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At least 127 records · Page 7

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Liu, W. Timothy↗

Covariability of Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande from Interannual to Interdecadal Timescales

Study region: The Upper Rio Grande (URG) flows from its headwaters in Colorado, U.S., and provides an important source of water to millions of people in the U.S. states of Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and also Mexico. Study focus: We reassess the explanatory power of the relationship of sea surface temperatures (SST) on URG streamflow variability on interannual to interdecadal timescales. We find a significant amount of the variance of spring-summer URG streamflow cannot be fully explained by SST. New hydrological insights: We find that the interdecadal teleconnection between SST and streamflow is more clear than on interannual timescales. The highest ranked years tend to be clustered during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). During the periods of decadal high flow (1900-1920, and 1979-1995), Pacific SST resembles a positive PDO pattern and the Atlantic a negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) pattern; an interbasin pattern shown in prior studies to be conducive to high precipitation and streamflow. To account for the part of streamflow variance not explained by SST, we analyze atmospheric Reanalysis data for the months preceding the highest spring-summer streamflow events. A variety of atmospheric configurations are found to precede the highest flow years through anomalous moisture convergence. This lack of consistency suggests that, on interannual timescales, weather and not climate can dominate the generation of high streamflow events.

AMO↗

Increased Asian Aerosols Contribute to Historical Climate Change in Antarctica

Since the 1980s, anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) have decreased in North America and Europe, while they have continued to increase in East and South Asia. Meanwhile, climate change in Antarctica has exhibited a zonally asymmetric pattern. However, few studies have linked the two. In this study, we conduct fully coupled model experiments and find that Antarctica responds more significantly to Asian AAs than to those from North America and Europe. Increased Asian AAs induce a tri‐polar anomaly pattern in Antarctica via a poleward propagating Rossby wave train. This pattern is characterized by warmer temperature and less sea ice in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Seas, and cooler temperature and more sea ice in regions on its both flanks. Our findings highlight the importance of remote forcing, such as AAs in the Northern Hemisphere, in driving historical changes in Antarctica through atmospheric teleconnection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Separating Climate Signals with Machine Learning

To better prepare for future changes in the water cycle, it is vital to understand the regional effects of anthropogenic climate change and internal climate variability on precipitation. With existing methods, there is uncertainty regarding the regional patterns of these climate processes. We propose using machine learning to decompose seasonal total and extreme precipitation (calculated by Risser et. al., 2019) into components caused by each of the following signals: anthropogenic forcing, internal variability, and modes of natural climate variability (such as El Niño/ Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Pacific North American teleconnection).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection in the North Atlantic: Climate Impact and Relation to Rossby Wave Propagation

Large-scale winter teleconnection of the East Atlantic - West Russia (EA-WR) over the Atlantic and surrounding regions is examined in order to quantify its impacts on temperature and precipitation and identify the physical mechanisms responsible for its existence. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the upper-tropospheric monthly height field captures successfully the EA-WR pattern and its interannual variation, with the North Atlantic Oscillation as the first mode. EA-WRs climate impact extends from eastern North America to Eurasia. The positive (negative) EA-WR produces positive (negative) temperature anomalies over the eastern US, western Europe and Russia east of Caspian Sea, with negative (positive) anomalies over eastern Canada, eastern Europe including Ural Mountains and the Middle East. These anomalies are largely explained by lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Positive (negative) precipitation anomalies are found over the mid-latitude Atlantic and central Russia around 60E, where lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly is dominant. The eastern Canada and the western Europe are characterized by negative (positive) precipitation anomalies.The EA-WR is found to be closely associated with Rossby wave propagation. Wave activity fluxes show that it is strongly tied to large-scale stationary waves. Furthermore, a stationary wave model (SWM) forced with vorticity transients in the mid-latitude Atlantic (approximately 40N) or diabatic heat source over the subtropical Atlantic near the Caribbean Sea produces well-organized EA-WR-like wave patterns, respectively. Sensitivity tests with the SWM indicate improvement in the simulation of the EA-WR when the mean state is modified to have a positive NAO component that enhances upper-level westerlies between 40-60N.

