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The structure of the heliospheric magnetic field changes substantially during the 11 year sunspot cycle. Its configuration for the period 1976 through 1982 using a potential field model was calculated. The structure during the rising phase, maximum, and early decline of sunspot cycle 21, from 1978 to 1982 is considered.
Twenty years of solar magnetograph and in-ecliptic IMF measurements are used to verify that the radial IMF component (B sub r) can be approximated by a superposition of the sun's inclined magnetic dipole moment and a current sheet normal to the dipole axis. The net field is found to be about three times stronger along the dipole axis than near the current sheet. Over the sunspot cycle, the absolute value of B sub r should undergo the least modulation near the heliographic equator and the greatest modulation above the sun's poles, where, at 1 AU, it varies systematically between about 10 nT near sunspot minimum and about 1 nT near sunspot maximum. The latitudinal gradients in the absolute value of B sub r are expected to be steepest around sunspot minimum and flattest near sunspot maximum. It is predicted that Ulysses will encounter very strong fields when it flies over the solar poles during the declining phase of sunspot cycle 22.
A transport equation which describes the evolution of the large-scale magnetic field of the sun was solved numerically. Data derived from solar magnetic observations are used to initialize the computations and to account for the emergence of new magnetic flux during the sunspot cycle. The objective is to assess the ability of the model to reproduce the observed evolution of the field patterns. Recent results from simulations of individual active regions over a few solar rotations and of the magnetic field of the sun over sunspot cycle 21 are discussed.
The ascending and descending inflection points and rates of growth and decay at specific times during the sunspot cycle are examined as predictors for future activity. On average, the ascending inflection point occurs about 1-2 yr after sunspot minimum amplitude (Rm) and the descending inflection point occurs about 6-7 yr after Rm. The ascending inflection point and the inferred slope (including the 12-mo moving average (12-mma) of (Delta)R (the month-to-month change in the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number (R)) at the ascending inflection point provide strong indications as to the expected size of the ongoing cycle s sunspot maximum amplitude (RM), while the descending inflection point appears to provide an indication as to the expected length of the ongoing cycle. The value of the 12-mma of (Delta)R at elapsed time T = 27 mo past the epoch of RM (E(RM)) seems to provide a strong indication as to the expected size of Rm for the following cycle. The expected Rm for cycle 24 is 7.6 +/- 4.4 (the 90-percent prediction interval), occurring before September 2008. Evidence is also presented for secular rises in selected cycle-related parameters and for preferential grouping of sunspot cycles by amplitude and/or period.
Highly relativistic electron precipitation events (HRE's) can provide a major source of energy affecting mesospheric constituents and ionization. Based on satellite data, these events are most pronounced near the minimum of the solar sunspot cycle, increasing in intensity, spectral hardness, and frequency of occurrence as the solar cycle declines. Since such events can be sustained up to several days, their integrated effect in the mesosphere can dominate over those of other energy sources such as relativistic electron precipitation events (REP's) and auroral precipitation. The energy deposition data to be discussed and analyzed were obtained by rocket at Poker Flat, Alaska, in May 1990 during a modest HRE observed at midday near the peak of the sunspot cycle. Using a NASA two dimensional model, significant enhancement of OH and depletion of O3 at 75 +/- 10 km altitude from the measured radiation are found. Estimates of enhanced effects were made for more intense HRE events, as might be expected during solar minimum. By causing O3 depletion, the electron precipitation can also regulate the penetration of solar UV radiation, which could affect the thermal properties of the mesosphere.
We use 'stackplot' displays to compare observations of the photospheric magnetic field during sunspot cycle 21 with simulations based on the flux-transport model. Adopting nominal rates of diffusion, differential rotation, and meridional flow, we obtain slanted patterns similar to those of the observed field, even when the sources of flux are assigned random longitudes in the model. At low latitudes, the slopes of the nearly vertical patterns of simulated field are sensitive to the rotation rate used in the calculation, and insensitive to the rates of diffusion and flow during much of the sunspot cycle. Good agreement between the observed and simulated patterns requires a synodic equatorial rotation period of 26.75 +/- 0.05 days.
