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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Spatiotemporal Variability of Evapotranspiration and Its Governing Factors in a Mountainous Watershed at the East River, Colorado, Water: Dataset

This data package contains simulation results of daily evapotranspiration for 17 locations of meteorological stations with different precipitation, air temperature and vegetation within the East River Watershed, Colorado (CLMResult.csv). Daily precipitation data is included for reference. These are the main results of the paper Tran, 2019. Meteorological stations names, latitude and longitude coordinates of meteorological stations, types of lands from the National Land Cover Database, and a comparison with the community land model (CLM) data are also included (Met_LC.csv). The purpose of this data is to analyze the spatio-temporal variations of evapotranspiration at the East River Watershed and understand the factors that control these variations. More information regarding the study, methods, and findings can be found in the Related Reference paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporal Variability of Electric System Reliability Metrics

As urbanization continues to grow, urban density also rises, placing significant stress on critical infrastructure. Cities often face challenges in investing in new infrastructure or upgrading existing ones. One area of infrastructure that has come under strain is the electric grid, leading to prolonged power outages. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average duration of power outages has steadily doubled from 2013 to 2021, primarily due to extreme weather events. The IEEE has developed a series of reliability metrics to assess the reliability of the electric system. However, these metrics are only applied at the utility level, making it challenging to comprehend the variations in these indices at finer spatial resolutions and, consequently, evaluate reliability at the non-utility level. In this study, we leveraged electric outage data collected at 15-minute intervals at the county level to estimate electric system reliability over a six-year period using a novel data analysis approach. Our findings reveal a gradual decline in reliability in the U.S. Southwest compared to national averages. Furthermore, the duration of outages per customer per event has significantly decreased in large portions of California and Florida. These discoveries can be valuable for utility companies as they seek to pinpoint regional anomalies and plan for prioritized remediation efforts.

Singh, Nagendra↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigation of flow regimes in arc plasma–gas interactions using a two-temperature arc in crossflow model

The perpendicular impingement of a gas stream on an electric arc, a configuration known as the arc in crossflow, is of primary relevance in the study of plasma-gas interactions, as well as in industrial applications such as circuit breakers and wire-arc spraying. The flow dynamics in the arc in crossflow are the result of coupled fluid-thermal-electromagnetic phenomena accompanied by large property gradients, which can produce significant deviations from Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE) among electrons and gas species. These characteristics can lead to the establishment of distinct flow regimes depending on the relative values of the controlling parameters of the system, such as inflow velocity, arc current, and inter-electrode spacing. A two-temperature non-LTE (NLTE) model is used to investigate the arc dynamics and the establishment of flow regimes in the arc in crossflow. The plasma flow model is implemented within a nonlinear Variational Multiscale (VMS) numerical discretization approach that is less dissipative, and hence better suited to capture unstable behavior, than traditional VMS methods commonly used in computational fluid dynamics simulations. The Reynolds and the Enthalpy dimensionless numbers, characterizing the relative flow strength and arc strength, respectively, are chosen as the controlling parameters of the system. Simulation results reveal the onset of dynamic behavior and the establishment of steady, periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic or potentially turbulent, regimes, as identified by distinct spatiotemporal fluctuations. The computational findings reveal the role of increasing the relative arc strength on enhancing flow stability by delaying the growth of fluctuating and unstable flow behavior.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Effects Masked the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Demand in the United States

Shelter-in-place orders and business closures related to COVID-19 changed the hourly profile of electricity demand and created an unprecedented source of uncertainty for the grid. The potential for continued shifts in electricity profiles has implications for electricity sector investment and operating decisions that maintain reserve margins and provide grid reliability. This study reveals that understanding this uncertainty requires an understanding of the underlying drivers at the customer-class scale. This paper utilizes three datasets to compare the impacts of COVID-19 on electricity consumption across a range of spatiotemporal and customer scales. At the utility/customer-class scale, COVID-19-induced shutdowns in the spring of 2020 shifted weekday residential load profiles to resemble weekend profiles from previous years. Total commercial loads declined, but the commercial diurnal load profile was unchanged. With only total loads available at the balancing authority scale, the apparent impact of COVID-19 was smaller during the summer due in part to phased re-opening and spatial variability in re-opening, but there were still clear variations once total loads were broken down zonally. Monthly data at the state scale showed an increase in state-level residential electricity sales, a decrease in commercial sales, and a small net decrease in total sales in most states from April-August 2020. Analyses that focus on total load or a single scale may miss important changes that become apparent when the load is broken down regionally or by customer class.

