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At least 127 records · Page 7

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

SDN-Based Smart Cyber Switching (SCS) for Cyber Restoration of a Digital Substation

In recent years, critical infrastructure and power grids have increasingly been targets of cyber-attacks, causing widespread and extended blackouts. Digital substations are particularly vulnerable to such cyber incursions, jeopardizing grid stability. This paper addresses these risks by proposing a cybersecurity framework that leverages software-defined networking (SDN) to bolster the resilience of substations based on the IEC- 61850 standard. The research introduces a strategy involving smart cyber switching (SCS) for mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for restoration, ensuring ongoing operational integrity and cybersecurity within a substation. The SCS framework improves the physical network’s behavior (i.e., leveraging commercial SDN capabilities) by incorporating an adaptive port controller (APC) module for dynamic port management and an intrusion detection system (IDS) to detect and counteract malicious IEC-61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented system event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. The framework’s effectiveness is validated through comprehensive simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, demonstrating its ability to sustain substation operations during cyber-attacks and significantly improve the overall resilience of the power grid.

Liu, Chen-Ching (ORCID:0000000289417958)↗

Optimizing Grid-interactive Efficient Building Designs with Stacked Value Streams

Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) are those characterized by the combination of energy efficiency and demand flexibility with smart technologies and communications to not only deliver greater affordability and comfort to buildings, but also help utilities manage grid operations and lower system costs. This paper presents an innovative techno-economic assessment framework to effectively examine different GEB design options, explore various use cases, define technically achievable benefits, and thereby assist in informed decision-making. In particular, building load flexibility, thermal storage, and battery energy storage are considered. Advanced optimal dispatch problem is formulated to maximize the stacked value streams from multiple, competing use cases, subject to the physical capabilities and operational flexibility associated with different designs and configurations. Comprehensive case studies were performed for a real-world building to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different GEB designs and offer in-depth insights. It was found that the proposed assessment method could effectively capture the costs and benefits linked to each GEB design option. Furthermore, the study revealed that outage mitigation and demand response are the two most significant sources of benefits for GEBs.

Ma, Xu↗

Connected Thermostat Alternatives for Room Air Conditioners and Minisplit Heat Pumps

The availability of smart, connected thermostats has improved climate control, energy efficiency, and grid demand-response programs for central HVAC systems. However, a significant gap exists in addressing integrated control systems for point-source heating and cooling systems such as window air-conditioners (window ACs) and mini-split heat pumps (MSHPs). This report examines the emerging market of third-party connected thermostats tailored for these systems, focusing on their effectiveness, reliability, and potential barriers to adoption.This study evaluates several commercially available products designed for room ACs and MSHPs through a series of laboratory tests. While these infrared-based (IR-based) thermostats offer remote temperature control and scheduling via mobile apps, our findings reveal that none are seamless, with reliability of basic functions being a critical factor. Promising features include integration of indoor air quality metrics and time-of-use pricing, but the latter are not yet available in the U.S. Barriers to broad user acceptance include non-seamless setup processes, challenges in thermostat placement, and unclear product differentiation. There is a pressing need for research and development in enabling MSHPs and central thermostats to coordinate, enhancing energy savings and comfort in retrofit applications. This study underscores the importance of further innovation in connected thermostat technology to address the diverse needs of single-zone HVAC systems and promote efficient energy management in households.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Machine-Learning-Based Mapping and Modeling of Solar Energy with Ultra-High Spatiotemporal Granularity

