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DOE OSTI2026

Measurements of three-flavor neutrino oscillations from a PISCES two-detector fit to the NOvA Experiment data

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA s primary physics goals are to measure the neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ with high precision, determine the neutrino mass hierarchy, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, primarily via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. Extracting values for oscillation parameters from fits to data usually relies on treating systematic uncertainties as nuisance parameters, a strategy that suffers from poor scalability as the number of uncertainties becomes larger. This work introduces PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics), a novel method that circumvents this scalability problem by encoding systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix. PISCES utilizes a nested minimization in which optimal systematic pulls are first computed using the covariance matrix in an inner minimization step, then the oscillation parameters are profiled over in the outer minimization. PISCES also uses a Poisson Likelihood term, making it ideal for the inclusion of low-statistic samples in the fits. PISCES is a flexible framework that also supports complex fits, such as a joint Near and Far detector fit. In the standard NOvA analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data indirectly constrain the FD prediction via a ratio method. PISCES, on the other hand, enables a simultaneous ND+FD fit, allowing the high-statistics ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. This thesis presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, details its implementation, and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method using the full NOvA 10-year data set. The results demonstrate that PISCES can successfully fit NOvA data while incorporating the constraints from the ND detectors consistently, using physically motivated systematic uncertainties to account for data/MC discrepancies.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

CADIS and FW-CADIS Variance Reduction in Gamma Transport for Predicting Prompt Forensics Signatures

The goal of prompt nuclear forensics is to determine the characteristics of a nuclear detonation based on the signatures available almost immediately after the explosion. An important characteristic is the reaction time history (RTH), a measure of the device’s rate of neutron multiplication. The RTH can be estimated by observation of the gamma radiation emitted from the detonation, which can be detected directly or observed indirectly as Teller light. Gamma transport simulations used to predict these radiation fields are often modeled stochastically using the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code, which can be a computationally demanding task due to the number of particle histories needed to achieve statistical convergence. In an attempt to improve the efficiency of these calculations, we evaluate two variance reduction techniques: Consistent Adjoint-Driven Importance Sampling (CADIS) and Forward-Weighted Consistent Adjoint-Driven Importance Sampling (FW-CADIS). These methods use a deterministically calculated adjoint flux to create weight windows and source biasing that guide MCNP sampling. We study the utility of CADIS and FW-CADIS for their use in MCNP gamma transport for nuclear forensics prediction simulations. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that both CADIS and FW-CADIS improve the accuracy for forensics-focused simulations, with CADIS being most beneficial in direct detection and FW-CADIS being ideal for computing a global Teller light source.

CADIS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Muon Antineutrino Charged-Current Interactions Without Mesons in the Final State, in the NOvA Near Detector

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino experiment based at Fermilab in the US, with the primary aim of measuring neutrino and antineutrino oscillations. This will enhance our understanding of electroweak interactions by measuring the neutrino mixing angles, CP-violating phase and neutrino mass ordering. To measure these oscillations, we first need to have a deep understanding of how neutrinos and antineutrinos interact with matter. Antineutrino interaction cross sections are, at present, particularly poorly constrained, and processes such as meson exchange currents are not well understood in the antineutrino sector. This analysis will develop a cross-section measurement of muon antineutrino interactions without mesons (e.g. pions or kaons) in the final state, in the NOvA near detector. A high-statistics, high-purity sample is obtained through a cut-based selection process implementing machine learning techniques. The sample is dominated by quasi-elastic and meson exchange current interactions which are sensitive to nuclear effects such as Final-State Interactions. The cross section will be extracted as a function of the incoming neutrino energy and the kinematics of the outgoing particles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Results from the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab

The goal of the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab is to measure the muon magnetic momentanomaly with a final accuracy of 140 parts per billion (ppb). The experiment has published tworesults based on the data collected in 2018 (Run-1) and 2019-2020 (Run-2/3), respectively. These results confirm the previous measurement performed 20 years ago at Brookhaven National Laboratory, and their combination reaches the unprecedented uncertainty of 200 ppb. This proceeding presents a brief overview of the Standard Model prediction for the muon g-2. It then summarizes the experimental measurement technique and the Run-1 and Run-2/3 measurements, detailing the improvements in their systematic and statistical uncertainties. Finally, it illustrates the comparison between theory and experiment and discusses future prospects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Muon Antineutrino Charged-Current Interactions without Mesons in the Final State, in the NOvA Near Detector

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Statistical White-Line Analysis in High-Throughput TXM-XANES for Chemical State Quantification

The transmission X-ray microscopy (TXM) based X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) technique provides three-dimensional mapping of element-specific chemical states at nanometer-scale spatial resolution and micrometer-scale fields of view. However, compared to conventional volume-averaged XANES (VA-XANES) measurements, the inherently small voxel size in TXM-XANES leads to a lower signal-to-noise ratio, making full-spectrum analysis computationally demanding and less robust. Here, we present the structural and compositional conditions for a statistical white-line analysis framework under which chemical state information can be directly extracted from the white-line peak position in voxel spectra without the need for voxel-wise background subtraction or normalization, under well-defined structural and compositional conditions. The method is validated on layered oxide cathode materials, where low-order polynomial fitting accurately reproduces white-line features, and the extracted energy distributions correlate strongly with VA-XANES results. This statistical approach enables high-throughput, dose-efficient, and noise-robust chemical state quantification in TXM-XANES, offering broad applicability to functional materials requiring nanoscale oxidation-state mapping.

