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At least 127 records · Page 7

Study of Antarctic Blowing Snow Storms Using MODIS and CALIOP Observations With a Machine Learning Model

As a common phenomenon over Antarctica, blowing snow (BLSN), especially the large BLSN storms, play an important role in the Antarctic surface mass balance, radiation budget, and planetary boundary layer processes. This study presents the work on BLSN storm identification and analysis with observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite. Spectral analysis shows that BLSN identification is feasible with MODIS daytime data. A random forest machine learning model is developed and observations from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization are used for training. Model performance results show that machine‐learning based classification can achieve over 90% overall accuracy when classifying MODIS pixels into cloud, clear, and BLSN categories. The machine learning model is applied to MODIS observations during the month of October 2009 for BLSN storm analysis. Results show that the size of BLSN storms has a large spectrum and can reach hundreds of thousands km2. The MODIS based BLSN storm frequency map extends the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations coverage limit from 82°S to the South Pole. A BLSN storm belt, which extends from the South Pole region to the coastal area between 130°E and 160°E along the Transantarctic Mountains, provides a potential pathway of snow transport. These results are important in improving the understanding of BLSN impact on Antarctic surface mass balance and boundary layer processes.

Antarctic↗

Interaction of Saturn’s Hexagon with Convective Storms

In March 2020 a convective storm erupted at planetographic latitude 76°N in the southern flank of Saturn’s long-lived hexagonal wave. The storm reached a zonal size of 4,500 km and developed a tail extending zonally 33,000 km. Two new short-lived storms erupted in May in the hexagon edge. These storms formed after the convective storms that took place in 2018 in nearby latitudes. There were no noticeable changes in the zonal profile of Saturn's polar winds in 2018-2020. Measurements of the longitude position of the vertices of the hexagon throughout this period yield a value for its period of rotation equal to that of System III of radio-rotation measured at the time of Voyagers. We report changes in the hexagon clouds related to the activity of the storms. Our study reinforces the idea that Saturn’s hexagon is a well rooted structure with a possible direct relationship with the bulk rotation of the planet.

Convective storms↗

Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics-Based Whole Geospace Modeling

The Starlink satellites launched on 3 February 2022 were lost before they fully arrived in their designated orbits. The loss was attributed to two moderate geomagnetic storms that occurred consecutively on February 3-4. We investigate the thermospheric neutral mass density variation during these storms with the Multiscale Atmosphere-Geospace Environment (MAGE) model, a first-principles, fully coupled geospace model. Simulated neutral density enhancements are validated by Swarm satellite measurements at the altitude of 400-500 km. Comparison with standalone TIEGCM and empirical NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM-2012 models suggests better performance by MAGE in predicting the maximum density enhancement and resolving the gradual recovery process. Along the Starlink satellite orbit in the middle thermosphere (∼ 200 km altitude), MAGE predicts up to 150% density enhancement near the second storm peak while standalone TIEGCM, NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM-2012 suggest only ∼ 50% increase. MAGE also suggests altitudinal, longitudinal, and latitudinal variability of storm-time percentage density enhancement due to height dependent Joule heating deposition per unit mass, thermospheric circulation changes, and travelling atmospheric disturbances. This study demonstrates that a moderate storm can cause substantial density enhancement in the middle thermosphere. Thermospheric mass density strongly depends on the strength, timing, and location of high-latitude energy input, which cannot be fully reproduced with empirical models. A physics-based, fully coupled geospace model that can accurately resolve the high-latitude energy input and its variability is critical to modeling the dynamic response of thermospheric neutral density during storm time.

Starlink↗

Storm-time changes of geomagnetic field at MAGSAT altitudes (325-550 Km) and their comparison with changes at ground locations

The values of H, X, Y, Z at MAGSAT altitudes were first expressed as residuals delta H, delta X, delta Y, delta Z after subtracting the model HMD, XMD, YMD, ZMC. The storm-time variations of H showed that delta H (Dusk) was larger (negative) than delta H (Dawn) and occurred earlier, indicating a sort of hysteresis effect. Effects at MAGSAT altitudes were roughly the same (10% accuracy) as at ground, indicating that these effects were mostly of magnetospheric origin. The delta Y component also showed large storm-time changes. The latitudinal distribution of storm-time delta H showed north-south asymmetries varying in nature as the storm progressed. It seems that the central plane of the storm-time magnetospheric ring current undergoes latitudinal meanderings during the course of the storm.

