Using MOC and MOLA Data to Assess Landing Site Safety
Techniques for Using MOC and MOLA Data for Constraining Landing Site Safety are described. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.
Anderson, F. S.↗
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Assessing Factors of Safety, Margins of Safety, and Reliability of Thermal Protection Systems
This paper provides formally derived definitions for Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) factors of safety and margins of safety borrowing from machine design approaches. The new factors of safety and margins of safety definitions are quite simple and easy to use, and should provide improved comparison of design safety and margins of past, present and future vehicles, These definitions are then applied to several entry vehicles, including Apollo, the Space Shuttle, the Mars Viking and Pathfinder vehicles, and the Pioneer Venus entry vehicle for example and clarity, and to aid in developing a database of previous TPS design experience. In addition to the factors and margins of safety, definitions of computed reliabilities incorporation the reliability index used in machine design are also developed and presented. Adoption and use of the reliability index will hopefully considerably aid the optimization of TPS design for future vehicles.
Rasky, Daniel J.↗
Perspective on Probabilistic Methods for Safety and Reliability Assessments
No abstract available
Groen, Frank J.↗
Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): an Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment
For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a probable offnominal suborbital/orbital atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, and validation of the SPEAD analysis tool. SPEAD is applicable for Earth or Mars, with the option for 3 or 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) trajectory propagation. The atmosphere and aerodynamics data are supplied in tables, for linear interpolation of up to 4 independent variables. The gravitation model can include up to 20 zonal harmonic coefficients. The modeling of a single motor is available and can be adapted to multiple motors. For thermal analysis, the aerodynamic radiative and free-molecular/continuum convective heating, black-body radiative cooling, conductive heat transfer between adjacent nodes, and node ablation are modeled. In a 6- DOF simulation, the local convective heating on a node is a function of Mach, angle-ofattack, and sideslip angle, and is dependent on 1) the location of the node in the spacecraft and its orientation to the flow modeled by an exposure factor, and 2) the geometries of the spacecraft and the node modeled by a heating factor and convective area. Node failure is evaluated using criteria based on melting temperature, reference heat load, g-load, or a combination of the above. The failure of a liquid propellant tank is evaluated based on burnout flux from nucleate boiling or excess internal pressure. Following a component failure, updates are made as needed to the spacecraft mass and aerodynamic properties, nodal exposure and heating factors, and nodal convective and conductive areas. This allows the trajectory to be propagated seamlessly in a single run, inclusive of the trajectories of components that have separated from the spacecraft. The node ablation simulates the decreasing mass and convective/reference areas, and variable heating factor. A built-in database provides the thermo-mechanical properties of For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a probable offnominal suborbital/orbital atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, and validation of the SPEAD analysis tool. SPEAD is applicable for Earth or Mars, with the option for 3 or 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) trajectory propagation. The atmosphere and aerodynamics data are supplied in tables, for linear interpolation of up to 4 independent variables. The gravitation model can include up to 20 zonal harmonic coefficients. The modeling of a single motor is available and can be adapted to multiple motors. For thermal analysis, the aerodynamic radiative and free-molecular/continuum convective heating, black-body radiative cooling, conductive heat transfer between adjacent nodes, and node ablation are modeled. In a 6- DOF simulation, the local convective heating on a node is a function of Mach, angle-ofattack, and sideslip angle, and is dependent on 1) the location of the node in the spacecraft and its orientation to the flow modeled by an exposure factor, and 2) the geometries of the spacecraft and the node modeled by a heating factor and convective area. Node failure is evaluated using criteria based on melting temperature, reference heat load, g-load, or a combination of the above. The failure of a liquid propellant tank is evaluated based on burnout flux from nucleate boiling or excess internal pressure. Following a component failure, updates are made as needed to the spacecraft mass and aerodynamic properties, nodal exposure and heating factors, and nodal convective and conductive areas. This allows the trajectory to be propagated seamlessly in a single run, inclusive of the trajectories of components that have separated from the spacecraft. The node ablation simulates the decreasing mass and convective/reference areas, and variable heating factor. A built-in database provides the thermo-mechanical properties of
Ling, Lisa↗
NASA Aviation Safety Program Systems Analysis/Program Assessment Metrics Review
The goal of this project is to evaluate the metrics and processes used by NASA's Aviation Safety Program in assessing technologies that contribute to NASA's aviation safety goals. There were three objectives for reaching this goal. First, NASA's main objectives for aviation safety were documented and their consistency was checked against the main objectives of the Aviation Safety Program. Next, the metrics used for technology investment by the Program Assessment function of AvSP were evaluated. Finally, other metrics that could be used by the Program Assessment Team (PAT) were identified and evaluated. This investigation revealed that the objectives are in fact consistent across organizational levels at NASA and with the FAA. Some of the major issues discussed in this study which should be further investigated, are the removal of the Cost and Return-on-Investment metrics, the lack of the metrics to measure the balance of investment and technology, the interdependencies between some of the metric risk driver categories, and the conflict between 'fatal accident rate' and 'accident rate' in the language of the Aviation Safety goal as stated in different sources.
