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At least 127 records · Page 7

Prediction of Hydrological Drought: What Can We Learn From Continental-Scale Offline Simulations?

Land surface model experiments are used to quantify, across the coterminous United States, the contributions (isolated and combined) of soil moisture and snowpack initialization to the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts at multiple leads and for different start dates. Forecasted streamflows are compared to naturalized streamflow observations where available and to synthetic (model-generated) streamflow data elsewhere. We find that snow initialization has a major impact on skill in the mountainous western U.S. and in a portion of the northern Great Plains; a mid-winter (January 1) initialization of snow in these areas leads to significant skill in the spring melting season. Soil moisture initialization also contributes to skill, and although the maximum contributions are not as large as those seen for snow initialization, the soil moisture contributions extend across a much broader geographical area. Soil moisture initialization can contribute to skill at long leads (up to 5 or 6 months), particularly for forecasts issued during winter.

Koster, Randal↗

Relationship of spectral data to grain yield variation

Two-band hand-held radiometer data from a winter wheat field, collected on 21 dates during the spring growing season, were correlated with within-field final grain yield. Significant linear relationships were found between various combinations of the red and photographic infrared radiance data collected and the grain yield. The spectral data explained about 64 percent of the within-field grain yield variation. This variation in grain yield could not be explained using meteorological data as these were similar for all areas of the wheat field. Most importantly, data collected early in the spring were highly correlated with grain yield, a five-week time window existed from stem elongation through anthesis in which the spectral data were most highly correlated with grain yield, and manifestations of wheat canopy water stress were readily apparent in the spectral data.

Tucker, C. J.↗

A validated thermal and biological model for predicting algal productivity in large scale outdoor cultivation systems

Proper assessment of the sustainability of algal products requires an understanding of algal growth rate with regional and temporal resolution. This study developed a bulk growth model that utilizes geospatial data, reactor geometry inputs, and a maximum of six strain-specific parameters to predict algal productivity with temporal and regional resolution. The model requires local weather data to calculate the time-resolved culture temperature which is combined with a biological model based on maximum theoretical carbon fixation to predict the time-resolved algal concentration. Validation of the model against experimental data illustrates an average ac- curacy of 0.27% ± 5.32% when comparing algal concentration at harvest over 45 days of cultivation data for Galdieria sulphuraria 5587.1, and Galdieria sulphuraria Soos grown in photobioreactors (PBRs) in Mesa, AZ (33.4152° N, 111.8315° W). For open raceway ponds (ORPs), an accuracy of 0.9% ± 2.35% was achieved when comparing algal concentration at harvest over 50 days of cultivation data for Chlorella vulgaris, Desmodesmus intermedius, Nannochloropsis oceanica grown in Atlanta, GA (33.7490° N, 84.3880° W) and Mesa, AZ (33.4152° N, 111.8315° W). The validation trials spanned three seasons (winter, spring, and summer) to ensure model ac- curacy throughout the year, and concentration between harvests was modeled with hourly resolution. The validated model is used to assess the productivity at several case-study locations in the United States with Chlorella vulgaris, grown in open raceway ponds and Galdieria sulphuraria grown in vertical flat panel photo- bioreactors. In conclusion, the model has been published as an open-source tool, in an effort to increase the fidelity of future studies that rely on outdoor algae cultivation for feedstock production and allow for time resolved results for future techno-economic and life cycle assessments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Diminishing marginal effect in estimating the dissolved organic carbon export from a watershed

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) can be initially moved from soils to inland waters with surface runoff, and then mineralized, buried, or eventually delivered to the coastal ocean. This land-to-ocean phase of the DOC flux must be accounted for to comprehensively understand the global carbon cycle. To estimate the terrestrial-aquatic DOC leaching, calculating the product of the riverine DOC concentration and the corresponding river discharge measured at the watershed outlet is a common method. However, it is challenging to frequently and exactly record riverine DOC concentrations, thus the relationship between DOC concentrations and discharges (C-Q relationship) are established and used to interpolate the time-series of DOC concentrations. We found that the widely used time-dependent and time-independent C-Q regression models are weak in representing their altered relationship when the discharge is extremely high, which was named as diminishing marginal effect. In this study, we evaluated the performance of two C-Q regression models and discussed possible reasons for the diminishing marginal effect. We suggest that repeated and long-term measurements of the DOC concentration are required to adequately analyze their relationships, especially during the early spring and seasons with heavy precipitations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanisms behind the Springtime North Pacific ENSO Teleconnection Bias in Climate Models