Despite the rapid growth of solar energy, we still lack a dynamic, high-fidelity database that tracks the spatiotemporal variations of solar PVs and their associated infrastructures across different places at a spatially resolved scale. The absence of such data presents a barrier to various applications such as solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar incentive design, and climate risk assessment. In this project, we aim to bridge this gap by developing AI-based algorithms to extract granular information about solar PV installations and their associated infrastructures (i.e., distribution grids) from widely available unstructured data like remote sensing images and street views. As a result, we have built the Solar Energy Atlas, a fine-grained, large-scale geospatial overlay of distributed solar PVs and distribution grids. On top of it, we have advanced the understanding of solar adoption and distribution grid vulnerability to climate-induced extremes. Our major contributions can be summarized as follow: (1) By developing new AI algorithms, we have built the most comprehensive solar PV spatiotemporal database covering the entire US. This is the first time we obtained the exact GPS locations, size, subtype, and installation year information for rooftop solar PVs across the US. This database can be used for solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar energy policy analysis and design, and spatially-resolved climate risk assessment. (2) Leveraging this database, we have uncovered the socioeconomic driving factors that are correlated with earlier onset of solar adoption and higher saturated adoption levels. We have identified the heterogeneity in the effects of different types of financial incentives on solar adoption and provided implications for tailoring incentive design based on local income levels to promote equitable solar adoption. (3) We have developed a distribution grid GIS mapping algorithm which can obtain granular geospatial and topology information about distribution grids using multi-modal open data, reducing the dependency on hard-to-obtain smart meter data of conventional approaches. It shows effectiveness in both the U.S. and Sub-Saharan Africa. Using this algorithm, we have uncovered the non-uniform vulnerability of distribution grids to wildfires in California in the aspects of undergrounding protection and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) preparedness. This has provided important implications for improving the affordability and equity of grid adaptation approaches. (3) We have made our produced database publicly available and provided user-friendly interface to enable various stakeholders and the general public to interact with the data. We have also integrated the produced data into the Data Commons platform to enable the public to access the data and correlate it with other location-specific characteristics simply using natural language as queries. The impact of our project is three-fold: (1) New algorithms for mapping solar PVs and distribution grids across space and time, which are open source to facilitate researchers and industry; (2) New databases of solar PVs and distribution grids that have been made publicly available for engineering, social, and policy applications; (3) New understandings and actionable insights on the potential approaches to promoting solar adoption and reducing energy infrastructure vulnerabilities. In this report, we start by discussing the project background and motivation (section 5), followed by the overview of project objectives (section 6). Results and discussion for each task are presented in section 7. Significant accomplishments are summarized in section 8. This report will be concluded by discussing the paths forwards (section 9), products (section 10), and team roles (section 11).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cybersecurity Enhancement in Digital Substations: Hidden Markov Model-Based Smart Cyber Switching and Threat Response

The rising incidence of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids poses significant threats to the stability and reliability of electrical substations, with potentially devastating consequences such as extended blackouts. This paper introduces an advanced cybersecurity framework aimed at safeguarding IEC 61850-based substations through the integration of software-defined networking (SDN) and digital twin (DT) technologies. The proposed DT-based framework employs smart cyber switching (SCS) for proactive threat mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for swift system restoration, thereby maintaining continuous operational integrity and robust cybersecurity defenses. Central to this framework is the adaptive port controller (APC), which enables dynamic port management to adapt to evolving threats, and an intrusion detection system (IDS) designed to detect and neutralize malicious attacks on IEC 61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented substation event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. Further, novel predictive intrusion detection and response (PIDR) algorithm is implemented on a digital substation (DS) to predict the best route to be taken by the attacker. The efficacy of these comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks is validated through rigorous simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, showcasing the system’s ability to sustain substation operations amidst cyber-attacks.

Digital substation↗

An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Spatiotemporal Optimization of Electric Vehicle Fast-Charging Station Demand

With increasing electric vehicle (EV) adoption, managing public fast-charging demand effectively is crucial to avoid grid strain. This study investigates the potential of using dynamic pricing schemes to address this challenge. Presented in this study is a scalable agent-based simulation framework, which is applied to a case study in Richmond, Virginia, that assumes a 50% EV adoption rate in 2040. Two pricing schemes are compared: (1) a dynamic-pricing scheme based on station utilization and (2) a dynamic-pricing scheme based on peak power at the station. These schemes are compared to two baseline scenarios: (1) unscheduled first-come, first-served and (2) scheduled with constant price. The study’s results suggest that dynamic pricing has the potential to influence EV charging behavior, inducing both spatial and temporal shifts, but does so at the cost of inducing inconvenience to EV drivers. The results suggest the peak-power dynamic pricing scheme has the potential to mitigate peak demand pressures on the grid with minimal inconvenience, offering a promising approach for sustainable EV charging infrastructure expansion.

33 - ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Key Grid-Interactive Efficient Building Technologies for Federal and Commercial Facilities

This report serves as a resource for building owners and managers interested in deploying GEB technologies in federal and commercial facilities. This document also provides an overview of smart buildings and the prioritization and categorization of GEB technologies that have a high potential to provide grid services.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Poster Abstract: Leveraging Large Language Models to Reveal Interpretable Cooling Behaviors from Smart Thermostat Data

Frequent heatwaves and hot summers increasingly challenge occupant comfort, health, and energy grid stability. Addressing these challenges requires a detailed understanding of household cooling behaviors, such as thermostat adjustments and adaptive responses to extreme conditions. Traditional analyses often rely on aggregated numerical metrics that overlook subtle but important household-specific variations. In this study, we introduce a generalizable methodology that integrates large language models (LLMs) with vision capabilities to enable scalable and detailed analysis of residential thermostat data. Using Ecobee's Donate Your Data (DYD) dataset—which provides five-minute records of indoor temperatures, thermostat setpoints, and HVAC runtimes—we focus on two U.S. cities with contrasting summer climates : Austin (TX) and Phoenix (AZ). Because raw time-series data are not well suited for direct LLM analysis, we transform them into visual representations, such as daily indoor temperature trajectories and weekly runtime histograms, to better capture behavioral variations. Leveraging LLMs' visual interpretation, we extract descriptive behavioral features, including temperature preferences, time-of-day cooling orientation, anticipatory versus reactive heatwave responses, and behavioral consistency. These semantic features support unsupervised clustering to identify distinct occupant archetypes at scale, revealing differences—such as morning-centric anticipatory coolers versus households that shift toward warmer setpoints during heatwaves—that can inform demand response, resilience planning, and health-aware interventions. By converting raw numerical data into interpretable behavioral patterns, this methodology enables scalable and practical analysis of occupant behavior, supporting actionable insights for comfort, resilience, and energy management.

