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At least 127 records · Page 7

The Impact of ENSO on Extratropical Low Frequency Noise in Seasonal Forecasts

This study examines the uncertainty in forecasts of the January-February-March (JFM) mean extratropical circulation, and how that uncertainty is modulated by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis is based on ensembles of hindcasts made with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) forced with sea surface temperatures observed during; the 1983 El Nino and 1989 La Nina events. The AGCM produces pronounced interannual differences in the magnitude of the extratropical seasonal mean noise (intra-ensemble variability). The North Pacific, in particular, shows extensive regions where the 1989 seasonal mean noise kinetic energy (SKE), which is dominated by a "PNA-like" spatial structure, is more than twice that of the 1983 forecasts. The larger SKE in 1989 is associated with a larger than normal barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the mean Pacific jet to the seasonal mean noise. The generation of SKE due to sub-monthly transients also shows substantial interannual differences, though these are much smaller than the differences in the mean flow conversions. An analysis of the Generation of monthly mean noise kinetic energy (NIKE) and its variability suggests that the seasonal mean noise is predominantly a statistical residue of variability resulting from dynamical processes operating on monthly and shorter times scales. A stochastically-forced barotropic model (linearized about the AGCM's 1983 and 1989 base states) is used to further assess the role of the basic state, submonthly transients, and tropical forcing, in modulating the uncertainties in the seasonal AGCM forecasts. When forced globally with spatially-white noise, the linear model generates much larger variance for the 1989 base state, consistent with the AGCM results. The extratropical variability for the 1989 base state is dominanted by a single eigenmode, and is strongly coupled with forcing over tropical western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, again consistent with the AGCM results. Linear calculations that include forcing from the AGCM variance of the tropical forcing and submonthly transients show a small impact on the variability over the Pacific/North American region compared with that of the base state differences.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

Predictability of Seasonal Means in the NSIPP-1 AGCM

The predictability of seasonal means during 1980-99 is examined from 720 seasonal integrations with version 1 of NASA's Seasonal to Interanual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The AGCM is the atmospheric (and land) component of the NSIPP fully-coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. For these runs, the initial atmospheric conditions are taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and sea surface temperatures and sea ice are specified from observations. Results from the northern winter integrations show that the model has a very realistic El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response in both the tropics and extratropics. Early results from the northern summer runs show a robust extratropical ENSO response in the Southern Hemisphere Pacific, as well as, a pronounced zonally-symmetric component to the ENSO response in both hemispheres. Results will be presented at the meeting highlighting the seasonal evolution in predictability and skill of the NSIPP model on both global and regional scales. A further analysis of the zonally-symmetric response will be discussed in terms of its potential impact on the predictability of middle-latitude climate variability on seasonal to interannual time scales.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Seasonal Variation of Martian Polar Caps: 1999 and 2001 MOC Data

The seasonal Martian polar caps wax and wane in response to condensation and sublimation of carbon dioxide resulting from seasonal insolation changes on Mars. Numerous data exist on observations of the recession or sublimation phases in the visible portion of the spectrum for the last two centuries. William Herschel published the first quantitative observations of the seasonal recession of the Martian polar caps in 1784. During the next 180 years, ground based observers used a variety of techniques to observe recessions; Slipher summarized these observations in 1962, on the eve of the first space exploration of Mars. Portions of the seasonal cycles of the surface caps that were observed by Mariners 7 and 9 and by Viking as well as ground based studies from 1971-1988 by the International Planetary Patrol were summarized in a review article following the Fourth International Conference on Mars in 1989. Hubble Space Telescope observed points in the seasonal recessions of the south and north caps during the 1990 s. Differences between different Martian regressions have been reported in the past; but, because many of the relevant data sets are localized in longitude, at least some of these results could be an artifact introduced by the considerable longitudinal asymmetry that observed during recessions.

