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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Interferometric SAR modelling of near surface data to improve geological model in the Surat Basin, Australia

Here we present a study on geophysical inverse modelling for subsurface structural properties of an unconventional hydrocarbon site that was monitored previously by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology for surface deformation. A static three-dimensional geomodel along with extracted property maps replicates the depth of each underlying stratigraphic unit and structural feature with the density of each geological layer. We examine the hypothesis that integration of elastic properties of each formation layer with InSAR observations in a stratified elastic medium will lead to a viscoelastic geophysical inverse problem that can be solved to estimate fractional volume change at the reservoir level. Moreover, we examine synthetic scenarios in which the elastic properties of the formations are perturbed before determining the resulting impact on the rate of surface deformation. The results show that although the slope of underlying formations, their density and depth can define the extent and pattern of a deformation signal, their properties have a marginal impact on volumetric change compared to the dense network of shallow depth Coal Seam Gas (CSG) mining wells. Besides, it is also demonstrated that the inversion of InSAR deformation maps can resolve the uncertainties associated with low-resolution seismic interpretation as well as filling the data gaps within seismic acquisitions. A significant contribution of this investigation to the geological basin modelling involves a) introducing a remote and non-invasive technology such as InSAR to improve geophysical mapping of subsurface structures such as faults in areas with sparse or no reflective seismic information, and b) applying a multi-layer viscoelastic geophysical source model for an unconventional hydrocarbon reservoir such as CSG.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

pnnl/JAX-CanVeg

Differentiable land surface model reimplementing an existing simulator, CANOAK, in JAX—a Google-developed Python package for high-performance machine learning research using automatic differentiation. The model's purpose is to perform hybrid land surface modeling that seamlessly couples process-based components with deep neural networks

Jiang, Peishi↗
DOE OSTI2024

DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology

Abstract. Vegetation phenology plays a key role in controlling the seasonality of ecosystem processes that modulate carbon, water and energy fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate modelling of vegetation phenology in the interplay of Earth's surface and the atmosphere is thus crucial to understand how the coupled system will respond to and shape climatic changes. Phenology is controlled by meteorological conditions at different timescales: on the one hand, changes in key meteorological variables (temperature, water, radiation) can have immediate effects on the vegetation development; on the other hand, phenological changes can be driven by past environmental conditions, known as memory effects. However, the processes governing meteorological memory effects on phenology are not completely understood, resulting in their limited performance of vegetation phenology represented in land surface models. A deep learning model, specifically a long short-term memory network (LSTM), has the potential to capture and model the meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology. Here, we apply the LSTM to model the vegetation phenology using meteorological drivers and high-temporal-resolution canopy greenness observations through digital repeat photography by the PhenoCam network. We compare a multiple linear regression model, a no-memory-effect LSTM model and a full-memory-effect LSTM model to predict the whole seasonal greenness trajectory and the corresponding phenological transition dates across 50 sites and 317 site years during 2009–2018, covering deciduous broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands. Results show that the deep learning model outperforms the multiple linear regression model, and the full-memory-effect LSTM model performs better than the no-memory-effect model for all three plant function types (median R2 of 0.878, 0.957 and 0.955 for broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands). We also find that the full-memory-effect LSTM model is capable of predicting the seasonal dynamic variations of canopy greenness and reproducing trends in shifting phenological transition dates. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the full-memory-effect LSTM model to assess its plausibility, revealing its coherence with established knowledge of vegetation phenology sensitivity to meteorological conditions, particularly changes in temperature. Our study highlights that (1) multi-variate meteorological memory effects play a crucial role in vegetation phenology, and (2) deep learning opens up new avenues for improving the representation of vegetation phenological processes in land surface models via a hybrid modelling approach.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerated Cu2O Reduction by Single Pt Atoms at the Metal-Oxide Interface§

