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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Description and Demonstration of the Coupled Community Earth System Model v2 – Community Ice Sheet Model v2 (CESM2‐CISM2)

Abstract Earth system/ice‐sheet coupling is an area of recent, major Earth System Model (ESM) development. This work occurs at the intersection of glaciology and climate science and is motivated by a need for robust projections of sea‐level rise. The Community Ice Sheet Model version 2 (CISM2) is the newest component model of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). This study describes the coupling and novel capabilities of the model, including: (1) an advanced energy‐balance‐based surface mass balance calculation in the land component with downscaling via elevation classes; (2) a closed freshwater budget from ice sheet to the ocean from surface runoff, basal melting, and ice discharge; (3) dynamic land surface types; and (4) dynamic atmospheric topography. The Earth system/ice‐sheet coupling is demonstrated in a simulation with an evolving Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) under an idealized high CO 2 scenario. The model simulates a large expansion of ablation areas (where surface ablation exceeds snow accumulation) and a large increase in surface runoff. This results in an elevated freshwater flux to the ocean, as well as thinning of the ice sheet and area retreat. These GrIS changes result in reduced Greenland surface albedo, changes in the sign and magnitude of sensible and latent heat fluxes, and modified surface roughness and overall ice sheet topography. Representation of these couplings between climate and ice sheets is key for the simulation of ice and climate interactions.

Muntjewerf, Laura↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emergent Trends Complicate the Interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

Abstract Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationary climate conditions, either naturally occurring or forced by climate change. Here we investigate the emerging climatology and associated trends in drought classes defined by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product that, since 2000, has been used to inform drought management in the United States. The USDM classifies drought intensity based in part on threshold percentiles in key hydroclimate quantities. Here we assess how those USDM‐defined drought threshold percentiles have changed over the last 23 years, examining precipitation, runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and near‐surface air temperature. We also assess underlying trends in the frequency of drought classifications across the U.S. Our analysis suggests that the frequency of drought class occurrence is exceeding the threshold percentiles defined by the USDM in a number of regions in the United States, particularly in the American West, where the last 23 years have emerged as a prolonged dry period. These trends are also reflected in percentile‐based thresholds in precipitation, runoff, SM, TWS, VPD, and temperature. Our results emphasize that while the USDM appears to be accurately reflecting observed nonstationarity in the physical climate, such trends raise critical questions about whether and how drought diagnosis, classification, and monitoring should address long‐term intervals of wet and dry periods or trends.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recreating the California New Year's Flood Event of 1997 in a Regionally Refined Earth System Model

Abstract The 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme event was driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing widespread inundation in the Sacramento Valley. This study recreates the 1997 flood using the Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM‐E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding the processes causing extreme events informs practical efforts to anticipate and prepare for such events in the future, and also provides a rich context to evaluate model skill in representing extremes. Three California‐focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement of 14 km down to 3.5 km, and six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 December 1996 at 12Z, are assessed for their ability to recreate the 1997 flood. Planetary to synoptic scale atmospheric circulations and integrated vapor transport are weakly influenced by horizontal resolution refinement over California. Topography and mesoscale circulations, such as the Sierra barrier jet, are better represented at finer horizontal resolutions resulting in better estimates of storm total precipitation and storm duration snowpack changes. Traditional time‐series and causal analysis frameworks are used to examine runoff sensitivities state‐wide and above major reservoirs. These frameworks show that horizontal resolution plays a more prominent role in shaping reservoir inflows, namely the magnitude and time‐series shape, than forecast lead time, 2‐to‐4 days prior to the 1997 flood onset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Topography‐Driven Water Redistribution on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in California Through Ecosystem Responses

Abstract Lateral subsurface flow plays an essential role in sustaining the terrestrial ecosystem, but it is not explicitly represented in most Earth System Models. In this study, we implemented an explicit lateral saturated flow model into the E3SM land model (ELM). The model explicitly describes lateral flow in the saturated zone by representing, for each model grid, an idealized hillslope consisting of five hydrologically connected soil columns. We conducted three model experiments driven by 0.125° atmospheric forcing data during 1980–2015 over California using models of the default ELM, a modified version of ELM to enhance infiltration, and the model with the lateral saturated flow model. The simulated runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from the three simulations were evaluated against available observations, and the model explicitly representing lateral flow performs best. The new model produces greater gridcell‐averaged evapotranspiration especially over the mountainous regions with moderate relief and seasonally dry climates. Most importantly, it improves the modeled seasonal variations, interannual variabilities, and the recent decadal decline of TWSA. Many of these improvements can be attributed to the enhanced ecosystem resilience to droughts as demonstrated by transpiration increases caused by lateral flow. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that subsurface runoff is most sensitive to the ratio between horizontal and vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity, followed by hillslope planforms (convergent, divergent, and uniform), number of columns, and lower boundary conditions. Future work should effectively characterize hillslopes in global models and explore the long‐term influences of lateral water movement on modeled biogeochemical cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unprecedented Shifts in Hydrology Are Emerging Across California's Critical Basins: An Evaluation From 0.5 to 3.5°C

