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A New Bond Albedo for Performing Orbital Debris Brightness to Size Transformations

We have developed a technique for estimating the intrinsic size distribution of orbital debris objects via optical measurements alone. The process is predicated on the empirically observed power-law size distribution of debris (as indicated by radar RCS measurements) and the log-normal probability distribution of optical albedos as ascertained from phase (Lambertian) and range-corrected telescopic brightness measurements. Since the observed distribution of optical brightness is the product integral of the size distribution of the parent [debris] population with the albedo probability distribution, it is a straightforward matter to transform a given distribution of optical brightness back to a size distribution by the appropriate choice of a single albedo value. This is true because the integration of a powerlaw with a log-normal distribution (Fredholm Integral of the First Kind) yields a Gaussian-blurred power-law distribution with identical power-law exponent. Application of a single albedo to this distribution recovers a simple power-law [in size] which is linearly offset from the original distribution by a constant whose value depends on the choice of the albedo. Significantly, there exists a unique Bond albedo which, when applied to an observed brightness distribution, yields zero offset and therefore recovers the original size distribution. For physically realistic powerlaws of negative slope, the proper choice of albedo recovers the parent size distribution by compensating for the observational bias caused by the large number of small objects that appear anomalously large (bright) - and thereby skew the small population upward by rising above the detection threshold - and the lower number of large objects that appear anomalously small (dim). Based on this comprehensive analysis, a value of 0.13 should be applied to all orbital debris albedo-based brightness-to-size transformations regardless of data source. Its prima fascia genesis, derived and constructed from the current RCS to size conversion methodology (SiBAM Size-Based Estimation Model) and optical data reduction standards, assures consistency in application with the prior canonical value of 0.1. Herein we present the empirical and mathematical arguments for this approach and by example apply it to a comprehensive set of photometric data acquired via NASA's Liquid Mirror Telescopes during the 2000-2001 observing season.

Mulrooney, Mark K.↗

Observations of Precipitation Size and Fall Speed Characteristics within Coexisting Rain and Wet Snow

Ground-based measurements of particle size and fall speed distributions using a Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometer are compa red among samples obtained in mixed precipitation (rain and wet snow) and rain in the Oregon Cascade Mountains and in dry snow in the Rock y Mountains of Colorado. Coexisting rain and snow particles are distinguished using a classification method based on their size and fall sp eed properties. The bimodal distribution of the particles' joint fall speed-size characteristics at air temperatures from 0.5 to 0 C suggests that wet-snow particles quickly make a transition to rain once mel ting has progressed sufficiently. As air temperatures increase to 1.5 C, the reduction in the number of very large aggregates with a diame ter > 10 mm coincides with the appearance of rain particles larger than 6 mm. In this setting. very large raindrops appear to be the result of aggregates melting with minimal breakup rather than formation by c oalescence. In contrast to dry snow and rain, the fall speed for wet snow has a much weaker correlation between increasing size and increasing fall speed. Wet snow has a larger standard deviation of fall spee d (120%-230% relative to dry snow) for a given particle size. The ave rage fall speed for observed wet-snow particles with a diameter great er than or equal to 2.4 mm is 2 m/s with a standard deviation of 0.8 m/s. The large standard deviation is likely related to the coexistence of particles of similar physical size with different percentages of melting. These results suggest that different particle sizes are not required for aggregation since wet-snow particles of the same size can have different fall speeds. Given the large standard deviation of fa ll speeds in wet snow, the collision efficiency for wet snow is likely larger than that of dry snow. For particle sizes between 1 and 10 mm in diameter within mixed precipitation, rain constituted I % of the particles by volume within the isothermal layer at 0 C and 4% of the particles by volume for the region just below the isothermal layer where air temperatures rise from 0" to 0.5"C. As air temperatures increa sed above 0.5 C, the relative proportions of rain versus snow particl es shift dramatically and raindrops become dominant. The value of 0.5 C for the sharp transition in volume fraction from snow to rain is sl ightly lower than the range from 1 .l to 1.7 C often used in hydrolog ical models.

