Streamlined development for reliable missions
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safety and mission assurance↗
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Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide
Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. In this work, we document events of sudden and unexpected elevated tree mortality following heat and drought events in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk of exposure. These events underscore the fact that climate change may affect forests with unexpected force in the future. We use the events as examples to highlight current difficulties and challenges for realistically predicting such tree mortality events and the uncertainties about future forest condition. Advances in remote sensing technology and greater availably of high-resolution data, from both field assessments and satellites, are needed to improve both understanding and prediction of forest responses to future climate change.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Risk Assessment and Control through Countermeasure System Iplementation for Long-term Crew Exposure to Microgravity
Experience with the International Space Station (ISS) program demonstrates the degree to which engineering design and operational solutions must protect crewmembers from health risks due to long-term exposure to the microgravity environment. Risks to safety and health due to degradation in the microgravity environment include crew inability to complete emergency or nominal activities, increased risk of injury, and inability to complete safe return to the ground due to reduced strength or embrittled bones. These risks without controls slowly increase in probability for the length of the mission and become more significant for increasing mission durations. Countermeasures to microgravity include hardware systems that place a crewmember s body under elevated stress to produce an effect similar to daily exposure to gravity. The ISS countermeasure system is predominately composed of customized exercise machines. Historical treatment of microgravity countermeasure systems as medical research experiments unintentionally reduced the foreseen importance and therefore the capability of the systems to function in a long-term operational role. Long-term hazardous effects and steadily increasing operational risks due to non-functional countermeasure equipment require a more rigorous design approach and incorporation of redundancy into seemingly non- mission-critical hardware systems. Variations in the rate of health degradation and responsiveness to countermeasures among the crew population drastically increase the challenge for design requirements development and verification of the appropriate risk control strategy. The long-term nature of the hazards and severe limits on logistical re-supply mass, volume and frequency complicates assessment of hardware availability and verification of an adequate maintenance and sparing plan. Design achievement of medically defined performance requirements by microgravity countermeasure systems and incorporation of adequate failure tolerance significantly reduces these risks. Future implementation of on-site monitoring hardware for critical health parameters such as bone mineral density would allow greater responsiveness, efficiency, and optimized design of the countermeasures system.
Gernand, Jeremy M.↗
Logistic Risk Model for the Unique Effects of Inherent Aerobic Capacity on (+)G(sub z) Tolerance Before and After Simulated Weightlessness
Small sample size (n less than 1O) and inappropriate analysis of multivariate data have hindered previous attempts to describe which physiologic and demographic variables are most important in determining how long humans can tolerate acceleration. Data from previous centrifuge studies conducted at NASA/Ames Research Center, utilizing a 7-14 d bed rest protocol to simulate weightlessness, were included in the current investigation. After review, data on 25 women and 22 men were available for analysis. Study variables included gender, age, weight, height, percent body fat, resting heart rate, mean arterial pressure, Vo(sub 2)max and plasma volume. Since the dependent variable was time to greyout (failure), two contemporary biostatistical modeling procedures (proportional hazard and logistic discriminant function) were used to estimate risk, given a particular subject's profile. After adjusting for pro-bed-rest tolerance time, none of the profile variables remained in the risk equation for post-bed-rest tolerance greyout. However, prior to bed rest, risk of greyout could be predicted with 91% accuracy. All of the profile variables except weight, MAP, and those related to inherent aerobic capacity (Vo(sub 2)max, percent body fat, resting heart rate) entered the risk equation for pro-bed-rest greyout. A cross-validation using 24 new subjects indicated a very stable model for risk prediction, accurate within 5% of the original equation. The result for the inherent fitness variables is significant in that a consensus as to whether an increased aerobic capacity is beneficial or detrimental has not been satisfactorily established. We conclude that tolerance to +Gz acceleration before and after simulated weightlessness is independent of inherent aerobic fitness.
