Dynamic modelling of flexible dispatch in a novel nuclear-solar integrated energy system with thermal energy storage
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Nuclear Science & Technology↗
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Global 10 m Land Use Land Cover Datasets: A Comparison of Dynamic World, World Cover and Esri Land Cover
The European Space Agency’s Sentinel satellites have laid the foundation for global land use land cover (LULC) mapping with unprecedented detail at 10 m resolution. We present a cross-comparison and accuracy assessment of Google’s Dynamic World (DW), ESA’s World Cover (WC) and Esri’s Land Cover (Esri) products for the first time in order to inform the adoption and application of these maps going forward. For the year 2020, the three global LULC maps show strong spatial correspondence (i.e., near-equal area estimates) for water, built area, trees and crop LULC classes. However, relative to one another, WC is biased towards over-estimating grass cover, Esri towards shrub and scrub cover and DW towards snow and ice. Using global ground truth data with a minimum mapping unit of 250 m 2 , we found that Esri had the highest overall accuracy (75%) compared to DW (72%) and WC (65%). Across all global maps, water was the most accurately mapped class (92%), followed by built area (83%), tree cover (81%) and crops (78%), particularly in biomes characterized by temperate and boreal forests. The classes with the lowest accuracies, particularly in the tundra biome, included shrub and scrub (47%), grass (34%), bare ground (57%) and flooded vegetation (53%). When using European ground truth data from LUCAS (Land Use/Cover Area Frame Survey) with a minimum mapping unit of <100 m 2 , we found that WC had the highest accuracy (71%) compared to DW (66%) and Esri (63%), highlighting the ability of WC to resolve landscape elements with more detail compared to DW and Esri. Although not analyzed in our study, we discuss the relative advantages of DW due to its frequent and near real-time data delivery of both categorical predictions and class probability scores. We recommend that the use of global LULC products should involve critical evaluation of their suitability with respect to the application purpose, such as aggregate changes in ecosystem accounting versus site-specific change detection in monitoring, considering trade-offs between thematic resolution, global versus. local accuracy, class-specific biases and whether change analysis is necessary. We also emphasize the importance of not estimating areas from pixel-counting alone but adopting best practices in design-based inference and area estimation that quantify uncertainty for a given study area.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Agrivoltaic Decision Tools for Perennial and Field Crop Farmers
This article describes a series of spreadsheet-based tools to help farmers estimate costs, revenues, and yields from agricultural production under different configurations of agrivoltaic installations for field and perennial crops. Crop-specific log books allow farmers to project changes in activity-level costs from the field due to agrivoltaic installations. The whole-farm tool helps farmers aggregate activity-level net returns up to the farm level to calculate projections of trade-offs between crop production with or without agrivoltaic installations. We present tools for lettuce and cranberries, but the tools are comprehensive and inclusive and so can be modified for other perennial and field crops.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Restrictive spirometry pattern among construction trade workers
Spirometry-based studies of occupational lung disease have mostly focused on obstructive or mixed obstructive/restrictive outcomes. We wanted to determine if restrictive spirometry pattern (RSP) is associated with occupation and increased mortality. Study participants included 18,145 workers with demographic and smoking data and repeatable spirometry. The mortality analysis cohort included 15,445 workers with known vital status and cause of death through December 31, 2016. Stratified analyses explored RSP prevalence by demographic and clinical variables and trade. Log-binomial regression models explored RSP risk factors while controlling for important confounders such as smoking, obesity, and comorbidities. Cox regression models explored mortality risk by spirometry category. Prevalence of RSP was very high (28.6%). Mortality hazard ratios for RSP were 1.50 for all causes, 1.86 for cardiovascular diseases, 2.31 for respiratory diseases, and 1.66 for lung cancer. All construction trades except painters, machinists, and roofers had significantly elevated risk for RSP compared to our internal reference group. RSP was significantly associated with both parenchymal and pleural changes seen by chest X-ray. Construction trade workers are at significantly increased risk for RSP independent of obesity. Individuals with RSP are at increased risk for all-cause mortality as well as mortality attributable to respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and lung cancer. RSP deserves greater attention in occupational medicine and epidemiology.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
HPC for the EEC: Industrial Trade Tools for the Aging Energy Infrastructure