COVID-19, electricity demand, multiscale, Commonwe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing an Optimal Sensor Network via Minimizing Information Loss

Optimal experimental design is a classic topic in statistics, with many well-studied problems, applications, and solutions. The design problem we study is the placement of sensors to monitor spatiotemporal processes, explicitly accounting for the temporal dimension in our modeling and optimization. We observe that recent advancements in computational sciences often yield large datasets based on physics-based simulations, which are rarely leveraged in experimental design. We introduce a novel model-based sensor placement criterion, along with a highly-efficient optimization algorithm, which integrates physics-based simulations and Bayesian experimental design principles to identify sensor networks that “minimize information loss” from simulated data. Our technique relies on sparse variational inference and (separable) Gauss-Markov priors, and thus may adapt many techniques from Bayesian experimental design. We validate our method through a case study monitoring air temperature in Phoenix, Arizona, using state-of-the-art physics-based simulations. Our results show our framework to be superior to random or quasi-random sampling, particularly with a limited number of sensors. We conclude by discussing practical considerations and implications of our framework, including more complex modeling tools and real-world deployments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large spatiotemporal variability in aerosol properties over central Argentina during the CACTI field campaign

Abstract. Few field campaigns with extensive aerosol measurements have been conducted over continental areas in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this data gap and better understand the interactions of convective clouds and the surrounding environment, extensive in situ and remote sensing measurements were collected during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign conducted between October 2018 and April 2019 over the Sierras de Córdoba range of central Argentina. This study describes measurements of aerosol number, size, composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) collected on the ground and from a research aircraft during 7 weeks of the campaign. Large spatial and multiday variations in aerosol number, size, composition, and CCN were observed due to transport from upwind sources controlled by mesoscale to synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. Large vertical wind shears, back trajectories, single-particle measurements, and chemical transport model predictions indicate that different types of emissions and source regions, including biogenic emissions and biomass burning from the Amazon and anthropogenic emissions from Chile and eastern Argentina, contribute to aerosols observed during CACTI. Repeated aircraft measurements near the boundary layer top reveal strong spatial and temporal variations in CCN and demonstrate that understanding the complex co-variability of aerosol properties and clouds is critical to quantify the impact of aerosol–cloud interactions. In addition to quantifying aerosol properties in this data-sparse region, these measurements will be valuable to evaluate predictions over the midlatitudes of South America and improve parameterized aerosol processes in local, regional, and global models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Root system architecture in cereals: progress, challenges and perspective

We report roots are essential multifunctional plant organs involved in water and nutrient uptake, metabolite storage, anchorage, mechanical support, and interaction with the soil environment. Understanding of this ‘hidden half’ provides potential for manipulation of root system architecture (RSA) traits to optimize resource use efficiency and grain yield in cereal crops. Unfortunately, root traits are highly neglected in breeding due to the challenges of phenotyping, but could have large rewards if the variability in RSA traits can be fully exploited. Until now, a plethora of genes have been characterized in detail for their potential role in improving RSA. The use of forward genetics approaches to find sequence variations in genes underpinning desirable RSA would be highly beneficial. Advances in computer vision applications have allowed image-based approaches for high-throughput phenotyping of RSA traits that can be used by any laboratory worldwide to make progress in understanding root function and dissection of the genetics. At the same time, the frontiers of root measurement include non-invasive methods like X-ray computer tomography and magnetic resonance imaging that facilitate new types of temporal studies. Root physiology and ecology are further supported by spatiotemporal root simulation modeling. The discovery of component traits providing improved resilience and yield advantage in target environments is a key necessity for mainstreaming root-based cereal breeding. The integrated use of pan-genome resources, now available in most cereals, coupled with new in-field phenotyping platforms has the potential for precise selection of superior genotypes with improved RSA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observation and Simulation of Methane Plumes During the Morning Boundary Layer Transition