Yuter, Sandra E.↗

Improvement of interfacial adhesion of unidirectional textile grade carbon fiber (TCF) with unsized, epoxy and urethane sizing reinforced in thermoset urethane composites

This work considers a unique wide tow (450k filaments) form of low-cost carbon fiber intended for non-aerospace applications. TCF is currently produced in epoxy and urethane sizing, and there is a need to understand its resulting composite properties. In this work, the interfacial adhesion of sized TCF reinforced in thermoset urethane (TSU) composites are examined through the surface, thermal and mechanical characterization techniques. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) results showed an increase in surface roughness for urethane (276%) and epoxy sized (78%) versus unsized TCF. XPS results showed 531% increase in O in epoxy sized TCF and 250% N content in urethane sized TCF compared to unsized TCF. The surface energy of epoxy and urethane sized TCF is enhanced by 78% and 96%, respectively compared to unsized TCF. The storage modulus showed improvement for urethane (23%) and epoxy (21%) sized than unsized TCF-TSU composites. The flexural, interlaminar shear strength (ILSS), and impact properties of urethane sized TCF increase by 24%, 50%, and 273%, respectively, than unsized TCF. The results demonstrate that the surface and thermal properties correlate with the mechanical properties of TCF-TSU composites and sizing enhances the wettability of the composites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Turbulent Concentration of mm-Size Particles in the Protoplanetary Nebula: Scale-Dependent Cascades

The initial accretion of primitive bodies (here, asteroids in particular) from freely-floating nebula particles remains problematic. Traditional growth-by-sticking models encounter a formidable "meter-size barrier" (or even a mm-to-cm-size barrier) in turbulent nebulae, making the preconditions for so-called "streaming instabilities" difficult to achieve even for so-called "lucky" particles. Even if growth by sticking could somehow breach the meter size barrier, turbulent nebulae present further obstacles through the 1-10km size range. On the other hand, nonturbulent nebulae form large asteroids too quickly to explain long spreads in formation times, or the dearth of melted asteroids. Theoretical understanding of nebula turbulence is itself in flux; recent models of MRI (magnetically-driven) turbulence favor low-or- no-turbulence environments, but purely hydrodynamic turbulence is making a comeback, with two recently discovered mechanisms generating robust turbulence which do not rely on magnetic fields at all. An important clue regarding planetesimal formation is an apparent 100km diameter peak in the pre-depletion, pre-erosion mass distribution of asteroids; scenarios leading directly from independent nebula particulates to large objects of this size, which avoid the problematic m-km size range, could be called "leapfrog" scenarios. The leapfrog scenario we have studied in detail involves formation of dense clumps of aerodynamically selected, typically mm-size particles in turbulence, which can under certain conditions shrink inexorably on 100-1000 orbit timescales and form 10-100km diameter sandpile planetesimals. There is evidence that at least the ordinary chondrite parent bodies were initially composed entirely of a homogeneous mix of such particles. Thus, while they are arcane, turbulent concentration models acting directly on chondrule size particles are worthy of deeper study. The typical sizes of planetesimals and the rate of their formation can be estimated using a statistical model with properties inferred from large numerical simulations of turbulence. Nebula turbulence is described by its Reynolds number Re = (L/eta)(exp 4/3), where L = H alpha(exp 1/2) is the largest eddy scale, H is the nebula gas vertical scale height, alpha the turbulent viscosity parameter, and eta is the Kolmogorov or smallest scale in turbulence (typically about 1km), with eddy turnover time t(sub eta). In the nebula, Re is far larger than any numerical simulation can handle, so some physical arguments are needed to extend the results of numerical simulations to nebula conditions. In this paper, we report new physics to be incorporated into our statistical models.

mm-size particles↗

Decoupling indentation size and strain rate effects during nanoindentation: A case study in tungsten

