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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Solar Flares and Their Prediction

Solar flares and coronal mass ejection's (CMES) can strongly affect the local environment at the Earth. A major challenge for solar physics is to understand the physical mechanisms responsible for the onset of solar flares. Flares, characterized by a sudden release of energy (approx. 10(exp 32) ergs for the largest events) within the solar atmosphere, result in the acceleration of electrons, protons, and heavier ions as well as the production of electromagnetic radiation from hard X-rays to km radio waves (wavelengths approx. = 10(exp -9) cm to 10(exp 6) cm). Observations suggest that solar flares and sunspots are strongly linked. For example, a study of data from 1956-1969, reveals that approx. 93 percent of major flares originate in active regions with spots. Furthermore, the global structure of the sunspot magnetic field can be correlated with flare activity. This talk will review what we know about flare causes and effects and will discuss techniques for quantifying parameters, which may lead to a prediction of solar flares.

Adams, Mitzi L.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Energetics of Solar Flares. VII. Aerodynamic Drag in Coronal Mass Ejections

The free energy that is dissipated in a magnetic reconnection process of a solar flare, generally accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME), has been considered as the ultimate energy source of the global energy budget of solar flares in previous statistical studies. Here we explore the effects of the aerodynamic drag force on CMEs, which supplies additional energy from the slow solar wind to a CME event, besides the magnetic energy supply. For this purpose, we fit the analytical aerodynamic drag model of Cargill and Vršnak et al. to the height–time profiles r(t) of LASCO/SOHO data in 14,316 CME events observed during the first 8 yr (2010–2017) of the Solar Dynamics Observatory era (ensuring EUV coverage with AIA). Our main findings are (1) a mean solar wind speed of w = 472 ± 414 km s(exp −1), (2) a maximum drag-accelerated CME energy of E(drag) <~2 × 10(exp32) erg, (3) a maximum flare-accelerated CME energy of E(flare <~1.5 × 10(exp33) erg, (4) the ratio of the summed kinetic energies of all flare accelerated CMEs to the drag-accelerated CMEs amounts to a factor of 4, (5) the inclusion of the drag force slightly lowers the overall energy budget of CME kinetic energies in flares from ≈7% to ≈4%, and (6) the arrival times of CMEs at Earth can be predicted with an accuracy of ≈23%.

Aschwanden, Markus J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Solar origins of coronal mass ejections

The large scale properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), such as morphology, leading edge speed, and angular width and position, have been cataloged for many events observed with coronagraphs on the Skylab, P-78, and SMM spacecraft. While considerable study has been devoted to the characteristics of the SMEs, their solar origins are still only poorly understood. Recent observational work has involved statistical associations of CMEs with flares and filament eruptions, and some evidence exists that the flare and eruptive-filament associated CMEs define two classes of events, with the former being generally more energetic. Nevertheless, it is found that eruptive-filament CMEs can at times be very energetic, giving rise to interplanetary shocks and energetic particle events. The size of the impulsive phase in a flare-associated CME seems to play no significant role in the size or speed of the CME, but the angular sizes of CMEs may correlate with the scale sizes of the 1-8 angstrom x-ray flares. At the present time, He 10830 angstrom observations should be useful in studying the late development of double-ribbon flares and transient coronal holes to yield insights into the CME aftermath. The recently available white-light synoptic maps may also prove fruitful in defining the coronal conditions giving rise to CMEs.

Kahler, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS2023

Solar Activity Relations in Energetic Electron Events Measured By the MESSENGER Mission