P B James↗

Towards Onboard Orbital Tracking of Seasonal Polar Volatiles on Mars

Current conditions on Mars support both a residual polar cap, composed mainly of water ice, and a seasonal cap, composed of CO2, which appears and disappears each winter. Kieffer and Titus characterized the recession of the seasonal south polar cap using an arctangent curve fit based on data from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer on Mars Global Surveyor [1]. They also found significant interannual deviations, at the regional scale, in the recession rate [2]. Further observations will enable the refinement of our models of polar cap evolution in both hemispheres. We have developed the Bimodal Image Temperature (BIT) Histogram Analysis method for the automated detection and tracking of the seasonal polar ice caps on Mars. It is specifically tailored for possible use onboard a spacecraft. We have evaluated BIT on uncalibrated data collected by the Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) instrument [3] on the Mars Odyssey spacecraft. In this paper, we focus on the northern seasonal cap, but our approach is directly applicable to the future analysis of the southern seasonal ice cap as well.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗

Seasonal Evolution and Interannual Variability of the Local Solar Energy Absorbed by the Arctic Sea Ice-Ocean System

The melt season of the Arctic sea ice cover is greatly affected by the partitioning of the incident solar radiation between reflection to the atmosphere and absorption in the ice and ocean. This partitioning exhibits a strong seasonal cycle and significant interannual variability. Data in the period 1998, 2000-2004 were analyzed in this study. Observations made during the 1997-1998 SHEBA (Surface HEat Budget of the Arctic Ocean) field experiment showed a strong seasonal dependence of the partitioning, dominated by a five-phase albedo evolution. QuikSCAT scatterometer data from the SHEBA region in 1999-2004 were used to further investigate solar partitioning in summer. The time series of scatterometer data were used to determine the onset of melt and the beginning of freezeup. This information was combined with SSM/I-derived ice concentration, TOVS-based estimates of incident solar irradiance, and SHEBA results to estimate the amount of solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system for these years. The average total solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system from April through September was 900 MJ m(sup -2). There was considerable interannual variability, with a range of 826 to 1044 MJ m(sup -2). The total amount of solar energy absorbed by the ice and ocean was strongly related to the date of melt onset, but only weakly related to the total duration of the melt season or the onset of freezeup. The timing of melt onset is significant because the incident solar energy is large and a change at this time propagates through the entire melt season, affecting the albedo every day throughout melt and freezeup.

Perovich, Donald K.↗

Seasonal Changes in Titan's Surface Temperatures

Cassini's extended mission has provided the opportunity to search for seasonal variations on Titan. In particular, surface temperatures are expected to have shifted significantly in latitude during the completed portion of the mission. Spectra recorded by the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) during the nominal mission (2004-08) and the Equinox mission. (2008-10) have already shown changes in temperature. CIRS has detected a seasonal shift in the latitudinal distribution of surface brightness temperatures by comparing zonal averages from two time segments, one period in late northern winter centered on L(sub s) approximately 335 deg and a second period centered on the equinox (L(sub s) approximately 0 deg.). The earlier period had a meridional distribution similar to that previously reported: 93.5 K at the equator, 91.7 K at 85 S and 899 K at 85 N. The newly measured distribution near equinox shows a cooling in the south and a warming in the north, both by about 0.5 K. We estimate that. the centroid of the distribution moved from approximately 16 S to 7 S between the two periods. This gives a seasonal lag behind insolation of delta L(sub s) approximately 13 deg. The CIRS equinox results are consistent with those of Voyager IRIS, which encountered Titan in November 1980, just following the previous northern equinox (L(sub s) = 10 deg.). When compared with predictions from general circulation models, seasonal variations of surface temperature can help constrain the identification of surface materials. Our measurements most closely match the case of a porous ice regolith treated by Tokano, but with some apparent differences between the northern and southern hemispheres. CIRS will extend its study of seasonal variations in surface temperature on Titan as Cassini continues through northern spring.