Louis, Garrick E.↗
Processes of technology assessment: The National Transportation Safety Board
The functions and operations of the Safety Board as related to technology assessment are described, and a brief history of the Safety Board is given. Recommendations made for safety in all areas of transportation and the actions taken are listed. Although accident investigation is an important aspect of NTSB's activity, it is felt that the greatest contribution is in pressing for development of better accident prevention programs. Efforts of the Safety Board in changing transportation technology to improve safety and prevent accidents are illustrated.
Weiss, E.↗
Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): An Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment
For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a potential off-nominal atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. The software and methodology have been validated against actual flights, telemetry data, and validated software, and safety/risk analyses were performed for various programs using SPEAD. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, validation, and application of the SPEAD analysis tool.
Ling, Lisa↗
Impact of Pilot Delay and Non-Responsiveness on the Safety Performance of Airborne Separation
Assessing the safety effects of prediction errors and uncertainty on automationsupported functions in the Next Generation Air Transportation System concept of operations is of foremost importance, particularly safety critical functions such as separation that involve human decision-making. Both ground-based and airborne, the automation of separation functions must be designed to account for, and mitigate the impact of, information uncertainty and varying human response. This paper describes an experiment that addresses the potential impact of operator delay when interacting with separation support systems. In this study, we evaluated an airborne separation capability operated by a simulated pilot. The experimental runs are part of the Safety Performance of Airborne Separation (SPAS) experiment suite that examines the safety implications of prediction errors and system uncertainties on airborne separation assistance systems. Pilot actions required by the airborne separation automation to resolve traffic conflicts were delayed within a wide range, varying from five to 240 seconds while a percentage of randomly selected pilots were programmed to completely miss the conflict alerts and therefore take no action. Results indicate that the strategicAirborne Separation Assistance System (ASAS) functions exercised in the experiment can sustain pilot response delays of up to 90 seconds and more, depending on the traffic density. However, when pilots or operators fail to respond to conflict alerts the safety effects are substantial, particularly at higher traffic densities.
Consiglio, Maria↗
Software Safety Risk in Legacy Safety-Critical Computer Systems
Safety-critical computer systems must be engineered to meet system and software safety requirements. For legacy safety-critical computer systems, software safety requirements may not have been formally specified during development. When process-oriented software safety requirements are levied on a legacy system after the fact, where software development artifacts don't exist or are incomplete, the question becomes 'how can this be done?' The risks associated with only meeting certain software safety requirements in a legacy safety-critical computer system must be addressed should such systems be selected as candidates for reuse. This paper proposes a method for ascertaining formally, a software safety risk assessment, that provides measurements for software safety for legacy systems which may or may not have a suite of software engineering documentation that is now normally required. It relies upon the NASA Software Safety Standard, risk assessment methods based upon the Taxonomy-Based Questionnaire, and the application of reverse engineering CASE tools to produce original design documents for legacy systems.
