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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Microcrack Quantification in Composite Materials by a Neural Network Analysis of Ultrasound Spectral Data

Intra-ply microcracking in unlined composite pressure vessels can be very troublesome to detect and when linked through the thickness can provide leak paths that may hinder mission success. The leaks may lead to loss of pressure/propellant, increased risk of explosion and possible cryo-pumping into air pockets within the laminate. Ultrasonic techniques have been shown capable of detecting the presence of microcracking and in this work they are used to quantify the level of microcracking. Resonance ultrasound methods are utilized with artificial neural networks to build a microcrack prediction/measurement tool. Two networks are presented, one unsupervised to provide a qualitative measure of microcracking and one supervised which provides a quantitative assessment of the level of microcracking. The resonant ultrasound spectroscopic method is made sensitive to microcracking by tuning the input spectrum to the higher frequency (shorter wavelength) components allowing more significant interaction with the defects. This interaction causes the spectral characteristics to shift toward lower amplitudes at the higher frequencies. As the density of the defects increases more interactions occur and more drastic amplitude changes are observed. Preliminary experiments to quantify the level of microcracking induced in graphite/epoxy composite samples through a combination of tensile loading and cryogenic temperatures are presented. Both unsupervised (Kohonen) and supervised (radial basis function) artificial neural networks are presented to determine the measurable effect on the resonance spectrum of the ultrasonic data taken from the samples.

Walker, James L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implications of Safety and Operational Features of Small, Advanced Reactors for the Evaluation of Important Human Actions

The design and operational characteristics of non-light water reactors are likely to change the role of human actions in safety function management and the types of human actions that are deemed important. The objectives of this report are to: • Identify the implications of small, advanced reactor design characteristics on human performance and the changing role of human actions in the management of safety functions. • Identify the methods that may be used to identify important human actions. • Identify how HFE safety reviewers can help ensure that the methods adequately model human actions to identify those that are important to safety. We identified the implications of small, advanced reactor characteristics on the role of personnel in safety function management. Then we addressed how designers can identify which human actions are important to safety using both probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and deterministic analyses. PRA identifies important human actions using risk-importance criteria. Deterministically identified important human actions include those identified by analyses of situations such as transients and accidents and defense in depth. In all cases, the acceptability of the analyses is dependent on the modeling, quantification, and criterion selection to determine which human actions are important. How well the designers address these processes determines the acceptability of their methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Fitness for Duty Standards Using Pre- and Post-Flight Capsule Egress and Suited Functional Performance Tasks in Simulated Reduced Gravity

The transition between gravity environments will involve one of the most complex, high-risk phases of exploration missions. The reduced functional capacity caused by physiological deconditioning adaptations in microgravity coupled with the stressors of re-entry into partial gravity environments will increase risks to crew, even with rigorous adherence to inflight countermeasures. Specifically, two high-risk scenarios may be required to be performed soon after gravity transitions: 1) nominal and/or emergency unassisted capsule egress task after return to Earth, and 2) planetary extravehicular activity (EVA) soon after landing on Mars or the Moon. Quantification of crewmember’s functional performance after long-duration spaceflight is necessary to inform concepts of operations for future exploration missions. The overarching aim of this study is to quantify post-landing functional performance with deconditioning after long-duration ISS missions. This study is broken down into two phases. Phase 1 includes a pilot study to assess the overall feasibility and demonstrate the capability to perform mission-like tasks shortly after landing. Phase 2, the Egress Fitness study, which is part of the Complement of Integrated Protocols for Human Exploration Research (CIPHER), uses a task-based approach to characterize functional performance in long-duration ISS crewmembers before flight and shortly after return to Earth. The pilot and full Egress Fitness study includes pre-flight and post-flight testing of simulated emergency egress out of a functional capsule mockup and a Mars gravity EVA simulation at the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) facility. The EVA simulation tasks include suit donning, hatch egress, ladder descent, task board cable operations, baggage transfer over sand/rocky regolith, alignment with a rear entry port, and suit egress. The post-flight simulated capsule egress test occurs 1–4 h after landing and the planetary EVA simulation occurs 18–36 h after landing. The full CIPHER Egress Fitness study has additional pre-flight sessions, longer EVA tasks that include traverse and geology sampling, and post-flight sessions on R+1, 4, and 8 to characterize the timeframe of recovery. The Pilot Egress Fitness study has completed baseline and post-flight testing on four crewmembers. All subjects were able to complete the post-flight simulated planetary EVA; three subjects were able to complete the postflight capsule egress simulation. CIPHER study data collection is ongoing. This study will quantify post-landing functional performance in operationally relevant simulations to help inform future planetary concepts of operations shortly after landing.

