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At least 127 records · Page 7

Fault isolation and fault-tolerant control for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy time-varying delay stochastic distribution systems

A fault isolation, estimation, and fault-tolerant control (FTC) scheme for nonlinear time-varying delay stochastic distribution control systems was presented in this paper. The Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model was adopted to approach the nonlinear dynamics of time-varying delay systems. According to the output equivalence principle and Laplace transformation, an augmented state vector was given to solve the time-varying delay problem. When multiple actuator faults and interference occur simultaneously, fault detection, isolation and fault estimation was designed to obtained the fault information. To decouple faults and obtain the value and location information of the fault, the system was separated into two parts through the designed multiple conversion matrices, in which one subsystem was only affected by one actuator fault. This has simplified the design of fault isolation and estimation. A adaptive observer for fault estimation was given. Then, fault information such as the time, location, and size was determined. The observer gain matrices were calculated using linear matrix inequality (LMI). When a fault was detected and diagnosed, a FTC algorithm was devised using the proportional-integral control scheme to compensate the fault as much as possible. It has been shown that even if multiple faults actuator occurred simultaneously, the FTC controller still ensured the output probability density function of the system traced the desired probability density function when a fault occurred. Finally, the expected results were obtained through the simulation example, which confirmed the effectiveness of the method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Effective field theory of stochastic diffusion from gravity

Planar black holes in AdS have long-lived quasinormal modes which capture the physics of charge and momentum diffusion in the dual field theory. How should we characterize the effective dynamics of a probe system coupled to the conserved currents of the dual field theory? Specifically, how would such a probe record the long-lived memory of the black hole and its Hawking fluctuations? We address this question by exhibiting a universal gauge invariant framework which captures the physics of stochastic diffusion in holography: a designer scalar with a gravitational coupling governed by a single parameter, the Markovianity index. We argue that the physics of gauge and gravitational perturbations of a planar Schwarzschild-AdS black hole can be efficiently captured by such designer scalars. We demonstrate that this framework allows one to decouple, at the quadratic order, the long-lived quasinormal and Hawking modes from the short-lived ones. It furthermore provides a template for analyzing fluctuating open quantum field theories with memory. In particular, we use this set-up to analyze the diffusive Hawking photons and gravitons about a planar Schwarzschild-AdS black hole and derive the quadratic effective action that governs fluctuating hydrodynamics of the dual CFT. Along the way we also derive results relevant for probes of hyperscaling violating backgrounds at finite temperature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Stochastic Reduced-Order Model for Statistical Microstructure Descriptors Evolution

Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been a crucial building block for modern materials development, relieving heavy reliance on experiments and significantly accelerating the materials design process. However, ICME models are also computationally expensive, particularly with respect to time integration for dynamics, which hinders the ability to study statistical ensembles and thermodynamic properties of large systems for long time scales. To alleviate the computational bottleneck, we propose to model the evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors as a continuous-time stochastic process using a non-linear Langevin equation, where the probability density function (PDF) of the statistical microstructure descriptors, which are also the quantities of interests (QoIs), is modeled by the Fokker–Planck equation. In this work, we discuss how to calibrate the drift and diffusion terms of the Fokker–Planck equation from the theoretical and computational perspectives. The calibrated Fokker–Planck equation can be used as a stochastic reduced-order model to simulate the microstructure evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors PDF. Considering statistical microstructure descriptors in the microstructure evolution as QoIs, we demonstrate our proposed methodology in three integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models: kinetic Monte Carlo, phase field, and molecular dynamics simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparing (stochastic-selection) ab initio multiple spawning with trajectory surface hopping for the photodynamics of cyclopropanone, fulvene, and dithiane