Abstract Methane (CH 4 ) contributes significantly to global warming. However, accurate identification of CH 4 sources for reducing CH 4 emissions is often hampered by inadequate accuracy and spatiotemporal coverage of CH 4 detection, and lack of accurate CH 4 forward modeling used in top‐down inversion systems. In this study, a field experiment was conducted in Pampa, Texas using two CH 4 sensors (LI‐COR and OGI camera) to detect CH 4 releases. We investigated whether high‐resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with greenhouse gases (WRF‐GHG) could accurately simulate the CH 4 plumes in the presence of evolving atmospheric boundary layer from sunrise to noon. CH 4 plumes showed substantial variation in time. At a release rate of ∼17.5 kg hr −1 , the maximum enhancement of CH 4 measured by LI‐COR was 2.6 ppm at sunrise (7:36 a.m.), 250 m from the release location. Within half an hour after sunrise, this enhancement decreased to 0.3–0.4 ppm. The enhancement was 0.2 ppm by 10:00 a.m. and further dropped to less than 0.1 ppm after 11:30 a.m. Due to the low temperature at sunrise, the OGI camera failed to detect the CH 4 plume. The WRF‐GHG large‐eddy simulation (LES) with 32 m grid spacing successfully reproduced these CH 4 enhancements. In situ measurements together with numerical simulations illustrate the impact of the transition from a stable boundary layer in the early morning to a convective boundary layer at noon on the dispersion of CH 4 plumes. Additionally, CH 4 plumes from a cattle farm in Oklahoma are briefly examined using the same modeling approach.

Hu, Xiao‐Ming [Center for Analysis and Prediction ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Relative Abundance of Soil Nutrient‐Degrading Enzyme‐Encoding Genes Across Continental US Ecoregions

Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns in the relative abundance of soil extracellular enzyme‐encoding genes is critical for predicting microbial responses to environmental change and their potential role in nutrient cycling. Yet, integrating novel metagenomic observations with spatiotemporal environmental gradients to infer regional patterns and future trajectories has remained unclear. To address this gap, we applied a machine learning (ML) approach, integrating soil metagenomic data with environmental variables—soil properties, topography, vegetation, and climate—to predict the relative abundance of enzyme‐encoding genes for soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) across surface soils of the continental United States. We assessed potential responses under future emission scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) by comparing a baseline (1985–2014) to a future period (2071–2100). The ML model explained 57%–63% of baseline variation. Precipitation was identified as the most influential factor for the relative abundance of C‐ and N‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes, while slope length, representing horizontal distance that water can travel downslope, was the primary driver for P‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes abundance. Projections revealed spatially heterogeneous shifts across continental US ecoregions: the relative abundance of C‐ and N‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes decreased in wetter ecoregions and increased in drier ecoregions under future climate, while P‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes abundance decreased significantly in semiarid and Mediterranean ecoregions. This study demonstrates the utility of metagenomic data for mapping soil genetic potential and predicting its regional response to environmental change, to inform ecosystem management strategies.

extracellular enzyme-encoding genes↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geophysical methods reveal the soil architecture and subsurface stratigraphic heterogeneities across land-lake interfaces along Lake Erie

