Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Scenario Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluating the Impact of Data Placement to Spark and SciDB with an Earth Science Use Case

We investigate the impact of data placement for two Big Data technologies, Spark and SciDB, with a use case from Earth Science where data arrays are multidimensional. Simultaneously, this investigation provides an opportunity to evaluate the performance of the technologies involved. Two datastores, HDFS and Cassandra, are used with Spark for our comparison. It is found that Spark with Cassandra performs better than with HDFS, but SciDB performs better yet than Spark with either datastore. The investigation also underscores the value of having data aligned for the most common analysis scenarios in advance on a shared nothing architecture. Otherwise, repartitioning needs to be carried out on the fly, degrading overall performance.

Spark↗
NASA NTRS2017

Precision Projector Laboratory: Detector Characterization with an Astronomical Emulation Testbed

As astronomical observations benefit from improved sensitivity, the effectiveness of scientific programs is becoming limited by systematics that often originate in poorly understood image sensor behavior. Traditional, bottom-up detector characterization methods provide one way to model underlying detector physics, and generate ever more faithful numerical simulations, but this approach is vulnerable to preconceptions and over-simplification. The alternative top-down approach is laboratory emulation, which enables observation, calibration, and analysis scenarios to be tested without relying on a complete understanding of the underlying physics. This complements detector characterization and simulation efforts by testing their validity. We describe a laboratory facility and experimental testbed that supports the emulation of a wide range of mission concepts such as gravitational weak lensing measurements by WFIRST and high precision spectrophotometry of transiting exoplanets by JWST. An Offner relay projects readily customizable "scenes" (e.g. stars, galaxies, spectra) with very low optical aberration over the full area of a typical optical or near infrared image sensor. f/8 and slower focal ratios may be selected, spanning those of most proposed space missions and approximating the point spread function (PSF) size of seeing limited ground based surveys. Diffraction limited PSFs are projected over a wide field of view and wavelength range to deliver highly predictable image patterns down to sub-pixel scales with stable intensity and fine motion control. The testbed enables realistic validation of detector performance on science-like images, which aids mission design and survey strategy, as well as targeted investigations of various detector effects.

Seshadri, Suresh↗
NASA NTRS2021

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.

Bonnie J E Myers↗
NASA NTRS2022

Coevolution of Machine Learning and Process-Based Modelling to Revolutionize Earth and Environmental Sciences: A Perspective

Machine learning (ML) applications in Earth and environmental sciences (EES) have gained incredible momentum in recent years. However, these ML applications have largely evolved in ‘isolation’ from the mechanistic, process-based modelling (PBM) paradigms, which have historically been the cornerstone of scientific discovery and policy support. In this perspective, we assert that the cultural barriers between the ML and PBM communities limit the potential of ML, and even its ‘hybridization’ with PBM, for EES applications. Fundamental, but often ignored, differences between ML and PBM are discussed as well as their strengths and weaknesses in light of three overarching modelling objectives in EES, (1) nowcasting and prediction, (2) scenario analysis, and (3) diagnostic learning. The paper ponders over a ‘coevolutionary’ approach to model building, shifting away from a borrowing to a co-creation culture, to develop a generation of models that leverage the unique strengths of ML such as scalability to big data and high-dimensional mapping, while remaining faithful to process-based knowledge base and principles of model explainability and interpretability, and therefore, falsifiability.

Saman Razavi↗
NASA NTRS2024

Assessing Effects of Climate and Technology Uncertainties in Large Natural Resource Allocation Problems

The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible, investments in their exploration and utilization. These dynamic considerations are poorly represented in disaggregated resource models, as incorporating uncertainty into large-dimensional problems presents a challenging computational task. In this paper, we apply the SCEQ algorithm (Cai and Judd, 2023) to solve a large-scale dynamic stochastic global land resource use problem with stochastic crop yields due to adverse climate impacts and limits on further technological progress. For the same model parameters and bounded shocks, the range of land conversion is considerably smaller for the dynamic stochastic model than for deterministic scenario analysis.

numerical methods↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comparative Assessment of Evolvable Martian ISRU Propellant Production for Future Human Missions

In 2022, NASA released its “Moon to Mars Strategy and Objectives Development” document, containing top-level goals and objectives designed to create a blueprint for sustained human presence and exploration throughout the solar system. One objective in this “blueprint” calls for the demonstration of “…Mars ISRU capabilities to support an initial human Mars exploration campaign.” NASA is looking at both the benefits and liens of this concept, as one of several trade space aspects under consideration, for inclusion in the overall architecture of the human exploration of Mars. This paper summarizes results from a series of Martian ISRU-focused trade studies from 2023 and 2024. These studies cover five different approaches to providing propellants for returning crew and equipment from the surface of Mars, using several different combinations of propellants delivered (from Earth) and produced from Martian feedstock material. For comparison purposes, the same ISRU infrastructure elements were used across all options wherever possible. The equipment mass, power, operational complexity, and time needed to produce some or all of these propellants have been quantified and compared when used in a common mission scenario. Analysis results for each option are discussed. Performance parameters for these options are compared side-by-side and observations made, including the positive and negative aspects of each case. The possibility of evolving from a simpler ISRU case to more complex cases that would potentially lead to more sustainable operations are also discussed. While no single case emerged as “better” in all aspects when compared to the others, there are distinct advantages and disadvantages that did emerge when comparing the results generated from a common set of assumptions for all cases. Consequently, specific mission objectives may determine which of these advantages or disadvantages are important for choosing among the cases that could benefit any particular mission or campaign.