The reducibility of metal oxides, when serving as the catalyst support or the active sites themselves, plays an important role in heterogeneous catalytic reactions. Here we present an integrated experimental and theoretical study that reveals how the addition of small amounts of atomically dispersed Pt at the metal/oxide interface dramatically enhances the reducibility of a Cu2O thin film by H2. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and temperature-programmed desorption (TPD) results reveal that upon oxidation, a PtCu single-atom alloy (SAA) surface is covered by a thin Cu2O film and is therefore unable to dissociate H2. Despite this, in situ studies using ambient pressure (AP) XPS reveal that the presence of a small amount of Pt under the oxide layer can, at the single-atom limit, promote the reduction of Cu2O by H2 at room temperature. We build two density functional theory based surface models to better understand these experimental findings: A Cu2O/Cu(111)-like surface oxide layer, known as the ‘29’ oxide, in which Pt is alloyed into the Cu(111) surface as well as a PtCu SAA. Our calculations suggest that the increased activity is due to the presence of atomically dispersed Pt under the surface oxide layer, which weakens the Cu-O bonds in its immediate vicinity, thus making the interface between subsurface Pt and the surface oxide a nucleation site for the formation of metallic Cu. This initial step in the reduction process results in the presence of surface Pt atoms surrounded by metallic Cu patches, and the Pt atoms become active in H2 dissociation, which consequently accelerates the reduction of the oxide layer. This work demonstrates how isolated Pt atoms at the metal/oxide interface of a Cu-based catalyst accelerate the reduction of the oxide and, therefore, helps maintain the active, reduced state of the catalyst under reaction conditions, as is required for the synthesis of methanol from CO2 hydrogenation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Boundary Conditions for Coupled Geospace Models: An Application in Modeling Spacecraft Surface Charging Environment

Abstract Spacecraft surface charging in the inner magnetosphere often occurs in the pre‐midnight to the dawn sector when electron fluxes of tens of keV increase. Inner magnetosphere ring current models can be used to simulate/predict the spacecraft surface charging environment, with their outer boundary conditions specified either based on observations or provided by other models, such as MHD models. In the latter approach, using MHD quantities, the flux spectrum at the outer boundary is commonly assumed to follow a Kappa or Maxwellian distribution function. Such a method however often departs greatly from the realistic spectrum at E < tens of keV, a crucial energy range in the surface charging anomaly. In order to achieve a better representation of the surface charging environment, we propose to combine the MHD‐parameterized flux spectrum with an empirical electron flux model of E < 40 keV to set the electron flux boundary condition. Results indicate that as opposed to the case where the MHD‐parameterized flux distribution is solely used at the model boundary, simulations with the new boundary condition yields a more intense surface charging environment. The integrated electron flux between 10 < E < 50 keV, a measure of the severity of the surface charging environment, is significantly enhanced by 1‐2 orders of magnitude, leading to a much better agreement with Van Allen Probes measurements. This study hence demonstrates a reasonable solution to the setting of outer boundary conditions for inner magnetosphere models and is recommended for coupled geospace circulation models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Vegetation Assimilation on Flash Drought Characteristics across the Continental United States

Predicting and managing the impacts of flash droughts is difficult owing to their rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought monitoring often relies on assessing changes in root-zone soil moisture. However, the lack of widespread soil moisture measurements means that flash drought assessments often use process-based model data like that from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Such reliance opens flash drought assessment to model biases, particularly from vegetation processes. Here, we examine the influence of vegetation on NLDAS-simulated flash drought characteristics by comparing two experiments covering 1981–2017: open loop (OL), which uses NLDAS surface meteorological forcing to drive a land surface model using prognostic vegetation, and data assimilation (DA), which instead assimilates near-real-time satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) into the land surface model. The OL simulation consistently underestimates LAI across the United States, causing relatively high soil moisture values. Both experiments produce similar geographic patterns of flash droughts, but OL produces shorter duration events and regional trends in flash drought occurrence that are sometimes opposite to those in DA. Across the Midwest and Southern United States, flash droughts are 4 weeks (about 70%) longer on average in DA than OL. Moreover, across much of the Great Plains, flash drought occurrence has trended upward according to the DA experiment, opposite to the trend in OL. This sensitivity of flash drought to the representation of vegetation suggests that representing plants with greater fidelity could aid in monitoring flash droughts and improve the prediction of flash drought transitions to more persistent and damaging long-term droughts.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Parallel Kinetic Model for Surface and Bulk Charge Storage in ε -MnO 2 Pseudocapacitors

Pseudocapacitive materials such as manganese dioxide (MnO 2 ) are attractive for energy storage applications due to their ability to combine the fast kinetics of capacitors with the higher energy density of battery-type systems. However, the electrochemical behavior of MnO 2 remains difficult to interpret mechanistically, in part because existing models often fail to distinguish between surface-based redox processes and bulk intercalation mechanisms. In this work, we develop a physics-based model that represents MnO 2 pseudocapacitance as a linear combination of two independent, parallel electrochemical processes: (i) the surface or near-surface redox storage and (ii) lithium ion intercalation into the bulk material. These two processes are treated with distinct kinetic and thermodynamic parameters and are assumed to proceed independently. The total measured current is assumed to be the sum of these two partial currents. We validate the model using rate-dependent cyclic voltammetry experiments, demonstrating that it captures key trends and provides physically interpretable parameters reflecting the relative contributions of surface and bulk processes. By enabling a clear separation between these mechanisms, the model offers a useful framework for analyzing pseudocapacitive materials and can guide the rational design of high-performance energy storage electrodes.