egress↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CIPHER: Egress Fitness

The transition between gravity environments will involve one of the most complex, high-risk phases of exploration missions. The reduced functional capacity caused by physiological deconditioning adaptations in microgravity coupled with the stressors of re-entry into partial gravity environments will increase risks to crew, even with rigorous adherence to inflight countermeasures. Specifically, two high-risk scenarios may be required to be performed soon after gravity transitions: 1) nominal and/or emergency unassisted capsule egress task after return to Earth, and 2) planetary extravehicular activity (EVA) soon after landing on Mars or the Moon. Quantification of crewmember’s functional performance after long-duration spaceflight is necessary to inform concepts of operations for future exploration missions. The overarching aim of this study is to quantify post-landing functional performance with deconditioning after long-duration ISS missions. This study is broken down into two phases. Phase 1 includes a pilot study to assess the overall feasibility and demonstrate the capability to perform mission-like tasks shortly after landing. Phase 2, the Egress Fitness study, which is part of the Complement of Integrated Protocols for Human Exploration Research (CIPHER), uses a task-based approach to characterize functional performance in long-duration ISS crewmembers before flight and shortly after return to Earth. The pilot and full Egress Fitness study includes pre-flight and post-flight testing of simulated emergency egress out of a functional capsule mockup and a Mars gravity EVA simulation at the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) facility. The EVA simulation tasks include suit donning, hatch egress, ladder descent, task board cable operations, baggage transfer over sand/rocky regolith, alignment with a rear entry port, and suit egress. The post-flight simulated capsule egress test occurs 1–4 h after landing and the planetary EVA simulation occurs 18–36 h after landing. The full CIPHER Egress Fitness study has additional pre-flight sessions, longer EVA tasks that include traverse and geology sampling, and post-flight sessions on R+1, 4, and 8 to characterize the timeframe of recovery. Pilot Egress Fitness has completed baseline and post-flight testing on four crewmembers. That study remains open. Originally this was to cover the Boeing CFT mission, but now also includes private astronauts on commercial spaceflights. CIPHER study data collection is ongoing with 2 subjects completed and 4 additional subjects consented. This study will quantify post-landing functional performance in operationally relevant simulations to help inform fitness for duty standards and future planetary concepts of operations shortly after landing.

Jason Norcross↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Pressure-Dependent Interfacial Tension and Contact Angle on Capillary Heterogeneity Trapping of CO2 in Storage Aquifers

