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A Primer on Argument

The purpose of this document is to provide a common understanding of terms, concepts, principles, and uses of argument. It emphasizes the practical over the theoretical and the simple over the complicated.

argument↗

Coupling of Pronghorn and RELAP-7 for a Pebble Bed Reactor

High temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGR) are a candidate for timely Gen-IV reactor technology deployment because of high technology readiness and walk-away safety. Among HTGRs, pebble bed reactors (PBRs) have attractive features such as low excess reactivity and online refueling. Pebble bed reactors pose unique challenges to analysts and reactor designers such as continuous burnup distribution depending on pebble motion and recirculation, radiative heat transfer across a variety of gas-filled gaps, and long design basis transients such as pressurized and depressurized loss of forced circulation. Modeling and simulation is essential for both the PBR’s safety case and design process. In order to verify and validate the new generation codes the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Data bank provide a set of benchmarks data together with solutions calculated by the participants using the state of the art codes of that time. An important milestone to test the new PBR simulation codes is the OECD NEA PBMR-400 benchmark which includes thermal hydraulic and neutron kinetic standalone exercises as well as coupled exercises and transients scenarios. In this work, the reactor multiphysics code MAMMOTH and the thermal hydraulics code Pronghorn, both developed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) within the multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment (MOOSE), have been used to solve Phase 1 exercises 1 and 2 of the PBMR-400 benchmark. The steady state results are in agreement with the other participants’ solutions demonstrating the adequacy of MAMMOTH and Pronghorn for simulating PBRs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events as Part of a Risk-Informed, Performance-Based Approach

To assist the developing advanced reactor industry in future licensing efforts, the U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program Regulatory Development area initiated a project at Argonne National Laboratory to examine the regulatory treatment of external hazards as part of a risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) licensing framework. A RIPB licensing framework for advanced reactors built on establishing an affirmative safety case offers the benefits of increased flexibility regarding key design and licensing decisions based on a detailed assessment and understanding of plant risk. Historically, reactor licensing addressed events of very low frequency primarily through the application of design margin and defense-in-depth philosophy. In contrast, RIPB approaches attempt to evaluate these scenarios at a level of detail commensurate with their risk, which often necessitates an explicit treatment of their frequency and associated consequence. While the detailed analysis of low frequency events provides insights that can help justify alternative treatments to past conservatism, the findings are dependent on the quality and confidence associated with the analyses. The assessment of external hazards presents a unique challenge, as their potential frequency of occurrence, especially of large magnitude events, is inherently uncertain given the long return periods in question. This project aims to identify the benefits and challenges of such approaches for advanced reactor vendors and aid in the development of consistent and appropriate analysis methodologies. The paper summarizes project findings and explores the application of various approaches for different external hazards. In addition, the current work also evaluates the application of the quantitative health objectives as a limit on external event risk, as they are a potential regulatory requirement under the current draft 10 CFR Part 53, which is a new technology-neutral reactor licensing pathway in the U.S.

Grabaskas, David↗

Borehole Disposal: Update on the Science, Technology, and Potentially Suitable Radioactive Wastes - 20170

A recent Special Issue of the Energies Journal on Deep Borehole Disposal of Nuclear Waste has delivered a timely update on the science and technology of borehole disposal and the types of radioactive wastes it could potentially accommodate. The Special Issue papers discuss (i) circumstances under which a national waste management programme might wish to consider deep borehole disposal [1], (ii) a status report of deep borehole disposal options in Germany [2], (iii) the use of deep horizontal drill-holes in sedimentary, metamorphic or igneous rocks for disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste [3], (iv) the analysis of corrosion performance of engineered barrier systems [4], (v) a review of the potential cementing systems suitable for deep borehole disposal [5], (vi) the thermal evolution around heat-generating waste for a wide range of material properties and disposal configurations [6], (vii) a geochemical analysis of deep brines focussed on fluid-rock interactions [7], (viii) post-closure performance assessment calculations for deep borehole disposal of Cs/Sr capsules [8], and (ix) an example safety case for deep borehole disposal of nuclear wastes [9]. This paper provides an overview of the main findings from these publications and highlights some of the technological and scientific challenges that need to be overcome when developing a deep borehole disposal concept. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

New Beginnings: Optimising Waste and End-state at UK Nuclear Sites to Enable Environmental Permit surrender (the GRR) - 20193