Energy - Storage↗
DOE OSTI2025

Representing lateral groundwater flow from land to river in Earth system models

Lateral groundwater flow (LGF) is an important hydrologic process in controlling water table dynamics. Due to the relatively coarse spatial resolutions of land surface models, the representation of this process is often overlooked or overly simplified. In this study, we developed a hillslope-based lateral groundwater flow model. Specifically, we first developed a hillslope definition model based on an existing watershed delineation model to represent the subgrid spatial variability in topography. Building upon this hillslope definition, we then developed a physical-based lateral groundwater flow using Darcy’s equation. This model explicitly considers the relationships between the groundwater table along the hillslope and the river water table levels. We coupled this intra-grid model to the land component (E3SM Land Model: ELM) and river component (MOdel for Scale Adaptive River Transport: MOSART) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We tested both the hillslope definition model and the lateral groundwater flow model and performed sensitivity experiments using different configurations. Simulations for a single grid cell at 0.5°×0.5° within the Amazon basin show that the definition of hillslope is the key to modeling lateral flow processes and the runoff partition between surface and subsurface can be dramatically changed using the hillslope approach. Although our method provides a pathway to improve the lateral flow process, future improvements are needed to better capture the subgrid structure to account for the spatial variability in hillslopes within the simulated grid of land surface models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling land surface processes over a mountainous rainforest in Costa Rica using CLM4.5 and CLM5

This study compares the performance of the Community Land Models (CLM4.5 and CLM5) against tower and ground measurements from a tropical montane rainforest in Costa Rica. The study site receives over 4000 mm of mean annual precipitation and has high daily levels of relative humidity. The measurement tower is equipped with eddy-covariance and vertical profile systems able to measure various micrometeorological variables, particularly in wet and complex terrain. In this work, results from point-scale simulations for both CLM4.5 and its updated version (CLM5) are compared to observed canopy flux and micrometeorological data. Both models failed to capture the effects of frequent rainfall events and mountainous topography on the variables of interest (temperatures, leaf wetness, and fluxes). Overall, CLM5 alleviates some errors in CLM4.5, but CLM5 still cannot precisely simulate a number of canopy processes for this forest. Soil, air, and canopy temperatures, as well as leaf wetness, remain too sensitive to incoming solar radiation rates despite updates to the model. As a result, daytime vapor flux and carbon flux are overestimated, and modeled temperature differences between day and night are higher than those observed. Slope effects appear in the measured average diurnal variations of surface albedo and carbon flux, but CLM5 cannot simulate these features. This study suggests that both CLMs still require further improvements concerning energy partitioning processes, such as leaf wetness process, photosynthesis model, and aerodynamic resistance model for wet and mountainous regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrocarbon, Oxidation, Dehydrogenation and Coupling Over Model Metal Oxide Surfaces

