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Energy efficient engine: Preliminary design and integration studies

Parametric design and mission evaluations of advanced turbofan configurations were conducted for future transport aircraft application. Economics, environmental suitability and fuel efficiency were investigated and compared with goals set by NASA. Of the candidate engines which included mixed- and separate-flow, direct-drive and geared configurations, an advanced mixed-flow direct-drive configuration was selected for further design and evaluation. All goals were judged to have been met except the acoustic goal. Also conducted was a performance risk analysis and a preliminary aerodynamic design of the 10 stage 23:1 pressure ratio compressor used in the study engines.

Johnston, R. P.↗

Marin County Wildland Fires: Examining Fuel Load and Land Cover Change to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, CA

Heightened occurrence of severe wildfires in the Western United States is increasing the need to better understand regions of high potential wild fire severity and develop methodologies for identifying the best locations for fuels reduction and active wildfire suppression, especially in populated regions such as Marin County, California. Marin County, located in the San Francisco Bay Area, has had significant development in the wildland-urban interface and periods of highly wildfire-prone conditions. The NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with Fire Foundry, a Marin-based fire service work force development program, to develop new models to assist with fire management. Using data from Sentinel-2A, Planet Scope, ECOSTRESS, a county-wide LiDAR mapping effort, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the team developed several input data layers to three models evaluating wild fire severity. One model performed a suitability analysis with weights based on scientific literature, another utilized machine learning based on past fires in Marin and neighboring Sonoma County to predict the difference normalized burn ratio, and the third inputted data layers into the Flam Map tool, which outputs risk categories. The team compared model outputs and, using the best-fit model, performed fuzzy logic analysis to identify specific locations where a fire break could be constructed to interrupt the progress of an active fire. These tools were proven useful and will assist partners in preparing for and managing an active wildfire event.

Suhani Dalal↗

Familial Associations of Prevalence and Cause-Specific Mortality for Thoracic Aortic Disease and Bicuspid Aortic Valve in a Large-Population Database

Thoracic aortic disease and bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) likely have a heritable component, but large population-based studies are lacking. This study characterizes familial associations of thoracic aortic disease and BAV, as well as cardiovascular and aortic-specific mortality, among relatives of these individuals in a large-population database. In this observational case-control study of the Utah Population Database, we identified probands with a diagnosis of BAV, thoracic aortic aneurysm, or thoracic aortic dissection. Age- and sex-matched controls (10:1 ratio) were identified for each proband. First-degree relatives, second-degree relatives, and first cousins of probands and controls were identified through linked genealogical information. Cox proportional hazard models were used to quantify the familial associations for each diagnosis. We used a competing-risk model to determine the risk of cardiovascular-specific and aortic-specific mortality for relatives of probands. The study population included 3,812,588 unique individuals. Familial hazard risk of a concordant diagnosis was elevated in the following populations compared with controls: first-degree relatives of patients with BAV (hazard ratio [HR], 6.88 [95% CI, 5.62–8.43]); first-degree relatives of patients with thoracic aortic aneurysm (HR, 5.09 [95% CI, 3.80–6.82]); and first-degree relatives of patients with thoracic aortic dissection (HR, 4.15 [95% CI, 3.25–5.31]). In addition, the risk of aortic dissection was higher in first-degree relatives of patients with BAV (HR, 3.63 [95% CI, 2.68–4.91]) and in first-degree relatives of patients with thoracic aneurysm (HR, 3.89 [95% CI, 2.93–5.18]) compared with controls. Dissection risk was highest in first-degree relatives of patients who carried a diagnosis of both BAV and aneurysm (HR, 6.13 [95% CI, 2.82–13.33]). First-degree relatives of patients with BAV, thoracic aneurysm, or aortic dissection had a higher risk of aortic-specific mortality (HR, 2.83 [95% CI, 2.44–3.29]) compared with controls. Our results indicate that BAV and thoracic aortic disease carry a significant familial association for concordant disease and aortic dissection. The pattern of familiality is consistent with a genetic cause of disease. Furthermore, we observed higher risk of aortic-specific mortality in relatives of individuals with these diagnoses. In conclusion, this study provides supportive evidence for screening in relatives of patients with BAV, thoracic aneurysm, or dissection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Analysis of implant loss risk factors after simultaneous guided bone regeneration: A retrospective study of 5404 dental implants