EA/WR↗

Influences of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the Timing of the North American Spring

Detrended, modelled first leaf dates for 856 sites across North America for the period 1900-2008 are used to examine how the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) separately and together might influence the timing of spring. Although spring (mean March through April) ENSO and PDO signals are apparent in first leaf dates, the signals are not statistically significant (at a 95% confidence level (p <0.05)) for most sites. The most significant ENSO/PDO signal in first leaf dates occurs for El Nino and positive PDO conditions. An analysis of the spatial distributions of first leaf dates for separate and combined ENSO/PDO conditions features a northwest-southeast dipole that is significantly (at p <0.05) different than the distributions for neutral conditions. The nature of the teleconnection between Pacific SST's and first leaf dates is evident in comparable composites for detrended sea level pressure (SLP) in the spring months. During positive ENSO/PDO, there is an anomalous flow of warm air from the southwestern US into the northwestern US and an anomalous northeasterly flow of cold air from polar regions into the eastern and southeastern US. These flow patterns are reversed during negative ENSO/PDO. Although the magnitudes of first leaf date departures are not necessarily significantly related to ENSO and PDO, the spatial patterns of departures are significantly related to ENSO and PDO. These significant relations and the long-lived persistence of SSTs provide a potential tool for forecasting the tendencies for first leaf dates to be early or late.