Materials indented at small scales may simultaneously exhibit indentation size and strain rate effects which complicate the identification of the mechanisms that control deformation and strength. Here, in this work, we explore the possibility that indentation size and rate effects in some materials can be decoupled in a simple way. Nanoindentation tests with various load-time histories were carried out to measure the hardness of a tungsten single crystal over a wide range of indentation depths (~500–3600 nm) and indentation strain rates (~5 ×10 –5 –2 ×10 –1 s –1 ). Under these conditions, this material exhibits significant indentation size and rate effects, but the size effect is, to a good approximation, independent of strain rate. It is shown that this behavior can be understood by the Nix-Gao model for the indentation size effect modified to include the effects of a strain rate dependent friction stress. As a consequence, the size and rate dependencies of the hardness can be expressed as the sum of two independent terms: H($\dot{ε}$ i , h c )=H f ($\dot{ε}$ i ) + (H 0 – H f ) $\sqrt{1+ \frac{h^*}{h_c}}$, where H($\dot{ε}$ i , h c ) is the hardness at given indentation strain rate ($\dot{ε}$ i ) and contact depth (h c ), H f ($\dot{ε}$ i ) is the hardness contributed by the rate dependent friction stress, and (H 0 – H f ) and h* are size and rate independent constants that follow from the Nix-Gao analysis. This formula, together with an expression for the rate dependence of H f , was successfully applied to decouple the indentation size and rate effects observed in tungsten. In addition, the physics underlying the rate independence of indentation size effect is discussed, which provides guidance for application of the proposed approach to other materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Constraining and Characterizing the Size of Atmospheric Rivers: A Perspective Independent From the Detection Algorithm

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (AR) are large and narrow filaments of poleward horizontal water vapor transport. Because of its direct relationship with horizontal vapor transport, extreme precipitation, and overall AR impacts over land, the AR size is an important characteristic that needs to be better understood. Current AR detection and tracking algorithms have resulted in large uncertainty in estimating AR sizes, with areas varying over several orders of magnitude among different detection methods. We develop and implement five independent size estimation methods to characterize the size of ARs that make landfall over the west coast of North America in the 1980–2017 period and reduce the range of size estimation from ARTMIP. ARs that originate in the Northwest Pacific (WP) (100°−180°E) have larger sizes and are more zonally oriented than those from the Northeast Pacific (EP) (180°−240°E). ARs become smaller through their life cycle, mainly due to reductions in their width. They also become more meridionally oriented toward the end of their life cycle. Overall, the size estimation methods proposed in this study provide a range of AR areas (between 7 × 10 11 and 10 13 m 2 ), that is, several orders of magnitude narrower than current methods estimation. This methodology can provide statistical constraints in size and geometry for the AR detection and tracking algorithms, and an objective insight for future studies about AR size changes under different climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dataset of tensile properties for sub-sized specimens of nuclear structural materials

Mechanical testing with sub-sized specimens plays an important role in the nuclear industry, facilitating tests in confined experimental spaces with lower irradiation levels and accelerating the qualification of new materials. The reduced size of specimens results in different material behavior at the microscale, mesoscale, and macroscale, in comparison to standard-sized specimens, which is referred to as the “specimen size effect.” Although analytical models have been proposed to correlate the properties of sub-sized specimens to standard-sized specimens, these models lack broad applicability across different materials and testing conditions. The objective of this study is to create the first large public dataset of tensile properties for sub-sized specimens used in nuclear structural materials. We performed an extensive literature review of relevant publications and extracted over 1,000 tensile testing records comprising 55 columns including material type and composition, manufacturing information, irradiation conditions, specimen dimensions, and tensile properties. The dataset can serve as a valuable resource to investigate the specimen size effect and develop computational methods to correlate the tensile properties of sub-sized specimens.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The frequency and sizes of inner bars and nuclear rings in barred galaxies and their dependence on galaxy properties

