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DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and Simulation Development Pathways to Accelerating KP-FHR Licensing (Final Report)

This project assembles a strong U.S. industry and national laboratory team to complete scope of work. Kairos Power (KP), headquartered in Alameda, CA, is the leader of this effort and has built an internal team of highly competent engineers and managers with extensive combined experience in nuclear power, conventional power, product development, and licensing. INL, ANL, and LANL bring unique capabilities in advanced reactor R&D and licensing. The project funding source is the result of FOA No. 0001817, U. S. Industry Opportunities for Advanced Nuclear Technology Development. There has been on-going work and this Access Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) will cover the remaining work scope of FOA 0001817. KP is implementing innovative strategies that can reduce the cost and accelerate the initial demonstration of the Kairos Power Fluoride-salt-cooled, High-temperature Reactor (KP-FHR) to meet the needs of the U.S. electricity market by 2030. Licensing of the KP-FHR could be significantly accelerated using advanced computing methods with sufficient predictive capabilities to be able to extrapolate potential response of the structure in different scenarios. However, currently used computational methods heavily rely on empirical fits and cannot be used for extrapolation. The scope focuses on improving the modeling capability in the NEAMS Grizzly structural mechanics code and the NEAMS BISON fuel performance code and the NEAMS SAM systems analysis code. This work leverages the expertise and know-how gathered in three DOE National Laboratories – INL, ANL, and LANL.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

SSR APPLIED – Automated Power Plants: Intelligent, Efficient and Digitised (V.2)

This report describes work undertaken during the SSR APPLIED project. The focus of the project has been on the development of digital twins to de-risk licensing of improved operating and maintenance practices. The operation of a bespoke flowing separate effects molten salt loop at ANL, with realistic temperature gradients, will provide invaluable data for computer codes validation. Three digital twins of aspects of the SSR-W have been successfully developed using ANL expertise and software. These digital twins have demonstrated optimization of the fuel cycle, the ability to model transients using an integrated coupled neutronic – thermal-hydraulic model with a model of the fuel expansion feedback so important to the inherent safety of the SSR-W. Advanced machine learning techniques have been developed and demonstrated for optimization of heat exchanger operation and maintenance.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Community Based Data of Uranium Adsorption onto Quartz

This data upload includes a compilation of experiments for quantifying uranium adsorption onto quartz. The provided .csv file has been compiled from the literature in a findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable (FAIR) data format. This was accomplished using the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Surface Complexation Database Converter (SCDC) code written in the R programming language (free licensing available at https://ipo.llnl.gov/technologies/software/llnl-surface-complexation-database-converter-scdc). This constitutes all current data compiled on uranium-quartz interactions in the L-SCIE (LLNL Surface Complexation/Ion Exchange) database (as of 02/28/2022). This data was used to develop surface complexation models that fit the global community dataset (https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.1c07109). The FAIR-formatted dataset also enables the implementation of alternative machine-learning approaches that can be explored in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accurate models of the added mass force of a uniform random distribution of spherical particles or bubbles

The added mass force resulting from the acceleration of a body in a fluid is of fundamental and practical interest in dispersed multiphase flows. Euler–Lagrange (EL) and Euler–Euler (EE) simulations require closure terms for the added mass force in order to accurately couple the conserved variables between phases. Presently, a more thorough understanding of the added mass force in a multi-particle system is developed based on potential flow resulting in a resistance matrix formulation analogous to Stokesian dynamics. This formulation is then used to generate a dataset of added mass resistance matrices for large systems of randomly generated particles. This methodology is used to create a volume fraction corrected binary model for predicting the added mass force in large systems as well as generate statistics of the added mass force in such systems. This work provides clarification to the theory of the added mass force for particle clouds, and modelling options that may be implemented in existing EL and EE codes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