Previous studies have shown that models overestimate the strength of ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific during springtime, but the underlying reasons for this bias remain unknown. Here, in this work, the relative contributions from basic-state and thermodynamic/dynamic forcing factors are disentangled through idealized experiments with the Community Earth System Model and a range of stationary wave modeling experiments. It is revealed that in CESM1 the diabatic heating biases over the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical central-western Pacific jointly favor a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation bias to occur in the North Pacific during the springtime of El Niño (La Niña) events. On one hand, the difference in the modeled and observed climatological basic state does not lead to the bias formation directly, as the diabatic heating biases are the primary cause. On the other hand, the springtime basic state is conducive to a more vigorous stationary wave response to the biased diabatic heating than the wintertime state, and this explains why the teleconnection bias occurs during springtime but not in winter. An iterative bias-correction approach is then implemented in the atmospheric model component of CESM1 to verify the linkage between the tropical diabatic heating bias and the teleconnection bias. Moreover, this explanation is shown to be relevant in other models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as a strong relationship is found between biases in ENSO-related tropical central-western Pacific/Indian Ocean precipitation and North Pacific circulation across models in spring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Muon Flux Variance from Severe Atmospheric Conditions

We analyze data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the QuarkNet Research Group at Fermilab to study the variance in muon flux due to extreme weather conditions. We considered three high-intensity storms for each season: winter, spring, and summer. The most significant observation was during winter, with a ~125% increase in muon flux corresponding to a temperature drop of ~20K. Additionally, we are developing CosmicWatch muon detectors to be used in tests for the MMBC/MAMBA Bubble Chamber. A pair of these detectors will be employed to trigger on muons, providing extremely precise and inexpensive tracking granularity in the form of a muon telescope.

Aamir, Yusuf↗

Shifting Trade-offs: Finding the Sustainable Nexus of Hydropower and Environmental Flows in the San Joaquin River Watershed, California

Environmental flow management in watersheds with multi-objective reservoirs is often presented as an additional constraint to an already strained and over-allocated stream system. Nevertheless, environmental flow legislation and regulatory policies are increasingly being developed and implemented globally. In California, USA, recent legislative and regulatory policies place environmental flows at the forefront of the state’s water management objectives; however, the increased reliance on hydropower to support climate change mitigation goals may complicate efforts on both issues. This study modelled alternative environmental flow strategies in the major tributaries to the San Joaquin River in California. Strategies included detailed water management rules for hydropower production, flood control, and water deliveries, and three methodological approaches to environmental flow releases: minimum instream flows (“baseline”) year-round, 40% of full natural flow (FNF) during the spring runoff season and minimum releases the remainder of the year, and functional flows year-round. Results show that environmental flow strategies affect downstream flow releases in each of the San Joaquin’s four sub-basins differently depending on infrastructure capacity, water management objectives, and hydrologic year types. While hydropower production was comparable or declined in the Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and Merced basins, functional flow and 40% FNF strategies increased hydropower production in the Upper San Joaquin basin by 11%. Uncontrolled spill of high flow events decreased when high flow releases were based on hydrologic cues rather than exclusively on flood storage capacity. Water deliveries were reduced in all years regardless of environmental flow strategy. The 40% FNF and functional flow strategies both increased water released to the river relative to baseline, but in different ways. The functional flow strategy allocated water in a holistic approach that enhanced ecological functions in all years, but particularly in moderate and wet years. In contrast, the 40% FNF strategy provided increased flows relative to baseline and some ecological benefit in dry years, but less ecological benefit in other years. This study shows that alternative environmental flow strategies will have different and important trade-offs for integrated water management, and may mutually benefit seemingly conflicting objectives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A Preliminary Assessment of ERTS Imagery for Marine Resources

The application of ERTS-1 imagery to identifying marine resources is discussed. Specific reference is made to the use of ERTS-1 for observing the onset of the spring growing season in the ocean while it occurs. ERTS-1 data is used for the following purposes: (1) location of large areas of seasonally variable biological activity, (2) measurement of water depth in shallow seas, (3) monitoring of sewer discharges, (4) assessment of erosion damage to beaches and shoreline installations, and (5) navigation through ice-filled waterways.

Ewing, G. C.↗

Surface temperature and albedo relationships in Senegal derived from NOAA-7 satellite data

The interaction between surface albedo and local climate in Senegal, Africa, is examined using NOAA AVHRR data collected from September 1981-October 1982. The temporal variations of albedo and surface temperature are calculated and examined. It is observed that the albedo and ground temperature are largest in the winter and spring (dry season) and smallest in the late summer and fall (wet season). From the wet to the dry seasons the albedo varied by about 3 percentage points and the ground temperature by about 13 K. A positive correlation between albedo and ground temperatures is detected; this indicates that the albedo does not control the ground temperature. Other factors that can influence ground temperatures are atmospheric turbulence, soil moisture, thermal inertia, and ground emissivity, which are all affected by the presence or absence of vegetation.