Ab Initio Multiple Spawning (AIMS) simulates the excited-state dynamics of molecular systems by representing nuclear wavepackets in a basis of coupled traveling Gaussian functions, called trajectory basis functions (TBFs). New TBFs are spawned when nuclear wavepackets enter regions of strong nonadiabaticity, permitting the description of non-Born–Oppenheimer processes. The spawning algorithm is simultaneously the blessing and the curse of the AIMS method: it allows for an accurate description of the transfer of nuclear amplitude between different electronic states, but it also dramatically increases the computational cost of the AIMS dynamics as all TBFs are coupled. Recently, a strategy coined stochastic-selection AIMS (SSAIMS) was devised to limit the ever-growing number of TBFs and tested on simple molecules. In this work, we use the photodynamics of three different molecules—cyclopropanone, fulvene, and 1,2-dithiane—to investigate (i) the potential of SSAIMS to reproduce reference AIMS results for challenging nonadiabatic dynamics, (ii) the compromise achieved by SSAIMS in obtaining accurate results while using the smallest average number of TBFs as possible, and (iii) the performance of SSAIMS in comparison to the mixed quantum/classical method trajectory surface hopping (TSH)—both in terms of its accuracy and computational cost. We show that SSAIMS can accurately reproduce the AIMS results for the three molecules considered at a much cheaper computational cost, often close to that of TSH. We deduce from these tests that an overlap-based criterion for the stochastic-selection process leads to the best agreement with the reference AIMS dynamics for the smallest average number of TBFs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

On Building Predictive Digital Twin Incorporating Wave Predicting Capabilities: Case Study on UMaine Experimental Campaign - FOCAL

The response of floating wind turbines (FWT) are susceptible to stochastic wave variations. For the optimal operation of FWT, a comprehensive understanding of the phaseresolved wave dynamics and the consequential system response is crucial for real-time monitoring and control. A multi-variate, multi-step, long short term memory (MLSTM), a type of recurrent neural network (RNN) is used to capture complex system dynamics for real-time application. Results indicate that the integration of a wave prediction-reconstruction (WRP) model substantially enhances prediction accuracy by 50% on average relative to the baseline model. The improvement is consistent across various wave extremity and prediction horizons, thereby significantly broadening the scope for timely and precise predictive capabilities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Learning in Modal Space: Solving Time-Dependent Stochastic PDEs Using Physics-Informed Neural Networks

One of the open problems in scientific computing is the long-time integration of nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), especially with arbitrary initial data. We address this problem by taking advantage of recent advances in scientific machine learning and the spectral dynamically orthogonal (DO) and borthogonal (BO) methods for representing stochastic processes. The recently introduced DO/BO methods reduce the SPDE to solving a system of deterministic PDEs and a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations. Specifically, we propose two new physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for solving time-dependent SPDEs, namely the neural network (NN)-DO/BO methods. The proposed methods incorporate the DO/BO constraints into the loss function (along with the modal decomposition of the SPDE) with an implicit form instead of generating explicit expressions for the temporal derivatives of the DO/BO modes. Hence, the NN-DO/BO methods can overcome some of the drawbacks of the original DO/BO methods. For example, we do not need the assumption that the covariance matrix of the random coefficients is invertible as in the original DO method, and we can remove the assumption of no eigenvalue crossing as in the original BO method. Moreover, the NN-DO/BO methods can be used to solve time-dependent stochastic inverse problems with the same formulation and same computational complexity as for forward problems. Furthermore, we demonstrate the capability of the proposed methods via several numerical examples, namely: (1) A linear stochastic advection equation with deterministic initial condition: we obtain good results with the proposed methods, while the original DO/BO methods cannot be applied directly in this case. (2) Long-time integration of the stochastic Burgers' equation: we show the good performance of NN-DO/BO methods, especially the effectiveness of the NN-BO approach for such problems with many eigenvalue crossings during the whole time evolution, while the original BO method fails. (3) Nonlinear reaction diffusion equation: we consider both the forward problem and the inverse problems, including very noisy initial point values, to investigate the flexibility of the NN-DO/BO methods in handling inverse and mixed type problems. Taken together, these simulation results demonstrate that the NN-DO/BO methods can be employed to effectively quantify uncertainty propagation in a wide range of physical problems, but future work should address the efficiency issue of PINNs for forward problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nonadiabatic transition paths from quantum jump trajectories

