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DOE OSTI2025

Land of Opportunity: Potential for Renewable Energy on Federal Lands

Renewable energy (RE) in the United States has historically been deployed primarily on private lands, but the growing interest in RE development, generally across the country and specifically on federal lands, raises questions about the potential for RE on public lands. This study seeks to estimate RE technical potential on federal lands and project the amount of RE to be developed on federal lands under decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States. The study applied a combination of high-resolution geospatial analysis and power sector modeling and relied on multiple partner federal agencies and land administrators from the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Department of Energy. In our reference siting access case, we estimate 44 million acres of federal land across the contiguous United States is potentially suitable for UPV development, which corresponds to a capacity technical potential of 5,750 gigawatts (GW) (Figure ES-1). Federal land area available for wind development is similar to UPV but wind’s generating capacity technical potential is lower (875 GW). The technical potential is estimated for two geothermal technologies, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), both of which have a smaller amount of federal land available for development (12 and 27 million acres, respectively). However, in terms of capacity, the technical potential for EGS (975 GW) is approximately equal to wind’s technical potential and there is an estimated 130 GW of hydrothermal potential. We also developed cases with more-limited land available for UPV and wind (for federal and non-federal lands) resulting in 96% reduction of wind capacity potential and 70% reduction for UPV. In a case with additional constraints applied to non-federal lands only (Limited Private), the overall (federal and non-federal) technical potential declines but the share of that technical potential on federal lands is higher than in the other siting cases. The technical potential is the maximum amount that could be developed, but only a small fraction would be developed or needed in the future. Across seven scenarios that achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, we estimate 26 GW to 270 GW of RE capacity could be deployed on federal lands by 2035. The three central scenarios have 51–84 GW of RE deployed by 2035 and requiring about 500,000 to 1,000,000 acres of total land area. Direct land consumption is less than total land use required, thus enabling co-use opportunities. The large technical potential estimates and the increasing deployment projections from the collection of scenarios show the opportunities for RE development on federal lands. Capturing these opportunities-while minimizing conflicts with other land uses, federal department or agency missions, and public interest, and simultaneously maximizing the economic, grid, and social value of the projects-would require collaborative planning among federal land administrators, grid planners, project developers, the public, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2001

Variable Iron K(alpha) Lines in Seyfert 1 Galaxies

We find that variability of the iron K alpha line is common in Seyfert 1 galaxies. Using data from the ASCA archive for objects that have been observed more than once during the mission, we study the time-averaged spectra from individual observations, thereby probing variability on timescales that range from days to years. Since the statistics of the data do not warrant searches for line variability in terms of a complex physical model, we use a simple Gaussian to model the gross shape of the line and then use the centroid energy, intensity, and equivalent width as robust indicators of changes in the line profile. We find that approximately 70% of Seyfert 1 galaxies (10 out of 15) show variability in at least one of these parameters: the centroid energy, intensity, and equivalent width vary in six, four, and eight sources, respectively. Because of the low signal-to-noise ratio, limited sampling, and time averaging, we consider these results to represent lower limits to the rate of incidence of variability. In most cases changes in the line do not appear to track changes in the continuum. In particular, we find no evidence for variability of the line intensity in NGC 4151, suggesting an origin in a region larger than the putative accretion disk, where most of the iron line has been thought to originate. Mrk 279 is investigated on short timescales. The time-averaged effective line energy (as measured by the Gaussian center energy, which is weighted by emission in the entire line profile) is 6.5 keV in the galaxy rest frame. As the continuum flux increases by 20% in a few hours, the Fe K line responds within approximately 10,000 seconds with the effective line energy increasing by 0.22 keV (approximately 10,500 kilometers per second). We also examine the ROSAT PSPC spectrum of Mrk 279 but find inconsistencies with ASCA. Problems with the ASCA and ROSAT calibration that affect simultaneous spectral fits at low energies are discussed in an appendix.

