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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Neural Networks to Find the Optimal Forcing for Offsetting the Anthropogenic Climate Change Effects

Abstract Of great relevance to climate engineering is the systematic relationship between the radiative forcing to the climate system and the response of the system, a relationship often represented by the linear response function (LRF) of the system. However, estimating the LRF often becomes an ill-posed inverse problem due to high-dimensionality and nonunique relationships between the forcing and response. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to address the ill-posed inverse problem through regularization and sparse system fitting. Here, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for regularized inversion. The CNN is trained using the surface temperature responses from a set of Green’s function perturbation experiments as imagery input data together with data sample densification. The resulting CNN model can infer the forcing pattern responsible for the temperature response from out-of-sample forcing scenarios. This promising proof of concept suggests a possible strategy for estimating the optimal forcing to negate certain undesirable effects of climate change. The limited success of this effort underscores the challenges of solving an inverse problem for a climate system with inherent nonlinearity. Significance Statement Predicting the climate response for a given climate forcing is a direct problem, while inferring the forcing for a given desired climate response is often an inverse, ill-posed, problem, posing a new challenge to the climate community. This study makes the first attempt to infer the radiative forcing for a given target pattern of global surface temperature response using a deep learning approach. The resulting deeply trained convolutional neural network inversion model shows promise in capturing the forcing pattern corresponding to a given surface temperature response, with a significant implication on the design of an optimal solar radiation management strategy for curbing global warming. This study also highlights the technical challenges that future research should prioritize in seeking feasible solutions to the inverse climate problem.

Ren, Huiying↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and flight-testing of modular autonomous cultivation systems for biological plastics upcycling aboard the ISS

Cultivation of microorganisms in space has enormous potential to enable in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) Here, we develop an autonomous payload with fully programmable serial passaging and sample preservation, termed the Modular Open Biological Platform (MOBP), and flight-test the MOBP aboard the International Space Station (ISS) by conducting enzymatic and microbial plastics upcycling experiments. The MOBP is a compact, modular bioreactor system that allows for sustained microbial growth via automated media transfers, such as those for sample collection and storage for terrestrial analyses, and precise data monitoring from integrated sensors. The MOBP was flight-tested with two experiments designed to evaluate biological upcycling of the plastic poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET). The bioproduct βKA can be polymerized into a nylon-6,6 analog with improved properties for use in the production of a variety of materials. We posit the MOBP will aid in democratizing the execution of synthetic biology in spaceflight towards enabling ISRU.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment of Distributed Energy Resources via Scenario-Based AC Optimal Power Flow

As electric grids decarbonize and distributed energy resources (DERs) become increasingly prevalent, interconnection assessments must evolve to reflect operational variability and control flexibility. This paper highlights key modeling limitations observed in practice and reviews approaches for modeling uncertainty. It then introduces a Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment (PDA) framework designed to complement and extend existing procedures. The framework integrates scenario-based AC optimal power flow (AC OPF), corrective dispatch, and optional multi-temporal constraints. Together, these form a structured methodology for quantifying DER utilization, deliverability, and reliability under uncertainty in load, generation, and topology. Outputs include interpretable metrics with confidence intervals that inform siting decisions and evaluate compliance with reliability thresholds across sampled operating conditions. A case study on Puerto Rico’s publicly available bulk power system model demonstrates the framework’s application using minimal input data, consistent with current interconnection practice. Across staged fossil generation retirements, the PDA identifies high-value DER sites and regions requiring additional reactive power support. Results are presented through mean dispatch signals, reliability metrics, and geospatial visualizations, demonstrating how the framework provides transparent, data-driven siting recommendations. The framework’s modular design supports incremental adoption within existing workflows, encouraging broader use of AC OPF in interconnection and planning contexts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multitiered computational methodology for extracting three-dimensional rotational diffusion coefficients from x-ray photon correlation spectroscopy data without structural information