With advances in climate models and downscaling techniques, stakeholders anticipate high-resolution analysis to inform regional to local changes in water management. Here, we produce hydrologic projections from an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs) that were selected and downscaled to support California's 5th Climate Assessment. An ensemble of 19 ESMs was downscaled to a 3-km resolution across California using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach and subsequently run through two calibrated hydrology models. Although California has been extensively studied in the context of climate change, we provide the first evaluation of the warming thresholds at which hydroclimate metrics demonstrate statistically significant shifts. We show that present-day to near-term warming levels in Klamath and Northern Sierra Nevada basins, which serve as a critical source of water for California, show statistically significant decreases in snowfall and peak snowpack and associated decreases in summer snowmelt and runoff. More generally, shifts in these hydroclimate metrics occur for intermediate elevation basins ranging from 1,315 to 1,455 m (4,314.3–4,773.6 ft), while the warming level of emergence is delayed for lower and higher elevation basins. We also find that several basins already demonstrate significant increases in 5- to 100-year runoff intensities, primarily due to the increasing influence of precipitation falling as rain. Hydroclimate metrics with trends that demonstrate near-term warming levels of emergence are reflected in reanalysis-based observations, suggesting California is entering a fundamentally different hydroclimate regime. While this will likely stress California's water management, the research provided can support when to implement adaptation efforts.

Bass, B. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Un↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO 2 -enriched climate

The global monsoon is characterised by transitions between pronounced dry and wet seasons, affecting food security for two-thirds of the world’s population. Rising atmospheric CO 2 influences the terrestrial hydrological cycle through climate-radiative and vegetation-physiological forcings. How these two forcings affect the seasonal intensity and characteristics of monsoonal precipitation and runoff is poorly understood. Here we use four Earth System Models to show that in a CO 2 -enriched climate, radiative forcing changes drive annual precipitation increases for most monsoon regions. Further, vegetation feedbacks substantially affect annual precipitation in North and South America and Australia monsoon regions. In the dry season, runoff increases over most monsoon regions, due to stomatal closure-driven evapotranspiration reductions and associated atmospheric circulation change. Our results imply that flood risks may amplify in the wet season. However, the lengthening of the monsoon rainfall season and reduced evapotranspiration will shorten the water resources scarcity period for most monsoon regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Diverse Land across the Continental United States

The current methods for designing hydrological infrastructure rely on precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency curves. However, they cannot accurately predict flooding caused by snowmelt or rain-on-snow events, potentially leading to underdesigned infrastructure and property damage. To address these issues, next-generation intensity-duration-frequency (NG-IDF) curves have been developed for the open condition, characterizing water available for runoff from rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow. However, they lack consideration of land use land cover (LULC) factors, which can significantly affect runoff processes. We address this limitation by expanding open area NG-IDF dataset to include eight vegetated LULCs over the continental United States, including forest (deciduous, evergreen, mixed), shrub, grass, pasture, crop, and wetland. This NG-IDF 2.0 dataset offers a comprehensive analysis of hydrological extreme events and their associated drivers under different LULCs at a continental scale. It will serve as a useful resource for improving standard design practices and aiding in the assessment of infrastructure design risks. Additionally, it provides useful insights into how changes in LULC impact flooding magnitude, mechanisms, timing, and snow water supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monthly hydropower generation data for Western Canada to support Western-US interconnect power system studies

Hydroelectric power generation in Western Canada significantly contributes to power grid operations of the North American Western Interconnection through substantial generation, some of which is exported to the United States (U.S.). However, the lack of publicly available hydropower generation datasets poses challenges for future market projections and resource adequacy evaluations. We present a simulation-based monthly power system model-ready hydropower generation dataset for 110 facilities in British Columbia and Alberta from 1981 to 2019. These monthly hydropower generation estimates are developed from integrated hydrologic model simulations of runoff and reservoir-operated streamflow, followed by scaling that considers diversion inflow constraints based on hydropower water license information. To address the lack of comparable hydropower generation records, we conduct step-by-step evaluations for simulated runoff, regulated streamflow, and hydropower generation using available observations or estimates. The presented hydropower dataset aims to enhance the representation of hydropower resources in Western Canada, supporting power grid system studies for the Western Interconnection of the U.S. and Canada.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966–2005) and future (2011–2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. This study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the hydrological response of a headwater-dominated catchment by analysis of distributed surface–subsurface interactions

