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This lecture discusses stockpile stewardship efforts and the role surveillance plays in the process. Performance of the RTGs is described, and the question of the absence of anticipated He is addressed.
For more than 30 years the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) has provided the scientific underpinnings in nuclear physics and material science needed to ensure the safety and surety of the nuclear stockpile into the future. In addition to national security research, the LANSCE User Facility has a vibrant research program in fundamental science, providing the scientific community with intense sources of neutrons and protons to perform experiments supporting civilian research and the production of medical and research isotopes. Five major experimental facilities operate simultaneously. These facilities contribute to the stockpile stewardship program, produce radionuclides for medical testing, and provide a venue for industrial users to irradiate and test electronics. In addition, they perform fundamental research in nuclear physics, nuclear astrophysics, materials science, and many other areas. The LANSCE User Program plays a key role in training the next generation of top scientists and in attracting the best graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early-career scientists. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) —the principal sponsor of LANSCE—works with the Office of Science and the Office of Nuclear Energy, which have synergistic long-term needs for the linear accelerator and the neutron science that is the heart of LANSCE.
High performance computing (HPC) has been a defining strength of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) since its founding. Livermore scientists have designed and used some of the world’s most powerful computers to drive breakthroughs in nearly every mission area. Today, the Laboratory is recognized as a world leader in the application of HPC to complex science, technology, and engineering challenges. Most importantly, HPC has been integral to the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA’s) Stockpile Stewardship Program—designed to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of our nuclear deterrent without nuclear testing. A critical factor behind Lawrence Livermore’s preeminence in HPC is the ongoing investments made by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program in cutting-edge concepts to enable efficient utilization of these powerful machines. Congress established the LDRD Program in 1991 to maintain the technical vitality of the Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories. Since then, LDRD has been, and continues to be, an essential tool for exploring anticipated needs that lie beyond the planning horizon of our programs and for attracting the next generation of talented visionaries. Through LDRD, Livermore researchers can examine future challenges, propose and explore innovative solutions, and deliver creative approaches to support our missions. The present scientific and technical strengths of the Laboratory are, in large part, a product of past LDRD investments in HPC. Here, we provide seven examples of LDRD projects from the past decade that have played a critical role in building LLNL’s HPC, computer science, mathematics, and data science research capabilities, and describe how they have impacted LLNL’s mission.
The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).
The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well- defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used to determine the total complexity of the proposed warhead option or portions of the warhead option (i.e., a National Work Breakdown Structure code). The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA- 12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC), that has provided the data elicitation, integration and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).
Materials in nuclear and conventional weapons can reach multi-megabar pressures and 1000s of degree temperatures on timescales ranging from microseconds to nanoseconds. Understanding the response of complex materials under these conditions is important for designing and assessing changes to nuclear weapons. In the next few decades, a major concern will be evaluating the behavior of aging materials and remanufactured components. The science to enable the program to underwrite decisions quickly and confidently on use, remanufacturing, and replacement of these materials will be critical to NNSA’s new Stockpile Responsiveness Program. Material response is also important for assessing the risks posed by adversaries or proliferants. Dynamic materials research, which refers to the use of high-speed experiments to produce extreme conditions in matter, is an important part of NNSA’s Stockpile Stewardship Program.
Near-monoenergetic photon sources (MPSs) have the potential to improve sensitivity at greatly reduced dose in existing applications and enable new capabilities in other applications. MPS advantages include the ability to select energy, energy spread, flux, and pulse structures to deliver only the photons needed for the application, while suppressing extraneous dose and background. Some MPSs also offer narrow divergence photon beams which can target dose and/or mitigate scattering contributions to image contrast degradation. Current broad-band, bremsstrahlung photon sources (e.g., linacs and betatrons) deliver unnecessary dose that in some cases also interferes with the signature to be detected and/or restricts operations, and must be collimated (reducing flux) to generate narrow divergence beams. While MPSs can in principle resolve these issues, they are technically challenging to produce. Candidate MPS technologies for nonproliferation applications are now being developed, each of which have different properties (e.g. broad divergence vs. narrow). Within each technology, source parameters trade off against one another (e.g. flux vs. energy spread), representing a large operation space. To guide development, requirements for each application of interest must be defined and simulations conducted to define MPS parameters that deliver benefit relative to current systems. The present project conducted a broad assessment of potential nonproliferation applications where MPSs may provide new capabilities or significant performance enhancement (reported separately), which led to prioritization of several applications for detailed analysis. The applications prioritized were: cargo screening and interdiction of Special Nuclear Materials (SNM), detection of hidden SNM, treaty/dismantlement verification, and spent fuel dry storage cask content verification. High resolution imaging for stockpile stewardship was considered as a sub-area of the treaty topic, as it is also of interest for future treaty use. This report presents higher-fidelity calculations and modeling results to quantitatively evaluate the prioritized applications, and to derive the key MPS properties that drive application benefit. Simulations focused on the conventional signatures of radiography, photofission, and NRF to enable comparison to present methods and evaluation of benefit.
