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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of organized convective storms to model grid spacing in current and future climates

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are complexes of thunderstorms that become organized and cover hundreds of kilometres over several hours. MCSs are prolific rain producers in the tropics and mid-latitudes and are the major cause of warm-season flooding. Traditionally, climate models have difficulties in simulating MCSs partly due to the misrepresentation of complex process interactions that operate across a large range of scales. Significant improvements in simulating MCSs have been found in kilometre-scale models that explicitly simulate deep convection. However, these models operate in the grey zone of turbulent motion and have known deficiencies in simulating small-scale processes (e.g. entrainment, vertical mass transport). Here, we perform mid-latitude idealized ensemble MCS simulations under current and future climate conditions in three atmospheric regimes: hydrostatic (12 km horizontal grid spacing; Δx), non-hydrostatic (Δx = 4, 2 and 1 km) and large eddy scale (Δx = 500 m and 250 m). Our results show a dramatic improvement in simulating MCS precipitation, movement, cold pools, and cloud properties when transitioning from 12 km to 4 km Δx. Decreasing Δx beyond 4 km results in modest improvements except for up- and downdraft sizes, average vertical mass fluxes, and cloud top height and temperature, which continue to change. Most important for climate modelling is that Δx = 4 km simulations reliably capture most MCS climate change signals compared to those of the Δx = 250 m runs. Significantly different climate change signals are found in Δx = 12 km runs that overestimate extreme precipitation changes by up to 100%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM: The Regional Down-Scaling Effects

The results obtained with the variable resolution stretched grid (SG) GEOS GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System General Circulation Models) are discussed, with the emphasis on the regional down-scaling effects and their dependence on the stretched grid design and parameters. A variable resolution SG-GCM and SG-DAS using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over an area of interest, is a viable new approach to REGIONAL and subregional CLIMATE studies and applications. The stretched grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interactions. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-GCM is used for simulations of the anomalous U.S. climate events of 1988 drought and 1993 flood, with enhanced regional resolution. The height low level jet, precipitation and other diagnostic patterns are successfully simulated and show the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest the U.S. An imitation of the nested grid approach is performed using the developed SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) that incorporates the SG-GCM. The SG-DAS is run with withholding data over the area of interest. The design immitates the nested grid framework with boundary conditions provided from analyses. No boundary condition buffer is needed for the case due to the global domain of integration used for the SG-GCM and SG-DAS. The experiments based on the newly developed versions of the GEOS SG-GCM and SG-DAS, with finer 0.5 degree (and higher) regional resolution, are briefly discussed. The major aspects of parallelization of the SG-GCM code are outlined. The KEY OBJECTIVES of the study are: 1) obtaining an efficient DOWN-SCALING over the area of interest with fine and very fine resolution; 2) providing CONSISTENT interactions between regional and global scales including the consistent representation of regional ENERGY and WATER BALANCES; 3) providing a high computational efficiency for future SG-GCM and SG-DAS versions using PARALLEL codes.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS2023

An Urban Drainage Scheme for Large-Scale Flood Models

As flood modeling spatial resolutions get finer, physical processes normally neglected, such as urban drainage, must be accounted for. Here, we describe and evaluate an urban drainage scheme for large-scale flood models. The parameterization accounts for urban imperviousness, and water flow over streets and through a prescribed urban drainage network. A parameter sensitivity analysis is performed during three major extreme floods over Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil, at ∼200 m spatial resolution. Results show that, compared to a hypothetical case without urban drainage, representing a drainage network decreases urban flooding during selected extreme events across Rio de Janeiro by 31–53 %. Such a decrease is caused by an underground water storage of up to 2.5 billion m3 across the city during flood peaks. Underground water storage and transport smooth out and delay peak flows by a few hours over major rivers and channels draining the city. Simulations also indicate that the number of residents exposed to flooding drops by 60–80 %, from ∼5 million to 1–2 million, when an urban drainage system is considered during extreme events. Similar proportions are found for social infrastructure (i.e., schools and hospitals) exposed to flooding. Results reveal that racial minority and low-income populations could disproportionally be exposed to extreme floodings across the city. We conclude that representing urban drainage has a substantial impact on flood exposure and should be accounted for in fine resolution modeling. The proposed scheme is particularly useful in poorly monitored cities and where extreme floods are a frequent hazard yet to be tackled.