We present a means of studying rare reactive pathways in open quantum systems using transition path theory and ensembles of quantum jump trajectories. This approach allows for the elucidation of reactive paths for dissipative, nonadiabatic dynamics when the system is embedded in a Markovian environment. Here, we detail the dominant pathways and rates of thermally activated processes and the relaxation pathways and photoyields following vertical excitation in a minimal model of a conical intersection. We find that the geometry of the conical intersection affects the electronic character of the transition state as defined through a generalization of a committor function for a thermal barrier crossing event. Similarly, the geometry changes the mechanism of relaxation following a vertical excitation. Relaxation in models resulting from small diabatic coupling proceeds through pathways dominated by pure dephasing, while those with large diabatic coupling proceed through pathways limited by dissipation. The perspective introduced here for the nonadiabatic dynamics of open quantum systems generalizes classical notions of reactive paths to fundamentally quantum mechanical processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multi-Period Active Distribution Network Planning Using Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming and Nested Decomposition by SDDIP

This paper presents a multi-period active distribution network planning (ADNP) with distributed generation (DG). The objective of the proposed ADNP is to minimize the total planning cost, subject to both investment and operation constraints. The paper proposes a multi-stage stochastic optimization model to address DG uncertainties over several periods, in which the decisions are made sequentially by only using the present-stage information. A nested decomposition method is proposed which applies the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming (SDDIP) method to address computational intractabilities of the proposed ADNP approach. The presented numerical results and discussions on a 33-bus distribution system and a large-scale 906-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed ADNP method and its solution method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multilevel Analysis, Design, and Modeling of Coupling Advanced Nuclear Reactors and Thermal Energy Storage in an Integrated Energy System

This report discusses the different options for coupling thermal energy storage (TES) systems to advanced nuclear power plants (A-NPPs) in order to enable flexible and hybrid plant operation. An advanced light-water reactor (A LWR), a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) and a liquid-metal fast reactor (LMFR) were selected as the initial use cases for demonstrating a thermally balanced energy storage coupling design for thermal power extraction. The models presented herein showcase several design considerations, focusing on optimal deployment methodologies for achieving steady-state and transient-state operation with minimum disruption to the nuclear power cycle. This first part of the study presents steady-state models developed using Aspen HYSYS®, with the thermal energy bypass for NPP-TES coupling being varied at up to 50%. The various components were sized using the Aspen Process Economic Analyzer (APEA) and Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating (EDR), when applicable. Cost functions from these models were developed using the latest publicly available data obtained from APEA V11. The TES-coupled A-NPP steady-state models and cost functions then provided a baseline for dynamic operation and process optimization by using Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tools. A stochastic optimization of the various energy storage systems coupled to the A-NPPs was then performed using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and its dispatch optimization plugin, the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON). The signal processing and synthetic history capabilities of RAVEN were used to account for the unpredictable behavior of electricity markets. An autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to analyze price signals from the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) market and were applied to the HERON analysis in order to optimize a system with the best economics. Transient modeling evaluation was then performed using Modelica models within the HYBRID repository, which was developed at INL for the Department of Energy Integrated Energy Systems program for the characterization of dynamic integrated system behavior and feedback. This includes evaluation of the TES-coupled A-LWR systems’ impact on physical and thermal system response during imposed system demands. Additional TES-coupled reactor types, coupling approaches, markets, and TES technologies will be evaluated in future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Energy sector portfolio analysis with uncertainty

Governments are dealing with the challenge of how to efficiently invest in research and development portfolios related to energy technologies. Research and development investment decisions in the energy space are especially difficult due to numerous risks and uncertainties, and due to the complexity of energy's interactions with the broad economy. Historically, much of the U.S. Department of Energy's in-depth research and development analyses focused on assessing the impact of a research and development activity in isolation from other available opportunities and did not substantially consider risk and uncertainty. Endeavoring to combine integrated energy-economy modeling with uncertainty analysis and technology-specific research and development activities, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned the development of the Stochastic Energy Deployment System to support and improve public energy research and development decision-making. The Stochastic Energy Deployment System draws from expert-elicited probability distributions for research and development-driven improvements in technology cost and performance, and it uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the likelihood of outcomes within a system dynamics energy-economy model. The framework estimates the uncertain benefits and costs of various research and development portfolios and provides insight into the probability of meeting national technology goals, while accounting for interactions with the larger economy and for interactions among research and development investments spanning many energy sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Discrete generative diffusion models without stochastic differential equations: A tensor network approach

