Results for “Surrogate Modeling” — Page 7

NASA NTRS2022

Model Spread in Tropical Low Cloud Feedback Tied to Overturning Circulation Response to Warming

Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2015

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approx. 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approx. 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This report documents the outcome of the assessment.

Steven J Gentz↗

NASA NTRS2015

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (~9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approximately 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

Steven J Gentz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part II: Integrated Vehicle

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) thermal management system (TMS) relies on four loop heat pipes (LHPs) to transport electronic waste heat to the vehicle cooling radiative surface and avoid overheating. The TMS has also ten constant conductance heat pipes (CCHPs) dedicated to balance the thermal load within the internal environment where the avionics boxes are mounted, also called warm electronic box (WEB), and to transport the heat from two of the science payload instruments. The TMS also uses two thermal straps to thermally link the batteries to the WEB. These thermal components, in addition to heaters, thermostat, multi-layer insulation (MLIs), and isolators forms the core of the VIPER TMS. The complex heat transport balance managed by the TMS is challenging to characterize and model. The more fidelity and granularity of a model, the more costly the computational resources needed and the longer the simulation and modeling time. When the priority is to provide quick but reliable assessments of the thermal performance or real time thermal feedback for training of console operators, simplified modeling tools are needed. To satisfy that need, this paper describes the effort to develop and correlate a model of VIPER TMS based on control volume approach. The correlation effort in particular focuses on hibernation, cold thermal balance, and hot thermal balance data from the integrated vehicle thermal vacuum (TVAC) test. Thus, the correlated model captures the heat leaks during hibernations and the performance at two extremes, bounding, operating scenarios.

Loop Heat Pipe↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part II: Integrated Vehicle

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) thermal management system (TMS) relies on four loop heat pipes (LHPs) to transport electronic waste heat to the vehicle cooling radiative surface and avoid overheating. The TMS has also ten constant conductance heat pipes (CCHPs) dedicated to balance the thermal load within the internal environment where the avionics boxes are mounted, also called warm electronic box (WEB), and to transport the heat from two of the science payload instruments. The TMS also uses two thermal straps to thermally link the batteries to the WEB. These thermal components, in addition to heaters, thermostat, multi-layer insulation (MLIs), and isolators forms the core of the VIPER TMS. The complex heat transport balance managed by the TMS is challenging to characterize and model. The more fidelity and granularity of a model, the more costly the computational resources needed and the longer the simulation and modeling time. When the priority is to provide quick but reliable assessments of the thermal performance or real time thermal feedback for training of console operators, simplified modeling tools are needed. To satisfy that need, this paper describes the effort to develop and correlate a model of VIPER TMS based on control volume approach. The correlation effort in particular focuses on hibernation, cold thermal balance, and hot thermal balance data from the integrated vehicle thermal vacuum (TVAC) test. Thus, the correlated model captures the heat leaks during hibernations and the performance at two extremes, bounding, operating scenarios.

Thermal Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2015

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading: Appendices

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approx. 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approx. 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

Gentz, Steven J↗

DOE OSTI2023

Core Model Proposal #359: Hydrogen and Transportation Technology Update

This core model proposal updates modeling structures, key technology assumptions, and data sources for a detailed representation of hydrogen in GCAM’s energy system, including production, transmission and distribution, and consumption in hydrogen end-use sectors (buildings, transportation, industry).

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1998

Reliability Modeling of Brittle Anisotropic Materials

A significant effort is being made to develop testing and design methodologies that will account for the lack of ductility and the strength anisotropy exhibited by brittle single crystals such as NiAl. The present approach is to modify existing test methods and brittle design methodologies, such as those applied to ceramics and glasses, and to experimentally verify the results. This paper focuses on the basic materials properties and strength behavior of a NiAl single crystal alloy and the development of a reliability model for the design of components subjected to multiaxial stresses.