Urban drainage↗
NASA NTRS2009

Surface Mining and Reclamation Effects on Flood Response of Watersheds in the Central Appalachian Plateau Region

Surface mining of coal and subsequent reclamation represent the dominant land use change in the central Appalachian Plateau (CAP) region of the United States. Hydrologic impacts of surface mining have been studied at the plot scale, but effects at broader scales have not been explored adequately. Broad-scale classification of reclaimed sites is difficult because standing vegetation makes them nearly indistinguishable from alternate land uses. We used a land cover data set that accurately maps surface mines for a 187-km2 watershed within the CAP. These land cover data, as well as plot-level data from within the watershed, are used with HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran) to estimate changes in flood response as a function of increased mining. Results show that the rate at which flood magnitude increases due to increased mining is linear, with greater rates observed for less frequent return intervals. These findings indicate that mine reclamation leaves the landscape in a condition more similar to urban areas rather than does simple deforestation, and call into question the effectiveness of reclamation in terms of returning mined areas to the hydrological state that existed before mining.

Ferrari, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Traction Characteristics of a 30 by 11.5-14.5, Type 8, Aircraft Tire on Dry, Wet and Flooded Surfaces

A limited test program was conducted to extend and supplement the braking and cornering data on a 30 x 11.5-14.5, type VIII, aircraft tire to refine the tire/runway friction model for use in the development of an aircraft ground performance simulation. Tire traction data were obtained on dry, wet and flooded runway surfaces at ground speeds ranging from 5 to 100 knots and at yaw angles extending up to 12 deg. These friction coefficients are presented as a function of slip characteristics, namely, the maximum and skidding drag coefficients and the maximum cornering coefficients are presented as a function of both ground speed and yaw angle to extend existing data on that tire size. Tire braking and cornering capabilities were shown to be affected by vehicle ground speed, wheel yaw attitude and the extent of surface wetness.

Yager, T. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

c-HAND: near real-time coastal flood mapping

The Texas Gulf Coast region contains significant centers of population, infrastructure, and economy and is threatened by intensifying tropical storms. The flooding from these tropical storms often has multiple compounding drivers. This characteristic presents a complex numerical problem where a simulation must consider multiple hydrologic forcings. While several procedures exist for addressing this problem numerically, they tend to be resource-intensive and cannot be conducted in near real-time. We extend GeoFlood, a reduced physics approach for fluvial flood forecasting, to rapidly predict coastal and compound fluvial-coastal inundation. This method is validated against a numerical ocean circulation model (ADCIRC) simulation of Hurricane Ike, a major coastal flooding event that happened on the Texas Gulf Coast in 2008. We show that the inundation map generated by coastal HAND (c-HAND) has reasonable agreement with the ADCIRC simulation while taking about 1.7% of the time currently needed to run ADCIRC on a supercomputer. While our model correctly predicts 99% of ADCIRC-inundated DEM cells, it also overpredicts inundated area by a factor of approximately 27%. We combine c-HAND with the GeoFlood framework for fluvial flood forecasting to create a compound fluvial-coastal inundation mapping workflow that can be run in near real-time. c-HAND's fast wall-clock time and low CPU requirements can support decision making by first response personnel. The method provides timely and convenient access to crucial information, such as the locations of flooded roads and inundated coastal areas.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Storylines for the 1997 New Year’s Flood: The role of watershed antecedent conditions and future warming in shaping discharge in the Truckee River watershed