Abstract Purpose The land-lake interface is a unique zone where terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems meet, forming part of the Earth’s most geochemically and biologically active zones. The unique characteristics of this interface are yet to be properly understood due to the inherently high spatiotemporal variability of subsurface properties, which are difficult to capture with the traditional soil sampling methods. Geophysical methods offer non-invasive techniques to capture variabilities in soil properties at a high resolution across various spatiotemporal scales. Methods We combined electromagnetic induction (EMI), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and ground penetrating radar (GPR) with data from soil cores and in situ sensors to investigate hydrostratigraphic heterogeneities across land-lake interfaces along the western basin of Lake Erie. Results EMI revealed high spatial heterogeneities in ECa distribution across the land-lake interfaces, with higher values in the wetland and transition zones compared to the upland zone. Soil ECa maps matched soil maps from a public database with the hydric soil units delineated as high conductivity zones (ECa > 40 mS/m). ERT and GPR showed vertical variation in soil properties with clear stratigraphic boundaries, and correlation of ERT profiles with lithologs from piezometers revealed the stratigraphic units of silt–clay and till sequence down to 3.5 m depth which are consistent with the surficial geology of the study area. Conclusions These results validate the use of multiple geophysical methods for extrapolating soil properties and mapping stratigraphic structures at land-lake interfaces, thereby providing the missing information required to improve the earth system model (ESM) of coastal interfaces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

High nitrate variability on an Alaskan permafrost hillslope dominated by alder shrubs

Abstract. In Arctic ecosystems, increasing temperatures are driving the expansion of nitrogen (N) fixing shrubs across tundra landscapes. The implications of this expansion to the biogeochemistry of Arctic ecosystems are of critical importance and more work is needed to better understand the form, availability, and transportation potential of N from these shrubs across a variety of Arctic landscapes. To gain insights into the processes controlling N within a permafrost hillslope system, the spatiotemporal variability of nitrate (NO3-) and its environmental controls were investigated at an alder (Alnus viridis spp. fruticosa) dominated permafrost tundra landscape in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, USA. Soil pore water was collected from locations within alder shrubland growing along a well-drained hillslope and was compared to soil pore water collected from locations outside (upslope, downslope, and between) the alder shrubland. Soil pore water collected within alder shrubland had an average NO3-N (nitrogen from nitrate) concentration of 4.27±8.02 mg L−1 and differed significantly from locations outside alder shrubland (0.23±0.83 mg L−1; p<0.05). Temporal variation in NO3-N within and downslope of alder shrubland co-occurred with precipitation events where NO3- that accumulated in the soil was likely flushed downslope during rainfall. These findings have important implications for nutrient availability and mobility in N-limited permafrost systems that are experiencing shrub expansion in response to a warming Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fracture-matrix fluid exchange in oil-bearing unconventional mudstones

The poromechanical properties of unconventional reservoir materials are in large part dictated by their mineralogy. Since these properties govern the response to stress experienced during hydraulic fracturing, fluid production, and fluid injection, they play a central role in the formation of microcracks or bedding delaminations which ultimately dominate mass transport. In this work we study access to the porosity of end member unconventional reservoir materials, where the end members are predominantly dictated by carbonate content. Access to the porosity is quantified using state of the art 3D x-ray computed tomography coupled with physics informed data analytics. Xenon gas, which attenuates x-rays, provides a spatiotemporal map of access to the porosity. The accessible porosity is quantified over a range of net confining stress relevant to the manmade disturbances listed above. These experiments demonstrate that heavily carbonated mudstones are nearly impermeable at the core (~ cm) scale, while carbonate free analogues afford better access to the microstructure. Consistent with previous qualitative 2D radiographs, access to the interior of the clastic mudstones is first observed along planar microcracks, followed by slow penetration into the surrounding matrix. Physics informed data analytics of the 3D tomography measurements presented here show that these microcracks do not permit uniform access to the adjacent rock matrix. In addition, variation of the effective pressure elucidates the mechanisms that govern fracture/matrix fluid exchange. Under conditions consistent with hydrocarbon production fluid accumulates in the immediate vicinity of the nearest microcrack. While there is clear evidence that, as intended, part of this accumulation is from the more distant matrix, fluid is also squeezed out of the microcrack. The fluid build-up at the microcrack indicates that migration out of the rock is hindered by the coupled poroelastic response of the microcrack and adjacent rock matrix. We show that these mechanisms ultimately account for the meager oil recovery factors realized in practice. These insights have implications for making reservoir scale predictions based on core scale observations, and provide a basis for devising new asset development techniques to access more porosity, and enhance fluid extraction. Finally, these findings shed light on key features and mechanisms that govern shale storage capacity, with relevance to other important industrial processes, such as geologic CO 2 storage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using metacommunity ecology to understand environmental metabolomes