Vukovich, Fred M.↗

Variability of pigment biomass in the California Current system as determined by satellite imagery. II - Temporal variability

Characteristics of temporal variability in the California Current system are analyzed using a 30-month time series of CZCS imagery. About 20-25 percent of the variance is produced by a periodic annual cycle with peak values in winter. Analysis of ship-based chlorophyll measurements indicates that the winter peak is only characteristic of the upper portion of the euphotic zone and that total water column chlorophyll peaks during the spring upwelling season. Satellite studies of intraannual variability are modulated by strong 5- to 6-day oscillation in the availability of usable imagery, resulting from a combination of satellite orbital dynamics, which produces images of the study area roughly 4 out of every 6 days, and an oscillation in cloud cover, which controls the availability of clear imagery. The cloud cover oscillation, which is also present in coastal winds, undoubtedly affects the ocean surface and biases the data obtained by satellites. Analysis of data using a 5-day time step indicates that the predominant mode of nonseasonal variability is characterized by in-phase fluctuations throughout the southern and central California coastal region.

Michaelsen, Joel↗

Variability of particulate organic carbon concentration in the north polar Atlantic based on ocean color observations with Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS)

We use satellite data from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) to investigate distributions of particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration in surface waters of the north polar Atlantic Ocean during the spring summer season (April through August) over a 6-year period from 1998 through 2003. By use of field data collected at sea, we developed regional relationships for the purpose of estimating POC from remote-sensing observations of ocean color. Analysis of several approaches used in the POC algorithm development and match-up analysis of coincident in situ derived and satellite-derived estimates of POC resulted in selection of an algorithm that is based on the blue-to-green ratio of remote-sensing reflectance R(sub rs) (or normalized water-leaving radiance L(sub wn)). The application of the selected algorithm to a 6-year record of SeaWiFS monthly composite data of L(sub wn) revealed patterns of seasonal and interannual variability of POC in the study region. For example, the results show a clear increase of POC throughout the season. The lowest values, generally less than 200 mg per cubic meters, and at some locations often less than 50 mg per cubic meters, were observed in April. In May and June, POC can exceed 300 or even 400 mg per cubic meters in some parts of the study region. Patterns of interannual variability are intricate, as they depend on the geographic location within the study region and particular time of year (month) considered. By comparing the results averaged over the entire study region and the entire season (April through August) for each year separately, we found that the lowest POC occurred in 2001 and the highest POC occurred in 2002 and 1999.

Stramska, Malgorzata↗

Monitoring the Black Hole Binary GRS 1758-258 with INTEGRAL and RXTE

The microquasar GRS 1758-258 is one of only three persistent black hole binaries that spend most of their time in the hard spectral state, the other two being Cyg X-l and 1E 1741.7-2942. It therefore provides the rare opportunity for an extensive long term study of this important black hole state which is associated with strong variability and radio jet emission. INTEGRAL has been monitoring the source since the first Galactic Center Deep Exposure season in spring 2003 during two 2-3 months long Galactic Center viewing epochs each year, amounting to 11 epochs including spring of 2008. With the exception of the last epoch quasi-simultaneous RXTE monitoring observations are available as well. Here we present an analysis of the epoch averaged broad band spectra which display considerable long term variability, most notably the occurrence of two soft/off states, extreme examples for the hysteretic behavior of black hole binaries. The hard source spectrum and long exposures allow us to extend the analysis for several epochs to approximately 800 keV using PICsIT data and address the question of the presence of a non-thermal Comptonization component.

Pottschmidt, Katja↗

The role of atmospheric heat transport in the seasonal carbon dioxide cycle

We have carried out numerical experiments with a general circulations model (GCM) and energy balance model of the martian atmosphere to define the importance of heat transported to the polar regions in determining the amount of CO2 condensed on the surface during the fall and winter seasons and the amount sublimated during the spring and summer seasons. In so doing, we performed both sensitivity experiments, in which the dust opacity was varied over the full range of its observed values, and annual simulations, in which the dust opacity varied continuously with seasonal data, in accord with measurements taken at the Viking landers. Dust opacity represents the key variable for determining the contribution of atmospheric heat advection to the energy budget in the polar regions. The amount of heat advected to the winter polar regions increases monotonically as the dust opacity at low and middle latitudes increases. However, the increase is sharpest between optical depths of 0 and 1 tends to level off at still higher optical depths. Heat advection is more important at times of CO2 condensation than CO2 sublimation, since the temperature gradients are much steeper in the winter hemisphere than in the summer hemisphere. Because dust opacity is much higher during northern winter than during southern winter, atmospheric heat advection reduces the amount of CO2 that condenses in the north by a much larger factor than it does in the south.