Conceivably↗

NASA NTRS2013

Electrochemistry-based Battery Modeling for Prognostics

Batteries are used in a wide variety of applications. In recent years, they have become popular as a source of power for electric vehicles such as cars, unmanned aerial vehicles, and commericial passenger aircraft. In such application domains, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. To implement such technologies, it is crucial to understand how batteries work and to capture that knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis algorithms. In this work, we develop electrochemistry-based models of lithium-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles. This paper reports on the progress of such a model, with results demonstrating the model validity and accurate EOD predictions.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2026

A parametric study of slow dynamic nonlinear elasticity with comparisons to models

Several phenomenological models that aspire to quantitative description of anomalous nonlinear mesoscopic elasticity are reviewed and compared with laboratory measurements. This class of nonlinearity, best known perhaps for slow dynamics and aging, is seen widely in imperfectly consolidated granular solids but is not well understood. Typical slow dynamic tests show that a modest conditioning oscillatory "pump" strain depresses material stiffness, which then recovers like the logarithm of time after conditioning ceases. Several phenomenological models based on physical arguments have been proposed that predict the material stiffness response to arbitrary pump strain histories during conditioning and recovery. Approximate closed form and numerical solutions to the models are presented that predict the quantitative influence of three key pump parameters: the pump's strain amplitude, the pump's strain rate, and the pump’s duration. Laboratory measurements on Berea sandstone, concrete and a confined single aluminum bead find that slow dynamic responses are linear in pump strain and independent of pump frequency. Measurements also show that, after pump-off, stiffness recovers over times far longer than the pump duration. These observations and others are compared to model predictions. One of the considered models, based on a picture of fast brittle damage and slow healing, successfully matches all these behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1983

Modeling a Li/SOCl2 battery for design purposes

A generalized code applicable to many different electrochemical systems and geometric designs is discussed. The code is to be set up so that physical property data such as thermal conductivity, viscosity, density, and configuration (e.g. physical dimensions) are the input data. Thus, by changing these parameters many different battery configurations can be handled. The outputs, as a function of time and space, are voltage, current, temperature, pressure, velocity, and species concentration.

Ernst, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading: Appendices - Volume 2, Part 1

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approximately 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approximately 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

Steven J Gentz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermomechanical Modeling of Woven Materials With Particle-Based, Explicit-Fiber Simulations

Fiber-based materials are extensively used to protect spacecraft during entry. Insulative fibers, often in a fiber network or woven, provide rigidity, strength, and control of material anisotropy and density. Woven thermal protection materials, such as ADEPT (Adaptable, Deployable Entry and Placement Technology), 3D-MAT (3-Dimensional Multifunctional Ablative Thermal Protection), and 3MDCP (3D Woven Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic), enable missions with stronger and denser materials for entry profiles with high shear and heat flux. Vulnerabilities to woven thermal protection materials include manufacturing-induced material property variation, and impact from micrometeoroids. Simulating woven materials under these conditions require models that can resolve hierarchal structures, thermomechanical behavior, and failure. To address this, we simulate weave thermal conduction and mechanical deformation. We simulate the full weave with a coarse-grained yarn model is presented. The model combines a validated, high-resolution single 3MDCP yarn model and phenolic resin model. Instead of modeling every fiber, each yarn ply with order 10, instead of order 1000, fibers. The discrete element bonded particle model (DEM-BPM) of fibers captures the thermal and mechanical behavior within and between fibers. We study the proportion of heat transfer and stress via the contact network, fiber bonds, and overall weave geometry.

bonded particle↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mechanical, Electrochemical & Thermal Modeling of Electric Vehicle Batteries for Crash Simulation (CRADA CRD-19-00811 Final Report)

Under the proposed effort in partnership with Hyundai Motor Company (HMC), the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) will cooperate with HMC to develop mathematical models for battery cells and modules for simulating abuse response in batteries subject to the type of mechanical crushing that can occur in a full motor vehicle crash.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part I: Loop Heat Pipe

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) uses a combination of loop heat pipes (LHPs) and heaters as the primary hardware to modulate the temperature of the electronic boxes and payloads instruments. LHPs have been designed and instrumented to be capable of passive and active shutdown. The goal of the passive shutdown, using a thermal control valve (TCV) to limit the flow of the working fluid, is to preserve thermal energy and avoid unnecessary heat leaks during lunar night. The goal of the active shutdown on the other hand, is to forcefully increase the vehicle internal temperature to bakeout the payload instruments. Several numerical modeling tools are available to analyze LHP performance under the complex set of operational requirements and environments levied on the VIPER Thermal Management System (TMS). Yet, while those numerical modeling tools are capable of detailed performance analysis, they tend to take large computational resources and long computational time. In this paper, a model of a single LHP developed based on control volume approach is presented. By using the control volume approach, the complex geometry of the LHP, and the components attached to it, are reduced to thermal lump capacitances, thus reducing the computation effort. This paper also describes the effort to correlate the proposed LHP model using thermal vacuum (TVAC) test data.