McCabe, Gregory J.↗

Contributions of GRACE to Climate Monitoring

The NASA/German Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) was launched in March 2002. Rather than looking downward, GRACE continuously monitors the locations of and precise distance between twin satellites which orbit in tandem about 200 km apart. Variations in mass near Earth's surface cause heterogeneities in its gravity field, which in turn affect the orbits of satellites. Thus scientists can use GRACE data to map Earth's gravity field with enough accuracy to discern month to month changes caused by ocean circulation and redistribution of water stored on and in the land. Other gravitational influences, such as atmospheric circulation, post-glacial rebound, and solid earth movements are either independently determined and removed or are negligible on a monthly to sub-decadal timescale. Despite its coarse spatial (>150,000 sq km at mid-latitudes) and temporal (approx monthly) resolutions, GRACE has enabled significant advancements in the oceanic, hydrologic, and cryospheric science, and has great potential for climate monitoring, because it is the only global observing system able to measure ocean bottom pressures, total terrestrial water storage, and ice mass changes. The best known GRACE results are estimates of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet loss rates. Previously, scientists had estimated ice mass losses using ground and satellite based altimetry and surface mass balance estimates based on snowfall accumulation and glacier discharge. While such measurements are still very useful for their spatial detail, they are imperfectly correlated with large-scale ice mass changes, due to snow and ice compaction and incomplete spatial coverage. GRACE enables scientists to generate monthly time series of Greenland and Antarctic ice mass, which have confirmed the shrinking of the polar ice sheets, one of the most obvious and indisputable manifestations of climate change. Further, GRACE has located and quantified hot spots of ice loss in southeastern Greenland and western Antarctica. For 2002 to present, the rate of ice mass loss has been 200 to 300 GT/yr in Greenland and 70 to 210 GT/yr in Antarctica, and some scientists are suggesting that the rates are accelerating. Similarly, GRACE has been used to monitor mass changes in alpine glaciers. Tamisiea et al. first characterized glacier melt along the southern coast of Alaska, more recently estimated to be occurring at a rate of 84 GT/yr. Chen et al. estimated that Patagonian glaciers are melting at a rate of 28 GT/yr, and estimated that the high mountains of central Asia lose ice at a rate of 47 GT/yr. Tapley et al. and Wahr et al. presented the first GRACE based estimates of changes in column-integrated terrestrial water storage (TWS; the sum of ground-water, soil moisture, surface waters, snow, ice, and water stored in vegetation) at continental scales. Since then, dozens of studies have shown that GRACE based estimates of regional to continental scale TWS variations agree with independent information, and some innovative uses of GRACE data have been developed. Rodell et al. (2004) and Swenson and Wahr (2006) demonstrated that by combining GRACE derived terrestrial water storage changes with observations of precipitation and runoff in a river basin scale water budget, it was possible to produce new estimates of evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture convergence, essential climate variables that are difficult to estimate accurately. Similarly, GRACE has been used to constrain estimates of global river discharge and the contribution of changes in TWS to sea level rise. Crowley et al. observed a negative correlation between interannual TWS anomalies in the Amazon and the Congo River basin. Yeh et al. and Rodell et al. estimated regionally averaged groundwater storage variations based on GRACE and auxiliary observations. Rodell et al. and Tiwari et al. applied that method to quantify massive groundwater depletion in northern India caused by over reliance on aquifers for irration, and Famiglietti et al. found a similar situation in California's Central Valley. Zaitchik et al. and Lo et al. described approaches to use GRACE to constrain hydrological models, enabling integration of GRACE data with other observations and achieving much higher spatial and temporal resolutions than GRACE alone. Such approaches are now supporting applications including drought and water resources monitoring. Oceanography has likewise benefitted from the independent nature of GRACE observations. One application is measurement of the mass component of sea level rise, which complements radar altimetry and in situ measurements. GRACE also measures ocean bottom pressures (OBP), which help to refine understanding and modeling of ocean circulation and the ocean's fresh water budget, among other things. For example, Hayakawa et al. showed that GRACE observes OBP patterns absent from the background models of oceanic variability. Morison et al. used GRACE to describe important decadal scale shifts in circulation and an ongoing trend of freshening of the western Arctic, important indicators of climate variability. The research of Song and Zlotnicki and Chambers and Willis on GRACE-derived ocean bottom pressures in the sub-polar gyre led to the discovery of an ENSO teleconnection and a long-term change in OBP in the North Pacific sub-polar gyre that was not predicted by an ocean model. Further, Chambers and Willis were able to identify an internal redistribution of mass between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans lasting at least six years, which was not predicted by ocean models and was the first direct evidence of sustained mass transport from one ocean basin to another on periods longer than a year. Boening et al. observed a record increase in OBP over part of the southeastern Pacific in late 2009 and early 2010, primarily caused by wind stress curl associated with a strong and persistent anticyclone and likely related to the concurrent Central Pacific El Nino. GRACE has far surpassed its 5-year design lifetime, but it will likely succumb to the aging of batteries and instrument systems sometime in the next few years. NASA has begun initial development of a follow-on to GRACE with very similar design, which could launch as soon as 2016 and would provide continuity in the data record while improving resolution slightly. Higher resolution time variable gravity missions are also on the drawing board .

Rodell, Matthew↗

Could the 2012 Drought in Central U.S. Have Been Anticipated? A Review of NASA Working Group Research

This paper summarizes research related to the 2012 record drought in the central United States conducted by members of the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS) Working Group. Past drought patterns were analyzed for signal coherency with latest drought and the contribution of long-term trends in the Great Plains low-level jet, an important regional circulation feature of the spring rainy season in the Great Palins. Long-term changes in the seasonal transition from rainy spring into dry summer were also examined. Potential external forcing from radiative processes, soil-air interactions, and ocean teleconnections were assessed as contributors to the intensity of the drought. The atmospheric Rossby wave activity was found to be a potential source of predictability for the onset of drought. A probabilistic model was introduced and evaluated for its performance in predicting drought recovery in the Great Plains.