TXM↗

DOE OSTI2024

Classification of events from α -induced reactions in the MUSIC detector via statistical and ML methods

The Multi-Sampling Ionization Chamber (MUSIC) detector is typically used to measure nuclear reaction cross sections relevant for nuclear astrophysics, fusion studies, and other applications. From the MUSIC data produced in one experiment scientists carefully extract an order of 10 3 events of interest from about 10 9 total events, where each event can be represented by an 18-dimensional vector. However, the standard data classification process is based on expert driven, manually intensive data analysis techniques that require several months to identify patterns and classify the relevant events from the collected data. Here, to address this issue, we present a method for the classification of events originating from specific α-induced reactions by combining statistical and machine learning methods that require significantly less input from the domain scientist, relative to the standard technique. Here, we applied the new method to two experimental data sets and compared our results with those obtained using traditional methods. With few exceptions, the number of events classified by our method agrees within ±20% with the results obtained using traditional methods. With the present method, which is the first of its kind for the MUSIC data, we have established the foundation for the automated extraction of physical events of interest from experiments using the MUSIC detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Search for dimuon resonance in the 35 to 75 GeV mass range using 140 fb−1 of 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A model-independent search for low-mass resonances decaying into pairs of oppositely charged muons is presented. The analysis uses proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1, recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider between 2015 and 2018. The search targets hypothetical dimuon resonances in the invariant mass range from 35 GeV to 75 GeV. The modelling of this mass region is particularly challenging for conventional analytic background parameterisations. To address this, a Gaussian process regression technique is used to model the background. The dimuon mass spectrum is analysed for potential signals, and no statistically significant excess is observed. Upper limits at the 95% confidence level are set on the fiducial production cross-section of new resonances decaying promptly into muons, ranging from 20 fb to 110 fb, depending on the resonance mass. These results are further interpreted in the context of dark-photon and dark-matter-mediator models, leading to new constraints on their parameter spaces.

Aad, G↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robust measurement of microbial reduction of graphene oxide nanoparticles using image analysis

ABSTRACT Shewanella oneidensis ( S. oneidensis ) has the capacity to reduce electron acceptors within a medium and is thus used frequently in microbial fuel generation, pollutant breakdown, and nanoparticle fabrication. Microbial fuel setups, however, often require costly or labor-intensive components, thus making optimization of their performance onerous. For rapid optimization of setup conditions, a model reduction assay can be employed to allow simultaneous, large-scale experiments at lower cost and effort. Since S. oneidensis uses different extracellular electron transfer pathways depending on the electron acceptor, it is essential to use a reduction assay that mirrors the pathways employed in the microbial fuel system. For microbial fuel setups that use nanoparticles to stimulate electron transfer, reduction of graphene oxide provides a more accurate model than other commonly used assays as it is a bulk material that forms flocculates in solutions with a large ionic component. However, graphene oxide flocculates can interfere with traditional absorbance-based measurement techniques. This study introduces a novel image analysis method for quantifying graphene oxide reduction, showing improved performance and statistical accuracy over traditional methods. A comparative analysis shows that the image analysis method produces smaller errors between replicates and reveals more statistically significant differences between samples than traditional plate reader measurements under conditions causing graphene oxide flocculation. Image analysis can also detect reduction activity at earlier time points due to its use of larger solution volumes, enhancing color detection. These improvements in accuracy make image analysis a promising method for optimizing microbial fuel cells that use nanoparticles or bulk substrates. IMPORTANCE Shewanella oneidensis ( S. oneidensis ) is widely used in reduction processes such as microbial fuel generation due to its capacity to reduce electron acceptors. Often, these setups are labor-intensive to operate and require days to produce results, so use of a model assay would reduce the time and expenses needed for optimization. Our research developed a novel digital analysis method for analysis of graphene oxide flocculates that may be utilized as a model assay for reduction platforms featuring nanoparticles. Use of this model reduction assay will enable rapid optimization and drive improvements in the microbial fuel generation sector.