The decommissioning of nuclear sites involves the management of large volumes of radioactive waste, other conventional waste, and the clean-up of land and groundwater contamination. In the UK, the disposal of radioactive waste from nuclear sites is regulated by the Environment Agency (England), Natural Resources Wales (Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Scotland). All three environment agencies seek to make sure that the generation and disposal of radioactive waste is optimised: ensuring impacts to people are 'as low as reasonably achievable' (ALARA). With a large proportion of UK nuclear sites embarking on decommissioning, the environment agencies have collaboratively developed new guidance: the 'Management of radioactive waste from the decommissioning of nuclear sites: Guidance on the Requirements for Release from radioactive substances regulation' (referred to as the GRR)[1]. The environment agencies worked in liaison with the Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR), the UK nuclear safety regulator, and the UK government body responsible, the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA). Prior to finalising the guidance, a 12 month trial was completed at three of the NDA's nuclear sites, enabling the environment agencies to test their draft GRR guidance against 'real world scenarios' and the challenge of incorporating its requirements into decommissioning plans. Experience gained during the trial was incorporated into the current version of the GRR, published in July 2018. The GRR represents the 'new beginning' of this paper's title because for the first time, the UK environmental regulators have expressed in detail their requirements for surrender of environmental permits for nuclear sites. The GRR provides a framework for a UK nuclear site to plan, assess and justify its management of radioactive waste and deliver through decommissioning, an optimal, environmentally safe and sustainable end-state. This paper will describe the requirements and technical standards within the GRR, the establishment of defensible clean-up criteria and the production of a Waste Management Plan (WMP), supported by a Site-Wide Environmental Safety Case (SWESC). It will describe the experience gleaned by operators and regulators during the trial and it will highlight current work by regulators to implement the new approach proportionately. Finally, this paper will look forward and outline planned amendments to legislation in the UK affecting nuclear sites that should enable the full benefits of the GRR to be realised in the future. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Long-term Storage of ILW: Building Stores with the Appropriate Environmental Controls - 20294

In the UK, containers for the storage and disposal of intermediate level radioactive waste (ILW) typically use stainless steel due to its excellent mechanical properties and corrosion resistance. The period of interim storage before a disposal facility is available, however, is longer than available engineering experience with stainless steels in relevant environmental conditions. Additionally, after disposal the ability of ILW containers to withstand further periods of exposure to the environment is expected to provide substantial benefits to the operation of a disposal facility and the safety case underpinning its closure. For these reasons, although there have been no instances of failure of stainless steels in indoor storage conditions, a focused R and D programme has been carried out to identify the environmental envelope over which the material does not significantly degrade. In this study we summarise experimental and modelling studies carried out over the last decade to build a solid mechanistic understanding of the corrosion behaviour of stainless steels in indoor atmospheric conditions. We then identify suitable environmental regimes to minimise the risk of degradation processes and explore approaches to monitoring the storage conditions to gain confidence in the long-term performance of the system. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

SCM overview & the EBR-II shutdown heat removal tests validation.

Pronghorn is an engineering-scale, coarse-mesh, thermal-hydraulics tool for supporting reactor-core simulations of advanced nuclear reactors. Most of the current efforts in Pronghorn have been devoted in developing porous finite-volume capabilities and adapting closure correlations for coarse-mesh thermal-hydraulics modeling. However, for liquid-metal reactors (LMRs) with wire-wrapped fuel pin assemblies, a pin-level thermal-hydraulic resolution is required for most safety case studies (pin rupture, channel blockage, etc.). For this purpose, a new Subchannel application is developed in MOOSE, which affords the required flow field resolution, while still preserving an engineering-scale approach. This new solver can be natively coupled to Pronghorn and other MOOSE objects to enable full-core, multi-physics, multi-scale engineering studies. This presentation presents the main features of the SCM code and demonstrates a validation case based on the EBR-II SHRT tests.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Effect of ionizing radiation on PuO2 and surrogate oxide materials under storage conditions

The stockpile of plutonium separated from used nuclear fuel amounts to many 100s of tonnes. The majority of this plutonium is stored as PuO2 powder packaged in multi-can containers. The conditions during the packaging of reprocessed PuO2 for long term storage are closely controlled to limit water uptake as radiolytic decomposition of any adsorbed water will lead to the formation of both a potentially flammable atmosphere containing molecular hydrogen as well as reactive oxygen species which may be incorporated into the oxide phase. Consequently, the safety case for the long-term storage of PuO2 requires a complete understanding of the fundamental physical, chemical and materials degradation processes occurring at the water-oxide interface inside the storage canisters. This study investigates the effect of ionizing radiation on PuO2 and various surrogate oxides under atmospheres potentially encountered in storage canisters.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Implementing an Objectives-Driven, Risk-Informed, and Case-Assured Approach to Safety and Mission Success at NASA