Jennings, Donald E.↗

Seismic Rate Changes Associated with Seasonal, Annual, and Decadal Changes in the Cryosphere

Near the Bering Glacier Global Fiducial site in southern Alaska large cryospheric fluctuations occur in a region of upper crustal faulting and folding associated with collision and accretion of the Yakutat terrane. In this study we report constraints on seasonal, annual and decadal cryospheric changes estimated over the last decade from field, aircraft and satellite measurements, and we evaluate the influence of cryospheric changes on the background seismic rate. Multi-year images from the Bering Glacier global fiducial site are available since mid-2003 to constrain changes in extent of the Bering Glacier and to discern feature changes in the glacial surface. Starting around the same time, satellite gravimetric measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACE) commenced. Large spatial-scale mass change calculated from the GRACE 1deg x 1deg mascon solution of Luthcke et al. [2012] indicate a general trend of annual ice mass loss for southern Alaska but with large, variable seasonal mass fluctuations. Since 2007, the station position of a continuous GPS site near Cape Yakataga (Alaska EarthScope PBO site, AB35) has been available as well. In addition to changes in the geodetic position due to tectonic motion, this GPS station shows large seasonal excursions in the detrended vertical and horizontal position components consistent with snow loading in the fall and winter and melt onset/mass decrease in the spring/summer. To better understand the timing of processes responsible for the onset of cryospheric mass loss documented in the GRACE data, we examined changes in the snow cover extent and the onset of melt in the spring. We calculated the surface displacements of the solid Earth and theoretical earthquake failure criteria associated with these annual and seasonal ice and snow changes using layered elastic half-space. Additionally, we compared the seismic rate (M>1.8) from a reference background time period against other time periods with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics to test the significance of seismic rate changes. Our earlier results suggest statistically significant changes in the background seismic rate associated with large seasonal mass changes. INDEX

Sauber-Rosenberg, Jeanne↗

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period

Roberts, J. Brent↗

The Seasonal Cycle of Satellite Chlorophyll Fluorescence Observations and its Relationship to Vegetation Phenology and Ecosystem Atmosphere Carbon Exchange

Mapping of terrestrial chlorophyll uorescence from space has shown potentialfor providing global measurements related to gross primary productivity(GPP). In particular, space-based fluorescence may provide information onthe length of the carbon uptake period that can be of use for global carboncycle modeling. Here, we examine the seasonal cycle of photosynthesis asestimated from satellite fluorescence retrievals at wavelengths surroundingthe 740nm emission feature. These retrievals are from the Global OzoneMonitoring Experiment 2 (GOME-2) flying on the MetOp A satellite. Wecompare the fluorescence seasonal cycle with that of GPP as estimated froma diverse set of North American tower gas exchange measurements. Because the GOME-2 has a large ground footprint (40 x 80km2) as compared with that of the flux towers and requires averaging to reduce random errors, we additionally compare with seasonal cycles of upscaled GPP in the satellite averaging area surrounding the tower locations estimated from the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC) machine learning algorithm. We also examine the seasonality of absorbed photosynthetically-active radiation(APAR) derived with reflectances from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Finally, we examine seasonal cycles of GPP as produced from an ensemble of vegetation models. Several of the data-driven models rely on satellite reflectance-based vegetation parameters to derive estimates of APAR that are used to compute GPP. For forested sites(particularly deciduous broadleaf and mixed forests), the GOME-2 fluorescence captures the spring onset and autumn shutoff of photosynthesis as delineated by the tower-based GPP estimates. In contrast, the reflectance-based indicators and many of the models tend to overestimate the length of the photosynthetically-active period for these and other biomes as has been noted previously in the literature. Satellite fluorescence measurements therefore show potential for improving model GPP estimates.

Joiner, J.↗

An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase transition of the equatorial zonal current from westerly to easterly.