Abstract Purpose The purpose was to analyze the risk factors for implant loss after simultaneous guided bone regeneration (GBR). Materials and Methods Patients who underwent implant placement with simultaneous GBR between January 2011 and December 2018 were screened for this study. The cumulative survival rate (CSR) was calculated using the life table method. Log‐rank test and Kaplan–Meier survival estimates were used to identify potential risk factors for implant loss. The association between the investigated variables and implant loss was determined using hazard ratios (HRs) obtained from a multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results A total of 3973 patients with 5404 implants were included in this study. The CSRs of the implants at 1, 5, and 10 years were 99.6%, 98.9%, and 98.7%, respectively. Male patient (HR = 2.94, 95% CI: 1.41–6.14), periodontitis (HR = 4.26, 95% CI: 2.05–9.86), tissue‐level implants (HR = 3.02, 95% CI: 1.30–6.98), narrow implants (HR = 2.71, 95% CI: 1.12–6.57), and implant length ≤10 mm (HR = 2.91, 95% CI: 1.41–6.02) significantly increased the risk of implant loss ( p < 0.05). The risk of implant loss was significantly higher in the maxillary posterior region (HR = 2.26, 95% CI: 1.04–4.90) than in the maxillary anterior region ( p < 0.05). Compared to Straumann, Nobel (HR = 4.07, 95% CI: 1.75–9.44) and other implant systems (HR = 14.23, 95% CI: 4.32–46.85) showed a significantly higher risk of implant loss ( p < 0.05). Conclusion Male patient, periodontitis, maxillary posterior region, Nobel implant system, other implant systems, tissue‐level implants, narrow implants, and implant length ≤10 mm were considered risk factors for implant loss after simultaneous GBR.

Shen, Xiaoting↗

Chemo‐mechanical Alterations Induced From CO 2 Injection in Carbonate‐Cemented Sandstone: An Experimental Study at 71 °C and 29 MPa

Abstract Carbon capture, utilization, and storage may lead to mechanical degradation of the subsurface reservoir from fluid‐rock interaction, which could lead to wellbore instability or reservoir compaction. To better understand potential relationship between mechanical degradation with various carbonate cement textures and compositions in sandstone reservoirs, six flow‐through experiments were conducted. Formation water (TDS = 5,390 mg/L) enriched with CO 2 flowed through two types of Pennsylvanian Morrow B Sandstone: an ankerite‐siderite‐cemented sandstone (disseminated cement texture) and a calcite‐cemented sandstone (poikilotopic cement texture). The experiments produced little change in permeability in the ankerite‐siderite‐cemented sandstone, but permeability increased up to more than 1 order of magnitude in the calcite‐cemented sandstone. Ultrasonic measurements and cylinder‐splitting tests (also known as Brazilian tests) suggested negligible mechanical degradation of the ankerite‐siderite‐cemented sandstone. Variable changes, with significant mechanical degradation in the static moduli, were observed in the calcite‐cemented sandstone. Thus, dissolution of the disseminated ankerite‐siderite cement (0.28–0.30%) had minimal impact on modifying the flow network and the mechanical integrity of the sandstone, whereas dissolution of the poikilotopic calcite cement (0.89–1.13%, quantified with fluid chemistry and visualized with X‐ray microcomputed tomography) impacted the mechanical strength of the sandstone by disconnecting framework grains. With the high water‐to‐rock mass ratios (7.3–8.2) and number of pore volumes (147–675) employed in these experiments, potential risks are most relevant to regions near injection wells. Ultimately, the chemo‐mechanical effects induced by CO 2 injection are strongly influenced by the cement texture and composition and the burial history of the reservoir rock.

Wu, Z.↗

Insights on Wind Turbine Maintenance From the Usage History of a General Electric Transportation Systems Gearbox

Recently, micropitting that occurred in a wind turbine gearbox has been used as a case study of the International Organization for Standardization technical specification ISO/TS 6336-22. This technical specification contains a proposed calculation of risk of micropitting in gear sets, in terms of a safety factor based on the ratio of the minimum to the permissible specific lubricant film thickness. This report summarizes the operational history of the micropitted gearbox for future case studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Carbon fiber behavior in an enclosed volume

Tests were performed to evaluate the behavior of single carbon fibers existing in an enclosed space such as a room of a building. Three general phenomena were explored: the concentration decay rate of a fiber-charged room, the degree of uniform mixing of fibers within a room, and the effects of fibers being redisseminated off deposition surfaces within a room. The results were required in understanding the ratio of total indoor fiber exposure to total outdoor fiber exposure, a quantity essential to risk analysis. Results indicate that decay rate is predictable within acceptable limits and that homogeneous mixing can always be assumed. Some factors of redissemination are identified and effects discussed.