Weaver, K. A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

High-Resolution N-Band Observations of the Nova RS Ophiuchi with the Keck Interferometer Nuller

We report new observations of the nova RS Ophiuchi (RS Oph) using the Keck Interferometer Nulling Instrument, approximately 3.8 days following the most recent outburst that occurred on 2006 February 12. The Keck Interferometer Nuller (KIN) operates in K-band from 8 to 12.5 pm in a nulling mode, which means that the central broad-band interference fringe is a dark fringe - with an angular width of 25 mas at mid band - rather than the bright fringe used ill a conventional optical interferometer. In this mode the stellar light itself is suppressed by the destructive fringe, effectively enhancing the contrast of the circumstellar material located near the star. By subsequently shifting the neighboring bright fringe onto the center of the source brightness distribution and integrating, a second spatial regime dominated by light from the central portion of the source is almost simultaneously sampled. The nulling technique is the sparse aperture equivalent of the conventional corongraphic technique used in filled aperture telescopes. By fitting the unique KIK inner and outer spatial regime data, we have obtained an angular size of the mid-infrared continuum of 6.2, 4.0. or 5.4 mas for a disk profile, gaussian profile (fwhm), and shell profile respectively. The data show evidence of enhanced neutral atomic hydrogen emission located in the inner spatial regime relative to the outer regime. There is also evidence of a 9.7 micron silicate feature seen outside of this region. Importantly, we see spectral lines excited by the nova flash in the outer region before the blast wave reaches these regions. These lines are from neutral, weakly excited atoms which support the following interpretation. We discuss the present results in terms of a unifying model of the system that includes an increase in density in the plane of the orbit of the two stars created by a spiral shock wave caused by the motion of the stars through the cool wind of the red giant star. These data show the power and potential of the nulling technique which has been developed for the detection of Earth-like planets around nearby stars for the Terrestrial Planet Finder Mission and Darwin missions.

Barry, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Development of a Tunable Electromechanical Acoustic Liner for Engine Nacelles

This report describes the development of a tunable electromechanical Helmholtz resonator (EMHR) for engine nacelles using smart materials technology. This effort addresses both near-term and long-term goals for tunable electromechanical acoustic liner technology for the Quiet Aircraft Technology (QAT) Program. Analytical models, i.e. lumped element model (LEM) and transfer matrix (TM) representation of the EMHR, have been developed to predict the acoustic behavior of the EMHR. The models have been implemented in a MATLAB program and used to compare with measurement results. Moreover, the prediction performance of models is further improved with the aid of parameter extraction of the piezoelectric backplate. The EMHR has been experimentally investigated using standard two-microphone method (TMM). The measurement results validated both the LEM and TM models of the EMHR. Good agreement between predicted and measured impedance is obtained. Short- and open circuit loads define the limits of the tuning range using resistive and capacitive loads. There is approximately a 9% tuning limit under these conditions for the non-optimized resonator configuration studied. Inductive shunt loads result in a 3 degree-of-freedom DOF) system and an enhanced tuning range of over 20% that is not restricted by the short- and open-circuit limits. Damping coefficient ' measurements for piezoelectric backplates in a vacuum chamber are also performed and indicate that the damping is dominated by the structural damping losses, such as compliant boundaries, and other intrinsic loss mechanisms. Based on models of the EMHR, a Pareto optimization design of the EMHR has been performed for the EMHR with non-inductive loads. The EMHR with non-inductive loads is a 2DOF system with two resonant fiequencies. The tuning ranges of the two resonant frequencies of the EMHR with non-inductive loads cannot be optimized simultaneously; a trade-off (i.e., a Pareto solution) must be reached. The Pareto solution provides the information for a designer that shows how design trade-offs can be used to satisfy specific design requirements. The optimization design of the EMHR with inductive loads aims at optimal tuning of these three resonant fiequencies. The results indicate that it is possible to keep the acoustic reactance of the resonator close to a constant over a given frequency range. An effort to mimic the second layer of the NASA 2DOF liner using a piezoelectric composite diaphragm has been made. The optimal acoustic reactance of the second layer of the NASA 2DOF liner is achieved using a thin PVDF composite diaphragm, but matching the acoustic resistance requires further investigation. Acoustic energy harvesting is achieved by connecting the EMHR to an energy reclamation circuit that converts the ac voltage signal across the piezoceramic to a conditioned dc signal. Energy harvesting experiment yields 16 m W continuous power for an incident SPL of 153 dB. Such a level is sufficient to power a variety of low power electronic devices. Finally, technology transfer has been achieved by converting the original NASA ZKTL FORTRAN code to a MATLAB code while incorporating the models of the EMHR. Initial studies indicate that the EMHR is a promising technology that may enable lowpower, light weight, tunable engine nacelle liners. This technology, however, is very immature, and additional developments are required. Recommendations for future work include testing of sample EMHR liner designs in NASA Langley s normal incidence dual-waveguide and the grazing-incidence flow facility to evaluating both the impedance characteristics as well as the energy reclamation abilities. Additional design work is required for more complex tuning circuits with greater performance. Poor electromechanical coupling limited the electromechanical tuning capabilities of the proof of concept EMHR. Different materials than those studies and perhaps novel composite material systems may dramatically improvehe electromechanical coupling. Such improvements are essential to improved mimicking of existing double layer liners.