Summary Carbon dioxide (CO2) capillary trapping increases the total amount of CO2 that can be effectively immobilized in storage aquifers. This trapping, manifesting itself as accumulated CO2 columns at a continuum scale, is because of capillary threshold effects that occur below low-permeability barriers. Considering that capillary pressure is dictated by heterogeneous pore throat size, the trapped CO2 column height and associated CO2 saturation will vary spatially within a storage aquifer. This variation will be influenced by two pressure-dependent interfacial parameters—CO2/brine interfacial tension (IFT) and CO2/brine/rock contact angle. Our objective is to understand how the pressure dependence of these two parameters affects the heterogeneity of capillary trapped CO2 at a continuum scale. Our conceptual model is a 1D two-zone system with the upper zone being a flow barrier (low permeability) and the lower zone being a flow path (high permeability). The inputs to this model include microfacies-dependent capillary pressure vs. saturation curves and permeability values. The input capillary pressure curves were collected in the literature that represents carbonate microfacies (e.g., dolograinstone) in a prevalent formation in the Permian Basin. We then used the Leverett j-function to scale the capillary pressure curve for the two zones that are assigned with the same or different microfacies. During scaling, we considered the influence of pressure on both the IFT and contact angle of CO2/brine/dolomite systems. We varied the zone permeability contrast ratio from 2 to 50. We then assumed capillary gravity equilibriums and calculated the CO2 saturation buildup corresponding to various trapped CO2 column heights. The CO2 saturation buildup is defined as the CO2 saturation in the lower layer minus that in the upper one. We found that the saturation buildup can be doubled when varying pressure in a storage aquifer, after considering pressure-dependent IFT and contact angles. Thus, assuming these two parameters to be constant across such aquifers would cause large errors in the quantification of capillary trapping of CO2. The whole study demonstrates the importance of considering pressure-dependent interfacial properties in predicting the vertical distribution of capillary trapped CO2. It has important implications in developing a better understanding of leakage risks and consequent storage safety.

Engineering↗
NASA NTRS2000

NASA's New Approach for Evaluating Risk Reduction Due to Space Shuttle Upgrades

As part of NASA's intensive effort to incorporate quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tools in the Agency's decision-making process concerning Space Shuttle risk, NASA has developed a powerful risk assessment tool called the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS). The QRAS is a tool designed to estimate Space Shuttle risk and evaluate Space Shuttle upgrades. This paper presents an overview of the QRAS with focus on its application for evaluating the risk reduction due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. The application includes a case study from the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME). The QRAS overview section of the paper includes the QRAS development process, the technical approach to model development, the QRA quantification methods and techniques, and observations concerning the complex modeling involved in QRAS. The application section of the paper describes a practical case study using QRAS models for evaluating critical Space Shuttle Program upgrades, specifically a proposed SSME nozzle upgrade. This paper presents the method for evaluating the proposed upgrade by comparing the current nozzle (old design with well-established probabilistic models) to the channel wall nozzle (new design at the preliminary design level).

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

PyTUQ: Python Toolkit for Uncertainty Quantification

SAND2025-03661O PyTUQ is a user-friendly software toolkit designed to help researchers and professionals understand and manage uncertainty in several scientific fields. By providing tools for analyzing how uncertainties affect outcomes, PyTUQ can be applied in areas such as energy production, and biology. Its unique approach allows users to make more informed decisions by assessing risks and improving predictions. Whether you're studying combustion processes or exploring complex biological systems, PyTUQ empowers you to gain deeper insights and enhance the reliability of your results. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear safety Enhanced: A Deep dive into current and future RAVEN applications

As the horizon of nuclear energy expands with the advent of small modular reactors, IV generation reactors, and fusion reactors, there is a growing perspective that the licensing process could benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Moving beyond traditional deterministic and PRA analysis might pave the way for a novel safety analysis paradigm propelled by the increasing computational power at our disposal. This paper explores different methodologies that can improve the outcomes of nuclear safety analysis. These range from uncertainty quantification techniques, aimed at enhancing the precision of safety margins, to deploying dynamic event trees by driving system code simulations, capturing the potential evolutions of severe accidents. These methodologies introduce innovative dimensions to safety analysis, considering the consequences of postulated events and the dynamics of accident sequences. However, they also bring forth challenges, especially in managing the complexity and sheer volume of potential scenarios. The paper touches upon some strategies to counter these challenges, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and continuous evolution in the face of emerging nuclear safety concerns. Additionally, the paper sheds light on the need for advanced tools to apply these methodologies. Among these tools is RAVEN, an open-source software designed for parametric and probabilistic analyses. Its core components, including distribution, sampler, and reduced order model, enable various applications, from risk assessment and mitigation to dynamic learning and plant control logic simulations.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification in MELCOR Safety analysis of ARIES reactor designs