Hill, Janice↗
VEG-04 Pick-and-Eat Crop Production and Human Research on the International Space Station
Growing fresh, nutritious, palatable produce for crew consumption during spaceflight may provide health-promoting, bioavailable nutrients and enhance the astronaut dietary experience as we move toward longer-duration missions. Tending plants may also serve as a countermeasure for crew psychological stresses associated with spaceflight. However, requirements to support consistent growth of a variety of nutritious crops under spaceflight environmental conditions remain unclear. This study explores the potential to grow crops for consumption on the International Space Station (ISS) using the Veggie vegetable-production system. VEG-04A and B were two flight tests conducted in 2019 with the leafy green crop Mizuna mustard. Mizuna was grown in two Veggie chambers simultaneously, with the chambers set to different red-to-blue light formulations; one Veggie was programmed as “red-rich” and the second as “blue-rich.” Light quality is known to impact plant growth, nutrition, microbiology, and organoleptic characteristics on Earth, and the Veggie flight tests examined how these impacts might differ in microgravity. VEG-04A was a 35-day growth test with a single harvest. VEG-04B, a 58-day test with harvests at four, six, and eight weeks from the same plants, assessed sustained productivity. Challenges with the watering program occurred early during VEG-04A, and several plants failed to survive in both the flight and ground control operations. Thus, prior to VEG-04B, an extra test was conducted to tailor water timing and volumes. This test allowed a fine tuning of methods for VEG-04B, and generally plant survival was better in that experiment. At each harvest, the astronauts froze half of the edible plant tissue to return to Earth and weighed the remaining half using the ISS Mass Measurement Device (MMD). Weighed samples were then cleaned with produce-sanitizing wipes, and consenting crew members participated in organoleptic evaluation of the fresh produce. Organoleptic evaluations were conducted on the Mizuna crops grown in both light treatments, and data from these tests are compared to ground data collected at JSC. The remaining sanitized produce was available for crew consumption as desired. Frozen flight samples were returned for microbial and chemical analyses to assess food safety and nutritional quality. Microbial assessments included culturing and identifying aerobic bacteria, yeasts, and molds, and screening for specific human pathogens. Chemical nutrient analyses included assessing elements, antioxidants, and phenolics in plant tissues. Crew members involved in plant operations completed behavioral health surveys pre-flight, in-flight associated with plant growth and harvest activities, and post-flight. Surveys captured the amount of time spent on different plant-related operations, enjoyment of the different activities, engagement with Veggie, experience interacting with Veggie, and sensory stimulation associated with growing plants in Veggie.
Veggie↗
VEG-04 PICK-AND-EAT CROP PRODUCTION AND HUMAN RESEARCH ON THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
Growing fresh, nutritious, palatable produce for crew consumption during spaceflight may provide health-promoting, bioavailable nutrients and enhance the astronaut dietary experience as we move toward longer-duration missions. Tending plants may also serve as a countermeasure for crew psychological stresses associated with spaceflight. However, requirements to support consistent growth of a variety of nutritious crops under spaceflight environmental conditions remain unclear. This study explores the potential to grow crops for consumption on the International Space Station (ISS) using the Veggie vegetable-production system. VEG-04A and B were two flight tests conducted in 2019 with the leafy green crop Mizuna mustard. Mizuna was grown in two Veggie chambers simultaneously, with the chambers set to different red-to-blue light formulations; one Veggie was programmed as “red-rich” and the second as “blue-rich.” Light quality is known to impact plant growth, nutrition, microbiology, and organoleptic characteristics on Earth, and the Veggie flight tests examined how these impacts might differ in microgravity. VEG-04A was a 35-day growth test with a single harvest. VEG-04B, a 58-day test with harvests at four, six, and eight weeks from the same plants, assessed sustained productivity. Challenges with the watering program occurred early during VEG-04A, and several plants failed to survive in both the flight and ground control operations. Thus, prior to VEG-04B, an extra test was conducted to tailor water timing and volumes. This test allowed a fine tuning of methods for VEG-04B, and generally plant survival was better in that experiment. At each harvest, the astronauts froze half of the edible plant tissue to return to Earth and weighed the remaining half using the ISS Mass Measurement Device (MMD). Weighed samples were then cleaned with produce-sanitizing wipes, and consenting crew members participated in organoleptic evaluation of the fresh produce. Organoleptic evaluations were conducted on the Mizuna crops grown in both light treatments, and data from these tests are compared to ground data collected at JSC. The remaining sanitized produce was available for crew consumption as desired. Frozen flight samples were returned for microbial and chemical analyses to assess food safety and nutritional quality. Microbial assessments included culturing and identifying aerobic bacteria, yeasts, and molds, and screening for specific human pathogens. Chemical nutrient analyses included assessing elements, antioxidants, and phenolics in plant tissues. Crew members involved in plant operations completed behavioral health surveys pre-flight, in-flight associated with plant growth and harvest activities, and post-flight. Surveys captured the amount of time spent on different plant-related operations, enjoyment of the different activities, engagement with Veggie, experience interacting with Veggie, and sensory stimulation associated with growing plants in Veggie. Within each study, plant growth did not differ across light treatment or location (flight versus ground). In general, more biomass was produced in most treatments during the longer study, but growth of this crop declined over time with the repeated harvests. On average, bacterial and fungal counts were significantly lower on ground control samples than flight samples, and microbial counts increased with repeated harvests. Light treatment did not influence any elements in tissues tested; however, the growth duration did impact levels of several elements. Organoleptic scores were generally higher in flight, and ground tasters considered samples more bitter. Amount of interaction and responses to Veggie varied widely by individual. Enjoyable tasks had higher impact than non-enjoyable tasks and interacting with Veggie was generally viewed as positive. These tests on ISS are helping to mitigate the risk of an inadequate food supply for long-duration missions by adding fresh vegetables and key nutrients to the crew diet, and indicating which plant care activities are providing behavioral health benefits for the crew. This research was co-funded by the Human Research Program and Space Biology (MTL#1075) in the ILSRA 2015 NRA call. Videos due Jan. 25th.