ABSTRACT Using a volume- and mass-limited (D < 30 Mpc, $\log \, (M_{\star }/M_{\odot })\ge 9.75$) sample of 155 barred S0–Sd galaxies, I determine the fraction with secondary structures within their bars. Some 20 ± 3 per cent have a separate inner bar, making them double-barred; an identical fraction have nuclear rings, with $11^{+3}_{-2}$ per cent hosting both. The inner-bar frequency is a strong, monotonic function of stellar mass: only $4^{+3}_{-2}$ per cent of barred galaxies with $\log \, (M_{\star }/M_{\odot })= 9.75$–10.25 are double-barred, while 47 ± 8 per cent of those with $\log \, (M_{\star }/M_{\odot })\gt 10.5$ are. The nuclear-ring frequency is a strong function of absolute bar size: only $1^{+2}_{-1}$ per cent of bars with semimajor axes <2 kpc have nuclear rings, while $39^{+6}_{-5}$ per cent of larger bars do. Both inner bars and nuclear rings are absent in very late-type (Scd–Sd) galaxies. Inner bar size correlates with galaxy stellar mass, but is clearly offset to smaller sizes from the main population of bars. This makes it possible to define ‘nuclear bars’ in a consistent fashion, based on stellar mass. There are eight single-barred galaxies where the bars are nuclear-bar-sized; some of these may be systems where an outer bar failed to form, or previously double-barred galaxies where the outer bar has dissolved. Inner bar size is even more tightly correlated with host bar size, which is likely the primary driver. In contrast, nuclear ring size is only weakly correlated with galaxy mass or bar size, with more scatter in size than is true of inner bars.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Particle size influences decay rates of environmental DNA in aquatic systems

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis is a powerful tool for remote detection of target organisms. However, obtaining quantitative and longitudinal information from eDNA data is challenging, requiring a deep understanding of eDNA ecology. Notably, if the various size components of eDNA decay at different rates, and we can separate them within a sample, their changing proportions could be used to obtain longitudinal dynamics information on targets. To test this possibility, we conducted an aquatic mesocosm experiment in which we separated fish‐derived eDNA components using sequential filtration to evaluate the decay rate and changing proportion of various eDNA particle sizes over time. We then fit four alternative mathematical decay models to the data, building towards a predictive framework to interpret eDNA data from various particle sizes. We found that medium‐sized particles (1–10 μm) decayed more slowly than other size classes (i.e., <1 and > 10 μm), and thus made up an increasing proportion of eDNA particles over time. We also observed distinct eDNA particle size distribution (PSD) between our Common carp and Rainbow trout samples, suggesting that target‐specific assays are required to determine starting eDNA PSDs. Additionally, we found evidence that different sizes of eDNA particles do not decay independently, with particle size conversion replenishing smaller particles over time. Nonetheless, a parsimonious mathematical model where particle sizes decay independently best explained the data. Given these results, we suggest a framework to discern target distance and abundance with eDNA data by applying sequential filtration, which theoretically has both metabarcoding and single‐target applications.

Brandão‐Dias, Pedro F. P.↗

Forest responses to simulated elevated CO 2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO 2 ) is predicted to increase growth rates of forest trees. The extent to which increased growth translates to changes in biomass is dependent on the turnover time of the carbon, and thus tree mortality rates. Size- or age-dependent mortality combined with increased growth rates could result in either decreased carbon turnover from a speeding up of tree life cycles, or increased biomass from trees reaching larger sizes, respectively. However, most vegetation models currently lack any representation of size- or age-dependent mortality and the effect of eCO 2 on changes in biomass and carbon turnover times is thus a major source of uncertainty in predictions of future vegetation dynamics. Using a reduced-complexity form of the vegetation demographic model the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator to simulate an idealised tropical forest, we find increases in biomass despite reductions in carbon turnover time in both size- and age-dependent mortality scenarios in response to a hypothetical eCO 2 -driven 25% increase in woody net primary productivity (wNPP). Carbon turnover times decreased by 9.6% in size-dependent mortality scenarios due to a speeding up of tree life cycles, but also by 2.0% when mortality was age-dependent, as larger crowns led to increased light competition. Increases in aboveground biomass (AGB) were much larger when mortality was age-dependent (24.3%) compared with size-dependent (13.4%) as trees reached larger sizes before death. In simulations with a constant background mortality rate, carbon turnover time decreased by 2.1% and AGB increased by 24.0%, however, absolute values of AGB and carbon turnover were higher than in either size- or age-dependent mortality scenario. The extent to which AGB increases and carbon turnover decreases will thus depend on the mechanisms of large tree mortality: if increased size itself results in elevated mortality rates, then this could reduce by about half the increase in AGB relative to the increase in wNPP.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of H I in Regulating the Size Growth of Local Galaxies