The 1997 New Year’s flood was among the most devastating floods in the Truckee River watershed located in western Nevada. This event resulted from complex interactions of flood drivers, such as extreme precipitation, wet antecedent watershed conditions, warm temperatures and rapid snowmelt. We leveraged simulated forcings from the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) and a process-based hydrological model to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood for the Truckee River watershed across four climate warming levels ranging from the current temperatures to + 4° C. For each scenario, we conducted ensemble simulations with the same forcing but with 100 different seasonal watershed antecedent conditions, which were randomly sampled from long-term hydrological simulations. The results show that the 1997 New Year’s flood can be reproduced or exceeded consistently only when the antecedent watershed conditions are wet, specifically when streamflows are above the 75th percentile of the climatological value. There is negligible change in ensemble mean peakflows for Truckee River near Reno; however, there are increases of 18% and 14% under the warming levels of + 3° C and + 4° C, respectively. The increases in peakflows under future climate warming are attributed to wetter antecedent watershed conditions and enhanced snowmelt. Furthermore, the largest increases in peakflows occur at small, high-elevation headwater basins along the Sierra Nevada crest. This study highlights that changes in extreme flood events will result from the complex interplay of multiple flood drivers. It also demonstrates the potential of storyline approaches to analyze future realizations of these extreme events under different climate scenarios.

Climate change impact study↗
NASA NTRS1987

A two-dimensional air-to-air combat game - Toward an air-combat advisory system

Air-to-air combat is modeled as a discrete differential game, and by constraining the game to searching for the best guidance laws from the sets of those considered for each opponent, feedback and outcome charts are obtained which can be used to turn one of the automatic opponents into an intelligent opponent against a human pilot. A one-on-one two-dimensional fully automatic, or manned versus automatic, air-to-air combat game has been designed which includes both attack and evasion alternatives for both aircraft. Guidance law selection occurs by flooding the initial-condition space with four simulated fights for each initial condition, depicting the various attack/evasion strategies for the two opponents, and recording the outcomes. For each initial condition, the minimax method from differential games is employed to determine the best choice from the available strategies.

Neuman, Frank↗
DOE OSTI2022

Industry Level Feasibility of LiDAR Data into Fire Modeling Using Fire Risk Investigation in 3D (FRI3D)

Many evaluation, assessment, and modeling tasks at nuclear power plants require spatial information this often requires physical visits to locations within the facility because the 2D or 3D schematics and current models do not contain enough detail or do not capture as-built and real-world conditions. These visits require extensive manual labor for not only the requesting party, but support groups such as security. LIDAR mapping is trying to solve that problem by providing very detailed 3D models for low costs. However, the use of these models can be very limited because either component reference information is missing and too costly to add, or there is no way to extract specific spatial data needed for other tools. This report presents Idaho National Lab's work with Environmental Intellect (Ei) covering two main efforts. First, to reduce the effort of "tagging" data in large 3D models. By using both existing plant database information, and artificial intelligence (AI) to find and read equipment labels. This research explores the ability of to provide a simple way for the user to tag items and verify plant data, capturing both the speed of AI and human verification. The second part of the work is the development of an interface for importing pieces needed for Modeling & Simulation. Analysis work such as that for fire, flood, or physical security all require spatial or 3D models in various levels of detail. This interface will allow for the retrieval of item location or boundaries, enabling the auto generation of models for varying tools. The application program interface (API) of the fire risk investigation in 3D (FRI3D) was used to test feasibility of exporting the LiDAR tagged spatial information. Outcomes from this work provide preliminary data to determine if the tools and methods could provide substantial industry benefit if fully matured.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced flood synchrony and downstream severity in the Delaware River under rising temperatures