Diffusion models (DMs) are a class of generative machine learning methods that sample a target distribution by transforming samples of a trivial (often Gaussian) distribution using a learned stochastic differential equation. In standard DMs, this is done by learning a “score function” that reverses the effect of adding diffusive noise to the distribution of interest. Here we consider the generalisation of DMs to lattice systems with discrete degrees of freedom, and where noise is added via Markov chain jump dynamics. We show how to use tensor networks (TNs) to efficiently define and sample such “discrete diffusion models” (DDMs) without explicitly having to solve a stochastic differential equation. We show the following: (i) by parametrising the data and evolution operators as TNs, the denoising dynamics can be represented exactly; (ii) the auto-regressive nature of TNs allows to generate samples efficiently and without bias; (iii) for sampling Boltzmann-like distributions, TNs allow to construct an efficient learning scheme that integrates well with Monte Carlo. We illustrate this approach to study the equilibrium of two models with non-trivial thermodynamics, the d = 1 constrained Fredkin chain and the d = 2 Ising model. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Causer, Luke (ORCID:0000000194243473)↗

Forces from Stochastic Density Functional Theory under Nonorthogonal Atom-Centered Basis Sets

We develop a formalism for calculating forces on the nuclei within the linear-scaling stochastic density functional theory (sDFT) in a nonorthogonal atom-centered basis set representation (Fabian et al. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Comput. Mol. Sci. 2019, 9, e1412, 10.1002/wcms.1412) and apply it to the Tryptophan Zipper 2 (Trp-zip2) peptide solvated in water. We use an embedded-fragment approach to reduce the statistical errors (fluctuation and systematic bias), where the entire peptide is the main fragment and the remaining 425 water molecules are grouped into small fragments. We analyze the magnitude of the statistical errors in the forces and find that the systematic bias is of the order of 0.065 eV/Å (~1.2 × 10 -3 E h / a 0 ) when 120 stochastic orbitals are used, independently of system size. This magnitude of bias is sufficiently small to ensure that the bond lengths estimated by stochastic DFT (within a Langevin molecular dynamics simulation) will deviate by less than 1% from those predicted by a deterministic calculation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fluctuation–dissipation relation for a quantum Brownian oscillator in a parametrically squeezed thermal field

In this paper we study the nonequilibrium evolution of a quantum Brownian oscillator, modeling the internal degree of freedom of a harmonic atom or an Unruh–DeWitt detector, coupled to a nonequilibrium and nonstationary quantum field bath and inquire whether a fluctuation–dissipation relation (FDR) can exist after/if it approaches equilibration. This is a nontrivial issue because a squeezed field bath cannot reach equilibration and yet, as this work shows, the system oscillator indeed can, which is a necessary condition for FDRs. We discuss three different settings: (A) The bath field essentially remains in a squeezed thermal state throughout, whose squeeze parameter is a mode- and time-independent constant. This situation is often encountered in quantum optics and quantum thermodynamics. (B) The bath field is initially in a thermal state, but is subjected to a parametric process leading to mode- and time-dependent squeezing. This scenario is encountered in cosmology and dynamical Casimir effects. The squeezing in the bath in both types of processes will affect the oscillator’s nonequilibrium evolution. We show that at late times it approaches equilibration and this stationarity condition warrants the existence of a FDR. The trait of squeezing is marked by the oscillator’s effective equilibrium temperature, and the proportionality factor in the FDR is only related to the stationary component of the noise kernel of the bath field. Setting (C) is more subtle: A finite system–bath coupling strength can set the oscillator in a squeezed state even though the bath field is stationary and does not engage in any parametric process. The squeezing of the system in this case is in general time-dependent but becomes constant when the internal dynamics is fully relaxed. We begin with comments on the broad range of physical processes involving squeezed thermal baths and end with some remarks on the significance of FDRs in capturing the essence of quantum backreaction in nonequilibrium and stochastic systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A parallel discrete dislocation dynamics/kinetic Monte Carlo method to study non-conservative plastic processes