We study the role of atomic hydrogen (H I ) in regulating the size growth of local galaxies. The size of a galaxy, $D$ $r$,25 , is characterized by the diameter at which the r-band surface brightness reaches ${\mu }_{{\rm{r}}}=25.0\,\mathrm{mag}\,{\mathrm{arcsec}}^{-2}$. We find that the positions of galaxies in the size ($D$ $r$,25 )-stellar-mass ($M$*) plane strongly depend on their H I -to-stellar-mass ratio ($M$ H I /$M$*). In the H I -rich regime, galaxies that are richer in H I tend to have larger sizes. Such a trend is not seen in the H I –poor regime, suggesting that size growth is barely affected by the H I content when it has decreased to a sufficiently low level. An investigation of the relations between size, $M$ H I /$M$*, and star formation rate (SFR) suggests that size is more intrinsically linked with $M$ H I /$M$*, rather than SFR. We further examine the H i-to-stellar-disk size ratio ($D$ H I /$D$ $r$,25 ) of galaxies and find that at log($M$ H I /$M$*) > -0.7, $D$ H I /$D$ $r$,25 is weakly correlated with $M$*. These findings support a picture in which the H I -rich galaxies live in an inside-out disk-growing phase regulated by gas accretion and star formation. In conclusion, the angular momentum of the accreted materials is probably the key parameter in shaping the size of a H I -rich galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Efficacy of a portable, moderate-resolution, fast-scanning differential mobility analyzer for ambient aerosol size distribution measurements

Abstract. Ambient aerosol size distributions obtained with a compact scanning mobility analyzer, the “Spider” differential mobility analyzer (DMA), are compared to those obtained with a conventional mobility analyzer, with specific attention to the effect of mobility resolution on the measured size distribution parameters. The Spider is a 12 cm diameter radial differential mobility analyzer that spans the 10–500 nm size range with 30 s mobility scans. It achieves its compact size by operating at a nominal mobility resolution R=3 (sheath flow = 0.9 L min−1; aerosol flow = 0.3 L min−1) in place of the higher ratio of sheath flow to aerosol flow commonly used. The question addressed here is whether the lower resolution is sufficient to capture key characteristics of ambient aerosol size distributions. The Spider, operated at R=3 with 30 s up- and downscans, was co-located with a TSI 3081 long-column mobility analyzer, operated at R=10 with a 360 s sampling duty cycle. Ambient aerosol data were collected over 26 consecutive days of continuous operation, in Pasadena, CA. Over the 17–500 nm size range, the two instruments exhibit excellent correlation in the total particle number concentrations and geometric mean diameters, with regression slopes of 1.13 and 1.00, respectively. Our results suggest that particle sizing at a lower resolution than typically employed may be sufficient to obtain key properties of ambient size distributions, at least for these two moments of the size distribution. Moreover, it enables better counting statistics, as the wider transfer function for a given aerosol flow rate results in a higher counting rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sizing ice hydrometeor populations using the dual-wavelength radar ratio