2024 Electric Vehicles at Scale Semiannual Stakeholder Meeting

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Electric Vehicles at Scale Lab Consortium (EVs@Scale Lab Consortium) is accelerating research to support the establishment of a secure and scalable national network of charging infrastructure. This network will be critical to support tens of millions of light-, medium-, and heavy-duty EVs on American roads by 2030. The EVs@Scale Lab Consortium brings together national laboratories and key stakeholders to conduct infrastructure research and development (R&D) that advances innovations in, and sets unified standards for, high-power and wireless charging. The effort will also develop technologies to integrate vehicle charging with the power grid, and develop cybersecurity measures to protect drivers, vehicles, equipment, and the grid. The first hybrid EVs@Scale Lab Consortium Semiannual Stakeholder Meeting was held at ANL on September 27-28, 2023, to identify research, development, and deployment needs to accelerate technology development for electric vehicles at scale and explore opportunities for collaboration across government, academia, and industry.

advanced charging and grid interface technologies↗

DOE OSTI2019

Report on FY19 Testing in Support of Grade 91 Core Block Code Case

This report summarizes the experimental results performed in FY 2019 on grade 91 (Gr. 91) steel (heat 30176) in support of Gr. 91 core block code cases. Mean stress fatigue testing was completed, and the evaluation led to the conclusion that mean stress correction on the fatigue curve in Division 5 for Gr. 91 is not recommended. A specialized test was designed and performed to validate the methodology proposed for a softening factor to support the extension of the elastic—perfectly plastic (EPP) strain limits design rules to Gr. 91. Nine simplified model tests (SMTs) were completed using the newly developed two-bar SMT (TBSMT) and single-bar SMT (SBSMT) techniques. The results demonstrate the validity of the testing technique, and the experimental basis of the development of the integrated EPP plus SMT creepfatigue evaluation methodology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

The General Atomic and Molecular Electronic Structure System (GAMESS): Novel Methods on Novel Architectures

The primary focus of GAMESS over the last 5 years has been the development of new high-performance codes that are able to take effective and efficient advantage of the most advanced computer architectures, both CPU and accelerators. These efforts include employing density fitting and fragmentation methods to reduce the high scaling of well-correlated (e.g., coupled-cluster) methods as well as developing novel codes that can take optimal advantage of graphical processing units and other modern accelerators. Because accurate wave functions can be very complex, an important new functionality in GAMESS is the quasi-atomic orbital analysis, an unbiased approach to the understanding of covalent bonds embedded in the wave function. Finally, best practices for the maintenance and distribution of GAMESS are also discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

FY26 Progress on Demonstration of a Multiphysics Steady State Capability for Modeling Core Radial Expansion in SFRs

Under the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program, an integrated multiphysics approach is being developed to model the core bowing phenomena important to liquid metal-cooled fast reactors. Core bowing is an important passive safety mechanism in liquid metal-cooled fast reactors and involves multiphysics effects including radiation transport, fluid flow, heat transfer, and mechanical response to temperature and flux gradients. This report summarizes recent progress on developing a multiphysics, MOOSE-based workflow to predict core bowing and associated reactivity feedback. Significant new capabilities in the reactor physics code Griffin - sodium backfill and pin power reconstruction for deformed geometries - were applied in this effort. This year’s work included verification, code comparisons, sensitivity studies, and coupled demonstrations that advance the state of MOOSE-based core bowing workflow. Griffin’s sodium backfill capability was verified by demonstrating that its automated treatment of geometry expansion and material-density updates reproduces manual calculations exactly, confirming solid mass conservation and proper coolant backfilling in expanded geometries. Reconstructed pin powers were compared for Griffin’s ductheterogeneous and ring-heterogeneous treatments in single-, seven-, and nineteen-assembly cases, with best agreement observed in lower-leakage configurations and the duct-heterogeneous approach offering substantially lower computational cost. Thermal-hydraulic sensitivity sensitivities showed that MOOSE SCM, SAM, and CFD are expected to produce similar deformation predictions despite variances in their temperature predictions, and that explicit treatment of inter-assembly flow becomes increasingly important as gap flow rate increases. Finally, coupled demonstrations on small multi-assembly configurations using Griffin, MOOSE Solid Mechanics, MOOSE SCM, and Heat Conduction produced physically consistent reactivity feedback from thermal expansion and bowing. The coupled demonstrations simulated grid plate expansion as well as resultant core bowing at full power conditions. Simplifications were made in current workflow, namely the assumption of instantaneous full power conditions following hot zero power, and pre-expanding the Griffin geometry axially due to lack of an axial fuel pin expansion model and temperature feedback to Griffin.

