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At least 127 records · Page 7

(abstract) Using GPS Measurements to Identify Global Ionospheric Storms in Near Real-Time

The solar wind interacts with the Earth's magnetosphere, eventually dissipating energy into the ionosphere and atmosphere. As a terminator, the ionosphere responds to magnetic storms, which is very important in understanding the energy coupling process between the Sun and the Earth and in forecasting space weather changes.The worldwide GPS network, for the first time, makes near real-time global ionospheric TEC measurements a possibility. Based on these measurements, global ionospheric TEC maps are generated with time resolution of from 5 minutes to hours. Using these maps, we can analyze the global evolution of ionospheric storms on temporal and spatial scales, which have been dificult to study before. We find that for certain types of storms (such as TID-driven), it is possible to identify them near onset and issue warning signals during the early stages. Main attention has been paid on northern hemispheric winter storms. Their common features and physical mechanisms are being investigated.

solar wind magnetospheres GPS ionosphere atmospher↗

Space Weather Status for Exploration Radiation Protection

Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during an exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and in free space, for example, may differ by orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for the ability to conduct exploration operations. We present a current status of developing operational concepts for manned exploration and expectations for asset viability and available predictive and characterization toolsets.

Fry, Dan J.↗

Space Weather in the Popular Media, and the Opportunities the Upcoming Solar Maximum Brings

The media interest/coverage of space weather has been increasing as we approach solar maximum and the private space industry has grown significantly since the last significant solar maximum in 2000–2002. It is not uncommon for space weather media coverage to use hyperbole with frequent references to the infamous “Carrington event.” The implications of associating each of the many upcoming moderate-to-severe storms with the Carrington event are discussed, and we encourage the curbing of hyperbole whenever possible. While there is an excellent but small cohort of space weather researchers actively engaging with the media, we urge more (particularly early-to-mid career) to take advantage of media training resources and to join in. We also call for these efforts to be broadly supported by peers and institutions for the benefit of space weather as a discipline.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Space Radiation Protection, Space Weather, and Exploration

Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight -- and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during an exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and on the surface of the Moon may differ by multiple orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for our ability to conduct exploration operations. With these differences in risk to crew, vehicle and mission in mind, we present the status of the efforts currently underway as the required development to enable exploration operations. The changes in the operating environment as crewed operations begin to stretch away from the Earth are changing the way we think about the lines between "research" and "operations". The real, practical work to enable a permanent human presence away from Earth has already begun.

Zapp, Neal↗

Space Radiation Protection, Space Weather, and Exploration

Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during a deep space exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and on the surface of the Moon may differ by multiple orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for our ability to conduct exploration operations. With these differences in risk to crew, vehicle and mission in mind, we present the status of the efforts currently underway as the required development to enable exploration operations. The changes in the operating environment as crewed operations begin to stretch away from the Earth are changing the way we think about the lines between research and operations . The real, practical work to enable a permanent human presence away from Earth has already begun

Zapp, Neal↗

Predicting Global Ground Geoelectric Field With Coupled Geospace and Three-Dimensional Geomagnetic Induction Models

We forecast the global effects of space weather on the geoelectric and geomagnetic fields using a novel combination of methods. We use a realistic three-dimensional (3-D) model of Earth's electrical conductivity and a realistic representation of magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems. Our scheme involves the following steps: (1) We run a global magnetohydrodynamic model of the magnetosphere coupled to an electrostatic model of the ionosphere. (2) We calculate a global time series of the ground magnetic field resulting from the ionospheric, field-aligned, and magnetospheric currents of the global magnetohydrodynamic model. (3) We approximate this external field by an equivalent source current flowing in a thin shell above Earth. (4) We calculate a global time series of geoelectric and geomagnetic fields from the equivalent current and a 3-D conductivity model of Earth that also takes into account the coast effect due to large horizontal conductivity gradient. We verify our implementation by comparing the results against known analytic and numeric solutions, and then apply our scheme to the geomagnetic storm of 14 and 15 December 2006. In particular, we show that accounting for 3-D structure of Earth's conductivity results in significantly enhanced geoelectric field at large lateral gradients of conductivity, especially in coastal regions, both at middle and high latitudes. In the studied geomagnetic storm the largest values of 3-D geoelectric field are detected at high latitudes reaching 2.5 volts per kilometer and the 3-D effect extends inland by a few hundred kilometers.