X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) is a powerful technique for analyzing particle systems by investigating their dynamics in suspensions across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. This is done by illuminating samples with coherent x-ray beams and calculating the correlation function of the obtained x-ray scattering images. XPCS is uniquely suited for studying Brownian dynamics, consisting of translational and rotational diffusion. While traditional XPCS image analysis techniques can extract translational diffusion components, they are unable to estimate rotational diffusion coefficients. Here, we introduce a methodology that combines the angular-temporal cross-correlation analysis and a algorithmic framework called Multi-Tiered Estimation for Correlation Spectroscopy in 3D for estimating three-dimensional rotational diffusion coefficients from XPCS images of three-dimensional particle systems. We demonstrate our methodology for extracting rotational diffusion coefficients from XPCS data by applying it to simulated noisy x-ray images of systems of crossing nanotubes and proteins that evolve under translational and rotational Brownian motion for different diffusion rates. Furthermore, our results show that our approach determines rotational diffusion coefficients within a few percent error.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-term measurements of ice nucleating particles at Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites worldwide

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) play a critical role in cloud microphysics and precipitation formation, yet long-term, spatially extensive observational datasets remain limited. Here, we present one of the most comprehensive publicly available datasets of immersion-mode INP concentrations using a single analytical method, generated through the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. INP filter samples have been collected across a broad range of environments – including agricultural plains, Arctic coastlines, high-elevation mountain sites, marine regions, and urban areas – via fixed observatories, mobile facility deployments, and vertically-resolved tethered balloon system operations. We describe the standardized processing and quality assurance pipeline, from filter collection and processing using the Ice Nucleation Spectrometer to final data products archived on the ARM Data Discovery portal. The dataset includes both total INP concentrations and selectively treated samples, allowing for classification of biological, organic, and inorganic INP types. It features a continuous 5-year record of INP measurements from a central U.S. site, with data collection still ongoing. Seasonal and site-specific differences in INP concentrations are illustrated through intercomparisons at −10 and −20 °C, revealing distinct regional sources and atmospheric drivers. We also outline mechanisms for researchers to access existing data, request additional sample analyses, and propose future field campaigns involving ARM INP measurements. This dataset supports a wide range of scientific applications, from observational and mechanistic studies to model development, and provides critical constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions across diverse atmospheric regimes (Creamean et al., 2024, 2020b; https://doi.org/10.5439/1770816).

Creamean, Jessie M. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Co↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI Mg II Absorbers: Extinction Characteristics and Quasar Redshift Accuracy

In this paper, we study how absorption-line systems affect the spectra and redshifts of quasi-stellar objects (QSOs), using catalogs of Mg II absorbers from the early data release and first data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. We determine the reddening effect of an absorption system by fitting an unreddened template spectrum to a sample of 50,674 QSO spectra that contain Mg II absorbers. We find that reddening caused by intervening absorbers (v off > 3500 km s −1 ) has an average color excess of $\overline{E(B-V)}$ = 0.04 mag. We find that the E(B − V) tends to be greater for absorbers at low redshifts, or those having Mg II absorption lines with higher equivalent widths, but shows no clear trend with v off for intervening systems. However, the $\overline{E(B-V)}$ of associated absorbers, those at v off < 3500 km s −1 , shows a strong trend with v off , increasing rapidly with decreasing v off and peaking (∼0.15 mag) around v off = 0 km s −1 . We demonstrate that Mg II absorbers impact redshift estimation for QSOs by investigating the distributions of v off for associated absorbers. We find that at z > 1.5, these distributions broaden and bifurcate in a nonphysical manner. In an effort to mitigate this effect, we mask pixels associated with the Mg II absorption lines and recalculate the QSO redshifts. We find that we can recover voff populations in better agreement with those for z < 1.5 absorbers and in doing so typically shift background QSO redshifts by Δz ≈ ± 0.005.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complete resolution across the neodymium/samarium isotopic envelope with a liquid sampling‐atmospheric pressure glow discharge — Orbitrap mass spectrometer