Harvey, M. C.↗

Supersonic airplane study and design

A supersonic airplane creates shocks which coalesce and form a classical N-wave on the ground, forming a double bang noise termed sonic boom. A recent supersonic commercial transport (the Concorde) has a loud sonic boom (over 100 PLdB) and low aerodynamic performance (cruise lift-drag ratio 7). To enhance the U.S. market share in supersonic transport, an airframer's market risk for a low-boom airplane has to be reduced. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to design airplanes to meet the dual constraints of low sonic boom and high aerodynamic performance. During the past year, a research effort was focused on three main topics. The first was to use the existing design tools, developed in past years, to design one of the low-boom wind-tunnel configurations (Ames Model 3) for testing at Ames Research Center in April 1993. The second was to use a Navier-Stokes code (Overflow) to support the Oblique-All-Wing (OAW) study at Ames. The third was to study an optimization technique applied on a Haack-Adams body to reduce aerodynamic drag.

Cheung, Samson↗

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

A document discusses sequential probability ratio tests that explicitly allow decision-makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models the null hypotheses that the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming, highly elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

In the previous five years, the rate of conjunctions that the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team processed and analyzed has more than tripled. (NASA CARA, 2024) New missions in the early development phases are now required to plan for dealing with conjunctions under the present space environment, and also projecting forward into a future likely with even further increased utilization of the space environment. Some missions are investigating the possibility of using differential drag to remediate conjunctions without expending limited fuel or for missions without propulsive capabilities. The NASA CARA team studied the historical record of conjunctions to evaluate the circumstances under which differential drag may be successfully applied and have developed a series of tables to use as a decision aid for missions considering differential drag. CARA records all conjunctions of their protected payloads, with historical records starting in 2005 (with significant conjunction events starting to occur on or after 2013). From this record, approximately 7,300 had a probability of collision (Pc) greater than 1 in 10,000, the nominal requirement for a risk mitigation maneuver (RMM) to be made per NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8079.1 (NASA, 2023), at 3 days prior to the time of closest approach, the time analyzed for differential drag efficacy. CARA’s maneuver trade space tool (MTS) was used to prop-agate the primary satellite forward from that decision point with varying degrees of increase to ballistic coefficient (BC), and then recalculate the Pc to evaluate whether or not the conjunction was mitigated (Pc < 3E-6). These results were then binned and sorted along several axes, including altitude, amount of delta-BC, and (pre-maneuver) rate of energy dissipation, to identify underlying patterns. The altitude plot is shown in Figure 1. We found that differential drag was most successful for satellites with perigees below 560 km, and which could adopt an average delta-BC of 2 or greater (that is, increasing their ballistic coefficient by a factor of 3). However, this is a difficult threshold for a mission to clear; very few spacecraft are capable of adopting a high-drag configuration for 72 hours continuously. Planet’s Dove spacecraft use differential drag to remediate conjunctions (Griffith, et al., 2021), and they have a maximum delta-BC factor of 9, but in practice (with mission and charging constraints) they achieve a time-averaged delta-BC that is closer to 2 (Foster, et al., 2017). In contrast, a NASA mission in development reached out to CARA to evaluate the utility of differential drag to remediate potential conjunctions for a spacecraft which is capable of a similar high delta-BC, but with operational constraints that limit their time-averaged delta-BC to less than 1. CARA has developed tables that can be used as decision aids to advise missions-in-development about the best way to utilize their differential drag capabilities. For missions below 560 km with the operational flexibility to devote multiple days to holding a high-drag configuration (or a sufficiently high drag ratio to compensate for limitations on that time), they are able to successfully remediate high-risk conjunctions. Conversely, missions that do not meet these ex-acting criteria – most missions – can instead be advised to use on-board propulsion systems to perform RMMs or to turn their minimum-area face towards the approach vector, thereby reducing Pc at the moment of conjunction. (NASA, 2023)

risk mitigation↗

Hyperthermia in the treatment of cancer: A review of the radiobiological basis

Temperatures in the range 41.5 C to 43.5 C tend to be more damaging to malignant than nonmalignant cells. Where local hyperthermia (41.5 C to 43.5 C) is combined with ionizing radiation, a significant therapeutic ratio may be realized. Total body hyperthermia, alone or combined with other therapeutic modalities, can provide palliation for some systemic malignancies but may not be as effective as local hyperthermia for treating local disease. The influence of hyperthermia on immune mechanisms and the risk of metastatic spread of potential tumor growth stimulation need further investigation. Among other questions needing elucidation before hyperthermia can be considered a standard treatment modality are the time-dose (for heating) relationships to produce an optimal therapeutic ratio and whether the late sequela of combined heat and ionizing radiation may result in an unacceptable risk of patient morbidity.

