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NASA NTRS1985

Development and Testing of the Variable Vertical Resolution Fourth Order GCM

The vertical coordinate of the Fourth Order Model has been generalized so that the model can now run with an arbitrary number of vertical layers and so that the thicknesses of these layers can be arbitrarily specified (in the sigma coordinate). This Variable Vertical Resolution (VVR) version of the Fourth Order Model will soon replace the current production model. To assess the skill of the VVR model, it has been run with 9 equally spaced layers and compared with the current production model. In two Northern Hemispheric winter cases and one summer case, the two models were virtually identical in forecast skill for 6 to 7 days. After that the VVR model was slightly better in the winter cases and the production model was slightly better in the summer case. The only exception to this was that after 2 days the production model gave slightly more skillful 500 mb forecasts in the tropics for the summer case.

Helfand, H. M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Evidence of a Supermassive Black Hole in the Galaxy NGC 1023 From The Nuclear Stellar Dynamics

We analyze the nuclear stellar dynamics of the SBO galaxy NGC 1023, utilizing observational data both from the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph aboard the Hubble Space Telescope and from the ground. The stellar kinematics measured from these long-slit spectra show rapid rotation (V equals approx. 70 km/s at a distance of O.1 deg = 4.9 pc from the nucleus) and increasing velocity dispersion toward the nucleus (where sigma = 295 +/- 30 km/s). We model the observed stellar kinematics assuming an axisymmetric mass distribution with both two and three integrals of motion. Both modeling techniques point to the presence of a central dark compact mass (which presumably is a supermassive black hole) with confidence > 99%. The isotropic two-integral models yield a best-fitting black hole mass of (6.0 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp 7) solar masses and mass-to-light ratio (M/L(sub v)) of 5.38 +/- 0.08, and the goodness-of-fit (CHI(exp 2)) is insensitive to reasonable values for the galaxy's inclination. The three-integral models, which non-parametrically fit the observed line-of-sight velocity distribution as a function of position in the galaxy, suggest a black hole mass of (3.9 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp 7) solar masses and M/L(sub v) of 5.56 +/- 0.02 (internal errors), and the edge-on models are vastly superior fits over models at other inclinations. The internal dynamics in NGC 1023 as suggested by our best-fit three-integral model shows that the velocity distribution function at the nucleus is tangentially anisotropic, suggesting the presence of a nuclear stellar disk. The nuclear line of sight velocity distribution has enhanced wings at velocities >= 600 km/s from systemic, suggesting that perhaps we have detected a group of stars very close to the central dark mass.

Bower, G. A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Millimeter wave transmission studies of YBa2Cu3O7-delta thin films in the 26.5 to 40.0 GHz frequency range

Millimeter wave transmission measurements through YBa2Cu3O(7-delta) thin films on MgO, ZrO2 and LaAlO3 substrates, are reported. The films (approx. 1 micron) were deposited by sequential evaporation and laser ablation techniques. Transition temperatures T sub c, ranging from 89.7 K for the Laser Ablated film on LaAlO3 to approximately 72 K for the sequentially evaporated film on MgO, were obtained. The values of the real and imaginary parts of the complex conductivity, sigma 1 and sigma 2, are obtained from the transmission data, assuming a two fluid model. The BCS approach is used to calculate values for an effective energy gap from the obtained values of sigma sub 1. A range of gap values from 2 DELTA o/K sub B T sub c = 4.19 to 4.35 was obtained. The magnetic penetration depth is evaluated from the deduced values of sigma 2. These results are discussed together with the frequency dependence of the normalized transmission amplitude, P/P sub c, below and above T sub c.

Miranda, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

K-Ca Dating of Alkali-Rich Fragments in the Y-74442 and Bhola LL-Chondritic Breccias

