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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

A Method of Compliance for Achieving Target Collision Risk in UTM Operations

This work proposes a method of compliance to ensure that the collision risks among small unmanned aircraft systems meet the target level of safety. This method presents what is needed for a strategic conflict detection service to achieve the target level of safety when conflict between operational intents are not permitted in nominal situations. A volume-based collision risk model is first developed to calculate the UA-to-UA collision risk given any two operational intent volumes. With this collision risk model, a test strategy is then proposed to assess if a strategic conflict detection service can reduce the collision risk and meet the target level of safety. The method also specifies operational data that are required to be collected to verify if requirements on conformance are being met. Additionally, two new requirements are identified and proposed by this method beyond the current standard for strategic conflict detection. In the sensitivity analysis, three main factors contributing to the collision risk are investigated. The analysis shows that buffers should be considered in a strategic conflict detection service when deconflicting operational intents. The results also reveal that the selection of test cases plays an important role in evaluating the strategic conflict detection service, and they should be representative and sufficiently complex in evaluation tests.

Collision Risk↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Method of Compliance for Achieving Target Collision Risk in UTM Operations

This work proposes a method of compliance to ensure that the collision risks among small unmanned aircraft systems meet the target level of safety. This method presents what is needed for a strategic conflict detection service to achieve the target level of safety when conflict between operational intents are not permitted in nominal situations. A volume-based collision risk model is first developed to calculate the UA-to-UA collision risk given any two operational intent volumes. With this collision risk model, a test strategy is then proposed to assess if a strategic conflict detection service can reduce the collision risk and meet the target level of safety. The method also specifies operational data that are required to be collected to verify if requirements on conformance are being met. Additionally, two new requirements are identified and proposed by this method beyond the current standard for strategic conflict detection. In the sensitivity analysis, three main factors contributing to the collision risk are investigated. The analysis shows that buffers should be considered in a strategic conflict detection service when deconflicting operational intents. The results also reveal that the selection of test cases plays an important role in evaluating the strategic conflict detection service, and they should be representative and sufficiently complex in evaluation tests.

UTM, Method of Compliance, collision risk↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Method of Compliance for Achieving Target Collision Risk in UTM Operations

This work proposes a method of compliance to ensure that the collision risks among small unmanned aircraft systems meet the target level of safety. This method presents what is needed for a strategic conflict detection service to achieve the target level of safety when conflict between operational intents are not permitted in nominal situations. A volume-based collision risk model is first developed to calculate the UA-to-UA collision risk given any two operational intent volumes. With this collision risk model, a test strategy is then proposed to assess if a strategic conflict detection service can reduce the collision risk and meet the target level of safety. The method also specifies operational data that are required to be collected to verify if requirements on conformance are being met. Additionally, two new requirements are identified and proposed by this method beyond the current standard for strategic conflict detection. In the sensitivity analysis, three main factors contributing to the collision risk are investigated. The analysis shows that buffers should be considered in a strategic conflict detection service when deconflicting operational intents. The results also reveal that the selection of test cases plays an important role in evaluating the strategic conflict detection service, and they should be representative and sufficiently complex in evaluation tests.

UTM↗
NASA NTRS2008

Modeling the Risk of Fire/Explosion Due to Oxidizer/Fuel Leaks in the Ares I Interstage

A significant flight hazard associated with liquid propellants, such as those used in the upper stage of NASA's new Ares I launch vehicle, is the possibility of leakage of hazardous fluids resulting in a catastrophic fire/explosion. The enclosed and vented interstage of the Ares I contains numerous oxidizer and fuel supply lines as well as ignition sources. The potential for fire/explosion due to leaks during ascent depends on the relative concentrations of hazardous and inert fluids within the interstage along with other variables such as pressure, temperature, leak rates, and fluid outgasing rates. This analysis improves on previous NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) estimates of the probability of deflagration, in which many of the variables pertinent to the problem were not explicitly modeled as a function of time. This paper presents the modeling methodology developed to analyze these risks.