MELCOR-TMAP is a combined thermal-hydraulics and tritium tracking code developed to simulate severe accident scenarios in fission and fusion power plants. Here, we demonstrate the results of MELCOR-TMAP analyses on historical ARIES program reference designs. By coupling MELCOR-TMAP with the open source RAVEN probabilistic risk analysis framework’s Bayesian UQ capabilities, we also demonstrate key uncertainties in material properties with the highest impact on tritium inventory and plant risk.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Carbon Consumption Database for Wildland Fire

Fire plays a significant role on both national and global scales, profoundly impacting landscapes shaped by human activity as well as those left wild. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes. Fires can also serve to reduce fuels to mitigate wildfire risk and maintain healthy ecosystem functions. However, the smoke produced by fires, regardless of their size or purpose, can pose adverse effects on human health when inhaled downwind. Understanding the influence of smoke on air quality and human well-being necessitates the quantification of emissions that fires release into the atmosphere. In response to this need, we have established a comprehensive global consumption database directly linked to distinct fuels within various fire danger categories. This database, featuring a spatial resolution of approximately 300 meters, builds upon the foundations of the Pettinari, M. Lucrecia (2015) Global Fuelbed database, a global fuel map with standardized Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) biomass parameters. Consumption is broken down into five Fire Danger categories (Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme), for both ‘new’ and ‘residual’ burning scenarios. We define ‘residual burned area’ as area burning in a region that has burned on a previous day for the same fire season, and ‘new burned area’ as area burning in a region that has not recently burned. This product serves as a valuable tool when used in conjunction with burned area data to rapidly estimate the carbon consumed and released into the atmosphere. Previously, we developed a similar emissions method utilizing satellite information, in conjunction with the FCCS 30-meter United States fuelbed dataset. We implemented this approach on fires, documented during the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign to estimate daily carbon emissions. Our emissions estimates were rigorously compared against in-situ measurements of CO2, CO, and black carbon aerosols, revealing a robust agreement between the two datasets.

Emily Gargulinski↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CONUS and Global Carbon Consumption Database for Wildland Fire

Fire plays a significant role on both national and global scales, profoundly impacting landscapes shaped by human activity as well as wildlands. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes. Fires can also serve to reduce fuels to mitigate wildfire risk and maintain healthy ecosystem functions. However, the smoke produced by fires, regardless of their size or purpose, can pose adverse effects on human health when inhaled downwind. Understanding the influence of smoke on air quality and human well-being necessitates the quantification of emissions that fires release into the atmosphere. In response to this need, we have developed a carbon consumption database for the Continental United States (CONUS) and are developing a global carbon consumption database, both of which are directly link to distinct fuels within various fire danger categories. Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) fuels are used to parameterize biomass, and consumption is broken down into five Fire Danger categories (Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme), for both ‘new’ and ‘residual’ burning scenarios. Residual burned area is defined as burning in areas that have recently burned. We implemented the FCCS 30-meter CONUS fuelbed dataset during the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign to estimate daily carbon emissions. Our emissions estimates were rigorously compared against in-situ measurements of CO2, CO, and black carbon aerosols, revealing a robust agreement between the two datasets. The 300-meter global database builds upon the foundations of the Pettinari, M. Lucrecia (2015) Global Fuelbed database, a global fuel map with standardized FCCS biomass parameters. These products can serve as valuable tools when used in conjunction with burned area data to rapidly and accurately estimate carbon consumed and released into the atmosphere.

FCCS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification for JPL Retrievals

We define the notions of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ), and place them in the context of retrievals of Earth science data. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of characterizing the uncertainty of a measurement system relative to the true, physical quantity it measures. UQ is needed when measurements are used for scientific inference, assimilated into models with other data, and used for decision-making and risk analysis. Many measurements come with measures of standard error and bias, but these uncertainty measures are often inaccurate, due to the operational need to assume crisp values for parameters which are in fact uncertain, as well as the failure of technical assumptions needed by operational error-estimation approaches. UQ provides a way to study which assumptions fail to hold, and a tool to improve the measurement. We describe a particular, broadly-applicable UQ setup that has been successful for JPL retrievals including OCO-2, and provide recommendations for furthering the UQ state of the practice at JPL.

