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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
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NASA NTRS2005

Wave-driven Equatorial Annual Oscillation Induced and Modulated by the Solar Cycle

Our model for the solar cycle (SC) modulation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) produces a hemispherically symmetric 12-month Annual Oscillation (AO) in the zonal winds, which is confined to low latitudes. This Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO) is produced by interaction between the anti-symmetric component of SC forcing and the dominant anti-symmetric AO. The EA0 is amplified by the upward propagating small- scale gravity waves (GW), and the oscillation propagates down through the stratosphere like the QBO. The amplitude of the EA0 is relatively small, but its SC modulation contributes significantly to extend the effect to lower altitudes. Although the energy of the EA0 is concentrated at low latitudes, prominent signatures appear in the Polar Regions where the SC produces measurable temperature variations. At lower altitudes, the SC effects are significantly different in the two hemispheres because of the EAO, and due to its GW driven downward propagation the phase of the annual cycle is delayed.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Solar Cycle 24 Behavior and Progress on FISM Version 2 Product

Solar cycle 24 has continued to increase in activity towards its peak expected in late 2013. The updated NOAA/SWPC solar cycle prediction as well as the outlook for solar activity during the MAVEN 1-Earth-year mission will be presented. Also presented will be a status updated on the progress of the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) version 2 product, which will be a deliverable for the MAVEN mission as it will provide the full solar spectrum from 0.1-190 nm at 0.1 nm spectral resolution and 1-minute temporal resolution based on the three EUV diodes from the MAVEN LPW JEUV instrument.

Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar cycle variations in the neutral exosphere inferred from the location of the Venus bow shock

Solar UV and EUV varies significantly during the solar cycle. Pioneer Venus can measure this variation both directly and indirectly. A direct measure of the EUV is obtained from the photoelectron current of the Langmuir probe when the spacecraft is in the solar wind. The indirect measure is by monitoring the location of the Venus bow shock. The UV and EUV both heat the upper atmosphere and ionize it. When solar activity is high, the upper atmosphere should be ionized more rapidly. This effect adds a greater number of planetary ions to the magnetosheath plasma as it flows by Venus. It is this increase in mass flow that causes the Venus bow shock to move away from its solar minimum location. Pioneer Venus has now monitored the location of the bow shock for an entire solar cycle. The bow shock location is well correlated with the variation in EUV flux as measured by the Langmuir probe. The bow shock is farther from Venus than expected from the sunspot number or 10.7 cm solar radio flux, indicating that solar UV radiation may be even stronger at the present time than would be predicted from the relationships determined during the previous solar cycle.

Russell, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Periodicities of the flare occurrence rate in solar cycle 19

The occurrence rate of major flares during solar cycle 19 has been analyzed. A periodicity of 51 d is found, which is one-third of the period found from the flare rates of solar cycles 20 and 21 by various authors. The statistical significance of the periodicity is estimated to be at 99.85-percent confidence level. This periodicity is though to be related to the 153-d periodicity. The template of the phase diagram is well described by a constant plus a sine function. Additionally, an 18-month periodicity is found in the flare rate of the northern hemisphere.

Bai, T.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Spatial evolution of magnetic fields as seen in coronal streamers to 12 R sub o during the solar cycle

Outer coronal photographs made from high altitude aircraft at the solar eclipses of 1966, '70, '72, '73, and '79 which sample various times in the solar cycle are presented. Coronal streamers extending from the solar limb to 12 R sub o are displayed. The evolution of the streamers as they distort magnetic field lines to large distances from the Sun is examined. Results show that the distortion is varied, that the polar plumes can be traced beyond 8 R sub o, diverging apparently along dipole field lines, and that the divergence varies along the solar cycle. Various changes in nonpolar streamers are discussed including the tendency to become radial beyond 3 to 5 R sub o as if controlled by the solar wind.

Keller, C. F.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Effects of Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number on Naive Predictions of Solar Cycle 25

The recalibration of the International Sunspot Number brings new challenges to predictions of Solar Cycle 25. One is that the list of extrema for the original series is no longer usable because the values of all maxima and minima are different for the new version of the sunspot number. Timings of extrema are less sensitive to the recalibration but are a natural result of the calculation. Predictions of Solar Cycle 25 published before 2016 must be converted to the new version of the sunspot number. Any prediction method that looks across the entire time span will have to be reconsidered because values in the nineteenth century were corrected by a larger factor than those in the twentieth century. We report a list of solar maxima and minima values and timings based on the recalibrated sunspot number. Naïve forecasts that depend only on the current values of the time series are common in economic studies. Several naïve predictions of Solar Cycle 25, the climatological average (180 ± 60), two versions of the inertial forecast, and two versions of the even-odd forecast, are derived from that table. The climatological average forecast is the baseline for more accurate predictions and the initial forecast in assimilative models of the Sun. It also provides the error estimate for Monte Carlo techniques that anticipate the long-term effects on the terrestrial environment. The other four predictions are shown to be statistically insignificant.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗
NASA NTRS2012

Near-Earth Solar Wind Flows and Related Geomagnetic Activity During more than Four Solar Cycles (1963-2011)

