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At least 127 records · Page 7

Building Capacity to Use Earth Observations for Wildfire Risk Reduction and Resilience Applications: A Summary of NASA’s DEVELOP 2022 Wildfire Projects

NASA’s DEVELOP Program engages individuals and organizations in 10-week feasibility studies to apply NASA Earth observations (EO) to decision makers’ needs. DEVELOP maintains a balance of projects across nine application areas, one of which is Wildfires. DEVELOP's Wildfires application area supports pre-fire (fuel loading, fire risk), during (active fire detection), and post-fire (fire extent, intensity) monitoring and modeling. In 2022 so far, DEVELOP has conducted six projects with Wildfires as a primary or secondary component across a diverse set of study areas. This presentation introduces DEVELOP, its approach to capacity building, key partnerships, and project results highlighting the capabilities of EO for enhanced decision-making regarding wildfires.

Wildfire↗

Concept of Operations for an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) for Upper E Airspace

The National Airspace System undergoes continuous change including in the Upper Class E airspace involving increasingly complex operations and a widening diversity of vehicles. To secure a safe future system, the National Academies recommended an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) that is extensible to Upper E. Current Air Traffic Management is not cost-effective to scale for future Upper E operations and diversity of vehicles so the Federal Aviation Administration developed an Upper E Traffic Management ConOps to safely integrate the diverse operations and vehicles having different performance characteristics and flight missions without disrupting current operations including space launch and reentry, suborbital flights, supersonic and hypersonic flights, slow moving or stationary unmanned balloons, and long endurance fixed wing vehicles that are slow, stationary, or high speed. IASMS integrates state-of-the-art predictive modeling with reactive and proactive analytics to detect hazards and mitigate risk precursors for Upper E operators. IASMS identifies emergent safety risks exposed by transformation of the NAS with new and increasingly complex operations. Safety intelligence will also expand the data available and offer insight to new approaches for implementing safety improvements to mitigate risk with more seamless “in-time” integration across the policy, risk management, safety assurance, and promotion pillars of SMS.

K Ellis↗

Fe Coated Optical Fiber for Distributed Corrosion Monitoring in Soil and Aqueous Environment

Natural gas pipeline corrosion represents a substantial cost and safety concern during normal operations. Effective monitoring of corrosion is important to detect and mitigate pipeline risks before corrosion-related catastrophic events happen. Here, we describe the use of Fe-coated optical fiber sensors (OFS) for distributed corrosion monitoring where Fe acts as a corrosion proxy. By using an optical backscatterring reflectometer (OBR), corrosion was monitored based on the increase in backscattered intensity amplitude of the light being passed as Fe undergoes corrosion. The Fe-coated OFSs were prepared with a film thickness between 25-225 nm by an electroless plating approach and corroded by a CO2-saturated acidic electrolyte. The corrosion rate was approximately 2.5 mm/yr for Fe with a film thickness of 30 nm and increased with film thickness. Backscattering-based corrosion rates were supported by visible light transmission measurements, which have been previously demonstrated. Additionally, a correlation between the intermittent transmission and residual Fe film thickness during corrosion of Fe was established. Corrosion was measurable out to > 100 m which is a significant improvement over our previous work showing corrosion sensing at < 10 m. The corrosion sensor was also tested in soil at >1 ft depth. Fe-coated OFS was loaded into a Draka cable which provides mechanical support during fiber deployment and installation into either acidified soil, top-soil, or sandy soil.

aqueous environment↗

Fe-Coated Optical Fiber for Distributed Corrosion Monitoring in Soil and Aqueous Environments

Natural gas pipeline corrosion represents a substantial cost and safety concern during normal operations. The effective and real-time monitoring of corrosion is important to detect and mitigate pipeline risks before corrosion-related catastrophic events happen. Here, we describe the use of iron (Fe) coated optical fiber sensors (OFS) for distributed corrosion monitoring where Fe acts as a corrosion proxy. By using an optical backscattering reflectometer (OBR), corrosion was monitored based on the increase in the backscattered intensity amplitude of the light being passed as Fe underwent corrosion. The Fe-coated OFSs were prepared with a film thickness between 25–225 nanometers (nm) by an electroless plating approach and corroded by a carbon dioxide (CO2)-saturated acidic electrolyte. The corrosion rate (CR) was approximately 2.5 millimeters (mm)/year for Fe with a film thickness of 30 nm and increased with film thickness. Backscattering-based CRs were supported by visible light transmission measurements, which have been previously demonstrated. Additionally, a correlation between the intermittent transmission and residual Fe film thickness during the corrosion of Fe was established. The corrosion was measurable out to > 100 meters (m), which is a significant improvement over our previous work, which showed corrosion sensing at < 10 m. The corrosion sensor was also tested in soil at > 1 foot depth.

