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At least 127 records · Page 7

Detection of rotating thunderstorms using satellite imagery

In the case of the Carolina tornadoes, researchers prepared visible and IR GOES imagery covering the period 2000 Z when the storm entered South Carolina from Georgia until it exited North Carolina at 0200 Z into Virginia. The GOES IR imagery clearly demonstrated that this storm was imbedded in a continuously propagating mesolow with a well defined cold dome. The ground damage track paralleled exactly with the cold dome throughout the storm's life across the Carolinas. There were no advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data during the period to allow researchers to inspect the cloud top for warm temperature anomalies. The Carolina storm did exhibit rightward deviating outflow which was oriented about 60 degrees to the 300 mb streamlines. The tornadoes of April 27, 1984 were part of a tornado producing cold front which stretched from Oklahoma to Minnesota. As the front moved eastward it touched off numerous tornadoes in eastern Wisconsin. GOES imagery for this data was prepared and it was strikingly clear that all along the North-South oriented squall line, the individual tunderstorms had cirrus plumes which had remarkable right deviation to the upper air flow. Unlike the Carolina long track supercell cell-mesolow system, these storms were isolated individual thunderstorms which touched off at least 16 tornadoes in eastern Wisconsin stretching from the Milwaukee area on the south to Vilas County in the north. The monster tornado of June 8, 1984 which leveled 90 percent of the village of Barneveld, Wisconsin and killed 9 persons is also discussed.

Anderson, C. E.↗

Post-Severe Thunderstorm Damage Assessment from March 2-3, 2020, Nashville, TN, Using Synthetic Aperture Radar Observations

Severe weather events (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes) are responsible for most weather-related infrastructure and building damages. The destruction caused by these events can cross several states, making damage estimates difficult, especially in heavily vegetated or rural areas. Drone or optical imagery is often relied upon in these cases but is limited by solar and atmospheric conditions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is an active sensor allowing for day and night collections in all weather conditions. This research highlights the benefits and limitations of using SAR to detect tornado tracks and associated damages while also assessing the strengths and weaknesses of two SAR sensors with varying wavelengths and spatial resolutions from the March 2020 Tornado Outbreak. The outbreak occurred overnight on March 2-3, when several supercell thunderstorms tracked across multiple states producing numerous tornadoes (EF-0 through EF-4) and large hail. Most of the damage occurred in central Tennessee, resulting in 25 fatalities, hundreds of injuries, and over a billion dollars worth of damage. Publicly available C-band (~6 cm) imagery from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 satellite and commercial X-band (~3 cm) imagery from Airbus’s TerraSAR-X satellite were used to generate amplitude and coherence products. The closest post-event collections were used for the amplitude products, and the closest pre- and post-collections were used to create the coherence pairs. If damage tracks were identified in any of the SAR products, the length (miles) and max width (yards) were recorded and compared to the National Weather Service Storm Data official records. SAR successfully detected five rated EF-1 or higher out of ten recorded tornadoes. However, none of the four EF-0 tornadoes were identified. X- and C-band SAR sensors are heavily impacted by dense vegetation, underestimating the extent of damage. Despite these limitations, SAR products can be beneficial when looking at severe weather impacts, especially during the winter and early spring when the coherence products are less influenced by vegetation. The upcoming L-band (~24 cm) NISAR mission will provide more accurate estimates of damage, with the longer wavelength, expanding the applications of SAR to assist in damage assessment caused by severe thunderstorms.

Hannah G Pankratz↗

Ionospheric remote sensing of medium-scale gravity waves and tornadic storms

Gravity waves associated with severe storms are investigated on the basis of ionospheric sounding using a ground-based Doppler system. Reverse-group ray tracing computations are used to determine the origin of over 20 gravity waves detected within 800 km of Huntsville, Alabama in association with a group of tornadoes, isolated tornadoes in the presence of a squall line, and isolated tornadoes in the absence of a squall line. Gravity waves associated with tornadoes are found either to be generated by thunderstorms with enhanced convection embedded in a squall line, or in an isolated cloud with enhanced convection. The computed wave sources are observed in all cases to be located near the points where the tornadoes touched down more than an hour after wave excitation. Results show that gravity waves play an important role in troposphere-ionosphere coupling during times of intense convection associated with tornadic storm activity.