River floods threaten life and economic stability, with risks increasing globally, especially in densely populated coastal areas. In mountainous coastal watersheds like the Delaware River Basin, rising temperature is projected to reduce snowpack, reshaping upstream–downstream flood dynamics. However, the impact on flood synchronization between upland tributaries and estuarine mainstems remains poorly understood. Using multidecadal streamflow simulations from a high-resolution hydrological model, we find significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of synchronized floods under future warming scenarios, particularly severe floods (above the 75 th percentile). Under higher warming scenarios, snowpack and rain-on-snow floods in headwater subbasins nearly vanish. Surprisingly, this regime shift amplifies estuarine flooding by enhancing synchronization between historically snow-dominated subbasins and their downstream counterparts. Despite intensified synchronization and flood magnitude, cold-season flood risk declines due to fewer rain-on-snow events. Conversely, summer floods grow larger, more frequent, and synchronized, driving a seasonal reconfiguration of flood risk that should be considered in future mitigation strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Might the May 2015 Flood in the U.S. Southern Great Plains Induced by Clustered MCSs Unfold in the Future?

Abstract The historic 22–26 May 2015 flood event in Texas and Oklahoma was caused by anomalous clustered mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that produced record‐breaking rainfall and $3 billion of damage in the region. A month‐long regional convection‐permitting simulation is conducted to reconstruct multiple clustered MCSs that lead to this flood event. We further use the pseudo global warming approach to examine how a similar event may unfold in a warmer climate and the driving physical factors for the changes. Tracking of MCSs in observations and simulations shows that the historical simulation reproduces the salient characteristics of the observed MCSs. In a warmer climate under a high‐emission (SSP5‐8.5) scenario, the Southern Great Plains is projected to experience a near surface warming of 4–6 K, accompanied by enhanced moisture transport by the strengthened Great Plains low‐level jet. A warmer and moister lower troposphere leads to 36%–59% larger convective available potential energy, supporting wider and more intense convective updrafts and rainfall production. Consistently, MCSs have wider convective areas and stronger rainfall intensities, producing 50% larger rain volumes during the mature stage. Extreme (99.5%) MCS rainfall frequency and amount will increase by threefold. However, MCS stratiform rain area decreases as a result of elevated stratiform cloud bases that lead to stronger sublimation and evaporation of precipitation in response to warming, resulting in reduced weak‐to‐moderate surface precipitation. Results suggest that global warming greatly increases precipitation intensity of clustered MCS events under strong synoptic influence, with much higher potential to produce serious floods without additional climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A review of SWAT applications, performance and future needs for simulation of hydro-climatic extremes

Hydro-climatic extremes, such as droughts and floods, have most likely increased due to climatic change and could lead to severe impacts on socio-economic, structural and environmental sectors. With nearly 4000 publications, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is clearly one of the most extensively used ecohydrological models worldwide. The model has been widely used for projecting the impacts of future hydro-climatic changes, but application for extreme streamflow conditions is still rarely reported. To date, SWAT application reviews have focused on compilations of SWAT studies for specific or relatively new applications such as eco-hydrological modelling, ecosystem services, sub-daily simulations, and pesticide fate and transport simulations. However, no existing SWAT review studies have focused on simulation of hydro-climatic extremes. Furthermore, this research aims to bridge this gap by compiling and reviewing the findings of studies reporting SWAT hydro-climatic extremes including highlighting the performance and future research needs. A total of 111 articles have been identified since 1999; most of these studies were conducted in the United States and China. These articles can be divided into extreme flow assessments, drought studies, flood studies, drought and flood studies, SWAT coupling with other models, and SWAT improvements. Most of the extreme performance assessment studies reported “satisfactory ”performance, with a particular emphasis on peak flow comparisons. Future research needs regarding this topic include: (1) a unified SWAT extreme performance assessment framework; (2) SWAT improvements that result in improved replication of peak and low flows; (3) reliability assessment of global and satellite products for SWAT extreme simulations; (4) bias correction of CMIP6 and regional climate projections; (5) comparison of SWAT + and SWAT for extreme flow simulations in different types of basins; (6) development of an extreme flow module within an overall SWAT modelling system; and (7) integration of artificial intelligence within SWAT modelling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Three-dimensional realizations of flood flow in large-scale rivers using the neural fuzzy-based machine-learning algorithms