Baker, D. G.↗

Capture of Hydrogen Using ZrNi

Water, as ice, is thought to reside in craters at the lunar poles along with CH4 and H2 . A proposed robotic mission for 2012 will utilize metal/metal hydrides for H2 recovery. Specifications are 99% capture of H2 initially at 5 bar and 100C (or greater), and degassing completely at 300C. Of 47-systems examined using the van't Hoff equation, 4 systems, Mg/MgH2, Mg2Ni/Mg2NiH4, ZrNi/ZrNiH2.8, and Pd/PdH0.77, were considered likely candidates for further examination. It is essential, when selecting a system, to also examine questions regarding activation, kinetics, cyclic stability, and gas impurity effects. After considering those issues, ZrN1 was selected as the most promising candidate, as it is easily activated and rapidly forms ZrNiH 2.8 . In addition, it resists oxide poisoning by CO2, and H2O, while some oxidation by O2 is recommended for improved activation . The presence of hydrogen in the as received Zr-Ni alloy from Alfa Aesar posed additional technical problems. X-ray diffraction of the Zr-Ni powder (-325 mesh), with a Zr:Ni wt% ratio of 70:30, was found to consist of ZrH2, ZrNiH2.8, and ZrNi. ZrH2 in the alloy presented the risk that after degassing that both Zr and ZrNi would be present, and thus lead to erroneous results regarding the reactivity of ZrNi with H2 . Fortunately, ZrH2 is a highly stable hydride that does not degas H2 to any significant extent at temperatures below 300C. Based on equilibrium calculations for the decomposition of ZrH2, only 1 millionth of the hydride decomposed at 300C under a N2 atmosphere flowing at 25 ccm for 64 hours, the longest time for pretreatment employed in the investigation. It was possible, from the X-ray results and knowledge of the Zr:Ni ratio, to compute the composition of a pretreated specimen as being 76 wt% ZrNi and the balance ZrH2.

Patton, Lisa↗

Tea consumption and risk of bladder cancer in the Bladder Cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) Study: Pooled analysis of 12 international cohort studies

Tea has been shown to be associated with reduced risk of several diseases including cardiovascular diseases, stroke, metabolic syndrome, and obesity. However, the results on the relationship between tea consumption and bladder cancer are conflicting. This research aimed to assess the association between tea consumption and risk of bladder cancer using a pooled analysis of prospective cohort data. Individual data from 532,949 participants in 12 cohort studies, were pooled for analyses. Cox regression models stratified by study centre was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% CIs. Fractional polynomial regression models were used to examine the dose–response relationship. A higher level of tea consumption was associated with lower risk of bladder cancer incidence (compared with no tea consumption: HR = 0.87, 95% C.I. = 0.77–0.98 for low consumption; HR = 0.86, 95% C.I. = 0.77–0.96 for moderate consumption; HR = 0.84, 95% C.I. = 0.75–0.95 for high consumption). When stratified by sex and smoking status, this reduced risk was statistically significant among men and current and former smokers. In addition, dose–response analyses showed a lower bladder cancer risk with increment of 100 ml of tea consumption per day (HR-increment = 0.97; 95% CI = 0.96–0.98). A similar inverse association was found among males, current and former smokers while never smokers and females showed non-significant results, suggesting potential sex-dependent effect. Higher consumption of tea is associated with reduced risk of bladder cancer with potential interaction with sex and smoking status. Further studies are needed to clarify the mechanisms for a protective effect of tea (e.g. inhibition of the survival and proliferation of cancer cells and anti-inflammatory mechanisms) and its interaction with smoking and sex.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Describing patterns of familial cancer risk in subfertile men using population pedigree data