Hung, R. J.↗

Remote sensing of tornadic storms from geosynchronous satellite infrared digital data

Two cases of GOES digital infrared data were analyzed during the three-hour period immediately prior to the tornado touchdown times. Clouds associated with tornadoes were compared to those without tornadoes using a combination of satellite infrared and rawinsonde data. On the basis of this limited data sample, it appears as if the altitude to which the overshooting cloud top penetrated above the tropopause is the factor which determines whether or not a tornado is formed. In these cases, the overshooting cloud top collapsed about 15 to 30 min before the tornado touchdown.

Hung, R. J.↗

Satellite infrared imagery, rawinsonde data, and gravity wave remote sensing of severe convective storms

GOES digital infrared data during the time period between two hours before the touchdown of tornado and the tornado touchdown time were used in this study. Comparison between tornado-associated clouds and non-tornado-associated clouds indicates that the difference between overshooting cloud top temperature and the tropopause temperature, or how much the cloud has penetrated above the tropopause, rather than either the absolute temperature of penetrative cloud top or the height of the top of overshooting turret is significant for the possible formation of severe storms. The penetrative overshooting cloud top collapses about 15 to 30 minutes before the touchdown of tornado. Gravity waves were detected from the severe convective storms.

Hung, R. J.↗

Detection of Storm Damage Tracks with EOS Data

The damage surveys conducted by the NWS in the aftermath of a reported tornadic event are used to document the location of the tornado ground damage track (pathlength and width) and an estimation of the tornado intensity. This study explores the possibility of using near-real-time medium and high spatial resolution satellite imagery from the NASA Earth Observing System satellites to provide additional information for the surveys. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data were used to study the damage tracks from three tornadic storms: the La Plata, Maryland, storm of 28 April 2002 and the Ellsinore and Marquand, Missouri, storms of 24 April 2002. These storms varied in intensity and occurred over regions with significantly different land cover. It was found that, depending on the nature of the land cover, tornado damage tracks from intense storms (F1 or greater) and hail storms may be evident in ASTER, Landsat, and MODIS satellite imagery. In areas where the land cover is dominated by forests, the scar patterns can show up very clearly, while in areas of grassland and regions with few trees, scar patterns are not as obvious or cannot be seen at all in the satellite imagery. The detection of previously unidentified segments of a damage track caused by the 24 April 2002 Marquand, Missouri, tornado demonstrates the utility of satellite imagery for damage surveys. However, the capability to detect tornado tracks in satellite imagery depends on the ability to observe the ground without obstruction from space and appears to be as much dependent on the nature of the underlying surface and land cover as on the severity of the tornadic storm.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

Disentangling the Influences of Storm-Relative Flow and Horizontal Streamwise Vorticity on Low-Level Mesocyclones in Supercells

Sufficient low-level storm-relative flow is a necessary ingredient for sustained supercell thunderstorms and is connected to supercell updraft width. Assuming a supercell exists, the role of low-level storm-relative flow in regulating supercells’ low-level mesocyclone intensity is less clear. One possibility considered in this article is that storm-relative flow controls mesocyclone and tornado width via its modulation of overall updraft extent. This hypothesis relies on a previously postulated positive correspondence between updraft width, mesocyclone width, and tornado width. An alternative hypothesis is that mesocyclone characteristics are primarily regulated by horizontal streamwise vorticity irrespective of storm-relative flow. A matrix of supercell simulations was analyzed to address the aforementioned hypotheses, wherein horizontal streamwise vorticity and storm-relative flow were independently varied. Among these simulations, mesocyclone width and intensity were strongly correlated with horizontal streamwise vorticity, and comparatively weakly correlated with storm-relative flow, supporting the second hypothesis. Accompanying theory and trajectory analysis offers the physical explanation that, when storm-relative flow is large and updrafts are wide, vertically tilted streamwise vorticity is projected over a wider area but with a lesser average magnitude than when these parameters are small. These factors partially offset one another, degrading the correspondence of storm-relative flow with updraft circulation and rotational velocity, which are the mesocyclone attributes most closely tied to tornadoes. In conclusion, these results refute the previously purported connections between updraft width, mesocyclone width, and tornado width, and emphasize horizontal streamwise vorticity as the primary control on low-level mesocyclones in sustained supercells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observation of acoustic-gravity waves in the upper atmosphere during severe storm activity

A nine-element continuum wave spectrum, high-frequency, Doppler sounder array has been used to detect upper atmospheric wave-like disturbances during periods with severe weather activity, particularly severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Five events of severe weather activity, including extreme tornado outbreak of April 3, 1974, were chosen for the present study. The analysis of Doppler records shows that both infrasonic waves and gravity waves were excited when severe storms appeared in the north Alabama area. Primarily, in the case of tornado activity, S-shaped Doppler fluctuations or Doppler fold-backs are observed, while quasi-sinusoidal fluctuations are more common in the case of thunderstorm activity. A criterion for the production of Doppler fold-backs is derived and compared with possible tornado conditions.