Honkonen, I.↗

Decoding the energy inputs that drive the upper atmosphere with NASA’s Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC)

NASA’s Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC) mission will study the effect of space weather phenomena on Earth’s upper atmosphere ion and neutral gases and, in turn, their impact on human assets. GDC will provide multi-point observations to determine how the Earth’s upper atmosphere is driven to dynamic changes and extremes by the solar wind. Magnetospheric energy input, both kinetic and electromagnetic, will be captured by the Comprehensive Auroral Precipitation Experiment (CAPE), the Thermal Plasma Sensor (TPS), and the Near Earth Magnetometer Instrument in a Small Integrated System (NEMISIS). CAPE captures the complete kinetic energy inputs with observations of the precipitating and upgoing electrons and precipitating ions. TPS captures part of the electromagnetic energy inputs with observations of the thermal plasma velocity that map E-field inputs, and NEMISIS captures the other part of the electromagnetic energy input with measurements of magnetic field variations due to field aligned currents. We use similar observations from the Defense Meteorological Space Platform (DMSP) satellites to demonstrate the balance between the different energy inputs (electron and ion Joule heating and Poynting flux) during the different phases of storms. We explore the local time and spatial structure and the impact they have on atmospheric density and winds with simulations of the Global Ionosphere and Thermosphere Model (GITM) and demonstrate how GDC will enable us to reconstruct those energy inputs locally and regionally

Eftyhia Zesta↗

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Extreme events↗

Lunar Solar Origins Exploration (LunaSOX)

The Moon offers a unique vantage point from which to investigate the Sun and its interaction via the solar wind magnetic fields, plasma, and energetic particles with the geospace system including the Moon itself. The lunar surface and exosphere provide in part a record of solar coronal plasma material input and resultant space weathering over billions of years. The structure and dynamics of solar wind interactions with the Moon provide an accessible near-Earth laboratory environment for study of general solar wind interactions with the vast multitude of airless asteroidal bodies of the inner solar system. Spacecraft in lunar orbit have the often simultaneous opportunity, except when in the Earth's magnetosphere, to make in-situ compositional measurements of the solar wind plasma and to carry out remote observations from the Moon of the solar corona, potentially enabled by lunar limb occultation of the solar disk. The LunaSOX project at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is addressing these heliophysical science objectives from and of the Moon with support from NASA's Lunar Advanced Science and Exploration Research (LASER) program: (1) specify history of solar wind parameters at and sunward of the Moon through enhanced access (http://lunasox.gsfc.nasa.gov/) to legacy and operational mission data products from the Apollo era to the present, (2) model field and plasma interactions with the lunar surface, exosphere, and wake, as constrained by the available data, through hybrid kinetic code simulations, and (3) advance mission concepts for heliophysics from and of the Moon.

Cooper, John F.↗

Meso-Scale Electrodynamic Coupling of the Earth Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System

Within the fully integrated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, many electrodynamic processes interact with each other. We review recent advances in understanding three major meso-scale coupling processes within the system: the transient field-aligned currents (FACs), mid-latitude plasma convection, and auroral particle precipitation. (1) Transient FACs arise due to disturbances from either dayside or nightside magnetosphere. As the interplanetary shocks suddenly compress the dayside magnetosphere, short-lived FACs are induced at high latitudes with their polarity successively changing. Magnetotail dynamics, such as substorm injections, can also disturb the current structures, leading to the formation of substorm current wedges and ring current disruption. (2) The mid-latitude plasma convection is closely associated with electric fields in the system. Recent studies have unraveled some important features and mechanisms of subauroral fast flows. (3) Charged particles, while drifting around the Earth, often experience precipitating loss down to the upper atmosphere, enhancing the auroral conductivity. Recent studies have been devoted to developing more self-consistent geospace circulation models by including a better representation of the auroral conductance. It is expected that including these new advances in geospace circulation models could promisingly strengthen their forecasting capability in space weather applications. The remaining challenges especially in the global modeling of the circulation system are also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document For PreMevE 2.0 Model

