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At least 127 records · Page 7

Urbanization-induced land and aerosol impacts on storm propagation and hail characteristics

Changes in land surface and aerosol characteristics from urbanization can affect dynamic and microphysical properties of severe storms, thus affecting hazardous weather events resulting from such storms such as hail and tornado. We examine the joint and individual effects of urban land and anthropogenic aerosols of Kansas City on a severe convective storm observed during the 2015 Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign, focusing on storm evolution, convective intensity, and hail characteristics. The simulations are carried out at the cloud-resolving scale (1 km) using a version of WRF-Chem in which the spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) is coupled with the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC). It is found that the urban land effect of Kansas City initiated a much stronger convective cell and the storm got further intensified when interacting with stronger turbulence induced by the urban land. The urban land effect also changed the storm path by diverting the storm toward the city mainly resulting from enhanced urban land-induced convergence in the urban area and around the urban-rural boundaries. The joint effect of urban land and anthropogenic aerosols enhances occurrences of both severe hail and significant severe hail by ~ 20% by enhancing hail formation and growth from riming. Overall the urban land effect on convective intensity and hail is relatively larger than the anthropogenic aerosol effect, but the joint effect is much notable than either of the individual effects, emphasizing the importance to consider both effects in evaluating urbanization effects.

Lin, Yun↗

Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard assessment is subject to the bias in TC climatology estimation from climate simulations or synthetic downscaling. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC rainfall hazard assessment induced by this bias using both rain gauge and radar observations and synthetic-storm-model-coupled TC rainfall simulations. We identify the storm’s maximum intensity, impact duration, and minimal distance to the site to be the three most important storm parameters for TC rainfall hazard, and the relationship between the important storm parameters and TC rainfall can be well captured by a physics-based TC rainfall model. The uncertainty in the synthetic rainfall hazard induced by the bias in TC climatology can be largely explained by the bias in the important storm parameters simulated by the synthetic storm model. Correcting the distribution of the most biased parameter may significantly improve rainfall hazard estimation. Bias correction based on the joint distribution of the important parameters may render more accurate rainfall hazard estimations; however, the general technical difficulties in resampling from high-dimensional joint probability distributions prevent more accurate estimations in some cases. The results of the study also support future investigation of the impact of climate change on TC rainfall hazards through the lens of future changes in the identified important storm parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The effects of storms and a transient sandy veneer on the interannual planform evolution of a low-relief coastal cliff and shore platform at Sargent Beach, Texas, USA

Coastal cliff erosion is alongshore-variable and episodic, with retreat rates that depend upon sediment as either tools of abrasion or protective cover. However, the feedbacks between coastal cliff planform morphology, retreat rate, and sediment cover are poorly quantified. This study investigates Sargent Beach, Texas, USA, at the annual to interannual scale to explore (1) the relationship between temporal and spatial variability in cliff retreat rate, roughness, and sinuosity and (2) the response of retreat rate and roughness to changes in sand and shell hash cover of the underlying mud substrate as well as the impact of major storms using field measurements of sediment cover, erosion, and aerial images to measure shore platform morphology and retreat. A storm event in 2009 increased the planform roughness and sinuosity of the coastal cliff at Sargent Beach. Following the storm, aerial-image-derived shorelines with annual resolution show a decrease in average alongshore erosion rates from 12 to 4 m yr –1 , coincident with a decrease in shoreline roughness and sinuosity (smoothing). Like the previous storm, a storm event in 2017 increased the planform roughness and sinuosity of the cliff. Over shorter timescales, monthly retreat of the sea cliff occurred only when the platform was sparsely covered with sediment cover on the shore platform, indicating that the tools and cover effects can significantly affect short-term erosion rates. The timescale to return to a smooth shoreline following a storm or roughening event, given a steady-state erosion rate, is approximately 24 years, with the long-term rate suggesting a maximum of ~107 years until Sargent Beach breaches, compromising the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) under current conditions and assuming no future storms or intervention. The observed retreat rate varies, both spatially and temporally, with cliff face morphology, demonstrating the importance of multi-scale measurements and analysis for interpretation of coastal processes and patterns of cliff retreat.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ring current particle distributions during the magnetic storms of 16-18 December 1971

In an effort to summarize the constrasting development of the stormtime ring currents during the December 16-18, 1971 magnetic storms, maps were drawn indicating the proton energy density spatial/temporal distributions. The maps contain distributions for the 5 to 138 keV protons for each of seven orbits. The first storm was not characteristic of a single substorm nor a fully developed magnetic storm, but it was comprised of a sudden commencement, a positive phase, and multiple substorms producing a small depression in the magnetic field. The second storm was classical in development with a short two hour growth phase. Energy density distribution constrasts for the two storms show the second storm displayed three dominant features over the first storm. They were: (1) the intensities were 2 1/2 times larger, (2) the depths of penetration were 1/2 to 1 Reynolds number lower, and (3) the distribution became symmetric.