The petrochemical and refining sectors are challenged with reliably delivering safer and cleaner energy to US consumers, while meeting an ever-growing global demand. The petrochemical and refining infrastructure in the USA is aging, and corrosion and damage mechanisms are constant threats to mechanical integrity, safety, and profitability. However, governments and industry stakeholders are reluctant to replace or upgrade the existing infrastructure due to the immense cost. To better understand and mitigate the risks of aging energy infrastructure, strong technical analysis capabilities, combined with optimized monitoring and decision making, is critical. Today, this is accomplished via complex simulations and data analysis. To this end, advanced High-Performance-Computing (HPC) software will be leveraged and integrated in easy-to-use industrial trade tools, to lower the barrier for new users, increase the ease of access for experienced users, and allow for smarter decisions to be made in the midstream and downstream energy sectors.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Benchmarking optimization methods for materials research: Gradient descent and Bayesian optimization for lithium-ion battery aging diagnostics
Accurate and efficient parameter estimation is essential for battery diagnostics and aging analysis. Here, in this study, we compare two optimization-based approaches—gradient descent and Bayesian optimization—for extracting parameters from differential voltage analysis in lithium-ion batteries. While these techniques are widely used, their relative strengths and limitations for this application are not well understood. The study evaluates the trade-offs between these methods in terms of result quality, computational cost, and reliability within this specific application. The diagnostic results from our battery data suggest adopting gradient descent as an initial method for rapid and efficient analysis, while employing more stable optimization techniques, such as Bayesian optimization, as a verification step to mitigate potential instability. Comparing the two methods provides information on algorithmic choice, while inspiring further discussions on selecting appropriate techniques for specific research tasks.
Zhao, Ziqing [Boston Univ., MA (United States)] (O↗
The impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural sector under the national self-sufficiency policy
Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries’ potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation’s producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.
Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
Benchmarking greenhouse gas emissions from US wastewater treatment for targeted reduction
Here, in this study, to assess the national climate impact of wastewater treatment and inform decarbonization, we assembled a comprehensive greenhouse gas inventory of 15,863 facilities in the contiguous USA. Considering location and treatment configurations, we modelled on-site CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 production and emissions associated with energy, chemical inputs and solids disposal. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated median national emissions at 47 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent per year, with on-site process CH 4 and N 2 O emissions exceeding current government estimates by 41%. Treatment configurations with anaerobic digesters are responsible for 16 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent per year of fugitive methane, outweighing benefits achieved through on-site electricity generation. Systems designed for nutrient removal have the highest greenhouse gas emissions intensity, attributable to energy requirements and N 2 O production, demonstrating current trade-offs between meeting water quality and climate objectives. We analysed key sensitivities and included a geospatial analysis to highlight the scale and distribution of opportunities for reducing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Distributed Coordination of Networked Microgrids for Voltage Support in Bulk Power Grids
The increasing deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs) and microgrids (MGs) in power distribution systems has enabled the adjustment of reactive power consumption as seen at the substation, which can be used to provide voltage support for the bulk power system (BPS). Leveraging this new capability will provide greater resiliency to the power system as a whole. Here, the goal of this paper is to develop and compare three different algorithms, namely distributed optimal power flow, distributed consensus algorithm, and fully decentralized collaborative autonomy for unbalanced distribution systems for microgrid coordination. These algorithms use networked MGs to support the BPS voltage when a contingency at the bulk grid results in abnormally low voltages, which may be a precursor to voltage collapse. Our comparative analysis includes both qualitative and quantitative assessments of the three algorithms and a discussion of the trade-offs between the decentralized and distributed methods in normal and disrupted conditions. Each algorithm was evaluated on the modified IEEE 13-bus system and a real power distribution system at Chattanooga, Tennessee, that encompasses more than 4500 buses. Each algorithms excels differently and may be suited for different scenarios depending on the condition, operations, and priorities of the power and communication systems.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Republic of Korea–United States Green Shipping Corridor Prefeasibility Study: Cargo Flows