Parada, N. D. J.↗

A theoretical F region study of ion compositional and temperature variations in response to magnetospheric storm inputs

The response of the high-latitude F region to magnetospheric storm inputs is modelled. During the 'storm', the spatial extent of the auroral oval, the intensity of the precipitating auroral electron energy flux, and the plasma convection pattern were varied with time. During the storm growth phase, the auroral oval expanded, the precipitating electron energy flux increased, and the magnetospheric convection pattern changed from a symmetric two-cell pattern with a 20 kV cross-tail potential to an asymmetric two-cell pattern with a total cross-tail potential of 90 kV. During the storm, there were significant changes in the ion temperature, ion composition, and molecular/atomic ion transition height. The storm time asymmetric convection pattern produced an ion temperature hot spot at the location of the dusk convection cell that contained significantly enhanced NO(+) densities. During the storm recovery phase, the decay of these densities closely followed the decrease in the plasma convection speed.

Sojka, J. J.↗

Zonal wind observations during a geomagnetic storm

In situ measurements taken by the Wind and Temperature Spectrometer (WATS) onboard the Dynamics Explorer 2 spacecraft during a geomagnetic storm display zonal wind velocities that are reduced in the corotational direction as the storm intensifies. The data were taken within the altitudes 275 to 475 km in the dusk local time sector equatorward of the auroral region. Characteristic variations in the value of the Dst index of horizontal geomagnetic field strength are used to monitor the storm evolution. The detected global rise in atmospheric gas temperature indicates the development of thermospheric heating. Concurrent with that heating, reductions in corotational wind velocities were measured equatorward of the auroral region. Just after the sudden commencement, while thermospheric heating is intense in both hemispheres, eastward wind velocities in the northern hemisphere show reductions ranging from 500 m/s over high latitudes to 30 m/s over the geomagnetic equator. After 10 hours storm time, while northern thermospheric heating is diminishing, wind velocity reductions, distinct from those initially observed, begin to develop over southern latitudes. In the latter case, velocity reductions range from 300 m/s over the highest southern latitudes to 150 m/s over the geomagnetic equator and extend into the Northern Hemisphere. The observations highlight the interhemispheric asymmetry in the development of storm effects detected as enhanced gas temperatures and reduced eastward wind velocities. Zonal wind reductions over high latitudes can be attributed to the storm induced equatorward spread of westward polar cap plasma convection and the resulting plasma-neutral collisions. However, those collisions are less significant over low latitudes; so zonal wind reductions over low latitudes must be attributed to an equatorward extension of a thermospheric circulation pattern disrupted by high latitude collisions between neutrals transported via eastward winds and ions convecting westward.

Miller, N. J.↗

Study of pre-storm environment by using rawinsonde and satellite observations

Rawinsonde and satellite remote sensing data were utilized to examine the prestorm environment and mechanisms for the initiation of four groups of severe storms. The storms in Altus, Oklahoma, Pampas, Texas, Bennett, Colorado, and Red River Valley, Oklahoma are described. The geographical distributions of the areas of high moisture concentration and variations of tropopause heights for the storm groups are analyzed. It is detected that in the area of a low-level high concentration of moisture, the local tropopause height is lowest at the time of the storm cloud formation and development, and the potential energy storage per unit areas for the overshootiong clouds penetrating above the tropopause is related to the intensity of the storms produced. Numerical cloud modeling was performed for the storms. The model data are compared with the satellite and rawinsonde observations, and it is noted that the data correlate well.

Hung, R. J.↗

Interannual variability of global dust storms on Mars

Global dust storms on Mars occur in some years but not in others. In years with global dust storms, dust is raised in the Southern Hemisphere and spread over much of the planet by an intensified Hadley circulation. In years without global dust storms, dust is raised in the Northern Hemisphere by relatively active midlatitude storm systems, but does not spread globally. In both cases the dusty season is winter in the north. It is shown from numerical simulations that a Northern Hemisphere dust haze weakens the intensity of the cross equatorial Hadley circulation and the contribution it makes to the surface stress in the Southern Hemisphere. This, in turn, reduces the possibility of global dust storm development. The interannual variability is the result either of a competition between circulation in opposite hemispheres, in which case the variability has a random component; or it is the result of the cycling of dust between hemispheres, in which case the variability is related to the characteristics of global dust storms themselves.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Deuterium in North Atlantic storm tops