LLNL's Computational Nuclear Physics Group and Nuclear Theory and Modeling Group have col- laborated to create the 2011.2 revised release of the Evaluated Nuclear Data Library (ENDL2011.2). ENDL2011.2 is designed to support LLNL's current and future nuclear data needs and will be em- ployed in nuclear reactor, nuclear security and stockpile stewardship simulations with ASC codes. This database is currently the most complete nuclear database for Monte Carlo and deterministic transport of neutrons and charged particles. This library was assembled with strong support from the ASC PEM and Attribution programs, leveraged with support from Campaign 4 and the DOE/O ce of Science's US Nuclear Data Program. This document lists the revisions made in ENDL2011.2 compared with the data existing in the original ENDL2011.0 release and the ENDL2011.1-rc4 re- lease candidate of April 2015. These changes are made in parallel with some similar revisions for ENDL2009.2.
As an undergraduate at Pomona, Carol Meyers ’00 enjoyed proofs and pure math, but she also had a hankering to solve real-world problems. This eventually led her to discover the field of operations research, in which she earned a PhD from MIT, and from there onto a career at a national laboratory. “National labs are great because they serve a role between academia and industry,” she says, “solving problems too large or too applied for academia, and insufficiently profitdriven for industry.” Her workplace, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, is home to the world’s largest laser, frequent home to the world’s fastest supercomputer, and the namesake to element 116 (Livermorium) on the periodic table. During her 10+ years at the laboratory Carol has worked in the areas of energy grid modernization, nuclear counterterrorism, cyber security, stockpile stewardship, and supercomputing, often as a consultant providing mathematical modeling and optimization expertise. Carol has two young kids and serves as co-chair of the New Moms’ Group at her workplace. “Being in a supportive community of moms has really helped me at work,” she says, “because let’s face it – moms know how to get things done!” “People talk a lot about the importance of networking, but this doesn’t have to mean starting technical discussions with strangers. The ability to bond with and relate to other people is far more important, and many women do this very well. Some of my best work networking connections have come through our employer-affiliated daycare.”
A major goal of the Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) is to deliver validated numerical models, benchmarked against experiments that address relevant and important issues and provide data that stress the codes and our understanding. DOENNSA has made significant investments in major facilities and high-performance computing to successfully execute the SSP. The more information obtained about the physical state of the plasmas produced, the more stringent the test of theories, models, and codes can be, leading to increased confidence in our predictive capability. To fully exploit the world-leading capabilities of the ICF program, a multi-year program to develop and deploy advanced diagnostics has been developed by the expert scientific community. To formalize these activities NNSA’s Acting Director for the Inertial Confinement Fusion Program directed the formation and duties of the National Diagnostics Working Group (NDWG) in a Memorandum 11/3/16 (Appendix A). The NDWG identified eight transformational diagnostics, shown in Table 1, that will provide unprecedented information from experiments in support of the SSP at NIF, Z and OMEGA. Table 1 shows how the missions of the SSP experiments including materials, complex hydrodynamics, radiation flow and effects and thermo-nuclear burn and boost will produce new observables, which will be measured using a variety of largely new diagnostic technologies used in the eight transformational diagnostics. The data provided by these diagnostics will validate and improve the physics contained within the SSP’s simulations and both uncover and quantify important phenomena that lie beyond our present understanding.
The physics and materials science involved in laser materials processing of metals was studied experimentally using custom-built test beds and in situ diagnostics. Special attention was given to laser-based powder bed fusion additive manufacturing processes, a technology critically important to the stockpile stewardship program in NNSA. New light has been shed on several phenomena such as laser-driven spatter, material displacement and morphology changes. The results presented here and in publications generated by this work have proven impactful and useful to both internal and external communities. New directions in additive manufacturing research at LLNL have been enabled, along with new scientific capabilities that can serve future program needs.
Many properties of the high-energy-density environments in nuclear weapons tests, advanced laser-fusion experiments, the interior of stars, and other astrophysical bodies must be inferred from the resulting long-lived radioactive nuclei that are produced. These radioactive nuclei are most easily and sensitively identified by studying the characteristic gamma rays emitted during decay. Measuring a number of decays via detection of the characteristic gamma-rays emitted during the gamma-decay (the gamma-ray branching ratio) of the long-lived fission products is one of the most straightforward and reliable ways to determine the number of fissions that occurred in a nuclear weapon test. The fission products 147 Nd, 144 Ce, 156 Eu, and certain other long-lived isotopes play a crucial role in science-based stockpile stewardship, however, the large uncertainties (about 8%) on the branching ratios measured for these isotopes are currently limiting the usefulness of the existing data [1,2]. We performed highly accurate gamma-ray branching-ratio measurements for a group of high-atomic-number rare earth isotopes to greatly improve the precision and reliability with which the fission yield and reaction products in high-energy-density environments can be determined. We have developed techniques that take advantage of new radioactive-beam facilities, such as DOE's CARIBU located at Argonne National Laboratory, to produce radioactive samples and perform decay spectroscopy measurements. The absolute gamma-ray branching ratios for 147 Nd and 144 Ce are reduced <2% precision. In addition, high-energy monoenergetic neutron beams from the FN Tandem accelerator in TUNL at Duke University was used to produce 167 Tm using the 169 Tm(n,3n) reaction. Fourtime improved branching ratio of 167 Tm is used now to measure reaction-in-flight (RIF) neutrons from a burning DT capsule at NIF [10]. This represents the first measurement of RIF neutrons in any laboratory fusion system, and the magnitude of the signal has important implications for fundamental plasma science and for weapons physics.