This prefeasibility study, as a part of the decarbonization efforts through the Mission Innovation Zero Emission Shipping Mission, was conducted to provide a high-level assessment of the opportunities and challenges in planning and implementing green shipping corridors between major commercial seaports in the United States of America (USA) and the Republic of Korea (ROK). For each country, three major ports were included in the scope of this study: Seattle, Tacoma, and Everett (all in Washington State) for the USA and Busan, Ulsan, and Masan for the ROK. This prefeasibility study report focuses on describing operation characteristics of major vessel and cargo flows between the two countries. Vessel shipments directly affect energy use and demand. Therefore, it is critically important to understand which major vessel types and cargo types are operated or transported within the selected scope and to identify potential target segments for green shipping. Furthermore, this prefeasibility study also discusses limitations and additional assessments that need to be further analyzed in the next stage of the feasibility study. The summary findings and observations discussed in this report are not intended to be used to determine the final target corridors, but to guide later, deeper assessments of their potential impacts and challenges. In the following section, the data sources used in this study are discussed. Section 0 shows the overall vessel trades between the USA and ROK, considering all ports in the two countries. Then, a more detailed analysis by vessel type and cargo flow is presented in Sections 3–6 based on only the three-to-three ports between the two countries. Finally, Section 7 summarizes the findings with suggested target segmentations for the vessel types and discusses other limitations to be considered during the later feasibility stage.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Structural Break and Causal Analyses of U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol and Other Corn Market Variables
The causal basis for many of the relationships in models used to estimate the indirect effects of U.S. biofuels on global agricultural markets has not been adequately established. This paper addresses this gap by examining causal interactions among corn market variables through which the indirect effects of U.S. corn use for ethanol would be transmitted. Specifically, structural break and causal analyses of U.S. corn supply, uses, trade, and price are performed using quarterly data for marketing years 1986 to 2017. The structural break analysis identifies three breaks in corn use for ethanol that reflect the policy-driven evolution of U.S. corn ethanol production and other market factors. The causality analysis finds that U.S. corn use for ethanol is not a driver of the corn price and net corn exports. Changes in corn supply and domestic corn use are found to be the key factors in accommodating the large increase in corn use for ethanol between 2003 and 2010. These results mean that common assumptions linking U.S. corn ethanol production to large reductions in corn availability and exports, and higher global corn prices merit reconsideration.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Methods and Comparisons Between Computer Vision and Radar Based Vehicle Location
Measuring vehicle locations relative to a driver's vehicle is a critical component in the analysis of driving data from both postanalysis (such as in naturalistic driving studies) or in autonomous vehicle navigation. In this work we describe a method to estimate vehicle positions from a forward-looking video camera using intrinsic camera calibration, estimates of extrinsic parameters, and a convolutional neural network trained to detect and locate vehicles in video data. We compare the measurements we achieve with this method with ground truth and with radar data available from a naturalistic driving study. We identify regions where video is preferred, where radar is preferred, and explore trade-offs between the two methods in regions where the preference is more ambiguous. We describe applications of these measurements for transportation analysis.
Aykac, Deniz↗
Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade
Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Dual-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump system for load shifting: experiments, modeling and nationwide analysis
Here, this paper proposes and validates a dual-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump (TES-HP) system that shifts building electric load in both cooling and heating modes using a single phase-change TES. The design uses the TES as a heat sink for the condenser in summer and a heat source for the evaporator in winter, thereby reducing on-peak electric demand while ensuring compatible with existing air-distribution systems. A 14-kW TES-HP prototype with six operating modes and novel refrigerant charge management strategies was experimentally tested under varied conditions. Subsequently, data-driven polynomial performance curves were developed and validated against experiments, then coupled with a phase change material (PCM) model and a calibrated building model within a rule-based controller. Single-day case studies demonstrated effective on-peak demand reduction while maintaining thermal comfort. During cooling, hourly power was lowered by up to 1.5 kW; in heating, average hourly power decreased from over 3.5 kW to 1.8 kW, compared to an HP-only system, achieving 64.5 % load shifting, and the need for resistance heating was eliminated. Seasonal simulations showed typical on-peak electricity savings of 25–35 % in cooling and 40–65 % in heating, with the largest benefits on the hottest and coldest days. Extended response-surface analysis and nationwide mapping quantified load shifting as functions of ambient and TES temperatures, revealing a seasonal trade-off in TES phase-change temperature. These results demonstrate the TES-HP system as a practical and scalable solution for grid-interactive buildings that reduces on-peak demand and electricity use while maintaining thermal comfort and enhancing grid flexibility and reliability.