Nihar, Kopal↗

Packages of Distributed Energy Technologies Demonstrating Demand Flexibility at Community Scale

The combination of increased electric load growth across all sectors, deferred electrical infrastructure investment, and other factors resulting in variable electric power supply, has created technical challenges to maintaining a resilient and reliable grid. Many federal, regional, and local efforts are in play to modernize the electric grid, including advancing building technologies and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are utilizing smarter controls to become responsive to both occupant and grid needs. This report reviews ten pilot projects demonstrating how groups of buildings combined with behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs such as electric vehicle (EV) charging, battery storage, flexible HVAC and domestic hot water systems, and photovoltaic systems can reliably and cost effectively provide grid services. Each of the ten pilot projects aim to deliver both energy efficiency and demand flexibility (DF) while supporting load growth. The ten demonstration teams are piloting flexible DER packages across diverse communities of residential and commercial buildings to address a variety of regional grid needs. The outcomes of these pilot projects will be used to inform future scaling through utility program development. This paper characterizes the ten teams, showcasing the decision-making process used by each group to develop their packages (Section 2), the grid services they plan to deliver (Section 3), the types of DER packages selected for deployment within building sectors (Section 4) and trends between building sector, DER types, and grid services In order to achieve community scale benefits, the pilot projects must utilize aggregated control mechanisms for coordinating buildings and DERs together. Several types of coordinated control architectures have evolved amongst the teams, influenced by use type, existing market conditions, and integration type. Three coordinated controls architectures have been characterized, highlighting their use cases, benefits, challenges, and tradeoffs in their design. These insights can aid utilities, control vendors, and developers in scaling community-level energy systems (Paul, 2024). Ultimately, the technology packages selected by the ten teams will be coordinated to provide power system services, also known as grid services. Insights from these demonstrations will be useful for grid operators, regulators, aggregators and other stakeholders as they look to deploy demand flexible resources as grid services in the future. The grid services that each team is targeting for demonstration are described in Section 3 and Section 4. Methods for evaluating the grid services have been described in the paper Metrics for Evaluating Grid Service Provision from Communities of Grid-interactive and Efficient Buildings and other DER (MacDonald, 2023). To identify technology packages for demonstration, Section 2 shows that project teams used a range of analysis approaches, including building energy modeling, AMI data analysis, cost-benefit frameworks, and utility pilot data. Some teams emphasized technical modeling to quantify grid impacts and demand reduction potential, while others prioritized economic evaluations, stakeholder input, or exploratory pilots to inform deployment decisions. This diversity reflects the need to tailor selection methods to project goals, available data, and organizational context. Section 5 discusses trends between the DER technologies deployed and the grid service provisions from each team. Residential buildings (multifamily and single family) lean towards technologies that enhance energy efficiency (e.g. weatherization upgrades, smart thermostats) and onsite power generation integration (e.g. solar PV). Commercial building demonstrations prioritize technologies that ensure operational reliability (e.g. battery storage) and centralized energy management systems and optimization solutions. Teams that are deploying controllable storage-based technologies are more likely to provide grid services that require a near real-time response. Teams incorporating load shifting technologies like smart thermostats with HEMs are likely to include energy markets participation and customer bill management offerings. Campus demonstrations are adopting diverse sets of DERs to emphasize renewable generation, paired with centralized control. This section also describes technologies that were considered during project planning but ultimately excluded from final deployment. These demonstrations reveal that effective DER package design should be tailored to building type, customer segment, and construction vintage. Multifamily buildings benefit from centralized HVAC upgrades and supervisory controls, while single-family homes are well-suited for individualized technologies like solar, storage, and smart home energy monitors. Commercial and campus settings prioritize EMIS integration and load optimization. New construction enables cost-effective integration of DER-ready infrastructure, whereas retrofits require deployments aligned with owner and tenant value streams. For utility program planners, early coordination with developers and building owners, paired with segmented and modular program offerings, can improve adoption, scalability, and grid impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Carl T. Hayden Veterans Affairs Medical Center: Smart Buildings Case Study