Smith, P. H.↗

Solar radio continuum storms and a breathing magnetic field model

Radio noise continuum emissions observed in metric and decametric wave frequencies are, in general, associated with actively varying sunspot groups accompanied by the S-component of microwave radio emissions. These continuum emission sources, often called type I storm sources, are often associated with type III burst storm activity from metric to hectometric wave frequencies. This storm activity is, therefore, closely connected with the development of these continuum emission sources. It is shown that the S-component emission in microwave frequencies generally precedes, by several days, the emission of these noise continuum storms of lower frequencies. In order for these storms to develop, the growth of sunspot groups into complex types is very important in addition to the increase of the average magnetic field intensity and area of these groups. After giving a review on the theory of these noise continuum storm emissions, a model is briefly considered to explain the relation of the emissions to the storms.

Source record↗

Decameter storm radiation. I

A description is given of the evolution of six decametric storms which took place during the period from January to August, 1971. The storms described were observed with a swept frequency interferometer. The array consists of sixteen log-periodic antennas, equally spaced on a two mile east-west baseline. The association of storms with optical activity and photospheric fields is considered along with the relation of decametric storms to coronal magnetic fields and the association of storms with decimeter and meter wavelength activity. It is shown that decametric storms are always associated with storms at the meter and decimeter wavelengths.

Gergely, T. E.↗

North polar hood observations during Martian dust storms

The 1956, 1971, and 1973 major dust storms on Mars affected the apparent contrast and extent of the northern polar hood. A survey of photography from seven apparitions indicates that this seasonal feature is consistently prominent and identified in the absence of major storms throughout half of the Martian year. During the 1956 dust storm, the hood was not seen for a period of over one month on Lowell photographs. The effects of a storm are also seen in 1971 International Planetary Patrol photographs; the hood quickly became faint and tenuous even in ultraviolet light, which normally shows it as very bright. Patrol photographs of 1973 cover the complete progression from a prominent and extensive hood before the storm, to an intermittent disappearance at the height of the storm, to the subsequent return of a normal hood as the storm died out.

Martin, L. J.↗

Thermospheric storms and related ionospheric effects

A comparative study of thermospheric storms for equinox and winter conditions is presented based on neutral-composition measurements from the Aeros-A neutral-atmosphere temperature experiment. The main features of the two storms as inferred from changes in N2, Ar, He, and O are described, and their implications for current theories of thermospheric storms are discussed. On the basis of the study of the F-region critical frequency measured from a chain of ground-based ionospheric stations during the two storm periods, the general characteristics of the ionospheric storms and the traveling ionospheric disturbances are described. It is suggested that the positive and negative phases of ionospheric storms are different manifestations of thermospheric storms.

Chandra, S.↗

Aircraft measurements and analysis of severe storms: 1976 field experiment

Severe storm aircraft measurements are documented, as well as the instrumentation and operational features of aircraft mobility capabilities. The measurements and data analyses indicate that the concept of a highly mobile research aircraft capability for obtaining detailed measurements of wind, temperature, moisture, spherics, etc., near and within severe storm systems, forecast 48 hours in advance in a 1000 nm operating radius, is feasible, and was successfully demonstrated. The measurements and analyses reveal several severe storm features and insights with respect to storm air flow circulations and inflow-outflow orientation. Precipitation downdraft air is recirculated back into the updraft core below the scud cloud in both back and front feeder type storms. In a back feeder type storm, the downdraft outflow air ahead of the storm is also recirculated back into the updraft region near cloud base.