Abstract Environmental metabolomes are fundamentally coupled to microbially-linked biogeochemical processes within ecosystems. However, significant gaps exist in our understanding of their spatiotemporal organization, limiting our ability to uncover transferrable principles and predict ecosystem function. We propose that a theoretical paradigm, which integrates concepts from metacommunity ecology, is necessary to reveal underlying mechanisms governing metabolomes. We call this synthesis between ecology and metabolomics ‘meta-metabolome ecology’ and demonstrate its utility using a mass spectrometry dataset. We developed three relational metabolite dendrograms using molecular properties and putative biochemical transformations and performed ecological null modeling. Based upon null modeling results, we show that stochastic processes drove molecular properties while biochemical transformations were structured deterministically. We further suggest that potentially biochemically active metabolites were more deterministically assembled than less active metabolites. Understanding variation in the influences of stochasticity and determinism provides a way to focus attention on which meta-metabolomes and which parts of meta-metabolomes are most likely to be important to consider in mechanistic models. We propose that this paradigm will allow researchers to study the connections between ecological systems and their molecular processes in previously inaccessible detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Single-shot spatiotemporal plasma density measurements with a chirped probe pulse

In this work, we present the development and demonstration of a diagnostic for the measurement of the spatial and temporal evolution of plasma density in a single shot. Single-shot Advanced Plasma Probe HolographIc REconstruction (SAPPHIRE) utilizes a chirped probe pulse, a diffractive optical element, a self-referenced interferometer, and an interference bandpass filter to achieve high-fidelity electron density measurements suitable for underdense plasmas that exhibit cylindrical symmetry. The method overcomes limitations in conventional diagnostics, such as reliance on shot-to-shot reproducibility, while capturing plasma dynamics on picosecond timescales with micron-level spatial resolution. The capabilities of SAPPHIRE are demonstrated through measurements of laser-driven plasma channels in helium–nitrogen gas jets. SAPPHIRE demonstrates the formation and expansion of plasma channels in a single shot and the propagation of supersonic ionization fronts while revealing shot-to-shot variations in the plasma profiles. Experimental results are validated against theoretical models and scaling laws, underscoring the robustness and accuracy of this technique. By enabling ultrafast, high-resolution plasma diagnostics in a single exposure, SAPPHIRE represents a transformative advancement in plasma measurement technology.

Grace, Elizabeth S. [Lawrence Livermore National L↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chemical pumps and flexible sheets spontaneously form self-regulating oscillators in solution

The synchronization of self-oscillating systems is vital to various biological functions, from the coordinated contraction of heart muscle to the self-organization of slime molds. Through modeling, we design bioinspired materials systems that spontaneously form shape-changing self-oscillators, which communicate to synchronize both their temporal and spatial behavior. Here, catalytic reactions at the bottom of a fluid-filled chamber and on mobile, flexible sheets generate the energy to “pump” the surrounding fluid, which also transports the immersed sheets. The sheets exert a force on the fluid that modifies the flow, which in turn affects the shape and movement of the flexible sheets. This feedback enables a single coated (active) and even an uncoated (passive) sheet to undergo self-oscillation, displaying different oscillatory modes with increases in the catalytic reaction rate. Two sheets (active or passive) introduce excluded volume, steric interactions. This distinctive combination of the hydrodynamic, fluid–structure, and steric interactions causes the sheets to form coupled oscillators, whose motion is synchronized in time and space. We develop a heuristic model that rationalizes this behavior. These coupled self-oscillators exhibit rich and tunable phase dynamics, which depends on the sheets’ initial placement, coverage by catalyst and relative size. Moreover, through variations in the reactant concentration, the system can switch between the different oscillatory modes. This breadth of dynamic behavior expands the functionality of the coupled oscillators, enabling soft robots to display a variety of self-sustained, self-regulating moves.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strong Correspondence in Evapotranspiration and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Between Different Eddy Covariance Systems Enables Quantification of Landscape Heterogeneity in Dryland Fluxes