NASA is developing a “Standard for Assurance of Space Flight Safety and Mission Success” that implements an objectives-driven, risk-informed, and case-assured approach to safety and mission success (S&MS) for NASA space flight programs and projects. The standard aligns with the philosophy of risk leadership that has recently been established in NASA policy to assure acceptable levels of flight crew safety and mission success risk. It is consistent with existing NASA risk management requirements and is compatible with NASA program management and systems engineering requirements. The methodology described in the standard is presented in terms of an S&MS assurance framework that is designed to allow substantial flexibility in the specific means by which programs and projects achieve acceptable mission S&MS risk. Such flexibility is necessary to accommodate the increasingly broad range of acquisition strategies employed by NASA, including commercial transportation services, as well as to accommodate the increasingly rapid evolution of space flight-related technologies and practices. A key feature of the S&MS assurance framework is the specification of S&MS success criteria for each life-cycle review (LCR). The S&MS assurance case is structured around these criteria, the satisfaction of which indicates that the program/project is adhering to the S&MS risk posture. This enables the evolving S&MS assurance case to be used as a fundamental program/project submittal at each LCR, where its inherent structure of argument, supported by evidence, directly supports the evaluation of the program/project with respect to the S&MS success criteria, and by extension, the S&MS risk posture. As such, the S&MS assurance case is integral to program/project systems engineering, risk management, and S&MS oversight activities, and provides the principal basis for S&MS risk acceptance by the Decision Authority throughout the program/project life cycle.

Risk Posture↗

Implementing an Objectives-Driven, Risk-Informed, and Case-Assured Approach to Safety and Mission Success at NASA

NASA is developing a “Standard for Assurance of Space Flight Safety and Mission Success” that implements an objectives-driven, risk-informed, and case-assured approach to safety and mission success (S&MS) for NASA space flight programs and projects. The standard aligns with the philosophy of risk leadership that has recently been established in NASA policy to assure acceptable levels of flight crew safety and mission success risk. It is consistent with existing NASA risk management requirements and is compatible with NASA program management and systems engineering requirements. The methodology described in the standard is presented in terms of an S&MS assurance framework that is designed to allow substantial flexibility in the specific means by which programs and projects achieve acceptable mission S&MS risk. Such flexibility is necessary to accommodate the increasingly broad range of acquisition strategies employed by NASA, including commercial transportation services, as well as to accommodate the increasingly rapid evolution of space flight-related technologies and practices. A key feature of the S&MS assurance framework is the specification of S&MS success criteria for each life-cycle review (LCR). The S&MS assurance case is structured around these criteria, the satisfaction of which indicates that the program/project is adhering to the S&MS risk posture. This enables the evolving S&MS assurance case to be used as a fundamental program/project submittal at each LCR, where its inherent structure of argument, supported by evidence, directly supports the evaluation of the program/project with respect to the S&MS success criteria, and by extension, the S&MS risk posture. As such, the S&MS assurance case is integral to program/project systems engineering, risk management, and S&MS oversight activities, and provides the principal basis for S&MS risk acceptance by the Decision Authority throughout the program/project life cycle.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Safety Assurance Framework for Nuclear Digital Instrumentation and Control Software

Software in digital instrumentation and control (D&C) systems poses unique challenges for the safety assurance of nuclear power plants. Through a literature survey of 21 sources, we analyzed various claims, arguments, and evidence used in safety assurance cases across industries. These were organized into a Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) safety assurance case framework to organize and visualize the various arguments for DI&C safety. We developed a classification for the levels of the framework, which can be used in other safety assurance cases to improve clarity.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

A Case Study of Measuring Process Risk for Early Insights into Software Safety

In this case study, we examine software safety risk in three flight hardware systems in NASA's Constellation spaceflight program. We applied our Technical and Process Risk Measurement (TPRM) methodology to the Constellation hazard analysis process to quantify the technical and process risks involving software safety in the early design phase of these projects. We analyzed 154 hazard reports and collected metrics to measure the prevalence of software in hazards and the specificity of descriptions of software causes of hazardous conditions. We found that 49-70% of 154 hazardous conditions could be caused by software or software was involved in the prevention of the hazardous condition. We also found that 12-17% of the 2013 hazard causes involved software, and that 23-29% of all causes had a software control. The application of the TPRM methodology identified process risks in the application of the hazard analysis process itself that may lead to software safety risk.