Turmon, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2023

Automated Fluidics Device for Extraction and Quantification of miRNA Biomarkers From Blood

Radiation Assessment DuRing Exposure And long-Duration Spaceflight (RADREADS) demonstrates space-compatible point-of-care technology for quantitative biological monitoring of blood miRNA biomarkers in response to long-term low dose radiation exposure. This individualized monitoring approach will inform targeted treatment strategies to maximize medical resource utilization by accounting for individual susceptibility to radiation-related illnesses. As human spaceflight progresses beyond Earth’s magnetic shielding, radiation exposure poses a significant risk to astronaut health and safety. Extended operation in this environment comes with an increased risk of radiation exposure, leading to higher risks of radiation sickness, cancer, central nervous system effects, and degenerative diseases. While conventional physical dosimetry techniques capture radiation dose, individualistic susceptibility to radiation damage is varied. Multiple characteristics, including age, body weight, sex, genetics, and immune status, have been found to influence radiosensitivity (Liu et al. 2011, and Bouffler 2016). This differential response necessitates individualized monitoring and targeted treatment strategies to maximize medical resource utilization; however, a practical diagnostic platform for quantifying long-term, low dose radiation-induced tissue damage does not currently exist. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are a class of small, non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression by mediating the degradation of messenger RNA. The levels of particular miRNAs are influenced by biological processes such as inflammation and serve as biomarkers for a variety of conditions including cancer (Singh et al. 2017). MicroRNAs are found in various bodily fluids and are amenable to collection via liquid biopsies, providing a minimally invasive and easily quantifiable readout for a variety of radiosensitive reporters. A preliminary signature of 15 spaceflight sensitive miRNA has been identified in rodent and human studies, including miR-21-5p, miR-24-3p, miR-92a-3p, miR-17-5p, miR-16a-3p, miR-34a-3p, and miR-223-3p. These targets generally increased expression with radiation dose and linear energy transfer, though variation between individuals is not yet described. Current gaps in the field include a lack of understanding of longitudinal biological responses to long-term, low dose radiation exposure and the absence of space-compatible point-of-care technology for quantitative biological monitoring. In this body of work, we aim to develop an automated bleed-to-read system to process whole blood for the detection of miRNA biomarkers in order to monitor individualistic responses to radiation exposure. This will be achieved via separating serum (or plasma) from whole blood, followed by extraction, amplification, and quantification of the miRNA using a RT-qPCR reaction. Previously, the WetLab-2 hardware enabled execution of a RT-qPCR reaction aboard ISS; however, it is a manual system that requires crew manipulation and bulky components (Parra et al. 2017). To address these issues, automated fluid handling hardware was developed for each stage of sample preparation. Extraction of total RNA is achieved by sequentially pumping reagents through an off-the-shelf nucleic acid binding column (miRNeasy Serum/Plasma Advanced Kit, Qiagen). This approach eliminates several manual pipetting and centrifuging steps and limits the use of toxic chemicals commonly found in other sample processing techniques. The resulting elution will then be automatically dispensed for RT-qPCR analysis using a compact rotary qPCR (Mic qPCR Cycler, Bio Molecular Systems) that will improve spaceflight compatibility by removing bubbles from the detection region, another challenge highlighted by WetLab-2 (Parra et al. 2017). Efforts are also being made to simplify the RT-qPCR reaction to a 1-step air-dryable mix to improve long-term reagent stability at room temperature and reduce system complexity. By automating the RT-qPCR processes via microfluidic manipulation, RADREADS will reduce crewmember hands-on time and enable the personalized detection of radiation-induced tissue damage during long duration missions. Minimally invasive, longitudinal monitoring of individual’s response to radiation exposure will inform how the physiological system responds to long-term low dose space radiation and enables development of targeted countermeasures by the medical team. Ultimately, this portable technology will require minimal technical expertise and can also be used to monitor miRNA biomarkers associated with other diseases.