Ring, Robert W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving the Fidelity of Capability & Resource Weighting in A Probalistic Risk Assessment Model for Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to provide an evidence-based, data-driven estimate of how medical system capabilities affect mission outcomes. IMPACT maps condition incidence to available resources thereby facilitating the calculation of outcome metrics that allow the estimation of mission medical risk. Conditions can be nominally categorized as either treated or untreated depending on the availability of necessary diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities. This categorization enables IMPACT to estimate the effect of various medical system configurations on mission outcomes such as crew mortality, disability, crew member down-time, return to duty/recovery, and need for evacuation. IMPACT currently employs an equal weighting, “partial credit” approach to define treatment in which each of the capabilities associated with a given condition contributes an equal amount to management of the condition. This feature enables IMPACT to report values in between “fully untreated” and “fully treated” based on the proportion of capabilities available within the model. However, as is normal in medical/clinical practice, not all individual capabilities contribute equally to medical care. For example, the ability to provide intramuscular epinephrine during an anaphylactic episode contributes more likelihood of overall management success than does the administration of oral diphenhydramine. We hypothesize that weighting the relative contribution of each capability to each specific condition will improve outcome prediction and therefore will better provide mission planners with more nuanced and accurate options when designing space medical systems. METHODS Using a five-point Fibonacci scaling sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8) subject matter experts from NASA’s Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) element assigned relative contribution weighting values to each identified capability within IMPACT. Since the relative importance of each capability varies depending on the specific condition, the resulting “partial” weighting was completed for more than 1,600 individual weighting assignments for 666 capabilities across 121 conditions. Each assignment required three-physician concurrence based on the overall importance of the capability to the diagnosis and management of the condition being considered and the difficulty with which it could be improvised by the crew. Once complete, 100,000 IMPACT simulations were run for a 6-month Lunar mission with a 30-day surface stay to evaluate the effect of this modification of the model. RESULTS Partial weighting significantly decreased predicted task time loss (TTL), evacuation, and loss of crew life without causing significant changes to the recommended medical system design. CONCLUSIONS The paucity of real-world referent data to support long-duration space missions of this type limits the ability to judge one predictive analytics method as superior to another. However, since the proposed method significantly reduces and optimizes outcome risks—without changing the medical system design—incorporating a partial weighting methodology is likely to provide a more accurate and operationally-relevant representation of medical risk without compromising IMPACTs ability to inform overarching medical system requirements.

Steller JG↗
NASA NTRS2006

Methodology for evaluating modular assembly of large space platforms

This paper presents a methodology for analytically comparing approaches to modular assembly of large space platforms. the methodology combines a physical model of the modules, a life-cycle cost model, and a risk model to capture influential trade-offs.

in-space construction↗
NASA NTRS2007

NASA Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

This viewgraph document reviews the radiation environment that is a significant potential hazard to NASA's goals for space exploration, of living and working in space. NASA has initiated a Peer reviewed research program that is charged with arriving at an understanding of the space radiation problem. To this end NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) was constructed to simulate the harsh cosmic and solar radiation found in space. Another piece of the work was to develop a risk modeling tool that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting risk of carcinogenesis, central nervous system damage, degenerative tissue disease, and acute radiation effects acute radiation effects.

Cucinotta, Francis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Future of Integrated Performance Modeling in the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment Project

The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault-tree probabilistic techniques to classify risks in the space environment by taking advantage of the inherent knowledge of complex spaceflight system design and testing to quantify failure risk. In harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of ‘How do we balance health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on long duration space missions?’ remains a deeply challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Human Research Program’s Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) was a significant step forward in efforts to robustly quantify the risk to crew health for exploration missions. However, there remains a significant gap in the ability to comprehensively assess and characterize risk across the disparate functionalities and capabilities which comprise the Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. The Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) project seeks to characterize CHP risks by expanding beyond the foundation established by its PRA predecessors like IMM and MEDPRAT, that simulate medical risk metrics like loss of crew life and evacuations. One of the new risk measures in the CHP-PRA system is embodied in our Performance Risk Model (PRisM). PRisM provides a novel way of assessing crew performance on mission tasks, using a generalized framework which relates back to NASA-STD-3001. This approach allows PRisM to capture and integrate data from a variety of different domains into a single, unified, reproducible representation of astronaut performance. In this presentation, we discuss the motivation for the CHP-PRA work and give a high level overview of the goals of the project, outline the forward work for PRisM, and discuss collaboration opportunities for the community who might explore if their domain knowledge and data could be represented, integrated, and quantified with these tools, whose outcomes are metrics useful for supporting operational mission planning and decision making.