Aims. We perform a statistical study of the relations between the properties of solar energetic electron (SEE) events measured by the MESSENGER mission from 2010 to 2015 and the parameters of the respective parent solar activity phenomena in order to identify the potential correlations between them. During the time of analysis, the MESSENGER heliocentric distance varied between 0.31 and 0.47 au. Methods. We used a published list of 61 SEE events measured by MESSENGER, which includes information on the near-relativistic electron peak intensities, the peak-intensity energy spectral indices, and the measured X-ray peak intensity of the flares related to the SEE events. Taking advantage of multi-viewpoint remote-sensing observations, we reconstructed, whenever possible, the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and shock waves; and we determined the three-dimensional (3D) properties (location, speed, and width) of the CMEs and the maximum speed of the 3D CME-driven shocks in the corona. We used different methods (Spearman, Pearson, and a Bayesian approach, namely the Kelly method to linear regression) to estimate the correlation coefficients between the flare intensity, maximum speed at the apex of the CME-driven shock, CME speed at the apex, and CME width with the electron peak intensities and with the energy spectral indices. In this statistical study, we considered and addressed the limitations of the particle instrument on board MESSENGER (elevated background intensity level, anti-Sun pointing). Results. There is an asymmetry to the east in the range of connection angles (CAs) for which the SEE events present the highest peak intensities, where the CA is the longitudinal separation between the footpoint of the magnetic field connecting to the spacecraft and the flare location. Based on this asymmetry, we define a subsample of well-connected events as when −65° ≤ CA ≤ +33°. For the well-connected sample, we find moderate to strong correlations between the near-relativistic electron peak intensity and the 3D CME-driven shock maximum speed at the apex (Spearman: cc = 0.53 ± 0.05; Pearson: cc = 0.65 ± 0.04; Kelly: cc = 0.87 ± 0.20), the flare peak intensity (Spearman: cc = 0.63 ± 0.03; Pearson: cc = 0.59 ± 0.03; Kelly: cc = 0.74 ± 0.30), and the 3D CME speed at the apex (Spearman: cc = 0.50 ± 0.04; Pearson: cc = 0.46 ± 0.03; Kelly: cc = 0.60 ± 0.39). When including poorly connected events (full sample), the relations between the peak intensities and the solar-activity phenomena are blurred, showing lower correlation coefficients. Conclusions. Based on the comparison of the correlation coefficients presented in this study using near 0.4 au data, (1) both flare and shock-related processes may contribute to the acceleration of near relativistic electrons in large SEE events, in agreement with previous studies based on near 1 au data; and (2) the maximum speed of the CME-driven shock is a better parameter to investigate particle-acceleration-related mechanisms than the average CME speed, as suggested by the stronger correlation with the SEE peak intensities.

Sun↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Solar Energetic Particles Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and a Bidirectional LSTM Network

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an essential source of space radiation, and are hazardous for humans in space, spacecraft, and technology in general. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method, specifically a bidirectional long short-term memory (biLSTM) network, to predict if an active region (AR) would produce an SEP event given that (i) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the flare, or (ii) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare regardless of whether or not the flare is associated with a CME. The data samples used in this study are collected from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite's X-ray flare catalogs provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information. We select M- and X-class flares with identified ARs in the catalogs for the period between 2010 and 2021, and find the associations of flares, CMEs, and SEPs in the Space Weather Database of Notifications, Knowledge, Information during the same period. Each data sample contains physical parameters collected from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Experimental results based on different performance metrics demonstrate that the proposed biLSTM network is better than related machine-learning algorithms for the two SEP prediction tasks studied here. We also discuss extensions of our approach for probabilistic forecasting and calibration with empirical evaluation

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2013

High-Energy Gamma-Ray Emission From Solar Flares: Summary of Fermi LAT Detections and Analysis of Two M-Class Flares

We present the detections of 19 solar flares detected in high-energy gamma rays (above 100 MeV) with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) during its rst four years of operation. Interestingly, all ares are associated with fairly fast Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and are not all powerful X-ray ares. We then describe the detailed temporal, spatial and spectral characteristics of the rst two long-lasting events: the 2011 March 7 are, a moderate (M3.7) impulsive are followed by slowly varying gamma-ray emission over 13 hours, and the 2011 June 7 M2.5 are, which was followed by gamma-ray emission lasting for 2 hours. We compare the Fermi-LAT data with X-ray and proton data measurements from GOES and RHESSI. We argue that a hadronic origin of the gamma rays is more likely than a leptonic origin and nd that the energy spectrum of the proton distribution softens after the 2011 March 7 are, favoring a scenario with continuous acceleration at the are site. This work suggests that proton acceleration in solar ares is more common than previously thought, occurring for even modest X-ray ares, and for longer durations.

fermi↗
NASA NTRS2004

Tutorial on Solar Energetic-Particle Events

Particles from the Sun at energies above approx. 1 MeV/nucleon have been studied in space for over 35 years. There have been major advances in instrumentation for studying elemental and isotopic composition, kinetic energy, charge states, time intensity histories, and anisotropies of energetic particles. There have also been extensive improvements in the observations of solar phenomena, including radio bursts, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and solar photons from soft X-ray to gamma-ray energies. Despite these advances, there is a lack of agreement as to the acceleration processes responsible for the particles seen in space shortly after the solar event. In particular, the relative importance of solar flares and CME-driven shocks is disputed for events of moderate to larger size. The reasons for this will be reviewed, and the prospects for resolving this issue will be evaluated.

vonRosenvinge, Tycho T.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The He-3/He-4 ratios for solar energetic particle events during the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite Mission