During the ERICA project in 1989, ice crystals were collected from the tops of two winter storms and one broad cirrus cloud. Deuterium concentration in the storm ice samples, together with a model of isotope fractionation, are used to determine the temperature where the ice was formed. Knowledge of the ice formation temperature allows us to determine whether the ice has fallen or been lofted to the altitude of collection. In both storms, the estimated fall distance decreases upward. In the 21 January storm, the fall distance decreases to zero at the cloud top. In the 23 January storm, the fall distance decreases to zero at a point 2 km below the cloud top and appears to become negative above, indicating lofted ice. Cloud particle data from the cloud tops show an ice-to-vapor ratio greater than one and indicate the presence of particles with small terminal velocities; both observations support the idea of ice lofting. The satellite-derived cloud tops lie well below the actual cloud top (e.g., 2.5 km below on 23 January), indicating that the lofted ice in winter storms may not be detectable from space using IR radiance techniques. A comparison of deuterium in cloud-top ice and clear-air vapor suggests that even in winter, when vertical air motions are relatively weak, lofted ice crystals are the dominant source of water vapor in the upper troposphere.

Smith, Ronald B.↗

Northern hemisphere dust storms on Mars

Dust storms in the northern hemisphere of Mars appear to be less common than the more familiar southern hemisphere storms, and essentially, no activity north of about 30 latittude has been documented. The data are, however, subject to an observational bias because Mars is near aphelion during oppositions, which occur during the most likely seasons for dust activity in the north. The amount of dust activity in the northern hemisphere is clearly very relevant to the role of atmospheric transport in the dust cycle. The classic global storms that occur during spring in the southern hemisphere are observed to transport dust from sources in the southern hemisphere to sinks or temporary depositories in the north. The question of whether atmospheric transport can close the dust cycle, i.e., return the dust to the southern hemisphere sources on some timescale, is clearly relevant to the solution of the puzzle of how the dust storm cycle is modulated, i.e., why storms occur in some years but not in others. There are data that suggest that the spring/early summer season in the northern hemisphere of Mars during the year following the major 1977 storms observed by Viking was very dusty. A number of observations of the vicinity of the receding north polar cap showed clear evidence of substantial dust activity in the sub-Arctic region.

James, P. B.↗

Effects of orbit progression on the radiation exposures from solar proton fluxes in low Earth orbit under geomagnetic storm conditions

The present study examines the effects of orbit progression on the exposures within a Space Station Freedom module in a 51.6-degree inclined orbit at 450 km. The storm evolution is modeled after the November 1960 event, and the solar proton flux evolution is taken from the August 1972 solar proton event. The effects of a strong magnetic shock, such as was observed during the October 1989 event, is also modeled. The statistics on hourly average storm fields for the last forty years reveal that the largest geomagnetic storms geomagnetic storms approach a Dst value of -500 nanotesla at the storm peak. Similarly, one of the largest satellite-measured proton flux (greater than 10 MeV) for space exposures is the event of August 1972. The effects of orbit progression (advance of the line of nodes) is examined for the above conditions to study the variation of exposures under differing times of occurrence of the solar proton peak intensity, attainment of geomagnetic storm maximum, and the location of the line of nodes of the last geomagnetically protected orbit. The impact of the inherent inhomogeneity of the space station module is examined as a limiting factor on exposure with regard to the need of additional parasitic shielding.

Nealy, J. E.↗

The Effects of Neutral Inertia on Ionospheric Currents in the High-Latitude Thermosphere Following a Geomagnetic Storm