The rate of occurrence of coronal and interplanetary phenomena during the solar sunspot cycle was studied based on nearly continuous satellite data for long-duration events in the period 1969-1982. The data were obtained using the NRL SOLRAD and the NOAA GOES spacecraft for each year in the interval. The duration of the X-ray events was defined as the time for the logarithm of the 1-8 A flux to return to approximately 10 percent of the pre-event level. The total number of X-ray events is plotted next to the annual sunspot number for the interval 1969-1982. It is shown that the long duration of X-ray events was not related to the sunspot cycle, particularly events of 6 hr or more.
Long-term variations in the solar total irradiance found in the ACRIM I experiment on the SMM satellite have revealed a downward trend during the declining phase of solar cycle 21 of the sunspot cycle, a flat period between mid-1095 and mid-1987, and an upturn in late 1987 which suggests a direct correlation of luminosity and solar active region population. If the upturn continues into the activity maximum of solar cycle 22, a relation between solar activity and luminosity of possible climatological significance could be ascertained. The best-fit relationship for the variation of total irradiance S with sunspot number Rz and 10-cm flux F(10) are S = 1366.82 + 7.71 x 10 to the -3rd Rz and S = 1366.27 + 8.98 x 10 to the -3rd F(10)(W/sq m). These findings could be used to approximate total irradiance variations over the periods for which these indices have been compiled.
A simple method for monitoring the nearness and size of conventional cycle maximum for an ongoing sunspot cycle is examined. The method uses the observed maximum daily value and the maximum monthly mean value of international sunspot number and the maximum value of the 2-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number to effect the estimation. For cycle 23, a maximum daily value of 246, a maximum monthly mean of 170.1, and a maximum 2-mo moving average of 148.9 were each observed in July 2000. Taken together, these values strongly suggest that conventional maximum amplitude for cycle 23 would be approx. 124.5, occurring near July 2002 +/-5 mo, very close to the now well-established conventional maximum amplitude and occurrence date for cycle 23-120.8 in April 2000.
Scintillation observations of satellite signals noting latitude, diurnal, seasonal and sunspot cycle variations
Forecasts of solar and geomagnetic activity are critical since these quantities are such important inputs to the thermospheric density models. At this time in the history of solar science there is no way to make such a forecast from first principles. Physical theory applied to the Sun is developing rapidly, but is still primitive. Techniques used for forecasting depend upon the observations over about 130 years, which is only twelve solar cycles. It has been noted that even-numbered cycles systematically tend to be smaller than the odd-numbered ones by about 20 percent. Another observation is that for the last 12 cycle pairs, an even-numbered sunspot cycle looks rather like the next odd-numbered cycle, but with the top cut off. These observations are examples of approximate periodicities that forecasters try to use to achieve some insight into the nature of an upcoming cycle. Another new and useful forecasting aid is a correlation that has been noted between geomagnetic indices and the size of the next solar cycle. Some best estimates are given concerning both activities.
Understanding how the Sun changes though its 11-year sunspot cycle and how these changes affect the vast space around the Sun the heliosphere has been one of the principal objectives of space research since the advent of the space age. This book presents the evolution of the heliosphere through an entire solar activity cycle. The last solar cycle (cycle 23) has been the best observed from both the Earth and from a fleet of spacecraft. Of these, the joint ESA-NASA Ulysses probe has provided continuous observations of the state of the heliosphere since 1990 from a unique vantage point, that of a nearly polar orbit around the Sun. Ulysses results affect our understanding of the heliosphere from the interior of the Sun to the interstellar medium - beyond the outer boundary of the heliosphere. Written by scientists closely associated with the Ulysses mission, the book describes and explains the many different aspects of changes in the heliosphere in response to solar activity. In particular, the authors describe the rise in solar ESA and NASA have now unamiously agreed a third extension to operate the highly successful Ulysses spacecraft until March 2008 and, in 2007 and 2008, the European-built space probe will fly over the poles of the Sun for a third time. This will enable Ulysses to add an important chapter to its survey of the high-latitude heliosphere and this additional material would be included in a 2nd edition of this book.
During sunspot cycles 20 and 21, the maximum in smoothed 10.7-cm solar radio flux occurred about 1.5 yr after the maximum smoothed sunspot number, whereas during cycles 18 and 19 no lag was observed. Thus, although 10.7-cm radio flux and Zurich sunspot number are highly correlated, they are not interchangeable, especially near solar maximum. The 10.7-cm flux more closely follows the number of sunspots visible on the solar disk, while the Zurich sunspot number more closely follows the number of sunspot groups. The number of sunspots in an active region is one measure of the complexity of the magnetic structure of the region, and the coincidence in the maxima of radio flux and number of sunspots apparently reflects higher radio emission from active regions of greater magnetic complexity. The presence of a lag between sunspot-number maximum and radio-flux maximum in some cycles but not in others argues that some aspect of the average magnetic complexity near solar maximum must vary from cycle to cycle. A speculative possibility is that the radio-flux lag discriminates between long-period and short-period cycles, being another indicator that the solar cycle switches between long-period and short-period modes.