Alkali-rich igneous fragments in the brecciated LL-chondrites, Krahenberg (LL5) [1], Bhola (LL3-6) [2], Siena (LL5) [3] and Yamato (Y)-74442 (LL4) [4-6], show characteristic fractionation patterns of alkali and alkaline elements [7]. The alkali-rich fragments in Krahenberg, Bhola and Y-74442 are very similar in mineralogy and petrography, suggesting that they could have come from related precursor materials [6]. Recently we reported Rb-Sr isotopic systematics of alkali-rich igneous rock fragments in Y-74442: nine fragments from Y-74442 yield the Rb-Sr age of 4429 plus or minus 54 Ma (2 sigma) for lambda(Rb-87) = 0.01402 Ga(exp -1) [8] with the initial ratio of Sr-87/Sr-86 = 0.7144 plus or minus 0.0094 (2 sigma) [9]. The Rb-Sr age of the alkali-rich fragments of Y-74442 is younger than the primary Rb-Sr age of 4541 plus or minus 14 Ma for LL-chondrite whole-rock samples [10], implying that they formed after accumulation of LL-chondrite parental bodies, although enrichment may have happened earlier. Marshall and DePaolo [11,12] demonstrated that the K-40 - Ca-40 decay system could be an important chronometer as well as a useful radiogenic tracer for studies of terrestrial rocks. Shih et al. [13,14] and more recently Simon et al. [15] determined K-Ca ages of lunar granitic rocks, and showed the application of the K-Ca chronometer for K-rich planetary materials. Since alkali-rich fragments in the LL-chondritic breccias are highly enriched in K, we can expect enhancements of radiogenic Ca-40. Here, we report preliminary results of K-Ca isotopic systematics of alkali-rich fragments in the LL-chondritic breccias, Y-74442 and Bhola.

Yokoyama, T↗

NASA NTRS1994

A Comparison of Density Functional Theory with Ab initio Approaches for Systems Involving First Transition Row Metals

Density functional theory (DFT) is found to give a better description of the geometries and vibrational frequencies of FeL and FeL(sup +) systems than second order Moller Plesset perturbation theory (MP2). Namely, the DFT correctly predicts the shift in the CO vibrational frequency between free CO and the Sigma(sup -) state of FeCO and yields a good result for the Fe-C distance in the quartet states of FeCH4(+) 4 These are properties where the MP2 results are unsatisfactory. Thus DFT appears to be an excellent approach for optimizing the geometries and computing the zero-point energies of systems containing first transition row atoms. Because the DFT approach is biased in favor of the 3d(exp 7) occupation, whereas the more traditional approaches are biased in favor of the 3d(exp 6) occupation, differences are found in the relative ordering of states. It is shown that if the dissociation is computed to the most appropriate atomic asymptote and corrected to the ground state asymptote using the experimental separations, the DFT results are in good agreement with high levels of theory. The energetics at the DFT level are much superior to the MP2 and in most cases in good agreement with high levels of theory.

Ricca, Alessandra↗

NASA NTRS1994

Searching for hard X-ray directivity during the rise, peak, and decay phases of solar flares

We have identified 72 large solar flares (peak counting rates more than 1000 counts/s) observed by Hard X-ray Burst Spectroscopy (HXRBS) on-board the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM). Using a database of these flares, we have studied hard X-ray (50-850 keV) spectral center-to-limb variation and its evolution with time. The major results are the following: (1) During the rise phase, the center-to-limb spectral variation is small, with a hardness of delta delta = 0.02 +/- 0.25, and a statistical significance of 0.1 sigma. (2) During the peak phase, the center-to-limb variation is delta delta = 0.13 +/- 0.13, with a statistical significance of 1 sigma. (3) During the decay phase, the center-to-limb variation changes to softening. The softness is relatively large with delta delta = -0.25 +/- 0.21, and a statistical significance of 1.2 sigma. (4) The linear least-squares fits to the spectral center-to-limb variations do not have slopes significantly different from zero during all those three phases. (5) The center events and limb events spectral distributions are shown to be not different by using Kolmogorov-Smirnov two-samples test. (6) The fraction of events detected near the limb is marginally consistent with that expected from isotropically emitting flares. (7) On average, flares evolve as soft-hard-soft. These results suggest that there is no statistically significant evidence for hard X-ray directivity during the rise, peak, and decay phases of solar flares. The hard X-ray radiation pattern at those energies is almost isotropic during all those phases. This lack of directivity (or anisotropy) found in this study is not in agreement with the results discovered by Vestrand et al. (1987) in which they found energetic photon source is anisotropic, using SMM Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (GRS) data at a much higher energy band of 0.3-1 MeV. If we want to interpret the results of Vestrand et al. (1987) and our present results in a self-consistent way, we must conclude that at energies of greater than 50 keV, the Compton backscattering suppresses the hard X-ray anisotropy sufficiently so that no significant directivity can be measured during the rise, peak, and decay phases of solar flares. during the rise, peak, and decay phases of solar flares.

Li, Peng↗

NASA NTRS1997

Measuring the 511 keV emission in the direction of 1E1740.7-2942 with BATSE

Observations of the 511 keV emission in the direction of 1E 1740.7-2942 (1E) using the earth burst and transient source experiment (BATSE) onboard the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), are presented. The CGRO phase 1 average spectrum of 1E is calculated using a method which assumes that a given source spectrum is the sum of the flux coming directly from the object and the contribution from the surrounding diffuse emission. The 1E light curve is calculated in the 40 to 150 keV range. It presents a constant flux excess of 70 mCrab in comparison with observations from the SIGMA gamma ray telescope onboard the GRANAT observatory. By removing this contribution, the 1E spectral transition from the low state to the high standard state observed by SIGMA is confirmed, and it is shown that the 511 keV flux is independent of the 1E long term evolution from low state to high standard state. It is concluded that the 511 keV emission of (4.2 +/- 1.3) x 140(exp -4) photons/sq cm s observed in the direction of 1E is mainly diffuse and spatially extended.

Wallyn, P.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Proteomic Retrieval from Nucleic Acid Depleted Space-Flown Human Cells

Compared to experiments utilizing humans in microgravity, cell-based approaches to questions about subsystems of the human system afford multiple advantages, such as crew safety and the ability to achieve statistical significance. To maximize the science return from flight samples, an optimized method was developed to recover protein from samples depleted of nucleic acid. This technique allows multiple analyses on a single cellular sample and when applied to future cellular investigations could accelerate solutions to significant biomedical barriers to human space exploration. Cell cultures grown in American Fluoroseal bags were treated with an RNA stabilizing agent (RNAlater - Ambion), which enabled both RNA and immunoreactive protein analyses. RNA was purified using an RNAqueous(registered TradeMark) kit (Ambion) and the remaining RNA free supernatant was precipitated with 5% trichloroacetic acid. The precipitate was dissolved in SDS running buffer and tested for protein content using a bicinchoninic acid assay (1) (Sigma). Equal loads of protein were placed on SDS-PAGE gels and either stained with CyproOrange (Amersham) or transferred using Western Blotting techniques (2,3,4). Protein recovered from RNAlater-treated cells and stained with protein stain, was measured using Imagequant volume measurements for rectangles of equal size. BSA treated in this way gave quantitative data over the protein range used (Fig 1). Human renal cortical epithelial (HRCE) cells (5,6,7) grown onboard the International Space Station (ISS) during Increment 3 and in ground control cultures exhibited similar immunoreactivity profiles for antibodies to the Vitamin D receptor (VDR) (Fig 2), the beta isoform of protein kinase C (PKC ) (Fig 3), and glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH) (Fig 4). Parallel immunohistochemical studies on formalin-fixed flight and ground control cultures also showed positive immunostaining for VDR and other biomarkers (Fig 5). These results are consistent with data from additional antigenic recovery experiments performed on human Mullerian tumor cells cultured in microgravity (8).

Hammond, D. K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Non-sea-salt sulfate and methanesulfonate at American Samoa

High-volume bulk aerosol samples have been collected at American Samoa (14.25 deg S, 170.58 deg W) on a semicontinuous basis since the system was erected as part of the Sea/Air Exchange Program (SEAREX) in March 1983. In this report we consider those samples collected through May 6, 1992. For most of this period the sample filters were changed once a week. However, during November 1989 and from May 10 to June 10, 1990, in conjunction with the aircraft missions of the NASA Global Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE), the filters were changed daily. All of the samples were analyzed for nonsea-salt (nss) SO4(2-) and NO3(-). Analyses for methanesulfonate (MSA) include all of the 53 daily samples, 22 weekly samples from March 19, 1983, through April 12, 1984, and 96 weekly samples from January 3, 1990, through May 6, 1992. The mean concentrations (in micrograms per cubic meter) were 0.37 for nss SO4(2-), 0.0229 for MSA, 0.114 for NO3(-), and 5.1 for Na(+). Nss SO4(2-) and MSA are strongly linearly correlated in these 171 samples (r(exp 2) = 0.66) and the regression intercept does not differ significantly from zero. The geometric mean (GM) nss SO4(2-)/MSA ratio, 18.1 +/- 0.9 (where +/- indicates the 95% confidence interval of the GM) is about 7% higher than had previously been reported for this station. The ratio exhibits no significant seasonal variation. Although the ratio appeared to be significantly lower in the May - June 1990 daily samples (GM = 15.3 +/- 1.2), a further examination of the results indicated that the variance of the measured ratios from 18.1 (the GM for the whole data set) was attributable almost exclusively to the typical random errors in the analyses as determined from the 1 sigma analytical uncertainties of 5% for MSA and SO4(2-) and 2% for Na(+).