Results of an experimental and theoretical investigation into the effects of the time dependent neutral wind flywheel on high-latitude ionospheric electrodynamics are presented. The results extend our previous work which used the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere/Ionosphere General Circulation Model (NCAR TIGCM) to theoretically simulate flywheel effects in the aftermath of a geomagnetic storm. The previous results indicated that the neutral circulation, set up by ion-neutral momentum coupling in the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, is maintained for several hours after the main phase has ended and may dominate height-integrated Hall currents and field-aligned currents for up to 4-5 hours. We extend the work of Deng et al. to include comparisons between the calculated time-dependent ionospheric Hall current system in the storm-time recovery period and that measured by instruments on board the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite. Also, comparisons are made between calculated field-aligned currents and those derived from DE 2 magnetometer measurements. These calculations also allow us to calculate the power transfer rate (sometimes called the Poynting flux) between the magnetosphere and ionosphere. The following conclusions have been drawn: (1) Neutral winds can contribute significantly to the horizontal ionospheric current system in the period immediately following the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, especially over the magnetic polar cap and in regions of ion drift shear. (2) Neutral winds drive Hall currents that flow in the opposite direction to those driven by ion drifts. (3) The overall morphology of the calculated field-aligned current system agrees with previously published observations for the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(sub Z) southward conditions, although the region I and region 2 currents are smeared by the TI(ICM model grid resolution. (4) Neutral winds can make significant contributions to the field-aligned current system when B(sub Z) northward conditions prevail following the main phase of a storm, but can account for only a fraction of the observed currents. (5) DE 2 measurements provide a demonstration of "local" (satellite-altitude) flywheel effects. (6) On the assumption that the magnetosphere acts as an insulator, we calculate neutral-wind-induced polarization electric fields of approx. 20-30 kV in the period immediately following the geomagnetic storm.

Deng, W.↗

Magnetic Storms

One of the oldest mysteries in geomagnetism is the linkage between solar and geomagnetic activity. The 11-year cycles of both the numbers of sunspots and Earth geomagnetic storms were first noted by Sabine. A few years later, speculation on a causal relationship between flares and storms arose when Carrington reported that a large magnetic storm followed the great September 1859 solar flare. However, it was not until this century that a well-accepted statistical survey on large solar flares and geomagnetic storms was performed, and a significant correlation between flares and geomagnetic storms was noted. Although the two phenomena, one on the Sun and the other on the Earth, were statistically correlated, the exact physical linkage was still an unknown at this time. Various hypotheses were proposed, but it was not until interplanetary spacecraft measurements were available that a high-speed plasma stream rich in helium was associated with an intense solar flare. The velocity of the solar wind increased just prior to and during the helium passage, identifying the solar ejecta for the first time. Space plasma measurements and Skylab's coronagraph images of coronal mass elections (CMES) from the Sun firmly established the plasma link between the Sun and the Earth. One phenomenon associated with magnetic storms is brilliant "blood" red auroras, as shown.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗

Total Lightning Activity Associated with Tornadic Storms

Severe storms often have high flash rates (in excess of one flash per second) and are dominated by intracloud lightning activity. In addition to the extraordinary flash rates, there is a second distinguishing lightning characteristic of severe storms that seems to be important. When the total lightning history is examined, one finds sudden increases in the lightning rate, which we refer to as lightning "jumps," that precede the occurrence of severe weather by ten or more minutes. These jumps are typically 30-60 flashes/min, and are easily identified as anomalously large derivatives in the flash rate. This relationship is associated with updraft intensification and updraft strength is an important factor in storm severity (through the accumulation of condensate aloft and the stretching of vorticity). In several cases, evidence for diminishment of midlevel rotation and the descent of angular momentum from aloft is present prior to the appearance of the surface tornado. Based on our experience with severe and tornadic storms in Central Florida, we believe the total lightning may augment the more traditional use of NEXRAD radars and storm spotters. However, a more rigorous relation of these jumps to storm kinematics is needed if we are to apply total lightning in a decision tree that leads to improved warning lead times and decreased false alarm rates.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Storm-driven Mixing and Potential Impact on the Arctic Ocean

Observations of the ocean, atmosphere, and ice made by Ice-Ocean Environmental Buoys (IOEBs) indicate that mixing events reaching the depth of the halocline have occurred in various regions in the Arctic Ocean. Our analysis suggests that these mixing events were mechanically forced by intense storms moving across the buoy sites. In this study, we analyzed these mixing events in the context of storm developments that occurred in the Beaufort Sea and in the general area just north of Fram Strait, two areas with quite different hydrographic structures. The Beaufort Sea is strongly influenced by inflow of Pacific water through Bering Strait, while the area north of Fram Strait is directly affected by the inflow of warm and salty North Atlantic water. Our analyses of the basin-wide evolution of the surface pressure and geostrophic wind fields indicate that the characteristics of the storms could be very different. The buoy-observed mixing occurred only in the spring and winter seasons when the stratification was relatively weak. This indicates the importance of stratification, although the mixing itself was mechanically driven. We also analyze the distribution of storms, both the long-term climatology as well as the patterns for each year in the last two decades. The frequency of storms is also shown to be correlated- (but not strongly) to Arctic Oscillation indices. This study indicates that the formation of new ice that leads to brine rejection is unlikely the mechanism that results in the type of mixing that could overturn the halocline. On the other hand, synoptic-scale storms can force mixing deep enough to the halocline and thermocline layer. Despite a very stable stratification associated with the Arctic halocline, the warm subsurface thermocline water is not always insulated from the mixed layer.