Veggie↗
European Workshop Industrical Computer Science Systems approach to design for safety
This paper presents guidelines on designing systems for safety, developed by the Technical Committee 7 on Reliability and Safety of the European Workshop on Industrial Computer Systems. The focus is on complementing the traditional development process by adding the following four steps: (1) overall safety analysis; (2) analysis of the functional specifications; (3) designing for safety; (4) validation of design. Quantitative assessment of safety is possible by means of a modular questionnaire covering various aspects of the major stages of system development.
Zalewski, Janusz↗
Work Practice Simulation of Complex Human-Automation Systems in Safety Critical Situations: The Brahms Generalized berlingen Model
The transition from the current air traffic system to the next generation air traffic system will require the introduction of new automated systems, including transferring some functions from air traffic controllers to on-board automation. This report describes a new design verification and validation (V&V) methodology for assessing aviation safety. The approach involves a detailed computer simulation of work practices that includes people interacting with flight-critical systems. The research is part of an effort to develop new modeling and verification methodologies that can assess the safety of flight-critical systems, system configurations, and operational concepts. The 2002 Ueberlingen mid-air collision was chosen for analysis and modeling because one of the main causes of the accident was one crew's response to a conflict between the instructions of the air traffic controller and the instructions of TCAS, an automated Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System on-board warning system. It thus furnishes an example of the problem of authority versus autonomy. It provides a starting point for exploring authority/autonomy conflict in the larger system of organization, tools, and practices in which the participants' moment-by-moment actions take place. We have developed a general air traffic system model (not a specific simulation of Überlingen events), called the Brahms Generalized Ueberlingen Model (Brahms-GUeM). Brahms is a multi-agent simulation system that models people, tools, facilities/vehicles, and geography to simulate the current air transportation system as a collection of distributed, interactive subsystems (e.g., airports, air-traffic control towers and personnel, aircraft, automated flight systems and air-traffic tools, instruments, crew). Brahms-GUeM can be configured in different ways, called scenarios, such that anomalous events that contributed to the Überlingen accident can be modeled as functioning according to requirements or in an anomalous condition, as occurred during the accident. Brahms-GUeM thus implicitly defines a class of scenarios, which include as an instance what occurred at Überlingen. Brahms-GUeM is a modeling framework enabling "what if" analysis of alternative work system configurations and thus facilitating design of alternative operations concepts. It enables subsequent adaption (reusing simulation components) for modeling and simulating NextGen scenarios. This project demonstrates that BRAHMS provides the capacity to model the complexity of air transportation systems, going beyond idealized and simple flights to include for example the interaction of pilots and ATCOs. The research shows clearly that verification and validation must include the entire work system, on the one hand to check that mechanisms exist to handle failures of communication and alerting subsystems and/or failures of people to notice, comprehend, or communicate problematic (unsafe) situations; but also to understand how people must use their own judgment in relating fallible systems like TCAS to other sources of information and thus to evaluate how the unreliability of automation affects system safety. The simulation shows in particular that distributed agents (people and automated systems) acting without knowledge of each others' actions can create a complex, dynamic system whose interactive behavior is unexpected and is changing too quickly to comprehend and control.
complex systems↗
The National Aviation Operational Monitoring Service (NAOMS): A Documentation of the Development of a Survey Methodology
The National Aviation Operational Monitoring Service (NAOMS) was a research project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program during the years from 2000 to 2005. The purpose of this project was to develop a methodology for gaining reliable information on changes over time in the rates-of-occurrence of safety-related events as a means of assessing the safety of the national airspace. The approach was a scientifically designed survey of the operators of the aviation system concerning their safety-related experiences. This report presents the results of the methodology developed and a demonstration of the NAOMS concept through a survey of nearly 20,000 randomly selected air-carrier pilots. Results give evidence that the NAOMS methodology can provide a statistically sound basis for evaluating trends of incidents that could compromise safety. The approach and results are summarized in the report and supporting documentation and complete analyses of results are presented in 14 appendices.
