expansion↗