Savoie, Dennis L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Increase of carbonyl fluoride (COF2) in the stratosphere and its contribution to the 1992 budget of inorganic fluorine in the upper stratosphere

Volume mixing ratio profiles of COF2 have been derived through most of the stratosphere between 30 deg N and 54 deg S from series of 0.01-/cm resolution infrared solar spectra recorded in the occultation mode by the atmospheric trace molecule spectroscopy (ATMOS) instrument during the ATLAS 1 space shuttle mission of March-April 1992. When compared with similar results obtained from the ATMOS/Spacelab 3 mission of April-May 1985, the cumulative increase in the burden of COF2 in the middle and upper stratosphere was found to be 67% for that 7-year time interval. By combining a subset of these COF2 results with upper stratospheric concentrations of HF also derived from the ATMOS observations, it was further found that the budget of inorganic fluorine above 35 km altitude increased by (60 +/- 10)% over the 1985-1992 time interval, which corresponds to an average exponential rate of increase of (6.7 +/- 1/1)%/yr, or a linear rate of increase reference to 1985 of (8.5 +/- 1.3)%/yr at the 1 sigma confidence level. The total inorganic F atom volume mixing ratio found in the upper stratosphere for 1985 and 1992 and the increase during this perid mirror the rise in man-made fluorine-bearing compounds at the ground during the early to mid 1980s. This demonstrates the negligible impact of natural sources of fluorine, in particular volcanic activity, on the observed change in F in the upper stratosphere. Implications of the present findings and comparison with model results are discussed.

Zander, R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Increase of carbonyl fluoride (COF2) in the stratosphere and its contribution to the 1992 budget of inorganic fluorine in the upper stratosphere

Volume mixing ratio profiles of COF2 have been derived through most of the stratosphere between 30 deg N and 54 deg S from series of 0.01-cm(exp -1) resolution infrared solar spectra recorded in the occultation mode by the atmospheric trace molecule spectroscopy (ATMOS) instrument during the ATLAS 1 space shuttle mission of March-April 1992. When compared with similar results obtained from the ATMOS/Spacelab 3 mission of April-May 1985, the cumulative increase in the burden of COF2 in the middle and upper stratosphere was found to be 67% for that 7-year time interval. By combining a subset of these COF2 results with upper stratospheric concentrations of HF also derived from the ATMOS observations, it was further found that the budget of inorganic fluorine above 35 km altitude increased by (60 +/- 10) % over the 1985-1992 time interval, which corresponds to an average exponential rate of increase of(6.7 +/- 1.1) % /yr , or a linear rate of increase referenced to 1985 of (8.5 +/- 1.3) % /yr at the 1(sigma) confidence level. The total inorganic F atom volume mixing ratio found in the upper stratosphere for 1985 and 1992 and the increase during this period mirror the rise in man-made fluorine-bearing compounds at the ground during the early to mid 1980s. This demonstrates the negligible impact of natural sources of fluorine, in particular volcanic activity, on the observed change of F in the upper stratosphere. Implications of the present findings and comparison with model results are discussed.

Zander, R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

1,2-Dichlorohexafluoro-Cyclobutane (1,2-c-C4F6Cl2, R-316c) a Potent Ozone Depleting Substance and Greenhouse Gas: Atmospheric Loss Processes, Lifetimes, and Ozone Depletion and Global Warming Potentials for the (E) and (Z) stereoisomers