LLNL's Computational Nuclear Data and Theory Group have created a 2009.3 revised release of the Evaluated Nuclear Data Library (ENDL2009.3). This library is designed to support LLNL's current and future nuclear data needs and will be employed in nuclear reactor, nuclear security and stockpile stewardship simulations with ASC codes. The ENDL2009 database was the most complete nuclear database for Monte Carlo and deterministic transport of neutrons and charged particles. It was assembled with strong support from the ASC PEM and Attribution programs, leveraged with support from Campaign 4 and the DOE/Office of Science's US Nuclear Data Program. This document lists the revisions and fixes made in a new release called ENDL2009.3, by com- paring with the existing data in the previous release ENDL2009.2. These changes are made in conjunction with the revisions for ENDL2011.3, so that both the .3 releases are as free as possible of known defects.
Benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH) is a pervasive condition of enlargement of the male prostate gland which leads to several urinary difficulties ranging from hesitancy to incontinence to kidney dysfunction in severe cases. Currently the most common therapy is transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) utilizing an electrosurgical device. Although TURP is largely successful, new BPH therapy methods are desired to reduce the cost and recovery time, improve the success rate, and reduce side effects. Recently, lasers have been introduced for this purpose. Indigo Medical Inc. is currently engaged in the development, testing, and preparation for sales of a new diode laser based BPH therapy system. The development is based on laboratory experiments, animal studies, and a limited FDA-approved clinical trial in the US and in other countries. The addition of sophisticated numerical modeling, of the sort that has been highly developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, can greatly aid in the design of the system and treatment protocol. The benefits to DOE include the maintenance and advancement of numerical modeling expertise in radiation-matter interactions of the sort essential for the stockpile stewardship, inertial confinement fusion, and advanced manufacturing, and the push on advanced scientific computational methods, ultimately in areas such as 3-D transport.
The Joint Enhanced Diagnostics Initiative (JEDI) collaboration between the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE) has the goal of enhancing the experimental capabilities of the NIF to enable collaborative experiments of interest to both the U.S. and U.K. stockpile stewardship activities.
This document, the Sandia National Laboratories lntegrated Facilities and lnfrastructure Plan, summarizes long-, mid-, and short-term site planning to support Sandia's mission. High-level direction that influences site development includes the Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan (SSMP) and Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), while the relationship to National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) infrastructure is described in the NNSA Master Asset Plan (MAP). Using the SSMP as an indication of the future workload informs the planning process for facilities and infrastructure. Figure 1 shows the outlook of the NNSAs nuclear weapons modernization programs through the year 2042, which indicates a stable, slightly growing workload.
LLNL’s package management tool, Spack, has reduced software build times from weeks to hours for programmatic codes, and the tool’s popularity has grown beyond the NNSA laboratories. New workflow features and ongoing community-building efforts have led ECP and many top supercomputing sites worldwide to adopt Spack as their official deployment tool. With a community of over 330 Spack contributors, the maintenance burden for over 3,000 open source packages is now shared with other centers. This reduction of general ASC software maintenance costs frees up code development resources to address unique requirements specific to the stockpile stewardship mission.
Opacity is a fundamental property of matter and knowledge of it is required to understand the transport of radiation through a material. Exact knowledge of opacity is crucial in many fields such as astrophysics, which recently produced a white paper on the current state of astrophysical opacities [1], plasma physics, including inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and magnetic confinement fusion, high energy density physics (HEDP), the semiconductor industry [2] and stockpile stewardship. In industry, the accurate knowledge of the opacity of tin is important for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography and the development of processors with smaller components. In astrophysics, Cepheid variable stars are used as “standard candles” for determining the distance to objects. Opacities of these stars are required to understand the relationship between their periodicity, luminosity and distance. Our sun is the most studied star and provides the basis of our understanding for other stars. Yet in significant ways the sun is poorly understood. In recent years, there has been a debate over the abundances of heavy elements (Z > 2) in the solar interior. Current solar atmosphere models [3] find a significantly lower abundance for C, N, and O compared to models used roughly a decade ago. Although solar evolution models have matured, a discrepancy still exists between spectroscopic solar models (which require opacities) with updated abundances, and solar properties inferred from helioseismology and neutrinos [4]. Despite its necessity, opacity is not solved, and is an open and active area of research needed for improving our understanding of plasma physics.