Layman, Lucas↗

Development of a software safety process and a case study of its use

The goal of this research is to continue the development of a comprehensive approach to software safety and to evaluate the approach with a case study. The case study is a major part of the project, and it involves the analysis of a specific safety-critical system from the medical equipment domain. The particular application being used was selected because of the availability of a suitable candidate system. We consider the results to be generally applicable and in no way particularly limited by the domain. The research is concentrating on issues raised by the specification and verification phases of the software lifecycle since they are central to our previously-developed rigorous definitions of software safety. The theoretical research is based on our framework of definitions for software safety. In the area of specification, the main topics being investigated are the development of techniques for building system fault trees that correctly incorporate software issues and the development of rigorous techniques for the preparation of software safety specifications. The research results are documented. Another area of theoretical investigation is the development of verification methods tailored to the characteristics of safety requirements. Verification of the correct implementation of the safety specification is central to the goal of establishing safe software. The empirical component of this research is focusing on a case study in order to provide detailed characterizations of the issues as they appear in practice, and to provide a testbed for the evaluation of various existing and new theoretical results, tools, and techniques. The Magnetic Stereotaxis System is summarized.

Knight, John C.↗

AdvoCATE - User Guide

The basic vision of AdvoCATE is to automate the creation, manipulation, and management of large-scale assurance cases based on a formal theory of argument structures. Its main purposes are for creating and manipulating argument structures for safety assurance cases using the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN), and as a test bed and proof-of-concept for the formal theory of argument structures. AdvoCATE is available for Windows 7, Macintosh OSX, and Linux. Eventually, AdvoCATE will serve as a dashboard for safety related information and provide an infrastructure for safety decisions and management.

Safety Case↗

The reduction of a ""safety catastrophic'' potential hazard: A case history

A worst case analysis is reported on the safety of time watch movements for triggering explosive packages on the lunar surface in an experiment to investigate physical lunar structural characteristics through induced seismic energy waves. Considered are the combined effects of low pressure, low temperature, lunar gravity, gear train error, and position. Control measures constitute a seal control cavity and design requirements to prevent overbanking in the mainspring torque curve. Thus, the potential hazard is reduced to safety negligible.

Joseph P. Jones↗

DMBZ Polyimides Provide an Alternative to PMR-15 for High-Temperature Applications

PMR-15, a high-temperature polyimide developed in the mid-1970's at the NASA Lewis Research Center, offers the combination of ease of processing, low cost, and good stability and performance at temperatures up to 288 C (500 F). This material is widely regarded as one of the leading high-temperature matrix resins for polymer-matrix-composite aircraft engine components. PMR-15 is widely used in both military and civilian aircraft engines. The current worldwide market for PMR-15 is on the order of 50,000 lb, with a total sales of around $5 to $10 million. However, PMR-15 is made from methylene dianiline (MDA), a known animal mutagen and a suspected human mutagen. Recent concerns about the safety of workers involved in the manufacture and repair of PMR-15 components have led to the implementation of costly protective measures to limit worker exposure and ensure workplace safety. In some cases, because of safety and economic concerns, airlines have eliminated PMR-15 components from engines in their fleets. Current efforts at Lewis are focused on developing suitable replacements for PMR-15 that do not contain mutagenic constituents and have processability, stability, and mechanical properties comparable to that of PMR-15. A recent development from these efforts is a new class of thermosetting polyimides based on 2,2'-dimethylbenzidine (DMBZ). Autoclave processing developed for PMR-15 composites was used to prepare low-void-content T650-35 carbon-fiber-reinforced laminates from DMBZ-15 polyimides. The glass transition temperatures of these laminates were about 50 C higher than those of the T650- 35/PMR-15 composites (400 versus 348 C). In addition, DMBZ-15 polyimide composites aged for 1000 hr in air at 288 C (500 F) had weight losses close to those of comparable PMR-15 laminates (0.9 versus 0.7 percent). The elevated (288 C) and room temperature mechanical properties of T650-35-reinforced DMBZ-15 polyimide and PMR-15 laminates were comparable. Standard Ames tests are being conducted on this diamine to assess its mutagenicity.

Source record↗

Interrelation Between Safety Factors and Reliability

An evaluation was performed to establish relationships between safety factors and reliability relationships. Results obtained show that the use of the safety factor is not contradictory to the employment of the probabilistic methods. In many cases the safety factors can be directly expressed by the required reliability levels. However, there is a major difference that must be emphasized: whereas the safety factors are allocated in an ad hoc manner, the probabilistic approach offers a unified mathematical framework. The establishment of the interrelation between the concepts opens an avenue to specify safety factors based on reliability. In cases where there are several forms of failure, then the allocation of safety factors should he based on having the same reliability associated with each failure mode. This immediately suggests that by the probabilistic methods the existing over-design or under-design can be eliminated. The report includes three parts: Part 1-Random Actual Stress and Deterministic Yield Stress; Part 2-Deterministic Actual Stress and Random Yield Stress; Part 3-Both Actual Stress and Yield Stress Are Random.

Elishakoff, Isaac↗