Loop Heat Pipe↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part I: Loop Heat Pipe

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) uses a combination of loop heat pipes (LHPs) and heaters as the primary hardware to modulate the temperature of the electronic boxes and payloads instruments. LHPs have been designed and instrumented to be capable of passive and active shutdown. The goal of the passive shutdown, using a thermal control valve (TCV) to limit the flow of the working fluid, is to preserve thermal energy and avoid unnecessary heat leaks during lunar night. The goal of the active shutdown on the other hand, is to forcefully increase the vehicle internal temperature to bakeout the payload instruments. Several numerical modeling tools are available to analyze LHP performance under the complex set of operational requirements and environments levied on the VIPER Thermal Management System (TMS). Yet, while those numerical modeling tools are capable of detailed performance analysis, they tend to take large computational resources and long computational time. In this paper, a model of a single LHP developed based on control volume approach is presented. By using the control volume approach, the complex geometry of the LHP, and the components attached to it, are reduced to thermal lump capacitances, thus reducing the computation effort. This paper also describes the effort to correlate the proposed LHP model using thermal vacuum (TVAC) test data.

Loop Heat Pipe↗

DOE OSTI2021

DEPRECATED AI-Batt-OS (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models - Open Source) [SWR 21-17]

DEPRECATED. This repository was archived by the owner on Jun 30, 2026. It is now read-only. Open source implementation of some of the methods utilized by AI-Batt, a battery lifetime modeling and analysis toolkit provided by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). This software demonstrates the use of bi-level optimization and symbolic regression techniques to semi-autonomously identify algebraic models predicting the capacity fade of lithium-ion batteries during calendar aging. Modeling the degradation of batteries is a complex task, due to the difficulty in separating the time-dependent and time-independent factors impacting cell level degradation, across multiple data series with different numbers of measurements and/or data quality. Bi-level optimization enables model parameters to be optimized to either the entire data set or to individual data series, allowing statistical disambiguation of global behaviors (data series independent) and local behaviors (data series dependent). Symbolic regression is used to automatically search for optimal low-dimesional models predicting the variation of locally optimized parameters versus time-independent experimental variables from millions of possible models, resulting in a more accurate and repeatable model identification process than is possible by a manual search. The provided tools also implement cross-validation and bootstrap resampling schemes, empowering statistical model comparison/selection and quantification of model uncertainties. An example script replicates the results from the manuscript "Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning", submitted to ECS. All code is written in MATLAB. Requires the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox. Contact Dr. Paul Gasper at Paul.Gasper@nlr.gov for any questions.

Gasper, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Overview of Electric Vehicle Load Modeling Strategies for Grid Integration Studies

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has emerged as a solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, which has motivated the implementation of public policies to promote their use in several countries. However, the high adoption of EVs poses challenges for the electricity sector, as it would imply an increase in energy demand and possible impacts on the power quality (PQ) of the power grid. Therefore, it is important to conduct EV integration studies in the power grid to determine the amount that can be incorporated without causing problems and identify the areas of the power sector that will require reinforcements. Accurate EV load patterns are required for this type of study that, through mathematical modeling, reflect both the dynamic behavior and the factors that influence the decision to recharge EVs. This article aims to present an overview of EVs, examine the different factors considered in the literature for modeling EV load patterns, and review modeling methods. EV load modeling methods are classified into deterministic, statistical, and machine learning. The article shows that each modeling method has its advantages, disadvantages, and data requirements, ranging from simple load modeling to more accurate models requiring large datasets.

Computer Science↗