Abstract The eddy covariance method is widely used to investigate fluxes of energy, water, and carbon dioxide at landscape scales, providing important information on how ecological systems function. Flux measurements quantify ecosystem responses to environmental perturbations and management strategies, including nature‐based climate‐change mitigation measures. However, due to the high cost of conventional instrumentation, most eddy covariance studies employ a single system, limiting spatial representation to the flux footprint. Insufficient replication may be limiting our understanding of ecosystem behavior. To address this limitation, we deployed eight lower‐cost eddy covariance systems in two clusters around two conventional eddy covariance systems in the Chihuahuan Desert of North America for a period of 2 years. These dryland settings characterized by large temperature variations and relatively low carbon dioxide fluxes represented a challenging setting for eddy covariance. We found very good closure of energy and water balance across all systems (within ±9% of unity). We found very good correspondence between the lower‐cost and conventional systems' fluxes of sensible heat (with concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) of ≥0.87), latent energy (evapotranspiration; CCC ≥ 0.89), and useful correspondence in the net ecosystem exchange ((NEE); with CCC ≥ 0.4) at the daily temporal resolution. Relative to the conventional systems, the low‐frequency systems were characterized by a higher level of random error, particularly in the NEE fluxes. Lower‐cost systems can enable wider deployment affording better replication and sampling of spatiotemporal variability at the expense of greater measurement noise that might be limiting for certain applications. Replicated eddy covariance observations may be useful when addressing gaps in the existing monitoring of critical and underrepresented ecosystems and for measuring areas larger than a single flux footprint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model form and sensitivity analysis of CALPHAD-based nucleation models in b-stabilized Ti alloys

Accurate prediction of α-phase nucleation and growth in β-stabilized titanium alloys is crucial for designing heat treatments to optimize mechanical properties in additively manufactured lightweight components. Ideally, predictions of nucleation and growth would incorporate both top-down observations of past experimental heat treatments and bottom-up modeling of phase transformations; however, the appropriate method of combining these information sources is not self-evident. Combining top-down and bottom-up information requires a unified form of model that can connect between spatiotemporal scales, as well as sets of fitting parameters that can be identified by each data source. The selection of which parameters to fit to which data source can be made based on expert opinion, or by performing a sensitivity analysis. In solid-solid nucleation, direct observation of the nucleation and growth process is challenging. Most data on the heat treatment-controlled phase transformations are not in-situ. To predict the process and outcome of the nucleation, growth and coarsening of precipitates, theoretical models of the nucleation pathway are used to bridge the gap. Many sources of uncertainty affect the modeling of this nucleation process. It can be influenced by small variations in the thermomechanical processing history, chemical composition, and initial microstructure. If molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine thermodynamic quantities and inform CALPHAD modeling, additional uncertainty can be introduced and accounted for using Bayesian methods. Top-down uncertainties require additional steps to quantify. The influence of nucleation model form on the sensitivity of predictions to input parameters and physical conditions is the focus of this study. Classical nucleation theory (CNT) allows modeling to formulate the nucleation as homogeneous or, more commonly, heterogeneous. Non-classical nucleation models are also increasingly explored as a means of reconciling top-down and bottom-up data. In this study, the sensitivity of the intragranular nucleation of α in a β-annealed, slow-cooled aging (BASCA) heat treatment of β-stabilized Ti5553 alloy is explored using CNT and both heterogeneous and homogeneous assumptions. The Kampmann-Wagner Numerical model of precipitate nucleation and growth is employed. Using open-source tools (pyCalphad and thermodynamic modeling of TiMo as a surrogate system, a sensitivity analysis is performed to measure variations in key parameters, including chemical driving force, interfacial energy, and diffusivity, as they relate to predictions of precipitate number density. The inclusion of top-down and bottom-up data in selection of nucleation model form is discussed.

Rodriguez Negron, A. M.↗