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At least 127 records · Page 7

Identification and interpretation of patterns in rocket engine data

A prototype software system was constructed to detect anomalous Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) behavior in the early stages of fault development significantly earlier than the indication provided by either redline detection mechanism or human expert analysis. The major task of the research project is to analyze ground test data, to identify patterns associated with the anomalous engine behavior, and to develop a pattern identification and detection system on the basis of this analysis. A prototype expert system which was developed on both PC and Symbolics 3670 lisp machine for detecting anomalies in turbopump vibration data was checked with data from ground tests 902-473, 902-501, 902-519, and 904-097 of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. The neural networks method was also applied to supplement the statistical method utilized in the prototype system to investigate the feasibility in detecting anomalies in turbopump vibration of SSME. In most cases the anomalies detected by the expert system agree with those reported by NASA. On the neural networks approach, the results are given the successful detection rate higher than 95 percent to identify either normal or abnormal running condition based on the experimental data as well as numerical simulation.

Lo, C. F.

Interrelationships Between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, Binomial, Logit, and Bayes' Rule Probability of Detection Methodologies

Unknown risks are introduced into failure critical systems when probability of detection (POD) capabilities are accepted without a complete understanding of the statistical method applied and the interpretation of the statistical results. The presence of this risk in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community is revealed in common statements about POD. These statements are often interpreted in a variety of ways and therefore, the very existence of the statements identifies the need for a more comprehensive understanding of POD methodologies. Statistical methodologies have data requirements to be met, procedures to be followed, and requirements for validation or demonstration of adequacy of the POD estimates. Risks are further enhanced due to the wide range of statistical methodologies used for determining the POD capability. Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' rule POD methodologies are widely used in determining POD capability. This work focuses on Hit-Miss data to reveal the framework of the interrelationships between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' Rule methodologies as they are applied to POD. Knowledge of these interrelationships leads to an intuitive and global understanding of the statistical data, procedural and validation requirements for establishing credible POD estimates.

Generazio, Edward R.

New Probe of Cosmic Birefringence Using Galaxy Polarization and Shapes

We propose a novel statistical method to measure cosmic birefringence and demonstrate its power in probing parity violation due to axions. Exploiting an empirical correlation between the integrated radio polarization direction of a spiral galaxy and its apparent shape, we devise an unbiased minimum-variance estimator for the rotation angle, which should achieve an uncertainty of 5°–15° per galaxy. In conclusion, large galaxy samples from the forthcoming SKA continuum surveys, together with optical shape catalogs, promise a comparable or even lower noise power spectrum for the rotation angle than in the CMB Stage-IV (CMB-S4) experiment, with different systematics.

Axion-like particles

Unique & challenging aspects of plutonium metal standards exchange program for actinide measurements

The Los Alamos National Laboratory exchange program is the only program of its kind for the distribution of plutonium (Pu) standards materials with a range of impurity contents to multiple laboratories for destructive measurements of elemental concentration. This paper discusses statistical methods used to address challenges in Pu metal exchange data by way of two case studies. Challenges include how to evaluate a data set when a large fraction of the values are minimum detection limits (MDLs), and how to determine potential outliers with limited in-formation on the true spread of the data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Recent evolution of risk analyses in atomic bomb survivor studies: new methods and applications

Abstract Several decades ago a dramatic leap forward occurred in the development and application of statistical methods for modeling radiation risk at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF). Poisson regression analysis for grouped person-year cohort data and the linear excess relative risk model were introduced, and subsequently a devoted software system, Epicure® (https://www.hirosoft.com), was developed by researchers at RERF and at the U.S. National Cancer Institute. Numerous advancements in understanding radiation effects on humans were made possible with these methods, which are still the state-of-the-art for risk assessment at RERF and have remained part of the standard toolbox for radiation—and other environmental—epidemiological studies worldwide. Nevertheless, as our understanding of radiation risk has increased, so have the breadth and depth of questions that require answers based on emerging data that are not amenable to these conventional methods. This overview briefly recounts the conventional methods and then describes our recent diversification into the use or development of new statistical approaches to meet the challenges of burgeoning biological data and emerging mechanistic information. We briefly discuss the development and application of new methods, current and planned, that are part of the RERF Statistics Department’s role in supporting institution-wide research, especially in our collaborations involving the Life Span Study, Adult Health Study, and First-generation Offspring Clinical Study. Some approaches to modeling and assessing radiation risk with newer methods mentioned herein have already been published, while some are still in development or are only beginning at the proposal stage.

Oncology

An improved method for determining force balance calibration accuracy

The results of an improved statistical method used at Langley Research Center for determining and stating the accuracy of a force balance calibration are presented. The application of the method for initial loads, initial load determination, auxiliary loads, primary loads, and proof loads is described. The data analysis is briefly addressed.

Ferris, Alice T.

An objective method for forecasting tropical cyclone motion using Nimbus and NOAA-2 infrared measurements

A statistical method for predicting tropical cyclone positions 12, 24, 48 and 72 hours after initial observation is described. Satellite measurements were at the 11.0 micron channel and at equivalent blackbody temperatures which give representations of the structure of the cyclones, as well as the circulation features surrounding them. In all, 197 individual measurements for blackbody temperature were made. Algorithms prepared from a single satellite image included 14 climatological and persistence type variables, and are based on eigenvector preprocessing and a series of independent screening tests. The independent tests showed that the average error made by the algorithms from the single satellite observation were comparable to the 48 hr Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast and were about 10 percent better for 72 hr forecasts. Forecasts using only climatological persistence variables were found to be 20 percent worse than JTWC for 24 hr forecasts and 10 percent worse for 48 and 72 hr forecasts. When both satellite and nonsatellite variables were included, it was found that the method was comparable to JTWC for the 24 and 48 hr forecasts and about 25 percent better for the 72 hr forecasts.