The purpose of this smart buildings case study is to showcase a leading example of a GEB renovation project in the federal buildings space and provide key information on the technology and control upgrades, costs, and energy and utility bill savings. This case study also provides information and recommendations for selecting energy conservation measures (ECMs) and choosing energy and cost reduction strategies from the energy management team at the site. The findings from this successful GEB project can be used to help pave the way for additional GEB retrofits in the future. The Carl T. Hayden Veterans Affairs (VA) Medical Center in Phoenix, Arizona, demonstrates that GEB strategies and technologies can be realistically deployed today across buildings with substantial energy and cost savings. The project implemented both ECMs and grid-interactive technologies and controls strategies, making it a leading example of a smart, sustainable, and efficient commercial building.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Visibility-enhanced model-free deep reinforcement learning algorithm for voltage control in realistic distribution systems using smart inverters

Increasing integration of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) into distribution networks could result in adverse effects on grid operation. Traditional model-based control algorithms require accurate model information that is difficult to acquire and thus are challenging to implement in practice. Here, this paper proposes a surrogate model-enabled grid visibility scheme to empower deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach for distribution network voltage regulation using PV inverters with minimal system knowledge. In contrast to existing DRL methods, this paper presents and corroborates the adverse impact of missing load information on DRL performance and, based on this finding, proposes a surrogate model methodology to impute load information utilizing observable data. Additionally, a multi-fidelity neural network is utilized to construct the DRL training environment, chosen for its efficient data utilization and enhanced robustness to data uncertainty. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are assessed by considering DRL testing across varying degrees of observable load information and diverse training environments on a realistic power system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Time and Frequency Analysis of Load Profile Data

Technology advancements and integration of modern advanced metering systems can monitor, forecast, inform, control, and operate the building's mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems. They offer a higher level of information, which can contribute to making smart buildings more energy efficient and to making them closer to becoming grid-interactive energy efficient buildings (GEB). This paper builds on the ongoing research on variability analysis of a case study building with a 1-minute load profile and examines the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) process in the frequency domain to quantify the signal's energy in each bandwidth, with respect to each end-use category. Moreover, the amount of variability in the total variability is not similar among the end-use categories. This information is needed to understand the behavior of the variability in the frequency domain for future applications, such as generating synthetic load profiles with a similar frequency spectrum as the measured signal.

decomposition↗

DER Inverter Control Fault Ride Through Model in Accordance with IEEE 1547-2018 Std

Distributed Energy Resources (DER) with smart inverters are becoming more prevalent as the need for renewable energy and grid stability increases. An important challenge arises when considering that inverterbased generation methods contribute less current during faults, rendering traditional overcurrent protection unsatisfactory. DERs have fault ride-through requirements when operating in high or low voltage, outlined by IEEE Std. 1547-2018. Faults cause the voltage to reach abnormal steady state magnitudes, depending on the fault resistance and fault type. There are several high voltage and low voltage ride-through zones defined by IEEE Std. 1547-2018. Each zone’s ride through duration decreases as the applicable voltage measurement, i.e., the phase RMS voltage, deviates from its nominal value. This presentation demonstrates the implementation of IEEE Std. 1547-2018 high and low voltage ridethrough grid support functions using a preexisting RSCAD model, discussing the challenges presented during this process. The implemented controls monitor the filtered phase voltages to have a more accurate reading of the applicable voltages. The controls sense the duration that the applicable voltage remains in a specific zone. The breaker trips and ceases energization to the grid when the duration is exceeded. The standard allows the operator to adjust the ride-through times and voltage zones from the default settings. These ranges are implemented into the runtime, which acts as the operator’s SCADA. The results show the accuracy of the voltage measurements, which remain within the IEEE Std. 1547-2018 for all cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Scalable Unit Commitment with Security Constrained AC Power Flow via ADMM and Hybrid Modeling Strategies

This research introduces a more efficient way to optimize power grid operations, breaking the problem into manageable steps and using advanced mathematical techniques to speed up calculations. By incorporating smart heuristics, improved preprocessing, and contingency analysis, the approach allows operators to make better decisions faster. These innovations enhance our understanding of how to optimize energy generation, making it possible to anticipate failures before they happen, reduce system costs, and improve overall grid performance. Ultimately, this research helps bridge the gap between theoretical models and real-world applications, paving the way for a smarter, more resilient power grid. This research directly benefits the public by making electricity more affordable, reliable, and sustainable. By improving how power grids schedule and distribute electricity, the project helps energy providers reduce operational costs, which can lead to lower electricity prices for consumers. Additionally, the ability to predict and prevent power system failures enhances grid reliability, reducing the likelihood of blackouts that can disrupt homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure such as hospitals. From an environmental perspective, optimizing power generation reduces energy waste and lowers carbon emissions, contributing to cleaner air and a more sustainable energy system. Furthermore, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent, these advancements make the power grid more resilient, ensuring communities are better prepared for emergencies and natural disasters. By strengthening the nation's energy infrastructure, this research plays a crucial role in improving economic stability, public safety, and environmental sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