Dual-wavelength (3.2 and 0.32 cm, i.e., X- and W-radar bands) radar ratio (DWR) measurements in ice clouds and precipitation using Canada's National Research Council Institute for Aerospace Research airborne radar are compared to closely collocated particle microphysical in situ sampling data in order to develop relations between DWR and characteristic hydrometeor size. This study uses the radar and in situ data sets collected during the In-Cloud ICing and Large-drop Experiment (ICICLE) campaign in midlatitude frontal clouds. Since atmospheric particle scattering at X band is predominantly in the Rayleigh regime and the W-band frequency is the highest frequency usually used for hydrometeor remote sensing, the X–W-band combination provides a relatively strong dual-wavelength reflectivity difference. This study considers radar and in situ measurements conducted in relatively homogeneous cloud and precipitation conditions. Measurements show that under these conditions, the difference between the X-band radar reflectivities observed with vertical and horizontal pointing of the radar beam are generally small and often negligible. However, W-band reflectivities at vertical beam pointing are, on average, larger than those for horizontal beam pointing by about 4 dB, which is a non-Rayleigh scattering effect from preferentially oriented non-spherical particles. A horizontal radar beam DWR–mean volume particle size relation, D v , provides robust estimates of this characteristic size for populations of particles with different habits. Uncertainties of D v retrievals using DWR are around 0.6 mm when D v is greater than approximately 1 mm. Size estimates using vertical radar beam DWRs have larger uncertainties due to smaller dual-wavelength signals and stronger influences of hydrometeor habits and orientations at this geometry of beam pointing. Mean relations among different characteristic sizes, which describe the entire particle size distribution (PSD), such as D v , and other sizes used in various applications (e.g., the mean, effective, and median sizes) are derived, so the results of this study can be used for estimating different PSD characteristic sizes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Size and modal analyses of fines and ultrafines from some Apollo 17 samples

Scanning electron and optical microscopy techniques have been used to determine the grain-size frequency distributions and morphology-based modal analyses of fine and ultrafine fractions of some Apollo 17 regolith samples. There are significant and large differences between the grain-size frequency distributions of the less than 10-micron size fraction of Apollo 17 samples, but there are no clear relations to the local geologic setting from which individual samples have been collected. This may be due to effective lateral mixing of regolith particles in this size range by micrometeoroid impacts. None of the properties of the frequency distributions support the idea of selective transport of any fine grain-size fraction, as has been proposed by other workers. All of the particle types found in the coarser size fractions also occur in the less than 10-micron particles. In the size range from 105 to 10 microns there is a strong tendency for the percentage of regularly shaped glass to increase as the graphic mean grain size of the less than 1-mm size fraction decreases, both probably being controlled by exposure age.

Greene, G. M.↗

The particle size of Martian aeolian dunes

The effective particle size of unconsolidated materials on the Martian surface can be determined from thermal inertia, due to a pore size dependence of thermal conductivity at Martian atmospheric pressures. Because dunes consist of a narrow range of well-sorted, unconsolidated particles, they provide for a test of the relationship between particle size and thermal inertia calculated from midinfrared emission data for the Martian surface. Two independent approaches are used. First, thermal inertia data indicate that Martian dunes have an average particle size of about 500 +/-100 microns, or medium to coarse sand. Second, expected dune particle sizes are determined from grain trajectory calculations and the particle size transition from suspension to saltation. On earth, the transition occurs for a grain when the ratio of the terminal fall velocity to the wind friction speed, u*(t) is near unity; for grains at u*(t) this occurs at about 52 microns. Terrrestrial dune sands have a mean of 250 microns and are composed entirely of grains greater than 52 microns. The corresponding Martian transition grain size is about 210 microns, suggesting that Martian dunes should be significantly coarser than terrestrial dunes. Grain saltation path length as a function of particle size also shows that, under Martian conditions, larger grains than on earth will become suspended. Both approaches indicate that Martian dune sand should be coarser than terrestrial dune sand. These results closely match the grain sizes determined from thermal inertia models, providing the first direct test of the validity of these models for actual Martian surface materials.