Abstract We computationally explore the relationship between surface–subsurface exchange and hydrological response in a headwater-dominated high elevation, mountainous catchment in East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. In order to isolate the effect of surface–subsurface exchange on the hydrological response, we compare three model variations that differ only in soil permeability. Traditional methods of hydrograph analysis that have been developed for headwater catchments may fail to properly characterize catchments, where catchment response is tightly coupled to headwater inflow. Analyzing the spatially distributed hydrological response of such catchments gives additional information on the catchment functioning. Thus, we compute hydrographs, hydrological indices, and spatio-temporal distributions of hydrological variables. The indices and distributions are then linked to the hydrograph at the outlet of the catchment. Our results show that changes in the surface–subsurface exchange fluxes trigger different flow regimes, connectivity dynamics, and runoff generation mechanisms inside the catchment, and hence, affect the distributed hydrological response. Further, changes in surface–subsurface exchange rates lead to a nonlinear change in the degree of connectivity—quantified through the number of disconnected clusters of ponding water—in the catchment. Although the runoff formation in the catchment changes significantly, these changes do not significantly alter the aggregated streamflow hydrograph. This hints at a crucial gap in our ability to infer catchment function from aggregated signatures. We show that while these changes in distributed hydrological response may not always be observable through aggregated hydrological signatures, they can be quantified through the use of indices of connectivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of floodwater redistribution from Lake Nasser could recharge Egypt’s aquifers and mitigate its excessive floods

Extreme precipitation periods, possibly related to climate change, over the Nile River source areas caused flooding in Sudan and excess runoff reaching Lake Nasser in Egypt in 1998–2002 and 2019–2022. Excess water from the 1st event (25.5 × 10 9 m 3 ) was channeled to depressions within the plateau west of the Nile Valley, forming the Tushka Lakes, where it was left to evaporate, a fate that awaits the 53.5 × 10 9 m 3 from the 2nd event while the underlying fossil Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System is being depleted (–0.98 × 10 9 m 3 /yr). We simulated release scenarios of excess Lake Nasser waters (53.5 × 10 9 m 3 ) to proximal lowlands; preference was given to the scenario that recharged the aquifer through infiltration (74.3%) and minimized losses to evaporation (20.1%) and surface runoff (5.6%). Findings serve as an example of adaptations that replace catastrophic consequences of climate change with beneficial and sustainable development opportunities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrodialysis and nitrate reduction (EDNR) to enable distributed ammonia manufacturing from wastewaters

Underutilized wastewaters containing dilute levels of reactive nitrogen (Nr) can help rebalance the nitrogen cycle. This study describes electrodialysis and nitrate reduction (EDNR), a reactive electrochemical separation architecture that combines catalysis and separations to remediate nitrate and ammonium-polluted wastewaters while recovering ammonia. By engineering operating parameters (e.g., background electrolyte, applied potential, electrolyte flow rate), we achieved high recovery and conversion of Nr in both simulated and real wastewaters. The EDNR process demonstrated long-term robustness and up-concentration that recovered >100 mM ammonium fertilizer solution from agricultural runoff that contained 8.2 mM Nr. EDNR is the first reported process to our knowledge that remediates dilute real wastewater and recovers ammonia from multiple Nr pollutants, with an energy consumption (245 MJ per kg NH 3 –N in simulated wastewater, 920 MJ per kg NH 3 –N in agricultural runoff) on par with the state-of-the-art. Demonstrated first at proof-of-concept and engineered to technology readiness level (TRL) 4–5, EDNR shows great promise for distributed wastewater treatment and sustainable ammonia manufacturing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw

We used a model for permafrost hydrology informed by detailed measurements of soil ice content to better understand the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. Our spatially resolved simulations of a well-characterized site in polygonal tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, agree well with multiple types of observations in the current climate. Projections indicate 63 cm of bulk subsidence from 2006 to 2100 in the strong-warming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate. Permafrost thaw as measured by the increase in active layer thickness (ALT)—the thickness of the soil layer that thaws each summer—is accelerated by subsidence, but the effect is relatively small. The ALT increases from the current-day value of approximately 50 cm to approximately 180 cm by 2100 when subsidence is included compared to about 160 cm when it is neglected. In these simulations, previously identified positive feedbacks between subsidence and thaw are self-limiting on decadal time frames because landscape runoff and increasing evapotranspiration result in drier tundra with weaker surface/atmosphere coupling. These results for a tundra site that is representative of large swathes of the Alaska North Slope suggest that subsidence is unlikely to lead to abrupt thaw over large areas. However, subsidence does have significant effects on the hydrology of polygonal tundra. Specifically, subsidence increases landscape runoff, which helps maintain streamflow in the face of increased evapotranspiration but also causes drier tundra conditions that could have deleterious effects on sensitive Arctic wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Greater vulnerability of snowmelt-fed river thermal regimes to a warming climate