Helium data measured by the University of Chicago instrument, ONR-604, are employed to determine the ratio of He-3 to He-4 for solar energetic particle (SEP) events over an energy range 50-110 MeV/nucleon during the 1990/1991 Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite mission. The Sun in this period is extremely active. A total of 29 separate SEP events have been identified; among them 16 major events have been analyzed to obtain He-3/He-4 ratios, with a mass resolution of 0.10 amu. Thirteen events have a He-3/He-4 ratio larger than 0.005, one order of magnitude greater than the solar coronal value. The He-3/He-4 ratio at energies of 50-110 MeV/nucleon is independent of the size of the SEP event, for the moderately large flares analyzed here. The helium energy spectra are represented by power laws. During the 1991 June flare period, different large-particle injections associated with different solar flares, but occurring from the same active region, have a similar average spectral index and a similar He-3/He-4 ratio. The spectral index of He-4 varies from event to event, i.e., from as small as 1.5 to as large as 7.5. A correlation is found between the inferred spectral index from gamma-ray measurements and our measured spectral indices for the 1991 June 11 and June 15 events, suggesting that the high-energy SEPs may come from the same acceleration event as the particles that interact at the Sun and produce the gamma rays. The implications of these results for particle acceleration and propagation at the flare site and in the solar corona are discussed.

Chen, Jiasheng↗
NASA NTRS2006

Initiation of Solar Eruptions: Recent Observations and Implications for Theories

Solar eruptions involve the violent disruption of a system of magnetic field. Just how the field is destabilized and explodes to produce flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is still being debated in the solar community. Here I discuss recent observational work into these questions by ourselves (me and my colleagues) and others. Our work has concentrated mainly on eruptions that include filaments. We use the filament motion early in the event as a tracer of the motion of the general erupting coronal field in and around the filament, since that field itself is hard to distinguish otherwise. Our main data sources are EUV images from SOHO/EIT and TRACE, soft Xray images from Yohkoh, and magnetograms from SOHO/MDI, supplemented with coronagraph images from SOHO/LASCO, hard X-ray data, and ground-based observations. We consider the observational findings in terms of three proposed eruption-initiation mechanisms: (i) runaway internal tether-cutting reconnection, (ii) slow external tether-cutting reconnection ("breakout"), and (iii) ideal MHD instability.

Sterling, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multipoint Observations of Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Energetic Particle Events on Mars and Earth During November 2001

Multipoint spacecraft observations provide unique opportunities to constrain the propagation and evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) throughout the heliosphere. Using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data to study both ICME and solar energetic particle (SEP) events at Mars and OMNI and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data to study ICMEs and SEPs at Earth, we present a detailed study of three CMEs and flares in late November 2001. In this period, Mars trailed Earth by 56deg solar longitude so that the two planets occupied interplanetary magnetic field lines separated by only approx.25deg. We model the interplanetary propagation of CME events using the ENLIL version 2.6 3-D MHD code coupled with the Wang-Sheeley-Arge version 1.6 potential source surface model, using Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) images to determine CME input parameters. We find that multipoint observations are essential to constrain the simulations of ICME propagation, as two very different ICMEs may look very similar in only one observational location. The direction and width of the CME as parameters essential to a correct estimation of arrival time and amplitude of the ICME signal. We find that these are problematic to extract from the analysis of SOHO/LASCO images commonly used for input to ICME propagation models. We further confirm that MGS magnetometer and electron reflectometer data can be used to study not only ICME events but also SEP events at Mars, with good results providing a consistent picture of the events when combined with near-Earth data.

Falkenberg, T. V.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Solar gradual hard X-ray bursts - Observations and an interpretation

A recent study of solar gradual hard X-ray bursts is summarized. The data are interpreted in terms of a model involving the acceleration and trapping of electrons in post flare loop systems following coronal mass ejections. A controversy about the classification of the metric continuum that typically accompanies gradual hard X-ray events is addressed.

Cliver, E. W.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The Propagation of Solar Energetic Particles in Magnetic Channels

The existence of interplanetary flow systems produced by the entrainment of interplanetary transients, consisting of flare produced shocks, high speed solar wind streams and coronal mass ejection, has been established. This entrainment process produces enhanced regions of the interplanetary magnetic field that should be connected back to the solar corona. These compressed regions can provide a preferred magnetic channel for the propagation of solar cosmic rays. The characteristics of these events appear to be different from those previously reported by the NASA/University of New Hampshire team and the University of Chicago in their study of a large number of events in the region beyond 1 AU. These new events have a very flat energy spectra (with gamma = approx. 1.5) that frequently extend to energies above 100 MeV and have a significant enhancement of MeV electrons.