Edgett, Kenneth S.↗

A test of galaxy evolutionary models via angular sizes

The relationship between angular size, magnitude, and redshift of faint galaxies is explored as a potential tool to distinguish between galaxy evolutionary models. Different models, based on merging, mild luminosity evolution, and no evolution, lead to different predictions of the angular size distribution, redshift- size relation, and magnitude-size relation. The merging model predicts significantly smaller sizes for faint galaxies than the standard model, because of the requirement for more intrinsically small faint objects at high redshift. A dwarf-rich no-evolution model also predicts small sizes for faint galaxies. The mild luminosity evolution model predicts more luminous galaxies of large angular size at high redshift, as does a standard no-evolution model. Prefurbishment Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Medium Deep Survey observations of magnitudes and sizes of faint galaxies indicate an excess of small versus large faint galaxies, favoring the dwarf rich, no evolution model with respect to the merging model; the other two models are more discrepant with the data. While these results cannot yet rule out with certainty any of the proposed models, they demonstrate the potential of angular size to discriminate between models of galaxy evolution, especially with the high-resolution HST wide field/planetary camera-2 (WFPC2) data.

Im, Myungshin↗

Probing the Magnetic Causes of CMEs: Free Magnetic Energy More Important Than Either Size Or Twist

To probe the magnetic causes of CMEs, we have examined three types of magnetic measures: size, twist and total nonpotentiality (or total free magnetic energy) of an active region. Total nonpotentiality is roughly the product of size times twist. For predominately bipolar active regions, we have found that total nonpotentiality measures have the strongest correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 75% prediction success rate), while size and twist measures each have a weaker correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 65% prediction success rate) (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, ApJ, 644, 2006). For multipolar active regions, we find that the CME-prediction success rates for total nonpotentiality and size are about the same as for bipolar active regions. We also find that the size measure correlation with CME productivity is nearly all due to the contribution of size to total nonpotentiality. We have a total nonpotentiality measure that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram of the active region and that is as strongly correlated with CME productivity as are any of our total-nonpotentiality measures from deprojected vector magnetograms. We plan to further expand our sample by using MDI magnetograms of each active region in our sample to determine its total nonpotentiality and size on each day that the active region was within 30 deg. of disk center. The resulting increase in sample size will improve our statistics and allow us to investigate whether the nonpotentiality threshold for CME production is nearly the same or significantly different for multipolar regions than for bipolar regions. In addition, we will investigate the time rates of change of size and total nonpotentiality as additional causes of CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

New Measurements of the Particle Size Distribution of Apollo 11 Lunar Soil 10084

We have initiated a major new program to determine the grain size distribution of nearly all lunar soils collected in the Apollo program. Following the return of Apollo soil and core samples, a number of investigators including our own group performed grain size distribution studies and published the results [1-11]. Nearly all of these studies were done by sieving the samples, usually with a working fluid such as Freon(TradeMark) or water. We have measured the particle size distribution of lunar soil 10084,2005 in water, using a Microtrac(TradeMark) laser diffraction instrument. Details of our own sieving technique and protocol (also used in [11]). are given in [4]. While sieving usually produces accurate and reproducible results, it has disadvantages. It is very labor intensive and requires hours to days to perform properly. Even using automated sieve shaking devices, four or five days may be needed to sieve each sample, although multiple sieve stacks increases productivity. Second, sieving is subject to loss of grains through handling and weighing operations, and these losses are concentrated in the finest grain sizes. Loss from handling becomes a more acute problem when smaller amounts of material are used. While we were able to quantitatively sieve into 6 or 8 size fractions using starting soil masses as low as 50mg, attrition and handling problems limit the practicality of sieving smaller amounts. Third, sieving below 10 or 20microns is not practical because of the problems of grain loss, and smaller grains sticking to coarser grains. Sieving is completely impractical below about 5- 10microns. Consequently, sieving gives no information on the size distribution below approx.10 microns which includes the important submicrometer and nanoparticle size ranges. Finally, sieving creates a limited number of size bins and may therefore miss fine structure of the distribution which would be revealed by other methods that produce many smaller size bins.

McKay, D.S.↗