Sinclair, P. C.↗

An estimation of the condensation rates in three severe storm systems from satellite observations of the convective mass flux

A technique was developed for estimating the condensation rates of convective storms using satellite measurements of cirrus anvil expansion rates and radiosonde measurements of environmental water vapor. Three cases of severe convection in Oklahoma were studied and a diagnostic model was developed for integrating radiosonde data with satellite data. Two methods were used to measure the anvil expansion rates - the expansion of isotherm contours on infrared images, and the divergent motions of small brightness anomalies tracked on the visible images. The differences between the two methods were large as the storms developed, but these differences became small in the latter stage of all three storms. A comparison between the three storms indicated that the available moisture in the lowest levels greatly affected the rain rates of the storms. This was evident from both the measured rain rates of the storms and the condensation rates estimated by the model. The possibility of using this diagnostic model for estimating the intensities of convective storms also is discussed.

Mack, R. A.↗

Clearing the Martian air - The troubled history of dust storms

This note is an attempt to resolve some misconceptions regarding the historical record of the Martian atmospheric phenomena referred to as 'dust storms,' but often called yellow storms, yellow clouds, planetwide dust storms, global dust storms, great dust storms, etc. The known frequency of planet-encircling storms will be specifically addressed. Better knowledge of the sizes, frequencies, and locations of Martian dust storms is needed for atmospheric modeling and for future mission planning.

Martin, L. J.↗

Convective rain rates and their evolution during storms in a semiarid climate

The semiarid climate of the U.S. northern High Plains region has been studied with respect to rain rates and their evolution during summertime convective storms, using radar data from a total of 750 radar echo clusters. Analysis of this data suggests that the average rain rate R among storms is in a first approximation independent of the total rain volume, if the entire storm duration is considered in the averaging process. R primarily depends on the reflectivity threshold considered in calculating the area coverage integrated over the lifetime of the storm. R evolution during storms is analyzed by dividing each storm lifetime into 10 min, 1, 2, and 4 hours, as well as growing and decaying periods. The value of R remained independent of the total rain volume when the growing or decaying periods of storms were considered separately.

Doneaud, A. A.↗

Numerical simulations of the decay of Martian global dust storms

The decay of Martian global (great) dust storms is investigated. One-dimensional (vertical, static atmosphere) and two-dimensional (latitude-height, steady state circulation) simulations carried out with an aerosol transport-microphysical model indicate that atmospheric motions play a significant role in the observed decay of global dust storms. Spacecraft observations (Mariner 9, Viking) of the 1971 and the two 1977 planet-encircling dust storms have provided suggestions about some characteristics of storm decay. Specifically, the dust particle size distribution is inferred to have remained essentially unchanged for particles with radii between 1 and 10 microns during decay of the 1971 storm, and surface visible opacity declined quasi-exponentially with time in northern midlatitudes during the decay of the two 1977 storms. The results from this investigation indicate that two- and three-dimensional dynamical processes play a significant role the observed decay features of Martian global dust storms. The most important processes are the lofting of dust by vertical motions in the dust source region of the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and a continuing advective resupply of atmospheric dust into the dust sink regions of the Northern Hemisphere. This work has implications for Viking data analyses and future Mars observer observations and requires that the particle size distribution be treated as a time and latitude dependent quantity.

Murphy, James R.↗

Ionospheric storm effects at subauroral latitudes - A case study

An attempt is made to classify ionospheric storm effects at subauroral latitudes according to their presumed origin. The storm of December 7/8, 1982, serves as an example. It is investigated using ionosonde, electron content, and DE 2 satellite data. The following effects are distinguished: (1) positive storm effects caused by traveling atmospheric disturbances, (2) positive storm effects caused by changes in the large-scale thermospheric wind circulation, (3) positive storm effects caused by the expansion of the polar ionization enhancement, (4) negative storm effects caused by perturbations of the neutral gas composition, and (5) negative storm effects caused by the equatorward displacement of the trough region.

Proelss, G. W.↗

Cloud-to-ground lightning in a tornadic storm on 8 May 1986

The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) gathered Doppler radar and lightning ground strike data on a supercell storm that produced three tornadoes, including an F3 tornado in Edmond, Oklahoma, approximately 40 km north of NSSL. The Edmond storm formed 30 km ahead of a storm complex and developed its first and most damaging tornado just as the storm complex started to overtake it from the west. Lightning strike locations tended to concentrate just north of the mesocyclone, close to and inside a 50 dBZ reflectivity core. Positive ground flashes began just prior to the storm becoming tornadic, and positive flash rates peaked during the tornadic stage of the storm.