Mars↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comparative Assessment of Evolvable Martian ISRU Propellant Production for Future Human Missions

In 2022, NASA released its “Moon to Mars Strategy and Objectives Development” document, containing top-level goals and objectives designed to create a blueprint for sustained human presence and exploration throughout the solar system. One objective in this “blueprint” calls for the demonstration of “…Mars ISRU capabilities to support an initial human Mars exploration campaign.” NASA is looking at both the benefits and liens of this concept, as one of several trade space aspects under consideration, for inclusion in the overall architecture of the human exploration of Mars. This paper summarizes results from a series of Martian ISRU-focused trade studies from 2023 and 2024. These studies cover five different approaches to providing propellants for returning crew and equipment from the surface of Mars, using several different combinations of propellants delivered (from Earth) and produced from Martian feedstock material. For comparison purposes, the same ISRU infrastructure elements were used across all options wherever possible. The equipment mass, power, operational complexity, and time needed to produce some or all of these propellants have been quantified and compared when used in a common mission scenario. Analysis results for each option are discussed. Performance parameters for these options are compared side-by-side and observations made, including the positive and negative aspects of each case. The possibility of evolving from a simpler ISRU case to more complex cases that would potentially lead to more sustainable operations are also discussed. While no single case emerged as “better” in all aspects when compared to the others, there are distinct advantages and disadvantages that did emerge when comparing the results generated from a common set of assumptions for all cases. Consequently, specific mission objectives may determine which of these advantages or disadvantages are important for choosing among the cases that could benefit any particular mission or campaign.

Propellant↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Insights from NREL’s Electrification Futures and LA100 Studies

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heavy-Duty Hydrogen Fueling Station Corridors

In this short technical report, we explore the range of levelized costs of dispensed hydrogen (H2) from hydrogen refueling (or fueling) stations (HRS) for H2 heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) that are feasible in the 2030 timeframe. We explore different scenarios by varying hydrogen delivery distances, HRS sizes, HRS utilization rates, and economies of scale in the Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM). Thus, we observe how the contribution to the levelized cost of each supply chain component changes.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION,HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Transmission Planning Study - Chapter 5: Stress Analysis for 2035 Scenarios

The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) is presented as a collection of six chapters, each of which is listed next. The NTP Study was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Chapter 5: Stress Analysis for 2035 Scenarios (this chapter) outlines how the future transmission expansions perform under stress tests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2024

Applications of Remote Sensing for Land Use Planning Scenarios with Suitability Analysis

In regions undergoing rapid urbanization, such as West Africa, land use planning (LUP) is vital to accommodate growing population and manage natural resources. Suitability analysis modeling is a widely used tool in LUP to determine the extent to which a land area is suitable for a designated purpose, but there is a gap in the integration of remote sensing time series data into land use decisions. The goal of this study was to incorporate remote sensing time series information with suitability analyses to inform LUP decisions in urban areas. In the study area of Kumasi, Ghana, land cover trends and land surface temperature (LST) from 2000 to 2019 were used to understand climate change trends. Suitability analyses determined the fitness of land areas for predetermined uses. These background processes informed a genetic algorithm to project plausible futures for three land use scenarios. One scenario represented current land use planning practices for addressing population growth, another scenario prioritized minimizing climate change impacts while also accommodating population growth, and the final scenario focused on both of these climate and population goals in addition to high density urban development. Each of these scenarios was successful in achieving population accommodation and respective climate change mitigation goals. The results for these scenarios provide insight into plausible land use distributions in 2050 based on different planning approaches. The genetic algorithm was able to effectively develop results for each scenario through the integration of remotely sensed trends and suitability models, providing a novel approach to land use decision-making.

remote sensing time series↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pathways of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry with implications for the overall transportation and energy sectors: an integrated, multi-sectoral analysis of future scenarios

Bio-jet adoption has emerged as an attractive option to complement and supplement the use of refined fossil liquid fuels in the aviation industry in the US. However, there are significant uncertainties surrounding the costs of bio-jet including but not limited to costs of feedstock, transformation costs and the competition with co-products of bio-jet that may be demanded elsewhere in the transportation or energy sectors. This study models alternative trajectories of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry by 2050 through the use of a global integrated multi sector dynamics model. Three bio-jet production and consumption pathways are presented- soybean oil to jet, corn ethanol to jet (ETJ) and Fisher–Tropsch-based bio-jet, with each pathway explicitly considering the co-production of renewable diesel and renewable gasoline alongside the bio-jet. Without explicit actions or technology changes to offset the technology cost of bio-jet, scenarios where bio-jet displaces refined liquids result in higher aviation fuel prices (ranging from a 25% increase to 120% increase by mid-century) and lower demand (ranging from −14% to −43%). Corn ethanol will play an important role in the US if large scale amounts of bio-jet are to be produced with smaller effects on demand and prices. While scenarios with high levels of bio-jet availability without the availability of ETJ in the US can significantly reduce emissions in the aviation sector, these reductions are achieved more through the reduction in overall aviation fuel demand rather than technology adoption.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The National Transmission Planning Study: Chapter 5: Stress Analysis for 2035 Scenarios