Wozniak, Nicholas↗

DOE OSTI2022

In-situ thermomechanical measurements during burst testing of Zr claddings using digital image correlation and infrared thermography techniques

Burst testing has long been a relied-on method for assessing fuel cladding materials in light-water reactoraccident scenarios. However, burst testing historically provided minimal in-situ observations beyond a few thermocouple readings, pressure from transducers, and post-test deformation measurements. Acquisition of full cladding thermomechanical data throughout a burst test would be invaluable to fuel system qualification, material model development and fuel performance code validation, such as the BISON fuel performance code. Recently, methodologies for simultaneously applying 2-dimensional digital image correlation and infrared thermography techniques to quantify the relationship between temperature, internal cladding pressure, and deformation during burst testing were developed. This work details results from the application of these techniques to burst testing of Zircaloy-4 cladding segments subjected to loss-of-coolant accident transients in an air environment. Two types of tests were performed with: (a) cladding segments connected to a fixed pressure reservoir as well as (b) closed systems where internal pressure increased during transients. In-situ thermomechanical measurements including strain and thermal gradient data are presented, demonstrating the effectiveness of applying combined surface measurement techniques to burst testing

Bell, Sam↗

DOE OSTI2024

New systems in MOOSE

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) serves as a common library of classes between applications developed for advanced reactor analysis, fusion device engineering, spent fuel cask analysis, geochemistry studies, among other fields. These applications drive the development of the framework to meet their needs. Systems in MOOSE group capabilities that share a common purpose and generally common code. They can be leveraged by all downstream applications, providing extensive code re-use and shared maintenance. They facilitate the discovery by new users of the classes meeting at least partially their needs, and offer the same opportunities for customization as other systems. The addition of a new system to MOOSE opens new ways of solving or discretizing nonlinear problems, of performing distributed postprocessing, and a plethora of other needs. While new systems can be introduced in downstream applications rather than at the framework level, the framework team monitors common needs across the community and often triggers their addition. Documentation, training material, development needs can be centralized, limiting duplicated work across the community. The last three years have seen a large expansion in the capabilities of MOOSE. The supporting role of the framework in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has created numerous feature requests to support neutronics, thermal hydraulics, computational fluid dynamics and thermo-mechanics simulations in the Griffin, SAM, Pronghorn and Bison applications respectively. Similarly, laboratory-directed research and development (LDRD) projects in additive manufacturing, high-Reynolds flow simulations, structure optimization also necessitate an expansion of the framework capabilities. This summary reports on the new systems created in MOOSE, their design, their capabilities and some of the relevant interfaces.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

SAM Code Enhancements for Fission Product Tracking of Noble Gases and Metals in MSRs

This report documents fiscal year 2026 enhancements to the System Analysis Module (SAM) for modeling fission product transport in liquid-fueled molten salt reactors (MSRs). The work advances three principal areas: noble gas transport, noble metal deposition, and user interface improvements. The noble gas transport capability integrates drift-flux gas transport, Henry’s law two-film interphase mass transfer with pressure-based nucleation suppression, Knudsen-regime pore diffusion into porous graphite with a conjugate salt-graphite interface constraint, built-in material properties, five Sherwood-number mass transfer correlations including three derived from high-fidelity NekRS simulations, and xenon-135 reactivity feedback through SAM’s point-kinetics model. This work also presents a comprehensive verification test suite, including new analytically verified cases for pressure-dependent onset of interphase gas transfer in a stagnant vertical pipe, a postulated FLiBe-graphite Xe extraction permeator, a gravity riser with a fission-product source, and a descending pipe with gas redissolution driven by hydrostatic pressure. A machine learning framework for bubble rise velocity prediction in molten salt systems is developed and benchmarked on molten-salt and diverse aqueous bubble datasets. The best-performing fine-tuned transfer-learning networks achieve an 82% reduction in RMSE relative to the Clift correlation, and is implemented directly in SAM. The noble metal transport capability is developed, including a liquid-wall deposition model and a gas-surface flotation mechanism that transfers insoluble particles entrained by sparging gas to wetted structures. Verification tests and demonstration cases cover the surface deposition, flotation efflux, and flotation shedding. Finally, a new [SpeciesTransport] input structure replaces positional global vectors with selfcontained, order-independent, named species blocks, simplifies the specification of multiphase species and decay chains, and remains fully compatible with existing SAM input files. Together, these developments improve the physical fidelity, verification basis, and usability of SAM for system-level analyses of fissionproduct behavior in MSRs.

