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At least 127 records · Page 7

Human exposure to large solar particle events in space

Whenever energetic solar protons produced by solar particle events traverse bulk matter, they undergo various nuclear and atomic collision processes which significantly alter the physical characteristics and biologically important properties of their transported radiation fields. These physical interactions and their effect on the resulting radiation field within matter are described within the context of a recently developed deterministic, coupled neutron-proton space radiation transport computer code (BRYNTRN). Using this computer code, estimates of human exposure in interplanetary space, behind nominal (2 g/sq cm) and storm shelter (20 g/sq cm) thicknesses of aluminum shielding, are made for the large solar proton event of August 1972. Included in these calculations are estimates of cumulative exposures to the skin, ocular lens, and bone marrow as a function of time during the event. Risk assessment in terms of absorbed dose and dose equivalent is discussed for these organs. Also presented are estimates of organ exposures for hypothetical, worst-case flare scenarios. The rate of dose equivalent accumulation places this situation in an interesting region of dose rate between the very low values of usual concern in terrestrial radiation environments and the high-dose-rate values prevalent in radiation therapy.

Townsend, L. W.↗

Solar Flares, Type III Radio Bursts, CMEs, and Energetic Particles

Despite the fact that it has been well known since the earliest observations that solar energetic particle events are well associated with solar flares it is often considered that the association is not physically significant. Instead, in large events, the particles are considered to be only accelerated at a shock driven by the coronal mass ejection (CME) that is also always present. If particles are accelerated in the associated flare, it is claimed that such particles do not find access to open field lines and therefore do not escape from the low corona. However recent work has established that long lasting type III radio bursts extending to low frequencies are associated with all prompt solar particle events. Such bursts establish the presence of open field lines. Furthermore, tracing the radio bursts to the lowest frequencies, generated near the observer, shows that the radio producing electrons gain access to a region of large angular extent. It is likely that the electrons undergo cross field transport and it seems reasonable that ions do also. Such observations indicate that particle propagation in the inner heliosphere is not yet fully understood. They also imply that the contribution of flare particles in major particle events needs to be properly addressed.

Cane, H. V.↗

Operational Aspects of Space Radiation Analysis

Minimizing astronaut's short and long-term medical risks arising from exposure to ionizing radiation during space missions is a major concern for NASA's manned spaceflight program, particularly exploration missions. For ethical and legal reasons, NASA follows the "as low as reasonably achievable" (ALARA) principal in managing astronaut's radiation exposures. One implementation of ALARA is the response to space weather events. Of particular concern are energetic solar particle events, and in low Earth orbit (LEO), electron belt enhancements. To properly respond to these events, NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG), in partnership with the NOAA Space Environment Center (SEC), provides continuous flight support during U.S. manned missions. In this partnership, SEC compiles space weather data from numerous ground and space based assets and makes it available in near real-time to SRAG (along with alerts and forecasts), who in turn uses these data as input to models to calculate estimates of the resulting exposure to astronauts. These calculations and vehicle instrument data form the basis for real-time recommendations to flight management. It is also important to implement ALARA during the design phase. In order to appropriately weigh the risks associated with various shielding and vehicle configuration concepts, the expected environment must be adequately characterized for nominal and worst case scenarios for that portion of the solar cycle and point in space. Even with the best shielding concepts and materials in place (unlikely), there will be numerous occasions where the crew is at greater risk due to being in a lower shielded environment (short term transit or lower shielded vehicles, EVAs), so that accurate space weather forecasts and nowcasts, of particles at the relevant energies, will be crucial to protecting crew health and safety.

Weyland, M. D.↗

Major Solar Eruptions and High-Energy Particle Events During Solar Cycle 24

We report on a study of all major solar eruptions that occurred on the frontside of the Sun during the rise to peak phase of cycle 24 (first 62 months) in order to understand the key factors affecting the occurrence of large solar energetic particle events (SEPs) and ground level enhancement (GLE) events. The eruptions involve major flares with soft X-ray peak flux greater than or equal to 5.0 x10(exp−5) Wm(exp−2) (i.e., flare size greater than or equal to M5.0) and accompanying coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The selection criterion was based on the fact that the only front-side GLE in cycle 24 (GLE 71) had a flare size of M5.1. Only approximately 37% of the major eruptions from the western hemisphere resulted in large SEP events. Almost the same number of large SEP events was produced in weaker eruptions (flare size less than M5.0), suggesting that the soft X-ray flare is not a good indicator of SEP or GLE events. On the other hand, the CME speed is a good indicator of SEP and GLE events because it is consistently high supporting the shock acceleration mechanism. We found the CME speed, magnetic connectivity to Earth (in longitude and latitude), and ambient conditions as the main factors that contribute to the lack of high-energy particle events during cycle 24. Several eruptions poorly connected to Earth (eastern-hemisphere or behind-the-west-limb events) resulted in very large SEP events detected by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. Some very fast CMEs, likely to have accelerated particles to GeV energies, did not result in a GLE event because of poor latitudinal connectivity. The stringent latitudinal requirement suggests that the highest-energy particles are likely accelerated in the nose part of shocks, while the lower energy particles are accelerated at all parts. There were also well-connected fast CMEs, which did not seem to have accelerated high-energy particles due to possible unfavorable ambient conditions (high Alfven speed, overall reduction in acceleration efficiency in cycle 24).