Machine learning methods have been extensively used to study the dynamics of complex fluid flows. One such algorithm, known as adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), can generate data-driven predictions for flow fields, but has not been applied to natural geophysical flows in large-scale rivers. Herein, we demonstrate the potential of ANFIS to produce three-dimensional (3D) realizations of the instantaneous flood flow field in several large-scale, virtual meandering rivers. The 3D dynamics of flood flow in large-scale rivers were obtained using large-eddy simulation (LES). The LES results, i.e., the 3D velocity components, were employed to train the learnable coefficients of an ANFIS. Further, the trained ANFIS, along with a few time-steps of LES results (precursor data) were then used to produce 3D realizations of flood flow fields in large-scale rivers with geometries other than the one the ANFIS was trained with. We also used the trained ANFIS to generate 3D realizations of river flow at a discharge other than that the ANFIS was trained with. The flow field results obtained from ANFIS were validated using separate LES runs to assess the accuracy of the 3D instantaneous realizations of the machine learning algorithm. An error analysis was conducted to quantify the discrepancies among the ANFIS and LES results for various flood flow predictions in large-scale rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a large-ensemble of CONUS-wide projected flood frequency and uncertainty estimates across ~2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS. The framework producing this dataset leverages a multi-model, uncertainty-aware modeling framework that allows evaluating shifts in flood frequences at the stream reach level across the CONUS. CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs are used to derive these flood frequency and uncertainty estimates over the period 1980 - 2099. A spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm is applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders to estimate flood frequencies. The dataset also includes at-site based flood estimates that allow for the comparison between local and regional approach-based estimates, assess projected changes, and characterize their uncertainties. For more reliable estimation of rare flood frequencies such as 500 and 1000-year return periods, super-ensemble based estimates are also included in the dataset. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assests" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office (H2O). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), Ghimire et al. (2025), and Hosking and Wallis (1997).

Ghimire, Ganesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242843941)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa

We report the Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this region before they can be used in downscaling or flood and drought impact assessment studies. In this work, we evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March–May and September–November). We used nine extreme precipitation indices (including seven (one) indices of wet (dry) extremes) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The CMIP6 models were evaluated against two gridded observation datasets: Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42. Three model performance metrics (percentage bias, normalized root-mean-square error, and pattern correlation coefficient) were employed to further assess the strengths and weakness of the models. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes compared to individual models when considering all metrics and seasons. Several consistent biases are evident across CMIP6 models, which tend to overestimate the total-wet day precipitation and consecutive wet days, and underestimate very wet days and maximum 5-day precipitation in both seasons. Furthermore, no single model consistently performs best, model performance varies with the season and index under consideration and is generally independent of horizontal resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2000

STS-99 / Endeavour SRTM Science Briefing and Applications from JSC

The primary objective of the STS-99 mission was to complete high resolution mapping of large sections of the Earth's surface using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), a specially modified radar system. This radar system produced unrivaled 3-D images of the Earth's Surface. This videotape shows a science press briefing. The panel members are Michael Kobrick, the SRTM Project Scientist at JPL; Thomas Henning, SRTM Program Manager at the National Imagery and Mapping Agency; Diane Evans, the Director of the Earth Sciences Program at NASA; and Marian Werner, XSAR Project Manager for the DLR, Deutschen Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt, Germany's National Aerospace Research Center. Michael Kobrick explained the mechanics of interferometric measurements of the Earth. He explained and demonstrated with a scale model the deployable mast's use. He also explained the importance of the attitude and orbit determination avionics. A brief animated video showing how four beams would give a 225 km wide swath of the Earth topography was viewed. Thomas Henning discussed some of the usage of the digital terrain elevation data for flood relief planning, cell phone station placement, military planning for command and control centers, and flight simulation. He explained that public access to the most precise data would be limited. Diane Evans described data usage in flood prediction, earthquake fault identification and archeology. Marian Werner described the German and Italian input to the project. The questions from the press concerned the time to process this data, and the reasons for the limited access to the more precise data.

Source record↗