Man-made satellites operating in medium- and high-altitude Earth orbits are continuously exposed to hazardous space radiation originated from different sources. Among them, one major contributor is the relativistic electron population—with kinetic energies comparable to or larger than their rest energy of 0.511 Megaelectron-volt (MeV)—trapped inside Earth’s outer Van Allen belt. Owing to their high penetration capability, these MeV electrons are difficult to be fully stopped by normal shielding. Particularly, during MeV electron events when electron intensities across the outer belt are greatly elevated to sustaining high levels—up to 10 3 - 10 4 times as observed in the geosynchronous (GEO) orbit and low-Earth-orbits (LEOs), space-borne electronic systems with inadequate hardening are susceptible to deep-dielectric charging and discharging phenomenon caused by those electrons, and thus may suffer severe damages or even stop functioning. Therefore, protecting critical space infrastructures from harsh space weather conditions– including MeV electron events – has high priority for many space sectors, such as the aerospace industry, service providers and government agencies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Auroral Kilometric Radiation Integrated Power Flux as a Proxy for A E

We propose to use the integrated intensity of auroral kilometric radiation from Polar measurements as a proxy for the auroral electrojet index A(sub E) in support of studies of the response of the magnetosphere and the geomagnetic tail to changes in magnetic activity. In addition to providing event timing information to understand the effects of perturbations and substorms, the resulting space-based auroral kilometric radiation index would be useful as an input to space weather efforts as an auroral activity metric.

Kurth, W. S.↗

Solar Sources of Severe Space Weather

Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and severe geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasma arriving at Earth. Intense particle radiation is almost always caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) traveling from the Sun at super-Alfvenic speeds leading to fast-mode MHD shocks and particle acceleration by the shocks. When a CME arrives at Earth, it can interact with Earth's magnetopause resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon arrival of the CME at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Occasionally, intense geomagnetic storms are caused by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) that form in the interplanetary space when the fast solar wind from coronal holes overtakes the slow wind from the quiet regions. CIRs also accelerate particles, but when they reach several AU from the Sun, so their impact on Earth's space environment is not significant. In addition to these plasma effects, solar flares that accompany CMEs also produce excess ionization in the ionosphere causing sudden ionospheric disturbances. This paper highlights these space weather effects using space weather events observed by space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.

Gopalswamy, N.↗

Comparing Magnetopause Predictions From Two MHD Models During A Geomagnetic Storm and A Quiet Period

Magnetopause location is an important prediction of numerical simulations of the magnetosphere, yet the models can err, either under-predicting or over-predicting the motion of the boundary. This study compares results from two of the most widely used magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models, the Lyon–Fedder–Mobarry (LFM) model and the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), to data from the GOES 13 and 15 satellites during the geomagnetic storm on 22 June 2015, and to THEMIS A, D, and E during a quiet period on 31 January 2013. The models not only reproduce the magnetopause crossings of the spacecraft during the storm, but they also predict spurious magnetopause motion after the crossings seen in the GOES data. We investigate the possible causes of the over-predictions during the storm and find the following. First, using different ionospheric conductance models does not significantly alter predictions of the magnetopause location. Second, coupling the Rice Convection Model (RCM) to the MHD codes improves the SWMF magnetopause predictions more than it does for the LFM predictions. Third, the SWMF produces a stronger ring current than LFM, both with and without the RCM and regardless of the LFM spatial resolution. During the non-storm event, LFM predicts the THEMIS magnetopause crossings due to the southward interplanetary magnetic field better than the SWMF. Additionally, increasing the LFM spatial grid resolution improves the THEMIS predictions, while increasing the SWMF grid resolutions does not.