Mui, Travis (ORCID:0000000303736470)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic model of electron transport through and over non-linear barriers

Tunneling barriers are an essential component of electron sources, sensors, detectors, and vacuum nanoelectronics, and a pivotal factor in their performance, but the barriers themselves routinely depart from the analytic models used to model their behavior. Here, a new formalism is developed to analytically and accurately model emission through and over barriers associated with depletion layers, nanotip barriers, and MIM structures. The transmission probability for depletion layer and metal-insulator-metal (MIM) and metaloxide-semiconductor (MOS) barriers is accurately modeled as the electron energy exceeds the barrier height using approaches designed for rapid implementation demanded by simulation codes, and extensible to general barriers. The models supersede conventional thermal and field models in depletion and MIM/MOS barrier studies. Thermal-field methods are used to treat the transmission probability, and shape factor methods to treat the tunneling factor. Analytic formulae for current density are obtained. The methods ease device simulation and characterization of current-voltage relations for emerging technologically interesting barriers with better accuracy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Radiological Performance Modeling: Platform Comparison

Zapadnoe Uranium Mill Tailings Site, Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant Ukraine: Two exposure scenarios were utilized to develop performance assessment models in GoldSim and NORMALYSA. The first scenario is an onsite worker exposed to radioactivity through external ground irradiation as well as radon and radioactive dust inhalation. The second being an offsite Resident 300 years after institutional control exposed through the ingestion of garden vegetables irrigated by contaminated ground water, ingestion of fish from Konoplyanka River, and agricultural activities in contaminated garden. NORMALYSA utilizes a modular interface to connect extensive pre-created modules to develop contaminant transport and risk assessment models for safety assessments and performance assessments at NORM and legacy sites. Developed by Facilia AB, the program was tested with the creation of the Zapadnoe model under the International Atomic Energy Agency MODARIA Il Working Group 1 (WG1). Default values are provided for input parameters where site specific data and distributions lack. Probabilistic simulations and inputs are limited to parameters with assigned Gaussian probability functions. Similar results for transient worker inhalation dose were found in comparison with the Zapadnoe GoldSim model. However, the NORMALYSA model has results larger by an order of magnitude for external radiation in the transient worker and for aquatic food ingestion, inhalation, and garden food ingestion to the resident. Performance Assessment Modeling: Radiological performance models promote good management and support in remediation and environmental decision making by optimizing radioactive waste disposal site performance. a performance assessment model of the Zapadnoe uranium mill tailings site and a model for calculating authorized limits at Los Alamos National Laboratory are created to demonstrate and highlight the respective capabilities of three modeling platforms: GoldSim, NORMALYSA, and RESRAD-Onsite. GoldSim is a general-purpose modeling platform with the ability to simulate site-specific FT radionuclide transport and risk assessment using a graphical interface to create and link elements that act as indivisible building blocks of the model. The Zapadnoe performance assessment model created in GoldSim is composed of input parameters collected from site specific parameters from WG1 as well as standard assumptions seen in the Generic PA Model from Neptune and Company. The multivariate Zapadnoe simulation contains both deterministic and probabilistic simulation capabilities with the ability to quantitatively represent the uncertainty and associated risks of the site via the Monte Carlo simulation method. Model parameters, documentation, and assumptions are built directly into the model creating a transparent, reproducible, and more purposeful site specific model. To demonstrate this, an ingestion of water pathway was included in addition to the exposure pathways included in the NORMALYSA model. GoldSim offers a wide variety of probability distributions to choose from as well as many tools to visualize the uncertainty of the models and explore which pathways and radionuclides dominate dose. In contrast to the NORMALYSA model, the GoldSim model uses dynamic simulation to calculate tritium concentrations. Authorized limits support the evaluation of radiological health effects from radionuclides present in bulk contaminated soil in order to assist in the process of clearing land for release under different uses. Calculations of authorized limits in RESRAD-Onsite and GoldSim models support the evaluation for 15 radionuclides using a residential exposure scenario, indoor and outdoor inhalation of dust and vapor phase radionuclides (tritium), incidental soil ingestion, and ingestion grown fruits and Vegetables. RESRAD-Onsite, developed by Argonne National Laboratory is a dedicated computer code for calculating radiation doses and cancer risks to an individual located on top of radioactively contaminated soils. It can also be used to provide guidelines for deriving radionuclide soil levels corresponding to a specific dose criterion. The menu driven user interface facilitates selection of radionuclides and soil concentrations, as well as defines parameter values related to materials, environmental factors, and exposure pathways. The program contains radionuclide-specific data such as dose conversion factors and risk coefficients, as well as soil-water partition coefficients and transfer factors for biotic media. The GoldSim model successfully emulates the RESRAD-Onsite code using identical radiological decay and ingrowth factors, radiation dose conversion factors, and other input parameters. DE EEDE ETS Each model supports dynamic modeling of radionuclide ingrowth and decay over time, and integrate this capability with the transport of radionuclides in the environment via processes such as advection and/or diffusion in fluids, or within porous solid media, The applicability of each program is heavily dependent on project context. In the context of developing Authorized Limits, RESRAD-Onsite may be a more desirable option as it was developed for this particular application. For simple disposal or legacy sites or sites that do not need site-specific model structure, NORMALYSA may be a desirable modeling platform, GoldSim can be used to model any problem for which RESRAD or NORMALYSA is applicable, but its strength lies in its flexibility, analytical, and probabilistic capabilities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automated Strain Construction for Biosynthetic Pathway Screening in Yeast