Liu, Fei↗
NASA NTRS2013

Dynamics and Control of a Disordered System in Space

In this paper, we present some ideas regarding the modeling, dynamics and control aspects of granular spacecraft. Granular spacecraft are complex multibody systems composed of a spatially disordered distribution of a large number of elements, for instance a cloud of N grains in orbit, with N greater than 10(exp 3). These grains can be large (Cubesat-size) or small (mm-size), and can be active, i.e., a fully equipped vehicle capable sensing their own position and attitude, and enabled with propulsion means, or entirely passive. The ultimate objective would be to study the behavior of the single grains and of large ensembles of grains in orbit and to identify ways to guide and control the shape of a cloud composed of these grains so that it can perform a useful function in space, for instance, as an element of an optical imaging system for astrophysical applications. This concept, in which the aperture does not need to be continuous and monolithic, would increase the aperture size several times compared to large NASA observatories such as ATLAST, allowing for a true Terrestrial Planet Imager that would be able to resolve exo-planet details and do meaningful spectroscopy on distant world. In the paper, we address the modeling and autonomous operation of a distributed assembly (the cloud) of large numbers of highly miniaturized space-borne elements (the grains). A multi-scale, multi-physics model is proposed of the dynamics of the cloud in orbit, as well as a control law for cloud shape maintenance, and preliminary simulation studies yield an estimate of the computational effort, indicating a scale factor of approximately N(exp 1.4) as a function of the number of grains. A granular spacecraft can be defined as a collection of a large number of space-borne elements (in the 1000s) designed and controlled such that a desirable collective behavior emerges, either from the interactions among neighboring grains, and/or between the grains and the environment. In this paper, each grain is considered to be a highly miniaturized spacecraft which has limited size and mass, hence it has limited actuation, limited propulsive capability, limited power, limited sensing, limited communication, limited computational resources, limited range of motion, limited lifetime, and may be expendable. The modeling and dynamics of clouds of vehicles is more challenging than with conventional vehicles because we are faced with a probabilistic vehicle composed of a large number of physically disconnected vehicles. First, different scales of motion occur simultaneously in a cloud: translations and rotations of the cloud as a whole (macro-dynamics), relative rotation and translation of one cloud member with respect to another (meso-dynamics), and individual cloud member dynamics (micro-dynamics). Second, the control design needs to be tolerant of the system complexity, of the system architecture (centralized vs. decentralized large scale system control) as well as robust to un-modeled dynamics and noise sources. Figure 1, top left, shows the kinematic parameters of a 1000 element cloud in orbit. The motion of the system is described with respect to a local vertical-local horizontal (LV-LH) orbiting reference frame (x,y,z)=F(sub ORF) of origin O(sub ORF) which rotates with mean motion omega and orbital semi-major axis R(sub 0). The orbital geometry at the initial time is defined in terms of its six orbital elements, and the orbital dynamics equation for point O(sub ORF) is propagated forward in time under the influence of the gravitational field of the primary and other external perturbations, described below. The origin of this frame coincides with the initial position of the center of mass of the system, and the coordinate axes are z along the local vertical, x toward the flight direction, and y in the orbit normal direction. The assumptions we used to model the dynamics are as follows: 1) The inertial frame is fixed at Earth's center. 2) The orbiting Frame ORF follows Keplerian orbit. 3) the cloud system dynamics is referred to ORF. 4) the attitude of each grain uses the principal body frame as body fixed frame. 5) the atmosphere is assumed to be rigidly rotating with the Earth. Regarding the grains forming the cloud: 1) each grain is modeled as a rigid body; 2) a simple attitude estimator provides attitude estimates, 3) a simple guidance logic commands the position and attitude of each grain, 4) a simple local feedback controller based on PD control of local states is used to stabilize the attitude of the vehicle. Regarding the cloud: 1) the cloud as a whole is modeled as an equivalent rigid body in orbit, and 2) an associated graph establishes agent connectivity and enables coupling between modes of motion at the micro and macro scales; 3) a simple guidance and estimation logic is modeled to estimate and command the attitude of this equivalent rigid body; 4) a cloud shape maintenance controller is based on the dynamics of a stable virtual truss in the orbiting frame. Regarding the environmental perturbations acting on the cloud: 1) a non-spherical gravity field including JO (Earth's spherical field) zonal component, J2 (Earth's oblateness) and J3 zonal components is implemented; 2) atmospheric drag is modeled with an exponential model; 3) solar pressure is modeled assuming the Sun is inertially fixed; and 4) the Earth's magnetic field is model using an equivalent dipole model. The equations of motion are written in a referential system with respect to the origin of the orbiting frame and the state is propagated forward in time using an incremental predictor-corrector scheme. A representative cloud with varying number of grains is simulated to identify the limitations in computation time as the number of grains grows. We derive a control law to track a desired surface in the ORF (equivalently to maintain a reference cloud shape) by defining an error from a desired surface shape, and designing a control law that is exponentially stable and reduces the tracking error to zero. Figure 1 (top right) shows a comparison of various requirements for simulation of single spacecraft vs. granular spacecraft, indicating the high degree of complexity that needs to be taken into consideration. The ORF components of control force required by one of the grains is, for this particular case, in the micro-Newton range. However, no attempt has been made yet to reconfigure (or re-orient) the cloud configuration internally, for which forces in the milli-Newton level are expected, depending on the time required to do the reconfiguration. Figure 1, bottom, shows the computation time as a function of the number of grains, indicating an order N(exp 1.43) scaling on a 8 Gb, 1067 MHz RAM MacOSX computer with a 3.06 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor. With this metric, the same simulation for a system of N=1000 grains would take 5.4 hours, and 146 hours (i.e., 6 days) for a system with N=10,000 grains. Therefore, efficient ways to simulate this complex system, where not only the time scales of natural system dynamics, but also the sampling times of the Guidance, Navigation, and Control are included, remain to be explored. Additional details on the cloud modeling, dynamics, and control will be described in the paper.