magnetohydrodynamics↗

Data-Driven Specification of Earth's Magnetic Field

As our society is increasingly dependent on technologies in space, predicting space weather becomes ever more important. We have come to rely on technologies such as cellphones, GPS, the Internet, and other commercial and military assets. In order to protect these systems a high priority is to develop better understanding of the harmful conditions of space weather encountered in the near-Earth radiation environment which are mostly dictated by the dynamics of energetic charged particles. The main objective of our proposal was to improve the specification and forecast of the particle distribution in the Earth’s inner magnetosphere using data assimilation together with machine learning (ML) algorithms in our ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic and electric fields (RAM-SCBE). Specifically, we explored the application of machine learning algorithms to emulate and improve, through infusion of observational data, the magnetic field (SCBE) of our ring current model. Our work advanced towards the characterization of the RAM-SCBE particle flux field and its potentially different simulation scenarios. We explored how the model behaves in a number of simulation scenarios in order to better understand how the model reacts to perturbations in the solar wind. We were able to capture this behavior through the simulation of an ensemble of RAM-SCB model solutions. The ensemble showed the important correlations between the particle fluxes and the magnetic field. We were able to start the training of a neural network (Autoencoder) to identify the dominant features of the magnetic field, and the main correlations (linear and non-linear) between the particle fluxes and the magnetic field. Our next steps consists of training a neural network to capture the time evolution of the dominant features and obtain a consistent surrogate model for the RAM-SCB.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The LWS Geospace Storm Investigations Exploring the Extremes of Space Weather

The Geospace mission of the Living With a Star program is a family of investigations focusing on the compelling science questions that advance our ability to specify, understand, and predict the societal impact of solar variance. Two key areas have been identified as combining both importance to society and potential for scientific progress: 1) characterization and understanding of the acceleration, global distribution, and variability of energetic electrons and ions in the inner magnetosphere, and 2) characterization and understanding of the ionosphere and irregularities that affect communications, navigation and radar systems. Under these broad categories specific science questions have emerged as the priority science objectives for the first Geospace Investigations: How and why do relativistic electrons in the outer zone and slot region vary during geomagnetic storms? How does the long- and short-term variability of the Sun affect the global-scale behavior of the ionospheric electron density and irregularities, especially during magnetic storms and at mid-latitudes? The first Geospace mission will attempt to answer these questions.

Source record↗

Compositional Impact of Io Volcanic Emissions on Jupiter's Magnetosphere and the Icy Galilean Moons

The magnetospheric ion population of Jupiter is dominated by the 1000 kg/s of iogenic material constantly ejected by IO volcanism as neutral gas (approx. 1 kg/s goes out as high speed dust grains), subsequent atmospheric losses to the IO torus, and radial transport of torus ions throughout the magnetosphere. As that magnetosphere is greatly distended in radial size by the iogenic plasma loading, so are surfaces of the other Galilean moons also significantly, and perhaps even dominantly, affected by iogenic plasma bombardment, e.g. at the level up to 0.2 kg/s heavy ions (mostly O and S) onto Europa as per local plasma ion measurements. In comparison, cometary impacts onto IO deliver about 0.02 kg/s of impact ejecta to Europa via ballistic transfer through the Jupiter system. The magnetosphere of this system operates as a powerful engine to produce and transport ions from the IO source to the surfaces of these other moons, and any future orbiter missions to these moons must account for surface distributions of the iogenic material and its chemical effects before real assessments can be made of sensible chemical materials otherwise arising from primordial formation and subsequent evolution of these moons. This is a fundamental problem of space weathering that must be addressed for all planetary bodies with thin atmospheres and direct surface exposure to their space plasma environments. Long-standing debates from Galileo Orbiter measurements about the origins of hydrate sulfates at Europa present examples of this problem, as to whether the sulfates arise from oceanic minerals or from iogenic sulfur chemistry. Any orbiter or landed mission to Europa for astrobiological investigations would further need to separate the potential chemical biosignatures of life or its precursors from the highly abundant background of iogenic material. Although no single ion carries a tag identifying it as of iogenic or other origin, the elemental abundance distributions of ions to be measured throughout the jovian magnetosphere and in the local moon environments can act as tracers if we know from direct measurements and models the distributions at the mostly likely sources, i.e. at IO. However, our knowledge of these abundances are very limited from earlier in-situ and remote measurements, mainly confined to major (S, O) and some minor (Na, K, Cl) species with abundances at or above a few percent relative to O. Future in-situ plasma measurements by the planned Jupiter Europa Orbiter and Jupiter Ganymede Orbiter missions should extend the abundance coverage to minor and even trace elemental species. For Europa astrobiological investigations it is also important to specify iogenic inputs and surface processing of isotopic species. We discuss the range of abundance distributions arising from models for IO hot volcanic emissions, and from the subsequent dynamics of ion injection, magnetospheric transport, and icy moon surface bombardment.

Cooper, John↗