Bennett, Danielle T. (ORCID:0009000188748827)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the effect of hypersonic boundary layer turbulence on antenna performance: A computational approach

The degradation of antenna performance during hypersonic re-entry is a well known phenomenon that can lead to complete radio blackout. Recent additions to the Empire code establish it as a tool for the study and analysis of the problem. Coupling to the Sandia Parallel Aerodynamics and Reentry Code (SPARC) enables the electromagnetic analysis of realistic re-entry plasma profiles. The geometric flexibility afforded by both Empire and SPARC allow the consideration of arbitrary vehicle and antenna configurations. We have used this tool to study antenna performance during re-entry when the boundary layer becomes turbulent. A concise description of line-of-sight transmissions, which employs advanced statistical methods, was developed. New insights into the low altitude reflectometer readings of RAM-C2 are offered. Techniques for the reconstruction of the re-entry plasma profile from reflectometer data were explored.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid chemical characterization of latent images in EUV resist with 12 nm half-pitch features

With the advancement of high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, the new platform will enable chipmakers to achieve critical dimensions of 8 nm. However, resist materials face significant challenges in delivering increased sensitivity while managing rising stochastic variations. We aim to develop comprehensive techniques to characterize the chemical profile of latent images, stored in EUV resists after exposure and postexposure baking, which is essential for understanding the origin of stochastic effects. Infrared photo-induced force microscopy (IR PiFM) is a bimodal atomic force microscopy technique combined with an infrared light source, allowing for simultaneous sub-5 nm topographic and chemical characterization within a localized environment. Critical-dimension resonant soft X-ray scatterometry (CD-RSoXS) provides statistical data that reveal structural and chemical information for comparative analysis. For the first time, IR PiFM has been used to chemically map the latent images of EUV resists (after exposure and postexposure baking) at a record high resolution of 12 nm half-pitch, enabling nondestructive analysis of patterns prior to development. Furthermore, CD-RSoXS offers direct experimental observation and comparison of exposed, postexposure baked, and developed patterns, which align with the IR PiFM results. We demonstrate that the IR PiFM technique offers valuable insights into both high spatial resolution and local chemical information simultaneously. In addition, CD-RSoXS provides statistical results that support our main findings. This hybrid metrology approach leverages a multifaceted dataset by combining the most reliable information from each source, which is essential for a comprehensive understanding of the stochastic effects in EUV lithography processes.

O’Reilly, Padraic↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction

Simulating the Earth's climate is an important and complex problem, thus climate models are similarly complex, comprised of millions of lines of code. In order to appropriately utilize the latest computational and software infrastructure advancements in Earth system models running on modern hybrid computing architectures to improve their performance, precision, accuracy, or all three; it is important to ensure that model simulations are repeatable and robust. This introduces the need for establishing statistical or non-bit-for-bit reproducibility, since bit-for-bit reproducibility may not always be achievable. Here, we propose a short-simulation ensemble-based test for an atmosphere model to evaluate the null hypothesis that modified model results are statistically equivalent to that of the original model. We implement this test in version 2 of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The test evaluates a standard set of output variables across the two simulation ensembles and uses a false discovery rate correction to account for multiple testing. The false positive rates of the test are examined using re-sampling techniques on large simulation ensembles and are found to be lower than the currently implemented bootstrapping-based testing approach in E3SM. We also evaluate the statistical power of the test using perturbed simulation ensemble suites, each with a progressively larger magnitude of change to a tuning parameter. The new test is generally found to exhibit more statistical power than the current approach, being able to detect smaller changes in parameter values with higher confidence.

Kelleher, Michael E. [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved Statistics for F-theory Standard Models

Much of the analysis of F-theory-based Standard Models boils down to computing cohomologies of line bundles on matter curves. By varying parameters one can degenerate such matter curves to singular ones, typically with many nodes, where the computation is combinatorial and straightforward. The question remains to relate the (a priori possibly smaller) value on the original curve to the singular one. In this work, we introduce some elementary techniques (pruning trees and removing interior edges) for simplifying the resulting nodal curves to a small collection of terminal ones that can be handled directly. When applied to the QSMs, these techniques yield optimal results in the sense that obtaining more precise answers would require currently unavailable information about the QSM geometries. This provides us with an opportunity to enhance the statistical bounds established in earlier research regarding the absence of vector-like exotics on the quark-doublet curve.

Bies, Martin↗

DOE OSTI2026

Single-shot picosecond pump coherent Rayleigh scattering thermometry

A single-shot coherent Rayleigh scattering (CRS) technique capable of measurement times less than 10 ns is presented. Here, the use of a mode-locked picosecond pump laser yields repeatable electrostrictive forcing compared to previous CRS experiments using unseeded nanosecond pump pulses, which are beset by shot-to-shot variations. Quantitative measurements are achieved by dispersing the CRS signal onto an EMCCD sensor using a virtually imaged phased array and comparing the experimental spectra to an existing kinetic model with a least-squares fitting routine. Measurements are demonstrated at ambient and low-pressure (2 Torr), low-temperature (100 K) conditions where the CRS measurement is within the collisionless regime. Single-shot statistics indicated precision and accuracy within 4% at ambient conditions and within 8% at low density and temperature conditions. This single-shot CRS technique is a powerful diagnostic tool with potential for multi-parameter measurements in complex flow environments, including high-speed aerodynamic ground test facilities.