Macgorman, Donald R.↗

Simulations of phase space distributions of storm time proton ring current

We use results of guiding-center simulations of ion transport to map phase space densities of the stormtime proton ring current. We model a storm as a sequence of substorm-associated enhancements in the convection electric field. Our pre-storm phase space distribution is an analytical solution to a steady-state transport model in which quiet-time radial diffusion balances charge exchange. This pre-storm phase space spectra at L approximately 2 to 4 reproduce many of the features found in observed quiet-time spectra. Using results from simulations of ion transport during model storms having main phases of 3, 6, and 12 hr, we map phase space distributions from the pre-storm distribution in accordance with Liouville's theorem. We find stormtime enhancements in the phase space densities at energies E approximately 30-160 keV for L approximately 2.5 to 4. These enhancements agree well with the observed stormtime ring current. For storms with shorter main phases (approximately 3 hr), the enhancements are caused mainly by the trapping of ions injected from open night side trajectories, and diffusive transport of higher-energy (greater than or approximately 160 keV) ions contributes little to the stormtime ring current. However, the stormtime ring current is augmented also by the diffusive transport of higher-energy ions (E greater than or approximately 160 keV) durinng stroms having longer main phases (greater than or approximately 6 hr). In order to account for the increase in Dst associated with the formation of the stormtime ring current, we estimate the enhancement in particle-energy content that results from stormtime ion transport in the equatorial magnetosphere. We find that transport alone cannot account for the entire increase in absolute value of Dst typical of a major storm. However, we can account for the entire increase in absolute value of Dst by realistically increasing the stormtime outer boundary value of the phase space density relative to the quiet-time value. We compute the magnetic field produced by the ring current itself and find that radial profiles of the magnetic field depression resemble those obtained from observational data.

Chen, Margaret W.↗

Characterizing the Relationships Among Lightning and Storm Parameters: Lightning as a Proxy Variable

We have gained important insights from prior studies that have suggested relationships between lightning and storm growth, decay, convective rain flux, vertical distribution of storm mass and echo volume in the region, and storm energetics. A study was initiated in the Summer of 1996 to determine how total (in-cloud plus ground) lightning observations might provide added knowledge to the forecaster in the determination and identification of severe thunderstorms and weather hazards in real-time. The Melbourne Weather Office was selected as a primary site to conduct this study because Melbourne is the only site in the world with continuous and open access to total lightning (LDAR) data and a Doppler (WSR-88D) radar. A Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Demonstration (LISDAD) system was integrated into the forecaster's workstation during the Summer 1996 to allow the forecaster to interact in real-time with the multi-sensor data being displayed. LISDAD currently ingests LDAR data, the cloud-to-ground National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, and the Melbourne radar data in f real-time. The interactive features provide the duty forecaster the ability to perform quick diagnostics on storm cells of interest. Upon selection of a storm cell, a pop-up box appears displaying the time-history of various storm parameters (e.g., maximum radar reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, NLDN and LDAR lightning flash rates, storm-based vertically integrated liquid water content). This product is archived to aid on detailed post-analysis.

Goodman, S. J.↗

Estimates of Leonid Storm Probabilities and Fluxes from Historical Information

We have analyzed accounts of Leonid storms and showers occurring near the 33 year resonance to derive probabilities of the occurrence of Leonid storms as a function of time since comet nodal passage and distance to the orbit of the particle stream. Based on this analysis, we have obtained the following storm probabilities for the coming apparition: 1997 - 33%, 1998 - 60%, 1999 - 100%, and 2000 - 25%. 95% confidence bands are also computed for these years. An expression for the Leonid storm flux is derived using a simple velocity-corrected ZHR scaling to the sporadic flux, which is then compared to that obtained from observations of the 1966 Leonid storm. The two results agree to within a factor of five, provided the Kessler meteor mass-magnitude relation is used. If the Jenniskens mass-magnitude relation is adopted, then the results are more disparate, disagreeing by a full order of magnitude. From the standpoint of spacecraft risk, it would make sense to choose the more conservative of the two relations, so the expression for the Leonid storm flux is F(sub storm) = 3x 10(exp 19) ZHR m(exp -1.3), where m, the meteoroid mass, is in grams, and the flux is in units of # /m2s. Based on the historical record, we are expecting Leonid ZHR's somewhere between 1000 and 5000 in 1998 and 1999.

Cooke, William J., Jr.↗