Hunter, H. E.

Test methods and design allowables for fibrous composites. Volume 2

Topics discussed include extreme/hostile environment testing, establishing design allowables, and property/behavior specific testing. Papers are presented on environmental effects on the high strain rate properties of graphite/epoxy composite, the low-temperature performance of short-fiber reinforced thermoplastics, the abrasive wear behavior of unidirectional and woven graphite fiber/PEEK, test methods for determining design allowables for fiber reinforced composites, and statistical methods for calculating material allowables for MIL-HDBK-17. Attention is also given to a test method to measure the response of composite materials under reversed cyclic loads, a through-the-thickness strength specimen for composites, the use of torsion tubes to measure in-plane shear properties of filament-wound composites, the influlence of test fixture design on the Iosipescu shear test for fiber composite materials, and a method for monitoring in-plane shear modulus in fatigue testing of composites.

Chamis, Christos C.

Statistics Clinic

Do you have elevated p‐values? Is the data analysis process getting you down? Do you experience anxiety when you need to respond to criticism of statistical methods in your manuscript? You may be suffering from Insufficient Statistical Support Syndrome (ISSS). For symptomatic relief of ISSS, come for a free consultation with JSC biostatisticians at our help desk during the poster sessions at the HRP Investigators Workshop. Get answers to common questions about sample size, missing data, multiple testing, when to trust the results of your analyses and more. Side effects may include sudden loss of statistics anxiety, improved interpretation of your data, and increased confidence in your results.

Feiveson, Alan H.

An update on the life analysis of spur gears

An analytical method for predicting surface fatigue life of gears was presented. General statistical methods were outlined, showing the application of the general methods to a simple gear mesh. Experimentally determined values for constants in the life equation were given. Comparison of the life theory with test results and AGMA standards was made. Gear geometry pertinent to life calculations was reviewed.

Coy, J. J.

Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 12, No. 1

Topics discussed include: a) Data Mining Methods Applied to Flight Operations Quality Assurance Data: A Comparison to Standard Statistical Methods; b) Financial Comparisons across Different Business Models in the Canadian Airline Industry; c) Carving a Niche for the "No-Frills" Carrier, Air Arabia, in Oil-Rich Skies; d) Situational Leadership in Air Traffic Control; and e) The Very Light Jet Arrives: Stakeholders and Their Perceptions.

Bowers, Brent D.

A survey of inlet/engine distortion compatibility

The history of distortion analysis is traced back to its origin in parallel compressor theory which was initially proposed in the late fifties. The development of this theory is reviewed up to its inclusion in the complex computer codes of today. It is found to be a very useful tool to guide development but not quantitative enough to predict compatibility. Dynamic or instantaneous distortion methodology is also reviewed from its origins in the sixties, to its current application in the eighties. Many of the requirements for interpreting instantaneous distortion are considered and illustrated. Statistical methods for predicting the peak distortion are described, and their limitations and advantages discussed. Finally, some Reynolds number and scaling considerations for inlet testing are considered. It is concluded that the deterministic instantaneous distortion methodology combined with distortion testing of engines with screens will remain the primary method of predicting compatibility for the near future. However, parallel compressor analysis and statistical peak distortion prediction will be important tools employed during the development of inlet/engine compatibility.

Bowditch, D. N.

A survey of inlet/engine distortion compatibility

The history of distortion analysis is traced back to its origin in parallel compressor theory which was initially proposed in the late fifties. The development of this theory is reviewed up to its inclusion in the complex computer codes of today. It is found to be a very useful tool to guide development but not quantitative enough to predict compatibility. Dynamic or instantaneous distortion methodology is also reviewed from its origins in the sixties, to its current application in the eighties. Many of the requirements for interpreting instantaneous distortion are considered and illustrated. Statistical methods for predicting the peak distortion are described, and their limitations and advantages discussed. Finally, some Reynolds number and scaling considerations for inlet testing are considered. It is concluded that the deterministic instantaneous distortion methodology combined with distortion testing of engines with screens will remain the primary method of predicting compatibility for the near future. However, parallel compressor analysis and statistical peak distortion prediction will be important tools employed during the development of inlet/engine compatibility. Previously announced in STAR as N83-27991

Bowditch, D. N.

Consistent approach to describing aircraft HIRF protection

The high intensity radiated fields (HIRF) certification process as currently implemented is comprised of an inconsistent combination of factors that tend to emphasize worst case scenarios in assessing commercial airplane certification requirements. By examining these factors which include the process definition, the external HIRF environment, the aircraft coupling and corresponding internal fields, and methods of measuring equipment susceptibilities, activities leading to an approach to appraising airplane vulnerability to HIRF are proposed. This approach utilizes technically based criteria to evaluate the nature of the threat, including the probability of encountering the external HIRF environment. No single test or analytic method comprehensively addresses the full HIRF threat frequency spectrum. Additional tools such as statistical methods must be adopted to arrive at more realistic requirements to reflect commercial aircraft vulnerability to the HIRF threat. Test and analytic data are provided to support the conclusions of this report. This work was performed under NASA contract NAS1-19360, Task 52.

Rimbey, P. R.

Method and data evaluation at NASA endocrine laboratory

The biomedical data of the astronauts on Skylab 3 were analyzed to evaluate the univariate statistical methods for comparing endocrine series experiments in relation to other medical experiments. It was found that an information storage and retrieval system was needed to facilitate statistical analyses.

Johnston, D. A.