Automation accelerates the Design-Build-Test-Learn (DBTL) cycle for synthetic biology; however, most strain construction pipelines lack robotic integration. Here, in this study, we present the workflow design and source code for a modular, integrated protocol that automates the Build step in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We programmed the Hamilton Microlab VANTAGE to integrate off-deck hardware via its central robotic arm, enabling automated steps that increased throughput to 2,000 transformations per week. We developed a user interface with the Hamilton VENUS software to support on-demand parameter customization. As a proof of concept, we screened a gene library in an engineered yeast strain producing verazine, a key intermediate in the biosynthesis of steroidal alkaloids. Our pipeline rapidly identified pathway bottlenecks and genes that enhanced verazine production by 2.0- to 5-fold. This technical note provides resources for synthetic biologists designing yeast workflows for biofoundries to screen libraries for pathway discovery/optimization, combinatorial biosynthesis, and protein engineering.

automation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Center of Excellence Collaboration Projects: Second Wave

The NEAMS program aims to develop an integrated multi-physics simulation capability “pellet-to-plant” for the design and analysis of future generations of nuclear power plants. In particular, the Reactor Product Line code suite's multi-resolution hierarchy is being designed to ultimately span the full range of length and time scales present in relevant reactor design and safety analyses, as well as scale from desktop to petaflop computing platforms. In particular the NEAMS program is supporting the development of novel thermal-hydraulic codes. The Center of Excellence for Thermal Fluids Application in Nuclear Energy, launched in 2018, has as its key goals to serve as a front door to industry. The Center of Excellence for Thermal Fluids Applications in Nuclear Energy has recently launched a program to start collaborative efforts between the laboratories and industry with the objective of stimulating cooperation and increasing adoption of T/H tools developed under NEAMS by the industry-at-large. In particular, two industry partners agreed to participate in a second wave of short-term collaborations aimed at demonstrating the value of NEAMS tools to their designs. These are Framatome and TerraPower who proposed projects related to LWR (Light Water Reactor) and MSFR (Molten Salt Fast Reactor) designs respectively. In this report we present the results of these two collaborations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and Experimental Validation of a Heat Transfer Model for Spilled Molten Salt Pools