STUDY QUESTION Can we simultaneously assess risk for multiple cancers to identify familial multicancer patterns in families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men? SUMMARY ANSWER Here, distinct familial cancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in familial cancer risk by both type of subfertility and within subfertility type. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Subfertile men and their relatives show increased risk for certain cancers including testicular, thyroid, and pediatric. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A retrospective cohort of subfertile men (N = 786) was identified and matched to fertile population controls (N = 5674). Family members out to third-degree relatives were identified for both subfertile men and fertile population controls (N = 337 754). The study period was 1966–2017. Individuals were censored at death or loss to follow-up, loss to follow-up occurred if they left Utah during the study period. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Azoospermic (0 × 10 6 /mL) and severely oligozoospermic (<1.5 × 10 6 /mL) men were identified in the Subfertility Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort (SHARE). Subfertile men were age- and sex-matched 5:1 to fertile population controls and family members out to third-degree relatives were identified using the Utah Population Database (UPDB). Cancer diagnoses were identified through the Utah Cancer Registry. Families containing ≥10 members with ≥1 year of follow-up 1966–2017 were included (azoospermic: N = 426 families, 21 361 individuals; oligozoospermic: N = 360 families, 18 818 individuals). Unsupervised clustering based on standardized incidence ratios for 34 cancer phenotypes in the families was used to identify familial multicancer patterns; azoospermia and severe oligospermia families were assessed separately. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Compared to control families, significant increases in cancer risks were observed in the azoospermia cohort for five cancer types: bone and joint cancers hazard ratio (HR) = 2.56 (95% CI = 1.48–4.42), soft tissue cancers HR = 1.56 (95% CI = 1.01–2.39), uterine cancers HR = 1.27 (95% CI = 1.03–1.56), Hodgkin lymphomas HR = 1.60 (95% CI = 1.07–2.39), and thyroid cancer HR = 1.54 (95% CI = 1.21–1.97). Among severe oligozoospermia families, increased risk was seen for three cancer types: colon cancer HR = 1.16 (95% CI = 1.01–1.32), bone and joint cancers HR = 2.43 (95% CI = 1.30–4.54), and testis cancer HR = 2.34 (95% CI = 1.60–3.42) along with a significant decrease in esophageal cancer risk HR = 0.39 (95% CI = 0.16–0.97). Thirteen clusters of familial multicancer patterns were identified in families of azoospermic men, 66% of families in the azoospermia cohort showed population-level cancer risks, however, the remaining 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 2-7 cancer types. Several of the clusters with elevated cancer risks also showed increased odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages with six clusters showing increased odds of adolescent and young adult (AYA) diagnosis [odds ratio (OR) = 1.96–2.88] and two clusters showing increased odds of pediatric cancer diagnosis (OR = 3.64–12.63). Within the severe oligozoospermia cohort, 12 distinct familial multicancer clusters were identified. All 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 1–3 cancer types. An increase in odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages was also seen in five of the severe oligozoospermia familial multicancer clusters, three clusters showed increased odds of AYA diagnosis (OR = 2.19–2.78) with an additional two clusters showing increased odds of a pediatric diagnosis (OR = 3.84–9.32). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Although this study has many strengths, including population data for family structure, cancer diagnoses and subfertility, there are limitations. First, semen measures are not available for the sample of fertile men. Second, there is no information on medical comorbidities or lifestyle risk factors such as smoking status, BMI, or environmental exposures. Third, all of the subfertile men included in this study were seen at a fertility clinic for evaluation. These men were therefore a subset of the overall population experiencing fertility problems and likely represent those with the socioeconomic means for evaluation by a physician. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This analysis leveraged unique population-level data resources, SHARE and the UPDB, to describe novel multicancer clusters among the families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men. Distinct overall multicancer risk and familial multicancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in cancer risk by type of subfertility and within subfertility type. Describing families with similar cancer risk patterns provides a new avenue to increase homogeneity for focused gene discovery and environmental risk factor studies. Such discoveries will lead to more accurate risk predictions and improved counseling for patients and their families. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was funded by GEMS: Genomic approach to connecting Elevated germline Mutation rates with male infertility and Somatic health (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD): R01 HD106112). The authors have no conflicts of interest relevant to this work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Dietary B group vitamin intake and the bladder cancer risk: a pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies

Abstract Purpose Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). The B group complex vitamins involve diverse biological functions that could be influential in cancer prevention. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between various components of the B group vitamin complex and BC risk. Methods Dietary data were pooled from four cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of B group vitamins and pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were obtained using Cox-regression models. Dose–response relationships were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. Results In total, 2915 BC cases and 530,012 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an increased BC risk for moderate intake of vitamin B1 (HR B1 : 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00–1.20). In men, moderate intake of the vitamins B1, B2, energy-related vitamins and high intake of vitamin B1 were associated with an increased BC risk (HR (95% CI): 1.13 (1.02–1.26), 1.14 (1.02–1.26), 1.13 (1.02–1.26; 1.13 (1.02–1.26), respectively). In women, high intake of all vitamins and vitamin combinations, except for the entire complex, showed an inverse association (HR (95% CI): 0.80 (0.67–0.97), 0.83 (0.70–1.00); 0.77 (0.63–0.93), 0.73 (0.61–0.88), 0.82 (0.68–0.99), 0.79 (0.66–0.95), 0.80 (0.66–0.96), 0.74 (0.62–0.89), 0.76 (0.63–0.92), respectively). Dose–response analyses showed an increased BC risk for higher intake of vitamin B1 and B12. Conclusion Our findings highlight the importance of future research on the food sources of B group vitamins in the context of the overall and sex-stratified diet.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Association of female reproductive and hormonal factors with gallbladder cancer risk in Asia: A pooled analysis of the Asia Cohort Consortium

Abstract The female predominance of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has led to a hypothesis regarding the hormone‐related aetiology of GBC. We aimed to investigate the association between female reproductive factors and GBC risk, considering birth cohorts of Asian women. We conducted a pooled analysis of 331,323 women from 12 cohorts across 4 countries (China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore) in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between reproductive factors (age at menarche, parity, age at first delivery, breastfeeding, and age at menopause) and GBC risk. We observed that a later age at menarche was associated with an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.16–1.70 for 17 years and older vs. 13–14 years), especially among the cohort born in 1940 and later (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.50–4.35). Among the cohort born before 1940, women with a later age at first delivery showed an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.08–2.24 for 31 years of age and older vs. 20 years of age and younger). Other reproductive factors did not show a clear association with GBC risk. Later ages at menarche and at first delivery were associated with a higher risk of GBC, and these associations varied by birth cohort.

Shin, Aesun↗

Organochlorine pesticides and risk of papillary thyroid cancer in U.S. military personnel: a nested case-control study

Background: The effects of organochlorine pesticide (OCP) exposure on the development of human papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) are not well understood. A nested case-control study was conducted with data from the U.S. Department of Defense Serum Repository (DoDSR) cohort between 2000 and 2013 to assess associations of individual OCPs serum concentrations with PTC risk. Methods: This study included 742 histologically confirmed PTC cases (341 females, 401 males) and 742 individually-matched controls with pre-diagnostic serum samples selected from the DoDSR. Associations between categories of lipid-corrected serum concentrations of seven OCPs and PTC risk were evaluated for classical PTC and follicular PTC using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for body mass index category and military branch to compute odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Effect modification by sex, birth cohort, and race was examined. Results: There was no evidence of associations between most of the OCPs and PTC, overall or stratified by histological subtype. Overall, there was no evidence of an association between hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and PTC, but stratified by histological subtype HCB was associated with significantly increased risk of classical PTC (third tertile above the limit of detection (LOD) vs. <LOD, OR = 1.61, 95% CI, 1.09, 2.38; p for trend = 0.05) and significantly decreased risk of follicular variant PTC (third tertile above the limit of detection (LOD) vs. <LOD, OR = 0.38, 95% CI, 0.16, 0.91; p for trend = 0.04). Further stratified by sex, risk of classical PTC was higher for females (third tertile above LOD vs. <LOD, OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.23, 4.06; p-trend = 0.02) than for males (OR = 1.22, 95%CI: 0.72–2.08; p-trend = 0.56), though the test for interaction by sex was not statistically significant (p-interaction = 0.30). Similarly, β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCCH) was associated with a higher risk for classical PTC for women with concentrations ≥LOD versus <LOD (OR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.89), while the effects were null for men. There were no consistent trends when stratified by race or birth year. Conclusions: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has classified HCB and other OCPs we studied here as probable human carcinogens. Our findings of increased risks for classical PTC associated with increased concentrations of HCB and β-HCCH, which were stronger among females, should be replicated in future studies of other populations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

2020 Annual Report of Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR's ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. A cavern has an available drawdown if after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns. The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar-to-diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. A large pillar thickness between adjacent caverns should be strong enough to withstand the stresses induced by closure of the caverns due to salt creep. The first evaluation of P/D includes a calculation of the evolution of P/D after a number of full cavern drawdowns. The most common storage industry standard is to keep this value greater than 1.0, which should ensure a pillar thick enough to prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the structural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent "red flags" for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern's drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report includes an update to the baseline drawdowns for each cavern, and provides an initial assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns

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