Ludwig, David A.↗
Development of Stable Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells for Low-Cost Hydrogen Production
The project objective was to demonstrate a solid oxide cell-based steam electrolysis stack that exhibits robustness, reliability, endurance, hydrogen purity, and produces hydrogen at elevated pressure of 2 to 3 bar. Innovative materials and processing methods were evaluated to improve degradation characteristics. Performance improvement focused on nearly all layers involved in the cell and stack assembly. Primary attention was paid to zirconia-ceria interface resistance control via sintering optimization and decrease in degradation from the oxygen electrode by evaluating low strontium (Sr) or Sr-free composition for both the oxygen electrode and current collection layer. Stack robustness was addressed by validating redox tolerance of fuel electrode, confirming capability of cells to survive repeated thermal cycles, studying the effect of pressure on performance and degradation, evaluating the effect of contamination on fuel and oxygen electrode performance and degradation, and identifying mitigation strategies to improve performance. The characterization included evaluation of electrochemical performance and stability followed by microstructural analysis. At the cell level, performance and stability improvements were achieved by incorporating a Sr-free oxygen electrode and a denser oxygen electrode barrier layer. At the stack level, pressurized operation reduces demand on first stage compression, the redox tolerant fuel electrode mitigates risk from service interruptions, and improvements to interconnect coating alleviate chromium (Cr) contamination effects. The denser barrier layer was achieved by adding a sintering aid to the samaria-doped ceria (SDC) composition that reduced sintering temperature by 150 °C. The resulting density was on par with the baseline SDC barrier layer density and the lower sintering temperature resulted in less resistive phase formation during sintering. Button cell tests did not demonstrate a change in performance when exposed to silicon (Si) or manganese (Mn) impurities to the fuel electrode and Cr impurity to the oxygen electrode. More detailed study however is warranted. The project addressed SOEC performance and stability at the cell and stack levels through a systematic approach to known sources of degradation that were combined and tested in three stack tests using an electrolyte supported cell design to allow for evaluation of a variety of fuel and oxygen electrode compositions. STK-82 and STK-83 had identical compositions. STK-100 incorporated the best materials and processing variables developed under this and concurrent projects, and was tested at elevated pressure in steam electrolysis. • STK-82 recovered performance after redox and thermal cycling, demonstrating the robustness of the stack and seals. It exhibited stable performance in testing for 500 hours in SOEC mode, followed by 300 hours of cycling between SOEC and SOFC tests. Degradation during SOEC operation was 1.8 %/ 1,000 hours. • STK-83 generated hydrogen at >80% steam conversion, and oxygen above 98.5 % purity during pressurized operation. Both hydrogen and oxygen were generated at 3 barg pressure without the use of a pressure vessel. In addition to balanced pressure, electrolysis operation at 1 bar differential pressure across anode and cathode was also demonstrated to substantial the robustness of the cell and seal. • STK-100 measured at initial ambient pressure conditions showed an area specific resistance of 1.1 ohm-cm 2 , and STK-83 had 1.3 ohm-cm 2 .
08 HYDROGEN↗
Romans to Mars
The key role played by technology advancement with respect to the anticipated era of discovery and exploration (in space) is illustrated: how bold new initiatives may or may not be enabled. A truly enabling technology not only renders the proposed missions technically feasible, but also makes them viable economically; that is, low enough in cost (relative to the economy supporting them) that urgent national need is not required for justification, low enough in cost that high risk can be programmatically tolerated. A fictional parallel is drawn to the Roman Empire of the second century A.D., shown to have possessed by that time the necessary knowledge, motivation, means, and technical capability of mounting, through the use of innovative mission planning, an initiative similar to Columbus' voyage. They failed to do so because they lacked the advanced technology necessary to make it an acceptable proposition economically. Speculation, based on the historical perspective, is made on the outcome of contemporary plans for future exploration showing how they will be subjected to the same historical forces, within limits imposed by the state of technology development, that shaped the timing of that previous era of discovery and exploration.
Bents, D. J.↗
The lessons of Varsovian's reconnaissance
The role played by advanced technology is illustrated with respect to the anticipated era of discovery and exploration (in space): how bold new exploration initiatives may or may not be enabled. Enabling technology makes the mission feasible. To be truly enabling, however, the technology must not only render the proposed mission technically feasible, but also make it viable economically; that is, low enough in cost (relative to the economy supporting it) that urgent national need is not required for justification, low enough that risks can be programmatically tolerated. An allegorical parallel is drawn to the Roman Empire of the second century AD, shown to have possessed by that time the necessary knowledge, motivation, means, and technical capability of mounting, through the use of innovative mission planning, an initiative similar to Columbus' voyage. They failed to do so; not because they lacked the vision, but because their technology was not advanced enough to make it an acceptable proposition economically. Speculation, based on the historical perspective, is made on the outcome of contemporary plans for future exploration showing how they will be subjected to the same historical forces, within limits imposed by the state of technology development, that shaped the timing of that previous era of discovery and exploration.