The atmospheric processing of (E)- and (Z)-1,2-dichlorohexafluorocyclobutane (1,2-c-C4F6Cl2, R-316c) was examined in this work as the ozone depleting (ODP) and global warming (GWP) potentials of this proposed replacement compound are presently unknown. The predominant atmospheric loss processes and infrared absorption spectra of the R-316c isomers were measured to provide a basis to evaluate their atmospheric lifetimes and, thus, ODPs and GWPs. UV absorption spectra were measured between 184.95 to 230 nm at temperatures between 214 and 296 K and a parametrization for use in atmospheric modeling is presented. The Cl atom quantum yield in the 193 nm photolysis of R- 316c was measured to be 1.90 +/- 0.27. Hexafluorocyclobutene (c-C4F6) was determined to be a photolysis co-product with molar yields of 0.7 and 1.0 (+/-10%) for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c, respectively. The 296 K total rate coefficient for the O(1D) + R-316c reaction, i.e., O(1D) loss, was measured to be (1.56 +/- 0.11) × 10(exp −10)cu cm/ molecule/s and the reactive rate coefficient, i.e., R-316c loss, was measured to be (1.36 +/- 0.20) × 10(exp −10)cu cm/molecule/s corresponding to a approx. 88% reactive yield. Rate coefficient upper-limits for the OH and O3 reaction with R-316c were determined to be <2.3 × 10(exp −17) and <2.0 × 10(exp −22)cu cm/molecule/s, respectively, at 296 K. The quoted uncertainty limits are 2(sigma) and include estimated systematic errors. Local and global annually averaged lifetimes for the (E)- and (Z)-R-316c isomers were calculated using a 2-D atmospheric model to be 74.6 +/- 3 and 114.1 +/-10 years, respectively, where the estimated uncertainties are due solely to the uncertainty in the UV absorption spectra. Stratospheric photolysis is the predominant atmospheric loss process for both isomers with the O(1D) reaction making a minor, approx. 2% for the (E) isomer and 7% for the (Z) isomer, contribution to the total atmospheric loss. Ozone depletion potentials for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c were calculated using the 2-D model to be 0.46 and 0.54, respectively. Infrared absorption spectra for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c were measured at 296 K and used to estimate their radiative efficiencies (REs) and GWPs; 100-year time-horizon GWPs of 4160 and 5400 were obtained for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c, respectively. Both isomers of R-316c are shown in this work to be long-lived ozone depleting substances and potent greenhouse gases.

UV cross section↗

NASA NTRS1993

Synthesis of phthalocyanine doped sol-gel materials

The synthesis of sol-gel silica materials doped with three different types of metallophthalocyanines has been studied. Homogeneous materials of good optical quality were prepared and the first optical limiting measurements of dyes in sol-gel hosts were carried out. The properties of these solid state limiters are similar to limiters based on phthalocyanine (Pc) in solution. Sol-gel silica materials containing copper, tin and germanium phthalocyanines were investigated. The initial step in all cases was to prepare silica sols by the sonogel method using tetramethoxy silane (TMOS), HCl and distilled water. Thereafter, the synthesis depended upon the specific Pc and its solubility characteristics. Copper phthalocyanine tetrasulfonic acid tetra sodium salt (CuPc4S) is soluble in water and various doping levels (1 x 10 (exp -4) M to 1 x 10 (exp -5) M) were added to the sol. The group IV Pc's, SnPc(OSi(n-hexyl)3)2 and GePc(OSi(n-hexyl)3)2, are insoluble in water and the process was changed accordingly. In these cases, the compounds were dissolved in THF and then added to the sol. The Pc concentration in the sol was 2 x 10(exp -5)M. The samples were then aged and dried in the standard method of making xerogel monoliths. Comparative nanosecond optical limiting experiments were performed on silica xerogels that were doped with the different metallophthalocyanines. The ratio of the net excited state absorption cross section (sigma(sub e)) to the ground state cross section (sigma(sub g)) is an important figure of merit that is used to characterize these materials. By this standard the SnPc sample exhibits the best limiting for the Pc doped sol-gel materials. Its cross section ratio of 19 compares favorably with the value of 22 that was measured in toluene. The GePc materials appear to not be as useful as those containing SnPc. The GePc doped solids exhibit a higher onset energy (2.5 mj and lower cross section ratio, 7. The CuPc4S sol-gel material has a still lower cross section ratio, 4, however, the tetrasulfonate groups make the dye soluble in water which greatly facilitates its incorporation into the sol-gel matrix. The nonlinear transmission of CuPc4S in a pH 2 buffer solution and in a silica xerogel were compared. It is evident that the CuPc4S preserves its optical limiting behavior in the sol-gel matrix, indicating that the fundamental excited state absorption process is essentially the same for a molecule in solution or in the solid state. Although the spectroscopic details of energy level lifetimes are unknown, the significance is that passive optical limiting has been achieved in the solid state via incorporation of a dye into an inorganic host. The only compromise occurs at the extremely high energy regime where photobleaching is observed. This is a result of the limited mobility of the dye molecules in the solid silica host relative to a liquid host. The effects of photodegradation in the xerogel are additive, whereas the solution provides a supply of fresh molecules that are free to enter the active volume between pulses.