aqueous environment↗

NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

NASA's Agency-wide.resource for identifying and managing risks associated with changing environmental regulations Goals of the RRAC PC: 1) Proactively. detect, analyze and communicate environmental regulatory risks to NASA Programs and facilities; 2) Communicate with regulators and participate in the mitigation of such risks; and 3) Provide centralized support on emerging regulations to NASA HQ Environmental Management Division. When significant regulatory changes are identified, timely communication is essential. Communication of changing requirements to the regulatory stakeholders - NASA Programs and Facilities. Communication of potential issues to management and, when appropriate, back to the regulating agency.

Scroggins, Sharon↗

Genomic instability, bystander effect, cytoplasmic irradiation and other phenomena that may achieve fame without fortune

The possible risk of induced malignancies in astronauts, as a consequence of the radiation environment in space, is a factor of concern for long term missions. Cancer risk estimates for high doses of low LET radiation are available from the epidemiological studies of the A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks at lower doses cannot be detected in epidemiological studies and must be inferred by extrapolation from the high dose risks. The standard setting bodies, such as the ICRP recommend a linear, no-threshold extrapolation of risks from high to low doses, but this is controversial. A study of mechanisms of carcinogenesis may shed some light on the validity of a linear extrapolation. The multi-step nature of carcinogenesis suggests that the role of radiation may be to induce a mutation leading to a mutator phenotype. High energy Fe ions, such as those encountered in space are highly effective in inducing genomic instability. Experiments involving the single particle microbeam have demonstrated a "bystander effect", ie a biological effect in cells not themselves hit, but in close proximity to those that are, as well as the induction of mutations in cells where only the cytoplasm, and not the nucleus, have been traversed by a charged particle. These recent experiments cast doubt on the validity of a simple linear extrapolation, but the data are so far fragmentary and conflicting. More studies are necessary. While mechanistic studies cannot replace epidemiology as a source of quantitative risk estimates, they may shed some light on the shape of the dose response relationship and therefore on the limitations of a linear extrapolation to low doses.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Laser Solutions for Reducing the Environmental Risks Associated with Orbital Debris and Near Earth Objects

Increasing activity in space is gradually increasing the amount of orbital debris in low earth orbit. As the debris increases, the environmental risk (hypervelocity collisions) associated with spaceflight also increases. Debris larger than 10 cm can typically be detected and tracked sufficiently to allow risk avoidance to be achieved by maneuvering to safe distances. Risk reduction for objects smaller than I cm may be accomplished through shielding. However, intermediate sized debris remains a problem. A convenient risk reduction solution has been identified using modem laser technology. In this approach, a relatively low energy laser facility operating near e equator may significantly reduce the amount of intermediate sized debris (1 - 10 cm) in a few years of operation. A sufficiently intense laser pulse arriving at a debris objects surface will ablate a micro-thin layer of material. As this hot gas rapidly expands away from the object, a small change in momentum is imparted. The momentum change for one pulse is insignificant. However, since the laser can provide 10-1000 pulses per second over several minutes, the cumulative effect is substantive. The object's perigee may be lowered in this manner into atmosphere where it will be vaporized. This same technique may be employed on a larger scale for risk reduction in asteroids, meteoroids, and comets colliding with the Earth at hypervelocities.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗

NASA's Identified Risk of Adverse Outcomes due to Inadequate Human Systems Integration Architecture

The NASA Human System Risk Board (HSRB) is responsible for tracking the evolution of the top ~30 human system risks identified to be associated with human spaceflight. As part of this process, the Board is charged with maintaining a consistent, integrated process to evaluate those risks and developing evidence-based risk posture recommendations. Risks are ranked by likelihood and consequence. Intermediate causal relationships between risk contributing factors and countermeasures that link hazards to outcomes are described using Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs). The DAGs are also useful for identifying common factors and countermeasures across the top 30 risks as well as communicating how astronaut exposure to spaceflight hazards leads to meaningful mission-level health and performance outcomes. One of the top risks tracked by the HSRB is The Risk of Adverse Outcomes Due to Inadequate Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA). This risk captures the possibility that due to decreasing real-time ground support during missions beyond LEO, crew will be unable to adequately respond to unanticipated critical malfunctions or detect safety-critical procedural errors. The HSIA risk is ranked red (high) for Lunar surface and Mars missions due to the probability of Loss of Crew and Loss of Mission consequences. This paper describes the evidence that supports the HSIA risk ranking and presents the central narrative of the HSIA risk DAG-- i.e., anomaly detection, diagnosis, intervention, and task performance. Characterizations of the current state of practice for each of the DAG’s central nodes and the future tools needed for successful anomaly response are provided.