A spill of radionuclide-bearing molten salt is one of the major postulated events that needs to be analyzed for liquid fluorine salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) or molten salt reactor licensing purposes. In this postulated event, radioactive source term materials (RSTMs) in the molten salt are discharged from the reactor vessel to the reactor building. The release of RSTMs from the spilled salt pool to the gas space in the reactor building is expected to be controlled by the cooling behavior of the spilled salt, including the growth and shrinkage of the solid crust on the surface of the spilled salt pool. This paper presents a simulation model for spilled salt pool heat transfer and validation efforts. The validation data come from two molten salt spill tests that were performed recently: the PELE2 test by the Rapid Experimental Laboratory of Kairos Power LLC (KP) and the Argonne salt cooling test conducted by Argonne National Laboratory. The former was a large-scale test involving kilograms of molten spilled FLiNaK salt, and the latter was a relatively smaller-scale test targeting various processes associated with a salt spill event. Both tests generated valuable data sets that can be used to assess salt cooling and validate evaluation models. This paper provides a new one-dimensional model that can simulate the cooling process of a spilled salt pool as well as the thermal responses of heat structures, such as the stainless steel liner and the concrete below the salt. The model has been implemented as part of KP-SAM code, which is a branch of the systems code SAM specific to KP FHR. In conclusion, the simulation results of the model are compared with the data of the PELE2 and Argonne tests, and reasonable agreements are observed between the model and test data.

heat transfer model↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying deformation during Zry-4 burst testing: a comparison of BISON and a combined in-situ digital image correlation and infrared thermography method

The development and verification of nuclear fuel-cladding performance codes require extensive testing to establish empirical correlations, necessitating more accelerated testing methods that can replace large validation studies. Here, in the present work, a technique was developed and implemented to experimentally quantify the relationship between temperature, cladding internal pressure, and strain in-situ during a burst test, with the specific aim of generating data for code validation and model refinement. Digital image correlation was used to measure hoop, axial, and radial strain, and infrared thermography to quantify axial temperature gradients. Several key experimental modifications to traditional LOCA burst testing were necessary, but are shown to effectively have little impact on burst temperatures. The time/temperature dependent pressure and time/spatially dependent thermal gradient data were used with BISON to simulate cladding burst and strain rates. Although the measured DIC strains reach appreciable amounts at slightly lower temperatures than BISON simulated strains, there is good agreement between the measured and simulated strains in terms of magnitude and rates leading up to burst. However, in the few seconds prior to and during burst, the BISON simulated strains are significantly lower than the measured strains, indicating the potential for model improvement. The combined experiment and simulation technique may be applied to any new cladding concept to accelerate fuel qualification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Operational Energy Life Cycle Data Development for the National Institute of Standards And Technology (NIST) Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) Neutral Environmental Software Tool (NEST)

For this analysis, regionalized life cycle assessment (LCA) results for environmental impacts (using the Tool for Reduction and Assessment of Chemicals and Other Environmental Impacts [TRACI] 2.1) and cumulative energy demand (using the Federal Life Cycle Analysis Commons Elementary Flow List [FEDEFL] Inventory Methods v1.0.0) were evaluated for the production and utilization of electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and propane as commodities within residential and commercial buildings. These results can used as a framework for future research into net zero, high-performance buildings, such as done here for the Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) database by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Engineering Laboratory. The geographical results were assigned to each United States (U.S.) Zone Improvement Plan (ZIP) code based on the ZIP code location and corresponding Balancing Authority Area, natural gas basin, and Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs). Additionally, previously developed models were utilized to develop future life cycle profiles. Projections were based on data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022 through 2050 (AEO 2022). Electricity LCA models were updated based on AEO 2022 projected annual generation mixes, while the natural gas baseline model was updated based on projected shares of natural gas types (conventional, shale, tight, and coalbed methane). Projections of crude oil production rates and export rates were applied to the petroleum baseline model in five-year increments to investigate their effects on the life cycle profile of fuel oil and propane. While only 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) with climate carbon feedback (CC-FB) and Cumulative Energy Demand are shown in Section 4: Results, the complete results, including Acidification Potential, Eutrophication Potential, Freshwater Ecotoxicity Potential, GWP-100 without inclusion of CC-FB, Human Health Impacts Potentials (Cancer, Non-Cancer), Ozone Depletion Potential, Particulate Matter Formation Potential, and Photochemical Smog Formation Potential, are tabulated for each ZIP code in the Excel worksheets that accompany this analysis. For the Excel spreadsheet tools associated with this report, please go to https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=f8890fac-be55-44ac-aaa9-e2888bfabe93

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