simulation↗
NASA NTRS2011

C/NOFS Satellite Electric Field and Plasma Density Observations of Plasma Instabilities Below the Equatorial F-Peak -- Evidence for Approximately 500 km-Scale Spread-F "Precursor" Waves Driven by Zonal Shear Flow and km-Scale, Narrow-Banded Irregularities

As solar activity has increased, the ionosphere F-peak has been elevated on numerous occasions above the C/NOFS satellite perigee of 400km. In particular, during the month of April, 2011, the satellite consistently journeyed below the F-peak whenever the orbit was in the region of the South Atlantic anomaly after sunset. During these passes, data from the electric field and plasma density probes on the satellite have revealed two types of instabilities which had not previously been observed in the C/NOFS data set (to our knowledge): The first is evidence for 400-500km-scale bottomside "undulations" that appear in the density and electric field data. In one case, these large scale waves are associated with a strong shear in the zonal E x B flow, as evidenced by variations in the meridional (outward) electric fields observed above and below the F-peak. These undulations are devoid of smaller scale structures in the early evening, yet appear at later local times along the same orbit associated with fully-developed spread-F with smaller scale structures. This suggests that they may be precursor waves for spread-F, driven by a collisional shear instability, following ideas advanced previously by researchers using data from the Jicamarca radar. A second new result (for C/NOFS) is the appearance of km-scale irregularities that are a common feature in the electric field and plasma density data that also appear when the satellite is below the F -peak at night. The vector electric field instrument on C/NOFS clearly shows that the electric field component of these waves is strongest in the zonal direction. These waves are strongly correlated with simultaneous observations of plasma density oscillations and appear both with, and without, evidence of larger-scale spread-F depletions. These km-scale, quasi-coherent waves strongly resemble the bottomside, sinusoidal irregularities reported in the Atmosphere Explorer satellite data set by Valladares et al. [JGR, 88, 8025, 1983]. We interpret these new observations in terms of fundamental plasma instabilities associated with the unstable, nighttime equatorial ionosphere.