Final report for a 24.5 year single investigator project aimed at understanding structure/function relationships in adsorption and reaction on metal oxide surfaces for understanding heterogeneous catalysis. An experimental surface science approach was taken using single crystal surfaces as model catalysts and supplemented by density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Materials studied experimentally and computationally include the base metal oxide SnO 2 and transition metal oxides α-Cr 2 O 3 , α-Fe 2 O 3 and MnO.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Water foraging with dynamic roots in E3SM; The role of roots in terrestrial ecosystem memory on intermediate timescales (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems can show sustained responses to stress events that may last for years after the initial perturbation. This phenomenon is referred to as legacy or memory and it emerges from a set of ecosystem processes that are poorly captured by Earth System and Land Surface Models. Consequently, these models struggle to predict the impact that extreme climate events have on surface energy, carbon and hydrological exchange once a stressor such as drought has relaxed or in response to repeated exposure to stress. In this project, we set out to test how the addition of dynamic root profiles in land surface models impact the capacity for Earth System Models, such as the Department of Energy’s E3SM, to capture realistic legacy effects. Observations have shown that vegetation shifts their root profiles during stress events to forage for water and these altered root profiles may take years to relax back to the initial state. We hypothesized that the alteration of the belowground root structures may be a source of terrestrial ecosystem legacy that is missing from models. To test this idea we undertook three core activities. (1) We developed a global-scale analysis of the impact of dynamic roots on ecosystem legacy building from a recently developed dynamic root module. (2) We developed new root dynamics in the DOE’s Energy Land Model (ELM) that allowed not only root profiles to shift their profile but also simultaneously alter carbon allocation to fine root pools. We then tested the impact of these new dynamics with intensive sensitivity analysis at four long-term AmeriFlux sites. (3) We undertook detailed isotopic analysis of tree rings from these AmeriFlux sites to assess ecophysiological and ecohydrological legacy to stress events that can be used to benchmark the sensitivity experiments with ELM. From these core activities, we report the following key findings. Firstly, on a global scale, the addition of dynamic roots led to chronically water-stressed ecosystems recovering faster to climate stress while wetter ecosystem showed enhanced legacy. This is because across ecosystems, stress events were almost universally associated with water shortages that led to the development of deeper root profiles. These deeper root profiles proved beneficial for recovery from drought stress. While the root dynamics did not universally improve the modeled representation of legacy it showed complex transient dynamics that emerge from the addition of dynamic roots. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis illustrated long term shifts in rooting depths away from the prescribed default profile suggesting that initializing of root profiles could benefit from spin-up simulations that converge on locally optimized root profiles. In addition, by enabling dynamic allocation some of the sites predicted unrealistically low allocation to roots (and high allocation to leaves). While these changes did not dramatically alter modeled gross primary productivity, they illustrated that without more sophisticated root processes in models, there is little penalty to dramatically disinvest in roots. Thirdly, the isotopic analysis of tree rings showed highly distinct legacy responses across species and sites. For example, T. canadensis showed reduced transpiration the year after stress events illustrated by sustained elevated $\delta^{18}$O. In contrast, A saccharum displayed elevated $\delta^{13}$C associated with reduced stomatal conductance in response to the previous years’ stress event. These geochemical signatures of legacy were present despite tree growth returning to normal the year after the stress. The results show the importance of species-level dynamics in legacy that are absent in modeling that assumes common traits within plant functional types. In summary, the work here established new avenues to explore root dynamics in models while illustrating how additional root processes are needed before dynamic carbon allocation can be implemented. Lastly, this project provided mentorship to a postdoctoral fellow, training for an early career scientist and multiple undergraduate students recruited from a minority serving institution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microstructure-Sensitive modeling of surface roughness and notch effects on extreme value fatigue response

Fatigue life knockdown due to surface roughness induces local stress concentrations. Physical fatigue experiments are crucial to qualify materials for use but are limited in their capability to examine the mechanisms underlying the fatigue crack formation driving force due to these stress concentrations. Microstructure-sensitive computational models can aid in this regard and are employed in this work to examine the effects of surface roughness in Al 7075-T6. Digital microstructure models are subjected to crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) simulations to examine the combined effects of microstructure and grain scale asperities on the driving force for fatigue crack formation. Following elastic–plastic shakedown, mesoscale volume-averaged fatigue indicator parameters (FIPs) are computed within fatigue damage process zones of grains. An increase in the intensity of realistic surface roughness profiles corresponds accordingly to larger FIPs but it is difficult to precisely interpret the mechanisms and effects of this intensification. We thus parametrically investigate surface asperities that couple with microstructure and lack of constraint on slip at the free surface to describe microstructure-sensitive surface roughness knockdown effects on fatigue resistance. The depth of a single valley (i.e., notch) due to surface roughness is found to be more detrimental to fatigue resistance than the radius (i.e., notch width, not to be confused with notch acuity). Finally, we also find that different crystallographic textures, grain morphologies, and number of sampled grains have a limited effect on the depth of influence of these notches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

WRF-ELM v1.0: a regional climate model to study land–atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous land use regions

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) is a state-of-the-art land surface model that simulates the intricate interactions between the terrestrial land surface and other components of the Earth system. Originating from the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, ELM has been under active development, with added new features and functionality, including plant hydraulics, radiation–topography interaction, subsurface multiphase flow, and more explicit land use and management practices. This study integrates ELM v2.1 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; WRF-ELM) model through a modified Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) framework, enabling affordable high-resolution regional modeling by leveraging ELM's innovative features alongside WRF's diverse atmospheric parameterization options. This framework includes a top-level driver for variable communication between WRF and ELM and Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) caps for the WRF atmospheric component and ELM workflow control, encompassing initialization, execution, and finalization. Importantly, this LILAC–ESMF framework demonstrates a more modular approach compared to previous coupling efforts between WRF and land surface models. It maintains the integrity of ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future developments in ELM to WRF-ELM. To test the ability of the coupled model to capture land–atmosphere interactions over regions with a variety of land uses and land covers, we conducted high-resolution (4 km) WRF-ELM ensemble simulations over the Great Lakes region (GLR) in the summer of 2018 and systematically compared the results against observations, reanalysis data, and WRF-CTSM (WRF coupled with the Community Terrestrial Systems Model). In general, the coupled WRF-ELM model has reasonably captured the spatial distribution of surface state variables and fluxes across the GLR, particularly over the natural vegetation areas. The evaluation results provide a baseline reference for further improvements in ELM in the regional application of high-resolution weather and climate predictions. Our work serves as an example to the model development community for expanding an advanced land surface model's capability to represent fully-coupled land–atmosphere interactions at fine spatial scales. The development and release of WRF-ELM marks a significant advancement for the ELM user community, providing opportunities for fine-scale regional representation, parameter calibration in coupled mode, and examination of new schemes with atmospheric feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Representing Grasslands Using Dynamic Prognostic Phenology Based on Biological Growth Stages: Part 2. Carbon Cycling