Rationale Nd and Sm isotope ratios play an important role in geological dating and as nuclear forensic signatures; however, the overlap of the respective 144, 148, 150 Nd/Sm isobars requires prior separations to be performed before analysis on typical MS platforms. The work presented here overcomes these isobaric interferences using ultrahigh‐mass resolution to alleviate interference without prior chemical separations. Methods A liquid sampling‐atmospheric pressure glow discharge ion source was coupled to a standard, QExactive Focus Orbitrap mass spectrometer, providing a mass resolution of ~80 k. A Spectroswiss FTMS booster X2 data acquisition package was used to collect extended transients, providing much higher mass resolution; ~230 k and ~600 k are employed here for Nd and Sm isotopes. Results While the standard Orbitrap resolution is far greater than typical “atomic” MS platforms, it was insufficient to alleviate all isobars. The use of a resolution of ~230 k resulted in baseline separation across the entire isotopic envelope for both Nd and Sm. Isotope ratios obtained from Nd:Sm mixtures using high‐resolution were equivalent to those found for individual‐element solutions, while isotope ratios obtained at a resolution of ~80 k (standard for the OEM data system) showed large deviations. Conclusions Use of ultrahigh‐resolution is an attractive alternative to extensive chemical separations to alleviate severe isobaric interferences. Sufficient mass resolution greatly reduces/eliminates the need for sample manipulations (separations) before analysis while reducing costs and total analysis times.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Completion of Transport Property Measurements on Multiple Actinide Fluoride Mixtures

One of the missions of the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) Campaign under the Advanced Reactor Technology program has been to experimentally measure thermophysical properties of MSR-relevent salt systems, with the intent of supporting the development of the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database (MSTDB). This database is jointly funded by the DOE-NE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program and the MSR Campaign. Multiple DOE national laboratories, including Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), have been conducting measurements of thermophysical properties to support MSTDB development and provide MSR developers with access to new data that has been measured using modern methodologies and more advanced sample characterization techniques. These data may either fill gaps in the database or provide updated higher quality data to replace legacy data. Researchers at ORNL have recognized significant gaps in the transport property data of actinide-bearing fluoride salt systems of MSR industry interest. Moreover, for the data present in MSTDB in this category, the uncertainty margins are generally high, leading to questionability in our current understanding of the thermophysical characterization of actinide fluoride mixtures. As such, the focus of this study has been to generate new transport property data of actinide fluoride mixtures that are of immediate interest to MSR developers. Specifically, the mixtures NaF-UF 4 (78 - 22 mol%) and NaF-KF-UF 4 (57-16.04-26.91 mol%) have been studied—NaF-UF 4 for thermal conductivity and viscosity and NaF-KF-UF 4 for viscosity. Thermal conductivity measurements have been conducted with a variable gap apparatus, whereas viscosity has been measured with a rolling ball viscometer. Methodological and calibration details are provided for both measurement processes, along with measurement system updates that have enabled easier manufacturing of components and fewer challenges associated with conducting the measurements themselves. The resultant data collected for NaF-UF 4 (78–22 mol%) and NaF-KF-UF 4 (57-16.04-26.91 mol%) have been compared with relevant mixture data within the thermophysical arm of the MSTDB (MSTDB-TP).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

AI-NERD: Elucidation of relaxation dynamics beyond equilibrium through AI-informed X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy

Abstract Understanding and interpreting dynamics of functional materials in situ is a grand challenge in physics and materials science due to the difficulty of experimentally probing materials at varied length and time scales. X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) is uniquely well-suited for characterizing materials dynamics over wide-ranging time scales. However, spatial and temporal heterogeneity in material behavior can make interpretation of experimental XPCS data difficult. In this work, we have developed an unsupervised deep learning (DL) framework for automated classification of relaxation dynamics from experimental data without requiring any prior physical knowledge of the system. We demonstrate how this method can be used to accelerate exploration of large datasets to identify samples of interest, and we apply this approach to directly correlate microscopic dynamics with macroscopic properties of a model system. Importantly, this DL framework is material and process agnostic, marking a concrete step towards autonomous materials discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electric Utility Distribution Costs: Scoping Study on Trends, Drivers, and Possible Response Strategies [Slides]