Pfaff, R.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Vicarious Calibration of the Long Near Infrared Band: Cross-Sensor Differences in Sensitivity

Numerous assumptions and approximations are employed when translating satellite-derived radiance to surface remote sensing reflectance (RRS) for ocean color applications. Among these is the vicarious calibration coefficient (g) of the “long” near infrared band (NIRL) used for atmospheric correction. For this band, the prelaunch calibration has always been deemed sufficient [thus g(NIRL) = 1.00] as long as other bands are vicariously calibrated. Recent research, however, suggests that Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Aqua RRS time series is quite sensitive to g(NIRL) (and associated vicarious gains in other bands). In this work, we assessed the sensitivity of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (VIIRS/SNPP) RRS to NIRL calibration and compared our results to previous MODIS/Aqua and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor onboard OrbView2 (SeaWiFS)/OrbView2 analysis. In doing so, we note that g(NIRL) sensitivities of mission-averaged RRS time series are lower for VIIRS and Sea-WiFS, relative to MODIS. At the scale of monthly climatologies (MCs), however, all sensors show prominent g(NIRL) sensitivity with that of SeaWiFS being the most substantial. These findings informed simulation analyses, whereby we identified signal-tonoise ratio (SNR) and radiant path geometry, as well as their interaction, as having notable impacts on g(NIRL) sensitivity. As such, g(NIRL) sensitivity is a necessary consideration for reflectance uncertainty budgets, especially for sensors with higher NIR SNR or particular prevailing radiant path geometries. Given the geometry components embedded within g(NIRL) sensitivity, such studies should be coupled with cross-sensor intercalibrations [e.g., using simultaneous same view (SSV) measurements] toward minimizing NIRL errors between satellite instruments, but such efforts will not completely remediate remaining cross-sensor biases in RRS. Index Terms—Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Aqua, ocean color, ocean gyres, Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor onboard OrbView2 (SeaWiFS), system vicarious calibration (SVC), Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (VIIRS/SNPP).

MODIS↗
NASA NTRS2001

Stratospheric Age Spectra and Mean Ages from In Situ Observations of Carbon Dioxide

In situ observations of CO2 obtained from 1992 through 2000 using the NASA ER-2 aircraft and high-altitude balloons show that seasonal and interannual variations in CO2 mixing ratios propagate from the troposphere into the lower stratosphere via the tropical tropopause, along with the long-term trend due to fossil fuel combustion. These signals spread laterally and vertically, providing detailed quantitative information about the transport history of sampled air. We have used these data to derive age spectra and mean ages that can be compared with results from models of the stratospheric circulation. For an air parcel at a point in the stratosphere, the age spectrum is defined as the probability distribution function for transit times from the tropical tropopause for each fluid element comprising the parcel. The mean age is the average transit time, corresponding to the first moment of the age spectrum. Age spectra have been derived for altitudes below approximately 20 km for the tropics and for northern midlatitudes where there is sufficient data and where the amplitudes of the seasonal and interannual oscillations in CO2 mixing ratios are large enough to be detected. Tropical age spectra are narrow, with seasonal variation indicating faster ascent during northern winter, consistent with a circulation driven by breaking of extratropical waves. The midlatitude CO2 data are consistent with bimodal age spectra, which could result from a subtropical "barrier" to horizontal exchange over a substantial altitude region. Seasonally resolved mean ages are available with nearly pole-to-pole coverage below 20 km and in the tropics and at middle and high northern latitudes up to the maximum altitude reached by the balloons (approximately 30 km). At ER-2 altitudes, steep meridional gradients in mean age are observed in the subtropics. Between 20 and 30 km, midlatitude air is approximately 2 years older than tropical air at the same altitude. The oldest air sampled was in the Arctic polar vortex with a mean age of .5 plus or minus 0.5 years. This value is much younger than mean ages inferred from simultaneous and previous observations of SF6 in the Arctic vortex, providing evidence for a mesospheric sink for SF6. The mean age in the midlatitude middle stratosphere (approximately 25-32 km) is nearly constant with respect to altitude at 5 plus or minus 0.5 years. Comparison with earlier balloon observations of CO2 dating back to the 1970s shows that the mean age of air in this region has been relatively invariant over the last 25 years.

Andrews, Arlyn E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Improved Underwater Excitation-Emission Matrix Fluorometer