human-systems integration architecture↗

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Novel, Low-Cost, Portable Device for Counterfeit and Noncompliant Refrigerant Detection

The increasing prevalence of counterfeit refrigerants presents significant risks to Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVACR) systems, including compromised equipment performance, safety hazards, and environmental non-compliance. This report details the development of a novel, cost-effective, and portable detection device designed to accurately identify counterfeit refrigerants. The device utilizes a controlled gas sampling and analysis system within a sealed chamber, ensuring precise measurements while maintaining safety through a purging mechanism. The system features a high-sensitivity sensor integrated with an onboard control module that analyzes gas composition in real-time, providing users with clear visual indicators for refrigerant authenticity. Laboratory validation demonstrated the device’s high accuracy (exceeding 95%) in detecting unauthorized refrigerant blends. Key advantages include affordability, ease of use, rapid response time, and compatibility with a wide range of refrigerants. This solution supports compliance with regulatory frameworks such as the AIM Act, enhances safety in HVACR operations, and mitigates the risks associated with counterfeit refrigerants. Future developments will focus on expanding refrigerant detection capabilities, integrating machine learning for enhanced accuracy, implementing cost-reduction strategies to improve accessibility and market adoption, and optimizing system packaging for enhanced field portability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Novel, Low-Cost, Portable Device for Counterfeit and Noncompliant Refrigerant Detection

The increasing prevalence of counterfeit refrigerants presents significant risks to Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVACR) systems, including compromised equipment performance, safety hazards, and environmental non-compliance. This report details the development of a novel, cost-effective, and portable detection device designed to accurately identify counterfeit refrigerants. The device utilizes a controlled gas sampling and analysis system within a sealed chamber, ensuring precise measurements while maintaining safety through a purging mechanism. The system features a high-sensitivity sensor integrated with an onboard control module that analyzes gas composition in real-time, providing users with clear visual indicators for refrigerant authenticity.Laboratory validation demonstrated the device’s high accuracy (exceeding 95%) in detecting unauthorized refrigerant blends. Key advantages include affordability, ease of use, rapid response time, and compatibility with a wide range of refrigerants. This solution supports compliance with regulatory frameworks such as the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act, enhances safety in HVACR operations, and mitigates the risks associated with counterfeit refrigerants. Future developments will focus on expanding refrigerant detection capabilities, integrating machine learning for enhanced accuracy, implementing cost-reduction strategies to improve accessibility and market adoption, and optimizing system packaging for enhanced field portability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Breast-Specific Molecular Clocks Comprised of ELF5 Expression and Promoter Methylation Identify Individuals Susceptible to Cancer Initiation

A robust breast cancer prevention strategy requires risk assessment biomarkers for early detection. We show that expression of ELF5, a transcription factor critical for normal mammary development, is downregulated in mammary luminal epithelia with age. DNA methylation of the ELF5 promoter is negatively correlated with expression in an age-dependent manner. Both ELF5 methylation and gene expression were used to build biological clocks to estimate chronological ages of mammary epithelia. ELF5 clock-based estimates of biological age in luminal epithelia from average-risk women were within three years of chronological age. Biological ages of breast epithelia from BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers, who were high risk for developing breast cancer, suggested they were accelerated by two decades relative to chronological age. The ELF5 DNA methylation clock had better performance at predicting biological age in luminal epithelial cells as compared with two other epigenetic clocks based on whole tissues. We propose that the changes in ELF5 expression or ELF5-proximal DNA methylation in luminal epithelia are emergent properties of at-risk breast tissue and constitute breast-specific biological clocks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Coronado National Memorial Disasters: Investigating Geohazards & Slope Failure Susceptibility Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