We have analyzed 15-19 yr of photoelectric photometry, obtained manually and with automated telescopes, of the chromospherically active binaries lambda And, sigma Gem, II Peg, and V711 Tau. These observations let us identify individual dark starspots on the stellar surfaces from periodic dimming of the starlight, follow the evolution of these spots, and search for long-term cyclic changes in the properties of these starspots that might reveal magnetic cycles analogous to the Sun's 11 yr sunspot cycle. We developed a computer code to fit a simple two-spot model to our observed light curves that allows us to extract the most easily determinable and most reliable spot parameters from the light curves, i.e., spot longitudes and radii. We then used these measured properties to identify individual spots and to chart their life histories by constructing migration and amplitude curves. We identified and followed 11 spots in lambda And, 16 in sigma Gem, 12 in II Peg, and 15 in V711 Tau. Lifetimes of individual spots ranged from a few months to longer than 6 yr. Differential rotation coefficients, estimated from the observed range of spot rotation periods for each star and defined by equation (2), were 0.04 for lambda And, 0.038 for sigma Gem, 0.005 for II Peg, and 0.006 for V711 Tau, versus 0.19 for the Sun. We searched for cyclic changes in mean brightness, B-V color index, and spot rotation period as evidence for long-term cycles. Of these, long-term variability in mean brightness appears to offer the best evidence for such cycles in these four stars. Cycles of 11.1 yr for lambda And, 8.5 yr for sigma Gem, 11 yr for II Peg, and 16 yr V711 Tau are implied by these mean brightness changes. Cyclic changes in spot rotation period were found in lambda And and possibly II Peg. Errors in B-V were too large for any long-term changes to be detectable.
A solar cycle statistical model has been developed based on the accumulating cycle sunspot data to estimate future levels of the solar cycle activity. Since the current solar cycle 24 has progressed about three years, the cycle activity levels are estimated with an accurately defined solar minimum 24. Then, solar cycle 24 is projected with the cycle activity levels using the statistical model. The projection of solar cycle 24 is then coupled to space related quantities of interest to radiation protection, because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by the degree of disturbance in the solar surface and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The resultant projection of solar cycle 24 provides a basis for estimating exposure in future space missions, and projection errors can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.
Although most of the magnetic flux observed on the sun originates in the low-latitude sunspot belts, this flux is gradually dispersed over a much wider range of latitudes by supergranular convective motions and meridional circulation. Numerical simulations show how these transport processes interact over the 11-year sunspot cycle to produce a strong 'topknot' polar field, whose existence near sunspot minimum is suggested by the observed strength of the interplanetary magnetic field and by the observed areal extent of polar coronal holes. The required rates of diffusion and flow are consistent with the decay rates of active regions and with the rotational properties of the large-scale solar magnetic field.
Heliospheric current sheet tilt evolves systematically over the solar cycle. Here we show that this evolution is different than the sunspot cycle and that tilt for the period 1992-1996 can be predicted using persistence. That is, the tilt over the coming cycle will be the same as for the past cycle. The Ulysses spacecraft has passed Jupiter and is moving out of the plane of the ecliptic, so we use the prediction of the changing heliospheric current sheet tilt to predict that Ulysses will pass beyond the envelope, or maximum latitude, of the heliospheric current sheet in November 1993.
Solar activity predictions using the data assimilation approach have demonstrated great potential to build reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to a non-linear dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. These developments assume an empirical relationship between the mean toroidal magnetic field flux and the sunspot number. Estimated from the sunspot number series, variations of the toroidal field have been used to assimilate the data into the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin (PKR) dynamo model by applying the EnKF method. The dynamo model describes the evolution of the toroidal and poloidal components of the magnetic field and the magnetic helicity. Full-disk magnetograms provide more accurate and complete input data by constraining both the toroidal and poloidal global field components, but these data are available only for the last four solar cycles. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of limited time series observations on the accuracy of solar activity predictions. We present EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach.