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DOE OSTI2025

Elucidating the Dynamics of Electroweak Symmetry Breaking through Study of High-Multiplicity Boson Final States at the LHC

To understand the full story of the electroweak symmetry breaking (EWSB) and how the universe arrived at today’s universe, the structure of the Higgs potential needs to be probed. We must carefully select and study processes at the LHC that are sensitive to the Higgs potential. In this context, longitudinal vector boson scattering (VBS) processes, V L V L →V L V L , and di-Higgs production, including V L V L →HH at the LHC have been studied for any potential deviation from SM prediction. However, many classes of models beyond the Standard Model (BSM) may result in the 2→2 process being perfectly well-behaved and SM-like but show interesting deviations in 2→3, 2→4, or 2→n(3) processes. If we are to complete the mission objectives the P5 laid out, then a large swath of 2→n(3) must be thoroughly searched and checked. The research supported by this award used data collected at the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) to explore VBS produced VVH process in the semi-merged channel. In addition, in the electroweak sector, there are open questions in the multi-gauge boson couplings and the Higgs couplings to the gauge bosons. The research supported by the award also studied the triboson production WWZ process at the LHC, which is a crossed diagram of a VBS process. During the funded period of 9 months, the analysis designs have been finalized.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Iterative and Non-Iterative Strain-Gage Balance Load Calculation Methods

The accuracy of iterative and non-iterative strain-gage balance load calculation methods was compared using data from the calibration of a force balance. Two iterative and one non-iterative method were investigated. In addition, transformations were applied to balance loads in order to process the calibration data in both direct read and force balance format. NASA's regression model optimization tool BALFIT was used to generate optimized regression models of the calibration data for each of the three load calculation methods. This approach made sure that the selected regression models met strict statistical quality requirements. The comparison of the standard deviation of the load residuals showed that the first iterative method may be applied to data in both the direct read and force balance format. The second iterative method, on the other hand, implicitly assumes that the primary gage sensitivities of all balance gages exist. Therefore, the second iterative method only works if the given balance data is processed in force balance format. The calibration data set was also processed using the non-iterative method. Standard deviations of the load residuals for the three load calculation methods were compared. Overall, the standard deviations show very good agreement. The load prediction accuracies of the three methods appear to be compatible as long as regression models used to analyze the calibration data meet strict statistical quality requirements. Recent improvements of the regression model optimization tool BALFIT are also discussed in the paper.

Ulbrich, N.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Ozone Precursor Emissions from Four World Regions on Tropospheric Composition and Radiative Climate Forcing

Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO4 (sup 2-)). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO4 (sup 2-) and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean plus or minus 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 plus or minus 0.6 to 1.7 2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (-162.6 plus or minus 2 mWm(sup -2) for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (-0.4 plus or minus 0.2 to 0.7 plus or minus 0.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1) and CO emissions (-0.13 plus or minus 0.02 to -0.15 plus or minus 0.02 mWm(sup-2)/Tg CO yr(sup-1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by -1.9 to- 5.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), -0.2 to -0.7 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1), and -0.02 to -0.05 mWm(sup -2)/ Tg CO yr(sup -1). Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO4 (sup -2), regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO4 2 responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 plus or minus 2.6 to -1.9 plus or minus 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 plus or minus 1.2 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and -0.09 plus or minus 0.5 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP(sub 100)) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 plus or minus 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 plus or minus 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (18.7 plus or minus 25.9 to 1.9 plus or minus 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 plus or minus 1.7 to 8.3 plus or minus 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 plus or minus 0.4 to 1.7 plus or minus 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP(sub 100) for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

ozone↗

NASA NTRS1978

An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model

Monthly mean global forecasts for January 1975 have been computed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model from four slightly different sets of initial conditions - a 'control' state and three random perturbations thereof - to simulate the effects of initial state uncertainty on forecast quality. Differences among the forecasts are examined in terms of energetics, synoptic patterns and forecast statistics. The 'noise level' of the model predictions is depicted on global maps of standard deviations of sea level pressures, 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures for the set of four forecasts. Initial small-scale random errors do not appear to result in any major degradation of the large-scale monthly mean forecast beyond that generated by the model itself, nor do they appear to represent the major source of large-scale forecast error.