Tristen Head↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of representative ground motion level on seismic PSA with the boundary between overestimation and underestimation

One commonly used approach in seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is the discrete method. This method follows the standard PSA framework and can be applied to various models, such as multi-unit models, while reducing computational costs using standard software. However, due to the inability to subdivide intervals infinitely, the discrete method approximates with a finite number of subintervals. In practice, different numbers of subintervals are applied, and the representative ground motion level is selected based on expert judgment. When employing a smaller number of subintervals, it is important to take caution to prevent underestimation. This study analyzes the impact of the representative ground motion level on seismic risk. It confirms that underestimation can occur with a small number of subintervals depending on the representative ground motion level. This study also proposes a method for determining the boundary of underestimation and overestimation. The method is demonstrated through examples, providing a mathematical foundation for selecting appropriate representative ground motion levels. By avoiding underestimation, this research helps prevent the oversight of significant risk contributors and enhances the understanding of seismic risk.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Role of Uncertainty in Aerospace Vehicle Analysis and Design

Effective uncertainty quantification (UQ) begins at the earliest phase in the design phase for which there are adequate models and continues tightly integrated to the analysis and design cycles as the refinement of the models and the fidelity of the tools increase. It is essential that uncertainty quantification strategies provide objective information to support the processes of identifying, analyzing and accommodating for the effects of uncertainty. Assessments of uncertainty should never render the results more difficult for engineers and decision makers to comprehend, but instead provide them with critical information to assist with resource utilization decisions and risk mitigation strategies. Success would be measured by the tools to enable engineers and decision makers to effectively balance critical project resources against system requirements while accounting for the impact of uncertainty.

Kenny, Sean P.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Structural dynamics: Probabilistic structural analysis methods. Program overview

A brief description is provided of the fundamental aspects of a quantification process. Progress since the last structural durability conference in 1989 is summarized. The methodology to date and that to be developed during the life of the program is presented. The uncertain factors are presented. The approach is outlined that is required to achieve component and/or system certification in the shortest possible time for affordable reliability risk. Two new elements appear in a block diagram: (1) uncertainties in human factor, and (2) uncertainties in the computer code. Research to quantify the uncertainties in the human factor was initiated and is discussed.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

A review of energy storage for power system resilience: Functions, metrics, and applications

Aging infrastructure, increasing operational complexity, and surging electricity demand from artificial intelligence and electrification are straining the grid and heightening the risks of disruptions, making resilience a critical priority. Energy storage is increasingly deployed to provide critical power supply, fast grid support, and rapid restoration. However, current practice lacks consistent metrics and systematic methodologies to rigorously quantify the resilience benefits of storage. This paper provides a comprehensive review of energy storage in resilience enhancement, focusing on functional roles, quantification metrics, and integration strategies. A structured resilience metrics library is compiled and categorized to encompass both technical and economic performance aspects. Existing methodologies for resilience-oriented storage planning and operations are critically examined. Key technical and practical challenges are identified, and future research directions are outlined to strengthen storage contributions to grid resilience.

Benefit quantification↗
NASA NTRS2023

Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes Over the United States

Extreme climate events are societally harmful and have increased in frequency and intensity in recent decades. Indices based on temperature and precipitation are a valuable way to quantify climate extremes. Certain indices are defined relative to percentiles, which are dependent on a climatological baseline period. In this study, indices computed using temperature and precipitation from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 are calculated using percentiles from three baseline periods: 1981–2010, 1991–2020 and 1981–2020. Updating the baseline period from 1981 to 2010 to 1991–2020 leads to significant changes in the quantification of temperature and precipitation extremes over the United States over 1980–2021. Using the later baseline period indicates more cold extremes, fewer warm extremes, and fewer but more intense precipitation extremes throughout the US, with regional variation. Changing the baseline period can mislead the public and decision makers, potentially undermining the appropriate response to climate-related health risks.

Natalie P. Thomas↗