Flares↗

Results from the Heavy Ions In Space (HIIS) experiment on the ionic charge state of solar energetic particles

It has long been known that low-energy solar energetic particles (SEP's) are partially-ionized. For example, in large, so-called 'gradual' solar energetic particle events, at approximately 1 MeV/nucleon the measured mean ionic charge state, Q, of Fe ions is 14.1 +/- 0.2, corresponding to a plasma temperature of approximately 2 MK in the coronal or solar-wind source material. Recent studies, which have greatly clarified the origin of solar energetic particles and their relation to solar flares, suggest that ions in these SEP events are accelerated not at a flare site, but by shocks propagating through relatively low-density regions in the interplanetary medium. As a result, the partially-ionized states observed at low energies are expected to continue to higher energies. However, up to now there have been no high-energy measurements of ionic charge states to confirm this notion. We report here HIIS observations of Fe-group ions at 50-600 MeV/nucleon, at energies and fluences which cannot be explained by fully-ionized galactic cosmic rays, even in the presence of severe geomagnetic cutoff suppression. Above approximately 200 MeV/nucleon, all features of our data -- fluence, energy spectrum, elemental composition, and arrival directions -- can be explained by the large SEP events of October 1989, provided that the mean ionic charge state at these high energies is comparable to the measured value at approximately 1 MeV/nucleon. By comparing the HIIS observations with measurements in interplanetary space in October 1989, we determine the mean ionic charge state of SEP Fe ions at approximately 200-600 MeV/nucleon to be Q = 13.4 plus or minus 1.0, in good agreement with the observed value at approximately 1 MeV/nucleon. The source of the ions below approximately 200 MeV/nucleon is not yet clear. Partially-ionized ions are less effectively deflected by the Earth's magnetic field than fully-ionized cosmic rays and therefore have greatly enhanced access to low-Earth orbit. Moreover, at the high energies observed in HIIS, these ions can penetrate typical amounts of shielding. We discuss the significance of the HIIS results for estimates of the radiation hazard posed by large SEP events to satellites in low-Earth orbit, including the proposed Space Station orbit. Finally, we comment on previous reports of low-energy below-cutoff Fe-group ions, which some authors have interpreted as evidence for partially-ionized galactic cosmic rays. The LDEF flux levels are much smaller than the corresponding fluxes in these previous reports, implying that the source of these ions has an unusual solar-cycle variation and/or strongly increases with decreasing altitude.

Tylka, Allan J.↗

Formation of a compound stream between 0.85 AU and 6.2 AU and its effects on solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays

This paper describes the formation of a compound stream as a result of the interaction and coalescence of a series of five streams (a slow transient stream, two corotating streams, and two exceptionally fast transient streams) observed by the Helios B (HB) satellite near 0.85 AU. The compound stream and two merged interaction regions were also observed by the Voyager 1 satellite near 6.2 AU when it was nearly radially aligned with the HB. Closely associated with this compound stream was one of the largest solar energetic particle events observed beyond 5 AU. The relationship of this compound stream and its magnetic fields to the intensity profiles of solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays is discussed.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

Sub-GLE Solar Particle Events and the Implications for Lightly-Shielded Systems Flown During an Era of Low Solar Activity