In past studies, we classified the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types based on inspection of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters in the OMNI database and additional data (e.g., geomagnetic indices, energetic particle, and cosmic ray observations). These flow types are: (1) High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun, (2) Slow, interstream solar wind, and (3) Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections at the Sun, including interplanetary coronal mass ejections and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions. The solar wind classification in these previous studies commenced with observations in 1972. In the present study, as well as updating this classification to the end of 2011, we have extended the classification back to 1963, the beginning of near-Earth solar wind observations, thereby encompassing the complete solar cycles 20 to 23 and the ascending phase of cycle 24. We discuss the cycle-to-cycle variations in near-Earth solar wind structures and l1e related geomagnetic activity over more than four solar cycles, updating some of the results of our earlier studies.

Richardson, Ian G.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons (50-300 MeV) in real-time is shown to be a crucial issue for crew protection.

Myung-Hee, Y. Kim↗
NASA NTRS1997

Influence of Short-Term Solar UV Variability on the Determination of Solar Cycle Minimum

Smoothing solar UV data on rotational timescale (approx. 27 days) improves identification of solar minimum. Smoothing intervals which are not multiples of rotational period (e.g. 35 days) can leave measurable residual signal. No evidence found for periodic behavior on intermediate (50-250 days) time scales during Cycle 22, based on data from three solar UV instruments.

Cebula, Richard P.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Statistical Test of Uniformity in Solar Cycle Indices

Several indices are used to characterize the solar activity cycle. Key among these are: the International Sunspot Number, the Group Sunspot Number, Sunspot Area, and 10.7 cm Radio Flux. A valuable aspect of these indices is the length of the record -- many decades and many (different) 11-year cycles. However, this valuable length-of-record attribute has an inherent problem in that it requires many different observers and observing systems. This can lead to non-uniformity in the datasets and subsequent erroneous conclusions about solar cycle behavior. The sunspot numbers are obtained by counting sunspot groups and individual sunspots on a daily basis. This suggests that the day-to-day and month-to-month variations in these numbers should follow Poisson Statistics and be proportional to the square-root of the sunspot numbers themselves. Examining the historical records of these indices indicates that this is indeed the case - even with Sunspot Area and 10.7 cm Radio Flux. The ratios of the RMS variations to the square-root of the indices themselves are relatively constant with little variation over the phase of each solar cycle or from small to large solar cycles. There are, however, important step-like changes in these ratios associated with changes in observer and/or observer system. Here we show how these variations can be used to construct more uniform datasets.

Hathaway David H.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Solar Cycle and, How Do We Know What We Know?

Through the use of observations, mathematics, mathematical tools (such as graphs), inference, testing, and prediction we have gathered evidence that there are sunspots, a solar cycle, and have begun to understand more about our star, the Sun. We are making progress in understanding the cause of the solar cycle. We expect solar cycle 24 to peak soon. Cycle 24 will be the smallest cycle in 100 years.

Adams, Mitzi↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1982

The 22-year solar cycle - A heliospheric oscillation

A new mechanism is proposed for the origin of the 22-year solar cycle in which the solar cycle is caused by a large scale oscillation of the heliosphere. In its simplest terms the oscillation is directly analogous to an LC oscillator, with the heliospheric current system providing the inductance, and accumulated charge near the heliosphere boundary providing the capacitance. Estimates of the oscillation period using reasonable parameters are close to 22 years.

Gurnett, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The response of ozone to solar proton events during solar cycle 21 - A theoretical interpretation

The effects associated with the solar proton events (SPE) during solar cycle 21 are examined. The only SPE documented to cause an ozone depletion below 45 km (approximately 2 mbar) was the event which occurred on Aug. 4, 1972. The ozone decreases associated with this event follow approximately the theoretically predicted behavior discussed by Heath et al. (1977) and Reagan et al. (1981). Ozone decreases during the July 13, 1982 and the Dec. 8, 1982, SPEs also follow approximately their theoretically predicted behavior between 60 and 85 km. Attention is given to the energy deposition by solar protons and electrons, photochemistry, model descriptions, model results, the solar zenith angle effect, three solar proton events during solar cycle 20, sensitivity studies, and temperature effects.

Jackman, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Radio scintillation variations of the circumsolar plasma over the course of the solar cycle

Interplanetary scintillation observations of the solar wind acceleration region (solar elongation: R approximately 4-30 R(solar mass)) have been performed at the Effelsberg and Pushino telescopes using natural radio sources. The water maser source IRC-20431 was observed at the wavelength lambda = 1.35 cm in a series of nine scintillation experiments performed during the December solar occultations from 1981 to 1994. Dramatic changes in the radial dependence of the scintillation index m(R) were recorded over the course of the 11-year solar cycle. Decidedly reduced scattering, attributed to a pronounced heliolatitude effect, was observed at the closest solar approach distances in the years around solar activity minimum. The anisotropy of the solar scattering region slowly evolves to a spherically symmetric pattern in the years of high solar activity as more intensive scattering returns to the polar latitudes.

Lotova, N. A.↗