Lauren McIntyre↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Technical Reference Manual (V.6.0)

The HyRAM+ software is an open-source toolkit that provides publicly available models and default input values to enable straightforward and consistent safety assessments for hydrogen and other alternative fuel systems, such as natural gas and propane. The HyRAM+ quantitative risk assessment calculation incorporates annual likelihood of leaks or failures for both compressed gaseous and liquefied flammable fuels, as well as probabilistic models for the effects of heat flux and overpressure. HyRAM

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Extreme-Value Approach to Anomaly Vulnerability Identification

The objective of this paper is to present a method for importance analysis in parametric probabilistic modeling where the result of interest is the identification of potential engineering vulnerabilities associated with postulated anomalies in system behavior. In the context of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), under which this method has been developed, these vulnerabilities, designated as anomaly vulnerabilities, are conditions that produce high risk in the presence of anomalous system behavior. The method defines a parameter-specific Parameter Vulnerability Importance measure (PVI), which identifies anomaly risk-model parameter values that indicate the potential presence of anomaly vulnerabilities, and allows them to be prioritized for further investigation. This entails analyzing each uncertain risk-model parameter over its credible range of values to determine where it produces the maximum risk. A parameter that produces high system risk for a particular range of values suggests that the system is vulnerable to the modeled anomalous conditions, if indeed the true parameter value lies in that range. Thus, PVI analysis provides a means of identifying and prioritizing anomaly-related engineering issues that at the very least warrant improved understanding to reduce uncertainty, such that true vulnerabilities may be identified and proper corrective actions taken.

Everett, Chris↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Systems Modeling Approach for Risk Management of Command File Errors

The main cause of commanding errors is often (but not always) due to procedures. Either lack of maturity in the processes, incompleteness of requirements or lack of compliance to these procedures. Other causes of commanding errors include lack of understanding of system states, inadequate communication, and making hasty changes in standard procedures in response to an unexpected event. In general, it's important to look at the big picture prior to making corrective actions. In the case of errors traced back to procedures, considering the reliability of the process as a metric during its' design may help to reduce risk. This metric is obtained by using data from Nuclear Industry regarding human reliability. A structured method for the collection of anomaly data will help the operator think systematically about the anomaly and facilitate risk management. Formal models can be used for risk based design and risk management. A generic set of models can be customized for a broad range of missions.

probabilistic risk↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment for Combined Spaceflight Hazards: Evaluating the Impact of Short Sleep Durations on Space Crew Cardiovascular Health

Astronauts embarking on long-duration missions will be exposed to multiple spaceflight hazards including radiation, isolation and confinement, distance from Earth, hostile closed environments, and altered gravity. These hazards pose health risks to the crew in-mission and postflight, including risks to cardiovascular health. For radiation, quantitative risk models have been developed that are based on large-scale epidemiological evidence from exposed terrestrial populations, which are extrapolated to account for the difference in radiological effectiveness between ground-based and in-flight exposures. •Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are multifactorial, therefore multiple risk factors can influence disease risk estimates. •Astronauts with spaceflight experience is a very small population. •To overcome limitations of cohort, population data from presumed equivalent stressors on Earth can be used to quantitatively assess possible risks. •Sleep disruption and short sleep duration are known consequences of spaceflight and are also established risk factors for cardiovascular disease on earth (Pateletal.,2020). •Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), Myocardial Infarction (MI), and stroke are negative health effects due to short sleep durations and sleep disruptions (Yinetal.,2017); (Cappuccio et al., 2010). •A combined CVD risk model including spaceflight stressor such as sleep, stress, radiation, etc.) will provide more precise estimate of risks.

Spaceflight Hazards↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System-Level Model-Based Risk Determination for Lunar Mission Design

Recent work has shown that human activities on the lunar surface have the potential to impact not only surface infrastructure, but also have long-term repercussions to lunar orbit infrastructure that is directly proportional to the frequency and scale of landings and impacts. Those assets that are present within the lunar environment, whether on the surface or in orbit, are thus not entirely isolated from one another but contribute to the overall induced environment. With that in mind, this project endeavors to model that system using Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE), employing previously developed mathematical methodology. The product from this work is a flexible tool with which a user may model any number of assets or events and determine how the dust and debris generated by those events effects mission operations and overall projected.

Matthew Wittal↗