Hung, R. J.↗

Ionospheric and satellite remote sensing of tornadic storms

Gravity waves associated with tornadoes were studied by using a ground-based ionospheric sounding system and satellite visible and infrared photographs of clouds associated with storms. Examples were chosen from gravity waves associated with a group of tornadoes and with isolated tornadic storms. Ray tracing computation was carried out to identify the location of the wave source. It is found that the wave sources of gravity waves associated with tornadoes were located on the squall line and/or isolated clouds where the tornado touched down one hour after the gravity waves were excited.

Hung, R. J.↗

Gravity waves and GOES IR data study of an isolated tornadic storm on 29 May 1977

Enhanced convection-initiated gravity waves associated with an isolated tornado in the absence of a squall line are investigated. Ray-tracing computations based on data observed on May 29, 1977 indicated that the wave sources were located in north-central Oklahoma. Comparison with a radar echo map during the time period when the waves were excited showed that the waves were generated by an isolated cloud with enhanced convection. GOES infrared digital data during the time period from wave excitation to tornado touchdown were analyzed. Results showed that the cloud where the gravity waves were excited was characterized by both a very low temperature at the cloud top and a very high expansion rate of the cold cloud-top area. The lead time between the excitation of the gravity waves and the tornado touchdown is discussed in conjunction with the growth rate of the clouds associated with the tornado.

Hung, R. J.↗

Ionospsheric observation of enhanced convection-initiated gravity waves during tornadic storms

Atmospheric gravity waves associated with tornadoes, with locally severe storms occuring with tornadoes, and with hurricanes were studied through the coupling between the ionosphere and the troposphere. Reverse group ray tracing computations of gravity waves observed by an ionospheric Doppler sounder array were analyzed. The results of ray tracing computations and comparisons between the computed location of the wave sources and with conventional meteorological data indicate that the computed sources of the waves were near the touchdown of the tornadoes, near the eye of the hurricanes, and directly on the squall line of the severe thunderstorms. The signals excited occurred one hour in advance of the tornadoes and three hours in advance of the hurricanes. Satellite photographs show convective overshooting turrets occurring at the same locations and times the gravity waves were being excited. It is suggested that gravity wave observations, conventional meteorological data, and satellite photographs be combined to develop a remote sensing technique for detecting severe storms.

Hung, R. J.↗

GOES infrared study of tornadic storms

Enhanced convection-initiated gravity waves associated with an isolated tornado in the absence of a squall line are investigated. Ray tracing computations based on data observed on May 29, 1977 indicated that the wave sources were located in north central Oklahoma. Comparison with a radar echo map during the time period when the waves were excited showed that the waves were generated by an isolated cloud with enhanced convection. GOES infrared digital data during the time period from wave excitation to tornado touchdown were analyzed. Results showed that the cloud where the gravity waves were excited was characterized by both a very low temperature at the cloud top and a very high expansion rate of the cold cloud tops area. The lead time between the excitation of the gravity waves and the tornado touchdown is discussed in conjunction with the growth rate of the clouds associated with the tornado.

Hung, R. J.↗

Satellite-observed cloud-top height changes in tornadic thunderstorms

Eleven tornadic storms are evaluated with respect to cloud top temperature changes relative to tornado touchdown. Digital IR data from the SMS/GOES geosynchronous satellites were employed for 10 F2 and one F1 tornadoes. A rapid ascent of the cloud tops 30-45 min before tornado touchdown, a temperature decrease of 0.4 K/min, and an ascent rate of about 3 m/sec were observed. The presence of an operating Doppler radar for three of the sample storms allowed detection of a mesocyclone coincident with the rapid cloud top ascent. The intensification and descent of the vortex to form a tornado is concluded to be due to a weakening of the updraft, the formation of a downdraft, and a shift of the vortex to the updraft-downdraft boundary, leading to dominance of the tilting term in the generation of vorticity.

Adler, R. F.↗

Severe convective storm detection based on satellite infrared imagery analysis

Several cases of GOES digital infrared data and Doppler Sounder array data during the three-hour time period immediately preceding the touchdown of the tornado were analyzed. Tornado-associated clouds are compared with non-tornado-associated clouds using satellite infrared data, ray tracing of gravity waves detected by the Doppler Sounder array and rawinsonde data. The satellite observations are at 15-minute intervals. Our study shows that tornado-associated clouds are always accompanied by overshooting turrets penetrating above the tropopause. The growth rate of the overshooting turret above the tropopause for severe storm-associated clouds is much greater than that for non-severe storm-associated clouds.