Many of the large space missions must be very rigorous in their designs to reduce risk from radiation damage as much as possible. Some ways of reducing this risk have been to build in multiple redundancies, purchase/develop radiation hardened electronics parts, and plan for worst case radiation environment scenarios. These methods work well for these ambitious missions that can afford the costs associated with these meticulous efforts. However, there have been more small spacecraft and CubeSats with smaller duration missions entering the space arena, which can take some additional risks, but cannot afford to implement all of these risk-reducing methods. Therefore, one way to quantify the radiation exposure risk for these smaller spacecraft would be to investigate the radiation environment pertinent to the mission to better understand these radiation exposures, rather than always designing to the infrequent, worst-case environment. In this study, we have investigated 34 historical solar particle events (1974-2010) that occurred during a time period when the sun spot number (SSN) was less than 30. These events contain Ground Level Events (GLE), sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs(sup 1-3). GLEs are extremely energetic solar particle events (SPEs) having proton energies often extending into the several GeV range and producing secondary particles in the atmosphere, mostly neutrons, observed with ground station neutron monitors. Sub-GLE events are less energetic, extending into the several hundred MeV range, but without producing detectable levels of secondary atmospheric particles. Sub-sub GLEs are even less energetic with an observable increase in protons at energies greater than 30 MeV, but no observable proton flux above 300 MeV. The spectra for these events were fitted using a double power law fit in particle rigidity, called the Band fit method. The differential spectra were then input into the NASA Langley Research Center HZETRN 2005, which is a high-energy particle transport/dose code, to determine the dose in various thicknesses of aluminum, representing the spacecraft. This paper will detail the absorbed dose results of each of these environments, as well as analyze the data to better understand the doses over small thicknesses that are more relevant to small spacecraft and satellites, such as CubeSats. In addition, we will discuss the implications of these data and provide some recommendations that may be useful to spacecraft designers of these smaller spacecraft/CubeSat-type missions.

Atwell, William↗

Particle acceleration by the sun

A review is given of the analysis of new observations of energetic particles and energetic secondary emissions obtained over the solar maxium (approx. 1980) by the Solar Maximum mission, Hinotori, the international Sun-Earth Explorer, Helios, Explorer satellites, and Voyager spacecraft. Solar energetic particle events observed in space, He(3)- rich events, solar gamma rays and neutrons, and solar neutrinos are discussed.

Lin, R. P.↗

Fermi, Wind, and SOHO Observations of Sustained Gamma-Ray Emission from the Sun

We report on the linear relationship between the durations of two types of electromagnetic emissions associated with shocks driven by coronal mass ejections: sustained gamma-ray emission (SGRE) and interplanetary type II radio bursts. The relationship implies that shocks accelerate approximately 10 kiloelectronvolts electrons (for type II bursts) and more than 300 megaelectronvolts protons (for SGRE) roughly over the same duration. The SGRE events are from the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi satellite, while the type II bursts are from the Radio and Plasma Wave Experiment (WAVES) on board the Wind spacecraft. Here we consider five SGRE events that were not included in a previous study of events with longer duration (more than 5 hours). The five events are selected by relaxing the minimum duration to 3 hours. We found that some SGRE events had a tail that seems to last until the end of the associated type II burst. We pay special attention to the 2011 June 2 SGRE event that did not have a large solar energetic particle event at Earth or at the STEREO spacecraft that was well connected to the eruption. We suggest that the preceding CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) acted as a magnetic barrier that mirrored protons back to Sun.

Gopalswamy, N.↗

Improved Space Weather Observations and Modeling for Aviation Radiation

In recent years there has been a growing interest from the aviation community for space weather radiation forecasts tailored to the needs of the aviation industry. In 2019 several space weather centers began issuing advisories for the International Civil Aviation Organization alerting users to enhancements in the radiation environment at aviation flight levels. Due to a lack of routine observations, radiation modeling is required to specify the dose rates experienced by flight crew and passengers. While mature models exist, support for key observational inputs and further modeling advancements are needed. Observational inputs required from the ground-based neutron monitor network must be financially supported for research studies and operations to ensure real-time data is available for forecast operations and actionable end user decision making. An improved understanding of the geomagnetic field is required to reduce dose rate uncertainties in regions close to the open/closed geomagnetic field boundary, important for flights such as those between the continental US and Europe which operate in this region. Airborne radiation measurements, which are crucial for model validation and improvement, are lacking, particularly during solar energetic particle events. New measurement campaigns must be carried out to ensure progress and in situ atmospheric radiation measurements made available for real-time situational awareness. Furthermore, solar energetic particle forecasting must be improved to move aviation radiation nowcasts to forecasts in order to meet customer requirements for longer lead times for planning and mitigation.

space weather↗

Probability Estimates of Solar Particle Event Doses During a Period of Low Sunspot Number for Thinly-Shielded Spacecraft and Short Duration Missions

In an earlier paper (Atwell, et al., 2015), we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. These SPEs contain Ground Level Events (GLE), sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs (Tylka and Dietrich, 2009, Tylka and Dietrich, 2008, and Atwell, et al., 2008). GLEs are extremely energetic solar particle events having proton energies extending into the several GeV range and producing secondary particles in the atmosphere, mostly neutrons, observed with ground station neutron monitors. Sub-GLE events are less energetic, extending into the several hundred MeV range, but do not produce secondary atmospheric particles. Sub-sub GLEs are even less energetic with an observable increase in protons at energies greater than 30 MeV, but no observable proton flux above 300 MeV. In this paper, we consider those SPEs that occurred during 1973-2010 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. In addition, we provide probability estimates of absorbed dose based on mission duration with a 95% confidence level (CL). We also discuss the implications of these data and provide some recommendations that may be useful to spacecraft designers of these smaller spacecraft.