Non-conservative processes play a fundamental role in plasticity and are behind important macroscopic phenomena such as creep, dynamic strain aging, loop raft formation, etc. In the most general case, vacancy-induced dislocation climb is the operating unit mechanism. While dislocation/vacancy interactions have been modeled in the literature using a variety of methods, the approaches developed rely on continuum descriptions of both the vacancy population and its fluxes. However, there are numerous situations in physics where point defect populations display heterogeneous concentrations and/or non-smooth kinetics. Here, a kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) approach for modeling vacancy transport in response to arbitrary stress fields is used. Vacancies are treated as point particles and are coupled to the dislocation substructure representing a deformed material via an advection term defined by the local stress gradients. The stress fields and the dislocation substructure are evolved using a discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) module. To extend the coupled model to the treatment of large systems, we have implemented it in the massively-parallel DDD code ParaDiS. To avoid numerical incompatibilities associated with merging deterministic (DDD) and stochastic (kMC) integration algorithms, we cast the entire elasto-plastic-diffusive problem within a single stochastic framework, taking advantage of a parallel kMC algorithm to evolve the system as a single event-driven process. The large-scale implementation enables the study of the evolution of a variety of dislocation-defect scenarios governed by non-conservative transport kinetics. After carrying out an exhaustive numerical and computational analysis of our parallel algorithm, we show results that emphasize situations where inhomogeneous vacancy dynamics are of relevance, and compare discrete kinetics to continuum solutions for several cases.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Deterministic Quantum Trajectory via Imaginary Time Evolution

Stochastic quantum trajectories, such as pure state evolutions under unitary dynamics and random measurements, offer a crucial ensemble description of many-body open system dynamics. Recent studies have highlighted that individual quantum trajectories also encode essential physical information. Prominent examples include measurement-induced phase transitions, where a pure quantum state corresponding to fixed measurement outcomes (trajectories) exhibits distinct entanglement phases, depending on the measurement rate. However, direct observation of this effect is hindered by an exponential postselection barrier, whereby the probability of realizing a specific trajectory is exponentially small. We propose a deterministic method to efficiently prepare quantum trajectories in polynomial time using imaginary time evolution and, thus, overcome this fundamental challenge. Here, we demonstrate that our method applies to a certain class of quantum states, and argue that universal approaches do not exist for any quantum trajectories. Our result paves the way for experimentally exploring the physics of individual quantum trajectories at scale and enables direct observation of certain postselection-dependent phenomena.

Mittal, Shivan [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LA↗

From Coherence to Function: Exploring the Connection in Chemical Systems

The role of quantum mechanical coherences or coherent superposition states in excited state processes has received considerable attention in the last two decades largely due to advancements in ultrafast laser spectroscopy. These coherence effects hold promise for enhancing the efficiency and robustness of functionally relevant processes, even when confronted with energy disorder and environmental fluctuations. Understanding coherence deeply drives us to unravel mechanisms and dynamics controlled by order and synchronization at a quantum mechanical level, envisioning optical control of coherence to enhance functions or create new ones in molecular and material systems. In this frontier, the interplay between electronic and vibrational dynamics, specifically the influence of vibrations in directing electronic dynamics, has emerged as the leading principle. Here, two energetically disparate quantum degrees of freedom work in-sync to dictate the trajectory of an excited state reaction. Moreover, with the vibrational degree being directly related to the structural composition of molecular or material systems, new molecular designs could be inspired by tailoring certain structural elements. In the realm of chemical kinetics, our understanding of the dynamics of chemical transformations is underpinned by fundamental theories, such as transition state theory, activated rate theory, and Marcus theory. These theories elucidate reaction rates by considering the energy barriers that must be overcome for reactants to transform into products. Those barriers are surmounted by the stochastic nature of energy gap fluctuations within reacting systems, emphasizing that the reaction coordinate, the pathway from reactants to products, is not rigidly defined by a specific vibrational motion but encompasses a diverse array of molecular motions. While less is known about the involvement of specific intramolecular vibrational modes, their significance in certain cases cannot be overlooked. In this Account, we summarize key experimental findings that offer deeper insights into the complex electronic–vibrational trajectories encompassing excited states afforded from state-of-the-art ultrafast laser spectroscopy in three exemplary processes: photoinduced electron transfer, singlet–triplet intersystem crossing, and intramolecular vibrational energy flow in molecular systems. We delve into the rapid decoherence, or loss of phase and amplitude correlations, of vibrational coherences along promoter vibrations during subpicosecond intersystem crossing dynamics in a series of binuclear platinum complexes. This rapid decoherence illustrates the vibration-driven reactive pathways from the Franck–Condon state to the curve crossing region. We also explore the generation of new vibrational coherences induced by impulsive reaction dynamics rather than by the laser pulse in these systems, which sheds light on specific energy dissipation pathways and thereby on the progression of the reaction trajectory in the vicinity of the curve crossing on the product side. Another property of vibrational coherences, amplitude, reveals how energy can flow from one vibration to another in the electronic excited state of a terpyridine–molybdenum complex hosting a nonreactive dinitrogen substrate. In conclusion, a slight change in vibrational energy triggers a quasi-resonant interaction, leading to constructive wavepacket interference and ultimately intramolecular vibrational redistribution from a Franck–Condon active terpyridine vibration to a dinitrogen stretching vibration, energizing the dinitrogen bond.