Spar, J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development and Application of NASA SPoRT’s DustTracker-AI Model for Real-Time Identification and Tracking of Dust in Geostationary Satellite Imagery

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center developed the DustTracker-AI model for identifying and tracking dust in NASA/NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imagery in a real-time framework. A training dataset consisting of day and night dust cases was gathered over the southwestern consisting of 115 distinct images and over a million dust pixels and 256 million no dust pixels. The dataset was separated into training (60%), testing (20%), and validation (20%). A simple random forest machine learning model was developed originally to overcome the problem of night-time dust detection and has been expanded to a comprehensive day/night model for dust identification and tracking. This physically-based machine-learning approach uses NASA/NOAA GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager infrared imagery as inputs to the model. The model probability of dust output achieves an Area-Under-Curve (AUC) of 0.97 with a standard deviation of 0.04 for dust cases. For images with dust present, the model correctly labels 85% of dust pixels for all dust images in the validation data set. In conjunction with developing the machine-learning model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) partnered with NOAA National Weather Service forecast offices to evaluate the model for utility in weather forecasting operations during the 2021 and 2023 late winter-spring seasons. Preliminary evaluation has indicated the majority of forecasters described the DustTracker-AI probabilities as having added confidence to interpreting the Dust RGB and other satellite products to objectively assess the dust extent and trends and increased the amount of time the dust plume could be tracked into the night as compared to use of the Dust RGB. More recently, SPoRT tested small scale events associated with thunderstorm outflow and burn scars to determine the model’s ability to capture local events. This presentation highlights design of the model, validation/evaluation of model performance, and example cases collected during end user product assessments.

Connor H Welch↗

DOE OSTI2025

Statistical model of the stimulated forward Brillouin scattering driven by a randomized laser beam in plasma

The modeling of a spatially incoherent laser beam remains a central problem of the parametric instabilities in the context of inertial confinement fusion. This letter gives a simplified and comprehensive overview of the recent analytical developments regarding the modeling of these laser beams and a comparison with a dedicated experiment. Our model accounts for the first time for the statistical standard deviation of the gain and accurately captures the entanglement between wave mixing processes and the speckle correlations thus resolving the longstanding contradictions between the random phase approximation and the model of independent speckles. It is successfully compared to a recent laser beam spray experiment and the associated paraxial simulations, demonstrating that backscattering predictions require accounting for the beam spray. Furthermore, our framework thus provides a way to evaluate and guide the analysis of parametric instabilities in high laser energy experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurements of electroweak production of a photon in association with two jets in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

The first observation of electroweak production of a photon in association with two forward jets in proton-proton collisions is presented. The measurement uses data recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC during 2016–2018 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . The analysis is performed in a region enriched in photon production via vector boson fusion, with a requirement on the transverse momentum of the photon to exceed 200 GeV. The cross section is measured to be ${202}_{-32}^{+36}$ fb, at a significance with respect to the null hypothesis that exceeds five standard deviations. This is in agreement with the standard model prediction of ${177}_{-12}^{+13}$ fb. Differential cross sections are measured as a function of various observables. Limits are set on dimension-6 effective field theory operators that contribute to the WW γ interaction. The observed 95% confidence intervals for the corresponding Warsaw basis Wilson coefficients c W and c HWB are [−0.11, 0.16] and [−1.6, 1.5], respectively.

electroweak interaction↗

NASA NTRS1977

Analysis of a first order phase locked loop in the presence of Gaussian noise

A first-order digital phase locked loop is analyzed by application of a Markov chain model. Steady state loop error probabilities, phase standard deviation, and mean loop transient times are determined for various input signal to noise ratios. Results for direct loop simulation are presented for comparison.

Blasche, P. R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Two Empirical Models for Land-falling Hurricane Gust Factors

Gaussian and lognormal models for gust factors as a function of height and mean windspeed in land-falling hurricanes are presented. The models were empirically derived using data from 2004 hurricanes Frances and Jeanne and independently verified using data from 2005 hurricane Wilma. The data were collected from three wind towers at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station with instrumentation at multiple levels from 12 to 500 feet above ground level. An additional 200-foot tower was available for the verification. Mean wind speeds from 15 to 60 knots were included in the data. The models provide formulas for the mean and standard deviation of the gust factor given the mean windspeed and height above ground. These statistics may then be used to assess the probability of exceeding a specified peak wind threshold of operational significance given a specified mean wind speed.