Bents, D. J.↗
Impact damage tolerance of thin wall composite struts
An experimental investigation was made to study the impact damage tolerance of thin wall composite struts made of both brittle epoxy and toughened epoxy based composite materials. Damage parameters such as barely visible surface damage and internal damage represented by the ultrasonic C-scan, and residual compressive strengths were evaluated against impact energy for two impactor sizes. From both a damage resistance (internal damage vs. impact energy) and a damage tolerance (residual compressive strength vs. internal damage) point of view, the toughened IM7/977-2 struts exhibited better performance than the brittle epoxy based T50/934 struts. This is attributed to the toughening mechanism in 977-2 which impedes delamination initiation from impact, and delamination growth and subsequent buckling under a compression loading. At barely visible damage thresholds, regardless of the impactor sizes, a maximum strength reduction of 45-55 percent was observed for the T50/934 struts, and approximately 10 percent for IM7/977-2 struts. This is of great interest for developing a damage tolerance design approach and risk assessment methodology in which the design allowable would be defined by the residual strength at the threshold of barely visible damage.
Chen, G.-S.↗
Mission management aircraft operations manual
This manual prescribes the NASA mission management aircraft program and provides policies and criteria for the safe and economical operation, maintenance, and inspection of NASA mission management aircraft. The operation of NASA mission management aircraft is based on the concept that safety has the highest priority. Operations involving unwarranted risks will not be tolerated. NASA mission management aircraft will be designated by the Associate Administrator for Management Systems and Facilities. NASA mission management aircraft are public aircraft as defined by the Federal Aviation Act of 1958. Maintenance standards, as a minimum, will meet those required for retention of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) airworthiness certification. Federal Aviation Regulation Part 91, Subparts A and B, will apply except when requirements of this manual are more restrictive.
Source record↗
AXAF-I ghost ray study: On orbit case
The problem of baffles for control of singly reflected (and nonreflected) ghost rays is considered. The theory of baffle design for Wolter Type I grazing incidence optics is reviewed, and a set of sample baffle parameters is obtained subject to the assumptions of nominal mirror figures and perfect manufacture and alignment of baffles. It is found that baffles forward of the optics (in the thermal precollimator) and between the mirror elements (at the CAP) are sufficient to allow the simultaneous ghost image and vignetting requirements to be satisfied for HRMA shells P1H1, P3H3, and P4H4. However, these baffles are not sufficient for the innermost shell P6H6; at best the requirements are slightly violated and there is no margin for tolerances. The addition of a baffle interior to the P6 space at an axial station about one third of the way forward from the aft end of the paraboloid will allow the ghost ray and vignetting requirements to be met. The minimum ghost ray angles and the vignetting angles are sensitive functions of the baffle positions and radii; tolerances of considerably better than 1 mm will be required. The sensitivities are coupled and correlated; further investigations should be undertaken in order to obtain baffle parameters which, combined with likely achievable tolerances, will minimize the risk of the vignetting/ghost ray requirements not being met. The lightweight carbon-epoxy composite used for thermal baffles has insufficient X-ray opacity to be a suitable material for construction of the controlling X-ray baffles; further study is needed to determine an appropriate material and to investigate its thermal and mechanical implications.
Gaetz, T. J.↗
Laser Peening Effects on Friction Stir Welding
The laser peening process can result in considerable improvement to crack initiation, propagation, and mechanical properties in FSW which equates to longer hardware service life Processed hardware safety is improved by producing higher failure tolerant hardware, and reducing risk. Lowering hardware maintenance cost produces longer hardware service life, and lower hardware down time. Application of this proposed technology will result in substantial benefits and savings throughout the life of the treated components
Hatameleh, Omar↗
Measurement Assurance for End-Item Users
The goal of a Quality Management System (QMS) as specified in ISO 9001 and AS9100 is to assure the end product meets specifications and customer requirements. Measuring devices, often called measuring and test equipments (MTE), provide the evidence of product conformity to the prescribed requirements. Therefore the processes which employ MTE can become a weak link to the overall QMS if proper attention is not given to development and execution of these processes. Traditionally, calibration of MTE is given more focus in industry standards and process control efforts than the equally important proper usage of the same equipment. It is a common complaint of calibration laboratory personnel that MTE users are only interested in "a sticker." If the QMS requires the MTE "to demonstrate conformity of the product," then the quality of the measurement process must be adequate for the task. This leads to an ad hoc definition; measurement assurance is a discipline that assures that all processes, activities, environments, standards, and procedures involved in making a measurement produce a result that can be rigorously evaluated for validity and accuracy. To evaluate that the existing measurement processes are providing an adequate level of quality to support the decisions based upon this measurement data, an understanding of measurement assurance basics is essential. This topic is complimentary to the calibration standard, ANSI/NCSL Z540.3-2006, which targets the calibration of MTE at the organizational level. This paper will discuss general measurement assurance when MTE is used to provide evidence of product conformity, therefore the target audience of this paper is end item users of MTE. A central focus of the paper will be the verification of tolerances and the associated risks, so calibration professionals may find the paper useful in communication with their customers, MTE users.