GMAO↗

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗

Detecting Seasonal Ice Dynamics in Satellite Images

Fully understanding how glaciers respond to environmental change will require new methods to help us identify the onset of ice acceleration events and observe how dynamic signals propagate within glaciers. In particular, observations of ice dynamics on seasonal timescales may offer insights into how a glacier interacts with various forcing mechanisms throughout the year. The task of generating continuous ice velocity time series that resolve seasonal variability is made more difficult by a spotty satellite record that contains no optical observations throughout the dark, polar winters. Furthermore, velocities obtained by feature tracking are marked by high noise when image pairs are separated by short time intervals and contain no direct insights into variability that occurs between images separated by long time intervals. In this paper, we describe a method of analyzing optical or SAR-derived feature-tracked velocities to characterize the magnitude and timing of seasonal ice dynamic variability. Our method is agnostic to data gaps and is able to recover climatological average winter velocities regardless of the availability of direct observations during winter. Using characteristic image acquisition times and error distributions from Antarctic image pairs in the ITS_LIVE dataset, we generate synthetic ice velocity time series, then apply our method to recover imposed magnitudes of seasonal variability within ±1.4 m yr−1. We then validate the techniques by comparing our results to GPS data collected on Russell Glacier in Greenland. The methods presented here may be applied to better understand how ice dynamic signals propagate on seasonal timescales, and what mechanisms control the flow of the world’s ice.

Chad A. Greene↗

Seasonal Variations of Titan's Brightness

The absolute brightness of astronomical bodies can be represented by the emitted power, which plays important roles in their radiated energy budgets. The Cassini observations include three seasons of Titan, which provides an unprecedented opportunity to examine the seasonal variations of Titan's emitted power. Our analyses show that Titan's emitted power displays different seasonal behaviors between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere. The global‐average emitted power decreased by 6.8 ± 0.4% during the Cassini period (2004–2017). Such a temporal variation represents the magnitude of the seasonal cycle of Titan's emitted power, which is at least one order of magnitude stronger than the seasonal variation of Earth's emitted power (<0.5%). More importantly, the ~6.8% decrease of the emitted power is much smaller than the ~18.6% decrease of the solar flux from the change of Sun‐Titan distance, implying a significantly dynamical energy budget on Titan.

Ellen C. Creecy↗

Continental and Ecoregion-Specific Drivers of Atmospheric NO2 and NH3 Seasonality Over Africa Revealed by Satellite Observations

Ammonia (NH3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx: nitrogen dioxide (NO2) + nitric oxide (NO)) play important roles in atmospheric chemistry. Throughout most of Africa, emissions of these gases are predominantly from soils and biomass burning. Here we use observations of tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) from 2005 through 2017 and atmospheric NH3 VCDs from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) from 2008 through 2017 to evaluate seasonal variation of NO2 and NH3 VCDs across Africa and in seven African ecoregions. In regions where mean annual precipitation (MAP) is under 500 mm/yr we find that NO2 and NH3 VCDs are positively related to monthly precipitation, and where MAP is between 500 and 1750 mm yr-1 or higher, NO2 VCDs are negatively related to monthly precipitation. In dry ecoregions, temperature and precipitation were important predictors of NH3 and NO2 VCDs, likely related to variation in soil emissions. In mesic ecoregions, monthly NO2 VCDs were strongly related to burned area, suggesting that biomass burning drives seasonality. NH3 VCDs in mesic ecoregions were positively related to both monthly temperature and monthly CO VCDs, suggesting that a mixture of soil and biomass burning emissions influenced NH3 seasonality. In northern mesic ecoregions monthly temperature explained most of the variance in monthly NH3 VCDs, suggesting that soil sources, including animal excreta, determined NH3 seasonality. In southern mesic ecoregions, monthly CO VCDs explained more variation in NH3 VCDs than temperature, suggesting that biomass burning may have greater influence over NH3 seasonality.