A compact, high-resolution, two-dimensional excitation-emission matrix fluorometer (EEMF) has been designed and built specifically for use in identifying and measuring the concentrations of organic compounds, including polluting hydrocarbons, in natural underwater settings. Heretofore, most EEMFs have been designed and built for installation in laboratories, where they are used to analyze the contents of samples collected in the field and brought to the laboratories. Because the present EEMF can be operated in the field, it is better suited to measurement of spatially and temporally varying concentrations of substances of interest. In excitation-emission matrix (EEM) fluorometry, fluorescence is excited by irradiating a sample at one or more wavelengths, and the fluorescent emission from the sample is measured at multiple wavelengths. When excitation is provided at only one wavelength, the technique is termed one-dimensional (1D) EEM fluorometry because the resulting matrix of fluorescence emission data (the EEM) contains only one row or column. When excitation is provided at multiple wavelengths, the technique is termed two-dimensional (2D) EEM fluorometry because the resulting EEM contains multiple rows and columns. EEM fluorometry - especially the 2D variety - is well established as a means of simultaneously detecting numerous dissolved and particulate compounds in water. Each compound or pool of compounds has a unique spectral fluorescence signature, and each EEM is rich in information content, in that it can contain multiple fluorescence signatures. By use of deconvolution and/or other mixture-analyses techniques, it is often possible to isolate the spectral signature of compounds of interest, even when their fluorescence spectra overlap. What distinguishes the present 2D EEMF over prior laboratory-type 2D EEMFs are several improvements in packaging (including a sealed housing) and other aspects of design that render it suitable for use in natural underwater settings. In addition, the design of the present 2D EEMF incorporates improvements over the one prior commercial underwater 2D EEMF, developed in 1994 by the same company that developed the present one. Notable advanced features of the present EEMF include the following: 1) High sensitivity and spectral resolution are achieved by use of an off-the-shelf grating spectrometer equipped with a sensor in the form of a commercial astronomical- grade 256 532-pixel charge-coupled-device (CCD) array. 2) All of the power supply, timing, control, and readout circuits for the illumination source and the CCD, ancillary environmental monitoring sensors, and circuitry for controlling a shutter or filter motor are custom-designed and mounted compactly on three circuit boards below a fourth circuit board that holds the CCD (see figure). 3) The compactness of the grating spectrometer, CCD, and circuit assembly makes it possible to fit the entire instrument into a compact package that is intended to be maneuverable underwater by one person. 4) In mass production, the cost of the complete instrument would be relatively low - estimated at approximately $30,000 at 2005 prices.

Moore, Casey↗
NASA NTRS1992

An experimental methodology for a fuzzy set preference model

A flexible fuzzy set preference model first requires approximate methodologies for implementation. Fuzzy sets must be defined for each individual consumer using computer software, requiring a minimum of time and expertise on the part of the consumer. The amount of information needed in defining sets must also be established. The model itself must adapt fully to the subject's choice of attributes (vague or precise), attribute levels, and importance weights. The resulting individual-level model should be fully adapted to each consumer. The methodologies needed to develop this model will be equally useful in a new generation of intelligent systems which interact with ordinary consumers, controlling electronic devices through fuzzy expert systems or making recommendations based on a variety of inputs. The power of personal computers and their acceptance by consumers has yet to be fully utilized to create interactive knowledge systems that fully adapt their function to the user. Understanding individual consumer preferences is critical to the design of new products and the estimation of demand (market share) for existing products, which in turn is an input to management systems concerned with production and distribution. The question of what to make, for whom to make it and how much to make requires an understanding of the customer's preferences and the trade-offs that exist between alternatives. Conjoint analysis is a widely used methodology which de-composes an overall preference for an object into a combination of preferences for its constituent parts (attributes such as taste and price), which are combined using an appropriate combination function. Preferences are often expressed using linguistic terms which cannot be represented in conjoint models. Current models are also not implemented an individual level, making it difficult to reach meaningful conclusions about the cause of an individual's behavior from an aggregate model. The combination of complex aggregate models and vague linguistic preferences has greatly limited the usefulness and predictive validity of existing preference models. A fuzzy set preference model that uses linguistic variables and a fully interactive implementation should be able to simultaneously address these issues and substantially improve the accuracy of demand estimates. The parallel implementation of crisp and fuzzy conjoint models using identical data not only validates the fuzzy set model but also provides an opportunity to assess the impact of fuzzy set definitions and individual attribute choices implemented in the interactive methodology developed in this research. The generalized experimental tools needed for conjoint models can also be applied to many other types of intelligent systems.

Turksen, I. B.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Spectral Index and Quasi-Periodic Oscillation Frequency Correlation in Black Hole Sources: Observational Evidence of Two Phases and Phase Transition in Black Holes