Pollack, James B.↗

Prescribing Stratospheric Chemistry Overestimates Southern Hemisphere Climate Change During Austral Spring in Response to Quadrupled CO2

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response.

Stratospheric ozone feedback↗

Seasonal And Regional Differentiation Of Bio-Optical Properties Within The North Polar Atlantic

Using data collected during spring and summer seasons in the north polar Atlantic we examined the variability of the spectral absorption, a(lambda), and backscattering, b(sub b)(lambda), coefficients of surface waters and its relation to phytoplankton pigment concentration and composition. For a given chlorophyll a concentration (TChla), the concentrations of photosynthetic carotenoids (PSC), photoprotective carotenoids (PPC), and total accessory pigments (AP) were consistently lower in spring than in summer. The chlorophyll-specific absorption coefficients of phytoplankton and total particulate matter were also lower in spring, which can be partly attributed to lower proportions of PPC, PSC, and AP in spring. The spring values of the green-to-blue band ratio of the absorption coefficient were higher than the summer ratios. The blue-to-green ratios of backscattering coefficient were also higher in spring. The higher b(sub b) values and lower blue-to-green b(sub b) ratios in summer were likely associated with higher concentrations of detrital particles in summer compared to spring. Because the product of the green-to-blue absorption ratio and the blue-to-green backscattering ratio is a proxy for the blue-to-green ratio of remote-sensing reflectance, we conclude that the performance of ocean color band-ratio algorithms for estimating pigments in the north polar Atlantic is significantly affected by seasonal shifts in the relationships between absorption and TChla as well as between backscattering and TChla. Intriguingly, however, fairly good estimate of the particulate beam attenuation coefficient at 660 nm (potential measure of total particulate matter or particulate organic carbon concentration) can be obtained by applying a single blue-to-green band-ratio algorithm for both spring and summer seasons.

Stramska, Malgorzata↗

Bull Trout and Westslope Cutthroat Trout movement in a dam tailrace

Populations of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus and Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi in the Pend Oreille Basin have declined, partly due to fragmentation caused by hydropower dams. This study aimed to analyze the movements and behavior of these species downstream of Albeni Falls Dam over two years to inform fishway design. Radiotracking investigations were conducted to monitor 10 adult Bull Trout and 17 adult Westslope Cutthroat Trout from September 2008 to July 2010. Macro and micro detection zones were delineated to study fine- and large-scale movements in the tailrace. Macro zones included the spillway and powerhouse tailrace areas. Micro zones were nested within macro zones to identify regions close to the dam where fishway structures could be built. Both Bull Trout and Westslope Cutthroat Trout exhibited high mobility in the dam tailrace, transitioning between macro detection zones. Seasonal variations influenced their distribution patterns. During the spring freshet migration season, both species were primarily detected at the left powerhouse micro zone. In sedentary periods (fall/winter and summer), fish actively swam throughout the tailrace, displaying search behavior. These behavior observations suggest that potential fishway entrances located near dam concrete would be effective: the area near the left powerhouse was identified as the optimal construction location. This study highlights the feasibility of designing fish passage structures to mitigate population fragmentation and support species recovery.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Soft-short management and remediation in 10-year-old NiCds in Geo orbit

After 10 years in Geo orbit, during the spring 1993 eclipse season, soft shorts occurred in cells of two of the three batteries on the F2R spacecraft On battery #1, the cell soft short turned suddenly into a hard short; the resulting sudden 1.2V fall in battery voltage and rise in temperature was observed via telemetry. On battery #3, the deleterious impact of its soft short increased day by day, manifesting itself as a drop in battery voltage part-way through each eclipse, causing high loading on the remaining good battery. This paper reports how by planned charge management, including applying (against-the-book) overcharge ratios (C/D) exceeding 1.75, the battery #3 cell soft short was 'built down' until the cell voltage fade ceased. The problem with the battery #3 soft-shorted cell was fought with partial success throughout the latter half of the fall 93 season, and the lessons learned were applied to alleviate the problem during the spring 94 and fall 94 eclipse seasons. The life of the spacecraft was successfully prolonged until it was retired in March 1995.

Flordeliza, Nicanor A.↗