Yang, Jiayan↗

Plasmaspheric Mass Loss and Refilling as a Result of a Magnetic Storm

Using the sounding measurements from the radio plasma imager on IMAGE, and a plasma density inversion algorithm, we derive the plasma density profiles along the magnetic field in a few L-shells every 14 hours at magnetic local noon before, during, and after the March 31,2001 magnetic storm. An empirical model of the plasmaspheric plasma density distribution is derived as a reference using the measurements before the storm. During the storm, the equatorial plasma was substantially depleted in a range of L-shells. The flux tubes were refilled after the storm. The filling ratio, the equatorial plasma density normalized by its quiet-time value before the storm, is introduced to assess the time evolution of the depletion and refilling processes. The depletion, more than two thirds of the quiet time content, appeared to occur rather quickly after the storm onset, as determined by the limited temporal resolution of the measurements. The refilling proceeded, although more slowly than the depletion process, significantly faster than the theoretical prediction of a 3-day time scale. Dynamic structures are observed in situ and confirmed by the extreme ultraviolet imager (EUV) measurements.

Reinisch, B. W.↗

Pulsing Inertial Oscillation, Supercell Storms, and Surface Mesonetwork Data

The pulsing inertial oscillation (PIO) model is a nonlinear, time-dependent, translating vortex solution of the inviscid, compressible fluid dynamic equations in the middle troposphere. The translation of this vortex during a pulse is strikingly similar to that of a supercell storm -- a rotating thunderstorm that can generate tornadoes and hail. Two studies were performed to test the hypothesis that some supercell storms are manifestations of a PIO pulse. The first study applied the model to an intense interior draft whose buoyancy was bounded by a temperature excess of +/- 12 K. The peak updraft speed achieved was 41.5 m/ s and the peak Rossby number was 92.9. The study also pointed to an advanced concept for attaining higher values. The second study applied the PIO model to a supercell storm as a whole and succeeded in replicating its bulk properties, such as mesocyclonic circulation, net mass and moisture influxes, and time track. This study also identified a critical feature of the PIO model that could be tested against storm data: The average vertical draft is downward before the turn in the storm track and upward afterwards. In the conventional theory, the average vertical draft is upward from storm inception until dissipation. These differing draft predictions were compared with the best available data, which are surface mesonetwork data. These data were found to support the PIO model. However, surface data alone are not conclusive, and further measurements are warranted.

Costen, R. C.↗

Lightning Mapping and the Nowcasting of Severe Storms

This paper describes a successful research and operational collaboration between NASA scientists and NWS forecasters to improve severe stor m warnings using real-time data from a regional VHF total lightning mapping array (LMA). Key objectives of our research using LMA data ar e: a) Identification of intensifying and weakening storms using the time rate-of-change of total flash rate; b) Improved severe storm poten tial situational awareness; c) Evaluation of the potential of total f lash rate trend to improve severe storm probability of detection (POD ) and lead time; and d) Validation of mesoscale model forecasts of th understorm initiation. The LMA data are distributed for ingest and di splay in the WFO AWIPS decision support system, and archived at each WFO for case studies, event playbacks, and assessments using the NWS Warning Event Simulator. The Huntsville WFO has upgraded severe thund erstorm warnings to verified tornado warnings and avoided a false ala rm on a severe storm through the added information on storm growth, intensification, and decay that can be deduced from the magnitude and temporal trend of total flash rates. We present detailed case studies of the observed relationships between lightning activity and tornadi c storm development as determined by radar reflectivity and velocity fields, and thunderstorms forecast by the Weather Research and Foreca st (WRF) model. From these collaborative studies, forecasters can eva luate the added value of total lightning data within the forecast and warning decision-making process (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport) .

Goodman, S.↗