Drought 2012↗

Regime-oriented causal model evaluation of Atlantic–Pacific teleconnections in CMIP6

The climate system and its spatio-temporal changes are strongly affected by modes of long-term internal variability, like the Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). As they alternate between warm and cold phases, the interplay between PDV and AMV varies over decadal to multidecadal timescales. Here, we use a causal discovery method to derive fingerprints in the Atlantic–Pacific interactions and to investigate their phase-dependent changes. Dependent on the phases of PDV and AMV, different regimes with characteristic causal fingerprints are identified in reanalyses in a first step. In a second step, a regime-oriented causal model evaluation is performed to evaluate the ability of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in representing the observed changing interactions between PDV, AMV and their extra-tropical teleconnections. The causal graphs obtained from reanalyses detect a direct opposite-sign response from AMV to PDV when analyzing the complete 1900–2014 period and during several defined regimes within that period, for example, when AMV is going through its negative (cold) phase. Reanalyses also demonstrate a same-sign response from PDV to AMV during the cold phase of PDV. Historical CMIP6 simulations exhibit varying skill in simulating the observed causal patterns. Generally, large-ensemble (LE) simulations showed better network similarity when PDV and AMV were out of phase compared to other regimes. Also, the two largest ensembles (in terms of number of members) were found to contain realizations with similar causal fingerprints to observations. For most regimes, these same models showed higher network similarity when compared to each other. This work shows how causal discovery on LEs complements the available diagnostics and statistical metrics of climate variability to provide a powerful tool for climate model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiyear La Niña Events and Multiseason Drought in the Horn of Africa

One of the primary sources of predictability for seasonal hydroclimate forecasts are sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Multiyear La Niña events in particular may be both predictable at long lead times and favor drought in the bimodal rainfall regions of East Africa. However, SST patterns in the tropical Pacific and adjacent ocean basins often differ substantially between first- and second-year La Niñas, which can change how these events affect regional climate. Here, we demonstrate that multiyear La Niña events favor drought in the Horn of Africa in three consecutive seasons [October–December (OND), March–May (MAM), OND]. But they do not tend to increase the probability of a fourth season of drought owing to the sea surface temperatures and associated atmospheric teleconnections in the MAM long rains season following second-year La Niña events. First-year La Niñas tend to have both greater subsidence over the Horn of Africa, associated with warmer waters in the west Pacific that enhance the Walker circulation, and greater cross-continental moisture transport, associated with a warm tropical Atlantic, as compared to second-year La Niñas. Both the increased subsidence and enhanced cross-continental moisture transport favors drought in the Horn of Africa. Our results provide a physical understanding of the sources and limitations of predictability for using multiyear La Niña forecasts to predict drought in the Horn of Africa.

Climate variability↗

Compound Continental Risk of Multiple Extreme Floods in the United States

Abstract Understanding spatially correlated floods and modeling joint hazard associated with threshold exceedances across multiple locations is crucial for accurate estimation of continental‐scale portfolio risk. This work uses a non‐parametric copula‐based spatial simulator to analyze peak floods across the United States to derive the first‐of‐its‐kind continental portfolio risk estimates at the 10‐ and 100‐year return levels. We find significant interdependence in floods across the nation, revealing the recurring pattern of extreme events affecting the Northeast, Central, West, and Northwest United States in the same year. The stochastic simulator effectively manages high‐dimensional data and offers reliable uncertainty estimates for both spatially dependent floods and the aggregated flood losses at the continental level. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are identified as statistically significant tele‐connectors of aggregate loss. This research aims to advance the understanding of compound continental flood hazard and the potential large‐scale climate teleconnections that lead to such compound floods.

Geology↗

Modeling Spatial Asymmetries in Teleconnected Extreme Temperatures

Abstract Combining strengths from deep learning and extreme value theory can help describe complex relationships between variables where extreme events have significant impacts (e.g., environmental or financial applications). Neural networks learn complicated nonlinear relationships from large datasets under limited parametric assumptions. By definition, the number of occurrences of extreme events is small, which limits the ability of the data-hungry, nonparametric neural network to describe rare events. Inspired by recent extreme cold winter weather events in North America caused by atmospheric blocking, we examine several probabilistic generative models for the entire multivariate probability distribution of daily boreal winter surface air temperature. We propose metrics to measure spatial asymmetries, such as long-range anticorrelated patterns that commonly appear in temperature fields during blocking events. Compared to vine copulas, the statistical standard for multivariate copula modeling, deep learning methods show improved ability to reproduce complicated asymmetries in the spatial distribution of ERA5 temperature reanalysis, including the spatial extent of in-sample extreme events.