Recent studies have shown that strong correlations are observed between the low frequencies (1-10 Hz) of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) and the spectral power law index of several black hole (BH) candidate sources, in low (hard) states, steep power law (soft) states, and transitions between these states. The observations indicate that the X-ray spectra of such state (phases) show the presence of a power-law component and are sometimes related to simultaneous radio emission, indicating the probable presence of a jet. Strong QPOs (>20% rms) are present in the power density spectrum in the spectral range where the power-law component is dominant (i.e., 60%90%). This evidence contradicts the dominant, long-standing interpretation of QPOs as a signature of the thermal accretion disk. We present the data from the literature and our own data to illustrate the dominance of power-law index-QPO frequency correlations. We provide a model that identifies and explains the origin of the QPOs and how they are imprinted on the properties of the power-law flux component. We argue for the existence of a bounded compact coronal region that is a natural consequence of the adjustment of the Keplerian disk flow to the innermost sub-Keplerian boundary conditions near the central object and that ultimately leads to the formation of a transition layer (TL) between the adjustment radius and the innermost boundary. The model predicts two phases or states dictated by the photon upscattering produced in the TL: (1) a hard state, in which the TL is optically thin and very hot (kT approximately greater than 50 keV), producing photon upscattering via thermal Comptonization (the photon spectrum index Gamma approximates 1.7 for this state is dictated by gravitational energy release and Compton cooling in an optically thin shock near the adjustment radius), and (2) a soft state that is optically thick and relatively cold (kT approximately less than 5 keV the index for this state, Gamma approximates 2.8, is determined by soft-photon upscattering and photon trapping in a converging flow into the BH). In the TL model for the corona, the QPO frequency V(sub high) is related to the gravitational (close to Keplerian) frequency V(sub K) at the outer (adjustment) radius and v(sub low) is related to the TL's normal mode (magnetoacoustic) oscillation frequency v(sub MA) . The observed correlations between index and low and high QPO frequencies are readily explained in terms of this model. We also suggest a new method for evaluation of the BH mass using the index-frequency correlation.

Titarchuk, Lev↗
NASA NTRS2009

Modeling and Simulation of Variable Mass, Flexible Structures

The advent of the new Ares I launch vehicle has highlighted the need for advanced dynamic analysis tools for variable mass, flexible structures. This system is composed of interconnected flexible stages or components undergoing rapid mass depletion through the consumption of solid or liquid propellant. In addition to large rigid body configuration changes, the system simultaneously experiences elastic deformations. In most applications, the elastic deformations are compatible with linear strain-displacement relationships and are typically modeled using the assumed modes technique. The deformation of the system is approximated through the linear combination of the products of spatial shape functions and generalized time coordinates. Spatial shape functions are traditionally composed of normal mode shapes of the system or even constraint modes and static deformations derived from finite element models of the system. Equations of motion for systems undergoing coupled large rigid body motion and elastic deformation have previously been derived through a number of techniques [1]. However, in these derivations, the mode shapes or spatial shape functions of the system components were considered constant. But with the Ares I vehicle, the structural characteristics of the system are changing with the mass of the system. Previous approaches to solving this problem involve periodic updates to the spatial shape functions or interpolation between shape functions based on system mass or elapsed mission time. These solutions often introduce misleading or even unstable numerical transients into the system. Plus, interpolation on a shape function is not intuitive. This paper presents an approach in which the shape functions are held constant and operate on the changing mass and stiffness matrices of the vehicle components. Each vehicle stage or component finite element model is broken into dry structure and propellant models. A library of propellant models is used to describe the distribution of mass in the fuel tank or Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) case for various propellant levels. Based on the mass consumed by the liquid engine or SRB, the appropriate propellant model is coupled with the dry structure model for the stage. Then using vehicle configuration data, the integrated vehicle model is assembled and operated on by the constant system shape functions. The system mode shapes and frequencies can then be computed from the resulting generalized mass and stiffness matrices for that mass configuration. The rigid body mass properties of the vehicle are derived from the integrated vehicle model. The coupling terms between the vehicle rigid body motion and elastic deformation are also updated from the constant system shape functions and the integrated vehicle model. This approach was first used to analyze variable mass spinning beams and then prototyped into a generic dynamics simulation engine. The resulting code was tested against Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV-)class problems worked in the TREETOPS simulation package and by Wilson [2]. The Ares I System Integration Laboratory (SIL) is currently being developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to test vehicle avionics hardware and software in a hardware-in-the-loop (HWIL) environment and certify that the integrated system is prepared for flight. The Ares I SIL utilizes the Ares Real-Time Environment for Modeling, Integration, and Simulation (ARTEMIS) tool to simulate the launch vehicle and stimulate avionics hardware. Due to the presence of vehicle control system filters and the thrust oscillation suppression system, which are tuned to the structural characteristics of the vehicle, ARTEMIS must incorporate accurate structural models of the Ares I launch vehicle. The ARTEMIS core dynamics simulation models the highly coupled nature of the vehicle flexible body dynamics, propellant slosh, and vehicle nozzle inertia effects combined with mass and flexible body properties that vary significant with time during the flight. All forces that act on the vehicle during flight must be simulated, including deflected engine thrust force, spatially distributed aerodynamic forces, gravity, and reaction control jet thrust forces. These forces are used to excite an integrated flexible vehicle, slosh, and nozzle dynamics model for the vehicle stack that simulates large rigid body translations and rotations along with small elastic deformations. Highly effective matrix math operations on a distributed, threaded high-performance simulation node allow ARTEMIS to retain up to 30 modes of flex for real-time simulation. Stage elements that separate from the stack during flight are propagated as independent rigid six degrees of freedom (6DOF) bodies. This paper will present the formulation of the resulting equations of motion, solutions to example problems, and describe the resulting dynamics simulation engine within ARTEMIS.