Jonathan E. Hickman↗

Seasonal Bias in Global Ocean Color Observations

In this study we identify a seasonal bias in the ocean color satellite derived remote sensing reflectances (Rrs(λ); sr-1) at the ocean color validation site, MOBY (Marine Optical BuoY). The seasonal bias in Rrs(λ) is present to varying degrees in all ocean color satellites examined, including VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite), SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor), and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer). The relative bias in Rrs has spectral dependence. Products derived from Rrs(λ) are affected by the bias to varying degrees, with particulate backscattering varying up to 50% over a year, chlorophyll varying up to 25% over a year, and absorption from phytoplankton or dissolved material varying by up to 15%. The propagation of Rrs(λ) bias into derived products is broadly confirmed on regional and global scales using Argo floats and data from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) instrument aboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder) satellite. The artifactual seasonality in ocean color is prominent in areas of low biomass (i.e., subtropical gyres) and is not easily discerned in areas of high biomass. While we have eliminated several candidates that could cause the biases in Rrs(λ), there are still outstanding questions regarding potential contributions from atmospheric corrections. Specifically, we provide evidence that the aquatic bidirectional reflectance distribution function may in part cause the observed seasonal bias, but this does not preclude an additional effect of the aerosol estimation. Our investigation highlights the contributions that atmospheric correction schemes can make in introducing biases in Rrs (λ) and we recommend more simulations to discern these influence Rrs (λ) biases. Community efforts are needed to find the root cause of the seasonal bias because all past, present, and future data are or will be affected until a solution is implemented.

satellite ocean color↗

Observation of Trace Gases Seasonal Variability in the Marine Boundary Layer over the Atlantic Ocean during the ACTIVATE Field Campaign

High resolution in-situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and water vapor (H2O) were made onboard the NASA HU-25 aircraft during the ACTIVATE (Aerosol Cloud meteorology Interactions oVer the western Atlantic Experiment) campaign during 2020 and 2021 in different seasons (winter through summer) over the mid-latitude western Atlantic Ocean. As most of the flights focused on the marine boundary layer (MBL) during the campaign, these trace gas observations are an excellent data set to examine seasonal variability of trace gas background values in the MBL without the influence of localized point sources. We will describe the variability of these trace gases in the MBL background by filtering out concentrated point sources using back trajectory analysis along with trace gas ratios. Additionally, the ocean is a significant sink of anthropogenic CO2 capturing about one quarter of total anthropogenic carbon. By looking at the MBL CO2 variation as a function of season, we discuss observed changes in CO2 uptake over the ocean. These high accuracy observations of trace gas backgrounds in the MBL along with characterizing seasonal effects on oceanic sequestering of anthropogenic CO2 will improve the understanding of seasonal variations and change in climate and inverse modelling over the ocean.

Yonghoon Choi↗

Diagnosing Seasonal to Multi-decadal Phytoplankton Group Dynamics in a Highly Productive Coastal Ecosystem

The Santa Barbara Channel, CA (SBC) is a biodiverse marine ecosystem fueled largely by phytoplankton productivity, and the composition of the phytoplankton community influences the magnitude and fates of this productivity. Here, we create a 22-year monthly time series of phytoplankton biomarker pigment concentrations in the SBC by combining 12 years of high performance liquid chromatography phytoplankton pigment concentrations with bio-optical models and 10 additional years of bio-optical observations. The bio-optical models skillfully predict biomarker pigment concentrations representative of five distinct phytoplankton groups (PGs; diatoms, dinoflagellates, chlorophytes, prymnesiophytes, and picophytoplankton) and resolve seasonal responses to the annual upwelling-relaxation cycle for all PGs except the dinoflagellates. Our observations indicate that nanophytoplankton groups respond most rapidly to seasonal upwelling, followed by diatoms, and then by picophytoplankton as the water column stratifies in the summer. A Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) solution is used to relate advection of different source waters to the observed PG dynamics. The ROMS simulation results suggest that, on seasonal time scales, pronounced cross-SBC differences in PG seasonality are related to cross-SBC differences in source waters. El Niño Southern Oscillation events drive interannual variability in the upwelling response of most PGs. On decadal time scales, dinoflagellate blooms are associated with the warm phase of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and anomalous advection of Southern California Bight source waters into the SBC. Taken together, our results provide a novel view of phytoplankton community succession in response to seasonal upwelling by considering the dynamics of pico- and nano-phytoplankton and suggest that regional surface ocean advection plays a substantial role in driving phytoplankton composition in the SBC.

Phytoplankton↗