Krock, Mitchell L.↗

Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium

Regional droughts are common in North America, but pan-continental droughts extending across multiple regions, including the 2012 event, are rare relative to single-region events. Here, the tree-ring-derived North American Drought Atlas is used to investigate drought variability in four regions over the last millennium, focusing on pan-continental droughts. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains (CP), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE) regions experienced drier conditions and increased occurrence of droughts and the Northwest (NW) experienced several extended pluvials. Enhanced MCA aridity in the SW and CP manifested as multidecadal megadroughts. Notably, megadroughts in these regions differed in their timing and persistence, suggesting that they represent regional events influenced by local dynamics rather than a unified, continental-scale phenomena. There is no trend in pan-continental drought occurrence, defined as synchronous droughts in three or more regions. SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts are the most common, occurring in 12 percent of all years and peaking in prevalence during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries; patterns involving three other regions occur in about 8 percent of years. Positive values of the Southern Oscillation index (La Nina conditions) are linked to SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts and SW, CP, and NW (SW+CP+NW) droughts, whereas CP, NW, and SE (CP+NW+SE) droughts are associated with positive values of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. While relatively rare, pan-continental droughts are present in the paleo record and are linked to defined modes of climate variability, implying the potential for seasonal predictability. Assuming stable drought teleconnections, these events will remain an important feature of future North American hydroclimate, possibly increasing in their severity in step with other expected hydroclimate responses to increased greenhouse gas forcing.

anomalies↗

Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño Event

Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14–81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5–28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.

El Nino↗

Decadal Changes in the Antarctic Sea Ice Response to the Changing ENSO in the Last Four Decades

Sea ice fraction (SIF) over the Ross/Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea (RAB) are investigated using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 (MERRA-2), focusing on the differences in time-lagged response to ENSO between the late 20th (1980–2000, L20) and the early 21st century (2001–2021, E21). The findings suggest that the typical Antarctic response to ENSO is influenced by changes in ENSO type/intensity, highlighting the need for caution when investigating the Antarctic teleconnection. Time-lagged regressions onto the mature phase of El Niño reveal that the SIF decrease and SST increase over the RAB is relatively weaker in E21 and most pronounced at 0–4 months lag. Conversely, the SIF in L20 continues to decline and reaches its peak at two-season lag (5–7 months). Tropospheric wind, pressure, and wave activity in response to El Niño in L20 show a zonally oriented high/low-pressure areas with two-season lag, enhancing the poleward flow that plays a key role in sea ice melt in the RAB, while this pattern in E21 is insignificant at the same lag. This study suggests that stronger (weaker) and more eastern (central) Pacific ENSOs on average in L20 (E21) are associated with this decadal change in the SIF response to ENSO.

Antarctic sea ice↗

Arctic-associated increased fluctuations of midlatitude winter temperature in the 1.5° and 2.0° warmer world

In recent decades, the interior regions of Eurasia and North America have experienced several unprecedentedly cold winters despite the global surface air temperature increases. One possible explanation of these increasing extreme cold winters comes from the so-called Warm Arctic Cold Continent (WACC) pattern, reflecting the effects of the amplified Arctic warming in driving the circulation change over surrounding continents. This study analyzed reanalysis data and model experiments forced by different levels of anthropogenic forcing. It is found that WACC exists on synoptic scales in observations, model’s historical and even future runs. In the future, the analysis suggests a continued presence of WACC but with a slightly weakened cold extreme due to the overall warming. Warm Arctic events under the warmer climate will be associated with not only a colder continent in East Asia but also a warmer continent, depending on the teleconnection process that is also complicated by the warmer Arctic. Such an increasingly association suggests a reduction in potential predictability of the midlatitude winter anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

Lau, William K. M.↗