Atwell, William↗

Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

Barghouty, Nasser↗

The effects of 8 Helios observed solar proton events of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuations

There have been recent suggestions that large fluxes during solar energetic particle events may produce their own turbulence. To verify this argument it becomes essential to find out whether these flows cause an enhancement of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuations. In the present work, power and helicity spectra of the IMF before, during and after 8 Helios-observed solar proton events in the range 0.3 - 1 AU are analyzed. In order to detect proton self generated waves, the time evolution of spectra are followed.

ValdezGalicia, J. F.↗

The "Approximate 150 Day Quasi-Periodicity" in Interplanetary and Solar Phenomena During Cycle 23

A"quasi-periodicity" of approx. 150 days in various solar and interplanetary phenomena has been reported in earlier solar cycles. We suggest that variations in the occurrence of solar energetic particle events, inter-planetary coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storm sudden commenceents during solar cycle 23 show evidence of this quasi-periodicity, which is also present in the sunspot number, in particular in the northern solar hemisphere. It is not, however, prominent in the interplanetary magnetic field strength.

Richardson, I. G.↗

Current models of the intensely ionizing particle environment in space

The Cosmic Ray Effects on MicroElectronics (CREME) model that is currently in use to estimate single event effect rates in spacecraft is described. The CREME model provides a description of the radiation environment in interplanetary space near the orbit of the earth that contains no major deficiencies. The accuracy of the galactic cosmic ray model is limited by the uncertainties in solar modulation. The model for solar energetic particles could be improved by making use of all the data that has been collected on solar energetic particle events. There remain major uncertainties about the environment within the earth's magnetosphere, because of the uncertainties over the charge states of the heavy ions in the anomalous component and solar flares, and because of trapped heavy ions. The present CREME model is valid only at 1 AU, but it could be extended to other parts of the heliosphere. There is considerable data on the radiation environment from 0.2 to 35 AU in the ecliptic plane. This data could be used to extend the CREME model.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗

The October-November, 2003 Solar Activity and its Relationship to the "approx. 155 day" Solar Periodicity

Periodicities of approx. 155 days in various solar and interplanetary phenomena were first discovered during solar cycle 21 and have been shown to be intermittently present in other solar cycles. In the current solar cycle (23), they have been reported in solar energetic particle events and interplanetary coronal mass ejections. We assess whether the "unexpected" October - November 2003 burst of solar activity during the late declining phase of the cycle may have been a manifestation of such a periodic behavior, and hence might have been to some extent "predictable". If the pattern were to continue, episodes of enhanced activity might be expected around April - May and October, 2004. There was a modest increase activity increase in mid-April, 2004 which may conform to this pattern.

Richardson, I. G.↗

The October-November, 2003 Solar Activity and its Relationship to the "approximately 155 day" Solar Periodicity

Periodicities of - 155 days in various solar and interplanetary phenomena were first discovered during solar cycle 21 and have been shown t o be intermittently present in other solar cycles. In the current solar cycle (23), they have been reported in solar energetic particle events and interplanetary coronal maSS ejections. We assess whether the "unexpected" October - November 2003 burst of solar activity during the late declining phase of the cycle may have been a manifestation of such a periodic behavior, and hence might have been to =me extent "predictable". If the pattern were to continue, episodes of enhanced activity might be expected around April - May and October, 2004. There was a mod- est increase activity increase in mid-April, 2004 which may conform to this pattern.

Richardson, I. G.↗

The Solar Wind Defines Space Weather Safety Zones

During the ARTEMIS era, humans again will venture beyond the protection of the Earth’s atmosphere and magnetosphere into the solar wind. It is now well established that the solar wind is responsible for carving out a cavity in cosmic ray flux in the inner heliosphere. The resulting reduction in blood-forming organ dose rate basically enables human exploration. Lesser known or acknowledged is the important role the solar wind plays in shaping the directivity and extents of solar energetic particle events. This influence leads to an effective offset of the source location of the Sun that has the most potential to harm explorers through radiation exposure from major solar eruptions. This presentation will discuss how the solar wind influence renders current measures ineffective but instead demands new and immediate strategies to protect human explorers over the first decades of ARTEMIS exploration missions.

exploration↗