Connors, Mary M.↗
Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System
Fatal accident rates in commercial passenger aviation are at historic lows yet have plateaued and are not showing evidence of further safety advances. Modern aircraft accidents reflect both historic causal factors and new unexpected "Black Swan" events. The ever-increasing complexity of the aviation system, along with its associated technology and organizational relationships, provides fertile ground for fresh problems. It is important to take a proactive approach to aviation safety by working to identify novel causation mechanisms for future aviation accidents before they happen. Progress has been made in using of historic data to identify the telltale signals preceding aviation accidents and incidents, using the large repositories of discrete and continuous data on aircraft and air traffic control performance and information reported by front-line personnel. Nevertheless, the aviation community is increasingly embracing predictive approaches to aviation safety. The "prospective workshop" early assessment tool described in this paper represents an approach toward this prospective mindset-one that attempts to identify the future vectors of aviation and asks the question: "What haven't we considered in our current safety assessments?" New causation mechanisms threatening aviation safety will arise in the future because new (or revised) systems and procedures will have to be used under future contextual conditions that have not been properly anticipated. Many simulation models exist for demonstrating the safety cases of new operational concepts and technologies. However the results from such models can only be as valid as the accuracy and completeness of assumptions made about the future context in which the new operational concepts and/or technologies will be immersed. Of course that future has not happened yet. What is needed is a reasonably high-confidence description of the future operational context, capturing critical contextual characteristics that modulate both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.
prospection↗
NASA Safety Standard: Guidelines and Assessment Procedures for Limiting Orbital Debris
Collision with orbital debris is a hazard of growing concern as historically accepted practices and procedures have allowed man-made objects to accumulate in orbit. To limit future debris generation, NASA Management Instruction (NMI) 1700.8, 'Policy to Limit Orbital Debris Generation,' was issued in April of 1993. The NMI requires each program to conduct a formal assessment of the potential to generate orbital debris. This document serves as a companion to NMI 1700.08 and provides each NASA program with specific guidelines and assessment methods to assure compliance with the NMI. Each main debris assessment issue (e.g., Post Mission Disposal) is developed in a separate chapter.
Source record↗
Uncertainty Quantification of Expected Time-of-Arrival in UAV Flight Trajectory
One of the foremost requirements for accurate in-flight safety monitoring of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is tracking of their flight trajectory. Existing UAVs leverage autonomous flight functionalities based on trajectory generation algorithms developed in robotic applications such as polynomial or spline curves in order to facilitate kinematic smoothness, minimum vibrations and fuel efficiency. However in practice, the actual path may be subjected to unexpected local weather conditions, unexpected obstacles along the path or abrupt traffic changes in the low-altitude airspace resulting in large errors of the predicted time-of-arrival at way-points. In this study, an approach to quantify and propagate uncertainty in 4D trajectories is proposed. The paper presents a simple error interval propagation method based on the expected cruise speed of the UAV and its associated uncertainty. The uncertainty is then propagated in time to estimate reasonable confidence intervals on the times-of-arrival of the vehicle at each way-point as well as along the entire flight-path. The uncertainty propagation is demonstrated on a state-of-the-art trajectory generation algorithm based on non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) curves. Further, the effect of a stationary wind field is incorporated in the uncertainty propagation approach. The proposed method is implemented on synthetic and real data obtained from flight experiments with a small UAV.
Uncertainty Quantification↗
Assessment of Some IASMS-relevant Data Sources for Aviation Safety
An In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) [1,2] is a set of services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) necessary for monitoring known hazards and emergent risks, assessing safety data for anomalies, precursors, and trends, mitigating hazards that reach safety thresholds, and assuring efficacy of controls in mitigating hazards. An IASMS will continually monitor the NAS to collect data on the status of aircraft, air traffic management systems, weather, and airports. Within the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) System-Wide Safety (SWS) project’s technical challenge called In-time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS) for Commercial Aviation Operations, which we often refer to as Technical Challenge 6 (TC-6), we have performed an assessment of several aviation data sources we have found that are relevant to assessing the safety of the National Airspace System (NAS) in the context of an IASMS. This assessment includes understanding the nature of the data themselves and using some data analytics tools on these data to show how they can be used to identify potential safety issues. We also describe how the data and analytics are part of a system that can allow for other data and analytics to be performed and for the results to be visualized for use by appropriate operators to identify potential safety issues and develop mitigations. This report is a step toward the ultimate goal of TC-6, which is to develop a prototype IASMS system that demonstrates the potential of an IASMS and inspire operators to build analogous systems to make the best possible use of the significant investments that they make in collecting, storing, and managingdata related to their operations.
aviation safety↗