Mcdonald, F. B.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Solar Magnetic Explosions, Spicules, and the Heliosphere

We present an example of each of the following observed characteristics of the magnetic origins of quiet-region coronal heating, spicules, macrospicules, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). (1) In quiet regions, the luminosity of the corona is roughly proportional to the edge length of the underlying photospheric magnetic network. (2) Spicules and EUV explosive events are concentrated at the edges of the magnetic network. (3) Many macrospicules have the magnetic structure of a surge rooted around an inclusion of opposite-polarity magnetic flux. (4) CMEs and eruptive flares are driven by explosions of sheared magnetic fields rooted along polarity dividing lines (neutral lines) in the photospheric magnetic flux. These characteristics together suggest that the mainstay of the heliosphere, the corona/solar wind rooted in quiet regions and coronal holes, may be driven by myriads of tiny magnetic explosions at the network edges, explosions like those that drive CMEs but of vastly smaller scale. If so, the steady solar wind and the CMEs that disrupt it both have the same root cause: explosions of initially-closed, strongly-sheared, bipolar magnetic fields. The photospheric vector magnetograms, chromospheric filtergrams, EUV spectra, and coronal images from Solar-B are expected to have sufficient sensitivity, spatial resolution, and cadence to test this scenario for coronal heating in quiet regions and coronal holes. This work was supported by NASA/OSS through its Solar and Heliospheric Physics SR and T Program and Sun-Earth Connection GI Program.

Moore, Ronald L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Spatial Relationship of Signatures of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are characterized by a number of signatures. In particular, we examine the relationship between Fe charge states and other signatures during ICMEs in solar cycle 23. Though enhanced Fe charge states characterize many ICMEs, average charge states vary from event to event, are more likely to be enhanced in faster or flare-related ICMEs, and do not appear to depend on whether the ICME is a magnetic cloud.

Richardson, I. G.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Relationship of EUV Irradiance Coronal Dimming Slope and Depth to Coronal Mass Ejection Speed and Mass

Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) coronal dimmings are often observed in response to solar eruptive events. These phenomena can be generated via several different physical processes. For space weather, the most important of these is the temporary void left behind by a coronal mass ejection (CME). Massive, fast CMEs tend to leave behind a darker void that also usually corresponds to minimum irradiance for the cooler coronal emissions. If the dimming is associated with a solar are, as is often the case, the are component of the irradiance light curve in the cooler coronal emission can be isolated and removed using simultaneous measurements of warmer coronal lines. We apply this technique to 37dimming events identified during two separate two-week periods in 2011, plus an event on 2010 August 7 analyzed in a previous paper, to parameterize dimming in terms of depth and slope. We provide statistics on which combination of wavelengths worked best for the flare-removal method, describe the fitting methods applied to the dimming light curves, and compare the dimming parameters with corresponding CME parameters of mass and speed. The best linear relationships found are nu(sub CME) [km/s] approx. equals 2.36 x 10 6 [km/%] x s(sub dim) [%/s] m(sub CME) [g] approx. equals 2.59 x 10(exp.15 [g/%] x the square root of d(sub dim) [%].These relationships could be used for space weather operations of estimating CME mass and speed using near-real-time irradiance dimming measurements.

Mason, James Paul↗
NASA NTRS1997

The solar minimum X2.6/1B flare and CME of 9 July 1996: Solar data - Pt. 1

The solar observations from GOES-8, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and the Yohkoh satellite concerning the events of the X-class flare are discussed. The Michelson Doppler imager (MDI) magnetometer shows a new region of magnetic activity in AR 7978. The rapid development and evolution of this region is shown by the MDI and the extreme-ultraviolet Doppler telescope (EDT) data. The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed using coronagraphs are presented. The possible association between the CME and the X-flare is considered.

Andrews, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Solar Radio Bursts and Space Weather

Radio bursts from the Sun are produced by electron accelerated to relativistic energies by physical processes on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The radio bursts are thus good indicators of solar eruptions. Three types of nonthermal radio bursts are generally associated with CMEs. Type III bursts due to accelerated electrons propagating along open magnetic field lines. The electrons are thought to be accelerated at the reconnection region beneath the erupting CME, although there is another view that the electrons may be accelerated at the CME-driven shock. Type II bursts are due to electrons accelerated at the shock front. Type II bursts are also excellent indicators of solar energetic particle (SEP) events because the same shock is supposed accelerate electrons and ions. There is a hierarchical relationship between the wavelength range of type /I bursts and the CME kinetic energy. Finally, Type IV bursts are due to electrons trapped in moving or stationary structures. The low frequency stationary type IV bursts are observed occasionally in association with very fast CMEs. These bursts originate from flare loops behind the erupting CME and hence indicate tall loops. This paper presents a summary of radio bursts and their relation to CMEs and how they can be useful for space weather predictions.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk,↗
NASA NTRS1977

Comments regarding energy release and transfer in solar flares

Skylab observations of the high-temperature coronal plasma are used in characterizing energy released in the corona during flare-like events. The loop structure of the soft X-ray flare features is reviewed; short-term exposures of several soft X-ray images are employed in suggesting that energy, and possibly material as well, is added to the apex of loop systems during flare events. An accompanying restriction in the flow of mass and energy from the loop apex is also hypothesized to account for the recorded observations. Further investigations of the confining ability of the magnetic fields that contain the X-ray emitting plasma are proposed.

Vorpahl, J. A.↗