Grid-interactive buildings↗
Emissions Characterization for Ammonia Fuel Blends in an Enclosed Swirl-Stabilized Diffusion Burner
This study investigates ammonia flames using the enclosed Sydney swirl burner (ESSB), focusing on detailed global emissions measurements. Emissions were measured via Fourier-transform-infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, utilizing a heated, long-path absorption cell. Hot, wet measurements of pertinent species were collected, and concentrations were determined via lineshape fitting in conjunction with the HITRAN database. Results show that partially cracked ammonia compositions yield lower emissions compared to pure NH3/H2, and small amounts of NH3 addition to CH4-containing fuel blends exhibit high levels of NOx and CO, with measurable HCN and unburnt CH4. Equilibrium calculations suggest trade-offs between chemical timescale, heat loss, and mixing. Future work will explore emissions sampling procedures and expand analysis using chemical reactor network modelling.
ammonia combustion↗
Study of a Proposed fissionTPC Measurement of 233 U(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) Cross Section Ratio
A review of the available 233 U( n, f )/ 235 U( n, f ) cross section ratio data compared to the ENDF evaluation in the fast neutron energy range, 0.1–20 MeV, shows that discrepancies exist between some of the various measurements and the evaluation. The discrepancies vary and a function of incident neutron energy and range between 1–5%. In this document we review two potential options for performing new measurements of the cross section ratio to potentially resolve these discrepancies. The two options are compared and contrasted in terms of measurement accuracy and cost. The first option would utilize the fissionTPC, which was designed specifically to achieve measurement uncertainties of better than 1% to resolve a similar data–evaluation discrepancy in the 239 Pu( n, f ) cross section. While this would seem to be an ideal option in this case also, there are challenges. The fissionTPC is a complex instrument and the cost of maintenance and operations are significant. Furthermore, some of the fissionTPC equipment is nearing the end of its useful life which presents a risk to completion of a measurement campaign. The second option is to use a dual-fission chamber, which is the more traditional approach to these types of measurements. The cost is estimated to be about half that of a fissionTPC measurement, while the much simpler design of the detector reduces overall risk. The trade-off is the measurement uncertainty, which would be on order of 1–3% with a careful measurement and analysis. This uncertainty however may not be good enough to fully resolve the discrepancies. The objective of a new measurement would be the improvement in the ENDF evaluation with the end goal of improving the accuracy of models and simulations at the end of the nuclear data pipeline. An understanding of the sensitivity of these models to the data uncertainties would help guide the choice of measurement techniques.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
CFD Modeling of Concentration Polarization in High-Performance Flat-Sheet Modules
Membrane-based gas separation is a promising, regeneration-free route for industrial CO₂ capture, but its performance is often limited by concentration polarization (CP). Classical 1-D models neglect CP and thus overpredict fluxes, especially for today’s high-permeance, high-selectivity membranes. Therefore, we built a 3-D CFD model that resolves local species transport, boundary-layer resistance, permeate-side effects, and pressure drop in flat-sheet modules. Using the Concentration Polarization Coefficient (CPC) and the overall Effective Membrane CP Index (EAC), the model quantifies how geometry and operating conditions shape CP intensity. Simulations show CP becomes pronounced for advanced membranes, with feed-channel height emerging as the dominant geometric lever: shrinking the gap mitigates CP but raises pressure drop, forcing a trade-off between mass-transfer enhancement and energy cost. These insights emphasize the need for CFD-level analysis in next-generation module design, where 1-D treatments can severely underestimate required membrane area and misguide scale-up.
carbon capture↗
SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting
Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