Senior, William Charles Bowman [Sandia National La↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Progress toward hydro-equivalent ignition in OMEGA direct-drive DT-layered implosions

Considerable progress has been made in deuterium-tritium-layered implosion experiments on the OMEGA Laser System, bringing the prospects for thermonuclear ignition in direct-drive configurations with megajoule-class lasers closer to reality. Doing so has required navigating the balance between improved 1D performance and multidimensional stability. Using statistical modeling based on over 350 cryogenic implosions to identify various degradation mechanisms, and combined with multidimensional simulations and experimental techniques such as target offsets to combat residual flows, core conditions have repeatably been achieved that extrapolate to the burning-plasma state when scaled to 2.15 MJ of symmetric laser illumination. Using high implosion velocities (⁠> 450 km/s) and moderately high adiabats (⁠~5⁠), these experiments produced record-high scaled Lawson parameters in direct drive equal to 89 ± 2% of that required for ignition with expected yields of up to 1.5 ± 0.2 MJ. To improve these results still further, focused physics studies are performed to improve physics understanding and identify routes to even greater performance. Recent studies include investigations into the impact of mounting features, laser imprint, reduced fuel temperatures, and greater on-target intensities through subscale experiments. This manuscript gives a summary of the cryogenic direct-drive program on the OMEGA laser, including routes taken to achieve the current best performance, the status of recent focused physics investigations, and future designs—such as target solutions to laser imprint and reducing vapor density to increase convergence—that are expected lead to the demonstration of hydro-equivalent ignition on OMEGA.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Signal-preserving CMB component separation with machine learning

Analysis of microwave sky signals, such as the cosmic microwave background, often requires component separation using multifrequency methods, whereby different signals are isolated according to their different frequency behaviors. Many so-called blind methods, such as the internal linear combination (ILC), make minimal assumptions about the spatial distribution of the signal or contaminants, and only assume knowledge of the frequency dependence of the signal. The ILC produces a minimum-variance linear combination of the measured frequency maps. In the case of Gaussian, statistically isotropic fields, this is the optimal linear combination, as the variance is the only statistic of interest. However, in many cases the signal we wish to isolate, or the foregrounds we wish to remove, are non-Gaussian and/or statistically anisotropic (in particular for the case of Galactic foregrounds). In such cases, it is possible that machine learning (ML) techniques can be used to exploit the non-Gaussian features of the foregrounds and thereby improve component separation. However, many ML techniques require the use of complex, difficult-to-interpret operations on the data. We propose a hybrid method whereby we train an ML model using only combinations of the data that , and combine the resulting ML-predicted foreground estimate with the ILC solution to reduce the error from the ILC. We demonstrate our methods on simulations of extragalactic temperature and Galactic polarization foregrounds and show that our ML model can exploit non-Gaussian features, such as point sources and spatially varying spectral indices, to produce lower-variance maps than ILC—e.g., reducing the variance of the B-mode residual by factors of up to 5—while preserving the signal of interest in an unbiased manner. Moreover, we often find improved performance even when applying our ML technique to foreground models on which it was not trained. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

McCarthy, Fiona (ORCID:0000000253893565)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Searching for beyond the Standard Model physics using the improved description of 100 Mo $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay spectral shape with CUPID-Mo

The current experiments searching for neutrinoless double-β ($0\nu \beta \beta$) decay also collect large statistics of Standard Model allowed two-neutrino double-β ($2\nu \beta \beta$ ) decay events. These can be used to search for Beyond Standard Model (BSM) physics via $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay spectral distortions. 100 Mo has a natural advantage due to its relatively short half-life, allowing higher $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay statistics at equal exposures compared to the other isotopes. We demonstrate the potential of the dual read-out bolometric technique exploiting a 100 Mo exposure of 1.47 kg years, acquired in the CUPID-Mo experiment at the Modane underground laboratory (France). We set limits on $0\nu \beta \beta$ decays with the emission of one or more Majorons, on $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay with Lorentz violation, and $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay with a sterile neutrino emission. In this analysis, we investigate the systematic uncertainty induced by modeling the $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay spectral shape parameterized through an improved model, an effect never considered before. This work motivates searches for BSM processes in the upcoming CUPID experiment, which will collect the largest amount of $2\nu \beta \beta$ decay events among the next-generation experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