Grasslands are one of the most widely distributed and abundant vegetation types globally, and land surface models struggle to accurately simulate grassland carbon dioxide, energy, and water fluxes. Here we hypothesize that this is due to land surface models having difficulties in reproducing grassland phenology, in particular in response to the seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation. Using leaf area index (LAI), net primary productivity, and flux data at 55 sites spanning climate zones, the aim of this study is to evaluate a novel prognostic phenology model (Simple Biosphere Model, SiB4) while simultaneously illustrating grassland relationships across precipitation gradients. Evaluating from 2000 to 2014, SiB4 predicts daily LAI, carbon, and energy fluxes with root-mean-square errors < 15% and individual biases <10%; however, not including management likely reduces its performance. Grassland mean annual LAI increases linearly with mean annual precipitation, with both SiB4 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) showing a 0.13 increase in LAI per 100-mm increase in precipitation. Both gross primary production and ecosystem respiration increase with growing season length by ~8.5 g C m -2 per day, with SiB4 and Fluxnet estimates within 18%. Despite differences in mean annual precipitation and growing season length, all grassland sites shift to seasonal carbon sinks one month prior to peak uptake. During a U.S. drought, MODIS and SiB4 had nearly identical LAI responses, and the LAI change due to drought was less than the LAI change across the precipitation gradient, indicating that grassland drought response is not as strong as the overlying climate response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce. In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-based integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM's parameterized representation of total runoff. Results show that (1) ELM's total runoff was the same order of magnitude as the ATS simulations, and both models were similarly variable over time; (2) minor adjustments to coefficients in ELM's runoff parameterization improved the match between the ATS simulation and ELM's parameterized representation of annual and seasonal total runoff; (3) overall, runoff responses in ATS and ELM are more similar in flat hillslope environments compared to steep hillslopes; and (4) shallower active layer thicknesses and higher precipitation simulations resulted in lower correlations between the two models due to greater total runoff. By incorporating the optimized runoff coefficients from the Sagavanirktok River basin into ELM, the simulated total runoff better matched the streamflow observations at a small watershed located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Our findings revealed important insights into the effectiveness of runoff parameterizations in land surface models and pathways for improving runoff coefficients in typical Arctic regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of simulated soil carbon dynamics in Arctic-Boreal ecosystems

Given the magnitude of soil carbon stocks in northern ecosystems, and the vulnerability of these stocks to climate warming, land surface models must accurately represent soil carbon dynamics in these regions. We evaluate soil carbon stocks and turnover rates, and the relationship between soil carbon loss with soil temperature and moisture, from an ensemble of eleven global land surface models. We focus on the region of NASA's Arctic-Boreal vulnerability experiment (ABoVE) in North America to inform data collection and model development efforts. Models exhibit an order of magnitude difference in estimates of current total soil carbon stocks, generally under- or overestimating the size of current soil carbon stocks by greater than 50 PgC. We find that a model's soil carbon stock at steady-state in 1901 is the prime driver of its soil carbon stock a hundred years later—overwhelming the effect of environmental forcing factors like climate. The greatest divergence between modeled and observed soil carbon stocks is in regions dominated by peat and permafrost soils, suggesting that models are failing to capture the frozen soil carbon dynamics of permafrost regions. Using a set of functional benchmarks to test the simulated relationship of soil respiration to both soil temperature and moisture, we find that although models capture the observed shape of the soil moisture response of respiration, almost half of the models examined show temperature sensitivities, or Q10 values, that are half of observed. Significantly, models that perform better against observational constraints of respiration or carbon stock size do not necessarily perform well in terms of their functional response to key climatic factors like changing temperature. This suggests that models may be arriving at the right result, but for the wrong reason. The results of this work can help to bridge the gap between data and models by both pointing to the need to constrain initial carbon pool sizes, as well as highlighting the importance of incorporating functional benchmarks into ongoing, mechanistic modeling activities such as those included in ABoVE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