Electrical energy↗

Real Time Predictive and Adaptive Hybrid Powertrain Control Development via Neuroevolution

The real-time application of powertrain-based predictive energy management (PrEM) brings the prospect of additional energy savings for hybrid powertrains. Torque split optimal control methodologies have been a focus in the automotive industry and academia for many years. Their real-time application in modern vehicles is, however, still lagging behind. While conventional exact and non-exact optimal control techniques such as Dynamic Programming and Model Predictive Control have been demonstrated, they suffer from the curse of dimensionality and quickly display limitations with high system complexity and highly stochastic environment operation. This paper demonstrates that Neuroevolution associated drive cycle classification algorithms can infer optimal control strategies for any system complexity and environment, hence streamlining and speeding up the control development process. Neuroevolution also circumvents the integration of low fidelity online plant models, further avoiding prohibitive embedded computing requirements and fidelity loss. This brings the prospect of optimal control to complex multi-physics system applications. The methodology presented here covers the development of the drive cycles used to train and validate the neurocontrollers and classifiers, as well as the application of the Neuroevolution process.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

235-F GoldSim Fate and Transport Model: Uncertainty Quantification

Building 235-F was configured with two missions in mind: Actinide Billet Line (ABL) and the fabrication of Pu-238 oxide for space program applications. ABL produced Np-237 billets for use in SRS reactors, whereas the design process, fabrication, and examination of Pu-238 oxide powder occurred within the following areas, respectively: Plutonium Experimental Facility (PEF), Plutonium Fuel Form (PuFF), and Old Metallography Lab (OML). By 1990 production ceased and by 2006 de-inventory occurred; however, assays have shown significant holdup remains within ABL and PuFF. As a result, 235-F is a Category 2 nuclear facility, with plans to undergo deactivation and decommission (D and D) via In-Situ Disposal (ISD). The purpose of this project is to ensure United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) groundwater radiation maximum contaminant level (MCL) and dosage standards are met during the D and D of 235-F by quantifying uncertainty through probabilistic modeling and evaluation of various ISD alternatives. GoldSim is a dynamic modeling software package with a graphical, object-oriented interface capable of capturing the influence of complex system input variability on probabilistic system outcomes. A GoldSim stochastic fate and transport model for 235-F was developed and matched with a PORFLOW deterministic model to simulate probabilistic release and flow of radionuclides from ABL and PuFF into the vadose zone, the Upper Three Runs (UTR) Aquifer, and UTR Creek. The GoldSim model was used to probabilistically evaluate four ISD scenarios against USEPA groundwater radiation MCLs and dosage standards. The deterministic 235-F GoldSim fate and transport model continues to be refined to match the results of the PORFLOW deterministic model to ensure the model accurately represents radionuclide movement through the groundwater system. The stochastic variables that are utilized within the GoldSim model are founded on the most current data; a conservative perspective is taken where needed. Alignment with the PORFLOW deterministic model, coupled with input stochastic variability, allows the probabilistic 235-F GoldSim model to capture the conservative breadth of possible outcomes for radionuclide fate within this particular system. This ensures that the USEPA MCLs and dosage limits hold even in the worst case scenarios.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