Merceret, Franics J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Probabilistic SSME blades structural response under random pulse loading

The purpose is to develop models of random impacts on a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) turbopump blade and to predict the probabilistic structural response of the blade to these impacts. The random loading is caused by the impact of debris. The probabilistic structural response is characterized by distribution functions for stress and displacements as functions of the loading parameters which determine the random pulse model. These parameters include pulse arrival, amplitude, and location. The analysis can be extended to predict level crossing rates. This requires knowledge of the joint distribution of the response and its derivative. The model of random impacts chosen allows the pulse arrivals, pulse amplitudes, and pulse locations to be random. Specifically, the pulse arrivals are assumed to be governed by a Poisson process, which is characterized by a mean arrival rate. The pulse intensity is modelled as a normally distributed random variable with a zero mean chosen independently at each arrival. The standard deviation of the distribution is a measure of pulse intensity. Several different models were used for the pulse locations. For example, three points near the blade tip were chosen at which pulses were allowed to arrive with equal probability. Again, the locations were chosen independently at each arrival. The structural response was analyzed both by direct Monte Carlo simulation and by a semi-analytical method.

Shiao, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1993

The influence of thermal inertia on Mars' seasonal pressure variation and the effect of the weather component

Using a Leighton-Murray type diurnal and seasonal Mars thermal model, we found that it is possible to reproduce the seasonal variation in daily-averaged pressures (approximately 680-890 Pa) measured by Viking Lander 1 (VL1), during years without global dust storms, with a standard deviation of less than 5 Pa. In this simple model, surface CO2, frost condensation, and sublimation rates at each latitude are determined by the net effects of radiation, latent heat, and heat conduction in subsurface soil layers. An inherent assumption of our model is that the seasonal pressure variation is due entirely to the exchange of mass between the atmosphere and polar caps. However, the results of recent Mars GCM modeling have made it clear that there is a significant dynamical contribution to the seasonal pressure variation. This 'weather' component is primarily due to large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation, and its magnitude depends somewhat on the dust content of the atmosphere. The overall form of the theoretical weather component at the location of VL1, as calculated by the AMES GCM, remains the same over the typical range of Mars dust opacities.

Wood, S. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Measurement of the Anomalous Muon Spin Precession Frequency in the Muon $g-2$ Experiment at Fermilab

The Muon $g-2$ Experiment operated at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL, or Fermilab) between 2018 and 2023 to produce the world's most precise measurement of the muon's \textit{anomalous magnetic moment}, $a_\mu = \frac{g_\mu - 2}{2}$, which expresses the relative deviation in the muon's $g$-factor from a baseline theoretical expectation that $g_\mu = 2$. In the Standard Model of particle physics, $g_\mu > 2$ and hence $a_\mu > 0$ by a calculable amount that depends on all possible interactions between the muon and all other fundamental particles, including any potentially undiscovered interactions beyond the Standard Model. For this reason, measurements of the electron anomaly $a_e$ and later the muon anomaly $a_\mu$ have helped guide the development of the Standard Model since the inception of quantum field theory, and the measured value of $a_\mu$ provides a valuable constraint for new hypotheses that extend the Standard Model. As of 2006, the leading measurement and Standard Model prediction for $a_\mu$ exhibited tension at the level of about three standard deviations, motivating an improved measurement at Fermilab that could test the tension more precisely. The experiment functions by storing a polarized beam of $\mu^+$ in a uniform magnetic field, which simultaneously induces circular motion and spin precession. As the stored muons undergo the Michel decay $\mu^+ \to e^+ + \nu_e + \bar{\nu}_\mu$, mediated by the parity-violating weak interaction, the rest-frame $e^+$ emission direction is correlated with the parent $\mu^+$ spin orientation. Boosting into the laboratory frame encodes this correlation in the decay $e^+$ energy, which is higher when the emission (i.e. $\mu^+$ spin direction) is aligned with the $\mu^+$ momentum, and lower when opposite. Detectors then count the rate of high-energy decay $e^+$, which modulates at the difference between the $\mu^+$ revolution and spin precession frequencies. This observed frequency, called the \textit{anomalous spin precession frequency} $\omega_a$, is directly proportional to $a_\mu$. The extraction of $\omega_a$ proceeds by fitting the time spectrum of detected $e^+$, which requires precise modeling of the $\omega_a$ oscillation as well as any perturbations from beam dynamics and detector acceptance. Using the $\omega_a$ analysis presented in this work, based on Runs 4 -- 6 of the Muon $g-2$ Experiment at Fermilab, we find that $a_\mu = 0.001\,165\,920\,738(162)$ with a relative uncertainty of 139 parts per billion.