While the advective flux from cool melt runoff can be a significant source of thermal energy to mountainous rivers, it has been a much less addressed process in river temperature modeling and thus our understanding is limited with respect to the spatiotemporal effect of melt on river temperatures at the watershed scale. In particular, the extent and magnitude of the melt cooling effect in the context of a warming climate are not yet well understood. To address this knowledge gap, we improved a coupled hydrology and stream temperature modeling system, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model and River Basin Model (DHSVM-RBM), to account for the thermal effect of cool snowmelt runoff on river temperatures. The model was applied to a snow-fed river basin in the Pacific Northwest to evaluate the responses of snow, hydrology, stream temperatures, and potential fish growth to future climates. Historical simulations suggest that snowmelt can notably reduce the basin-wide peak summer temperatures particularly at high-elevation tributaries, while the thermal impacts of melt water can persist through the summer along the mainstem. Ensemble climate projections suggested that a warming climate will decrease basin mean peak snow and summer streamflow by 92% and 60% by the end of the century. Due to the compounded influences of warmer temperatures, lower flows and diminished cooling from melt, rivers reaches in high elevation snow-dominated areas were projected to be most vulnerable to future climate change, showing the largest increases in summer peak temperatures. As a result, thermal habitat used by anadromous Pacific salmon was projected to exhibit substantially lower growth potential during summer in future. These results have demonstrated the necessity of accounting for snowmelt influence on stream temperature modeling in mountainous watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flood Estimation under Snowmelt and Rain-on-Snow Processes in Alaska: A Military Installation Perspective

Accurate flood estimation in snow-dominated and high-latitude regions remains challenging due to complex interactions among rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow (ROS) processes, which are not captured in conventional precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves. This study evaluates the Next-Generation IDF (NG-IDF) framework, an extension of PREC-IDF that incorporates total water available for runoff (precipitation minus changes in snow water equivalent), in two contrasting Alaskan watersheds of Department of Defense (DoD) significance: the Little Chena River Basin (LCRB) in interior Alaska, a tributary of the Chena River that flows through Fort Wainwright and near Eielson Air Force Base, and the Upper Ship Creek Basin (USCB), which drains Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage. Using long-term SNOTEL observations and event-based rainfall-runoff modeling, NG-IDF and PREC-IDF flood estimates were compared against observation-based flood frequency analyses. Results show that NG-IDF consistently reduces flood-estimation bias by 15–20% relative to PREC-IDF, particularly for snowmelt- and ROS-dominated events. In the interior LCRB, permafrost conditions can substantially amplify flood responses during snowmelt events, an effect not explicitly represented in standard design tools. These findings demonstrate that NG-IDF provides a more physically consistent and transferable framework for flood estimation in cold regions, with potential relevance to mission-critical DoD installation resilience. Projected increases in ROS frequency and permafrost degradation across Alaska further emphasize the need to integrate physics-based hydrologic models that explicitly represent snow and permafrost processes to enhance design resilience and operational readiness for military and other critical infrastructure.

Yan, Hongxiang (ORCID:000000022387403X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of CMIP6 Streamflow in the Arctic

Earth system models (ESMs) serve as the primary basis for projecting future streamflow changes, but they are biased in terms of the their ability to reproduce historical observations of streamflow. Rigorous downscaling and bias-correction procedures, which are time-consuming and introduce uncertainties, are commonly used to address these biases in streamflow or runoff. However, the applicable limits of streamflow projections remain largely untested through direct comparisons with observations. In this work, we compare historical streamflow time series observations with a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ESMs to assess the space and time scales at which each ESM represents historic streamflow observations. We focus our analysis on streamflow across the Arctic given the higher degree of warming experienced over this region, underscoring its importance for understanding the future changes. A series of metrics—volume, seasonality, extreme capturing streamflow variability, drought, and flooding is tested to assess ESM simulation skill for total events and overall distributions. Our results indicate that although improvements are necessary in ESM runoff and streamflow projections, the use of temporal averaging and targeting the best-fit model for comparison to observations when a suite of ESMs is considered can provide robust streamflow projections. Moreover, this work provides a basis for contextualizing the limits of ESM applicability for studies aiming to assess streamflow in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