Hung, R. J.↗

Tornadic Supercells on May 3, 1999 Viewed from Space During an Overpass of the NASA TRMM Observatory

The NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Observatory made an overpass during the Central Oklahoma tornado outbreak at approximately 04:00 LTC on 4 May, 1999 (23:00 CDT on 3 May). At the time of the TRMM snapshot there were 25 individual storms in Oklahoma that could be identified and cross-correlated between the TRMM measurements and the Twin Lakes (KTLX) NEXRAD radar. Of these, six were significant supercells that could be trended for 30-min prior and subsequent to (1 hr total) the TRMM overpass. Thus, we are able to provide a context for the TRMM snapshot with respect to each individual supercell's recent growth, decay, and severe weather producing history. The most vigorous and electrically active storm at the time of the overpass is the Stroud, OK supercell whose F3 tornado ended only about 10 minutes earlier. Another F3 tornado north of Crescent, OK (- 150 km west of Stroud) is on the ground and a supercell with a developing, yet still weak mesocyclone is just south of the Stroud storm. This latter storm produces an F1 tornado an hour later near Sapulpa, OK. The objective of this study is to provide additional insight into the characteristics of the supercell storms through the unique capabilities and vantagepoint of the TRMM science instruments.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

ARMOR Dual-Polarimetric Radar Observations of Tornadic Debris Signatures

During the Super-Tuesday tornado outbreak of 5-6 February 2008, two EF-4 tornadoes occurred in Northern Alabama within 75 km range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). This study will present an analysis of ARMOR radar-indicated dual-polarimetric tornadic debris signatures. The debris signatures were associated with spatially-confined large decreases in the copolar correlation coefficient (rho(hv)hv) that were embedded within broader mesocyclone "hook" signatures. These debris signatures were most obviously manifest during the F-3 to F-4 intensity stages of the tornado(s) and extended to altitudes of approximately 3 km. The rho(hv) signatures of the tornadic debris were the most easily distinguished relative to other polarimetric and radial velocity parameters (e.g., associated with large hail and/or the incipient mesocyclone). Based on our analysis, and consistent with the small number of studies found in the literature, we conclude that dual-polarimetric radar data offer at least the possibility for enhancing specificity and confidence in the process of issuing tornado warnings based only on radar detection of threatening circulation features.

Petersen, W. A,↗

High-Resolution Analysis Products to Support Severe Weather and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Threat Assessments over Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) located at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) implemented an operational configuration of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS), as well as the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Operational, high-resolution ADAS analyses have been produced from this configuration at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) over the past several years. Since that time, ADAS fields have become an integral part of forecast operations at both NWS MLB and SMG. To continue providing additional utility, the AMU has been tasked to implement visualization products to assess the potential for supercell thunderstorms and significant tornadoes, and to improve assessments of short-term cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning potential. This paper and presentation focuses on the visualization products developed by the AMU for the operational high-resolution ADAS and AR.PS at the NWS MLB and SMG. The two severe weather threat graphics implemented within ADAS/ARPS are the Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) and Significant Tornado Parameter (SIP). The SCP was designed to identify areas with supercell thunderstorm potential through a combination of several instability and shear parameters. The SIP was designed to identify areas that favor supercells producing significant tornadoes (F2 or greater intensity) versus non-tornadic supercells. Both indices were developed by the NOAAINWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and were normalized by key threshold values based on previous studies. The indices apply only to discrete storms, not other convective modes. In a post-analysis mode, the AMU calculated SCP and SIP for graphical output using an ADAS configuration similar to the operational set-ups at NWS MLB and SMG. Graphical images from ADAS were generated every 15 minutes for 13 August 2004, the day that Hurricane Charley approached and made landfall on the Florida peninsula. Several tornadoes struck the interior of the Florida peninsula in advance of Hurricane Charley's landfall during the daylight hours of 13 August. Since SPC had previously examined this case using SCP and SIP graphics generated from output of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model, this day served as a good benchmark to compare and validate the high-resolution ADAS graphics against the smoother RUC analyses, which serves as background fields to the ADAS analyses. The ADAS-generated SCP and STP graphics have been integrated into the suite of products examined operationally by NWS MLB forecasters and are used to provide additional guidance for assessment of the near-storm environment during convective situations.

Case, Jonathan↗

Extreme Storms

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Kossin, J. P.↗