Tobbe, Patrick A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Biomaterials Out of Thin Air: In Situ, On-Demand Printing of Advanced Biocomposites: A New Materials Design and Production Technique Using 3D-Printed Arrays of Bioengineered Cells

We have completed the proof of concept described in our Phase I proposal, a two-material array of nonstructural proteins. We created an implementation of each step in our technology concept and demonstrated its critical functionality. The biological chassis and printing hardware we created as part of this work can be re-used for future work by inserting a material coding region upstream of the fluorescent tag. Overall, we showed that our technology concept is sound. The mission benefit analyses, as described in our Phase I proposal, are complete and contained in this report. These calculations show that our technology can save hundreds of kilograms of upmass for a potential planetary human habit construction mission: the mass per habitat module can be reduced by approximately one third if the biomaterials are manufactured on Earth and included in the mission upmass, and the full 240 kg per module can be saved if the materials are derived entirely from in situ resources. Mass savings between these two extremes is expected for an actual mission, depending on the level of in situ resource extraction technology. We have shown that continued advancement of this technology concept for use in a space mission environment is justified. Our survey of future development pathways proved extremely informative in light of the lessons learned from our proof of concept work and mission scenario analyses. For example, we were able for the first time to distinguish between the levels of functionality provided by production of structural proteins, other polymers such as polysaccharides, and true organic-inorganic composites such as bone and mineralized shell. This new information represents a significant advance in formulating specific applications, and key enabling technologies, for our proposed concept. We surveyed potential collaborations with other projects and synergies with enabling technologies that are developing. We have received requests for collaboration from other institutions, including labs at Stanford University and Drexel University. We have also received visits from industry, including Organovo, a tissue engineering company, and Autodesk, a major 3D and materials design software company. Finally, we have been in touch with the team behind the 2013 NIAC Phase ll 'Super Ball Bot-Structures for Planetary Landing and Exploration' and are planning to develop our biomaterial printing technology with the goal of enabling tensegrity-based rovers such as theirs to use lighter, more robust materials. A smooth transition from TRL 2 to TRL 3 assumes that the implementations of the technology concept which demonstrate critical functionality are also pathways for future development; while this is the case for most hardware or software projects, the multidisciplinary nature of our project, particularly the biological aspect of it, means that this is not always true. For example, as part of this work we showed that although there are large number of known genetic parts that correspond to non-structural materials, this is not true for sequences for structural organic proteins, let alone biominerals. These realizations allowed us to further subdivide our concept into more detailed development areas, some of which are clearly established at TRL 3, others of which were newly identified sub-technologies moved from TRL 1 to TRL 2. Similarly, although a single feasibility /benefit analysis is sufficient for advancement from TRL 2 to TRL 3, not all potential benefits to a technology concept as broad in scope as ours are apparent at TRL 2. Both our future pathways survey and our proof of concept work highlighted that the true mass savings potential of our technology concept cannot be quantified without modification of existing materials modelling tools to take into account the possibility of positional materials properties customization. Therefore, we have simultaneously both advanced one potential set of applications of our technology concept from TRL 2 to TRL 3 and also identified a previously unknown set of applications and advanced it from TRL 1 to TRL 2. Overall, we have moved the original formulation of our concept forward from TRL 2 to TRL 3, and the expanded formulation of it presented in this document has been advanced from a combination of TRL 1 and early 1RL 2 to an overall late TRL 2. We have also identified the key areas necessary for both short-term and long-term advancement, and made recommendations for specific future work in the most promising directions. With future work on a 1-2 year timeframe to continue advancement to overall TRL 3, we will be well positioned to begin work on a specific space mission technology insertion path.

Biology↗