Mimbs, Scott M.↗
Software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance
Strategies and tools for the testing, risk assessment and risk control of dependable software-based systems were developed. Part of this project consists of studies to enable the transfer of technology to industry, for example the risk management techniques for safety-concious systems. Theoretical investigations of Boolean and Relational Operator (BRO) testing strategy were conducted for condition-based testing. The Basic Graph Generation and Analysis tool (BGG) was extended to fully incorporate several variants of the BRO metric. Single- and multi-phase risk, coverage and time-based models are being developed to provide additional theoretical and empirical basis for estimation of the reliability and availability of large, highly dependable software. A model for software process and risk management was developed. The use of cause-effect graphing for software specification and validation was investigated. Lastly, advanced software fault-tolerance models were studied to provide alternatives and improvements in situations where simple software fault-tolerance strategies break down.
Vouk, Mladen A.↗
Simple Acceptance Decisions and Acceptance Risk
Acceptance risk may be estimated using cumulative probability distribution functions applied to populations of measurands and test measurement values. “Simple acceptance” is a decision rule that sets the acceptance range of a test result equal to the tolerance range specification. While acceptance risk is comprised of both consumer risk and producer risk, this paper compares the effects of simple acceptance decision rules and guardbanding decision rules on consumer risk. Consumer risk is also known as the probability of false acceptance. The terms describe the risk of accepting test results as passing when the actual values exceed specification limits. False acceptance is only possible when the true value of a measurand is out of tolerance and the test result indicates that the measurand is within tolerance. Metrologists generally have some information about the test uncertainty regarding a specific acceptance test result. Along with a general lack of knowledge regarding the measurand population parameters, the complicated interplay between risk, dispersion, and central values generally prevents calibration laboratories from fully characterizing acceptance probabilities. Organizations that model the measurand populations can reduce consumer risk by avoiding certification of items whose measurand populations are not well centered. The models in this paper present a recurring trend: guardbanding reduces nonnegligible risks of false acceptance when compared to simple acceptance. However, guardbanding is not the most effective means of acceptance risk mitigation. Systematic characterization of measurand populations can provide the information a calibration laboratory needs to reliably control acceptance risk.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Assessing the Risk of Crew Injury Due to Dynamic Loads During Spaceflight
Spaceflight requires tremendous amounts of energy to achieve Earth orbit and to attain escape velocity for interplanetary missions. Although the majority of the energy is managed in such a way as to limit the accelerations on the crew, several mission phases may result in crew exposure to dynamic loads. In the automotive industry, risk of serious injury can be tolerated because the probability of a crash is remote each time a person enters a vehicle, resulting in a low total risk of injury. For spaceflight, the level of acceptable injury risk must be lower to achieve a low total risk of injury because the dynamic loads are expected on each flight. To mitigate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, the NASA Human Research Program has developed a research plan to inform the knowledge gaps and develop relevant tools for assessing injury risk. The risk of injury due to dynamic loads can be further subdivided into extrinsic and intrinsic risk factors. Extrinsic risk factors include the vehicle dynamic profile, seat and restraint design, and spacesuit design. Human tolerance to loads varies considerably depending on the direction, amplitude, and rise-time of acceleration therefore the orientation of the body to the dynamic vector is critical to determining crew risk of injury. Although a particular vehicle dynamic profile may be safe for a particular design, the seat, restraint, and suit designs can affect the risk of injury due to localized effects. In addition, characteristics intrinsic to the crewmember may also contribute to the risk of injury, such as crewmember sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight, and each astronaut may have a different risk profile because of these factors. The purpose of the research plan is to address any knowledge gaps in the risk factors to mitigate injury risk. Methods for assessing injury risk have been well documented in other analogous industries and include human volunteer testing, human exposure to dynamic environments, post-mortem human subject (PMHS) testing, animal testing, anthropomorphic test devices (ATD), dynamic models of the human, numerical models of ATDs, and numerical models of the human. Each has inherent strengths and limitations. For example, human volunteer testing is advantageous because a population can be selected that is similar to the astronaut corps; however, because of the inherent ethical limitations, only sub-injurious conditions can be tested. PMHSs can be tested in a variety of conditions including injurious levels, but the responses are not completely analogous to living human subjects. In addition, it is exceedingly difficult to select a PMHS population that is similar to the astronaut corps. ATDs are currently widely used in the automotive industry and military because they are highly repeatable and durable. Unfortunately, because they are mechanical models of the human body, the biofidelity of the responses are limited to dynamic conditions used to validate the ATD. Numerical models of the ATD, in addition to the strengths and limitations for ATDs, are easy to use for a variety of designs before a design is fabricated, but also have additional limitations for ATDs, are easy to use for a variety of designs before a design is fabricated, but also have additional uncertainty. Dynamic models are simple and easy to use, but do not account for localized effects of the seat and suit. Finally, numerical models of the human have the potential to have the most advantages; however, the current models are not validated for the conditions expected during spaceflight. To properly assess spaceflight conditions with numerical human models, human data would be needed to optimize the model responses for those conditions. Using the appropriate assessment method with the knowledge gained for each risk factor, an appropriate approach for mitigating the risk of injury due to dynamic loads can be developed ensuring crew safety in future NASA vehicles.