This scoping study synthesizes information that will help stakeholders understand the scope, scale, and drivers of recent increases in investor-owned utility (IOU) expenditures on local distribution power grids, while providing regulators and other decision-makers with potential strategies to keep electricity bills down. The study includes five distinct components. Drawing first on data from FERC Form 1, it summarizes key trends in past and recent IOU distribution costs. Next, through a review of a sample of distribution-system plans, it characterizes material drivers of planned distribution expenditures. Ultimately, regulators must approve cost recovery for IOU expenditures, including those for the distribution system. The study therefore also: examines trends in utility requests and regulatory approvals related to changes in retail rates and return on equity; identifies areas where utility shareholder and customer incentives may be misaligned; and develops a menu of options that state regulators might consider to optimize distribution system expenditures. Some of the key findings include: - IOU distribution spending at a national level has grown by 6%/yr since 2014 in real dollar terms, 4x faster than in the prior 20 years and consisting mostly of capital (not operating) expenditure. - On a per-kWh basis, increases in IOU distribution costs since 2014 represent over 30% of the overall national-average increase in retail electricity rates. - Regional spending growth has ranged from 2-8%/yr, with larger estimated rate impacts in CAISO, then NYISO & ISO-NE, and then the Southeast, MISO & PJM (see figure). - Some utilities are planning for significantly increased distribution system spending. Planned spending on managing the existing system (asset replacement, safety & reliability, and resilience are all important drivers) exceeds that for capacity expansion. - IOU rate increase requests ($18 billion in 2025) and public utility commission (PUC) approval levels (average of 64% of requested amounts from 2021-2025) have recently hit multi-decadal highs. - PUCs in New England and the Southeast have recently approved a greater fraction of rate requests (>75%, on average) than in ther regions, while PUCs in California and the Southeast have generally authorized higher equity returns than in other regions. - Regulators have many tools to tackle potential misalignments between utility and customer interests and, more specifically, to optimize and reduce distribution costs. Shorter-term options include those related to return on equity, capital structure, depreciation, trackers, construction work in progress, and securitization. Longer-term options include performance-based regulation and a wide variety of planning-related requirements. All options embed important tradeoffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

SCILLA Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (SEMS) airborne data

The Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (SEMS) provides measurements of bulk aerosol size distributions, which are crucial for studying aerosol-cloud interactions. The instrument sampled through two different inlets: an isokinetic inlet and a counter-flow virtual impactor (CVI) inlet. Data were collected to help improve climate and earth systems models, characterize atmospheric conditions, and validate satellite observations and climate simulations.

Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven emulation of modal aerosol microphysics via neural operator-based modeling

The complexity and the small characteristic scales of aerosol microphysical processes pose a big challenge for accurate and efficient Earth system simulations at regional and global scales. In this work, we construct and evaluate a surrogate model: the aerosol deep operator network (ADON), a physics-inspired dual-net architecture for emulating the aerosol microphysics parameterization suite in the version 2 of the Energy Earth System Model (E3SMv2). The current version of the surrogate model is trained on a dataset comprising 9.8 million samples obtained from a global E3SMv2 simulation with the horizontal resolution of about one degree under cloud-free conditions. Incorporating domain spatial and temporal coordinates, as well as principle components extracted from training data, the dual-net surrogate model effectively captures the intricate representations of aerosol and the relationship with atmospheric state variables, achieving an R-squared score over $$95.7\%$$ for all the lognormal aerosol modes in the extrapolated regime. The validated model provides feature importance of input variables and their impact on the predictive capacity of the surrogate model in relation to the E3SM. The computational cost of online inference time deployed on CPUs and GPUs with lower precisions highlights ADON’s efficiency and potential in robust predictive modeling for large-scale Earth system computations.

Bai, Zhe↗
DOE OSTI2024

Polynomial chaos expansions on principal geodesic Grassmannian submanifolds for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification

In this work we introduce a manifold learning-based surrogate modeling framework for uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional stochastic systems. Our first goal is to perform data mining on the available simulation data to identify a set of low-dimensional (latent) descriptors that efficiently parameterize the response of the high-dimensional computational model. To this end, we employ Principal Geodesic Analysis on the Grassmann manifold of the response to identify a set of disjoint principal geodesic submanifolds, of possibly different dimension, that captures the variation in the data. Since operations on the Grassmann require the data to be concentrated, we propose an adaptive algorithm based on Riemannian K-means and the minimization of the sample Fréchet variance on the Grassmann manifold to identify “local” principal geodesic submanifolds that represent different system behavior across the parameter space. Polynomial chaos expansion is then used to construct a mapping between the random input parameters and the projection of the response on these local principal geodesic submanifolds. Here, the method is demonstrated on four test cases, a toy-example that involves points on a hypersphere, a Lotka-Volterra dynamical system, a continuous-flow stirred-tank chemical reactor system, and a two-dimensional Rayleigh-Bénard convection problem.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing earth system model calibration: a diffusion-based method