The Coronado National Memorial (CORO), located in Hereford, Arizona, is situated along the United States' southern border, featuring recently established but still incomplete border barrier roads. This landscape is inherently prone to geohazards, and debris flow due to the steep mountainous topography, complex terrain, monsoonal rains, and freeze/thaw action - and the new infrastructure has exhibited these processes in the form of rockfall, embankment failure, and debris flow. NASA DEVELOP partnered with CORO to conduct a feasibility assessment of Earth observations for identification of geohazards and slope failure susceptibility. Leveraging Earth observations (United States Geological Survey 3D Elevation Program Digital Elevation Model and a locally obtained Light Detection And Ranging-derived Digital Elevation Model) from 2019 to 2023, and geospatial datasets starting from 2008, the study was able to provide tools to determine the focus for damage mitigation, identify areas most susceptible to slope failures, and prioritize at risk assets through three products: change detection maps, slope failure susceptibility maps, and a slope failure prioritization model. With an emphasis on monitoring high-risk areas and prioritizing mitigation efforts, the project addresses a critical gap in remediation strategies and aims to enhance preservation and safety of the region. Results of this study found that (i) the most identifiable areas of change were the road cuts and debris directly adjacent to the roads created for border construction, (ii) areas of highest slope failure susceptibility are located in mountainous areas with erosive geology, and (iii) roads resulting from border construction have approximately twice the risk of slope failure as roads created by the national park service.

Geohazard↗

Investigating lab-scaled offshore wind aerodynamic testing failure and developing solutions for early anomaly detections

As offshore wind systems become more complex, the risk of human error or equipment malfunction increases during experimental testing. This study investigates a lab-scale incident involving a 1 : 50 scale 5 MW wind turbine, where a generator failure led to rotor overspeed and a blade–tower strike. To improve early fault detection, we propose a data-driven method based on multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) models. High-frequency measurements are projected onto principal components, and anomalies are identified using reconstruction error and its time derivative. Two models are trained on different healthy datasets and tested using single- and multi-principal component (1PC and MPC) variations. Results show that combining both error and error derivative improves detection accuracy. The 1PC model detects faults faster, has a higher recall rate, and achieves a 43 % improvement in anomaly detection accuracy, while the MPC model yields higher precision. This approach provides a simple and effective tool for early anomaly detection in lab-scale experiments, helping to reduce the risk of future failures during the testing of new technologies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DANTi: Detect and Avoid iN The Cockpit

Mid-air collision risk continues to be a concern for manned aircraft operations, especially near busy non-towered airports. The use of Detect and Avoid (DAA) technologies and draft standards developed for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), either alone or in combination with other collision avoidance technologies, may be useful in mitigating this collision risk for manned aircraft. This paper describes a NASA research effort known as DANTi (DAA iN The Cockpit), including the initial development of the concept of use, a software prototype, and results from initial flight tests conducted with this prototype. The prototype used a single Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) traffic sensor and the own aircraft's position, track, heading and air data information, along with NASA-developed DAA software to display traffic alerts and maneuver guidance to manned aircraft pilots on a portable tablet device. Initial flight tests with the prototype showed a successful DANTi proof-of-concept, but also demonstrated that the traffic separation parameter set specified in the RTCA SC-228 Phase I DAA MOPS may generate excessive false alerts during traffic pattern operations. Several parameter sets with smaller separation values were also tested in flight, one of which yielded more timely alerts for the maneuvers tested. Results from this study may further inform future DANTi efforts as well as Phase II DAA MOPS development.

Chamberlain, James↗

Advancing spatiotemporal forecasts of CO 2 plume migration using deep learning networks with transfer learning and interpretation analysis

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume distribution throughout the injection and post-injection phases are crucial for detecting plume migration, assessing leakage risks, and supporting operational decisions in geologic carbon storage (GCS). Current convolutional neural network-based approaches primarily focus on spatial information and overlook temporal dependencies in plume distributions, thus limiting their ability to capture dynamic movement effects and provide accurate predictions of plume migration. In this work, we propose two deep learning models, Auto-Encoder (AE)-LSTM and Encoder-Decoder (ED)-ConvLSTM, each uniquely designed to capture both spatial and temporal features. We apply the proposed methods to forecast the dynamic distribution of CO 2 plumes based on 108 reservoir simulations over a 30-year injection and a 30-year post-injection period. The results indicate that the ED-ConvLSTM model outperforms the AE-LSTM model in accurately predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of CO 2 plume migration, achieving R 2 values above 0.99. To provide a deeper understanding of these model predictions, we employ a gradient-based explanation method on the trained models. This approach provides insights into the influence of input variables on plume migration forecasts and uncovers the underlying prediction mechanisms of the proposed models. Furthermore, we introduce a transfer learning technique, enabling fast and accurate plume migration forecasting in the post-injection phase by leveraging the trained model during the injection phase. This reduces the necessity for extensive data collection or re-training. In conclusion, the methods proposed in our work enhances the performance and interpretability of CO 2 plume migration forecasts, thereby facilitating informed decision-making throughout the entire lifecycle of GCS applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