Dunn, Bruce↗

NASA NTRS2017

ALMA Detection and Astrobiological Potential of Vinyl Cyanide on Titan

Recent simulations have indicated that vinyl cyanide is the best candidate molecule for the formation of cell membranes/vesicle structures in Titan's hydrocarbon-rich lakes and seas. Although the existence of vinyl cyanide (C2H3CN) on Titan was previously inferred using Cassini mass spectrometry, a definitive detection has been lacking until now. We report the first spectroscopic detection of vinyl cyanide in Titan's atmosphere, obtained using archival data from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), collected from February to May 2014. We detect the three strongest rotational lines of C2H3CN in the frequency range of 230 to 232 GHz, each with greater than 4 sigma confidence. Radiative transfer modeling suggests that most of the C2H3CN emission originates at altitudes of approx. greater than 200 km, in agreement with recent photochemical models. The vertical column densities implied by our best-fitting models lie in the range of 3.7 x 10(exp 13) to 1.4 x 10(exp 14) cm(exp −2). The corresponding production rate of vinyl cyanide and its saturation mole fraction imply the availability of sufficient dissolved material to form approx. 10(exp 7) cell membranes/cu cm in Titan's sea Ligeia Mare.

Palmer, Maureen Y.↗

NASA NTRS1995

High resolution time interval counter

In recent years, we have developed two types of high resolution, multi-channel time interval counters. In the NIST two-way time transfer MODEM application, the counter is designed for operating primarily in the interrupt-driven mode, with 3 start channels and 3 stop channels. The intended start and stop signals are 1 PPS, although other frequencies can also be applied to start and stop the count. The time interval counters used in the NIST Frequency Measurement and Analysis System are implemented with 7 start channels and 7 stop channels. Four of the 7 start channels are devoted to the frequencies of 1 MHz, 5 MHz or 10 MHz, while triggering signals to all other start and stop channels can range from 1 PPS to 100 kHz. Time interval interpolation plays a key role in achieving the high resolution time interval measurements for both counters. With a 10 MHz time base, both counters demonstrate a single-shot resolution of better than 40 ps, and a stability of better than 5 x 10(exp -12) (sigma(sub chi)(tau)) after self test of 1000 seconds). The maximum rate of time interval measurements (with no dead time) is 1.0 kHz for the counter used in the MODEM application and is 2.0 kHz for the counter used in the Frequency Measurement and Analysis System. The counters are implemented as plug-in units for an AT-compatible personal computer. This configuration provides an efficient way of using a computer not only to control and operate the counters, but also to store and process measured data.

Zhang, Victor S.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Do initial conditions matter? A comparison of model climatologies generated from different initial states

A coarse mesh (8 by 10) 7 layer global climate model was used to compute 15 months of meteorological history in two perpetual January experiments on a water planet (without continents) with a zonally symmetric climatological January sea surface temperature field. In the first of the two water planet experiments the initial atmospheric state was a set of zonal mean values of specific humidity, temperature, and wind at each latitude. In the second experiment the model was initialized with globally uniform mean values of specific humidity and temperature on each sigma level surface, constant surface pressure (1010 mb), and zero wind everywhere. A comparison was made of the mean January climatic states generated by the two water planet experiments. The first two months of each 15 January run were discarded, and 13 month averages were computed from months 3 through 15.

Spar, J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Variations including possible solar cycle variations of stratospheric ozone over central Switzerland

The annual variation of the total amount of ozone over central Switzerland and the partial pressures in each of 7 layers from the surface to 7.8 m zeta shows the pattern representative of mid-latitude ozone: summer maximum in the troposphere, spring maximum in the lower stratosphere up to 30 mb and summer maximum in the middle stratosphere up to approx. mb. It was also shown that at the level of the ozone maximum the ozone partial pressure has a pronounced period of about 26 months. Total ozone and the ozone concentration in the different layers have marginally significant (at plus or minus sigma) correlations with relative sunspot number. The time lag for these correlations is long in the troposphere (about 36 months) but decreases with height to the level of ozone maximum (to about 2 months). A similar analysis of the data derived from the ozonesonde program at Hohenpeissenberg, Germany (GFR) gave completely consistent results with those discussed above.

London, J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Schatten, Kenneth↗