Understanding of climate impact on ecosystems globally requires site-specific model calibration. Here we introduce a novel diffusion-based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method for efficient model calibration. DBUQ is a score-based diffusion model that leverages Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the score function and evaluates a simple neural network to quickly generate samples for approximating parameter posterior distributions. DBUQ is stable, efficient, and can effectively calibrate the model given diverse observations, thereby enabling rapid and site-specific model calibration on a global scale. This capability significantly advances Earth system modeling and our understanding of climate impacts on Earth systems. We demonstrate DBUQ's capability in E3SM land model calibration at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Both synthetic and real-data applications indicate that DBUQ produces accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those generated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30X less computing time. This efficiency marks a significant stride in model calibration, paving the way for more effective and timely climate impact analyses.

Liu, Yanfang↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Corrected Score Function Framework for Modelling Circadian Gene Expression

Many biological processes display oscillatory behaviour based on an approximately 24 h internal timing system specific to each individual. One process of particular interest is gene expression, for which several circadian transcriptomic studies have identified associations between gene expression during a 24 h period and an individual's health. A challenge with analysing data from these studies is that each individual's internal timing system is offset relative to the 24 h day-night cycle, where day–night cycle time is recorded for each collected sample. Laboratory procedures can accurately determine each individual's offset and determine the internal time of sample collection. However, these laboratory procedures are labour-intensive and expensive. Here, in this paper, we propose a corrected score function framework to obtain a regression model of gene expression given internal time when the offset of each individual is too burdensome to determine. A feature of this framework is that it does not require the probability distribution generating offsets to be symmetric with a mean of zero. Simulation studies validate the use of this corrected score function framework for cosinor regression, which is prevalent in circadian transcriptomic studies. Illustrations with data from three circadian transcriptomic studies further demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently mitigates bias relative to using a score function that does not account for this offset.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preserving nonlinear constraints in variational flow filtering data assimilation

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems of interest obey nonlinear physical constraints, and the corresponding dynamics is confined to a certain sub-manifold of the state space. Standard data assimilation techniques applied to such systems yield posterior states lying outside the manifold, violating the physical constraints. This work focuses on particle flow filters which use stochastic differential equations to evolve state samples from a prior distribution to samples from an observation-informed posterior distribution. The variational Fokker-Planck (VFP)—a generic particle flow filtering framework—is extended to incorporate non-linear, equality state constraints in the analysis. To this end, two algorithmic approaches that modify the VFP stochastic differential equation are discussed: (i) VFPSTAB, to inexactly preserve constraints with the addition of a stabilizing drift term, and (ii) VFPDAE, to exactly preserve constraints by treating the VFP dynamics as a stochastic differential-algebraic equation (SDAE). Additionally, an implicit-explicit time integrator is developed to evolve the VFPDAE dynamics. The strength of the proposed approach for constraint preservation in data assimilation is demonstrated on three test problems: the double pendulum, Korteweg-de-Vries, and the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Operational Analytics Studies for ATLAS Distributed Computing: Data Popularity Forecast and Utilization of the WLCG Centers

Operational analytics is the direction of research related to the analysis of the current state of computing processes and the prediction of future states in order to anticipate imbalances and take timely measures to stabilize a complex system. There are two relevant areas in ATLAS Distributed Computing that are currently the focus of studies: user physics analysis including the forecast of popularity of data samples among users, and evaluating WLCG centers for their readiness to process user analysis payloads. Studying these areas is challenging due to the complexity involved, as it requires a comprehensive understanding of numerous boundary conditions typically found in large-scale distributed computing infrastructures. Forecasts of data popularity are problematic without the categorization of user tasks by their types (data transformation or physics analysis), which do not always appear on the surface but may induce noise, which introduces significant distortions for predictive analysis. Evaluating the WLCG resources by their analysis workloads is also a challenging task as it is necessary to find a balance between the workload of the resource, its performance, the waiting time for jobs on it, as well as the volume of jobs that it processes. This is especially difficult in a heterogeneous computing environment, where legacy resources are used along with modern high-performance machines. We will look at these areas of research in detail and discuss what tools and methods are used in our work, demonstrating results already obtained.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