Barrett, Tyler [Cornell U.]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating adaptive learning with post hoc model explanation and symbolic regression to build interpretable surrogate models

Abstract We develop a materials informatics workflow to build an interpretable surrogate model for micromagnetic simulations. Our goal is to predict the energy barrier of a moving isolated skyrmion in rare-earth-free $$\hbox {Mn}_4$$ Mn 4 N. Our approach integrates adaptive learning with post hoc model explanation and symbolic regression methods. We discuss an unexplored acquisition function (information condensing active learning) within the adaptive learning loop and compare it with the known standard deviation function for efficient navigation of the search space. Model-agnostic post hoc explanation techniques then uncover trends learned by the trained model, which we then leverage to constrain the expressions used for symbolic regression. Graphical abstract

Biswas, Ankita↗

NASA NTRS1985

Proposed ozone reference models for the middle atmosphere

Since the publication of the last COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere (CIRA 72), large amounts of ozone data acquired from satellites have become available in addition to increasing quantities of rocketsonde, balloonsonde, Dobson, M83, and Umkehr measurements. From the available archived satellite data, models are developed for the new CIRA using 5 satellite experiments (Nimbus 7 SBUV and LIMS, AEM-2 SAGE, and SME IR and UVS) of the monthly latitudinal and altitudinal variations in the ozone mixing ratio in the middle atmosphere. Standard deviations and interannual variations are also quantified. The satellite models are shown to agree well with a previous reference model based on rocket and balloon measurements.

Keating, G. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Charged-particle multiplicity distributions over a wide pseudorapidity range in p–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

This paper presents the primary charged-particle multiplicity distributions in proton–lead collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon–nucleon collision of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. The distributions are reported for non-single diffractive collisions in different pseudorapidity ranges. The measurements are performed using the combined information from the Silicon Pixel Detector and the Forward Multiplicity Detector of ALICE. The multiplicity distributions are parametrised with a double negative binomial distribution function which provides satisfactory descriptions of the distributions for all the studied pseudorapidity intervals. The data are compared to models and analyzed quantitatively, evaluating the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis). The shape evolution of the measured multiplicity distributions is studied in terms of KNO variables and it is found that none of the considered models reproduces the measurements. This paper also reports on the average charged-particle multiplicity, normalised by the average number of participating nucleon pairs, as a function of the collision energy. The multiplicity results are then compared to measurements made in proton–proton and nucleus–nucleus collisions across a wide range of collision energies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1989

The combination of satellite and topographic/isostatic potential models for mean anomaly determinations

A method is presented for the estimation of a global gravity anomaly field using the combination of satellite-derived potential coefficient models and the coefficients implied by the Airy-Heiskanen topographic/isostatic potential (Rummel et al., 1988) from topographic models with a 30-km depth of compensation. Gravity anomalies calculated with this method are compared with a terrestrial 1 x 1 degree anomaly file where the anomaly standard deviations were less than 10 mgals. Using the GEM T1 model (Marsh et al., 1988) to degree 36, the rms anomaly discrepency was + or - 19 mgals, while the rms values for the terrestrial anomalies was + or - 28 mgals.

Rapp, Richard H.↗

NASA NTRS1973

The Development of a Stochastic Model of the Atmosphere Between 30 and 90 Km to Be Used in Determining the Effect of Atmospheric Variability on Space Shuttle Entry Parameters

A stochasitc model of the atmosphere between 30 and 90 km was developed for use in Monte Carlo space shuttle entry studies. The model is actually a family of models, one for each latitude-season category as defined in the 1966 U.S. Standard Atmosphere Supplements. Each latitude-season model generates a pseudo-random temperature profile whose mean is the appropriate temperature profile from the Standard Atmosphere Supplements. The standard deviation of temperature at each altitude for a given latitude-season model was estimated from sounding-rocket data. Departures from the mean temperature at each altitude were produced by assuming a linear regression of temperature on the solar heating rate of ozone. A profile of random ozone concentrations was first generated using an auxiliary stochastic ozone model, also developed as part of this study, and then solar heating rates were computed for the random ozone concentrations.

Campbell, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Evapotranspiration from nonuniform surfaces - A first approach for short-term numerical weather prediction

Observations of surface heterogeneity of soil moisture from scales of meters to hundreds of kilometers are discussed, and a relationship between grid element size and soil moisture variability is presented. An evapotranspiration model is presented which accounts for the variability of soil moisture, standing surface water, and vegetation internal and stomatal resistance to moisture flow from the soil. The mean values and standard deviations of these parameters are required as input to the model. Tests of this model against field observations are reported, and extensive sensitivity tests are presented which explore the importance of including subgrid-scale variability in an evapotranspiration model.

Wetzel, Peter J.↗