The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The study sought to develop new national grid-scale planning tools and methods that can be used by industry, especially when planning for interregional transmission capacity needs; identify potential transmission solutions that will provide broad-scale benefits to electric customers under a wide range of potential futures; inform planning processes for regional and interregional transmission; and identify interregional and national strategies to maintain grid reliability as the grid transitions, including to a reliance on low- and zero-carbon energy resources. The NTP Study is presented as a collection of six chapters.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
DOE OSTI2024

The National Transmission Planning Study: Chapter 4: AC Power Flow Analysis for 2035 Scenarios

The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The study sought to develop new national grid-scale planning tools and methods that can be used by industry, especially when planning for interregional transmission capacity needs; identify potential transmission solutions that will provide broad-scale benefits to electric customers under a wide range of potential futures; inform planning processes for regional and interregional transmission; and identify interregional and national strategies to maintain grid reliability as the grid transitions, including to a reliance on low- and zero-carbon energy resources. The NTP Study is presented as a collection of six chapters.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
NASA NTRS2004

Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

performance analysis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disc dichotomy signature in the vertical distribution of [Mg/Fe] and the delayed gas infall scenario

Context. Analysis of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment project (APOGEE) data suggests the existence of a clear distinction between two sequences of disc stars in the [α/Fe] versus [Fe/H] abundance ratio space, known as the high- and low-α sequence, respectively. This dichotomy also emerges from an analysis of the vertical distribution of the [α/Fe] abundance ratio. Aims. We aim to test whether the revised two-infall chemical evolution models designed to reproduce the low- and high-α sequences in the [α/Fe] versus [Fe/H] ratios in the solar neighbourhood are also capable of predicting the disc bimodality observed in the vertical distribution of [Mg/Fe] in APOGEE DR16 data. Methods. Along with the chemical composition of the simple stellar populations born at different Galactic times predicted by our reference chemical evolution models in the solar vicinity, we provide their maximum vertical height above the Galactic plane |zmax| computed assuming the relation between the vertical action and stellar age in APOGEE thin-disc stars. Result. The vertical distribution of the [Mg/Fe] abundance ratio predicted by the reference chemical evolution models is in agreement with that observed when combining the APOGEE DR16 data (chemical abundances) with the astroNN catalogue (stellar ages, orbital parameters) for stars younger than 8 Gyr (only low-α sequence stars). Including the high-α disc component, the dichotomy in the vertical [Mg/Fe] abundance distribution is reproduced considering the observational cut in the Galactic height of |z|< 2 kpc. However, our model predicts an overly flat (almost constant) growth of the maximum vertical height |zmax| quantity as a function of [Mg/Fe] for high-α objects in contrast with the median values from APOGEE data. Possible explanations for such a tension are that: (i) the APOGEE sample with |z|< 2 kpc is more likely than ours to be contaminated by halo stars, causing the median values to be kinematically hotter, and (ii) external perturbations – such as minor mergers – that the Milky Way experienced in the past could have heated up the disc, and the heating of the orbits cannot be modeled by only scattering processes. Assuming a disc dissection based on chemistry for APOGEE-DR16 stars (|z|< 2 kpc), the observed |zmax| distributions for high-α and low-α sequences are in good agreement with our model predictions if we consider the errors in the vertical action estimates in the calculation. Moreover, a better agreement between predicted and observed stellar distributions at different Galactic vertical heights is achieved if asteroseismic ages are included as a constraint in the best-fit model calculations. Conclusions. The signature of a delayed gas infall episode, which gives rise to a hiatus in the star formation history of the Galaxy, are imprinted both in the [Mg/Fe] versus [Fe/H] relation and in vertical distribution of [Mg/Fe] abundances in the solar vicinity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hanford Site Composite Analysis Data Package: Exposure Scenarios and Radionuclide Specific Dose Conversion Factors.

This data package summarizes the exposure assumptions, equations, and methods used to calculate radionuclide-specific unit dose factors and the radiological doses for both groundwater and atmospheric pathways as a part of the revised Hanford Site Composite Analysis. An All-Pathways Representative Person exposure scenario is considered to evaluate exposure via both groundwater and atmospheric transport pathways. The radiological dose assessments for both groundwater and atmospheric pathways are included in the performance assessments for various Waste Management Areas at the Hanford Site. This data package calculates exposure route-specific and total unit dose factors for composite-analysis-specific radionuclides of concern based on the exposure assumptions used in the composite analysis and performance assessments. This data package presents the results and comparison of the radionuclide-specific unit dose factors based on the exposure assumptions used in the revised composite analysis and various performance assessments.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