Somers, J. T.↗
Applications and Performance of a Lightning Risk Assessment using Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Data
Lightning is a hazard globally, particularly in lesser-developed countries. Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes are a threat to human safety, motivating a desire to monitor location-based lightning risk to mitigate harm. A lightning risk assessment for human safety was created that uses a combination of probabilistic risk calculation and spatial lightning mapping data to produce a risk magnitude. This risk magnitude evolves with time and changing conditions and is compared to tolerability thresholds in order to evaluate safety. The risk assessment using lightning mapping array (LMA) flash extent density (FED) data was found to perform comparatively (with respect to issuing lightning warnings) to a more standard method of monitoring lightning safety where National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) flashes were monitored within a 5 nautical mile radius of a location of interest. This research investigates the replacement of LMA FED with FED from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) within the risk assessment framework. Using GLM FED would allow for risk to be calculated outside of LMA domains and anywhere within the GLM field of view, including areas outside of the United States (US). A few applications of the risk method with GLM FED are shown and discussed for locations both in and outside of the US. Additionally, the performance of the risk method is compared based on the type of lightning input source (LMA vs GLM). The end goal of this work is to provide forecasters and end users with a tool to help monitor lightning risk in decision support scenarios.
Kelley Murphy↗
Assessing Risk Due to Small Sample Size in Probability of Detection Analysis Using Tolerance Intervals
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Non-destructive Testing↗
Habitability Assessments And Lessons-learned From 3-day And 11-day Enriched Oxygen Hypobaric Chamber Tests At NASA Johnson Space Center
INTRODUCTION: Decompression sickness (DCS) is a risk to the health and performance of astronauts and high-altitude aircrew. Tolerance to flammability, hypoxia, prebreathe duration, and DCS risk varies across different organizations, vehicles, suits, and destinations, necessitating a variety of DCS risk mitigation approaches. Existing models of altitude DCS risk are often insufficient to enable accurate risk-informed decisions during hardware development, mission planning, and flight operations. METHODS: NASA completed outfitting of a dedicated facility at Johnson Space Center to support testing of up to eight human subjects for multiple days in hypobaric and enriched oxygen atmospheres. The primary purpose of the testing capability is validation of DCS risk mitigation protocols for Artemis missions to the Moon; however, it will also support development and validation of a generalizable altitude DCS risk estimation tool. A 3-day and an 11-day prebreathe validation test were completed in 2022, each with 8 human subjects living at 56.5 kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, 66% N2, with 5 simulated EVAs performed on masks at 29.6 kPa (4.3 psi), 85% O2, 15% N2. Facility and organizational lessons-learned and process improvements were recorded during and following the tests, and subjective habitability ratings were recorded daily during the 11-day test. Hypoxia and DCS-related physiological and cognitive outcome measures were recorded during both tests and are reported in companion presentations. RESULTS & DISCUSSION: All subjects completed each of the tests. Primary habitability issues related to mask discomfort during simulated EVAs and poor sleep quality due to thin mattresses. Polybenzimidazole (PBI) clothing was worn by all subjects due to the increased fire risk and may be required for Artemis missions; clothing was found to be acceptable overall with the worst ratings being due to poor fit and inelasticity. Chamber O2 and CO2 sensor inconsistency was observed that did not result in test termination but required post-test follow-up. Forward plans include additional hypobaric testing and integration of existing and future physiological outcome data into an open-source Aerospace Estimation Tool for Hypobaric Exposure Risk (AETHER). NASA is also working to make the testing capability available to commercial companies.
Andrew F J Abercromby↗